I searched and didn't remember a thread talking about prediction markets like poly market, kalshi and PredictIt and others.

I don't really understand how people don't realize that it's a complete scam. Are people just so blinded by wanting money for nothing that they believe they will get rich on these things?

I also want to discuss what would happen if the US just decided fuck this it's illegal. Why wouldn't they do this and what would happen? Is enforceability a nightmare? Does anyone know any of this shit or are we all just on a bullet train for doom.

Bullet train for doom. Apparently suicide by users of these and sports betting sites has gone up significantly in recent years. These companies are trash.

1 minute ago, Orale said:

Bullet train for doom. Apparently suicide by users of these and sports betting sites has gone up significantly in recent years. These companies are trash.

I don't really understand the brazen illegality of this and why the risk tolerance for these people is like they can't get it all clawed back.

It is kind of interesting to watch this evolve.

You have unregulated gambling at one end of the spectrum and what people consider legitimate investment in debt or equity in regulated stock markets on the other. And regulated gambling at casinos and sports betting sites somewhere in between.

But how far apart are they, really?

People get torqued up about fairly obvious "insider trading" in these "prediction markets," but my first thought is "fuck em, they know this shit is unregulated." But you could actually use that as a rationale to deregulate stock markets. But I guess the capital-raising function of those markets is important enough to national policy to try to regulate them to increase public confidence.

And, afaik, it's really the prediction market that gets screwed the hardest when abused by insider trading.

27 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

It is kind of interesting to watch this evolve.

You have unregulated gambling at one end of the spectrum and what people consider legitimate investment in debt or equity in regulated stock markets on the other. And regulated gambling at casinos and sports betting sites somewhere in between.

But how far apart are they, really?

People get torqued up about fairly obvious "insider trading" in these "prediction markets," but my first thought is "fuck em, they know this shit is unregulated." But you could actually use that as a rationale to deregulate stock markets. But I guess the capital-raising function of those markets is important enough to national policy to try to regulate them to increase public confidence.

And, afaik, it's really the prediction market that gets screwed the hardest when abused by insider trading.

Corey Doctorow put it best. Rich Americans are so rich and have already bought so much shit that all they have left to do is blast it into a bunch of bullshit to overinflate and bet against other rich people.

The problem with these prediction markets is its normies vs rich people who are buying the outcomes to secure even more capital extraction. The system is completely broken because there's no one that wants to get off the ride to give anyone else a turn.

My point is what happens when this actually does have someone with a backbone come in and say no, you can't fucking do this.

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

It is kind of interesting to watch this evolve.

You have unregulated gambling at one end of the spectrum and what people consider legitimate investment in debt or equity in regulated stock markets on the other. And regulated gambling at casinos and sports betting sites somewhere in between.

But how far apart are they, really?

People get torqued up about fairly obvious "insider trading" in these "prediction markets," but my first thought is "fuck em, they know this shit is unregulated." But you could actually use that as a rationale to deregulate stock markets. But I guess the capital-raising function of those markets is important enough to national policy to try to regulate them to increase public confidence.

And, afaik, it's really the prediction market that gets screwed the hardest when abused by insider trading.

From what I've read trying to understand the whole thing myself, the prediction vetting sites encourage ring insider info which make it feel even more scammy imo.

I halfway listened to a Pablo Torre podcast about the prediction markets the other day. My opinion was he didn't push back hard enough against his guest, who is very much rah rah prediction markets. One thing that sticks out was the comment that if you win a lot on Kalshi your account is not going to get cancelled for "too much winning" unlike on the "normal" betting sites. The guest think that's a good thing but it's one of the factors that allows insider trading and cheating to flourish.

"He is the accidental creator of prediction markets. So how does James Surowiecki feel about Kalshi, Polymarket and the wisdom of crowds, now that even the market for a missile launch can be manipulated? On the eve of the Super Bowl, he re-traces the rise of the casino in your pocket, debunks the cult of the CEO... and forecasts the disturbing possibilities when insider trading maneuvers all the way to the White House (or at least The Dark Lord of the Pentagon)."

From what I can gather the juice on them is even worse than sports gambling sites. Which is saying a lot.

Just now, ztejas said:

From what I can gather the juice on them is even worse than sports gambling sites. Which is saying a lot.

A lot worse.

A ton of NBA players have taken out a stake in Kalshi and/or Polymarket. And they are also producing the thing that is being actively gambled on.

