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Perpetual Middle East Geopolitical Quagmire Megathread

Hugo Stiglitz

By Hugo Stiglitz
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ousuxndallas
ousuxndallas

Trump is the antithesis of that pussy Obama. The reasons why you guys hate Trump are the reasons we love him. He told Iran not to start shit, and when they did, he laid the wood. #MAGA

Brian Fantana
Brian Fantana

You've seriously got to be kidding me. In literally any other country in the world, Sanders and Warren would be considered centrists. The Overton window has shifted so far to the right in this fucked

Red Five
Red Five

You love him because he's a career criminal and conman and has no idea what he's doing and is historically corrupt and is incapable of telling the truth and is a truly terrible human being? That's wei

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bolverk

bolverk 30231

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Posted

This all just so sad and fucked up. It doesn’t have to be inevitable, but neither our current government nor theirs appear willing to be a voice of calm and reason.

Conflict is a failure in diplomacy which, by the way, does not mean the same as appeasement. It means understanding motives and history and figuring out a way to coexist.

From their perspective, I’m sure the Iranians believe that we - the West and the US/UK started all this around the time of WW2 when the Brits took their oil fields and we later deposed their duly elected president to only install the autocratic Shah.

Over time, that fomented populist anger that expressed itself through a religious extremism that resulted in a revolution and the embassy hostages. And ever since “both sides” have gone back and forth with each ratcheting up anger and hate.

Things calmed during the 1990s when our attention turned toward Iraq and they actually made some internal moderating reforms, even helping us in Afghanistan after 9/11. But then came the axis of evil speech and they saw themselves surrounded on the East and west by hostile American forces.

For them, it’s now a matter of survival for the regime and national pride by the people. Of course, they’re going to want to defend themselves and strengthen their position so they sought out the ultimate weapon and tried to build a network of allied proxies to promote their interests.

We applied sanctions and finally got a deal to stop the nuclear part, but with a change in administration the US snaps it’s fingers and immediately reneged on it, deciding instead to apply “maximum pressure” to bend them to our will.

We’ve backed them into a corner. Either they acquiesce to bend they knee, or they fight back. From the little I know of their history, the Persian people and their more than a millennia of civilization has shown very few instances of surrendering.

Without a doubt, their government has a lot of bad ideas and some evil fuckers in it like Suleimani was and have done some fucked up shit, but they’ve mostly behaved as predictable and rational actors who know their limits. With their backs against the wall like this, they may just say “fuck it” and start lashing out in all directions.

It wouldn’t have been easy, but this all could’ve been avoided.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, burntorangebongos said:

This can't be good. Everyone is going to book from the region.

Great, so my go-to lunch spot in Tehran-Sven & Jan’s Fesenjans is closing down?   

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26800

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, bolverk said:

This all just so sad and fucked up. It doesn’t have to be inevitable, but neither our current government nor theirs appear willing to be a voice of calm and reason.

Conflict is a failure in diplomacy which, by the way, does not mean the same as appeasement. It means understanding motives and history and figuring out a way to coexist.

From their perspective, I’m sure the Iranians believe that we - the West and the US/UK started all this around the time of WW2 when the Brits took their oil fields and we later deposed their duly elected president to only install the autocratic Shah.

Over time, that fomented populist anger that expressed itself through a religious extremism that resulted in a revolution and the embassy hostages. And ever since “both sides” have gone back and forth with each ratcheting up anger and hate.

Things calmed during the 1990s when our attention turned toward Iraq and they actually made some internal moderating reforms, even helping us in Afghanistan after 9/11. But then came the axis of evil speech and they saw themselves surrounded on the East and west by hostile American forces.

For them, it’s now a matter of survival for the regime and national pride by the people. Of course, they’re going to want to defend themselves and strengthen their position so they sought out the ultimate weapon and tried to build a network of allied proxies to promote their interests.

We applied sanctions and finally got a deal to stop the nuclear part, but with a change in administration the US snaps it’s fingers and immediately reneged on it, deciding instead to apply “maximum pressure” to bend them to our will.

We’ve backed them into a corner. Either they acquiesce to bend they knee, or they fight back. From the little I know of their history, the Persian people and their more than a millennia of civilization has shown very few instances of surrendering.

Without a doubt, their government has a lot of bad ideas and some evil fuckers in it like Suleimani was and have done some fucked up shit, but they’ve mostly behaved as predictable and rational actors who know their limits. With their backs against the wall like this, they may just say “fuck it” and start lashing out in all directions.

It wouldn’t have been easy, but this all could’ve been avoided.

