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2026 CFP National Championship - Indiana vs. Miami

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  • SlingeroGuitaro
    SlingeroGuitaro

    indiana was the number 1 party school in america the 4 years i was there. lets see if they still have it. boss gave me the rest of the week off. flying to indy tomorrow and meeting up with a bunch o

  • ATXbronco
    ATXbronco

    I CHOKE MY WIFE WHEN MY SON TOUCHES DOWN

  • SlingeroGuitaro
    SlingeroGuitaro

    Yeah under di nardo and hoeppner in the early 2000’s. Hoeppner really began the change that has exploded under cignetti. The buy in from the players and more importantly the student body is unreal. G

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#5

Would like to see Indiana win a close one but if they are to lose want Miami to go ahead and blow them the fuck out (unlikely). Already tired of the Cig shit.

#6

The Cignetti story is cool and I’d like to see a non blueblood win it all even though I’d be very very jealous. Miami is still kinda a villain and I like that too. I guess I’ll go for IU because they really are the best team in the country.

  • Author
#7

(The Athletic) CFP national championship predictions: Indiana vs. Miami expert picks

It’s been more than 20 weeks since then-No. 20 Indiana quietly beat Old Dominion and No. 10 Miami dramatically beat Notre Dame to open the 2025 college football season. The Hoosiers (15-0) and Hurricanes (13-2) are now the last two teams standing, set to battle for the College Football Playoff national championship at 7:30 p.m. ET Monday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. Will Indiana complete an improbable perfect season and become college football’s first first-time national champion since Florida in 1996?

Or will Miami return to the top of the sport on its home field by winning its first national title since 2001 and sixth overall? Whether you ask The Athletic’s staff, our readers, our projections from Austin Mock or oddsmakers, the consensus is clear: Indiana is expected to win. The Hoosiers are favored by 8.5, per BetMGM. Here’s who our writers and editors are picking, plus some analysis from our readers:

National championship predictions

Person

Pick

Score

Sam Khan

team-logo-176-50x50.pngMiami

24-20

Chris Kamrani

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

34-23

Stewart Mandel

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

24-7

Scott Dochterman

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

34-16

Bruce Feldman

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

27-17

Mitch Sherman

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

24-17

Justin Williams

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

38-20

Matt Baker

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

24-14

Austin Meek

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

31-14

Eric Single

team-logo-176-50x50.pngMiami

9-7

David Ubben

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

31-18

Mitch Light

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

24-13

Chris Vannini

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

31-10

Pete Sampson

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

27-13

Ralph Russo

team-logo-176-50x50.pngMiami

31-30

Manny Navarro

team-logo-176-50x50.pngMiami

31-17

Joe Rexrode

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

34-10

Antonio Morales

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

23-16

Kate Hairopoulos

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

31-10

Grace Raynor

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

35-24

Cameron Teague Robinson

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

24-7

Ira Gorawara

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

24-10

Matt Brown

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

30-17

Daniel Shirley

team-logo-176-50x50.pngMiami

24-23

Staff

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

79.2%

Readers

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

77.7%

Mock's model

team-logo-189-50x50.pngIndiana

71.0%

Sam Khan Jr.: The Hoosiers’ domination of Alabama and Oregon has seemingly turned the title game into a coronation rather than a competition in the eyes of some. But Miami will give Indiana all it can handle. The three Indiana wins decided by single digits (Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State) all had one thing in common: The opposing defense pressured Fernando Mendoza on at least 40 percent of snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. The Hurricanes, who possess one of the best defensive fronts in the country, pressure QBs at a 40.6 percent rate, fifth best in the FBS. Miami will harass Mendoza early and often and turn this game into a rock fight. And yes, Indiana is also one of the best at pressuring quarterbacks, but the Hurricanes have been the best all year at protecting their quarterback. The game is simple. Get after the other quarterback and protect yours. Because Miami has been elite at both all year, give me the Canes. You can say it now: The U is back. Miami 24, Indiana 20.

