Cruz vs Beto

[Ghost of LL 15698]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That's because Beto knows if he's going to win, he has to turn out non-voters.  People who don't traditionally vote in midterms and people who don't vote period. And it's a great strategy because -

1. Texas has abysmal voter participation rates.  Texas was 47/50 in 2016, with 55% participation.  National average was 61%.  It was 53.8% in 2012.  And, oh yeah, Texas was DEAD LAST in participation in 2010 and 2014 midterms.

2. Texas has abysmal voter registration rates. 44/50 with 68% of eligible citizens registered. Only 48% of Texans aged 18-24 are registered, which is well below that age group's national average (55%).

Which is exactly how the Texas GOP wants it.  To that end, they've made it difficult to register voters, and difficult for registered voters to vote.  They know theirs is a minority party, and they intend to keep a minority party in power as long as possible.  It's anti-democratic in the extreme.  But that's the modern GOP.

[Js1 87182]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Which is exactly how the Texas GOP wants it.  To that end, they've made it difficult to register voters, and difficult for registered voters to vote.  They know theirs is a minority party, and they intend to keep a minority party in power as long as possible.  It's anti-democratic in the extreme.  But that's the modern GOP.

Yup. I had to be deputized 2 different times. 2008 in Travis County and 2012 in Harris County. Just to register people to vote.

[Viper 12219]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Which is exactly how the Texas GOP wants it.  To that end, they've made it difficult to register voters, and difficult for registered voters to vote.  They know theirs is a minority party, and they intend to keep a minority party in power as long as possible.  It's anti-democratic in the extreme.  But that's the modern GOP.

What are other states like? I don't remember having any trouble voting or registering before. I think the locations can get tricky if you don't do early voting because not everyone realizes that election day locations are sometimes different than early voting locations so everyone shows up to the early voting location they've seen packed voting signs for the last week.

[Ghost of LL 15698]

1 minute ago, Viper said:

What are other states like? I don't remember having any trouble voting or registering before. I think the locations can get tricky if you don't do early voting because not everyone realizes that election day locations are sometimes different than early voting locations so everyone shows up to the early voting location they've seen packed voting signs for the last week.

We don't register kids in high school automatically, which is common and is the subject of ongoing federal litigation.  What we do is make it has hard as possible to become "deputized" to register voters.  You have to take a 6-hour (?) class and go through a bunch of other shit just to be able to sign people up.  That means that campaigns generally cannot rely solely on volunteers to register voters--they have to use paid workers who are already certified.  That drains campaign cash and limits the number of people who get registered.

And that shit all has to be done 30 days before an election.  For some reason, we won't let people register 29 days before an election.  It makes no sense, since we have voter id--if you have to produce an id at the polling place, why do you need to be registered ahead of time?

Other states have same-day registration.  Produce your drivers' license and sign an affidavit saying you live at that address, and you're registered.  There's no practical reason we don't do that here; we just don't do it because it would increase turnout.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

16 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Which is exactly how the Texas GOP wants it.  To that end, they've made it difficult to register voters, and difficult for registered voters to vote.  They know theirs is a minority party, and they intend to keep a minority party in power as long as possible.  It's anti-democratic in the extreme.  But that's the modern GOP.

How hard is it now?  IIRC, when I was at UT in the 90s, it was just a simple form, and plenty of people would canvass to get people registered.

In NY, its still that easy, if not easier.  Its also offered as an add-on when doing other state or city registrations/renewals.  No same day registration though.

Edited July 12, 2018 by FondrenRoad

[Js1 87182]

Also no online registration.  You can pre-fill the application out online or when renewing your driver's license, but then you have to mail in the registration.

It's fucking 2018, come on!

[GreenspointTexas 9969]

He needs to do name recognition stuff now.  Just buy a dozen billboards in every major city that just say BETO.  

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FondrenRoad 4378]

I want to see them play 1 on 1.  Still can't believe Kimmel lost to Cruz.

[mycox 587]

15 hours ago, RayDog said:

The Texas Tribune article says that Cruz raised $4 million over the same period and has $10 million on hand to Beto's $14 million.

WASHINGTON – Texas U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke raised more than $10.4 million in the past three months, more than doubling the $4.59 million reported by Republican U.S. Sen Ted Cruz, a former presidential candidate who is defending his Senate seat in November.

O'Rourke, a rare challenger outraising an established incumbent, also enjoys a substantial cash advantage over Cruz, who still leads in the polls. O'Rourke closed out the quarter ending June 30 with more than $14 million in the bank, compared to Cruz's $10.4 million.