It's just sports betting with a suit on

Edited February 7Feb 7 by Captainant

And nothing is going to happen to the industry while MAGA is in charge. Don Jr has been receiving bribes and board seats to ensure it

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

A ton of NBA players have taken out a stake in Kalshi and/or Polymarket. And they are also producing the thing that is being actively gambled on.

It's just sports betting with a suit on

I still can't believe the league is allowing it. How the hell do we know if what we're watching is real and not scripted? The NBA might as well be viewed the same as "pro" wrestling

5 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

I still can't believe the league is allowing it. How the hell do we know if what we're watching is real and not scripted? The NBA might as well be viewed the same as "pro" wrestling

Either way, it's not much of a product.

6 hours ago, immamac said:

its normies vs rich people

Pretty much true of capital markets, too.

Normies can still and do make money, just not as much as the richies. They just don't have access to the opportunities or information that richies do.

To be clear, Kalshi isn’t like a sportsbook- it is one. Over 90 percent of its traffic is sports, the other stuff is just marketing flash ans distraction.

Kalshi argues that unlike a sportsbook, which serves as the “house” and takes punters’ action, it offers peer to peer “contracts” between users and takes a transaction fee for each contract purchased.

Obvious problem: someone has to provide liquidity for the less purchased side of a contract, or else Kalshi can’t offer the action. Kalshi came up with a creative solution. Two contracted entities, one outside (Susquehanna) and now a separate Kalshi subsidiary will make the market and provide liquidity for the opposite side. This is just a sportsbook with an additional, fictitious go between. Also, Kalshi compensates sophisticated bettors to help make markets.

On top of that, they take a fee for your transaction, so you’re getting screwed on the overround AND the “peer to peer” fee. If Kalshi isn’t contracting with you as an institutional market maker or a sophisticated sharp— you’re a mark. And to make it worse, you’re a mark for an unregulated book.

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

To be clear, Kalshi isn’t like a sportsbook- it is one. Over 90 percent of its traffic is sports, the other stuff is just marketing flash ans distraction.

Kalshi argues that unlike a sportsbook, which serves as the “house” and takes punters’ action, it offers peer to peer “contracts” between users and takes a transaction fee for each contract purchased.

Obvious problem: someone has to provide liquidity for the less purchased side of a contract, or else Kalshi can’t offer the action. Kalshi came up with a creative solution. Two contracted entities, one outside (Susquehanna) and now a separate Kalshi subsidiary will make the market and provide liquidity for the opposite side. This is just a sportsbook with an additional, fictitious go between. Also, Kalshi compensates sophisticated bettors to help make markets.

On top of that, they take a fee for your transaction, so you’re getting screwed on the overround AND the “peer to peer” fee. If Kalshi isn’t contracting with you as an institutional market maker or a sophisticated sharp— you’re a mark. And to make it worse, you’re a mark for an unregulated book.

And how the fuck is this legal

22 minutes ago, immamac said:

And how the fuck is this legal

Don Jr. is a “strategic advisor.”

42 minutes ago, immamac said:

And how the fuck is this legal

Unironically, the South Park episode this season isn't a bad explainer. It all gets kicked off when kids start betting if Kyles mom will bomb Gaza or not, and Kyle keeps ending up on the phone with Don Jr. Pretty good episode

Giannis should be banned from the NBA. At the lightest he should serve a lengthy suspension and be forced to vest all his interest in Kalshi

The outrageous Gaza type stuff was always about attention and about pointing to rage-bait futures to say “we aren’t a sports book.”

And of course now Kalshi offers combos (which are for sure not “parlays”) to add to what is not your “betting slip.”

To @TwiceHorn , there are parallels between gambling and investments/financial markets. But there’s also huge differences, in that the outcomes of those investments are tied to real world economic impacts, they offer important opportunities for investors to protect themselves (enabling productive risk-taking) and for price discovery. The same cannot be said—at all— about a Seahawks win, a Pats FG being the first score, and Darnold accounting for more than 14 points. Although, Kalshi has made the mendacious argument that there is.

As for why we are here: we have a scam economy because it’s easier and more profitable to scam if you can get away with it. It’s always been the case that it’s easier to make money off of suckers than to put capital to productive use.

The scam economy leeches managed to convince huge swathes of the public that gambling and other scam/vice industries being tightly regulated was a moralistic assault on their individual freedoms (to lose money to scammers or blow it on mind-altering chemicals and pornography). In fact, the regulation was designed to make sure that the incentives to put capital to use making food and machine tools stayed slightly ahead of the incentives to start a sportsbook.