Chris Kamrani: If Indiana plays the way it has most of the year, the Hoosiers should win handily. They’re a more well-rounded team. They’re elite in all three phases. They have the Heisman winner and just dominated the only team in the CFP field I thought could send them home bummed. Maybe I’m reading into Miami’s struggles against Ole Miss too much, but the head and the heart say it’s Indiana comfortably. Too many things have to go right for Miami to win this game. The Hurricanes need an all-world performance on the biggest stage from Carson Beck, offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson has to not be so reliant on gimmick play calls and the two star defensive ends have to cause four quarters of hell for Mendoza. In addition, you need the Hoosiers to beat themselves by playing sloppy often. And Curt Cignetti ain’t standing for any of that. Indiana 34, Miami 23

Stewart Mandel: Miami’s defense is too good for Indiana to move the ball at will like it did against Alabama and Oregon, but Indiana’s defense is too good for Miami to move the ball at all. The Canes are at their best when they’re running the ball down peoples’ throats, but no one has been able to run the ball on the Hoosiers. So maybe the score doesn’t get out of hand as much this time, but IU will be in control most of the game. Indiana 24, Miami 7

Scott Dochterman: I’ve seen Indiana up close in tight finishes against Ohio State and Iowa and in blowouts against Illinois and Alabama. Each time, Mendoza was the reason for that success. He made impact throws late in the fourth quarter to pull out one-score victories and was virtually perfect against the Illini and Tide. If he isn’t slingin’ it on Monday, I could envision a path of victory for Miami. But Mendoza tips the field. The Hoosiers are the most complete team in recent memory. If they get rocked for a possession or two, they regather and recover. Miami may have an edge with its outstanding defensive line, and receiver Malachi Toney is a difficult matchup in space. But I can’t get past issues in the margins like penalty disparity (26.9 per game for Indiana, 57.1 for Miami) and field-goal inequity (17-19 for Indiana, 18-24 for Miami). The Hurricanes will struggle to run on Indiana and are susceptible to big passing plays. If Miami plays mistake-free and controls the line of scrimmage, I still see Indiana pulling out a close win. But I think the Hoosiers force turnovers and rattle off a few fourth-quarter touchdowns to win decisively. Indiana 34, Miami 16

Bruce Feldman: According to coaches who faced Indiana this year, the biggest challenge for Miami is: Can the Canes be patient? Oregon couldn’t and got blown out. Miami has shown it is comfortable grinding out long drives behind its power running game. But running against coordinator Bryant Haines’ defense has been almost impossible. Not just this year, but over the past four years, when he’s had top-five rushing defenses each season dating to his JMU days. Whether Mario Cristobal’s guys will be able to do something no one else has this year will determine whether Miami has a shot at pulling the upset. Slowing down Mendoza won’t be easy. Miami got pressure on Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and rattled him, sacking him five times and picking him off twice. It’ll be a lot harder to do that with Mendoza. Coaches told me you can affect Mendoza, but you can’t rattle him. He just comes back the next series and gets right back to work. Ultimately, I think it’s Indiana’s year and the Hoosiers cap off a dream season in Mendoza’s hometown. Indiana 27, Miami 17

Mitch Sherman: Indiana is the more complete team. The Hoosiers play a more consistent brand of football. They almost never beat themselves. IU won me over in the way it steamrolled Oregon. The wins against Alabama and Ohio State were impressive, but I felt the Hoosiers had finally met a foe in the Ducks with an emotional and motivational edge. Obviously, I was way wrong. So no longer will I doubt Indiana — or anything that Cignetti says from this point until he is done talking. I’m dating myself here, but I’ve sat in the stadium — not this stadium — to watch Miami play at home for the national championship. I’ve seen a legion of visiting fans invade in surprisingly large numbers and disturb the Miami home energy. I’m envisioning a repeat of the 1995 Orange Bowl. Right down to the fourth-quarter comeback and the final score. Indiana 24, Miami 17

Justin Williams: I think Miami can win this game … but no chance I’m picking the Hurricanes. Not after Indiana’s storybook rise, led by Cignetti’s cocked eyebrows and Mendoza’s motivational aura. Miami is stout in the trenches on both sides of the ball and has difference-makers such as Toney and Mark Fletcher Jr. and a very experienced quarterback in Beck. But the Hoosiers are riding one of the most balanced, fundamentally sound and dominant waves the sport has seen in recent decades. IU has the best turnover margin and third-down conversion rate in college football, and the second fewest penalty yards per game. Miami will need to capitalize on some costly mistakes to pull the upset, but the Hoosiers just don’t make them. Indiana has proven itself by now, but it still shouldn’t be taken for granted just how impressive that proof of concept is. I’m not about to pick against that narrative. Indiana 38, Miami 20