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

7 hours ago, Js1 said:

That's because Beto knows if he's going to win, he has to turn out non-voters.  People who don't traditionally vote in midterms and people who don't vote period. And it's a great strategy because -

1. Texas has abysmal voter participation rates.  Texas was 47/50 in 2016, with 55% participation.  National average was 61%.  It was 53.8% in 2012.  And, oh yeah, Texas was DEAD LAST in participation in 2010 and 2014 midterms.

2. Texas has abysmal voter registration rates. 44/50 with 68% of eligible citizens registered. Only 48% of Texans aged 18-24 are registered, which is well below that age group's national average (55%).

Beto needs to plow about 15% of that big money into voter registration.  Get people deputized to register folks.  Blanket the college campuses across the state and register every 18 year old in high school (and the eligible 17 year olds who will be 18 by Election Day).  The March for our Lives kids from Parkland were in Houston recently doing registration for that specifically.

This is what I’ve been preaching. The Texas could already be blue with the current population if voter turnout wasn’t so terrible. Dems don’t need to flip republicans. They need to work on name recognition at the top of the ticket and GOTV. Over time with increased turnout and demographic changes,  not even the absurd voting laws and gerrymandered districts will be enough.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

1 hour ago, Larry T. Spider said:

This is what I’ve been preaching. The Texas could already be blue with the current population if voter turnout wasn’t so terrible. Dems don’t need to flip republicans. They need to work on name recognition at the top of the ticket and GOTV. Over time with increased turnout and demographic changes,  not even the absurd voting laws and gerrymandered districts will be enough.

What voting laws are absurd?  

And what gerrymandering affects statewide races?

[David Dennison 19538]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

What voting laws are absurd?  

And what gerrymandering affects statewide races?

Voter ID laws are absurd.

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

13 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

What voting laws are absurd?  

And what gerrymandering affects statewide races?

Clearly I was talking about elections beyond statewide elections but you knew that...

See the posts above mine for plenty of examples of absurd rules with registering voters and the 30 day rule.

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[horncyclist 1391]

What voting laws are absurd?  
And what gerrymandering affects statewide races?

All do. Non-competitive districts decrease voter turnout.

[Celery Man 21098]

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2018/07/13/lagging-money-chase-sen-ted-cruz-sees-bad-news-bid-fend-rep-beto-orourke

[Gil Bang 26239]

Fuck you Ted 

[pyrohornIII 4846]

He's just as  scared of the truly grass roots movement and the votes it brings as he is the money it is raising. 

 

Just the idea that Beto can raise that kind of funding with small individual donations and not from special interest is something that builds on itself.  More and more people are getting on the bandwagon and that makes old "tough as texas ted" nervous. 

[RayDog 682]

Based on a simple linear extrapolation, which may seriously underestimate things, Beto should expect around $14 million from 300,000 donations in the third quarter. He also regularly draws more than 1000 people to his events, and in larger population areas those should continue to grow to who knows how many. I have never seen of heard of anything like this in my life in a statewide race in a state as large as Texas.

Cruz should be concerned, but I hope Texas republicans keep thinking this election is business as usual for them. 

 

 

[Chico_SA 529]

Beto back in San Antonio for the England/Belgium game tomorrow morning followed by his campaign office opening at 2pm and a party at Rosedale Park at 5:30. The guy is everywhere. 

 

[Celery Man 21098]

My fiancee, who was a "it's all bullshit there's no point either way" as of a few months ago and didn't even want me to put a yard sign out is now all riled up.  Apparently we're going to San Antonio tomorrow.

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

3 hours ago, Celery Man said:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2018/07/13/lagging-money-chase-sen-ted-cruz-sees-bad-news-bid-fend-rep-beto-orourke

Fucking pathetic scare tactics. BUT you knew that’s were they would go if they were worried about this race. The death throes of the far right wing of Texas politics will be entertaining to watch when they finally come. 

“Dear Old White Conservative who loves Jesus and America, we implore you to give us money so that the dirty Mexican devil worshipers who want to kill babies and steal your hard earned money will be kept at bay a moment longer* Many have been heard saying that Texas will soon be part of Mexico so that MS13 can rape old white church ladies.”

* we will need money again soon

[texas08 1599]

WE WILL LOSE EVERYTHING!!!!!!


DO SOMETHING!!!!!

Text book trumpism.


The GOP really is done. Why anyone supports those jackasses is beyond comprehension.

Remember, Cruz sucked Cambridge Analyticas cock to help him manipulate folks...and he’s also easily bought, he likes to sell your private data.