Edited February 8Feb 8 by 956 Worldwide

2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The outrageous Gaza type stuff was always about attention and about pointing to rage-bait futures to say “we aren’t a sports book.”

And of course now Kalshi offers combos (which are for sure not “parlays”) to add to what is not your “betting slip.”

To @TwiceHorn , there are parallels between gambling and investments/financial markets. But there’s also huge differences, in that the outcomes of those investments are tied to real world economic impacts, they offer important opportunities for investors to protect themselves (enabling productive risk-taking) and for price discovery. The same cannot be said—at all— about a Seahawks win, a Pats FG being the first score, and Darnold accounting for more than 14 points. Although, Kalshi has made the mendacious argument that there is.

As for why we are here: we have a scam economy because it’s easier and more profitable to scam if you can get away with it. It’s always been the case that it’s easier to make money off of su hers than to put capital to productive use.

The scam economy leeches managed to convince huge swathes of the public that gambling and other scam/vice industries being tightly regulated was a moralistic assault on their individual freedoms (to lose money to scammers or blow it on mind-altering chemicals and pornography). In fact, the regulation was designed to make sure that the incentives to put capital to use making food and machine tools stayed slightly ahead of the incentives to start a sportsbook.

I know. Hence why I mentioned a regulated stock market being perhaps an important national interest.

https://kalshi.com/docs/kalshi-fee-schedule.pdf

This shit is bananas.

• 
• BeInCrypto @beincrypto

A viral clip shows White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt abruptly ending a briefing seconds before a key betting threshold was reached.

This fueled concerns over potential insider trading and manipulation in prediction markets.

Traders on Kalshi who bet against this

• 4:21 AM · Jan 12, 2026

• 
• PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader · Jan 7, 2026

Today's White House Press Briefing had a 98% chance of running over 65 minutes - until Karoline Leavitt abruptly ended it with seconds to spare.

Traders on the NO side made 50x in seconds.

15 hours ago, immamac said:

And how the fuck is this legal

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

I know. Hence why I mentioned a regulated stock market being perhaps an important national interest.

I do believe the entirety of the surly chamber of commerce just branded you a commie for suggesting regulation as a cure to people acting in bad faith. It's survival of the fittest, no participation trophies! They should have known better before buying!

15 hours ago, immamac said:

And how the fuck is this legal

Bribes and blatant corruption. See: shithole country

I think this goes into the advanced course for manipulating the kalshi market

• 
• Charlie Warzel @cwarzel.bsky.social

a society losing the plot in real time

• 9:11 PM · Feb 10, 2026

There was a fairly long thread in the CR focussed on largely the political markets on PredictIt. I made some good coin there, cause certain markets were just consistently mispriced. I stopped actively using PI when they were getting mixed messages from DC and they were not issuing a lot of new market. Looks like they have stepped back up, and a got a few hundred in that account, so I will start playing around again. I haven't fucked with PM or the others, but they cover a much broader range of markets, some of which are extremely easy to manipulate. Plus last time I looked PM only operated with crypto for deposits and withdrawals.

Oh

• 
• Joon Lee @joonlee

On Squawk Box, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour struggles to answer why a Bad Bunny dancer -- who watched rehearsals -- betting on the Halftime Show predictions markets would not be considered insider trading.

Sports was estimated to be 90% of betting on Kalshi during the NFL season.

• 4:58 PM · Feb 10, 2026

2 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

Oh

• 
• Joon Lee @joonlee

On Squawk Box, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour struggles to answer why a Bad Bunny dancer -- who watched rehearsals -- betting on the Halftime Show predictions markets would not be considered insider trading.

Sports was estimated to be 90% of betting on Kalshi during the NFL season.

• 4:58 PM · Feb 10, 2026

Thanks for posting, saw this clip earlier today. I recommend everyone watches it. This fucking little shitbag.

The corruption in this country right now is staggering. Trump takes up all the oxygen, while the AI and prediction market scammers fuck this country up the ass.

Edited February 11Feb 11 by Hank Kingsley

Polymarket and Kalshi brag about there being no protection against inside info. Who are the suckers putting money into this?

Unwed men in their mid-20's?

• 
• Charlie Warzel @cwarzel.bsky.social

a society losing the plot in real time

• 9:11 PM · Feb 10, 2026

13 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

Oh

• 
• Joon Lee @joonlee

On Squawk Box, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour struggles to answer why a Bad Bunny dancer -- who watched rehearsals -- betting on the Halftime Show predictions markets would not be considered insider trading.

Sports was estimated to be 90% of betting on Kalshi during the NFL season.