Matt Baker: Indiana is the better team, which means Miami probably needs some fortuitous breaks to win. Unfortunately for the Hurricanes, Indiana doesn’t make many mistakes. Miami’s Fiesta Bowl penalties reminded us that the Hurricanes still have the ability to beat themselves (as they have for much of the past two decades). Reuben Bain Jr. and Akeem Mesidor are elite, but I’m not sure Miami’s defensive front will generate enough pressure to force the Hoosiers into the kinds of costly mistakes they haven’t made all year. My best argument against Indiana is that it’s really hard to go 16-0, but that’s not very compelling. Although Miami should be competitive, I expect Indiana to feel in control for most of the game, completing one of the most incredible sports stories of my lifetime. Indiana 24, Miami 14

Austin Meek: Of the 12 teams in this year’s CFP, Indiana had the best record, the best resume and the best story. The only reason the Hoosiers weren’t a bigger favorite to win it all is the logo on their helmets. If Indiana’s wins against Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon didn’t convince you that the Hoosiers are the best team in college football, nothing will. Of course, the best team doesn’t always win, and the Hurricanes are talented enough to make things difficult on the Hoosiers, especially with this game being played in Miami’s home stadium. But it will take a mistake-free game, something no team has been able to accomplish against Indiana. For me, it comes down to this: Is Miami the team I would trust to play a flawless game? No, it’s not. Taking nothing away from the Hurricanes’ performance in the CFP so far, they’ve won by forcing the other team to make mistakes while overcoming their own, but I’m not sure that formula works against Indiana. Indiana 31, Miami 14

Eric Single: Who needs instant classics? I’m expecting a nervy, mistake-filled and rigid ending to a thrilling CFP because the last two teams standing, for all their fearless wins in recent weeks, haven’t been in this exact spot in decades, if ever. With 10 days to stare at each other, overthinking will be abundant and points will be at a premium. And after dropping at least three interceptions in the semis, Miami gets a friendly bounce or two at home. Miami 9, Indiana 7

David Ubben: Miami simply cannot win a national title before it wins an ACC title. The Hurricanes punch out a fumble on the opening drive and Michael Irvin goes rogue, crashing the sideline and presenting Mesidor with the last Turnover Chain. Cristobal, who infamously killed it upon his arrival in 2022, is furious. But the vibes are immaculate. Until Indiana happens. The Hoosiers score on their next four drives and hold Miami to four field goals over the rest of the game. Indiana 31, Miami 18

Mitch Light: Cignetti and Mendoza grab most of the headlines — and deservedly so — but the Indiana defense has been so good all year. The Hoosiers have allowed more than 20 points only twice, in the 27-24 win at Penn State and last week’s dominant Peach Bowl win over Oregon, and have held nine teams to 10 points or fewer. This unit will be tested by Miami’s big and talented offensive line and a running game. But the Hoosiers have passed every test to date, and there is no reason to believe that will change. Indiana 24, Miami 13

Chris Vannini: Indiana doesn’t have a weakness and is the cleanest team we’ve seen in years. Can Miami be perfect? The Canes have done a good job fixing their weaknesses in this Playoff run. They’ll have to avoid the Indiana avalanche that is bound to come — and avoid a turnover on the first drive of the game. Miami is able to lengthen possessions and shorten the game in a low-scoring first half, but Indiana adjusts and pulls away in the second half. Indiana 31, Miami 10

Pete Sampson: Indiana plays football like it’s a killer robot, which gets lost in the facial expressions of its head coach and quarterback. For all the quirks and idiosyncrasies around the Hoosiers, the fact they simply do not beat themselves gets overlooked. In a matchup where Miami probably needs to win the turnover margin, it’s hard to see Indiana giving quarter. Meanwhile, Miami plays football like disaster could strike at any moment. Unless the Hoosiers step out of character on Monday night, the sport’s robotic overlords will be hoisting the trophy. Indiana 27, Miami 13

Ralph Russo: The great thing about being part of a multimedia company is it gives me multiple platforms to make predictions. On “The Audible,” I gave a winner and score to my co-hosts, Bruce Feldman and Stewart Mandel, to use during a show previewing the game that I was not a part of. So there is a prediction out there from me that may or may not match what I’m writing here. Variety is the spice of life, they say. My skepticism of Indiana has gone from healthy to modest to now just full on commitment to the bit. Miami wins its sixth national title the way it did its first against mighty Nebraska in the Orange Bowl in the 1983 season: Upsetting an unbeaten No. 1 that’s being talked about as one of the great teams of all time in the Hurricanes’ home stadium. Miami 31, Indiana 30