This dude is done.

[texas08 1599]

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2018/07/13/lagging-money-chase-sen-ted-cruz-sees-bad-news-bid-fend-rep-beto-orourke

Donation sent!!!!



























To Beto!

[RayDog 682]

Beto is on pace to bring in over $40 million dollars during his senate campaign, since he is already over $23 million and should hit $37 million around the end of September. I decided to look at recent spending history in senate races to see how that compares and I only found one candidate who spent more, and that was Linda McMahon. But she was spending over $40 million of her own money both times in a losing effort.

My search was not exhaustive, so perhaps Beto is not on a record pace for a candidate who is not self-funded but he is up there.

I am curious how much the ftedcruz PAC has brought in, but have not seen a report yet.

[Chuckie Finster 23072]

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2018/07/13/lagging-money-chase-sen-ted-cruz-sees-bad-news-bid-fend-rep-beto-orourke

This is an email written by someone terrified.

[RayDog 682]

5 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 

This is an email written by someone terrified.

 

I don't know. I see stuff like that from Democrats all the time. 

Of course the are terrified of Trump's policies so being terrified is more understandable.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13730]

On 7/11/2018 at 10:58 PM, hayden_horn said:

The name isn't enough. Everyone knew who wendy Davis was. Beto needs a message along with the name. He needs good marketing. He needs a slogan. I'm probably not smart enough to think of it, but he now needs to move beyond name into a real message beyond "I'm not Cruz I care." 

He wins with a message. He loses with name only. 

Wendy Davis’ name recognition peaked with her filibuster not when  running for governor.  By the time she ran for governor, few thought she had a chance.  Many didn’t even know she was in the race.

if Beto can keep the momentum thru November, he might win.  Cruz still has the gop straight ticket behind him and that will not be easy to overcome.  And the mailer above is effective.  Cruz won’t get votes because people like him or trump, he will get votes because Beto will “confiscate guns, ban religion, and legally force all children to be transgender.”

im impressed by the army of Beto supporters walking neighborhoods. I’m sure they have plenty of doors being shut in their faces but it’s all about building awareness and ultimately converting some of them to Beto.   Convincing non voters and infrequently converting a cruz voter can make a difference.  Should be an exciting fall race.

[Anastasis 23718]

8 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Fuck you Ted 

[pyrohornIII 4846]

Are the republicans used to donating in grassroots situations, or do they do it mainly through organized fundraisers like rubber chicken dinners?  Or are they accustomed to large corporations and businesses bankrolling the campaigns for their candidates?   

Seems to me the red party has fostered a feeling of "what is mine is mine" mentality.  You worked hard for that nest egg, we think you should arm yourself so you can defend yourself when others come to take your stuff.   I know a LOT of people of this mindset.  So the question there is how willing are they to donate, or will they not contribute, expecting corporate and special interest PACs to step up?   I mean they have built their party on being selfish.  Now they are asking for money. 

Lastly, it seems that a lot of that base is not as prosperous as they project they are.   

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13730]

I just checked out Beto's facebook page for the first time.  He appeared to be live streaming while driving into San Antonio and chatting with the others in the car.  Only a few hundred people watching but that's a great move by someone that is personable.  I doubt the few hundred people were Cruz voters that are open to flip, but that video costs Beto nothing but strengthens his appeal to his supporters.    It also may convince a few more people to show up at his rally.  Seems like a great marketing idea.

Frequent live stream videos are the natural progression from the Trump tweets.  Do you want to read a tweet or watch the politician hold an hourly video message to his/her supporters.  I'm actually surprised that Trump doesn't produce more videos.  

[Post Oak 20565]

9 hours ago, Celery Man said:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2018/07/13/lagging-money-chase-sen-ted-cruz-sees-bad-news-bid-fend-rep-beto-orourke

Here's one thing i know for sure.  When someone addresses me as "Friend" they are not actually my friend.  When someone says "its ya boy..." they are most assuredly not my boy

[pyrohornIII 4846]

21 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I just checked out Beto's facebook page for the first time.  He appeared to be live streaming while driving into San Antonio and chatting with the others in the car.  Only a few hundred people watching but that's a great move by someone that is personable.  I doubt the few hundred people were Cruz voters that are open to flip, but that video costs Beto nothing but strengthens his appeal to his supporters.    It also may convince a few more people to show up at his rally.  Seems like a great marketing idea.

Frequent live stream videos are the natural progression from the Trump tweets.  Do you want to read a tweet or watch the politician hold an hourly video message to his/her supporters.  I'm actually surprised that Trump doesn't produce more videos.  

