2018 Hurricane Season

[llanoflash 151]

 

Stephanie seems fun.

[Stella Link 534]

On 9/16/2018 at 9:56 AM, Moby Ric said:

So Isaac is dead?  

It appears so.  Weather guys now say there's only a 10% chance it will form in the gulf.  Best case scenario it will give us a chance for some showers this weekend, then go away and die. 

Edited September 17, 2018 by Stella Link

[NeverMarryAStripper 21781]

Mike Seidel is trying to maintain his footing on wet grass, after reporting on-air until 1:00 a.m. ET this morning and is undoubtedly exhausted.”

Was it a 15 hour shift? If so the two guys behind him are lucky they weren’t shot.

[jofus 2265]

joyce going for the reach around?

[Hate 20103]

We are not usually watching the tropics this time of the year in Texas, but this is something to keep an eye on:

 

Side Note: Some of the models are indicating an area of low
pressure or tropical disturbance moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico by mid next week. At this time, the track and direct
impacts of this feature cannot be determined. Please continue to
monitor your local NWS forecast. 

[Dewey 3280]

According to my local news guy, that yellow x, if it gets back together, will head towards Fla.

[Sbbruin 21708]

On 9/17/2018 at 11:53 AM, llanoflash said:

 

Stephanie seems fun.

[Stella Link 534]

48 minutes ago, Dewey said:

According to my local news guy, that yellow x, if it gets back together, will head towards Fla.

According to MY local weather guy, if that yellow X gets its act together, it will hang a left and go into Mexico.

 

Edited October 4, 2018 by Stella Link

[Stella Link 534]

On 10/4/2018 at 12:35 PM, Dewey said:

According to my local news guy, that yellow x, if it gets back together, will head towards Fla.

Looks like your local news guy > than my local weather guy....

[phdhorn 6224]

Shit's goin' to Florida.  That's it.

[Dewey 3280]

Unfortunately it has to go somewhere

[Zonahorn 8079]

Mike forecasted by everybody to be a major cane now.

[Lobwedgephil 1139]

Forecasting Cat 3 at landfall, hopefully weakens as bit. 

[Dewey 3280]

Last week around Wednesday or Thursday, not many gave it a chance, 30 knot wind sheer and all. Fuck.

[BabaBooey 131]

NM

Edited October 8, 2018 by BabaBooey
NM

[BabaBooey 131]

Edited October 8, 2018 by BabaBooey

[Zepol87 9171]

Just got word that a few guys on my team will have to go out. I went to NC so I think I will miss this one. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Mother fuck you mike!

[Bert Orange 1115]

So Rosemary Beach is going to become Rosemary Lake?

[phdhorn 6224]

4 hours ago, Dewey said:

Last week around Wednesday or Thursday, not many gave it a chance, 30 knot wind sheer and all. Fuck.

When you see those "chance of development" models with the funny looking MSPaint-looking hand-drawn amateur looking area, or just read the "chance of development" stuff, I'd say it's wrong about 55% of the time.  The technology to predict development is still not real good.  They go by essentially seeing what the weather conditions will be in the area (shear, what systems are around it, etc.) a week out.  But what actually makes a hurricane form vs. one that doesn't is still not real predictable.

I usually don't pay attention to them, but I unfortunately did with Harvey - they gave that like a 10% chance of forming up to about  3 days before it did, had it going into southern Mexico or even below that, and petering out.

Yeah, that went well.

ANY time a system forms in the Gulf, if it lasts longer than a week in any form, it's a candidate in my book.  This one is on about its 8th day.

[Neonmoon 38127]

Sooooo...my flight to Pensacola on Friday going to happen or no? 

[Bert Orange 1115]

Is it a pontoon plane?

[phdhorn 6224]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Sooooo...my flight to Pensacola on Friday going to happen or no? 

My guess is yes, but barely.

[Neonmoon 38127]

1 hour ago, Bert Orange said:

Is it a pontoon plane?

Can we try a belly landing?

57 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

My guess is yes, but barely.

I’m gonna hold you to this

 

[phdhorn 6224]

26 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I’m gonna hold you to this

If I'm wrong and you die, well sorry.  You lose, though.

Edited October 9, 2018 by phdhorn

[chainsaw 9837]

 

[Lobwedgephil 1139]

6 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Sooooo...my flight to Pensacola on Friday going to happen or no? 

Storm should be long gone by then, as for damage, depends. 

 

[Hollywood 329]

I am supposed to fly into Fort Lauderdale tomorrow around 1p. FLL largely won't be affected, but I assume that we will just fly way the fuck around it? First time flying over or around a major hurricane, so not sure how this works. 

[Dewey 3280]

You'll have the wind at your back for most of the flight.

[phdhorn 6224]

39 minutes ago, Hollywood said:

I am supposed to fly into Fort Lauderdale tomorrow around 1p. FLL largely won't be affected, but I assume that we will just fly way the fuck around it? First time flying over or around a major hurricane, so not sure how this works. 