Manny Navarro: Unlike our buddy, Ralph, I’ve already put my prediction in print and in audio form and I’m sticking with it. The Hurricanes are going to overwhelm Indiana at the line of scrimmage with violence. They already beat Ohio State with it. Now, they do it to the Hoosiers. Miami 31, Indiana 17

Joe Rexrode: Let’s go back through a season’s worth of smart Indiana opinions. Great story last season, looking at 8-4 this season, which by the way is pretty freaking good for Indiana! … If Iowa almost got them, how humbled are the Hoosiers going to be at Oregon? … Lucky to pull out that win at Penn State … This is a Playoff team but Ohio State will roll in Indy. … Give me Alabama. … Did you see that Oregon defense against Tech? Ducks in a close one. … So, all due respect to Miami and those who think the Hurricanes can pressure Mendoza and run the ball and get big plays from Toney and have a chance, but … no. Sorry. Not falling for it. I’d take the Hoosiers over the Dolphins at this point. Indiana 34, Miami 10

Antonio Morales: Miami is strong on both lines, so it won’t get blown out like Indiana’s past two opponents. This will be a competitive game. But you can’t make mistakes against Indiana, and the Hurricanes have shown a propensity for that throughout the Playoff, whether it’s been missed field goals, fumbles, penalties, etc. In a game like this, I’ll lean toward the team I expect to play a clean, more mistake-free game. Indiana 23, Miami 16

Kate Hairopoulos: Can the Hoosiers do it a 16th time? For as dominant as they’ve looked, are they bound to finally stumble, for Mendoza to turn it over in a key spot or the receivers who catch everything to finally drop a pass or two? Have they seen a player like Toney? Are they ready for the U’s play up front? It’s easy to think it’s all been too much, too good to be true, even as the results say otherwise and predictions pile up in favor of Indiana. The unexpected happens in sports, which is why we love them. But not on Monday. The best team in the country finishes the deal. Indiana 31, Miami 10

Grace Raynor: Indiana has been a juggernaut all year and that’s not changing Monday night. After watching the Hoosiers dominate Oregon from start to finish in the Peach Bowl last week, it’s impossible to bet against them. Mendoza made everything look easy, the Hoosiers didn’t (and don’t) make mistakes and the defense was smothering. It’s been a blast watching the Hurricanes make their run after they were almost left out of the Playoff entirely, and it’d be fitting to watch them win it all at home. It just doesn’t seem likely given how elite Indiana has been. Indiana 35, Miami 24

Cameron Teague Robinson: This feels a lot like last year’s title game when Ohio State’s Playoff dominance made it hard to envision an upset happening. The Hoosiers aren’t the scariest offense in the country, but they are extremely efficient and Mendoza knows where to go with the ball on every play. The only way to slow him down is to get pressure on him, which is Miami’s strength. This will be the best front Indiana has played since Ohio State, but I think Indiana’s mix of a balanced rushing attack and quick RPO game will nullify Miami’s pass rush, for the most part. Where I think Indiana has a chance to break this game open is on defense. The Hoosiers’ linebackers stop the run, shed blocks and defend the pass well. They are the heart and soul of that defense and should be able to contain Fletcher and force Beck to beat them. I like Indiana by three scores — I don’t think Miami has enough offensive firepower outside of Toney. Indiana 24, Miami 7

Ira Gorawara: It’s alarming how unalarmed Miami fans seem. As one fan told me this week, “Indiana don’t scare me. They ain’t beat nobody with a defense like ours.” Maybe Indiana hasn’t had to stare down a defense with Miami’s teeth. But the Hoosiers have aced every other stress test: hostile road crowds, fourth-quarter fights, opponents bent on causing discomfort. Miami can preach toughness all week, but Indiana’s already made a season out of alchemizing confidence into steel. All the Hoosiers do — and will do — is maintain discipline long enough for impatience to betray the other side. That’s the chilling curse of Cignetti’s crimson. Something about the Cs. Indiana 24, Miami 10

