Cruz vs Beto

[NowThis 931]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This is the real head scratcher.  I mean, I know people are dumb enough to vote against their own interests but one party moves towards the Handmaid’s Tale and the other says fuck that shit. 

I mean, come on ladies, get your shit together.

it's all ethnically driven, fear of the coloreds, gender isn't that big of a factor in Texas. It came down to soft on immigration. I cringed at the negative ads because that really was a home run for Cruz here in TX. Beto's ideology would be excellent in New England/NY.  It's a combination of a lot of factors, but white women in TX are not that much different than the guys they share the bed.

[safe sex 11678]

3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This is the real head scratcher.  I mean, I know people are dumb enough to vote against their own interests but one party moves towards the Handmaid’s Tale and the other says fuck that shit. 

Come on ladies, get your shit together.

There are plenty of Commander's Wives and compliant Marthas in the Handmaid's Tale. 

[Pancho 44474]

I guess yall think it's cool to make fun of Beto supporters because it makes you feel better?  90% of people didn't have him winning but said it would be close.  It was close. 

What are you gloating about? 

[Fozzz 152]

So in Texas the Ds picked up 3 CDs and 12 state legislative seats?  Beto also looks to have out performed the polling average by 4 points.  Imagine what they could have done had they played nice with Justice Brett.  

[Js1 85109]

1 minute ago, Fozzz said:

So in Texas the Ds picked up 3 CDs and 12 state legislative seats?  Beto also looks to have out performed the polling average by 4 points.  Imagine what they could have done had they played nice with Justice Brett.  

2 Congressional seats (I think? Unsure what's happening with 23 after all that "errors" last night).  12 state House seats and 2 state Senate seats.

Edited November 7, 2018 by Js1

[Pancho 44474]

2 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

  Imagine what they could have done had they played nice with Justice Brett.  

The same thing would have happened. 

[Telegraph_it 3354]

9 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This is the real head scratcher.  I mean, I know people are dumb enough to vote against their own interests but one party moves towards the Handmaid’s Tale and the other says fuck that shit. 

Come on ladies, get your shit together.

Or they do have their shit together and just don't view things like you do. But no, you know what is best for everyone. I am sure. 

[AtticusFinch 155]

9 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

Your mom fled the scene.... of my dick.

She's dead so that's kind of sick but par for you I'm sure.  Carry on.

[GRHorn 105]

7 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This is the real head scratcher.  I mean, I know people are dumb enough to vote against their own interests but one party moves towards the Handmaid’s Tale and the other says fuck that shit. 

Come on ladies, get your shit together.

Quit talking down to women.

I know it’s meant to be hyperbole, but the whole Handmaid’s Tale comp is so over the top it’s ridiculous.

Women are smart enough to realize this.  

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

24 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Have plenty of friends that could care less about the election, pretty indifferent, but after the Kavanaugh spectacle got tired of basically being called the party of rapists and womanizers.

The attacks pissed them off enough to basically do a "I'll show you" response.   I strongly feel Beto would have squeaked by without the Kavanaugh shit show.

Frankly, I'm not seeing a reason for the self righteous indignation that you speak of.

Ford gave credible and compelling testimony and was a sympathetic figure for all observers.  Despite the fact that there was minimal investigation, and that based on that BK had plausible deniability, I really could not fault  anyone for falling on either side of the fence for his nomination-again based solely on Ford's allegations.

However, BK did not acquit himself well in his testimony and revealed some unsympathetic tendencies.

I do not consider his proceedings to be any kind of witch hunt or overreach given the allegations considering the seriousness of the allegations and the fact that this was for a lifetime appointment to the SC. The whole thing ended up being a partisan shit show, but I just don't see how one on the winning side could be emotionally attached to the results.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

1 minute ago, Telegraph_it said:

Or they do have their shit together and just don't view things like you do. But no, you know what is best for everyone. I am sure. 

You must be a white woman

[Fozzz 152]

Just now, Js1 said:

2 Congressional seats (I think? Unsure what's happening with 23 after all that "errors" last night).  12 state House seats and 2 state Senate seats.

