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2018 Hurricane Season

Lobwedgephil

By Lobwedgephil
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  • 2 weeks later...
Hate

Hate 20232

Posted
Posted

A potential system in the Atlantic this morning has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next few days.  It probably won't develop much further as it is expected to hit some shear as it nears the Caribbean.  

two_atl_2d0.png

  

Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a
small area of low pressure and a tropical wave located between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains well organized,
and a tropical depression could form at any time.  This disturbance
is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.  However, in a few days,
upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable, and the system
is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure before it
reaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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C-Man

C-Man 27684

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Scientists at Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project have decreased their forecast and now believe that 2018 hurricane season will have below-average activity.

According to the forecasters, the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is currently much colder than normal, and the odds of a weak El Niño developing in the next several months have increased.

With the decrease in the forecast, the probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean has decreased as well, report Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell.

The Colorado team now estimates that the rest of 2018 will see additional 4 hurricanes (median is 6.5), 10 named storms (median is 12.0), 41.50 named storm days (median is 60.1), 15 hurricane days (median is 21.3), 1 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane (median is 2.0) and 2 major hurricane days (median is 3.9).

The forecast cites a 22 percent probability of a direct hit to the eastern United States; the average is 31 percent.

This revised prediction is a decrease from the group’s prior seasonal forecasts issued in April and June and there remains some uncertainty with this forecast. This forecast is based on an extended-range early July statistical prediction scheme that was developed utilizing 36 years of past data.

In explaining the changed forecast, they note that the tropical Atlantic is much colder than normal. “A colder than normal tropical Atlantic provides less fuel for developing tropical cyclones but also tends to be associated with higher pressure and a more stable atmosphere,” the forecasters note. “These conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.”

Also, the odds of a weak El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in 2018 have increased somewhat. If El Niño were to develop, it would tend to lead to “more vertical wind shear in the Caribbean extending into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they are trying to develop and intensify.”

At the start of the hurricane season in June, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated total of 10 to 16 named storms, tropical-strength or stronger, would likely affect the U.S., Mexico and the Caribbean. NOAA predicted that one to four of them might become major hurricanes.

 

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2018/07/05/494264.htm

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, simplicity said:

Not so fast says the GFS

Q2nkEAj.gif

Meh, gonna fire up in the Western Caribbean but poop out by the Windwards, as is common this time of year.

That blowup off the Carolina coast looks a little more promising, but probably not going to get too bad, the water there isn't quite as warm as the lower latitudes. Temps are between about 78° and 82°, borderline too cold to sustain surface strength.  Hopefully it'll stay mild and head out NE.

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  • 1 month later...
Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

Posted
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Models keep pushing back when Lane gets blasted by shear, it was originally Tuesday, but now its Thursday or Friday. Puckering intensifying for Hawaii. The hope now is for lane to get blasted by shear and then for the ridge to build back in before he gets the chance to run over Hawaii. 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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1 hour ago, Calihorn said:

Models keep pushing back when Lane gets blasted by shear, it was originally Tuesday, but now its Thursday or Friday. Puckering intensifying for Hawaii. The hope now is for lane to get blasted by shear and then for the ridge to build back in before he gets the chance to run over Hawaii. 

This got me strangely aroused...

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