Perpetual Middle East Geopolitical Quagmire Megathread

[Aqua Buddha 14525]

We're all wondering if Trump has thought this through.  This is same guy who was bidding against himself to buy all of the casinos in Atlantic City and that's when he was in his 40's.

[atomheartbevo 89457]

14 minutes ago, Goredho said:

If it really comes to blows with Iran, it will be a proxy war — and they will be the proxy.  There are a lot of foreign powers that would support them in some fashion to bleed the US.

Azerbaijan is a Shiite country, and will have no problem allowing Russian weapons to flow through to Iran.   China will have no problem getting weapons to Iran.  Turkey as well.

Trump probably doesn't understand that he can sanction Iran all he wants, but if nobody else gives a shit, it's useless.

Edited January 6, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Nivek 16864]

Blow up a wedding instead?
Okay, that was a shitty joke.  Shitty jokes aside, I don't know how the Air Force handles it, and my experience was with the Army in the 90s as an enlisted soldier, but it was beaten into our heads not to fuck around with the UCMJ.  
You would understand it more than I, but the UCMJ was established by Congress.  I imagine that Trump ordering the Air Force to destroy cultural and civilian targets is going to get plenty of coverage in Congress, and Turtle can't stop that coverage, nor can he stop the images pouring out over social media.

You think senate republicans give a shit about that?

[atomheartbevo 89457]

Just now, Nivek said:

You think senate republicans give a shit about that?

I think they will give a shit about dead Iranian civilians and destroyed Iranian civilian targets when it's all over the nightly news, social media, etc. heading into the election season, and they have to defend it.  And don't think the Iranian government won't put a bunch of civilians, kids included, around "cultural targets".    And American troops will die.  This is not Iraq of 2003.  Iran has been wargaming this stuff since the 1980s when they first tangled with the Navy.

We are heading into prime election season.  This is not a 9/11 situation, nor is it a ginned-up WMD situation that people are buying off on in the short-term.  

It's gonna be awfully hard to defend that, particularly when this is 100% on Trump, and he's out there telling everybody on twitter that it's 100% his idea.

This is like walking into a room with shit on the walls, and Trump is standing there with shit in one hand, and a bullhorn in the other, screaming out "THIS IS ALL MY SHIT, I PUT ALL OF THIS SHIT ON THE WALLS, BEHOLD MY DIET COKE AND BIG MAC SHITS!"

Trump is owning this 100% and Fox News,  his sons, and various Republican leaders are out there making sure Trump gets 100% credit.

[Aqua Buddha 14525]

Senate Republicans are currently parroting Russian talking points.  They won't give a fuck about Iranian optics.  They'll do mental gymnastics around it.

Lindsey Graham and Kennedy from LA likely have kompromat against them.  They'll do whatever they're told.

[formermav43 4599]

I have to fight hard not to neg over using kompromat.

[F250 28700]

4 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

So.....

1.  Iraq voted to throw us out of the country.  

2.  The main reason we were there in the first place was to fight ISIS.

3.  The GOP insisted that ISIS and their 20K people in Toyota pickups were an existential threat to our country.

4.  Trump then cuts off the Kurds, which were our main allies against ISIS.

5.  Now, we're not in Iraq fighting ISIS anymore

It's like Trump didn't think this through.  Who would have thought?

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89457]

14 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Senate Republicans are currently parroting Russian talking points.  They won't give a fuck about Iranian optics.  They'll do mental gymnastics around it.

Lindsey Graham and Kennedy from LA likely have kompromat against them.  They'll do whatever they're told.

Trump lost the popular vote by millions.  States that went for him flipped in 2018.

It doesn't matter what Senate Republicans themselves think, it matters to them whether Trump will be an anchor around their necks, whether he will put their states into play.

Trump keeps on going out there and saying that this was 100% his doing, and that he will keep on doing what he wants.

Hell, he's out there saying Obama should have been the one to do this.

Edited January 6, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[InkaUtexas 25530]

23 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Of all the stupid shit on this thread, this is the stupidest. If only there were previous examples of the US deposing regimes and all the joyous citizens welcoming us as liberators. I sometimes forget that all the Bush neocon imbeciles are still around even though a new breed of Trump idiot has taken over Washington. Jesus fucking Christ. 

Sir, I was against Iraq. There is a reason I never went there to work. We don't know each other but if you want to have a beer in person and discuss let me know. 

And the Clerics will go down. 

[Nivek 16864]

I think they will give a shit about dead Iranian civilians and destroyed Iranian civilian targets when it's all over the nightly news, social media, etc. heading into the election season, and they have to defend it.  And don't think the Iranian government won't put a bunch of civilians, kids included, around "cultural targets".    And American troops will die.  This is not Iraq of 2003.  Iran has been wargaming this stuff since the 1980s when they first tangled with the Navy.
We are heading into prime election season.  This is not a 9/11 situation, nor is it a ginned-up WMD situation that people are buying off on in the short-term.  
It's gonna be awfully hard to defend that, particularly when this is 100% on Trump, and he's out there telling everybody on twitter that it's 100% his idea.
This is like walking into a room with shit on the walls, and Trump is standing there with shit in one hand, and a bullhorn in the other, screaming out "THIS IS ALL MY SHIT, I PUT ALL OF THIS SHIT ON THE WALLS, BEHOLD MY DIET COKE AND BIG MAC SHITS!"
Trump is owning this 100% and Fox News,  his sons, and various Republican leaders are out there making sure Trump gets 100% credit.

You don’t understand the right lives in an information bubble. We can’t seem to give a shit about shootings in this country, and you think a bunch of dead Persians or Persian antiquities will matter?