Matt Brown: A partial list of teams that have more wins than Indiana in the 21st century: Ball State, Wyoming, Central Michigan, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky, Army, Rutgers — and every other Power 4 team not named Duke, Colorado, Kansas or Vanderbilt. And that’s including the 26-2 record Indiana has had since Cignetti arrived. The point isn’t to disparage Indiana; it’s just another way to highlight how truly remarkable the Hoosiers’ run is. Miami has been lost in the wilderness for much of the century, but it still has 88 more wins since 2000. So can Miami stop the greatest college football Cinderella story ever told? Indiana is the better-coached, more-disciplined and stronger-all-around team than Miami. I anticipate a physical rock fight for a while, but the Hoosiers defense will make a game-changing play and then Mendoza will put it away for a championship unlike any we’ve ever seen. Indiana 30, Miami 17

Daniel Shirley: I predicted before the season that Miami would make the College Football Playoff. I picked Miami to win the national title before the Playoff began. So, I have to stick with the Canes tonight, right? You bet. And it might as well be a thriller. Miami 24, Indiana 23

#8

When you win and back up your shit talk like cig has up to this point people get tired of him. I’d take cig at Texas all day long. He’s a bad ass, he’s knows he’s a bad ass, and his team is fucking good and is prepared every game. Miami isn’t beating Indiana.

#9
Just now, Rockethorn1978 said:

When you win and back up your shit talk like cig has up to this point people get tired of him. I’d take cig at Texas all day long. He’s a bad ass, he’s knows he’s a bad ass, and his team is fucking good and is prepared every game. Miami isn’t beating Indiana.

Yep, he not only sits on the pot, he shits in it too. I expect Indiana to win comfortably. This is the best team since that 2019 LSU team, which might be the best ever.

#10
37 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I guess I’ll go for IU because they really are the best team in the country.

Well... we'll see if they are or not.

#11

I think Miami is able to come close to neutralizing the Indiana front on both sides of the ball and makes this a really close game. IMO, Miami covers the 8.5 and has a shot to win at the end. If Wentz is able to play mistake free football or close to it (big if) I think they end up winning and spoiling the fairytale.

#13
16 minutes ago, ITHorn said:

I think Miami is able to come close to neutralizing the Indiana front on both sides of the ball and makes this a really close game. IMO, Miami covers the 8.5 and has a shot to win at the end. If Wentz is able to play mistake free football or close to it (big if) I think they end up winning and spoiling the fairytale.

Wentz?

#14
7 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Mendoza is like a non-overrated Tim Tebow.

In addition to not being overrated, their styles could not be more different.

#15
22 minutes ago, ITHorn said:

I think Miami is able to come close to neutralizing the Indiana front on both sides of the ball and makes this a really close game. IMO, Miami covers the 8.5 and has a shot to win at the end. If Wentz is able to play mistake free football or close to it (big if) I think they end up winning and spoiling the fairytale.

6 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Wentz?

I suppose that would be a good prediction if Carson Wentz was starting at QB for Miami?

#16
2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

In addition to not being overrated, their styles could not be more different.

It's about the constant Jesus talk, positivity, storyline.

#17
3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

It's about the constant Jesus talk, positivity, storyline.

Mendoza is also a closet homosexual?

  • Author
#18

Pete Thamel: Miami-Indiana national title game confidential

MIAMI -- Indiana is on the cusp of capping off one of the most dramatic program U-turns in the history of college football. Miami is on the verge of completing a generational revival, as it has mostly slogged through its existence in the ACC since joining in 2004. The No. 1 Hoosiers (15-0) have been a testament to perfection all season -- they are undefeated, play cleaner football than anyone in the power conferences and have become the fresh face of success in this transient era of college football. The program is seeking its first national title and hasn't finished in the top five since 1967.

The No. 10 Hurricanes bring a superior roster in terms of pure talent, as they've gone from the bubble of the College Football Playoff to positioning themselves with home-field advantage for a shot at the program's first national title since 2001. (The confluence of location and the novelty of the Hoosiers have put the average ticket price hovering around $4,000 on the secondary market.)

Who will win? We polled 25 opposing coaches, scouts and front office members who played against or studied the teams. The results were resounding, with 21 of 25 respondents picking Indiana. Why the Hoosiers? And what's Miami's path to victory as nearly a touchdown underdog? The NFL scouts and opposing coaches/assistants break down the key factors looming over the game.

Who has the talent advantage?

