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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

Js1

Js1 87179

Posted
Posted (edited)

So the other day, Ted's team came out on Twitter and said the Texas Lyceum poll was wrong, Cruz is up 10+ points, etc. etc.

Now they're dropping tv ads.

Follow the money.  They are scared and their internals show something similar to the Lyceum and Q-pac polling.  Or else they'd have dropped their own internals showing Cruz up bigly.  As per the normal 2018 cycle so far, 90% of the polls are not immediately countered by Republican internals because they show the same thing.

Edited by Js1
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23717

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5313/Will-Ted-Cruz-be-re-elected-to-the-US-Senate-in-Texas-in-2018#data

ZFebXfg.png

At one point you could have gotten 4-to-1 odds.

Oh and that site is a con job.  5% fee to withdrawl.  WTF.

 

ETA: But I am a degenerate, so I only deposited 1k. 

Edited by Anastasis
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Blotto

Blotto 24017

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Oh and that site is a con job.  5% fee to withdrawl.  WTF.

 

ETA: But I am a degenerate, so I only deposited 1k. 

Yeah the fees on predictit are a joke, but I couldn't get any of my GOP buddies to give 3-1 odds so I caved to my degenerate instincts as well.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23717

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Yeah the fees on predictit are a joke, but I couldn't get any of my GOP buddies to give 3-1 odds so I caved to my degenerate instincts as well.

Doesn't look like anyone wants to fill my NO on cruz. But I did get a easy fill on Dems to control house.

ETA: got my cruz no. this should be fun. 

ETA2: holy shit.  You can bet on the number of potus and vp tweets.  My productivity is going to be shot. 

Edited by Anastasis
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13729

Posted
Posted

Cruz def has no where to go but down.

You have to figure that Cruz won't find new voters or get Republicans to all of a sudden be aware of him.   If you don't know who he is, the odds are that you're not engaged with voting and won't vote in November anyway.  Therefore Cruz only has fear and get-out-the-vote to engage his potential voters.    This would seem to have a limit of how many voters he can get.  However as of today, it's enough to win.

Beto is probably still far behind Cruz but he has the benefit of still having low name recognition.    Therefore for every 1000 voters who become aware of him, he earns X voters and probably converts Y voters from Cruz.     The question is does he have enough time for X & Y to overtake Cruz?  

 

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Js1

Js1 87179

Posted
Posted (edited)

PPP poll this morning has Cruz 46-Beto 42.

The 3 polls this week have it +1, +6, +4 for Cruz.  Average of +3.67.

Handicappers have officially moved the race to Leans R.

Edited by Js1
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Js1

Js1 87179

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

There seems to be more Rs than Ds who may lie to pollsters about their voting preferences as they don't want to feel judged.  I have to think Cruz has a few more percentage points on Beto.    

 

Why?

There's nothing shameful in Texas about voting Republican. If anything, there's a lot shameful about voting Democrat in this state.  What's the joke about the homosexual in Midland who was more scared of people finding out he's a Democrat than gay?

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13729

Posted
Posted

I think there are many republicans that are ashamed of what Trump is doing so they don't want to answer any questions about voting.   I'm not saying that they're telling a pollster they are voting Beto but rather undecided or not voting.    I have zero evidence of this but rather a feeling some Cruz voters won't admit they are voting for him.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34635

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I think there are many republicans that are ashamed of what Trump is doing so they don't want to answer any questions about voting.   I'm not saying that they're telling a pollster they are voting Beto but rather undecided or not voting.    I have zero evidence of this but rather a feeling some Cruz voters won't admit they are voting for him.

Voting for Cruz should be embarrassing but it's not in Texas. I can absolutely see Trump voters lying to pollsters but not Cruz voters.

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MidTexHorn

MidTexHorn 822

Posted
Posted

I think very very few people will intentionally punch the ballot for Cruz. I think the challenge is that there are likely so many straight ticket R voters that are a real challenge to overcome. I don't see flipping many of those people, but maybe we can get a few. The main thing to go after is the get out the vote for Dem leaners, undecideds, etc.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34635

Posted
Posted

As discussed recently, the best news is that the Senate race should be the top race on the ballot. Hopefully you can catch people who would otherwise get a few races in, realize they are just going to vote straight ticket, then go back and do that. In this case if they want to vote for O'Rourke they know they can't do that early in the endless ballot scroll.

