Cruz vs Beto

[Guest Lobo]

Well Abbott, Patrick, Paxton, Cruz, Bush, Miller, Hegar, Craddick, Blacklock, Devine, Brown, Keller, Hervey, Slaughter, and then him.  

Yep, my bad, I forgot about the Courts of Appeals candidates and how sexy they were..  Rob O'Rourke did finish in the Top 15 though.  

Edited November 20, 2018 by Lobo

[Foosters 17733]

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

Well Abbott, Patrick, Paxton, Cruz, Bush, Miller, Hegar, Craddick, Blacklock, Devine, Brown, Keller, Hervey, Slaughter, and then him.  

Yep, my bad.  Rob O'Rourke did finish in the Top 15 though.  

What would you like us to do with that information?

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

What a bizarre stat to crow about.  Doesn't that just mean that every single person that you listed above had significant voters that preferred Beto to Cruz?

[Huckleberry 32703]

3 minutes ago, Foosters said:

What would you like us to do with that information?

He doesn't know, he's an idiot. Here's the info on the statewide races, for those who actually care.

Slaughter did not have a DEM opponent.

Edited November 20, 2018 by Huckleberry

[Celery Man 20886]

Maybe Paxton should run for president.

[Guest Lobo]

Paxton is actually very seriously considering running for Governor in 2022.  

Edited November 20, 2018 by Lobo

[Celery Man 20886]

Neat.

[Guest Lobo]

It's not neat.  It's a bad choice for the Republicans if they are trying to stave off a 'Blue Wave' in Texas.  He's a fucked up candidate to hang your hopes on.  Plus Dan Patrick will likely be in the mix.  What a fucked up primary.  It'll be fun to watch the shitshow.  I still think Bush/O'Rourke is our 2022 choice for the Governorship. 

[Js1 85110]

Wait so a bunch of victorious Republicans got more votes than Beto, who did not win?

No. Wai.  Did y'all know the winners usually get more votes than the losers?

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Beto is even further down the list if you count the California race for something something and President Somebody from India.

[hayden_horn 11360]

that sid fucking miller got more votes than beto is a goddamn indictment of our state

[Guest Lobo]

I honestly had figured O'Rourke would have eclipsed some down-ballot, underperforming Republican (a hobbled Craddick or low-enthusiasm Blacklock for instance).  Not by much, but figured some low-energy GOP'er woulda clocked in at just a hair under 4.0mm.  I guess straight ticket voting saw to that.  Thought I'd pivot the conversation to O'Rourke/Bush for Governor, and the rest of my CR posts on other threads certainly should demonstrate my complete lack of loyalty to the Republican Party.  But facts are manipulated by Republicans and ignored by Democrats.  

I do think O'Rourke taking down the Lt. Gov. would be/have been a great move.  NOt just because of the controlling the Senate, but because of what a posterboy Patrick has been to the twisted portion of the party. 

[RPM 26228]

1 hour ago, hayden_horn said:

that sid fucking miller got more votes than beto is a goddamn indictment of our state

It's a scarlet letter we all have to bear.

[relapse98 634]

On 11/17/2018 at 1:32 PM, Vein said:

Republicans will push a more appealing candidate next election.

Hmm, I don't think even Ted Cruz is getting primaried.

[Rimbo 25783]

On 11/19/2018 at 7:12 AM, horncyclist said:

Can we get off this stupid Texas versus California shit?

Yes. Please. Having spent roughly half my life in both, there is no need for this fight.

 

 

 

 

 

 

And I mean it is just unfair to California to try and compare it to Texas. Ain't nobody should have that kind of high expectations laid on 'em.