[tx 3 putt 76421]

4 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Southern Baptists get rock hard when you start talking about Revelation and Armageddon.  

They believe all the non whites will be purged during said revelation and Armageddon. 
 

#truth

[atomheartbevo 89457]

3 minutes ago, Nivek said:

You don’t understand the right lives in an information bubble. We can’t seem to give a shit about shootings in this country, and you think a bunch of dead Persians or Persian antiquities will matter?

You assume the Senate Republicans actually care what Trump's base thinks - they don't, as long as they turn out to vote.

What they care about are the folks towards the middle, in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona, Florida, Georgia, NC, etc. that could swing the White House back to the Dems, and that could put Senate seats into play.

And getting lost in the shuffle - putting local/state races into play, in a census year. when, not far down the road, more Democrats will have more power in redistricting.

There's a reason why so many Republicans are bailing on the House.

 

[elfenix 34184]

NSIAP:

 

 

Edited January 6, 2020 by elfenix
too fast for the board edit2: this goddamn thing thinks my carriage returns are hitting the post button

[staboner 4959]

10 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Sunni and Kurdish lawmakers boycotted the Iraqi Parliament vote. Iraq remains a fractured nation-state under the thumb of Iran, for this moment in history. It is always on the brink of a Sunni-Shia civil war with innocents all around. What a mess - for so many decades. 

I mean there is always the 10k foot view, the 1k foot view and the hundred foot view. In the ME I always just tend to the 10k foot view. Its fucked and there is no mechanism, other than civil war and murder, to fix it. And that just sucks. 

Thread title checks out

[Hornius Emeritus 12422]

10 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Sunni and Kurdish lawmakers boycotted the Iraqi Parliament vote. Iraq remains a fractured nation-state under the thumb of Iran, for this moment in history. It is always on the brink of a Sunni-Shia civil war with innocents all around. What a mess - for so many decades. 

 

Well, at a cost of trillions of borrowed dollars and hundreds of thousands of lives, we took out the one man who was capable of a) keeping the Iranians out of Iraq and b) keeping the Shiites and the Sunnis from killing one another in Iraq ----- all in the delusional belief that it would be a "cakewalk."  That's right. Kenneth Adelman actually said "cakewalk"  back in the day.

[WhatTheBuck 28717]

6 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

The main reason we were there in the first place was to fight ISIS.

The main reason we were there in the first place was to get George W. Bush re-elected. He wasn't about to make the same mistake his dad did. ISIS didn't even exist yet. Their generals were still serving Saddam at the time. 

[TexArcher 37531]

18 minutes ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

 

Well, at a cost of trillions of borrowed dollars and hundreds of thousands of lives, we took out the one man who was capable of a) keeping the Iranians out of Iraq and b) keeping the Shiites and the Sunnis from killing one another in Iraq ----- all in the delusional belief that it would be a "cakewalk."  That's right. Kenneth Adelman actually said "cakewalk"  back in the day.

Yeah, but Halliburton got to rebuild everything we flattened.  So it was worth it.

[WhatTheBuck 28717]

7 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Yeah, but Halliburton got to rebuild everything we flattened.  So it was worth it.

And I'm pretty sure that, watching Trump, Dick Cheney curses the day he sold off his Haliburton stock before becoming VP in order to avoid a conflict of interest. Although I'd bet that, if we examined his finances since 2009 closely, we'd find that he was amply rewarded for his service to his former company. 

[maninblack 7974]

55 minutes ago, elfenix said:

NSIAP:

 

 

I shouldn't laugh but holy shit. You couldn't write this shit if you tried.

[tx 3 putt 76421]

Crazy stuff. That’s like a 2hr ‘veep’ movie 

Edited January 6, 2020 by tx 3 putt

[Hook1997 5291]

14 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Let me guess. You voted for Gary Johnson. 

No I just don’t see any situation as black and white, I actually think about them from all sides....    I don’t like Trump but I’m business and economically towards republican, I don’t care really if a Democrat is the only option to beat him or not this election, beat him, as long as it’s not Warren or Sanders....  Cause if you think socialism is the answer for us or anyone at all just look at how that’s going around the world.   Greece, italy, ect. I’m more conservative to a logical point economy wise and liberal on everything else.  I’m not cookie cutter and blinded by sides like everyone these days so sue me idgf and I regret entering the political thread now lol.  A common sense party needs to start now cause these two are a shit show now and as extreme apart as they can get. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by Hook1997

[elfenix 34184]

Doesn't know what socialism is but gets angry about it.

[Brian Fantana 6668]

49 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

No I just don’t see any situation as black and white, I actually think about them from all sides....    I don’t like Trump but I’m business and economically towards republican, I don’t care really if a Democrat is the only option to beat him or not this election, beat him, as long as it’s not Warren or Sanders....  Cause if you think socialism is the answer for us or anyone at all just look at how that’s going around the world.   Greece, italy, ect. I’m more conservative to a logical point economy wise and liberal on everything else.  I’m not cookie cutter and blinded by sides like everyone these days so sue me idgf and I regret entering the political thread now lol.  A common sense party needs to start now cause these two are a shit show now and as extreme apart as they can get. 

You've seriously got to be kidding me. In literally any other country in the world, Sanders and Warren would be considered centrists. The Overton window has shifted so far to the right in this fucked up country that crazy notions like pumping more funding into health care and education instead of decades-long trillion dollar do nothing idiot wars are somehow socialist, leftist ideas. Give me a fucking break.

Edited January 6, 2020 by Brian Fantana

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13552]

1 hour ago, Hook1997 said:

No I just don’t see any situation as black and white, I actually think about them from all sides....    

