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2018 Hurricane Season

Lobwedgephil

By Lobwedgephil
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Lobwedgephil

Lobwedgephil 1139

Posted
Posted

Fuck this prediction, but they were dead on for 2017. 

 

OCALA, FLA. (PRWEB) MARCH 09, 2018

The United States - Puerto Rico - and the Northern Lesser Antilles were ravaged by major impact hurricanes in 2017.  Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) prepares accurate preseason landfall predictions and tracking webinars for 11 United States hurricane zones. Since the disastrous 2017 hurricane season - GWO has received many requests to extend predictions into the Caribbean Lesser Antilles region. 

GWO is reacting to the requests by instituting 2018 hurricane prediction zones for the Lesser Antilles – the Eastern Gateway for storms entering the Caribbean. GWO’s Zone 15 includes the Leeward Islands group that encompasses the Virgin Islands southward to the Island of Dominica. Zone 16 includes the Windward Islands from Martinique south to Tobago and Trinidad. Predictions will be available March 12th and can be acquired at GWO 2018 Hurricane Landfall Predictions and Webinars.

Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) is a working partner with the International Hurricane Protection Association (INHPA) - and GWO was cited by news media as being the “only organization that accurately predicted the hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season - from beginning to end. When the 2017 hurricane season began last year - nearly every major hurricane prediction organization predicted a normal 2017 hurricane season - but only GWO GlobalWeatherOscillations.com had an accurate forecast”. 

Professor David Dilley – Senior Research and Prediction Scientist for Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) – not only predicted that 2017 would be the most destructive and costly hurricane season since at least 2005 – but also predicted where the storms would make landfall (Texas above Corpus Christi – south tip of the Florida Peninsula – Eastern Louisiana to Alabama). GWO has consistently released the most accurate preseason and landfall predictions by any organization during the past 10-years 

  • Prediction: 2018 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season -

(which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) 
Professor David Dilley says that “some United States zones and the Caribbean Islands are currently in their strongest hurricane landfall cycle in 40 to 70-years. This is a Natural ClimatePulse Cycle that produced extremely active and dangerous hurricane conditions in some zones back in the 1950s and 60s in the Lesser Antilles – and in the 1940s in the United States.

Mr. Dilley predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017 - but some hurricane landfalls will occur in different locations this year. You can expect 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, potential for 4 United States hurricane landfalls – 2 of which will likely be major impact storms. And once again – some Caribbean Islands will have another dangerous season. On the average, the entire Atlantic Basin has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes.

The reason for another destructive hurricane season is 3-fold. Although ocean water temperatures have cooled across the Eastern Atlantic - the water temperatures continue to run warmer than normal from just East of the Lesser Antilles and especially in the Caribbean region and the Atlantic near the United States. This is very similar to the ocean temperatures of last year, and this will again be conducive for tropical storms and/or hurricanes forming and/or strengthening near the Lesser Antilles and close to the United States. Mr. Dilley also expects ENSO Neutral Conditions (no El Nino) that are conducive for active seasons, and the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure Center will again be in a favorable location – thus allowing more named storms to strengthen as they move east into Caribbean region and toward the United States. 

By utilizing ClimatePulse-Technology developed by Professor David Dilley, GWO issues very accurate preseason hurricane landfall predictions well before the beginning of the hurricane season. The model is based on natural rhythm cycles that control climate cycles and hurricane landfall cycles. 

Global Weather Oscillations offers 3 levels of predictions – ranging from Basic to the Advanced Prediction that includes weekly outlook webinars and daily tracking webinars when a storm is likely to pose a threat to one of our prediction zones. By incorporating GWO’s preseason zone predictions for landfalls into our tracking webinars – GWO has the ability to provide much more lead time for storm preparation and safety.

 
 
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Hate

Hate 20102

Posted
Posted

Some names from the 2017 season have been retired.

https://www.click2houston.com/news/harvey-others-officially-retired-as-names-of-hurricanes

 

HOUSTON - The World Meteorological Organization announced Thursday that the name Harvey has been officially retired for use as a hurricane.

The center also retired the names Irma, Maria and Nate.

Harvey was the second costliest storm behind Katrina.

Sixty-eight people were killed in Harvey.

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miguelito

miguelito 11204

Posted
Posted (edited)

There's already a potential cyclone near America's Wang:

 

Quote

The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1, but we could see a tropical or subtropical depression form in the Gulf of Mexico this week, off the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A broad area of low pressure has developed over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, in association with an upper-level low pressure system, and this area of disturbed weather is expected to drift slowly northward and stall out off the coast of the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the low is expected to be absorbed by a trough of low pressure passing to its north, resulting in the low moving ashore along the Florida Panhandle, on either Wednesday or Thursday. As this low meanders over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this week, the system has the potential to gradually acquire tropical characteristics and become warm-cored, potentially becoming a tropical or subtropical depression.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/gulf-mexico-disturbance-bringing-heavy-rains-florida-and-may-develop?cm_ven=hp-slot-1

 

may13-sat.jpg

Edited by miguelito
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted
On 4/12/2018 at 10:04 AM, Hate said:

Some names from the 2017 season have been retired.

https://www.click2houston.com/news/harvey-others-officially-retired-as-names-of-hurricanes

 

HOUSTON - The World Meteorological Organization announced Thursday that the name Harvey has been officially retired for use as a hurricane.

