Cruz vs Beto

[David Dennison 18656]

Just now, Johnny Sack said:

Huh?

You could already confirm judges.

You didn't win any more power tonight. You lost power.

[Victor Lazlo 1764]

32 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Trump cost Republicans the House.

Nah, history cost Republicans the House. It happens every mid term.

But you knew that already.

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

I don’t think it caused McCaskill, Donelly, nor Heitkamp to lose.

It may have caused a half percent larger margin but since they lost by 6%, 9%, and 11% respectively the Kavanaugh wasn’t a measurable factor.

It didn’t matter for Heller either. He lost by 7%.

Exit polls showed the important issues for voters were -

1 - Health Care - 41%
2 - Immigration - 23%
3 - Economy - 21%
4 - Gun Policy - 11%

Exit polls showed showed voters opposed Kavanaugh’s confirmation by a 48% to 43% margin. Only 50% of men supported his confirmation and only 37% of women supported his confirmation.

So, no. I don’t think the Kavanaugh mess influenced the senate results and the numbers back me up.

But I understand it’s hard for you to not let your emotions overcome rational thinking and facts.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

2 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

I don’t think it caused McCaskill, Donelly, nor Heitkamp to lose.

It may have caused a half percent larger margin but since they lost by 6%, 9%, and 11% respectively the Kavanaugh wasn’t a measurable factor.

It didn’t matter for Heller either. He lost by 7%.

Exit polls showed the important issues for voters were -

1 - Health Care - 41%
2 - Immigration - 23%
3 - Economy - 21%
4 - Gun Policy - 11%

Exit polls showed showed voters opposed Kavanaugh’s confirmation by a 48% to 43% margin. Only 50% of men supported his confirmation and only 37% of women supported his confirmation.

So, no. I don’t think the Kavanaugh mess influenced the senate results and the numbers back me up.

But I understand it’s hard for you to not let your emotions overcome rational thinking and facts.

 Kav issue hurt dems in all sorts of key senate races by firing up people who otherwise weren’t going to vote.  

[David Dennison 18656]

10 minutes ago, Victor Lazlo said:

Nah, history cost Republicans the House. It happens every mid term.

But you knew that already.

 

The president's party losing seats happens every mid-term. Losing control of one or two chambers does not.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Bullshit. That was over weeks ago and we have had caravan propaganda, a synagogue shooting, mail bombs, and 87 other garbage issues consume the news cycle since.

 

Kavanaugh didn’t translate to 6%, 9%, and 11% margins of victories in the races where Democrat senators in red state voted against Kavanaugh.

 

Bring some facts and numbers to the table. Not your Hannity fueled fever dream conspiracy theories.

 

[Victor Lazlo 1764]

19 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

The president's party losing seats happens every mid-term. Losing control of one or two chambers does not.

I know you’re smarter than that, so I’ll refrain from calling you a dumbass. 

The party of the incumbent president tends to lose ground during midterm elections: over the past 21 midterm elections, the President's party has lost an average 30 seats in the House, and an average four seats in the Senate

[CooterBrown 17907]

Don’t have a particular attitude towards California. I was simply stating that California, like Austin, are very liberal.

The shitty parts of CA are pretty conservative just like the shitty parts of TX.

[Bert Orange 1115]

10 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

 

The shitty parts of CA are pretty conservative just like the shitty parts of TX.

 

So you are calling Texas people, not areas shitty. Because that would otherwise mean you are calling border towns great and Galveston shitty. 

[Enchubben 5509]

7 hours ago, Captainant said:

nobody on here is butthurt about Beto losing lol. Sad, sure. But we're all taking the loss, my dude. God, you even gloat like aggy.

Yea you haven’t been paying attention have you.

7 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I really don't understand it because California and Texas are actually a lot alike: powerful, diverse economies, large immigrant populations, and diverse populations spread across both urban and rural areas. 

https://www.hiddendominion.com/50-reasons-why-california-sucks/

7 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

lulz

Spends the whole thread talking shit about Democrats and cheering for Republicans.

Hates cops and wants prostitution and marijuana legal in Texas.

You crack me up.

I can’t speak for him but being ok with legalization of things like weed and hookers doesn’t make you an automatic Democrat or libertarian. I’d be ok with both as a conservative and I still support republicans because of other political viewpoints even though a guy like Cruz would never support those types of reform.

 

[Bookman 4610]

4 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

 Kav issue hurt dems in all sorts of key senate races by firing up people who otherwise weren’t going to vote.  