My cologne? Danger

My schtik?

We've all heard it.

Dime a dance.

Like some stupid hypothetical ...Oz....where you could... buy...???

 

Like.

 

There's some fucking...market.....

[Hook1997 5291]

48 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

You've seriously got to be kidding me. In literally any other country in the world, Sanders and Warren would be considered centrists. The Overton window has shifted so far to the right in this fucked up country that crazy notions like pumping more funding into health care and education instead of decades-long trillion dollar do nothing idiot wars are somehow socialist, leftist ideas. Give me a fucking break.

Once again there is no perfect cenerio...   So your answer is to do like Greece or Italy or most of Europe now and give free everting to everyone?  How are those economies doing right now?  Jfc wakeup there is no perfect solution but to run a good economy the answer isn’t to pay for everyone no matter what blindly.  I agree it shouldn’t be far right but it shouldn’t be far left either.  Also economically it’s been moved so far right right now and fucked up the country So bad, pleas tell me how??  Stock at all time highs, unemployment is down, so how is it So Fucked up?  Lol.  Once again not a Trump guy but you are pulling to say on things I based my thoughts on to say it fucked up.   I’m only talking economy here not all his other bs.  You want Warren and no oil and gas production is the US and 50% and over taxes let’s see what that does to the econemy.... I’ll hang up and listen.  I don’t have to wait I’ve seen it in Europe and Greece ect.  If you think socialism is the cure for the US you are a special kind of moron or you call them centralist which isn’t even correct.

Edited January 6, 2020 by Hook1997

[Junior Miller 1502]

This is some fucked up shit. Iran is definitely going to retaliate because they have us right where they want us. The idiot US president just assassinated on of their top guys and publicly took responsibility for it so that just further alienates the now former US allies.

Britain doesn't want any part of this shit. In 2013 when Syria was going nuts in civil war and Obama wanted to take military action he backed off of it because our allies decided not to take part and we'd be going it alone. The British parliament met for hours and actually said the 2003 GWB regime lies they all believed poisoned the well and killed our credibility. This 3 years of trump shit has just fractured those relationships all the more so now we're militarily isolated. No one is going to pay any attention to our sanctions anymore. Iran can now sucker punch us repeatedly and try to get us into the trap of a solitary US war with them while Russia and China flood them with support. 

They're rope-a-doping us. Getting us to expend every resource just to keep up and weakening/isolating ourselves in the process. 

What's been the age cutoff for the draft in the past? There's zero chance I join in to fight this bullshit war if they institute that shit again. I've seen 20 years of Republican stupidity and warmongering and I'm not dying for it. 

[wildcat09 29267]

2 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

Once again there is no perfect cenerio...   So your answer is to do like Greece or Italy or most of Europe now and give free everting to everyone?  How are those economies doing right now?  Jfc wakeup there is no perfect solution but to run a good economy the answer isn’t to pay for everyone no matter what blindly.  I agree it shouldn’t be far right but it shouldn’t be far left either.  Also economically it’s been moved so far right right now and fucked up the country So bad, pleas tell me how??  Stock at all time highs, unemployment is down, so how is it So Fucked up?  Lol.  Once again not a Trump guy but you are pulling to say on things I based my thoughts on to say it fucked up.   I’m only talking economy here not all his other bs.  You want Warren and no oil and gas production is the US and 50% and over taxes let’s see what that does to the econemy.... I’ll hang up and listen.  I don’t have to wait I’ve seen it in Europe and Greece ect.  If you think socialism is the cure for the US you are a special kind of moron or you call them centralist which isn’t even correct.

You have brain damage.

[Homercles 10205]

4 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

You've seriously got to be kidding me. In literally any other country in the world, Sanders and Warren would be considered centrists. The Overton window has shifted so far to the right in this fucked up country that crazy notions like pumping more funding into health care and education instead of decades-long trillion dollar do nothing idiot wars are somehow socialist, leftist ideas. Give me a fucking break.

Well he dropped an idiocy clue immediately with the “I don’t care for Trump” bit...it’s usually a precursor to a rant hating on socialism, Pelosi, Democrats, liberalism, etc.  I see it here, Reddit, TheWarZone blog comments, anywhere really.  

[ConferenceRoom 6130]

4 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

cenerio

Edited 4 hours ago by Hook1997

 

[Francisco 2.0 32346]

 

[Anastasis 23398]

 

[Goredho 17352]

7 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

And I'm pretty sure that, watching Trump, Dick Cheney curses the day he sold off his Haliburton stock before becoming VP in order to avoid a conflict of interest. Although I'd bet that, if we examined his finances since 2009 closely, we'd find that he was amply rewarded for his service to his former company. 

Yeah, one thing I do try to keep in mind about Trump’s grift is that everyone who has been in an administration has profiteered.  Most are able to wait to capitalize or otherwise maintain some semblance of superficial propriety but Trump is either too unrefined to pull that off or just doesn’t give a shit.

It’s everything else that is Trump — the would-be despot, the Richard Spencer domestic policy, the normalization of hatred, the assault on American democracy, the alienation of western allies and alignment with totalitarians — that  makes me want him to Mr Creosote himself at one of these Wendy’s catered White House luncheons.

Now back to your regularly scheduled even bigger than the crusades BEST war...

[Goredho 17352]

16 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

[BradInATX 9208]

Cause if you think socialism is the answer for us or anyone at all just look at how that’s going around the world.  

I’m not cookie cutter and blinded by sides like everyone these days 

Lol

[Bookman 4611]

1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

Yes, we had an election in 2016 that decided this.