Maybe the biggest compliment to the insta-juggernaut Curt Cignetti has created at Indiana? The same scouts that almost unanimously favor Indiana also acknowledge Miami has a roster with more NFL talent. How distinct is this advantage from a pure talent perspective? Using NFL draft picks as a barometer isn't a perfect metric. This variable is tricky, as there are players with draft decisions who could decide to return to school.

But Miami projects to have 12 draftable players, although they'll end up with fewer if the likes of tailback Mark Fletcher, left tackle Markel Bell and Ahmad Moten Sr. return, as the school has indicated to scouts. Indiana's reality is closer to six players drafted this year. (Ohio State had 14 players drafted last year, and typically double-digit draft picks is a hallmark of a title contender.) Scouts and coaches point to the trenches as both Miami's strength and likely advantage, as four of Miami's five offensive linemen project as draft picks.

But the coaches also point out that Indiana has beaten lines with better talent all year, and they wouldn't be surprised if that's the case Monday night. Carson Beck projects as a third- or fourth-round pick, but scouts wonder if this push to the title game, and a big game on Monday, might boost his stock. There are at least six NFL teams with overt needs at quarterback -- Miami, New York Jets, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Vegas and Arizona -- and Beck or Penn State's Drew Allar is likely to be the third quarterback off the board.

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the presumptive No. 1 pick and by far the best prospect on the field. Other Hoosiers who'll hear their names called include star receiver Elijah Sarratt, corner D'Angelo Ponds and linebacker Aiden Fisher. None of those three are likely top 50 picks. "Miami has better personnel," said an opposing coach. "But because Miami is limited in what they do schematically, I think Mendoza will have a good day. They just need to protect him."

What is Miami's path to victory?

The joke among coaches is that if Miami is going to win, it's going to be the shortest title game in history. Miami huddles, and often in the College Football Playoff didn't approach the line of scrimmage until there were about 15 seconds left on the play clock. Miami dominated time of possession against Ole Miss, controlling the ball for 41:22 of the game clock. It had four drives of more than 13 plays. While that time of possession came in part because of Ole Miss' tempo, the Canes will need the tenor of this game to be similar.

A peek at what it needs to look like for the Hurricanes came on Oregon's second drive against Indiana last round. After Dante Moore threw a pick-six on the opening drive, he calmly executed a 14-play, 75-yard drive to tie the game that took nearly eight minutes off the clock. Miami offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson -- an old Air Raid disciple -- will need to stay patient, run the ball and take what's available.

The barometer early will be Miami's run game. Fletcher has 58 carries for 395 yards in the playoff, an average of 6.8 yards per carry. He has moved piles of defenders with such consistency, it's as if he's angling for a Caterpillar NIL deal. "I think Miami will shorten the game and run the ball," said a veteran NFL scout. "I do think it's going to be a close game. Ultimately, the Indiana quarterback is going to make more throws on third down."

Right tackle Francis Mauigoa is the anchor of Miami's O-line, as he projects as the highest draft pick on Miami's offense. (Freshman Malachi Toney is the most talented player, but he's not draft-eligible.) At 6-foot-6 and 335 pounds, Mauigoa might end up as a guard in the NFL. But he's a road grader who'll need to exploit an Indiana defensive line that has lost two key defensive line stars, Kellan Wyatt and Stephen Daley, to injury. One scout notes Mauigoa has the raw power and anchor to have a "high ceiling" in the NFL. He'll be needed to dominate the point of attack to help drain the clock and keep this game low-scoring.

Can Miami have an Ohio State replay?

Perhaps the biggest statistical anomaly in this postseason came in Miami's victory over Ohio State in the quarterfinals. The Hurricanes ended the game with zero penalties. They were the first team in CFP history to not commit a penalty. Indiana's identity revolves around clean, mistake-free football. Miami's penchant for penalties has hounded it this season, other than that Ohio State game. Miami combined for 21 penalties that cost them 163 yards in losses to SMU and Louisville.

The numbers bear this out as one of the game's biggest statistical discrepancies. Indiana is No. 2 nationally in fewest penalty yards, with 26.9 per game. Miami is No. 85 with 57.1 yards. Per ESPN Research, in four of Miami's six one-score games this year, Miami had at least nine penalties. None loomed larger for the Hurricanes than an unnecessary roughness call on defensive lineman Marquise Lightfoot that extended SMU's game-tying drive that forced overtime in Miami's loss in Dallas.