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Js1

Js1 87179

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Seems to go against conventional wisdom to hold so many small town rallies but I guess Dem conventional wisdom has gotten them 30-40% of the vote lately.    

I get his strategy. He's still introducing himself to voters.  No one takes elections seriously until after Labor Day (summer vacations, school out, etc.)  I'm good with Beto doing this for now and then September/October needs to be big city events and college campuses in between the debates (if they happen).

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Seems to go against conventional wisdom to hold so many small town rallies but I guess Dem conventional wisdom has gotten them 30-40% of the vote lately.    

He’s doing that in combination with an aggressive social media strategy based on displaying him doing all these small town rallies.

It’s actually brilliant because he’s showing everyone he’s working for all Texans, even the ones in the forgotten little communities that have never had good representation.

Look at Beto’s Twitter feed and then look at Ted Cruz’s.  Which candidate looks like they care about the people of Texas?  It’s obvious Beto is crushing Cruz in campaigning both online and on the ground.

It’s one of the best campaigns I’ve ever seen.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1747

Posted
Posted (edited)

I was looking at a highly addictive election map that let you look at each individual precinct in the entire country for the last presidential election. Many out in West Texas or rural east Texas would have something like 135-10 for trump. Many in dem leaning burbs would have something like 1100-1000 for Hillary. Trump was able to cancel out large precincts with just one small, rural one because of the margin of victory. 

In some ways, it doesn’t make much sense to spend so much time in a rural area that’s hostile to democrats. On the other hand, cutting down on that massive advantage in rural areas will let him take better advantage of the areas that are inclined to vote for him. I do think showing up will go a long way in some of these small towns that feel forgotten.

Edited by Larry T. Spider
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Js1

Js1 87179

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I was looking at a highly addictive election map that let you look at each individual precinct in the entire country for the last presidential election. Many out in West Texas or rural east Texas would have something like 135-10 for trump. Many in dem leaning burbs would have something like 1100-1000 for Hillary. Trump was able to cancel out large precincts with just one small, rural on because of the margin of victory. 

In some ways, it doesn’t make much sense to spend so much time in a rural area that’s hostile to democrats. On the other hand, cutting down on that massive advantage in rural areas will let him take better advantage of the areas that are inclined to vote for him. I do think showing up will go a long way in some of these small towns that feel forgotten.

Some of these small towns, the Democrat candidate HAS NEVER shown up to talk to them. Ever.

It's easy to say "I'm never voting for the Democrat ever" when you've never seen them.  In this case, they're actually getting to know Beto, ask him questions and see for themselves he's not the far-left socialist libtard Ted says he is.

Edited by Js1
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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

Posted
Posted (edited)

I think campaigning in rural areas pays dividends even in cities.   Texas has a strong statewide cultural identity, and rural Texas is a big part of that.  I don't even know how to explain it, but it matters to me as a city guy that a statewide candidate gives a shit about small towns throughout the state.  When I read the Traces of Texas posts, I take some measure of state pride in remote places I'd never even heard of.  I don't know why, but it's something that I think most Texans share.  Beto seems like an authentic Texan, and that goes a long way even among city dwellers. 

Edited by Mojo Hand
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Pancho

Pancho 46300

Posted
Posted

It was also in the morning when people have jobs.  And fall sports started this week for high schools. 

With small towns, all you need is to get people talking.  I guarandamntee you if he won over people at that town hall, they'll go back and start telling their friends at church or bridge club.  "Well if Edna likes them, then I might vote for him too!"

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Would an Obama endorsement help or hurt Beto?

Great question.

Endorsement wouldn’t hurt but Obama on the campaign trail with Beto seems like it would be a waste of time for Obama.

Obama would be more influential in other races in other states.

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1747

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

It was also in the morning when people have jobs.  And fall sports started this week for high schools. 