[Aqua Buddha 14525]

8 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

The main reason we were there in the first place was to get George W. Bush re-elected. He wasn't about to make the same mistake his dad did. ISIS didn't even exist yet. Their generals were still serving Saddam at the time. 

Obama sent troops back in 2014 to fight ISIS.  Remember, the GOP told us breathlessly that ISIS was the greatest threat to the US since the Axis Powers in WWII.

[Hornius Emeritus 12422]

[StruggleBus 3922]

10 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

They believe all the non whites will be purged during said revelation and Armageddon. 
 

#truth

I must have missed that lesson on Sunday school growing up

[maninblack 7974]

China is a strong and important partner of Iraq, and the agreement with China has become a public opinion issue in Iraq. Our people clearly recognize its importance and we will work to achieve it without hesitation. We hope that China will support us in all issues concerning Iraq internationally.

 

[Nivek 16864]

Make China Great Again

[WhatTheBuck 28717]

45 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Obama sent troops back in 2014 to fight ISIS.  Remember, the GOP told us breathlessly that ISIS was the greatest threat to the US since the Axis Powers in WWII.

I get it but we still had a presence in Iraq -- diplomatic, security, advisory -- that wasn't there before the Bush invasion. The military expertise of ISIS came from the ranks of Baathist officers in Saddam's army who were summarily fired by L. Paul Bremer, occupying governor of the country, after we took Baghdad. 

We fired the military and let them keep their arms. They wound up joining forces with the radical jihadists of ISIS because that was the best way to combat Shia retribution against the Sunnis for their long subjugation. Topple the brutally oppressive Sunni minority government and put the minority Shi'ites in power and things aren't going to go well for the Sunnis. It was as predictable as the sunrise, just like it was predictable that Shia Iraq would become a client state of Iran. 

It's all of a piece. 

[4th&Five 41461]

That’s a relief!

 

[Red Five 40678]

Aw shit, Iran's got nukes now. That's not good. 

[workswithseed 2037]

8 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

You've seriously got to be kidding me. In literally any other country in the world, Sanders and Warren would be considered centrists. The Overton window has shifted so far to the right in this fucked up country that crazy notions like pumping more funding into health care and education instead of decades-long trillion dollar do nothing idiot wars are somehow socialist, leftist ideas. Give me a fucking break.

Blah blah blah, we want to see our women sell themselves for sandwiches too, as well as being propped up by the other states.

Hell, it's not even working for us, see the South.

[Chad Fuck 17571]

6 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

Blah blah blah, we want to see our women sell themselves for sandwiches too, as well as being propped up by the other states.

Hell, it's not even working for us, see the South.

What can you get for a turkey & havarti?  Asking for a friend.

 

[WhatTheBuck 28717]

Shit, I meant majority Shi'ites above, of course. 

[Brisketexan 104669]

Some thoughts shared with me by a family member who worked with the Senate Foreign Relations committee for a long time (the thoughts are not his - rather, they come from a colleague who once had a higher security clearance than his).  They're long, I'll put them in a spoiler.  But some of the conclusions:

Quote

I do know that much of the talk justifying the President’s decision is nonsense:

• Let’s start with the important lesson I thought we had all learned by experience since 9/11. Killing the leader of a terrorist organization isn’t a giant step toward ending the threat of terrorism worldwide. Full stop. Some, while acknowledging that drone attacks have killed a number of important terrorists leaders, point to the serious collateral damage on civilians that follows in their wake. Plus, critics’ research suggests that such strikes have been especially helpful in terrorist recruitment efforts. True or not, my yardstick in such matters has always been that if the target isn’t important enough for us to put boots on the ground, risking American lives in the process, maybe we should think twice, even a third time before we pull the trigger.

• Then there is the charge that Soleimani is just a “terrorist.” What is all the fuss? True he killed many Americans and even a greater number of others living nearby and the far beyond. And yes, over the last two decades he has been planning, orchestrating, and may have on occasion participated in terrorists attacks. But he has always been more than just a mere terrorist. He also held a powerful military position in the nation state of Iran. That alone makes this event far different and extraordinary than just another drone attack. No! This is a watershed moment. We have taken a first of its kind leap into the future – world leaders are now fair game. Hunting season is open. I fear the world will never again look at the U.S. as we see ourselves – a role model for others to emulate; a nation that sets high standards and strives for even higher values. A nation, democratic and free, willing to strive for a more peaceful world not just for ourselves but for others as well. Sad to say, I think this one action has turned our white hat for many at least a shade of grey and given our adversaries the opportunity to spread the lie that it has not only turned grey, but coal black.

• I am also struggling with the notion that this instance of Americans being in imminent danger somehow justifies the use of assassination as our go to tool for solving a national security challenge. Our forces and diplomats have been in imminent danger every day since 9/11. Why don’t we just admit we had a shot at him. Planned and prepared the attack to take him out, and boom. He was gone, the Constitution and the Congress be damned. What’s the big deal administration supporters (or should I say enablers) ask? To my mind, in the end it is simply a clumsy excuse to justify their keeping others with a need to know out of the loop. Don’t be fooled. There was time to let the Gang of Eight know the President’s decision even if it was only moments after Soleimani stepped off the plane in Baghdad. In my experience planning and preparing for such a strike takes a lot more time than even most civilian government officials realize, let alone the American people. No, it was nothing less than a conscience decision to keep others in the dark about their intention to change a decades old policy. For the new gang in town, torture set too low a bar and expanding drone strikes was something even Obama had done. They were bound and determined to show that military power almost singlehandedly was the answer to the world’s problems even if it meant going to war with Iran. The new sheriff in town had assassination in his holster now and was not afraid to use it.