[berlinerbaer 670]

Beto doesn't stand out among other Dems and shouldn't run for president. At least that's the latest hot take from Bill Scher of Politico.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/20/beto-orourke-2020-president-campaign-analysis-222639

tl;dr version:

• Beto's performance in Texas was nice, but so were that of many other Democrats on Election night. Comparisons to Kyrsten Sinema in AZ, who ran as a centrist rather than a progressive, are made.
• He hardly moved the needle in rural Texas. At all. There's no reason to expect him to pick off any red states in a 2020 pres run.
• He may not be ready for prime time, like John Edwards or Marco Rubio, who were both easily primaried.
• Obama was on the right side of a big issue all along: the Iraq War. It is unlikely Beto has a similar distinguishing view to take advantage of.
• He should stay in Texas and challenge Cornyn in 2020. Cornyn has among the lowest approval ratings of Pubs in Texas, 28 points lower than Lyin' Ted.

[Celery Man 20886]

Agree with 3.  Absent information about how the knuckleball that is our political future breaks, difficult to say whether 5 would be a good idea.  But as things are right now, there's no reason to think he would beat Cornyn when he didn't beat Cruz.  Disagree with the others.  Every single candidate who runs will be on the right side of the big issue, provided they are running against Donald Trump.

[RayDog 682]

Politico is actively opposing progressive issues and specifically Medicare for all. So, they have been actively promoting Biden. Politico is not a politically neutral news source and anything they publish should be viewed with their corporate slant in mind.

[RPM 26228]

I agree Beto isn't ready for a Presidential run. But he is an excellent candidate for something. I don't think he's done just yet. The guy just oozes sincerity and he has a great code of campaign ethics. But, imho, he needs to fight back a little harder. I don't think showing some spine and running a few negative counter ads would hurt his image. If he stays PAC free, I think he's gold. But he could wind up in an appointment (cabinet level?).

Stranger things have happened.

imgur

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Old take:  “We need someone young and refreshing.  We don’t need anymore olds running for President. Also, we need someone who plays to the middle and isn’t so divisive/hard left.”

New Hottness:  “Beto isn’t ready and he’s not aggressive enough on the attack to win.”

 

Ted Cruz is only two years older than Beto. 

 

When it comes to the 2020 nomination, I have two categories:

1. Candidates I WANT to be President because they would bring the most to the table and do the most for country in office. (Warren).

2. Candidates that have the best chance to WIN against Trumpism in a nation wide election (Beto). 

Beto is everything Trump isn’t and checks all the boxes for demographic appeal.  Excluding Trumpsters, there isn’t one group of people he alienates.

He would be Trump’s worst nightmare as an opponent.

Edited November 21, 2018 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

1 hour ago, RPM said:

I agree Beto isn't ready for a Presidential run. But he is an excellent candidate for something. I don't think he's done just yet. The guy just oozes sincerity and he has a great code of campaign ethics. But, imho, he needs to fight back a little harder. I don't think showing some spine and running a few negative counter ads would hurt his image. If he stays PAC free, I think he's gold. But he could wind up in an appointment (cabinet level?).

Stranger things have happened.

 

 

Note to self:  if interested in running for office, don’t eat a corn dog in public.  At least as long as surly is around.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

6 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Not completely understanding the complexities of the rural states and how they break and what they mean for electoral colleges, I still think Beto would beat Trump and agree with your number 2 on charisma/appeal/Obama-esque “It” factor.

I do think he needs to narrow his pitch and be more focused on the political part of the job as opposed to being vague and generally speaking to his platform. Get more technical and detailed, which will be either something he proactively does or will be beat out of him by his opponents if he runs.

Yeah, couldn’t disagree more.  If anyone among the democrats is in touch with the dynamics of rural USA, it’s Beto.  

Also, going more nuts and bolts policy wonk as opposed to widespread emotional appeal is a terrible strategy. 

[Zombie 284]

I'm also not seeing what makes Beto unqualified, particularly in comparison with the rest of the potential 2020 field. Every potential candidate has downsides. Biden, too old and centrist. Warren, too old, liberal, and unfairly has to deal with a Hillary level of misogyny. Harris, too young, liberal, and inexperienced. Booker, too corporatist and contrived. Etc.... These are not my criticisms as I think any of these would be great presidents. Just what I anticipate voters will impute onto the candidates. 

