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Any Pete Rose Types Around Here?

Seasick Sailor

By Seasick Sailor
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Lurch

Lurch 5,922

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Pre-Crane I was a die hard Stros fan my whole life, and dropped $100 every year on my Vegas trips betting them to win it all.  They were always towards the bottom of the sports book lists.  Crazy to see them w the favorites now.

I hope you take them all down!

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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3,747

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13 minutes ago, uoftorange said:

I have never been able to buy into futures bets.  Love the aspect of winning and losing (preferably more of the former) in a more time efficient manner

I still bet on games almost daily. Usually a -1.5 with decent odds or a two-team parlay. I like to put something small on futures bets though. Hit the 'Stros at +1200 to win it all last year.  

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shakahorn

shakahorn 1,645

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This is the time of year I love best.  I try to find one team that I think will be hot to start the year, and then bet that team ML every game for like a month.  Basically looking for someone to go out 20-5 or something like that, so even if the odds are -220 with the frontline starters, it still makes money.  The last two years, I did this with the Cubs.  2016 was awesome, 2017...not so much.  The corollary is finding someone who will go the other way and bet against every game.  It does require discipline and a certain degeneracy to be able to get plays in every day.

This year, not sure.  Thinking Dodgers to win every game and maybe Miami to lose every game.

But generally my strategy is simple and not all that clever.  Good pitching beats good hitting.  Don't bet on bad teams against good teams, even when the bad team is throwing a good pitcher.  Only time to bet on a bad team is vs a bad team when one team is throwing a good pitcher and the other team is not.  It's 162 games, conserve your money.  Some days, you won't see any good plays.  Don't bet those days.  Limit your plays to like 3 games a day.

This is my first post on this shithole.  Good day assholes.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9,428

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1 hour ago, longhorndude said:

I had the Astros to win the World Series at 12/1 last year and it worked out well :)    I may have to put some on them at +550 this thIs year for good luck.  

16/1 here!

That shit paid for my trip to LA for games 6 & 7 (glad they ended up winning).

you may be right about betting again for good luck 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,139

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I like early season unders for good pitching matchups.  I've done well picking my spots with these.  Sprinkle a little on the first 5 to limit the risk/exposure to a pen blowing up on you. 

Started season 3-0 taking unders in each of the first three SF/LA games this season.  Honestly, they were all pretty easy wins.  I don't know exact numbers but I've been up doing this the past few years.  

Fresh arms early in the year and many batters getting their first look at an good opposing pitcher. 

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shakahorn

shakahorn 1,645

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On 3/31/2018 at 10:13 PM, ChiTownDoc said:

I like early season unders for good pitching matchups.  I've done well picking my spots with these.  Sprinkle a little on the first 5 to limit the risk/exposure to a pen blowing up on you. 

Started season 3-0 taking unders in each of the first three SF/LA games this season.  Honestly, they were all pretty easy wins.  I don't know exact numbers but I've been up doing this the past few years.  

Fresh arms early in the year and many batters getting their first look at an good opposing pitcher. 

I like the strategy.  Might do that tomorrow when the 1's get their turn again.

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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3,747

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2 hours ago, VolenteHawk said:

The price for backing the Angels when Ohtani pitches are way out of whack.  I faded him last night and am going to keep doing that until the market adjusts.

 

Yep. Took the Sox ML last night and made a killing. I am not sure it's just Ohtani either. The Angels are favorites again tonight against a seemingly improved Porcello.

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shakahorn

shakahorn 1,645

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At this point in the season, I'm fading the Cubs, Marlins (duh), KC (duh) and Cincy.  I'm riding Arizona, LAA, and Colorado.  I switched from riding the Dodgers to generally fading them.  I've been fading the Pirates waiting for them to fall apart, but that hasn't worked out.  I'm doing much better on the fading part than the riding part.

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Dr. Teeth

Dr. Teeth 5,843

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I am in Vegas for work and put a lot of money on Cubs -1.5 yesterday. Greatest overruling by replay ever. That was the weirdest way I have won a bet. It is funny when you are cheering for a 2 run win in the middle of a sportsbook.

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shakahorn

shakahorn 1,645

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For the past couple seasons, I've changed my strategy to risking the same amount per game instead of trying to win the same amount per game.  It's certainly helped to over an entire season but yeah, winning 1/2 a unit sometimes feels hollow, although only losing a unit when you're laying -200 doesn't sting so bad.

Do you guys have any particular strategy you follow in terms of risk units vs win units?

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,139

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5 hours ago, shakahorn said:

For the past couple seasons, I've changed my strategy to risking the same amount per game instead of trying to win the same amount per game.  It's certainly helped to over an entire season but yeah, winning 1/2 a unit sometimes feels hollow, although only losing a unit when you're laying -200 doesn't sting so bad.

Do you guys have any particular strategy you follow in terms of risk units vs win units?

I’ve changed a lot.  I only play 10% of a ‘real’ bet on my action plays.  I used to flat bet everything but really only liked a few of those games. I’d end up down after juice.  Now I’m running in the green fairly often.  Real plays are $500-$1000.  If I am just drinking and want action I keep it to $100-$200. 

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Dr Fear

Dr Fear 1,268

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Quote

The Miami Marlins pulled off one of the biggest baseball upsets of the past decade Wednesday night, when they took down Clayton Kershaw and the heavily favored Los Angeles Dodgers 8-6.

The Dodgers closed as high as -450 favorites at Las Vegas sportsbooks, making them one of the largest favorites in recent history

 

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/23325147/miami-marlins-victory-los-angeles-dodgers-wednesday-was-biggest-baseball-upset-las-vegas-books-2007

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Blotto

Blotto 23,487

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Just stumbled across this obscure(to me anyway) site that posts lots of stats on 1st inning and 1st 5 inning performances by pitcher and team. I've been fucking around with 5 inning bets, so it's useful to me.

http://www.armadillosports.com/links/

Cinci o2 -110 jumps out based on a quick check of Lauer's game log and boxscores.

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TornACL

TornACL 7,698

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On ‎6‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 2:01 PM, Blotto said:

Just stumbled across this obscure(to me anyway) site that posts lots of stats on 1st inning and 1st 5 inning performances by pitcher and team. I've been fucking around with 5 inning bets, so it's useful to me.

http://www.armadillosports.com/links/

Cinci o2 -110 jumps out based on a quick check of Lauer's game log and boxscores.

I have been playing some of these 5 inning bets and doing ok. Particularly if Jeff Samardzija (Giants) or Matt Moore (Rangers) are starting.

Tonight I'm on a 2 game parlay, Dodgers Over 2 (first five innings) / A's Over 2.5 (first five innings). Just for a few bucks for fun.

 

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shakahorn

shakahorn 1,645

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17 hours ago, TornACL said:

I have been playing some of these 5 inning bets and doing ok. Particularly if Jeff Samardzija (Giants) or Matt Moore (Rangers) are starting.

Tonight I'm on a 2 game parlay, Dodgers Over 2 (first five innings) / A's Over 2.5 (first five innings). Just for a few bucks for fun.

 

Yeah it kinda seems like there is no easier money than betting against Samardkdfadkljfalda.

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NOMAAA

NOMAAA 1,696

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20 hours ago, TornACL said:

I have been playing some of these 5 inning bets and doing ok. Particularly if Jeff Samardzija (Giants) or Matt Moore (Rangers) are starting.

Tonight I'm on a 2 game parlay, Dodgers Over 2 (first five innings) / A's Over 2.5 (first five innings). Just for a few bucks for fun.

 

add james shields to that list and we are playing the same games.

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