Indiana's defense has been particularly efficient, as they've been called for just 13 penalties as a unit all year. Army is No. 1 with seven. A place to watch Monday night will be the offensive line. Indiana has not been infallible there, as it had seven pre-snap penalties in its win at Oregon. Six of them were false starts and another was a delay of game. Could similar issues loom if Miami fans can make crowd noise a factor? (The crowd projects as a 50-50 split, with the way tickets have been divided.)

Miami's offensive line has been a strength, but it is not mistake free. It has been penalized 37 times this season, which is fourth most in the FBS, per ESPN Research. The Hurricanes have had 24 false starts, which is second most in the FBS. Miami had three false starts against Ole Miss. Miami needs to play as it did against Ohio State to pull the upset.

The difference-maker on Indiana's defense

One player coaches and scouts pointed to as a difference-maker is Indiana linebacker Aiden Fisher. He looks up to former Carolina Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly and has enjoyed Kuechly's ability to diagnose and predict plays pre-snap on ESPN's "MNF Playbook with Next Gen Stats." "Just the way he sees the game is special," Fisher told ESPN. "I actually kind of adapted some of his things this offseason during my notes and just how he breaks film down, how he sees the game."

Fisher has earned a reputation around the Big Ten for gleaning the opposition's plays through formations and movements. He says he'll get close to the line of scrimmage to hear what quarterbacks say pre-snap under center, store it away and use it later in the game to call out plays. He said he didn't want to "give my secrets" for what he's looking for against Miami. But he did have a favorite play this season, when he called out an upcoming tight end screen for Iowa based on the motion.

He screamed out the play to linebacker Rolijah Hardy, who tackled Iowa's DJ Vonnahme for a 1-yard loss. "That's one of my favorite plays for the season, and I didn't make it," he said. "[Hardy] blew it up for the TFL and you can see me on film kind of pointing at my head. So that's what gets me excited during football games. I can kind of call out your bluff and things like that." Fisher is a former high school quarterback. And his understanding of that side of the ball helps him hear the quarterback's verbiage -- "different things like protections, audibles and checks" -- and use that information to predict plays later in the game.

Indiana defensive coordinator Bryant Haines calls Fisher "an elite mind." "The thing about a quarterback and him walking up to the line of scrimmage is the quarterback is actually conveying a real thing," Haines told ESPN. "The words matter. It start with an R and L (for right and left), East Coast, West Coast. Any team has like these conceptual things behind what they're saying, and he can start to isolate some of those. If you add that to the formational tendencies, he's going to have a pretty good idea of what you're thinking here."

The Heisman winner vs. a banged-up Miami secondary

The uncertainty in the secondary for Miami looms over this game, especially in the first half. Miami defensive back Xavier Lucas will miss the first half of the game after a targeting call. Miami has another defensive back, Damari Brown, who hasn't played since Nov. 29 and isn't certain to play, as Mario Cristobal referred to him as "day-to-day." Both are key members of the secondary, as Lucas has 11 starts and Brown has five this season. They are heavy parts of Miami's corner rotation.

Another key corner, OJ Frederique, played just seven snaps against Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl. He told ESPN that he's ready to play and "fully healthy." He returned for the playoff against Texas A&M after not playing for nearly two months. He's dealing with a nagging leg injury. That's going to leave Miami likely relying on some less experienced defensive backs, especially until Lucas returns in the second half. True freshman corner Ja'Boree Antoine played 24 snaps against Ole Miss and 14 on defense, which were his third most in a game this year and most in a game of consequence.

Just as Ole Miss went at Antoine when he entered last week, expect Indiana to try and exploit Miami's secondary flux early in the game. Freshman Chris Ewald, who has played in four games and 27 total snaps, and Jadais Richard, a Vanderbilt transfer who has played in four games and has 21 snaps this year, are players to watch. Miami could also shuffle more experienced players from nickel or safety to help out.

Don't be surprised to see Mendoza and Indiana's deep receiving corps look to find weaknesses in Miami's back end. Opposing coaches have viewed it as Miami's biggest weakness all year. "Both offenses will know what's coming because the defenses are in the same tree," said an opposing coach. "If you know what the other team is doing, who is more dangerous? I think Indiana when they know, they make this a high-scoring game. Miami isn't built to score like that."

#19
12 minutes ago, field said:

I suppose that would be a good prediction if Carson Wentz was starting at QB for Miami?