Usually if you're at altitude, they don't really go around them much.  There's a good breeze up there but nothing unusual.  I've flown above hurricanes a bunch.  Generally as long as you stay away from the eye area, where big thunderstorms can reach higher than the average 35,000-40,000 feet where commercial airlines cruise, there is really no difference between flying above a hurricane and any other storm.  Most of the turbluence of a hurricane is thrust downward towards the surface.  Yes there is air that filters up and out from a hurricane, but for the most part that air is stable and not all that fast once it gets above the worst of a hurricane (about 20,000 feet).  Sometimes there is turbulence above a hurricane, but again, most of it is below the average cruising altitude of a hurricane.  I actually flew through and above Harvey last year (when it was downgraded, but still a strong storm), and it wasn't any different than flying through a rainstorm.  Of course this was away from the center of circulation, which was still pretty potent - don't want to fly through that. Here's a shot I took:

In the eye area, however, it can get pretty nasty - not necessarily enough to cause a plane to crash (remember that hurricane hunters have been flying through the worst of hurricanes for over 70 years and have never lost a plane!) but enough to scare the shit out of you with this or that jolt.  However, again, other than actually having to land in or near the eye, hurricanes aren't particularly a problem for flying over.

Edited October 9, 2018 by phdhorn

[Zepol87 9171]

Flying from Richmond to Dallas close to Florence made for an entertaining first hour of the flight. 

[Hollywood 329]

1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

Usually if you're at altitude, they don't really go around them much.  There's a good breeze up there but nothing unusual.  I've flown above hurricanes a bunch.  Generally as long as you stay away from the eye area, where big thunderstorms can reach higher than the average 35,000-40,000 feet where commercial airlines cruise, there is really no difference between flying above a hurricane and any other storm.  Most of the turbluence of a hurricane is thrust downward towards the surface.  Yes there is air that filters up and out from a hurricane, but for the most part that air is stable and not all that fast once it gets above the worst of a hurricane (about 20,000 feet).  Sometimes there is turbulence above a hurricane, but again, most of it is below the average cruising altitude of a hurricane.  I actually flew through and above Harvey last year (when it was downgraded, but still a strong storm), and it wasn't any different than flying through a rainstorm.  Of course this was away from the center of circulation, which was still pretty potent - don't want to fly through that. Here's a shot I took:

In the eye area, however, it can get pretty nasty - not necessarily enough to cause a plane to crash (remember that hurricane hunters have been flying through the worst of hurricanes for over 70 years and have never lost a plane!) but enough to scare the shit out of you with this or that jolt.  However, again, other than actually having to land in or near the eye, hurricanes aren't particularly a problem for flying over.

Cool, crashing is fine. I just don't want to be stuck on a plane for 6 hours. 

[Dewey 3280]

You're the kind of person that just wants to see results, good or bad.

[Hollywood 329]

Flight from just a bit ago. Will be interested to see my flight path tomorrow. 

[jdhorn92 1538]

On 10/8/2018 at 5:51 PM, Neonmoon said:

Sooooo...my flight to Pensacola on Friday going to happen or no? 

Yep should be no problem.  I'm at PNS now flying to ATL.  The Wed AM flights to ATL are cancelled (Delta), but by Friday should be no issue. Landfall is 120 east of here.

[3adays 454]

I have a buddy and his girl who are on vacation in Destin. I told him to GTFO yesterday morning, but they just moved hotels instead.  Hope he understands what they’re in for. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

20 minutes ago, 3adays said:

I have a buddy and his girl who are on vacation in Destin. I told him to GTFO yesterday morning, but they just moved hotels instead.  Hope he understands what they’re in for. 

Especially when he becomes a daddy in late June

[Lobwedgephil 1139]

Appears to be going through rapid intensification this evening. Not going to be good. 

[Digdogger 1343]

50 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Especially when he becomes a daddy in late June

He told him to get out, not pull out

[3adays 454]

57 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Especially when he becomes a daddy in late June

Becoming Daddy again at 45 yrs old, he might just want to let himself go out to sea. 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5782]

1 hour ago, 3adays said:

I have a buddy and his girl who are on vacation in Destin. 

[Wally Fairway 5521]

phd has spoken

 

[jdhorn92 1538]

2 hours ago, 3adays said:

I have a buddy and his girl who are on vacation in Destin. I told him to GTFO yesterday morning, but they just moved hotels instead.  Hope he understands what they’re in for.

That was a really bad move.  Most of the power lines along 98 in Destin are above ground and relatively old.  Destin is going to get nailed as is 30A.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

revisiting this with Florence and other hurricanes. Riding it out seems pointless. especially on vacation. you have nothing to gain other than saying you rode it out. now you have no food, power, water and your rental car is now flooded

[conVINCEd 21468]

Told my mother-in-law in Port St. Joe, who lives 2 blocks from the beach, to GTFO yesterday.  She finally GTFO today.  I have a bad feeling that a trip to the Florida panhandle is in my near future.

[Telegraph_it 3354]

My beach house could be right where the eye makes landfall /humblebrag

But really. Now I have to make plans to go to Florida and see what Michael left behind. Those frikin dunes better hold up. 

Edited October 10, 2018 by Telegraph_it

[Rip76 4913]

Cat. 4 now.

130mph.

[SimonBolivar 10911]

So this just kind of happened huh. Hate to see what this does to Apalachicola. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21052]

10 hours ago, 3adays said:

I have a buddy and his girl who are on vacation in Destin. I told him to GTFO yesterday morning, but they just moved hotels instead.  Hope he understands what they’re in for. 

bold strategy, let's see how it works out for them

[clapclapclap 9000]

Mike's Hard Hurricane