Beto has downsides to be sure, but in my mind they are far fewer than the remainder of the field. Most importantly, he has Obama level charisma and is an excellent and very experienced campaigner and fundraiser. He's progressive but actively seeks to bring disparate views together rather than just being a liberal bomb thrower. And while it's not fair, the fact that he's a white man would probably make it easier to appeal to swing state Obama voters that went for Trump in 16.  

Any number of candidates could beat Trump, but Beto at this point appears to be the strongest potential candidate so far. Of course a lot could change over the next 18 months and a relatively unknown governor or other unknown candidate could emerge as a similarly strong option. 

[RPM 26228]

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Note to self:  if interested in running for office, don’t eat a corn dog in public.  At least as long as surly is around.

 

[bolverk 29400]

4 minutes ago, Zombie said:

I'm also not seeing what makes Beto unqualified, particularly in comparison with the rest of the potential 2020 field. Every potential candidate has downsides. Biden, too old and centrist. Warren, too old, liberal, and unfairly has to deal with a Hillary level of misogyny. Harris, too young, liberal, and inexperienced. Booker, too corporatist and contrived. Etc.... These are not my criticisms as I think any of these would be great presidents. Just what I anticipate voters will impute onto the candidates. 

Beto has downsides to be sure, but in my mind they are far fewer than the remainder of the field. Most importantly, he has Obama level charisma and is an excellent and very experienced campaigner and fundraiser. He's progressive but actively seeks to bring disparate views together rather than just being a liberal bomb thrower. And while it's not fair, the fact that he's a white man would probably make it easier to appeal to swing state Obama voters that went for Trump in 16.  

Any number of candidates could beat Trump, but Beto at this point appears to be the strongest potential candidate so far. Of course a lot could change over the next 18 months and a relatively unknown governor or other unknown candidate could emerge as a similarly strong option. 

This is a really excellent and well thought out post. I'm not entirely certain I agree with everything you're saying, but I see where you're going and think you make some great points.

+rep for the quality post

[RPM 26228]

47 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Why isn’t Beto ready for a presidential run?

I keep hearing this but what makes him unqualified? 

I don't see him as unqualified, just unseasoned. I think he would excel in office. His problem is getting there playing above board game. He's fighting with one arm tied behind his back.

[NBMisha 224]

At dinner last night with a couple a fews years older, if one can imagine that.  Anyway, your basic always lived in the NE, summer in Nantucket, don't know much about the rest of the world but such nice people.  Topic turned to 2020 democratic candidates, and both were certain that Bloomberg should and would be the one.  The bounds of politeness did not allow me convey to them how crazy and myopic that was.   And, they had virtually never heard of Beto.  

I guess this "centrist" constuency is real.  And fairly hard headed.  Something to deal with, but I'm doubting they have the numbers now.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Why did they think Bloomberg would be the one?

[NBMisha 224]

Well, he's a billionaire from New York, they trust his management skills (implicitly, I presume), and thus he could deal with Trump in a debate (as if that matters, as has been pointed out here).  Oh, and would appeal to independents, who, in there view, would run back to Trump if the candidate is too progressive.    I don't think this last argument holds any more.  I think the independents have been given the Trump inoculation.  Might be wrong.

[Horn Dog 9672]

Not sure if this has been discussed, but if Beto is ready for leadership and is now nationally recognized, why isn't he being discussed as a challenger for Speaker of the House??

[FondrenRoad 4378]

1 hour ago, RPM said:

I don't see him as unqualified, just unseasoned. I think he would excel in office. His problem is getting there playing above board game. He's fighting with one arm tied behind his back.