Damn, I guess Hurd came back.  Oh well, that fucker will be gone in two years.  Looks like there were 9-10 CDs where Rs won with less than 55%.  2020 could be a bloodbath if things play out right.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10145]

10 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Fun fact, in 2008 Noriega spent about $4.0mm to get about 3.4mm votes (IMO, the most successful D statewide run in the last 15 years)

Robert O'Rourke spent about $70.0mm to get about 4.0mm votes.

$66.0mm spent to get another 600,000 votes.  $110,000/vote.  

Da fuh?  

Where Da Fuh you learn math? (might ask for refund)

[FondrenRoad 4378]

30 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

The problem with the left is they are treating Trump like the hand picked candidate the right chose. He's the "anyone but Hillary" placeholder President that will be voted out likely by his own party in 2020 unless they keep going after him and make him a right wing martyr.  That happens and not only will they have completely screwed up the 2016 election but will unbelievably done even worse by screwing up 2020.  

Assuming Trump doesnt get swept up by Mueller before 2020, which Republican do you think beats him?  He isn't a placeholder. He is the beating heart of your party. He lapped your entire field before he even got to the "but Hillary" part of the election. 

[Js1 85109]

1 minute ago, Fozzz said:

Damn, I guess Hurd came back.  Oh well, that fucker will be gone in two years.  Looks like there were 9-10 CDs where Rs won with less than 55%.  2020 could be a bloodbath if things play out right.

If I'm Pete Olson, I'm freaking out that I may have pulled it off this time, but Fort Bend got bluer in 18 than it was in 16.

[Born to Run 6567]

This is the most alarming aspect of this exit poll.

I mean the whole party ran on repealing the ACA. They are on record. With Votes.
These fuckers will cut Medicare and then run in 2020 on saving Medicare from the Dems and it will work because people are stupid.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10145]

3 minutes ago, Jiggy-Z said:

Frankly, I'm not seeing a reason for the self righteous indignation that you speak of.

Ford gave credible and compelling testimony and was a sympathetic figure for all observers.  Despite the fact that there was minimal investigation, and that based on that BK had plausible deniability, I really could not fault  anyone for falling on either side of the fence for his nomination-again based solely on Ford's allegations.

However, BK did not acquit himself well in his testimony and revealed some unsympathetic tendencies.

I do not consider his proceedings to be any kind of witch hunt or overreach given the allegations considering the seriousness of the allegations and the fact that this was for a lifetime appointment to the SC. The whole thing ended up being a partisan shit show, but I just don't see how one on the winning side could be emotionally attached to the results.

It was the blanket "he's guilty" and you must support sexual assault proclamation before any investigation.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10145]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

If I'm Pete Olson, I'm freaking out that I may have pulled it off this time, but Fort Bend got bluer in 18 than it was in 16.

Fort Bend has moved very sharply more blue in last 2 years.  I see that continuing to grow as well. Missouri City elected "good ole boys" Quail Valley club was actually broken up in this election... never thought I would ever see that

[Telegraph_it 3354]

4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

You must be a white woman

That comes across as if it would be a bad thing... Alas you are wrong about something else. 

[Fozzz 152]

I'm not surprised that the Rs believe the lies of GOP pols, but the fact that 11% of Dems believe Cruz (compared to 3% of Rs believing Beto), is pretty shocking.  Maybe an illustration of the fact that GOP voters are almost entirely ensconced within the right-wing fever swamp while Dems have to put up with the both-sidesism of MSM that allows right-wing propaganda a seat at the table. 

[Pancho 44474]

3 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Fort Bend has moved very sharply more blue in last 2 years.  I see that continuing to grow as well. Missouri City elected "good ole boys" Quail Valley club was actually broken up in this election... never thought I would ever see that

Anyone can answer this really, but why is FB turning blue but Montgomery isn't? 

(I should probably know this answer seeing as how I work in the heart of Trump country up here in nawfwest Harris county.)

[Js1 85109]

2 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

Anyone can answer this really, but why is FB turning blue but Montgomery isn't? 

(I should probably know this answer seeing as how I work in the heart of Trump country up here in nawfwest Harris county.)

Fort Bend is extremely diverse.  A lot of immigrants from India, Pakistan, etc.  Montgomery is way more white.   FB has the highest percentage of Asian-Americans in the southern US.