Strengthens his appeal while keeping his base energized and engaged.  It makes them feel part of the team, not just a number.    You have to continue to dance with who brung you, or they go home.  He's pretty savvy on all this...and has brought on some really good people to help.  Beats the fuck out of hiring CA to manipulate minds surreptitiously.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13730]

8 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

Strengthens his appeal while keeping his base energized and engaged.  It makes them feel part of the team, not just a number.    You have to continue to dance with who brung you, or they go home.  He's pretty savvy on all this...and has brought on some really good people to help.  Beats the fuck out of hiring CA to manipulate minds surreptitiously.

 

It will be interesting to see if Cruz's only reaction can be to scare his supporters.  As everyone agrees, Cruz's strength isn't being personable and he comes off looking worse when he tries.  He can't look to jump on Facebook Live showing how cool he is, or hanging with the young supporters.     

I will give Cruz credit that from time to time, he does stand up against the prevailing GOP winds.  He stood up against Trump for a short while but was convinced to stop it.  And he recently said that voters should go with the Democrat in that congressional race where the GOP guy is actually a Nazi.  The last one isn't a big stretch and the Nazi has zero chance of winning, but there are many GOP politicians would never say to vote Democrat.  Now his problem is that he backs down from time to time which can be worse because you've now pissed off everyone at some point.

[Celery Man 21098]

Yeah, part of why Beto's Facebook live strategy is great is because he's charismatic and likable.  

I wouldn't go as negative as describe the republican base as being motivated out of selfishness, but I do think it is interesting how the... mah tax dollars, libruls sucking the government teet, taking my hard earned money, etc resonates seemingly equally with people who don't have a pot to piss in as it does with more Johnny Sack types.  My fiancee family is very blue collar (to be generous) and there are a few big MAGA types from there in my Facebook feed.  One of them (drives a bread truck) is actually going to vote for Beto because mary jane (and was a Bernie supporter),  but the other one I know fairly well who constantly shit posts about liberals and anti-trumpes drives uber and lives with his mom in his late 40s.  I think with him it's more of an identity thing - grew up in Austin, priced out of Austin, hates tech hipsters, is definitely not them, and "maybe if not for them and Obama, then I..."

[atomheartbevo 90645]

4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It will be interesting to see if Cruz's only reaction can be to scare his supporters.  As everyone agrees, Cruz's strength isn't being personable and he comes off looking worse when he tries.  He can't look to jump on Facebook Live showing how cool he is, or hanging with the young supporters.     

I will give Cruz credit that from time to time, he does stand up against the prevailing GOP winds.  He stood up against Trump for a short while but was convinced to stop it.  And he recently said that voters should go with the Democrat in that congressional race where the GOP guy is actually a Nazi.  The last one isn't a big stretch and the Nazi has zero chance of winning, but there are many GOP politicians would never say to vote Democrat.  Now his problem is that he backs down from time to time which can be worse because you've now pissed off everyone at some point.

[tantric superman 4668]

"Ted's opponent already say...."  What?

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Mojo Hand 4580]

6 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It will be interesting to see if Cruz's only reaction can be to scare his supporters.  As everyone agrees, Cruz's strength isn't being personable and he comes off looking worse when he tries.  He can't look to jump on Facebook Live showing how cool he is, or hanging with the young supporters.     

I will give Cruz credit that from time to time, he does stand up against the prevailing GOP winds.  He stood up against Trump for a short while but was convinced to stop it.  And he recently said that voters should go with the Democrat in that congressional race where the GOP guy is actually a Nazi.  The last one isn't a big stretch and the Nazi has zero chance of winning, but there are many GOP politicians would never say to vote Democrat.  Now his problem is that he backs down from time to time which can be worse because you've now pissed off everyone at some point.

He only "stands up against the prevailing GOP winds" when he thinks it is in the interest of his career to do so.  Everyone remembers his brief, vague sort-of-opposition to Trump at the convention, when he was trying to position himself for 2020, but many forget that Cruz was one of the only GOP candidates who, as a conservative, vouched for Trump from early on in the primaries.   Seriously, look up the early quotes — while the other GOP candidates were attacking Trump, Cruz defended him, as part of a cynical plan to use Trump to knock out Cruz's conservative competitors so that Cruz would be the last one standing.   And it worked; Cruz was just unable to beat Trump one on one.   There's a good chance Trump never wins the primary if Cruz united with the other GOP candidates in delegitimizing Trump early on.  