• Finally, what is the plan? Where do we go from here? Are we really prepared for a full-scale war with Iran? Again, call me crazy, but if there are people around who believe that this is a good idea, please check their rationale and costs estimates carefully. I can’t help but believe folks coming to such conclusions must be smoking a new kind of weed or something. It doesn’t matter what your political views war with Iran, it doesn’t add up. Once started the road to war starts to-pick up speed it becomes difficult to stop.

And the full text:

Spoiler

In any case, the assassination of General Soleimani has prompted me, like so many of you, to begin thinking through the consequences this act will have on U.S. national security interests. I certainly won’t shed a tear that he is no longer with us. He was a bad guy. My worry is what happens next; not just today or Monday after the Iranians have honored their hero’s passing. It is the costs over the next decade and beyond that certainly have my full attention; especially because the President’s actions have all the signs of a quick fix -- a shortcut for what clearly are longstanding and hugely complex problems. Sliding into a war with Iran will only make a bad situation worse. We should know better.

Our leaders, especially those from WWII onward had a vision for America -- to seek, together with likeminded nations, a more stable, prosperous, and peaceful world. Each successive President, to a greater or lesser extent, has moved us closer to that lofty goal.

• Those in the fifties found themselves in a Cold War with the Soviet Union, a former ally, and took on the burden of rebuilding Europe and Asia even if it meant our actions created stiffer political and economic competitors for us in the future. They had a vision.

• So, too did President Kennedy. His determination to put an American on the moon -- an effort accomplished after his death – made us the world’s leader in military and civilian high technology, an advantage seemingly slipping away in the 21st century because Republicans and Democrats alike won’t stop fighting each other long enough to look for solutions.

• President Johnson’s ill-advised and disastrous intervention in Vietnam came at an enormous cost and put the vision thing on hold for a decade. The Great Society – although even today still more hope than reality -- makes up in my mind a bit for the huge mistakes he made in Southeast Asia.

• Nixon for all his faults envisioned an opening to China and made arms control agreements with the Soviet Union that many feared and fought against. His successors, however, haven’t fully realized the promise of what he and Kissinger put in motion.

• President Carter rekindled the dream by recognizing China, but then badly mishandled its implementation, particularly his complete disregard for the safety and continued prosperity of the people on Taiwan – something that he grudgingly left up to the Congress. He gets an A for effort with his “Camp David” initiative, although me thinks that much of the credit belongs to Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat.

• Yet more recently who can forget President Reagan’s “tear down this wall” speech. Now that’s vision. He didn’t complete this lofty goal during his time in office of course, but he avoided a nuclear holocaust, and his successor ably finished what he had started peacefully.

• President Bush the elder did his part too. Most notably, he told Saddam Husain that his invasion of Kuwait “would not stand.” A line in the sand had been drawn, but he knew he could not and should not seek to solve the problem singlehandedly. Instead, he brought together U.S. allies from around the world, then unleashed the assembled military might on Saddam sending the resounding message that the free world would not tolerate him invading another country. Not to do so would have been pre-WWII thinking, that in his mind hadn’t worked, something he learned from first-hand experiences.

• I will let others discuss the pros and cons of President Clinton’s national security vision for America. I still can’t forgive my Ramble Elementary school classmate for his unwillingness to keep his zipper up during his term in office, which in the grand scheme of things doesn’t seem to me all that much to ask. Enough said.

• Where I think we took another wrong turn from the WWII generations grand vision was Bush II’s decision to go to war with Iraq -- the first preventive war in American history. Although I believe the President’s intentions heartfelt, especially in the aftermath and chaos of 9/11. Yet his rush to judgment was an error. It didn’t help that the Intelligence Community let him down. He only became aware of its poor performance when he received the judgement of the Iraq Commission on WMD that reported:

"We conclude that the Intelligence Community was dead wrong in almost all of its pre-war judgments about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. This was a major intelligence failure. Its principal causes were the Intelligence Community’s inability to collect good information about Iraq's WMD programs, serious errors in analyzing what information it could gather, and a failure to make clear just how much of its analysis was based on assumptions, rather than good evidence. On matters of this importance, we simply cannot afford failures of this magnitude."

• President Obama, love or hate him, took an important first step in easing Iran’s threat to stability in the Middle East, by putting a cap on its nuclear program, including the most strict and comprehensive verification regime put in place to date anywhere. He hoped he and his successors could find other opportunities for dealing with Iran’s missile program and its proxy forces later. On other security problems his vision was a bit blurry and for the most part accomplished little.

• Yet so far, President Trump’s effort at dealing with the challenges of international diplomacy make President Obama look like the statesman of the century. In just three years he has begun unravelling the international structure it took the U.S. and its allies 75 years to build. If you consider his start on the world stage as visionary, count me out.

• We only need to look at his current grand adventure to see how far off course he has taken us. At first blush, I can see ahead only more, not less, chaos. Should he continue on this path the changes for us could be dramatic, possibly even losing our position as the world’s greatest power. If such should occur, my bet would be on China.

Call me crazy but convincing me that one man’s death makes America in any sense greater or that it will bring peace to the Middle East isn’t going to be easy. Indeed, the jobs of our diplomats, soldiers, sailors, and members of the air force will certainly become more difficult and complicated than those the WWII generation handed me. I’m confident they are personally up to the task and will give their all. I am less certain of their leaders’ wisdom, whether they be Republicans or Democrats, to create a strategy that will make America and the world safer and more prosperous than we all were yesterday. They hardly talk to each other let alone work together to develop a workable vision for the future.