Dems would just have to take a page from the GOP's W playbook. W didn't swift boat Kerry, a PAC did. PACs are already heavily active during Presidential elections, and many are actually completely out of the candidates' influence or control. So its easy for Beto to say he can't stop it if he really can't.

Dems are playing from behind with attack PACs though. They had some active ones in 2018, but really dropped the ball in 2016 when GOP PACs were out in force attacking Hillary and the GOP candidate was very easy to attack. 

[Texas73 420]

14 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Not sure if this has been discussed, but if Beto is ready for leadership and is now nationally recognized, why isn't he being discussed as a challenger for Speaker of the House??

Beto resigned from the House.

[Horn Dog 9672]

18 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

Beto resigned from the House.

Ok thanks..... I missed that.  Wish he had not done that.  I think a Speaker role would have been a really good move for him.

[Zombie 284]

Beto resigned from the House.

Even if he had not resigned, being speaker would have made it nearly impossible for him to actively run for president where he would be far more useful to the country.

[Pancho 44481]

40 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Not sure if this has been discussed, but if Beto is ready for leadership and is now nationally recognized, why isn't he being discussed as a challenger for Speaker of the House??

He couldn’t be Speaker and run for President. 

I mean he could—technically—but he wouldn’t be effective in either position. 

[Horn Dog 9672]

3 minutes ago, Zombie said:

25 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

Beto resigned from the House.

Even if he had not resigned, being speaker would have made it nearly impossible for him to actively run for president where he would be far more useful to the country.

Maybe... but I'm not sure.  He would of been a great comprise candidate for speaker and would save the Dems from the polarizing figure that is Pelosi.  He would of been the face and voice of the New Dem party with new leadership, which would be refreshing for a lot of swing voters.  I think this would of helped the Dems tremendously in 2020.  Now the R's are just gonna run anti-Pelosi ads and talk about how the Dems are just the party of San Francisco liberals.... and it will work.  Beto would be more useful to the country in the House right now IMO.

[Guest Lobo]

We've only had a handful of Speakers run for President, and even then only two did it really seriously.  And only one, won...Polk.  

We seem to not mind our Senators and Governors checking out right after swearing in, to head up to Iowa.  But we seem to not like our Speakers doing it.  

The founders made a lot of mistakes, but they had hoped we'd understand that the President was to be the tacit "Head of State" and the Speaker was to be as close to we could get to a "Head of Government."  We didn't want to the two to mix.  Trump is also doing his best to blur those lines, as has nearly every President since Andrew Johnson.  

He won't do it, but O'Rourke could really do some national damage to Trump and what's left of the GOP by heading up the DNC.  It keeps him in the limelight, the man can obviously raise money and profiles, and could jab at Trump all he wants with little blowback.  He needs to keep his profile up, but he also needs to stay in the arena and get dusty.  There aren't many options available to him for the next 12 months until real 2020 Presidential nominations for the Democratic party kick into "real" gear.  

[Bozo_Casanova 26284]

Even if he had not resigned, being speaker would have made it nearly impossible for him to actively run for president where he would be far more useful to the country.

1) Beto could never be speaker anytime soon. That’s the pinnacle of a career in legislative management. It’s not a national political figurehead.
2) Beto personally may be of more value to the country as a candidate for executive office, but a speaker of the house is in a position to do at least as much and arguably more “for the country” than a president.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

3 hours ago, NBMisha said:

Well, he's a billionaire from New York, they trust his management skills (implicitly, I presume), and thus he could deal with Trump in a debate (as if that matters, as has been pointed out here).  Oh, and would appeal to independents, who, in there view, would run back to Trump if the candidate is too progressive.    I don't think this last argument holds any more.  I think the independents have been given the Trump inoculation.  Might be wrong.

Agree. Many Bernie backers didn't vote for HRC but for one of the other three.