With small towns, all you need is to get people talking.  I guarandamntee you if he won over people at that town hall, they'll go back and start telling their friends at church or bridge club.  "Well if Edna likes them, then I might vote for him too!"

This is really true. It also starts the long process of destigmatising voting for dems. It’s literally unthinkable in many places if you are not a minority.

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Celery Man

Celery Man 21095

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

I think campaigning in rural areas pays dividends even in cities.   Texas has a strong statewide cultural identity, and rural Texas is a big part of that.  I don't even know how to explain it, but it matters to me as a city guy that a statewide candidate gives a shit about small towns throughout the state.  When I read the Traces of Texas posts, I take some measure of state pride in remote places I'd never even heard of.  I don't know why, but it's something that I think most Texans share.  Beto seems like an authentic Texan, and that goes a long way even among city dwellers. 

este.  palabra.  verdad.

 

I think that the way that he's doing this is important.  The whole deal, from not being negative, talking about working together despite our differences, saying things that aren't politically favorable in Texas, and visiting everywhere and talking to as many Texans as he can as directly as possible.  And focusing his campaign on getting other Texans to talk to other Texans directly.

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Orca of Peace

Orca of Peace 109

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, yoladu said:

Iraan 1200 : 40

Houston Metro 6,000,000 : 200,000

impressive turn out in Iraan! 😁

7.6 million voted in the 2012 US Senate spot that had Cruz vs. the Democrat.  It's nice of him to do that but he needs to really go to big Latino areas IMO to register THOSE people. It's a math problem right now, he needs an energized turnout which has 90% likelihood for Beto votes. 

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SaucyJack

SaucyJack 3520

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Orca of Peace said:

7.6 million voted in the 2012 US Senate spot that had Cruz vs. the Democrat.  It's nice of him to do that but he needs to really go to big Latino areas IMO to register THOSE people. It's a math problem right now, he needs an energized turnout which has 90% likelihood for Beto votes. 

 It’s a turn out problem not a registration problem.

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Js1

Js1 87179

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

You'd have to think so if he could get some recognition. He's a very likable guy.

Possible VP candidate, for sure. Also possible 2024 candidate instead, if the demographics are truly with Texas getting closer to blue. He'd also be up in 2024.

Edited by Js1
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90642

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Seems to go against conventional wisdom to hold so many small town rallies but I guess Dem conventional wisdom has gotten them 30-40% of the vote lately.    

Small towns are in danger of being fucked over by Trump/GOP policies  at the national level, and Patrick/etc. at the local level.  

Even if they don’t want to openly admit it, they know Ted/Donald/Patrick/etc. ultimately give no fucks about them or their concerns. 

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Js1

Js1 87179

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Small towns are in danger of being fucked over by Trump/GOP policies  at the national level, and Patrick/etc. at the local level.  

Even if they don’t want to openly admit it, they know Ted/Donald/Patrick/etc. ultimately give no fucks about them or their concerns. 

You can't take those places for granted. You think its in the bag, but not always. *Cough* Hillary in the Midwest *cough*

They want to be visited. They want to hear from the candidates.  Kudos to Beto for showing up. 

Edited by Js1
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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1747

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Small towns are in danger of being fucked over by Trump/GOP policies  at the national level, and Patrick/etc. at the local level.  

Even if they don’t want to openly admit it, they know Ted/Donald/Patrick/etc. ultimately give no fucks about them or their concerns. 

They give lots of fucks about their concerns. Trannies in bathrooms, messicans taking their jerbs, libruls corrupting their kids and making them ghey. Now, the real issues impacting rural communities, those guys certainly give no fucks about. But throw on a cowboy hat and clear some brush in a commercial and they should be good to go.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13729

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Possible VP candidate, for sure. Also possible 2024 candidate instead, if the demographics are truly with Texas getting closer to blue. He'd also be up in 2024.

If he wins in 2018, I think 2020 would be more of Beto being pushed onto the main stage of the 2020 Dem convention for potential runs in 2024 or 2028.  But perhaps they would fast track him.  While I doubt he would be mentioned much for 2020 because the 2020 election starts the day after the 2018 election.  

However this is pure speculation which means nothing if he can't pull off the Senate win in 3 months.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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