Cruz vs Beto

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Message Board User 12405]

41 minutes ago, thepop said:

This is one poll - before we start heading into the bunker, take a breath and wait for this result to be replicated.  If the next couple polls show a similar result, then it'll be time to don the hard hat.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

20 minutes ago, Jograves said:

Please vote, young people. Please. 

Two good charts to keep in mind when viewing these polls.  Young people don't vote, and they vote even less in midterms relative to the olds.  Howeva, they are a huge segment of the voting age population, so they can make up ground even at low turnout rates.   The 55+ group in the above chart is only 25% of voting age population.  To say it in another way, 75% of Texans fall in the very pro-Beto 18-34 and 35-54 ranges.  

 

 

Male	10,352,910	49.6
Female	10,498,910	50.4
Under 5 years	1,624,628	7.8
5 to 9 years	1,654,184	7.9
10 to 14 years	1,631,192	7.8
15 to 19 years	1,636,232	7.8
20 to 24 years	1,539,404	7.4
25 to 34 years	3,162,083	15.2
35 to 44 years	3,322,238	15.9
45 to 54 years	2,611,137	12.5
55 to 59 years	896,521	4.3
60 to 64 years	701,669	3.4
65 to 74 years	1,142,608	5.5
75 to 84 years	691,984	3.3
85 years and over	237,940	1.1

 

 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[RDCanecutter 26853]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

My point is, I consider myself pretty hyper aware when it comes to politics these days, but I didn't understand this simple rule.  I can't imagine the general layman who normally wouldn't vote in a midterm understands it either.  I was still going to vote, but I thought of course Travis County is in the bag, so my vote probably wouldn't make much difference. 

Trust me, if you know the names of the two main candidates in the race, you are ahead of lots of people. When I was at UT, it turned out that maybe 3 out of 20 students in one of my classes had even voted in that year's election. I stopped class and trooped them down to the WW1 memorial behind the Littlefield Fountain, where I had them apologize, one by one, to the dead.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

and that dead soldier's name?  Albert Einstein.

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

25 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

But you ain’t got no legs, Lt. Dan.

[ConferenceRoom 6210]

Yes, I know that.

[Gil Bang 26176]

34 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Mother of  God

[Mojo Hand 4580]

Abbott hasn't retweeted that he will stand!  Why does he hate our troops?!? 

[RDCanecutter 26853]

1 minute ago, Mojo Hand said:

Abbott hasn't retweeted that he will stand!  Why does he hate our troops?!? 

Typical t-sip. He'll maim himself to get out of putting on an imitation WW2 uniform and standing in reverence whenever Jerry Jones decides it's time for church.

[RDCanecutter 26853]

Hey, I was just talking shit with that last post, but if NFL teams are private businesses, how come we don't start every game with a mass prayer? Do they hate God? And I'm talking real Episcopal prayer, so we can drink, but everybody gotta kneel. Or else they hate God.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

 

34 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Two good charts to keep in mind when viewing these polls.  Young people don't vote, and they vote even less in midterms relative to the olds.  Howeva, they are a huge segment of the voting age population, so they can make up ground even at low turnout rates.   The 55+ group in the above chart is only 25% of voting age population.  To say it in another way, 75% of Texans fall in the very pro-Beto 18-34 and 35-54 ranges.  

 

 

Male	10,352,910	49.6
Female	10,498,910	50.4
Under 5 years	1,624,628	7.8
5 to 9 years	1,654,184	7.9
10 to 14 years	1,631,192	7.8
15 to 19 years	1,636,232	7.8
20 to 24 years	1,539,404	7.4
25 to 34 years	3,162,083	15.2
35 to 44 years	3,322,238	15.9
45 to 54 years	2,611,137	12.5
55 to 59 years	896,521	4.3
60 to 64 years	701,669	3.4
65 to 74 years	1,142,608	5.5
75 to 84 years	691,984	3.3
85 years and over	237,940	1.1

 

 

 

I don't want to freak out the Happening Bunker, but I just put all three of these charts into excel and it looks like Beto is up on Cruz 2,941,000 to 2,754,000.

 

 

[Message Board User 12405]

Beto needs to hire some juvenile delinquents to slash the tires on all the assisted living facility buses the night before Election Day.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Just now, Message Board User said:

Beto needs to hire some juvenile delinquents to slash the tires on all the assisted living facility buses the night before Election Day.

Joke's on you.  The olds mailed their ballots in 6 months ago.

[RDCanecutter 26853]

4 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Beto needs to hire some juvenile delinquents to slash the tires on all the assisted living facility buses the night before Election Day.

Kids don't wanna work anymore.

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26773]

I don't want to freak out the Happening Bunker, but I just put all three of these charts into excel and it looks like Beto is up on Cruz 2,941,000 to 2,754,000.
 
 

I “know a guy” and apparently there’s a real path to victory becoming visible. It’s extremely narrow and my guess still is that Beto comes up short, but this isn’t impossible anymore.

