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Perpetual Middle East Geopolitical Quagmire Megathread

Hugo Stiglitz

By Hugo Stiglitz
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David Dennison

David Dennison 18660

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Just now, Johnny Sack said:

Last pocket of ISIS surrounded. 

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-air-force/2018/10/03/last-pocket-of-isis-fighters-surrounded-dod-official-says/

 

U.S. troops and their local partner forces have surrounded what has been called the “last pocket of ISIS resistance,” according to military officials involved in the campaign.

The final push, known as Operation Roundup, is in its third week. It is occurring in the Middle Euphrates River Valley’s Deir ez-Zor province, close to the Iraq-Syria border.

Syrian Democratic Forces, backed by the Operation Inherent Resolve coalition’s fire support, have dialed back the Islamic Stateprecipitously over the past few years.

I guess that means terrorism is over.

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

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1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Glad our boys overseas are doing their jobs.

But ISIS isn’t going to be fully defeated militarily.  They’re an ideology.  Kinda like the Nazis.  Yeah we won but we still have Nazis walking around. 

Sure. There are a handful still around.  They don’t matter though.  

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Macanudo

Macanudo 12928

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Glad our boys overseas are doing their jobs.

But ISIS isn’t going to be fully defeated militarily.  They’re an ideology.  Kinda like the Nazis.  Yeah we won but we still have Nazis walking around. 

The ones who wore Hugo Boss and killed millions or the ones who live in their mom's basement?

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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So the Saudis tortured and murdered a WaPo columnist and the only consequence will be an increase in bribes to the DC blob. Love how transparently the Saudis take advantage of how corrupt our institutions are. They know how the game is played and don’t give a fuck about how it looks to the few that bother to follow along. 

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17566

Posted
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7 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

This is a fascinating story that I'm surprised isn't getting more attention.

The WH isn't going to say a damn thing about it because if he had his way, he'd be doing it as well. 

Also, dotard is a giant, gaping pus wound of a coward.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25523

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22 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

This is a fascinating story that I'm surprised isn't getting more attention.

It is getting quite a bit of attention in the international media. Al Jazeera is all over it, but they are pretty anti-Saudi. 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/erdogan-saudi-officials-prove-khashoggi-left-consulate-181008154856631.html

Saudi Arabian officials must prove that journalistJamal Khashoggi, who has been missing since last week, had left the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.

"We have to get an outcome from this investigation as soon as possible. The consulate officials cannot save themselves by simply saying 'he has left'," Erdogan told a news conference in Budapest on Monday.

"The relevant authorities are obligated to provide proof of this claim, on this matter. If he left, you must prove this, you will prove this, even if it's with visuals. Those who ask Turkish authorities 'where is he?' should first be asking 'how did this happen?'" Erdogan added.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45785719

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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What an interesting way to frame this story.  This state sanctioned murder of a journalist could be a great opportunity to demonstrate how much the regime has reformed! 

Quote

Now, the prince has an opportunity to demonstrate that his new Saudi Arabia can be a place where crises such as Khashoggi’s disappearance are handled with genuine concern for a citizen, even if he was a critic of the government, and with respect for the processes of law and diplomacy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-10-09/jamal-khashoggi-disappearance-tests-saudi-arabia-reforms?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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Saudis flew in a team to murder and dismember the reporter.   If we really wanted to punish the Saudi royalty family we could, but they have too many business interests that would be screaming at DC. 

Still murdering a journalist and pretending to be a friend of the West isn’t easy for the US to ignore.

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Shady Ray

Shady Ray 1633

Posted
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Saudis flew in a team to murder and dismember the reporter.   If we really wanted to punish the Saudi royalty family we could, but they have too many business interests that would be screaming at DC. 

Still murdering a journalist and pretending to be a friend of the West isn’t easy for the US to ignore.

LOL. The Saudis only play second fiddle to Israel in DC. And fortunately for the Saudis, their interests NEVER diverge.

 

So no one screaming at DC is going to make a shits worth of difference. 