Montgomery - 83% white, 4% black, 2% Asian

FB - 36% white, 21% black, 17% Asian, 24% Latino

Edited November 7, 2018 by Js1

[Guest Lobo]

15 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Where Da Fuh you learn math? (might ask for refund)

Yeah, whoops.  $110/vote.  Still a lot.  But my maths is not good today, haven't been to bed since last night's Kopser and Ward campaigns.  

[Js1 85109]

17 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Damn, I guess Hurd came back.  Oh well, that fucker will be gone in two years.  Looks like there were 9-10 CDs where Rs won with less than 55%.  2020 could be a bloodbath if things play out right.

Chip Roy +2.8

Olson +5

Marchant +4.4

Sessions and Culberson losing.

GOP should be on their knees praying and thanking Supply Side Jesus.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

17 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

This is the most alarming aspect of this exit poll.

I mean the whole party ran on repealing the ACA. They are on record. With Votes.
These fuckers will cut Medicare and then run in 2020 on saving Medicare from the Dems and it will work because people are stupid.

When you start reading into the exit polling, one thing is clear: perception is reality. Facts are fluid and how you feel is all that matters in how you vote.

[EastTexan 662]

29 minutes ago, NowThis said:

it's all ethnically driven, fear of the coloreds, gender isn't that big of a factor in Texas. It came down to soft on immigration. I cringed at the negative ads because that really was a home run for Cruz here in TX. Beto's ideology would be excellent in New England/NY.  It's a combination of a lot of factors, but white women in TX are not that much different than the guys they share the bed.

Could be the women voting the way their man instructs them to vote.

 You know like the dems reason (one of many) they lost in '16.

[thepop 4409]

Dang. Taking a step back it's pretty cool how well Beto did. Hopefully we can build on this.

[LowPressure 73]

$70 MILLION dollars!

$70 MILLION DOLLARS!

WOW!

And NO, I don't think Beto is going to make a better National candidate.  He mainly stayed on his positive message while avoiding talk of any real substance other than promise to give away things he couldn't & we can't afford.  But more importantly I don't think he's ready for the scrutiny that comes from National office.

Mom's little financial indiscretion for example.

The shop accepted more than $630,000 in cash payments from an unidentified customer and altered records so daily transactions were not reported to the IRS, according to a plea agreement between the company and the government. 

 

What are the odds in El Paso that $630k in cash came from someone not affiliated with the cartel?  0%?  Less?

 

[WBT 20420]

59 minutes ago, Js1 said:

He underperformed Hillary out in the boonies (or Cruz overperformed)

I'd say Cruz overperformed Trump.  I think that's been an underestimated factor in this race.  Trump was not popular in Texas...hence Cruz winning the Texas primary.

[Billy Pilgrim 1913]

21 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

Or they do have their shit together and just don't view things like you do. But no, you know what is best for everyone. I am sure. 

See, here’s the problem: people like Hugo and Pancho are so condescending to those who have a different opinion than they do. Everyone on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter are the same way. Their opinion is the only right one and if you disagree then you’re an idiot, a red neck, a racist or a rape enabler. Those are the only people who vote republican. All the enlightened folks voted democrat. If this rhetoric didn’t exist, people like me would’ve probably sat out this election because I didn’t care for any of the candidates. I only voted because I didn’t want this type of elitist attitude running everything, telling me what I should and shouldn’t believe. 

 

I’m happy that congress is split. Get rid of all the hyperpartisan bullshit and work together to govern.

[Fozzz 152]

I may be mistaken, but I don't think he gets to personally keep the money he raised.

[pyrohornIII 4809]

41 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Fun fact, in 2008 Noriega spent about $4.0mm to get about 3.4mm votes (IMO, the most successful D statewide run in the last 15 years)

Robert O'Rourke spent about $70.0mm to get about 4.0mm votes.

$66.0mm spent to get another 600,000 votes.  $110,000/vote.  

Da fuh?  

Math error aside, Cruz didn't spend a dime, huh?  No dark money ads or mailouts working in his favor?  

An important part you leave out is the majority of Beto's money came from inside the state.  Texans funding their own choice for senate.  Cruz accepted much more out of state money.  If we were voting by Texans who supported their candidate with time and/or funding, Beto would win in a landslide. 