[Js1 85110]

3 hours ago, NBMisha said:

Well, he's a billionaire from New York, they trust his management skills (implicitly, I presume), and thus he could deal with Trump in a debate (as if that matters, as has been pointed out here).  Oh, and would appeal to independents, who, in there view, would run back to Trump if the candidate is too progressive.    I don't think this last argument holds any more.  I think the independents have been given the Trump inoculation.  Might be wrong.

Wait...a....minute....

Billionaire from NYC

Management skills

"Appeal to independents"

 

Uh, no thanks.

[NBMisha 224]

Sure.   What the centrists want and what the progressives want in a candidate are not compatible.   I think the Dems are well into the process of sorting that out.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

49 minutes ago, NBMisha said:

Sure.   What the centrists want and what the progressives want in a candidate are not compatible.   I think the Dems are well into the process of sorting that out.

I think a big problem is when people hear the word “progressive”, they immediately think “far left”.  That’s bullshit propagated by both sides to alienate the progressive movement. 

The sad part is I don’t know how to overcome that perception problem. 

Just remember Teddy Roosevelt, the Republican, was the ultimate progressive.

Edited November 21, 2018 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Celery Man 20886]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I think a big problem is when people hear the word “progressive”, they immediately think “far left”.  That’s bullshit propagated by both sides to alienate the progressive movement. 

The sad part is I don’t know how to overcome that perception problem. 

Just remember Teddy Roosevelt, the Republican, was the ultimate progressive.

just go negative against the other side.  say the same lie over and over again.  use the same words.  weave those words in whenever you are talking about the person you want to be associated with the words.  do a reverse thesaurus on all of your adjectives and just use the simplest ones.  whenever someone criticizes what you are doing, use the same words to attack them.

[NBMisha 224]

Regressive?  Fascist?  Righty?   Friend of the state?   Need to work on this....  What is the opposite of radical?

[Celery Man 20886]

think more "bad" "liar" "dumb" "mean", etc.  find some books for toddlers, crib their style but as if you were trying to create a monster.

 

fwiw it's worth on Beto possibly not being ready for prime time, since I expressed that I don't think that's an unfair characterization - he may be.  In his senate campaign, I thought he was almost perfect on the stump, but looked a little star struck when he was on Ellen and Colbert, and didn't seem confident enough in the debates.  He improved rapidly in the debates, even within the first one and then on to the second one.  He seemed really good on the CNN and MSNBC town halls (which were basically stumps).  But if we were to compare him to Rubio, who in 2016 often seemed unsure and unprepared, I could see that being something he needs to focus on explicitly in preparation for a presidential run.  That is one of the reasons I'm not yet convinced he shouldn't be a VP on the next ticket.  I think it's very possible that he could have his shit together for 2020, and may not feel as conflicted allowing himself some more freedom to defend himself vigorously against an opposition party opponent in a different campaign (where he hasn't already made running FOR and not AGAINST central to his position).  I think he was overly optimistic and too slow to get a bit tougher against Ted Cruz this time around.

[BillyBadAss 189]

A House member can't retain their seat and run for Senate, can they? House members only serve 2-year terms. So they'd have to be on the ballot for both the House and Senate seat to accomplish that. 

Edited November 21, 2018 by BillyBadAss

[Guest Lobo]

On 10/30/2018 at 10:28 AM, wildcat09 said:

So is Lobo a bank teller?

No, I got promoted to Associate Vice President at our bank...thank you very much.  Show some respect, there is a bonus-sharing arrangement due us at the end of the year as well 

[gmr548 16514]

No, I got promoted to Associate Vice President at our bank...thank you very much.  Show some respect, there is a bonus-sharing arrangement due us at the end of the year as well 

Okay, I'll bite, why bump a thread with 16 months of no activity to post this?

[Guest Lobo]

Because of my massive fucking promotion dude.  our bank is a big deal, we have a corner pad site that used to be a blockbuster video.  And I made vice president after 16 months.  

[Continental Op 3934]

There isn't anything interesting going on in the US or the world right now so let's dig up  1.5 year old threads.