• 4:58 PM · Feb 10, 2026

If someone could just beat the 5 o’clock shadow off his face that’d be awesome.

11 hours ago, WBT said:

Polymarket and Kalshi brag about there being no protection against inside info. Who are the suckers putting money into this?

People like Giannis. That the NBA is not stepping in to stop him from investing in this scam would be infuriating to me if I still watched a lot of NBA games. Instead the corruption seems to be a feature and not a bug to me now.

10 hours ago, WBT said:

Polymarket and Kalshi brag about there being no protection against inside info. Who are the suckers putting money into this?

The same people sort of easily convinced useful idiots who think the 2020 election was stolen and that crypto is a stable store of value?

12 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

People like Giannis. That the NBA is not stepping in to stop him from investing in this scam would be infuriating to me if I still watched a lot of NBA games. Instead the corruption seems to be a feature and not a bug to me now.

Between the Giannis thing, the corrupt refs (hello gambling), the actual sports gambling by fans, endorsed by the league itself, the tanking, the resting players on B2Bs and fucking over fans who want to see the stars, the feckless ass commissioner -

Why do we still watch this fucking sport?

lol not like you can actually watch the nba with it being on like 7 different apps and not available locally.

There is some freak-show interest in following the idiocy of the more exotic prediction markets options, like Jesus’ return and derivatives. From a policy standpoint the line of attack is to treat them like an unregulated sportsbook (which it is). Strategic investors evaporate if they are reduced to oddity betting, and there are not the associated long-term societal cancers. There just will never be a significant market for this stuff, and if people want to pay Kalshi a fee to scam each other, whatever. That will fall off soon. Take away the sportsbook.

17 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

Oh

• 
• Joon Lee @joonlee

On Squawk Box, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour struggles to answer why a Bad Bunny dancer -- who watched rehearsals -- betting on the Halftime Show predictions markets would not be considered insider trading.

Sports was estimated to be 90% of betting on Kalshi during the NFL season.

• 4:58 PM · Feb 10, 2026

Hot take: Insider trading can be super useful, but it needs to be known it’s happening.

Let Congress insider trade all they want, with the caveat that their transactions are streamed online in real time. Go watch and see what position Pelosi is taking.

Nuclear punishment for not disclosing or acting via intermediary.

We're approaching the bottom of the barrel very quickly.

• 
• The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com

Israel has arrested several people for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Israeli military operations on Polymarket.

• 3:23 PM · Feb 12, 2026

Israeli Soldiers Accused of Using Polymarket to Bet on Strikes

The country’s internal security agency indicted a reservist and a civilian for security offenses, bribery and obstruction of justice in connection with the bets.

on.wsj.com

28 minutes ago, Chopper said:

We're approaching the bottom of the barrel very quickly.

• 
• The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com

Israel has arrested several people for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Israeli military operations on Polymarket.

• 3:23 PM · Feb 12, 2026

Israeli Soldiers Accused of Using Polymarket to Bet on Strikes

The country’s internal security agency indicted a reservist and a civilian for security offenses, bribery and obstruction of justice in connection with the bets.

on.wsj.com

All of these “prediction markets” should be sued out of business. Fucking cretins.

Wwant to bet on ESPN Classic games?

On 2/7/2026 at 12:05 PM, ztejas said:

From what I can gather the juice on them is even worse than sports gambling sites. Which is saying a lot.

On 2/7/2026 at 12:06 PM, immamac said:

A lot worse.

That's a horribly uninformed take. I use Kalshi all the time for sports betting specifically because you get better odds (primarly in-game, where sportsbook's screw you), and you can get out of your bet at any time by selling at whatever the price is. Here's a random example from some shit game tonight:

The splitscreen screenshot has my offshore sportsbook on the left, and Kalshi on the right.

For people that want to bet Georgia St to come back and win:

• Sportsbook is offering +186 ML (bet $100, win $186), Kalshi is offering 32 cents to win 68, which equates to +212 (bet $100 to win $212)

For people that want to bet James Madison holds on and wins:

• Sportsbook is offering -285 (bet $285 to win $100), Kalshi is offering 70 cents to win 30, which equates to -233 (bet 233 to win 100).

So in no matter which side you want to bet, the odds are better on Kalshi. Even if I just pay the "ask price" on Kalshi, my odds will almost always be better than the sportsbook.

Its also great for futures.

My offshore sportsbook is offering +650, Kalshi is offering 12 to win 88, which equates to +733. I can either bid at 11 cents (+809) and hope it fills, or pay the "ask" of 12 cents and with fees, it is

so worst case, im getting +684 odds, which is still better than 650.