[jimmyjazz 45557]

1 minute ago, Billy Pilgrim said:

if you disagree then you’re an idiot, a red neck, a racist or a rape enabler.

Odds are good.

[EastTexan 662]

12 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Odds are good.

You mad 'cause he didn't include you with Hugo and Pancho?

[txhorns 2408]

16 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

An important part you leave out is the majority of Beto's money came from inside the state.

You sure about that?

[jimmyjazz 45557]

3 minutes ago, EastTexan said:

You mad 'cause he didn't include you with Hugo and Pancho?

That would require me to be mad, and I'm not.

[EastTexan 662]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

That would require me to be mad, and I'm not.

Good.

[gmr548 16509]

So in Texas the Ds picked up 3 CDs and 12 state legislative seats?  Beto also looks to have out performed the polling average by 4 points.  Imagine what they could have done had they played nice with Justice Brett.  

Also made the GOP extinct at the local level in a county of five million, a complete reversal from just six years ago. Flipped Tarrant and Williamson Counties in av statewide race. Every statewide candidate sans Valdez will finish within mid single digits. Came close, sometimes unexpectedly, in several US and state house races that will only become more favorable going forward, though we'll see what the gerrymander does after 2020. Obviously it sucks for a Beto to come up short by just 200k but it was unquestionably a good night for Texas Democrats.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[pyrohornIII 4809]

6 minutes ago, txhorns said:

You sure about that?

Yes I am.  It's well documented, you doubt me, look it up.

 

[Js1 85109]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

Also made the GOP extinct at the local level in a county of five million, a complete reversal from just six years ago. Flipped Tarrant and Williamson Counties in av statewide race. Every statewide candidate sans Valdez will finish within mid single digits. Came close, sometimes unexpectedly, in several US and state house races that will only become more favorable going forward, though we'll see what the gerrymander does after 2020. Obviously it sucks for a Beto to come up short by just 200k but it was unquestionably a good night for Texas Democrats.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

Lupe had no business losing by 13. Or even getting 42.5% of the vote.

Would you believe she outperformed Wendy, who didn't break 39%?  How did Abbott not win by 20?  Lupe was worse than Wendy.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

2 hours ago, Pancho Negro said:

What the fuck are you even talking about.  Yes, I know he lost.  He wasn't going to win and I never predicted that. 

Childish?  Ha, very rich coming from you. 

You still mad? 

[JimmyHoffa 1188]

41 minutes ago, Billy Pilgrim said:

See, here’s the problem: people like Hugo and Pancho are so condescending to those who have a different opinion than they do. Everyone on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter are the same way. Their opinion is the only right one and if you disagree then you’re an idiot, a red neck, a racist or a rape enabler. Those are the only people who vote republican. All the enlightened folks voted democrat. If this rhetoric didn’t exist, people like me would’ve probably sat out this election because I didn’t care for any of the candidates. I only voted because I didn’t want this type of elitist attitude running everything, telling me what I should and shouldn’t believe. 

 

I’m happy that congress is split. Get rid of all the hyperpartisan bullshit and work together to govern.

 

I had this very conversation with a really good friend of mine who agreed that it's really dangerous for the left (or the right for that matter) to think this way. As all it will do is piss off those in the middle that decide almost every election in most states. 

 

[jimmyjazz 45557]

There is no middle.

[TheFlagship 432]

I looked at the NYT county results, and this is how Cruz won:

In rural counties (total voters less than 25k), Cruz won by a margin of 600k votes.

In urban counties and Hispanic heavy areas (so Dallas, Houston, Ft Worth, San Antonio, Austin, El Paso and RGV/Laredo), Beto won by a margin 984k votes. So Cruz needs to pick up 384k votes in the suburbs and other smaller cities in West/East’s Texas. 

In the surburban/exurban areas surrounding DFW, Houston, and Central Texas, Cruz won by a margin 326k votes, meaning he only needed to win by 57k votes in remaining larger areas of West Texas and East Texas, which adds up quickly

In the Tyler/Longview/Lufkin area, Cruz won by a margin of 71k votes, Abilene/San Angelo 34k, Midland/Odessa 34k, Amarillo 28k, Lubbock 26k, Waco 17k, Golden Triangle 16k, Wichita Falls 14k, Texarkana 12k, Victoria 11k, and Bryan/College Station 8k. Beto won Corpus by 1k. The aggregate margin of victory here is 271k. Combine that with the other rural counties, and Cruz is up by 871k votes, which is more than enough given his victories in suburbs/exurbs.

