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2018 Hurricane Season

Lobwedgephil

By Lobwedgephil
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Posted
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https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/five-people-including-an-indian-national-dead-40-missing-in-yemens-socotra-after-cyclone-mekunu-1857773

Dubai:  Five people were killed and at least 40 missing on the Yemeni island of Socotra on Friday as Cyclone Mekunu pummelled the area then made its way towards the Arabian Peninsula's southern coast. The five dead included four Yemenis and one Indian national, residents and medical sources told Reuters, while the missing including Yemenis, Indians and Sudanese.

Yemen declared a state of emergency on Thursday for Socotra, which lies between southern Yemen and the Horn of Africa and is renowned for its unique animal and plant life.

Largely untouched by Yemen's three-year-old war, it is under the control of the internationally-recognised government whose president, Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, is in exile in Saudi Arabia.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

Posted
Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Stoopid question - what is the difference between a tropical storm and a subtropical storm?

Not stupid, and not real easy to answer, at least in terms of understanding, but I'll try.

Most storms going across the U.S. including winter (snowstorms, lows bringing rain, frontal systems bringing severe weather, etc. get their fuel from a "cold core".  That is, many of these storms pull down cooler air from Canada and it mixes in with the warmer air coming in from the South, which is usually humid.  These two air masses mix in the storm, the warmer air rises, cools, and produces turbulence.  So a "regular" storm feeds cold air into warm, produces instability, and you get whatever.

Tropical systems form too far south to pull in really cold air, but they pull in very warm air off of the ocean (usually 80° or above to "go tropical") and they retain a warm core of air from surface almost all the way up the storm (think of a tall cylinder of same temp air).  These are "warm core" storms.  They really don't evolve from the interaction of cold air (or any other system really). They fuel up because they have so much warm air, which also rises and forms thunderstorms, that they just blow up.  They would normally just kind of die down/out, but because the storm is "warm core" there is very little instability, mostly in the form of mid or high level horizontal winds, that serve to scatter and expend the energy (when there is, the storm shears off and dies out) - the cylinder of air is uniform and basically remains vertically intact when a storm finally goes "tropical" - there's nothing to chop up that tall vertical cylinder.  Tropical systems are remarkably uniform in temperature well up into the storm.. the surface temp is not a lot higher than the temp at 10,000 feet.  Because of this, the fueling can keep going, not "instability" itself out... it just gets more and more wound up (somewhat due to the Coriolis Effect and wind pattern movements, again this ain't easy stuff) and just keeps cranking until something interferes with it (land, another system, etc.).  Note that almost all tropical systems die out into "cold core" normal lows because they eventually get messed with colder air at higher latitudes.

Alberto is "subtropical" because it shares features of both cold core and warm core (tropical) storms.  What takes over (like multiple personalities) depends on where it is and what the winds/temps are like.  There's been enough cold air and wind to keep Alberto from having a uniformly warm core from surface to top.  However the water is actually warmer near the U.S. coast (shallower, sun can heat it up more deeply), so it's likely that Alberto will become fully tropical in the next half day or so.  But then it'll hit land and quickly restore a colder core at the surface and just diminish into a rainy system as the winds die down and the rain empties out.

Other than that, about tree fiddy.

Edited by phdhorn
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Pancho

Pancho 46315

Posted
Posted

yo, weather bros

I'm supposed to head to Puerto Vallarta next Wednesday, but I hear there's a possible developing tropical depression/storm about to develop right behind TS Aletta right off the coast of Guatemala.  What are the chances this A.) develops and b.) impacts PV?

 

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Lobwedgephil

Lobwedgephil 1146

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Posted 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Aletta located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo
Mexico.

1. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
centered a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for
development this weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Pancho Negro said:

yo, weather bros

I'm supposed to head to Puerto Vallarta next Wednesday, but I hear there's a possible developing tropical depression/storm about to develop right behind TS Aletta right off the coast of Guatemala.  What are the chances this A.) develops and b.) impacts PV?

 

1) No way whatsoever right now to know where that 2nd one is going to go, sorry.
2) Chances of it steering NE into the Mexican coast are about 8% (92% of them go NW beyond Mexico, into the Pacific)
3) I'd probably just go and fuggedabouddit.

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Newdoc

Newdoc 3511

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Pancho Negro said:

yo, weather bros

I'm supposed to head to Puerto Vallarta next Wednesday, but I hear there's a possible developing tropical depression/storm about to develop right behind TS Aletta right off the coast of Guatemala.  What are the chances this A.) develops and b.) impacts PV?

 

You're going to die in there, all of you!  Have a good time!

henrykane3.jpg

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Pancho

Pancho 46315

Posted
Posted (edited)

Looks like Hurricane Bud will not ruin our trip to Puerto Vallarta, but the GFS is showing we will be flying back to a hurricane in Houston on Sunday???

 

EDIT:  It was the other day.  Now I'm not seeing it. 

Edited by Pancho Negro
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Newdoc

Newdoc 3511

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, George said:

Going to Punta Cana, DR at end of the month. To far out to forecast?

Reliably. Yes. Anything out past 10 days is rolling dice.  Lots of models to make you wonder.   They usually don't verify.  I think even in Hurricane season there is still about a 2% a high risk area is affected on any given day (or something like that).  

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Dewey

Dewey 3332

Posted
Posted

Channel 2 is where its at, I dont live in Houston, but I do appreciate the morning traffic updates. Every now and again, they say something about the weather.

Looks like 20% of a TS, lots of rain for 3 days, starting Sunday

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NorthLoop

NorthLoop 14466

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, George said:

Going to Punta Cana, DR at end of the month. To far out to forecast?

I went there on my honeymoon in October. Both of those really bad ones that came through in September missed it. The locals say that Punta Cana never gets directly hit due to the islands to the east of it (which isn't true, but historically PC has been mostly spared bad ones). 

 

Also the beaches there are fuckin awesome. Enjoy!

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pearlandhorn

pearlandhorn 3343

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Dewey said:

Channel 2 is where its at, I dont live in Houston, but I do appreciate the morning traffic updates. Every now and again, they say something about the weather.

Looks like 20% of a TS, lots of rain for 3 days, starting Sunday

Channel 11 has the best meteorologists in the state in my opinion. David Paul (UT alum) and brooks garner are fantastic. They’re policy is to monitor and inform and not buy in to the crazy. I follow both of them on Twitter. They typically update every 2 or 3 hours if there’s something potentially going on.

Edited by pearlandhorn
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