Its like anything else, different sportsbooks will offer different odds and the odds on Kalshi and polymarket can be different as well. Shop for the best price.

Kalshi has a lot of interesting applications, as arbitrage opportunities are everywhere if you want to corrolate to things like returns on stocks, ETFs, or crypto or more likely their corresponding options market. Interactive Brokers has their own prediction's market completely independent from Kalshi, so i can find arbitrage opportunities there occasionally as well. Like a guaranteed 2% return in a day or two. I havent wasted a lot of time on exploiting those as their is still a lot of uncertainty over whether you can treat prediction markets for financial contracts(market indices, commodities, crypto) as financial instruments or gambling. Due to the Big Beautiful bill changes to how you treat gambling losses, if you treat those contracts as gambling, it wipes out the ability to arbitrage. If they are treated as CFTC contracts (and both Kalshi and IBKR's markets are regulated by the CFTC) then you can fully deduct losses against gains.

If I can better odds on Kalshi rather than with my sportsbook, I use Kalshi. Similarly, if there is resolution on the tax treatment of prediction markets on stocks/crypto/commodities, and I think I can get a better return using those markets than a traditional broker and stocks/options, I would use a predictions market. You shop prices when you get a mortgage or buy a car, why wouldn't you shop prices on sports bets or investments?

Edited February 13Feb 13 by Blotto

On 2/11/2026 at 8:24 AM, Js1 said:

Between the Giannis thing, the corrupt refs (hello gambling), the actual sports gambling by fans, endorsed by the league itself, the tanking, the resting players on B2Bs and fucking over fans who want to see the stars, the feckless ass commissioner -

Why do we still watch this fucking sport?

I haven't since Hakeem retired

10 hours ago, Chopper said:

We're approaching the bottom of the barrel very quickly.

• 
• The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com

Israel has arrested several people for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Israeli military operations on Polymarket.

• 3:23 PM · Feb 12, 2026

Israeli Soldiers Accused of Using Polymarket to Bet on Strikes

The country’s internal security agency indicted a reservist and a civilian for security offenses, bribery and obstruction of justice in connection with the bets.

on.wsj.com

*the US account that bet on Maduro being deposed

48 minutes ago, Blotto said:

That's a horribly uninformed take. I use Kalshi all the time for sports betting specifically because you get better odds (primarly in-game, where sportsbook's screw you), and you can get out of your bet at any time by selling at whatever the price is. Here's a random example from some shit game tonight:

The splitscreen screenshot has my offshore sportsbook on the left, and Kalshi on the right.

For people that want to bet Georgia St to come back and win:

• Sportsbook is offering +186 ML (bet $100, win $186), Kalshi is offering 32 cents to win 68, which equates to +212 (bet $100 to win $212)

For people that want to bet James Madison holds on and wins:

• Sportsbook is offering -285 (bet $285 to win $100), Kalshi is offering 70 cents to win 30, which equates to -233 (bet 233 to win 100).

So in no matter which side you want to bet, the odds are better on Kalshi. Even if I just pay the "ask price" on Kalshi, my odds will almost always be better than the sportsbook.

Its also great for futures.

My offshore sportsbook is offering +650, Kalshi is offering 12 to win 88, which equates to +733. I can either bid at 11 cents (+809) and hope it fills, or pay the "ask" of 12 cents and with fees, it is

so worst case, im getting +684 odds, which is still better than 650.

Its like anything else, different sportsbooks will offer different odds and the odds on Kalshi and polymarket can be different as well. Shop for the best price.

Kalshi has a lot of interesting applications, as arbitrage opportunities are everywhere if you want to corrolate to things like returns on stocks, ETFs, or crypto or more likely their corresponding options market. Interactive Brokers has their own prediction's market completely independent from Kalshi, so i can find arbitrage opportunities there occasionally as well. Like a guaranteed 2% return in a day or two. I havent wasted a lot of time on exploiting those as their is still a lot of uncertainty over whether you can treat prediction markets for financial contracts(market indices, commodities, crypto) as financial instruments or gambling. Due to the Big Beautiful bill changes to how you treat gambling losses, if you treat those contracts as gambling, it wipes out the ability to arbitrage. If they are treated as CFTC contracts (and both Kalshi and IBKR's markets are regulated by the CFTC) then you can fully deduct losses against gains.