Iran has never been in a corner Sir, not since the revolution. They are the Aggies of the Middle East. The Clerics were active before they took power. Being the Shia state they always were on the offensive, it is just that most Americans were not paying attention. My family has been fighting them since the revolution. My father worked ops for desert 1. My cousin was sitting on boats guarding tankers in the 80's. In Peru (1992) they tried to take out my mother. In Bosnia it was the first time they shot at me. I was working development right after the Dayton Accords. In Afghanistan they hit my development team, ironically killing 2 Shia. Brit MOD ran the tests to confirm it was Iranian explosives in the IED. My teams crime? They worked for an international company. So spare me your excuses. This is a bad dude, they are a bad government. I am not saying we are better, but alas, that is the way the world is. 

I am having dinner tonight with my old Afghan Interpreter. He knows this will lead to more bloodshed in his homeland, yet he is happy we are finally truly fighting Iran. As he told me last night, Al Qods is the silent killer in the Islamic world. And he is a Hazara Shia who lived in Iran. 

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bolverk

bolverk 30231

Posted
Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Iran has never been in a corner Sir, not since the revolution. They are the Aggies of the Middle East. The Clerics were active before they took power. Being the Shia state they always were on the offensive, it is just that most Americans were not paying attention. My family has been fighting them since the revolution. My father worked ops for desert 1. My cousin was sitting on boats guarding tankers in the 80's. In Peru (1992) they tried to take out my mother. In Bosnia it was the first time they shot at me. I was working development right after the Dayton Accords. In Afghanistan they hit my development team, ironically killing 2 Shia. Brit MOD ran the tests to confirm it was Iranian explosives in the IED. My teams crime? They worked for an international company. So spare me your excuses. This is a bad dude, they are a bad government. I am not saying we are better, but alas, that is the way the world is. 

I am having dinner tonight with my old Afghan Interpreter. He knows this will lead to more bloodshed in his homeland, yet he is happy we are finally truly fighting Iran. As he told me last night, Al Qods is the silent killer in the Islamic world. And he is a Hazara Shia who lived in Iran. 

Look, I’m not going to pretend I know more than you about Iran and I clearly said they’ve done some fucked up shit, but I do know human nature. This isn’t just about Al Quds anymore - this is about survival. I don’t think they’ll back down and this will get worse, but I hope I’m wrong.

Nothing would please me more than for the people to rise up and overthrow the  regime, but I have a feeling this sort of action will have a rally round the flag effect among their masses. I mean, they did send human waves of unarmed boys to their deaths against Iraq.

2nd edit: I hear you and know this is personal to you. I’m also sorry your family has been in their crosshairs and don’t mean to offend. I’m not naive about the regime, but I don’t want this situation to get a lot more personal to a lot more people.

Edited by bolverk
And Trump’s bullshit isn’t helping anything at all.
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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15526

Posted
Posted

There is no doubt Iran has been doing bad things for a long time. However, like everything Trump does, he addressed a real problem with a catastrophically stupid approach, with no support from allies or steering of public sentiment towards supporting the actions. Does this sound familiar? It should because it’s the same eff ups he’s done on China trade, North Korea, Syria, and everything else he’s touched. Same story second verse. The problem this time is that a lot of people are going to die, and our economy could crash as well, taking the world economy with it.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Kim Jong Un killed an American and you fell in love with him.

Don't be ridiculous.  It was purely sexual.  

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Iran has never been in a corner Sir, not since the revolution. They are the Aggies of the Middle East. The Clerics were active before they took power. Being the Shia state they always were on the offensive, it is just that most Americans were not paying attention. My family has been fighting them since the revolution. My father worked ops for desert 1. My cousin was sitting on boats guarding tankers in the 80's. In Peru (1992) they tried to take out my mother. In Bosnia it was the first time they shot at me. I was working development right after the Dayton Accords. In Afghanistan they hit my development team, ironically killing 2 Shia. Brit MOD ran the tests to confirm it was Iranian explosives in the IED. My teams crime? They worked for an international company. So spare me your excuses. This is a bad dude, they are a bad government. I am not saying we are better, but alas, that is the way the world is. 

I am having dinner tonight with my old Afghan Interpreter. He knows this will lead to more bloodshed in his homeland, yet he is happy we are finally truly fighting Iran. As he told me last night, Al Qods is the silent killer in the Islamic world. And he is a Hazara Shia who lived in Iran. 

Thanks for posting. It’s interesting to hear from people with an actual direct and deep understanding of who we’re dealing with. 
 

Given your personal connections to people and events in the region, I’m curious as to your thoughts on the nuclear deal that Trump revoked.  Was it a good deal for US? Was it real progress? Was it being followed? 
 

On this forum it is a pretty much partisan issue, like most. 
 

Thanks 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26800

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Posted
1 hour ago, bolverk said:

Look, I’m not going to pretend I know more than you about Iran and I clearly said they’ve done some fucked up shit, but I do know human nature. This isn’t just about Al Quds anymore - this is about survival. I don’t think they’ll back down and this will get worse, but I hope I’m wrong.