Why do you think they otherwise weren't going to vote?

[Bookman 4610]

14 minutes ago, Bert Orange said:

So you are calling Texas people, not areas shitty. Because that would otherwise mean you are calling border towns great and Galveston shitty. 

Galveston's no Roma but don't pretend that Galveston isn't shitty.

[Enchubben 5509]

23 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

 

The shitty parts of CA are pretty conservative just like the shitty parts of TX.

 

Teetering on the deplorable comment, just go ahead and say it.

[Bert Orange 1115]

1 minute ago, Bookman said:

Galveston's no Roma but don't pretend that Galveston isn't shitty.

I grew up in Harlingen and spent a lot of time in the RGV. Not sure what you are implying about it’s wonderment, but you have mischaracterized. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21061]

Sigh, Texas gonna Texas.  Congrats fellow Texans, we have a Canadian Cuckold representing us for 6 more years. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13412]

If anyone had said Beto would get >4m votes, even Ted would have put money on Beto.    But losing but 1 vote or 1m is still a loss.  

[Bookman 4610]

I didn't say anything about Harlingen or the Rio Grande Valley in general.

[Bert Orange 1115]

Yes, yes in fact you did. And did so generally. It votes democratic. So it isn’t shitty, according to you. 

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

4 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

 Kav issue hurt dems in all sorts of key senate races by firing up people who otherwise weren’t going to vote.  

Good point. You can count on caravan fear mongering to get out the bigot vote, but it's hard to figure out what issue will get out the misogynist vote. Kav was a god send in that regard for the Republicans.

[immortal13 4059]

4 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Bullshit. That was over weeks ago and we have had caravan propaganda, a synagogue shooting, mail bombs, and 87 other garbage issues consume the news cycle since.

 

Kavanaugh didn’t translate to 6%, 9%, and 11% margins of victories in the races where Democrat senators in red state voted against Kavanaugh.

 

Bring some facts and numbers to the table. Not your Hannity fueled fever dream conspiracy theories.

 

You seem angry and bitter

[immortal13 4059]

1 hour ago, Enchubben said:

Yea you haven’t been paying attention have you.

https://www.hiddendominion.com/50-reasons-why-california-sucks/

I can’t speak for him but being ok with legalization of things like weed and hookers doesn’t make you an automatic Democrat or libertarian. I’d be ok with both as a conservative and I still support republicans because of other political viewpoints even though a guy like Cruz would never support those types of reform.

 

This is the logic the libs can't understand, or rather it doesn't fit their narrative.

[CooterBrown 17907]

So you are calling Texas people, not areas shitty. Because that would otherwise mean you are calling border towns great and Galveston shitty. 

As a 7th generation Texan, yes, a huge amount of Texans are shitty, just like any other cohort. If being Texan was something that mattered a lot, then you would’ve went for the native Texan and not a Canadian carpetbagger.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

1 minute ago, CooterBrown said:

 

As a 7th generation Texan, yes, a huge amount of Texans are shitty, just like any other cohort. If being Texan was something that mattered a lot, then you would’ve went for the native Texan and not a Canadian carpetbagger.

 

Wait, El Paso is in Texas?

[Pancho 44474]

4 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

 

As a 7th generation Texan, yes, a huge amount of Texans are shitty, just like any other cohort. If being Texan was something that mattered a lot, then you would’ve went for the native Texan and not a Canadian carpetbagger.

 

Deserves to be seen again 

[Cosimo de' Medici 121]

Time to go, master Beto

[immortal13 4059]

Beta

[Pancho 44474]

8 hours ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Because your petulance is funny. Beto lost dude. Your virtue had been signaled. Give it up.

What the fuck are you even talking about.  Yes, I know he lost.  He wasn't going to win and I never predicted that. 

Childish?  Ha, very rich coming from you. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13412]

I would like to hear more about why Texas was called with close to 2m votes remaining.   they were right but why not call the race at 8pm when the precincts closed if they were just going off exit polls.  

[Blotto 23433]

5 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

 Kav issue hurt dems in all sorts of key senate races by firing up people who otherwise weren’t going to vote.  

So somehow you feel Kavanaugh influenced people to vote GOP, but only for Senate seats. House voters apparently don't know about Kavanaugh?

[Js1 85109]

1 minute ago, Blotto said:

So somehow you feel Kavanaugh influenced people to vote GOP, but only for Senate seats. House voters apparently don't know about Kavanaugh?