If I can better odds on Kalshi rather than with my sportsbook, I use Kalshi. Similarly, if there is resolution on the tax treatment of prediction markets on stocks/crypto/commodities, and I think I can get a better return using those markets than a traditional broker and stocks/options, I would use a predictions market. You shop prices when you get a mortgage or buy a car, why wouldn't you shop prices on sports bets or investments?

Interesting. I'll play with it.

Thanks for the info.

And this convo sent me down a little bit of a rabbit hole online, where I stumbled across this recent article. While it speculates on actions that the CFTC and other regulatroy bodies may take, it seems likely there will be a lot of conversation this year.

U.S. CFTC Signals Imminent Rulemaking on Prediction Marke...

I get it, prediction markets can be annoying with their constant ads, and sports gambling (both legal and prediction markets) is likely ruining the watching experience, but I'll use em while they are around, cause I appreciate the flexibility they offer.

1 hour ago, Blotto said:

And this convo sent me down a little bit of a rabbit hole online, where I stumbled across this recent article. While it speculates on actions that the CFTC and other regulatroy bodies may take, it seems likely there will be a lot of conversation this year.

U.S. CFTC Signals Imminent Rulemaking on Prediction Marke...

I get it, prediction markets can be annoying with their constant ads, and sports gambling (both legal and prediction markets) is likely ruining the watching experience, but I'll use em while they are around, cause I appreciate the flexibility they offer.

I mean, they all paid Don Jr tens of millions of dollars in bri- I mean consulting fees to make sure they'd color inside the lines. So I'm sure they have nothing to worry about as long as they can up the subscription price to junior

10 hours ago, Blotto said:

That's a horribly uninformed take. I use Kalshi all the time for sports betting specifically because you get better odds (primarly in-game, where sportsbook's screw you), and you can get out of your bet at any time by selling at whatever the price is. Here's a random example from some shit game tonight:

The splitscreen screenshot has my offshore sportsbook on the left, and Kalshi on the right.

For people that want to bet Georgia St to come back and win:

• Sportsbook is offering +186 ML (bet $100, win $186), Kalshi is offering 32 cents to win 68, which equates to +212 (bet $100 to win $212)

For people that want to bet James Madison holds on and wins:

• Sportsbook is offering -285 (bet $285 to win $100), Kalshi is offering 70 cents to win 30, which equates to -233 (bet 233 to win 100).

So in no matter which side you want to bet, the odds are better on Kalshi. Even if I just pay the "ask price" on Kalshi, my odds will almost always be better than the sportsbook.

Its also great for futures.

My offshore sportsbook is offering +650, Kalshi is offering 12 to win 88, which equates to +733. I can either bid at 11 cents (+809) and hope it fills, or pay the "ask" of 12 cents and with fees, it is

so worst case, im getting +684 odds, which is still better than 650.

Its like anything else, different sportsbooks will offer different odds and the odds on Kalshi and polymarket can be different as well. Shop for the best price.

Kalshi has a lot of interesting applications, as arbitrage opportunities are everywhere if you want to corrolate to things like returns on stocks, ETFs, or crypto or more likely their corresponding options market. Interactive Brokers has their own prediction's market completely independent from Kalshi, so i can find arbitrage opportunities there occasionally as well. Like a guaranteed 2% return in a day or two. I havent wasted a lot of time on exploiting those as their is still a lot of uncertainty over whether you can treat prediction markets for financial contracts(market indices, commodities, crypto) as financial instruments or gambling. Due to the Big Beautiful bill changes to how you treat gambling losses, if you treat those contracts as gambling, it wipes out the ability to arbitrage. If they are treated as CFTC contracts (and both Kalshi and IBKR's markets are regulated by the CFTC) then you can fully deduct losses against gains.

If I can better odds on Kalshi rather than with my sportsbook, I use Kalshi. Similarly, if there is resolution on the tax treatment of prediction markets on stocks/crypto/commodities, and I think I can get a better return using those markets than a traditional broker and stocks/options, I would use a predictions market. You shop prices when you get a mortgage or buy a car, why wouldn't you shop prices on sports bets or investments?

This post is hilariously myopic and you clearly don't understand the fee model. There's a fee on both sides of every contract for kalshi.

On top of that the entire reason why prediction markets are fucking dumb and horrible because of the lack of regulation is literally the reason you use it. The whole point of it is that it enables behavior that is illegal while framing it as legal.

Sports betting in many states and online is illegal and kalshi is unregulated operating straight up as a sportsbook.

Many of the other opportunities you are talking about are also predatory, but for shits and giggles what are your returns on kalshi?