I don’t have a security clearance or inside knowledge of what provoked the President to make such a drastic departure from the presidential guidance presidents from Truman to the present concluded was best for protecting U.S. interests abroad --assassinating world leaders under their watch was a no-no. I’m sure many may have thought about it, and in the early days of the Cold War some even okayed attempting silly things like slipping Fidel a shot of shellfish toxin. But, at least in the old days we considered such things as covert actions, ones that the President could credibly deny we were not the culprit. Today we are openly celebrating a great victory over terrorism. Some dismissing out of hand the concerns of others that it was an act of war committed without Congressional approval or even a heads up to the Gang of Eight. No wonder you hardly hear anyone even mention that in the eyes of most of the world what we have done is against international law. I frankly don’t have a clue what to expect next.

I do know that much of the talk justifying the President’s decision is nonsense:

• Let’s start with the important lesson I thought we had all learned by experience since 9/11. Killing the leader of a terrorist organization isn’t a giant step toward ending the threat of terrorism worldwide. Full stop. Some, while acknowledging that drone attacks have killed a number of important terrorists leaders, point to the serious collateral damage on civilians that follows in their wake. Plus, critics’ research suggests that such strikes have been especially helpful in terrorist recruitment efforts. True or not, my yardstick in such matters has always been that if the target isn’t important enough for us to put boots on the ground, risking American lives in the process, maybe we should think twice, even a third time before we pull the trigger.

• Then there is the charge that Soleimani is just a “terrorist.” What is all the fuss? True he killed many Americans and even a greater number of others living nearby and the far beyond. And yes, over the last two decades he has been planning, orchestrating, and may have on occasion participated in terrorists attacks. But he has always been more than just a mere terrorist. He also held a powerful military position in the nation state of Iran. That alone makes this event far different and extraordinary than just another drone attack. No! This is a watershed moment. We have taken a first of its kind leap into the future – world leaders are now fair game. Hunting season is open. I fear the world will never again look at the U.S. as we see ourselves – a role model for others to emulate; a nation that sets high standards and strives for even higher values. A nation, democratic and free, willing to strive for a more peaceful world not just for ourselves but for others as well. Sad to say, I think this one action has turned our white hat for many at least a shade of grey and given our adversaries the opportunity to spread the lie that it has not only turned grey, but coal black.

• I am also struggling with the notion that this instance of Americans being in imminent danger somehow justifies the use of assassination as our go to tool for solving a national security challenge. Our forces and diplomats have been in imminent danger every day since 9/11. Why don’t we just admit we had a shot at him. Planned and prepared the attack to take him out, and boom. He was gone, the Constitution and the Congress be damned. What’s the big deal administration supporters (or should I say enablers) ask? To my mind, in the end it is simply a clumsy excuse to justify their keeping others with a need to know out of the loop. Don’t be fooled. There was time to let the Gang of Eight know the President’s decision even if it was only moments after Soleimani stepped off the plane in Baghdad. In my experience planning and preparing for such a strike takes a lot more time than even most civilian government officials realize, let alone the American people. No, it was nothing less than a conscience decision to keep others in the dark about their intention to change a decades old policy. For the new gang in town, torture set too low a bar and expanding drone strikes was something even Obama had done. They were bound and determined to show that military power almost singlehandedly was the answer to the world’s problems even if it meant going to war with Iran. The new sheriff in town had assassination in his holster now and was not afraid to use it.

• Finally, what is the plan? Where do we go from here? Are we really prepared for a full-scale war with Iran? Again, call me crazy, but if there are people around who believe that this is a good idea, please check their rationale and costs estimates carefully. I can’t help but believe folks coming to such conclusions must be smoking a new kind of weed or something. It doesn’t matter what your political views war with Iran, it doesn’t add up. Once started the road to war starts to-pick up speed it becomes difficult to stop.

No ifs, ands, or buts, the President’s actions thus far are a big deal. He needs, no is required, to layout for the Congress and the American people what he is he getting us into sooner rather than later. If he is being advised that this is the way to win the war on terrorism, God help us. Win? I find it wacky even talking about it in the case of terrorism. Remember, it was the conventional forces, you know the ones we turned our back on recently in Syria, that destroyed the Caliphate. Taking on Iran is a whole different matter. Think about what blood and treasure we expended fighting a war in Iraq and multiple your answer at least by three.

I whole heartedly agree that Special Ops have worked miracles over the last decade. I am in awe of their bravery and accomplishments, but I doubt those who risked their life for you and me all these years think that just their operations alone, no matter how successful, are the answer to finally ending the war on terror or certainly fighting a war with Iran. Most everybody, except the guy who holds our future in his hands, gets it. War is not something you decide on gut feeling. The time has come, as we say in Arkansas, to shit or get off the pot. I’m hoping his supporters will put their big boy pants on soon before he does even more damage.

For the rest us, let’s get busy making America proud again.

Just saying.

Sigh.  When I was younger, I thought that "trickle down" economics made sense, as a hypothesis.  But I've seen it in action....and the results speak for themselves.  When I was younger, I was pretty hawkish.  But I've seen what over-reliance on force as a tool does -- or more aptly, doesn't do.  I've learned.  I've changed my views.  Why in the hell can't our leadership (setting Trump aside -- the man doesn't even read, much less learn)?