Nothing would please me more than for the people to rise up and overthrow the  regime, but I have a feeling this sort of action will have a rally round the flag effect among their masses. I mean, they did send human waves of unarmed boys to their deaths against Iraq.

2nd edit: I hear you and know this is personal to you. I’m also sorry your family has been in their crosshairs and don’t mean to offend. I’m not naive about the regime, but I don’t want this situation to get a lot more personal to a lot more people.

It won't get worse. It will be the same as it has been for 40 years. But I appreciate your response. If I was living in Dubai right now I would be thinking about my kids school, where I went to drink, etc. Diplomats in Uruguay need to watch their backs. 

But Until we start mobilizing the 3rd ID and 1Cav I think everyone needs to chill out and see what happens. Already told all our people in Africa to watch their asses and to anticipate getting hit. The world is a mean place. 

 

But again, thank you for being sane and responding in a good way. I appreciate your posts in this fucked up forum. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26800

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Thanks for posting. It’s interesting to hear from people with an actual direct and deep understanding of who we’re dealing with. 
 

Given your personal connections to people and events in the region, I’m curious as to your thoughts on the nuclear deal that Trump revoked.  Was it a good deal for US? Was it real progress? Was it being followed? 
 

On this forum it is a pretty much partisan issue, like most. 
 

Thanks 

Sir, I think it is a bad deal. They never were going to agree. Iran knows Saudi is going to (or has via South Africa) developed Nukes. The big joke when I was in the Middle East was the Paki nukes were paid for  by the Saudis and they decided what islamic slogans were on them. We gave Iran a cash lifeline at a time they could barely export AK's. Look at how quickly they powered up. It was that cash infusion. Iran was never going to give up their nuke program. Never. 

But then I am just a UT fan on a message board.  

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26800

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bolverk said:

Look, I’m not going to pretend I know more than you about Iran and I clearly said they’ve done some fucked up shit, but I do know human nature. This isn’t just about Al Quds anymore - this is about survival. I don’t think they’ll back down and this will get worse, but I hope I’m wrong.

Nothing would please me more than for the people to rise up and overthrow the  regime, but I have a feeling this sort of action will have a rally round the flag effect among their masses. I mean, they did send human waves of unarmed boys to their deaths against Iraq.

2nd edit: I hear you and know this is personal to you. I’m also sorry your family has been in their crosshairs and don’t mean to offend. I’m not naive about the regime, but I don’t want this situation to get a lot more personal to a lot more people.

I also think we confuse the Regime with the People. I am watching what they are saying and not the regime. Let them raise their Red Flag. I think the Iranian people, if we keep putting pressure on the regime, will drop it. 

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Sir, I think it is a bad deal. They never were going to agree. Iran knows Saudi is going to (or has via South Africa) developed Nukes. The big joke when I was in the Middle East was the Paki nukes were paid for  by the Saudis and they decided what islamic slogans were on them. We gave Iran a cash lifeline at a time they could barely export AK's. Look at how quickly they powered up. It was that cash infusion. Iran was never going to give up their nuke program. Never. 

But then I am just a UT fan on a message board.  

You’re just one person, but thanks for your input. 
 

I asked because the starting point in this forum is that voiding the nuclear deal is what started the recent escalations and that it was unnecessary. It was a great deal, the best etc. 

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maninblack

maninblack 7975

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I also think we confuse the Regime with the People. I am watching what they are saying and not the regime. Let them raise their Red Flag. I think the Iranian people, if we keep putting pressure on the regime, will drop it. 

Our regime is different than the people as well. We don't want this. The military industrial complex does.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26800

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Posted
1 minute ago, GRHorn said:

You’re just one person, but thanks for your input. 
 

I asked because the starting point in this forum is that voiding the nuclear deal is what started the recent escalations and that it was unnecessary. It was a great deal, the best etc. 

No Sir, there was no step back. I am not a Trump fan, but I will say this. The deal was President Obama's only true international victory. No Sunni state liked the deal. 

That said, we, following the UK's historical place in the Middle East backed the Sunni over the Shia. And there are reasons. You cannot negotiate with Iran. We should never have gone into Iraq, but once we did, they decided to make it a place to kill Americans. You are dealing with a government that believes god is on their side. We have a fucked President, but I believe in the sanity of our people, including the JCS, etc. Not everyone in SOCOM is General Boykin. 

 

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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Posted

I saw this posted elsewhere and it’s interesting to me to consider. 
 

The mainstream media and DC establishment that always pushes war was falling all over themselves pushing Trump to aggressively confront Syria after what was likely a fake chemical attack. Putting us directly in confrontation with Russia by proxy etc. 