Actually he’s not totally wrong. Kavanagh didn’t move the needle much with House voters in post-confirmation polls. 

In reality, the states Dem Senators lost were conservative. 2018 Red Firewall was not going to be overcome. The places Democrat House candidates won were night and day different from IN/MO/ND and most of FL

Edited November 7, 2018 by Js1

[Facemask 103]

Going to be great when Trump has to resign because of Mueller and Ted goes back to full time Senator from running for President in Iowa. I'm still a Texan but glad I live in Northern Virginia right now.

Why, because Texas is the greatest state?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[InkaUtexas 25516]

1 minute ago, Facemask said:

Why, because Texas is the greatest state?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

nah, cuz he gets to hang out with Ted at some crappy Pho place in McLean. 

[Blotto 23433]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Actually he’s not totally wrong. Kavanagh didn’t move the needle much with House voters in post-confirmation polls. 

In reality, the states Dem Senators lost were conservative. 2018 Red Firewall was not going to be overcome. The places Democrat House candidates won were night and day different from IN/MO/ND and most of FL

Sorry, I don't see it. Pre Kavanaugh predictions were for the house to go Dem and the Senate to stay GOP. Who's to say the Kavanaugh shitshow didnt inspire women to come out and vote for Beto. It may have effected some voters, but it's not clear to me it had much of an overall effect on anything.

[gmr548 16510]

I would like to hear more about why Texas was called with close to 2m votes remaining.   they were right but why not call the race at 8pm when the precincts closed if they were just going off exit polls.  

It was obvious at that point that there weren't enough votes out of Harris, Dallas, Travis, etc. to push him over the top.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[Js1 85109]

Just now, gmr548 said:

It was obvious at that point that there weren't enough votes out of Harris, Dallas, Travis, etc. to push him over the top.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

These people have a lot more behind the scenes intel than we do/see when it comes to calling races.  That's how some of these races get called as soon as polls close or with 10% of the vote in.  You can usually extrapolate where the votes are and how many.

[threesheets 1652]

32 minutes ago, immortal13 said:

Beta

Holy shit that's clever. 

[DixonHur 11211]

Looking at the exit polls, it's pretty clear why Beto lost...and it's the same ole story...the olds vote, and the young don't.

And since the olds are scared of everything, they tend to vote for the fear mongering party.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13412]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

It was obvious at that point that there weren't enough votes out of Harris, Dallas, Travis, etc. to push him over the top.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

I disagree that it was obvious since the media didn’t know how many votes were remaining from those counties.  Harris had only reported early and Dallas a few precincts.  

and since the media originally predicted ~6m total votes, then raised it to 7.1m prior to the election and it ended up being ~8.2m, they showed that they can’t predict voter turnout in Texas.   

[Js1 85109]

2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Looking at the exit polls, it's pretty clear why Beto lost...and it's the same ole story...the olds vote, and the young don't.

And since the olds are scared of everything, they tend to vote for the fear mongering party.

Old voted, young don't.

White people (especially white women) continue to suckle at the GOP's tit for all eternity.

[tantric superman 4667]

9 hours ago, pearlandhorn said:

You really make this even more sweet. You actually think your opinion is important to a candidate who doesn’t give a flying fuck about you. Enjoy your moral victory while I wash my hands of this evening.

I'm not addressing this to anyone buy you, asshole.  I'm only enjoying the fact that all three folks I campaigned for won.  I'm kinda of enjoying that you came here to grouse, exposed yourself to be a moron, and with this post promising to slink off like a bitch.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10145]

1 hour ago, Bookman said:

Why do you think they otherwise weren't going to vote?

Have plenty of friends that could care less about the election, pretty indifferent, but after the Kavanaugh spectacle got tired of basically being called the party of rapists and womanizers.

The attacks pissed them off enough to basically do a "I'll show you" response.   I strongly feel Beto would have squeaked by without the Kavanaugh shit show.

[tantric superman 4667]

3 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Looking at the exit polls, it's pretty clear why Beto lost...and it's the same ole story...the olds vote, and the young don't.

And since the olds are scared of everything, they tend to vote for the fear mongering party.

The immigration issue was important.  At least now that the election is over we can man up and head down to the border to face the caravan.  What, it has to be up to 100K by now, no?

[pyrohornIII 4809]

3 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Have plenty of friends that could care less about the election, pretty indifferent, but after the Kavanaugh spectacle got tired of basically being called the party of rapists and womanizers.