[gmr548 16519]

If you think picking a fight with Iran is a good idea, or anything less than a colossal mistake, then you're dumber than a rock.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[Goredho 17352]

34 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Some thoughts shared with me by a family member who worked with the Senate Foreign Relations committee for a long time (the thoughts are not his - rather, they come from a colleague who once had a higher security clearance than his).  They're long, I'll put them in a spoiler.  But some of the conclusions:

And the full text:

  Hide contents

In any case, the assassination of General Soleimani has prompted me, like so many of you, to begin thinking through the consequences this act will have on U.S. national security interests. I certainly won’t shed a tear that he is no longer with us. He was a bad guy. My worry is what happens next; not just today or Monday after the Iranians have honored their hero’s passing. It is the costs over the next decade and beyond that certainly have my full attention; especially because the President’s actions have all the signs of a quick fix -- a shortcut for what clearly are longstanding and hugely complex problems. Sliding into a war with Iran will only make a bad situation worse. We should know better.

Our leaders, especially those from WWII onward had a vision for America -- to seek, together with likeminded nations, a more stable, prosperous, and peaceful world. Each successive President, to a greater or lesser extent, has moved us closer to that lofty goal.

• Those in the fifties found themselves in a Cold War with the Soviet Union, a former ally, and took on the burden of rebuilding Europe and Asia even if it meant our actions created stiffer political and economic competitors for us in the future. They had a vision.

• So, too did President Kennedy. His determination to put an American on the moon -- an effort accomplished after his death – made us the world’s leader in military and civilian high technology, an advantage seemingly slipping away in the 21st century because Republicans and Democrats alike won’t stop fighting each other long enough to look for solutions.

• President Johnson’s ill-advised and disastrous intervention in Vietnam came at an enormous cost and put the vision thing on hold for a decade. The Great Society – although even today still more hope than reality -- makes up in my mind a bit for the huge mistakes he made in Southeast Asia.

• Nixon for all his faults envisioned an opening to China and made arms control agreements with the Soviet Union that many feared and fought against. His successors, however, haven’t fully realized the promise of what he and Kissinger put in motion.

• President Carter rekindled the dream by recognizing China, but then badly mishandled its implementation, particularly his complete disregard for the safety and continued prosperity of the people on Taiwan – something that he grudgingly left up to the Congress. He gets an A for effort with his “Camp David” initiative, although me thinks that much of the credit belongs to Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat.

• Yet more recently who can forget President Reagan’s “tear down this wall” speech. Now that’s vision. He didn’t complete this lofty goal during his time in office of course, but he avoided a nuclear holocaust, and his successor ably finished what he had started peacefully.

• President Bush the elder did his part too. Most notably, he told Saddam Husain that his invasion of Kuwait “would not stand.” A line in the sand had been drawn, but he knew he could not and should not seek to solve the problem singlehandedly. Instead, he brought together U.S. allies from around the world, then unleashed the assembled military might on Saddam sending the resounding message that the free world would not tolerate him invading another country. Not to do so would have been pre-WWII thinking, that in his mind hadn’t worked, something he learned from first-hand experiences.

• I will let others discuss the pros and cons of President Clinton’s national security vision for America. I still can’t forgive my Ramble Elementary school classmate for his unwillingness to keep his zipper up during his term in office, which in the grand scheme of things doesn’t seem to me all that much to ask. Enough said.

• Where I think we took another wrong turn from the WWII generations grand vision was Bush II’s decision to go to war with Iraq -- the first preventive war in American history. Although I believe the President’s intentions heartfelt, especially in the aftermath and chaos of 9/11. Yet his rush to judgment was an error. It didn’t help that the Intelligence Community let him down. He only became aware of its poor performance when he received the judgement of the Iraq Commission on WMD that reported:

"We conclude that the Intelligence Community was dead wrong in almost all of its pre-war judgments about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. This was a major intelligence failure. Its principal causes were the Intelligence Community’s inability to collect good information about Iraq's WMD programs, serious errors in analyzing what information it could gather, and a failure to make clear just how much of its analysis was based on assumptions, rather than good evidence. On matters of this importance, we simply cannot afford failures of this magnitude."

• President Obama, love or hate him, took an important first step in easing Iran’s threat to stability in the Middle East, by putting a cap on its nuclear program, including the most strict and comprehensive verification regime put in place to date anywhere. He hoped he and his successors could find other opportunities for dealing with Iran’s missile program and its proxy forces later. On other security problems his vision was a bit blurry and for the most part accomplished little.

• Yet so far, President Trump’s effort at dealing with the challenges of international diplomacy make President Obama look like the statesman of the century. In just three years he has begun unravelling the international structure it took the U.S. and its allies 75 years to build. If you consider his start on the world stage as visionary, count me out.

• We only need to look at his current grand adventure to see how far off course he has taken us. At first blush, I can see ahead only more, not less, chaos. Should he continue on this path the changes for us could be dramatic, possibly even losing our position as the world’s greatest power. If such should occur, my bet would be on China.

Call me crazy but convincing me that one man’s death makes America in any sense greater or that it will bring peace to the Middle East isn’t going to be easy. Indeed, the jobs of our diplomats, soldiers, sailors, and members of the air force will certainly become more difficult and complicated than those the WWII generation handed me. I’m confident they are personally up to the task and will give their all. I am less certain of their leaders’ wisdom, whether they be Republicans or Democrats, to create a strategy that will make America and the world safer and more prosperous than we all were yesterday. They hardly talk to each other let alone work together to develop a workable vision for the future.

I don’t have a security clearance or inside knowledge of what provoked the President to make such a drastic departure from the presidential guidance presidents from Truman to the present concluded was best for protecting U.S. interests abroad --assassinating world leaders under their watch was a no-no. I’m sure many may have thought about it, and in the early days of the Cold War some even okayed attempting silly things like slipping Fidel a shot of shellfish toxin. But, at least in the old days we considered such things as covert actions, ones that the President could credibly deny we were not the culprit. Today we are openly celebrating a great victory over terrorism. Some dismissing out of hand the concerns of others that it was an act of war committed without Congressional approval or even a heads up to the Gang of Eight. No wonder you hardly hear anyone even mention that in the eyes of most of the world what we have done is against international law. I frankly don’t have a clue what to expect next.