[NowThis 931]

56 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 

I don't want to freak out the Happening Bunker, but I just put all three of these charts into excel and it looks like Beto is up on Cruz 2,941,000 to 2,754,000.

 

 

how did you get the turnout percentage per age group?

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

4 minutes ago, NowThis said:

how did you get the turnout percentage per age group?

just used the midterm numbers in this chart:

 

[Mack Tripper 703]

Beto's op-ed regarding criminal justice reform in today's Chronicle:

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/Beto-ORourke-Texas-criminal-justice-reform-jail-13181472.php

[gmr548 16681]

This needs to be plastered all over the internet. The "my vote don't count" youth will see it's just ceding control to people who will be dead by the time we deal with problems they cause.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[Brisketexan 106621]

5 minutes ago, Mack Tripper said:

Beto's op-ed regarding criminal justice reform in today's Chronicle:

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/Beto-ORourke-Texas-criminal-justice-reform-jail-13181472.php

And I agree with EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THOSE (except a blanket "ban the box" on job applications -- there are some crimes that are and should be relevant for some jobs; if you've been convicted of embezzlement, a bank etc. can ask about that, if you've been convicted of a sex crime or abuse of a minor, a day care or school can ask about that, etc., AND, it should go hand-in-hand with some immunity to liability for the employer for hiring a person convicted of a crime.  I don't want to go on a long digression -- the point is, I agree with his general point, with some refinement).

These are moves that make fiscal sense, social sense, and governmental sense.

Ted Cruz will tweet about Beto being "SOFT ON CRIME!" in 3...2....1....

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13619]

Ted should use this for his campaign theme and pay me an outrageous consultant fee. 

 

[Message Board User 12405]

Starting to believe that no debates actually benefit Beto.

[NowThis 931]

don't have anyone wear a Beto shirt or hat to the polling stations as they may be turned away. Conversely, encourage Cruz supporters to wear all kinds of Cruz gear. 

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[RDCanecutter 26853]

19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 if you've been convicted of a sex crime or abuse of a minor, a day care or school can ask about that, etc.,

motherfucker, i don't show up where you work trying to get you fired, so how bout you do the same for me?

[JimmyJames 12271]

2 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

Trust me, if you know the names of the two main candidates in the race, you are ahead of lots of people. When I was at UT, it turned out that maybe 3 out of 20 students in one of my classes had even voted in that year's election. I stopped class and trooped them down to the WW1 memorial behind the Littlefield Fountain, where I had them apologize, one by one, to the dead.

Kind of weird.

Also why are you liking all of brothahorns stupid ass posts in this thread? 

[Brisketexan 106621]

1 minute ago, RDCanecutter said:

motherfucker, i don't show up where you work trying to get you fired, so how bout you do the same for me?

Don't worry, you're from Alabama.  There are no sex crimes there.  Just "things we just won't mention at Sunday supper, okay?"

[Horndog 2293]

17 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Starting to believe that no debates actually benefit Beto.

I dunno.  The thought of these two on stage together, where the contrast is so stark, makes me think about the 1960 Kennedy/Nixon debates.  Cruz would look like an even bigger sniveling, snot-spewing, fetid, odious wretch of a human being replica than he actually is.  

Edited August 27, 2018 by Horndog

[RDCanecutter 26853]

Just now, JimmyJames said:

Kind of weird.

Also why are you liking all of brothahorns stupid ass posts in this thread? 

Because I fucking feel like it. Y'all rat-packers trying to neg everybody out of existence are weak.

[JimmyJames 12271]

Just now, RDCanecutter said:

Because I fucking feel like it. Y'all rat-packers trying to neg everybody out of existence are weak.

K 

[RDCanecutter 26853]

Just now, JimmyJames said:

K 

Cool.

[Message Board User 12405]

This is about as pointed a criticism of Cruz that I've heard Beto say so far...

 

[Brothahorn 10096]

You have got to be kidding. Are you even from Texas? You'd rather keep Cruz for 6 more years and reward his total lack of integrity and scruples than fire him, because of Lance Armstrong and some fucking okeydoke about gun bullshit? Seriously, man. You are being played for a sucker. What on earth would be worse than Ted Cruz? Do you not understand how bad at his job this guy is?

Bookmarking so I give you a proper response tonight.

Kind of weird.
Also why are you liking all of brothahorns stupid ass posts in this thread? 

Why would you even worry about something like that? Do you feel sad that groupthink is not 100% in this thread?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

[Message Board User 12405]

9 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

I agree.  For one, this race is actually trending his way so no need to rock the boat.  Second, if they debate he will be the more affable guy on stage, but he will also be forced to talk about issues where his positions will give Texas voters pause.

His platform may be popular with this board and with a lot of Texans, but the platform still isn’t a winner with the majority here.  He can win by being positive, likable and “not Ted Cruz” if the election is a referendum on Cruz.  What he’s doing now accomplishes that.  Debates just give that right leaning Texan  who is personally disgusted by Cruz more opportunites to rationalize their way into, “He may be a spineless scumbag, but at least he won’t vote to let the government into my medicine / kill babies / grab my guns / [insert other talking point about The Left].”