Edit:  found this early timeline:

Quote

 

June 30: Cruz first defends Trump's comments on Mexicans after Univision and NBC cut ties with the real estate mogul. "I like Donald Trump. I think he's terrific," Cruz says on Fox News. "I think he's brash. I think he speaks the truth." Cruz accuses NBC of engaging in "silly" and "wrong" political correctness.

July 3: Cruz salutes Trump for bringing up illegal immigration and says he's not "going to engage in the media's game of throwing rocks and attacking other Republicans."

July 15: Cruz and Trump meet at Trump Tower in New York. "Ted Cruz called me," Trump tells MSNBC. "And I don't know why I'm meeting him, to be honest, but I do have respect for him." At the meeting, Cruz invites Trump to tour the U.S.-Mexico border later that month.

July 23: Trump visits the border in Laredo, Tex. Cruz can't make it because of Senate votes.

Aug. 10: Cruz tells Politico it is "foolish" for other candidates to criticize Trump. Cruz suggests he is buddying up to Trump in an effort to gain the businessman's supporters.

Aug. 19: Trump mentions Cruz as a possible running mate. "I like Ted Cruz. I like Dr. [Ben] Carson. They've been very supportive of me," Trump tells NH1.

Aug. 27: Trump announces that he and Cruz are planning a joint appearance at a Capitol Hill rally against the Iran nuclear deal. "We are talking to Ted Cruz, who is a friend of mine and a good guy, about doing something very big over the next two weeks in Washington," Trump says.

Aug. 29: Cruz tells WYFF that Trump talking about immigration has helped his own campaign, garnering the Texas Republican "incredible support."

Sept. 9: The two men attend a rally against the Iran nuclear deal on Capitol Hill. "It is a bit of a romance," Trump tells CNN. "I like him, he likes me." He tells ABC News that Cruz's birthplace has been checked out by lawyers, and Cruz is in "fine shape" to run for president. Cruz calls Trump a friend and says he "brings an army of TV reporters" to events.

Oct. 12: Cruz tells a crowd in Fort Dodge, Iowa, the main reason he is "grateful" Trump is in the race. "He has framed the central narrative of this Republican primary as who will stand up to Washington. Now, if that's the central question, the natural next question is who has stood up to Washington," Cruz says. "And I've gotta tell you, I cannot decide a better question to decide this primary than that question right there."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/01/27/a-timeline-of-how-the-trump-cruz-relationship-went-from-nice-to-nasty/

 

Edited July 14, 2018 by Mojo Hand

[Horn Dog 10158]

7 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm actually surprised that Trump doesn't produce more videos.  

Its really really hard to pull off live stream from the shitter, but it would not surprise me one bit.

[Bozo_Casanova 26850]

Yeah, part of why Beto's Facebook live strategy is great is because he's charismatic and likable.  
I wouldn't go as negative as describe the republican base as being motivated out of selfishness, but I do think it is interesting how the... mah tax dollars, libruls sucking the government teet, taking my hard earned money, etc resonates seemingly equally with people who don't have a pot to piss in as it does with more Johnny Sack types.  My fiancee family is very blue collar (to be generous) and there are a few big MAGA types from there in my Facebook feed.  One of them (drives a bread truck) is actually going to vote for Beto because mary jane (and was a Bernie supporter),  but the other one I know fairly well who constantly shit posts about liberals and anti-trumpes drives uber and lives with his mom in his late 40s.  I think with him it's more of an identity thing - grew up in Austin, priced out of Austin, hates tech hipsters, is definitely not them, and "maybe if not for them and Obama, then I..."

Interesting. I’m up in Dallas today and seeing a lot of Beto signs in the Park Cities.

I’ve seen zero Cruz signs.

[tantric superman 4668]

More interested in how many mestizos you see on voting day.

[RPM 26627]

Got texted today asking how I would vote. Free Beto bumper sticker otw.

[Zepol87 9341]

He will be at four corners brewery Thursday night in Dallas. I'll be there

[Brisketexan 106891]

Our sign and t shirts were here waiting for us when we got back to the house after vacation. We’re in.

[Celery Man 21098]

 

 

 

 

He's really good at this.  He'll probably lose, but if he wins, it will be interesting to see what he does.

 

[Longhorn94 2501]

that mofo is gonna win...

[Michael Knight 13217]

All betos are off if he wins

[yaqdum 182]

29 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

All betos are off if he wins

i'll beto off either way.

[Post Oak 20565]

15 hours ago, Horn Dog said:

Its really really hard to pull off live stream from the shitter, but it would not surprise me one bit.

someone on Surly has experience with poop videos