I do know that much of the talk justifying the President’s decision is nonsense:

• Let’s start with the important lesson I thought we had all learned by experience since 9/11. Killing the leader of a terrorist organization isn’t a giant step toward ending the threat of terrorism worldwide. Full stop. Some, while acknowledging that drone attacks have killed a number of important terrorists leaders, point to the serious collateral damage on civilians that follows in their wake. Plus, critics’ research suggests that such strikes have been especially helpful in terrorist recruitment efforts. True or not, my yardstick in such matters has always been that if the target isn’t important enough for us to put boots on the ground, risking American lives in the process, maybe we should think twice, even a third time before we pull the trigger.

• Then there is the charge that Soleimani is just a “terrorist.” What is all the fuss? True he killed many Americans and even a greater number of others living nearby and the far beyond. And yes, over the last two decades he has been planning, orchestrating, and may have on occasion participated in terrorists attacks. But he has always been more than just a mere terrorist. He also held a powerful military position in the nation state of Iran. That alone makes this event far different and extraordinary than just another drone attack. No! This is a watershed moment. We have taken a first of its kind leap into the future – world leaders are now fair game. Hunting season is open. I fear the world will never again look at the U.S. as we see ourselves – a role model for others to emulate; a nation that sets high standards and strives for even higher values. A nation, democratic and free, willing to strive for a more peaceful world not just for ourselves but for others as well. Sad to say, I think this one action has turned our white hat for many at least a shade of grey and given our adversaries the opportunity to spread the lie that it has not only turned grey, but coal black.

• I am also struggling with the notion that this instance of Americans being in imminent danger somehow justifies the use of assassination as our go to tool for solving a national security challenge. Our forces and diplomats have been in imminent danger every day since 9/11. Why don’t we just admit we had a shot at him. Planned and prepared the attack to take him out, and boom. He was gone, the Constitution and the Congress be damned. What’s the big deal administration supporters (or should I say enablers) ask? To my mind, in the end it is simply a clumsy excuse to justify their keeping others with a need to know out of the loop. Don’t be fooled. There was time to let the Gang of Eight know the President’s decision even if it was only moments after Soleimani stepped off the plane in Baghdad. In my experience planning and preparing for such a strike takes a lot more time than even most civilian government officials realize, let alone the American people. No, it was nothing less than a conscience decision to keep others in the dark about their intention to change a decades old policy. For the new gang in town, torture set too low a bar and expanding drone strikes was something even Obama had done. They were bound and determined to show that military power almost singlehandedly was the answer to the world’s problems even if it meant going to war with Iran. The new sheriff in town had assassination in his holster now and was not afraid to use it.

• Finally, what is the plan? Where do we go from here? Are we really prepared for a full-scale war with Iran? Again, call me crazy, but if there are people around who believe that this is a good idea, please check their rationale and costs estimates carefully. I can’t help but believe folks coming to such conclusions must be smoking a new kind of weed or something. It doesn’t matter what your political views war with Iran, it doesn’t add up. Once started the road to war starts to-pick up speed it becomes difficult to stop.

No ifs, ands, or buts, the President’s actions thus far are a big deal. He needs, no is required, to layout for the Congress and the American people what he is he getting us into sooner rather than later. If he is being advised that this is the way to win the war on terrorism, God help us. Win? I find it wacky even talking about it in the case of terrorism. Remember, it was the conventional forces, you know the ones we turned our back on recently in Syria, that destroyed the Caliphate. Taking on Iran is a whole different matter. Think about what blood and treasure we expended fighting a war in Iraq and multiple your answer at least by three.

I whole heartedly agree that Special Ops have worked miracles over the last decade. I am in awe of their bravery and accomplishments, but I doubt those who risked their life for you and me all these years think that just their operations alone, no matter how successful, are the answer to finally ending the war on terror or certainly fighting a war with Iran. Most everybody, except the guy who holds our future in his hands, gets it. War is not something you decide on gut feeling. The time has come, as we say in Arkansas, to shit or get off the pot. I’m hoping his supporters will put their big boy pants on soon before he does even more damage.

For the rest us, let’s get busy making America proud again.

Just saying.

Sigh.  When I was younger, I thought that "trickle down" economics made sense, as a hypothesis.  But I've seen it in action....and the results speak for themselves.  When I was younger, I was pretty hawkish.  But I've seen what over-reliance on force as a tool does -- or more aptly, doesn't do.  I've learned.  I've changed my views.  Why in the hell can't our leadership (setting Trump aside -- the man doesn't even read, much less learn)?

Because the party controlling the levers of power right now:

1. Has a constituency that is largely made up of the marginally intelligent, willfully ignorant and uninformed

2. Has a goal other than peace and prosperity for all

[atomheartbevo 89457]

16 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Because the party controlling the levers of power right now:

1. Has a constituency that is largely made up of the marginally intelligent, willfully ignorant and uninformed

2. Has a goal other than peace and prosperity for all

And they think that if we hit Iran any more, that Iran should bow and submit, rather than fight back.  

Turtle should remember - in 2008, Obama got 365 EVs and McCain 178, in large part because of Iraq.   Have an unpopular President who didn’t even win the popular vote, get us in an even more disastrous more without even an excuse of WMDs and see how that goes.