The attacks pissed them off enough to basically do a "I'll show you" response.   I strongly feel Beto would have squeaked by without the Kavanaugh shit show.

The sad part of that is that Kavanaugh should have been thoroughly investigated not only on the assault accusations but also the financials.  He wasn't.  Thanks to Trump and Trump alone.  If a real investigation would have been conducted, things might have turned out different for BK and thus the senate races.  Whole lot of "squirrel" diversions went on in all that, while the major issues swept right by, like a sailboat in the dark. 

[Js1 85109]

7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I disagree that it was obvious since the media didn’t know how many votes were remaining from those counties.  Harris had only reported early and Dallas a few precincts.  

and since the media originally predicted ~6m total votes, then raised it to 7.1m prior to the election and it ended up being ~8.2m, they showed that they can’t predict voter turnout in Texas.   

Even with the 2mm outstanding, it was pretty clear that Beto was underperforming in a lot of places he needed to keep close or win. He underperformed Hillary out in the boonies (or Cruz overperformed) - further showing that the urban/suburban and rural divide is not going away anytime soon.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10145]

Just now, pyrohornIII said:

The sad part of that is that Kavanaugh should have been thoroughly investigated not only on the assault accusations but also the financials.  He wasn't.  Thanks to Trump and Trump alone.  If a real investigation would have been conducted, things might have turned out different for BK and thus the senate races.  Whole lot of "squirrel" diversions went on in all that, while the major issues swept right by, like a sailboat in the dark. 

The problem with the left is they are treating Trump like the hand picked candidate the right chose. He's the "anyone but Hillary" placeholder President that will be voted out likely by his own party in 2020 unless they keep going after him and make him a right wing martyr.  That happens and not only will they have completely screwed up the 2016 election but will unbelievably done even worse by screwing up 2020.  

[Pancho 44474]

3 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

The problem with the left is they are treating Trump like the hand picked candidate the right chose. He's the "anyone but Hillary" placeholder President that will be voted out likely by his own party in 2020 unless they keep going after him and make him a right wing martyr.  That happens and not only will they have completely screwed up the 2016 election but will unbelievably done even worse by screwing up 2020.  

wut.

Trump was definitely hand picked by those on the right.  He will run again (and win) in 2020 too, unless he quits. 

Not sure what you're trying to argue here, but your reply is trying to demean the left while showing you support the right but you don't want to admit that you like trump. 

 

[pyrohornIII 4809]

23 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Old voted, young don't.

White people (especially white women) continue to suckle at the GOP's tit for all eternity.

I think the white women are leaving the big red tent. 

Quote

Not all of them have abandoned him, for sure. The angry old men are still there, screaming their insults at immigrants, the media and anyone else who isn’t an angry old man.

But all those white women – the people he called a majority of women (because the rest of them don’t count to him) – they just ran for the doors that say Trexit.

The exit polls gave Democrats a massive 21-point advantage among women, while Republicans scored just a two-point lead among men. White women split 50-48 for the anti-Trump movement known as Democrats. The only age group that Republicans won were 65 and older – and that was only by one point.

Just two years ago, in those same exit polls, white women gave Trump a nine-point lead over the first woman to hold a major party’s presidential nomination. Married women were pretty divided in 2016, but leaned heavily towards Democrats on Tuesday.

The 2018 election was a story of suburban white female flight away from Trump, shifting a Texas statewide race into nail-biting territory for the first time in more than two decades. You don’t need to be a political consultant to know what a competitive Texas means for the presidential contest that begins almost immediately.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/07/trump-unchecked-power-end-midterms

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

30 minutes ago, Js1 said:

(especially white women) continue to suckle at the GOP's tit for all eternity.

This is the real head scratcher.  I mean, I know people are dumb enough to vote against their own interests but one party moves towards the Handmaid’s Tale and the other says fuck that shit. 

Come on ladies, get your shit together.

Edited November 7, 2018 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Guest Lobo]

Fun fact, in 2008 Noriega spent about $4.0mm to get about 3.4mm votes (IMO, the most successful D statewide run in the last 15 years)

Robert O'Rourke spent about $70.0mm to get about 4.0mm votes.

$66.0mm spent to get another 600,000 votes.  $110,000/vote.  

Da fuh?  

[GRHorn 105]

A lot of solemn walks out to the yard to pull the Beto signs this morning.