For a Dem to win, I feel like they have to clear a 1.1 million + margin in the urban / Hispanic areas and continue to pick off the 326k margin in the surburbs/exurbs.

[tantric superman 4667]

49 minutes ago, Billy Pilgrim said:

See, here’s the problem: people like Hugo and Pancho are so condescending to those who have a different opinion than they do.

You need to separate the fact that there are two groups of people.  Those who have a different opinion.  And those who act like dicks on election day and the day after.  I sparred with a complete twat because his posts were moronic and troll like, not because he may have voted for Cruz and posted intelligently about it. 

Just because someone is abusing you doesn't mean it's because of your political beliefs.  You may just be coming across as an insufferable ass.

 

 

 

[Horn21 168]

36 minutes ago, Billy Pilgrim said:

All the enlightened folks voted democrat. If this rhetoric didn’t exist, people like me would’ve probably sat out this election because I didn’t care for any of the candidates. I only voted because I didn’t want this type of elitist attitude running everything, telling me what I should and shouldn’t believe. 

I actually felt somewhat the same as you after Trump won.  I didn't care for him, but I thought it was unfair that everyone who voted for him was given some demeaning label.

And then Republicans spent the next two years either ignoring or explaining away Trump's behavior.  Not one GOP party leader has had the guts to call him out when he makes a racist or misogynistic comment.  They bend the knee.  Over. And. Over. And. Over.

I gave Trump a chance.  And he showed his true colors.  You say you don't like being unfairly labeled.  And I get that.  What I don't get is that you're so offended by those labels that you're willing to vote for someone (who you don't even like) who falls in line with a man who spews hatred and vitriol, and you're willing to do it simply out of spite.

[tantric superman 4667]

7 minutes ago, JimmyHoffa said:

 

I had this very conversation with a really good friend of mine who agreed that it's really dangerous for the left (or the right for that matter) to think this way. As all it will do is piss off those in the middle that decide almost every election in most states. 

 

Yeah, they should be more gracious, like those on the right.

I think the left realizes they have to hurry up and have the fight about whether they will open up the tent to pro lifers and 2nd amendment absolutists and more hardline immigration folks.  Those few who feel strongly about those issues but who have a blue collar streak or hate the way the Repubs are going.  They are few but they are out there in Texas.

The abuse of the "other" is a both sides issue so I think it's pointless to say that one side needs to be more accepting or kinder to the other and by doing so they will get people to flip.  I think it's just common sense that your chances of flipping someone are higher when you are nice about it.  And being nice isn't enough. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19093]

33 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Lupe had no business losing by 13. Or even getting 42.5% of the vote.

Would you believe she outperformed Wendy, who didn't break 39%?  How did Abbott not win by 20?  Lupe was worse than Wendy.

Straight ticket voting in Harris county was a lot of that.  It also ousted Ed Emmett for a 27 year old with no experience.  We are fucked in the case of a Hurricane.

[Huckleberry 32701]

2 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Straight ticket voting in Harris county was a lot of that.  It also ousted Ed Emmett for a 27 year old with no experience.  We are fucked in the case of a Hurricane.

I hope that there will be enough people around her that will quietly call Emmett and ask for advice if necessary. Hidalgo herself doesn't strike me as someone with the wisdom to do that, but I'm hoping career public servants help her out. You are still quite right that this is the absolute worst result of the night personally for those of us in Harris County.

Edited November 7, 2018 by Huckleberry

[Js1 85109]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

I quietly hope that there will be enough people around her that will quietly call Emmett and ask for advice if necessary. Hidalgo herself doesn't strike me as someone with the wisdom to do that, but I'm hoping career public servants help her out. You are still quite right that this is the absolute worst result of the night pesronally for those of us in Harris County.

+1 on this thought.  Like I said, I only voted for 2 Republicans - Emmett and Sarah Davis.