And you can tell that Cruz desperately wants Beto to engage him and Beto is still pretty much ignoring him on the campaign trail and in town halls - Cruz' name isn't even brought up at these events (which must gall the hell out of Cruz).

On a debate stage, they'll be forced to interact and you know that Cruz is going to go after Beto with both barrels from the first minute in an attempt to get under Beto's skin.  Yes Cruz will look evil and reptilian if he does that, but even most of his supporters recognize that he's an evil retile who sells out his own family if it means a few more votes.  He's already unlikeable so he doesn't lose much by being...um...unlikeable in a debate.

It'll be must-see TV.

[JimmyJames 12271]

8 minutes ago, Brothahorn said:

Bookmarking so I give you a proper response tonight. Why would you even worry about something like that? Do you feel sad that groupthink is not 100% in this thread?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk
 

Not worried or sad. Just asking questions...

[chainsaw 10244]

Is there a libertarian candidate?  Beto should just book debates with that guy and leave an empty chair for snotface.

[RDCanecutter 26853]

1 minute ago, JimmyJames said:

Not worried or sad. Just asking questions...

Well then, to give you a more polite answer, part of what I liked about Old Shaggy was that there were cranky bastards on there, you could disagree with them 100%, but you had to deal with it because it was truly hard to crowd-source them. It made the place more entertaining.

I didn't "like" Rocko, or Swam, but I was sorry to see them get run out of this site. I tried to give Swam a ton of rep on his last day, and I don't think I ever agreed with a thing he said.

And hell, I actually think Brotha is somebody I could have a beer with whether we agree or not. So if we're playing rep-stratego, I'll throw some there to try to keep the place more varied.

Finally, isn't there some damn Code of Honor that short of "go kill yourself" or similar, anything goes neg-rep-free in Cloak Room?

[Brothahorn 10096]

Not worried or sad. Just asking questions...

Really. You sure about that? Because you sure felt the need to go looking and then ask questions.

[relapse98 634]

4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Is there a libertarian candidate?  Beto should just book debates with that guy and leave an empty chair for snotface.

So, apparently Neal Dikeman (Class of 98, whoop!)  is the libertarian candidate and we also have the independents Carl Bible, Jonathan Jenkins and Bob McNeil.

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

15 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Well then, to give you a more polite answer, part of what I liked about Old Shaggy was that there were cranky bastards on there, you could disagree with them 100%, but you had to deal with it because it was truly hard to crowd-source them. It made the place more entertaining.

I didn't "like" Rocko, or Swam, but I was sorry to see them get run out of this site. I tried to give Swam a ton of rep on his last day, and I don't think I ever agreed with a thing he said.

And hell, I actually think Brotha is somebody I could have a beer with whether we agree or not. So if we're playing rep-stratego, I'll throw some there to try to keep the place more varied.

Finally, isn't there some damn Code of Honor that short of "go kill yourself" or similar, anything goes neg-rep-free in Cloak Room?

Good answer and I agree with you. I too was sad to see swam and rocko go. Even started #unbantheswam to no avail. Not as familiar with brothahorn but if he’s not a troll as you say I’ll give him some rep to counter the negs I recently gave him. 

[RDCanecutter 26853]

1 minute ago, JimmyJames said:

Good answer and I agree with you. I too was sad to see swam and rocko go. Even started #unbantheswam to no avail. Not as familiar with brothahorn but if he’s not a troll as you say I’ll give him some rep to counter the negs I recently gave him. 

Dang, man, now that we have been talking, I feel sorry that I cussed you. I take it back.

Probably time for me to push away from the keyboard.

[Celery Man 21076]

there should be a way to give a passive "fuck you" to a dishonest post that doesn't result in banning when done en masse

[Longhorn_Fan68 34079]

If Ted and Beto do debate they should have someone ask them a question in spanish. Starting with Beto, have a whole conversation in spanish, then turn to Ted and say "Mr. Cruz, your response?"

Mostly for the lulz.

[Bozo_Casanova 26773]

Because I fucking feel like it. Y'all rat-packers trying to neg everybody out of existence are weak.

Agree. I like Brothahorn and appreciate his point of view even when he’s being a chump like this thread.

[thepop 4418]

3 hours ago, Message Board User said:

This is one poll - before we start heading into the bunker, take a breath and wait for this result to be replicated.  If the next couple polls show a similar result, then it'll be time to don the hard hat.

imgur

[Ten Bears 2499]

1 hour ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Ted should use this for his campaign theme and pay me an outrageous consultant fee. 

 

Fuck all that shit.  Lemmy was in the Wanna be a Cowboy video???

[atomheartbevo 90547]

Cruz will try and avoid the debates.  

He won’t gain any new followersthese days, but trying to throw out a zinger at Beto gives Beto a chance to turn it into a soundbite that will pull more undecideds/independents in.