The center also retired the names Irma, Maria and Nate.

Harvey was the second costliest storm behind Katrina.

Sixty-eight people were killed in Harvey.

Harvey should be retired, because HARVEY IS FUCK YOU...

 

In the immortal words of PHDFrankie 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

3 parts to hurricane season 'round here:

1) quick-forming-right-off-the-Gulf-coast TS's, usually make land 'afore they git too bad (late May-mid-June)
2) tropical systems generally forming in Western Hemisphere (western Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf); can pack a punch but usually aren't too bad (mid-June-mid-July)
3) long track systems which develop off Africa (once the Atlantic gets a little warmer) and come across the Atlantic to ??? knows where (late July-late Sept)

3) usually does the most damage (Harvey, Ike, Rita, Katrina, Camille were all storms after mid-August).  Mainly cornhole watching after mid-July.

No way to know but my guess is that we won't see a Texas storm as bad as Harvey for years (one which has a bizarre track and stalls).

That said, we've of course been lulled to sleep the last 60 years and all kinds of shit has been built up on the coast right in the path of the bowling ball.  After a pretty active 50's and early 60's, the cycle (as predicted) lessened quite a bit through the 70's, picked up a bit again in the 80's, and hasn't been particularly active nor inactive since then.  However, the cycle was supposed to pick up 15-20 years ago (2005 was seen as a harbinger) but it generally got really quiet - until last year.

'Cane scientists have long been predicting a constant more active era, which just hasn't panned out.  We've had really active years - like last year - but then we'll see 2-3 years of almost nothing.  There are so many variables which direct hurricane formation and tracking that it's still a relative crap shoot, but the people at GWO seem to be making the best use of new technology while not making overgeneralizations.  The factors which guide formation and tracking will vary a lot, so it's really hard to say this year will be a repeat of last.  My guess is not so much.  Look for signs in about a month.. see what's forming over here, then it'll give at least some idea of what might be in store for long-track season in a few months.

 

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HouTex

HouTex 1847

Posted
Posted
We're back:
As of 18:00 UTC May 21, 2018:

Location: 17.8°N 84.7°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 120 NM
Untitled-1.jpg
 


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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Total clockwork... a depression forms in the Gulf in late May.  Did last year, did the year before, etc.

Although this one looks to be a mild spanker of MS east into FL, I would bet that another will form in the Western Gulf within 2 weeks.  There's already a low that's going to form out there by tomorrow (S of LA), whether it goes tropical is unknown.

We always seem to get a very early, mild storm in the Gulf before the real action starts later next month.

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simplicity

simplicity 9

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Total clockwork... a depression forms in the Gulf in late May.  Did last year, did the year before, etc.

Although this one looks to be a mild spanker of MS east into FL, I would bet that another will form in the Western Gulf within 2 weeks.  There's already a low that's going to form out there by tomorrow (S of LA), whether it goes tropical is unknown.

We always seem to get a very early, mild storm in the Gulf before the real action starts later next month.

Este, sucks for any memorial day plans though.

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simplicity

simplicity 9

Posted
Posted
00
ABNT20 KNHC 232308
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
710 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the
Florida Straits. Continued slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near
the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the
eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over much of Florida
and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information
on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 AM EDT on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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austingirl

austingirl 2184

Posted
Posted
On 3/26/2018 at 8:39 PM, slorch said:

fuck hurricanes.

 

scourge of the earth when it comes to weather.

I will say that at least we know they're coming a few days out. Tornadoes scare the shit out of me especially considering we don't have basements.

On 5/14/2018 at 2:18 PM, WBT said:

 

I assumed he was joking with the Ireland reference.

On 5/21/2018 at 6:40 PM, The Tower said:

Ddwg6joXUAAUPeP.jpg 

Are you kidding me? My parents are moving their RV up to Crystal in a couple of weeks - they leave it there all summer. I'm still surprised it has never gotten much damage these last few years.

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simplicity

simplicity 9

Posted
Posted

Its happening

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although
showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain
primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive
for development through early next week, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday
afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across
western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast
into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will
steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to
Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on
these threats, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
 

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Steamboat1874

Steamboat1874 4031

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, pearlandhorn said:

Not trying to be a dick but I could use a band of showers from that storm for my lawn.  But that's it, just a small band.  Maybe 2 or 3 inches.  Fuck off hurricanes.

If you live in Texas all you are going to get is hot ass motherfucking winds blowing hard from the northeast.

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