Now for the most part they’re besides themselves against what Trump did. What’s the difference this time?

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28904

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Sir, I think it is a bad deal. They never were going to agree. Iran knows Saudi is going to (or has via South Africa) developed Nukes. The big joke when I was in the Middle East was the Paki nukes were paid for  by the Saudis and they decided what islamic slogans were on them. We gave Iran a cash lifeline at a time they could barely export AK's. Look at how quickly they powered up. It was that cash infusion. Iran was never going to give up their nuke program. Never. 

But then I am just a UT fan on a message board.  

He asked you if the deal was being followed. You didn't answer that question. The IAEA and all other responsible agencies like our intelligence services and those of our allies say it was. Trump is alone in saying it wasn't. What say you? 

Regardless of what you think of the deal, which is worse? Giving them back their money with a deal in place, even one you don't like, or giving them their money back with no deal? Now they have their money back and no agreement to restrict their nuclear ambitions whatsoever. 

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28904

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Posted
23 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

You’re just one person, but thanks for your input. 
 

I asked because the starting point in this forum is that voiding the nuclear deal is what started the recent escalations and that it was unnecessary. It was a great deal, the best etc. 

You were hoping he would justify Trump's behavior, that's all you're interested in. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26800

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Posted

hehehe, this board does not want to know what I think about the ME, but concerning the chemical attacks, man, there are so many actors. I think it was done on the inside. Losers do shit like that. Where did they get it? Well Assad had a solid stock pile, some he purchased from Iraq (WMD MOFO). If there is one actor who benefited from the attack it was turkey. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26800

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Posted
4 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

He asked you if the deal was being followed. You didn't answer that question. The IAEA and all other responsible agencies like our intelligence services and those of our allies say it was. Trump is alone in saying it wasn't. What say you? 

Regardless of what you think of the deal, which is worse? Giving them back their money with a deal in place, even one you don't like, or giving them their money back with no deal? Now they have their money back and no agreement to restrict their nuclear ambitions whatsoever. 

I did. I said never. Iran was never going to follow the deal. You seem to have faith in international organizations. I don't, and I work with them. 

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Enchubben

Enchubben 5598

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Iran has never been in a corner Sir, not since the revolution. They are the Aggies of the Middle East. The Clerics were active before they took power. Being the Shia state they always were on the offensive, it is just that most Americans were not paying attention. My family has been fighting them since the revolution. My father worked ops for desert 1. My cousin was sitting on boats guarding tankers in the 80's. In Peru (1992) they tried to take out my mother. In Bosnia it was the first time they shot at me. I was working development right after the Dayton Accords. In Afghanistan they hit my development team, ironically killing 2 Shia. Brit MOD ran the tests to confirm it was Iranian explosives in the IED. My teams crime? They worked for an international company. So spare me your excuses. This is a bad dude, they are a bad government. I am not saying we are better, but alas, that is the way the world is. 

I am having dinner tonight with my old Afghan Interpreter. He knows this will lead to more bloodshed in his homeland, yet he is happy we are finally truly fighting Iran. As he told me last night, Al Qods is the silent killer in the Islamic world. And he is a Hazara Shia who lived in Iran. 

Thank you for sharing your family’s story and your experience and shedding some truth.

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6th Street

6th Street 6655

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Posted

"Questions, the obvious ones like: Is Iran really the greatest threat we face? And who's actually benefiting from this? And why are we continuing to ignore the decline of our own country in favor of jumping into another quagmire from which there is no obvious exit?

'By the way, if we're still in Afghanistan 19 years, sad years later, what makes us think there's a quick way out of Iran ... ?"

- Tucker Carlson lol

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7851279/Tucker-Carlson-asks-Iran-really-greatest-threat-face-Trumps-drone-strike.html

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

He asked you if the deal was being followed. You didn't answer that question. The IAEA and all other responsible agencies like our intelligence services and those of our allies say it was. Trump is alone in saying it wasn't. What say you? 

Regardless of what you think of the deal, which is worse? Giving them back their money with a deal in place, even one you don't like, or giving them their money back with no deal? Now they have their money back and no agreement to restrict their nuclear ambitions whatsoever. 

 

19 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

You were hoping he would justify Trump's behavior, that's all you're interested in. 

nope. I wanted to hear the opinion of someone who appears to have more intimate knowledge of the Middle East than the top 100 posters here combined. I’m sorry it went against what you believed to be true.

But hey, he’s just one person. It doesn’t make his opinion the 100% truth. So you can hang your hat on that. 

 

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Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand

Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13619

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Posted

I wish I could remember who this expert was discussing this when the nuclear deal was put in place, but if I remember correctly it was framed as sort of an unspoken given that ultimately Iran could get around the deal, or cheat, but with the deal in place, it would set them back by a decade, thus worthwhile.

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