Wrong Carson, still same turnover issues though.

#22
9 minutes ago, The_highest_of_fives said:

Uh oh.

4 hour game incoming. I wish they would pull the same shit they did on Charlie Strong vs oklahoma state - on Indiana. That would be hilarious.

#28

I’m rooting for Miami, Old Big East and all that but, I won’t be upset if Indiana wins.

I think the Miami team that beat Ohio State can win but, if the one that came out with all the penalties against Ole Miss is there tonight I think they’ll lose.

It’d be kind of cool to see Michael Irvin up on the roof of The Clevelander at 4 a.m. yelling, “I am a golden God”, like in Almost Famous.

almost famous GIF by hero0fwar

#31

Georgia is not playing Miami.

So the only possible choice here is to pull for anyone not named Miami.

#32
2 hours ago, The_highest_of_fives said:

Uh oh.

not kevin marr. same crew that worked the aggy Miami game I believe.

#33

Interesting stats (at least to me):

Rushing yards vs. aggy:

Miami - 175

Texas - 218

Rushing yards vs. Ohio State:

Miami - 153

Texas - 170

Miami's OL and star RB are all better than what Texas rolled out this year (even allowing our leading rusher to transfer), so it should have been expected that Miami would run on all of their playoff opponents to date.

Indiana will be without their best DL who suffered a freak injury celebrating.

Will that be enough to enable Miami to run on Indiana?

#34
2 hours ago, jw4381 said:

4 hour game incoming. I wish they would pull the same shit they did on Charlie Strong vs oklahoma state - on Indiana. That would be hilarious.

damn bro, what did Indiana do to you ?

#38

If Cristobal wins do I have to hear that he’s gods gift to football and we should hire him over Sark in 10 different threads?

#40

It was posted already in the CFP thread, but figured this warranted a reminder here. Coaches Film Room is back, including Chizik and Gundy.

After a four-year hiatus, fan favorite Coaches Film Room returns to the CFP MegaCast on ESPNU. Zubin Mehenti hosts alongside former head coaches Steve Addazio, Dave Clawson, Gene Chizik and Mike Gundy, as well as rules analyst Jerry McGinn. The crew will be live from ESPN’s Bristol headquarters to provide unique insight and analysis surrounding Monday night’s matchup.

CFP_Megacast_PROMO_INDIANA.png

#41

If Carson Beck wins a fucking natty I'm gonna vomit. Worst title winning QB since who? I'm going back last 10 to 15 and can't think of one worse.

It'll be indisputable evidence that 5th year plus QBs are the way to go if you're a playoff contender.

#42
1 minute ago, BurgleBro said:

If Carson Beck wins a fucking natty I'm gonna vomit. Worst title winning QB since who? I'm going back last 10 to 15 and can't think of one worse.

It'll be indisputable evidence that 5th year plus QBs are the way to go if you're a playoff contender.

Uhhhh...Will Howard...

#45
8 minutes ago, BurgleBro said:

If Carson Beck wins a fucking natty I'm gonna vomit. Worst title winning QB since who? I'm going back last 10 to 15 and can't think of one worse.

It'll be indisputable evidence that 5th year plus QBs are the way to go if you're a playoff contender.

If McCarthy was any better it's pretty marginal and Beck is better than either of the '15 tOSU guys.

#46
15 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

Uhhhh...Will Howard...

Howard was jaggy but he didn't outright suck imo. Beck has looked awful at times.

#48
6 hours ago, 'stache said:

The Cignetti story is cool and I’d like to see a non blueblood win it all even though I’d be very very jealous. Miami is still kinda a villain and I like that too. I guess I’ll go for IU because they really are the best team in the country.

Are you happy with your new coach and QB? Mestemaker seems like a talented QB.

#50
4 minutes ago, TreatyOak said:

Are you happy with your new coach and QB? Mestemaker seems like a talented QB.

Yes, very happy so far, including with our portal class. There is obviously NIL money. We've signed plenty of P4 transfers along with the haul of UNT players Morris brought with him. Only big concern right now is Skylar Cassidy as defensive coordinator. His numbers look good but I watched their last few games after the hire and the defense did not look very good. We did not bring in as many UNT defenders as offensive players and again I like the portal class including defense so I'll give him a chance. I think we'll definitely make a bowl next year, how much better we do than that, no idea.

Edited by 'stache

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