Edited by Shady Ray
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104628

Posted
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On 10/8/2018 at 1:39 PM, DDD Dad said:

This is a fascinating story that I'm surprised isn't getting more attention.

When our own president supports and agrees with the outcome (he's jealous that he can't wax journalists, and he sure as shit isn't going to piss off a regime that funnels tens of millions of dollars a year directly into his hands), it's not a diplomatic story at all.

The Saudis killed a journalist.  Our regime, AT BEST, doesn't give a shit because $$$, and at WORST, supports it because it stands as a good warning to nosy journalists everywhere. So, no story.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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Not much will happen.  Perhaps there will be some financial sanction but the Saudi actual king doesn't care.  If it cost $50M to make the problem go away, no problem.  For the 15 people flown in for the murder, I'm sure they are all set up for life since they might not be able to ever leave the Kingdom again for fear of being arrested.

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17566

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Not much will happen.  Perhaps there will be some financial sanction but the Saudi actual king doesn't care.  If it cost $50M to make the problem go away, no problem.  For the 15 people flown in for the murder, I'm sure they are all set up for life since they might not be able to ever leave the Kingdom again for fear of being arrested.

Or you chop their heads off and dump them in a hole in the desert.  

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DDD Dad

DDD Dad 14252

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Not much will happen.  Perhaps there will be some financial sanction but the Saudi actual king doesn't care.  If it cost $50M to make the problem go away, no problem.  For the 15 people flown in for the murder, I'm sure they are all set up for life since they might not be able to ever leave the Kingdom again for fear of being arrested.

I heard somewhere today (probably on The Daily podcast, which was focused on this story) that some members of Congress have requested an investigation that will trigger automatic sanctions against Saudi for human rights violations if it is determined that they killed him.  Will try to see if I can find a link.

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DDD Dad

DDD Dad 14252

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Here's a pretty good explanation:

CNN Article

Quote

President Donald Trump is facing new pressure to investigate the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and determine whether to impose sanctions on those responsible after receiving a letter from a bipartisan group of senators Wednesday.

The letter, which triggers an "investigation and Global Magnitsky sanctions determination" was penned by the top Republican and Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, chairman Sen. Bob Corker and ranking member Sen. Bob Menendez, along with the leaders of the appropriations subcommittee for the State Department, Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democrat Sen. Patrick Leahy.
Under the terms of the Magnitsky legislation, the President can impose sanctions on individuals or countries that are deemed to have committed a human rights violation.
 
* * * *
 
The letter sent to Trump by the bipartisan group of senators increases the pressure on the administration to act. It gives the White House 120 days to "determine whether a foreign person is responsible for an extrajudicial killing, torture, or other gross violation of internationally recognized human rights against an individual exercising freedom of expression" and to report back to the Foreign Relations Committee with a decision on how it plans to act.
It specifically asks the President to make a determination in relation to Khashoggi.
Prior to the letter's release, senators were given access to a two-page classified report on Khashoggi, according to a Senate aide. "The intelligence reports are very direct, very short and give further credence to the fact that the focus needs to be on Saudi Arabia right now," Corker said.
Members of the Gang of Eight are being briefed in more detail: House Intelligence ranking Democrat Rep. Adam Schiff said he had been briefed on the matter, and Senate Intelligence ranking Democrat Mark Warner said he expected a briefing later.
One-fifth of the Senate — all members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee besides Sen. Rand Paul — signed the letter.
"The entire Senate Foreign Relations Committee, sans Rand Paul, and the relevant appropriators all agreed to sign this request. The administration would be foolish not to follow the law here by rejecting their request," one Senate aide told CNN.
Asked if the letter puts pressure on the Trump administration, Corker responded, "Oh it does, of course."
"It's not intended though as a shot at them, it's intended to put in place ... it's the forcing mechanism to ensure that we use all the resources available to get the bottom of this and if in fact at the very highest levels of Saudi Arabia they have been involved in doing this, that appropriate steps will be taken to sanction them," Corker added.
Following the letter's release, Corker specifically noted that the sanctions could affect the highest levels of the Saudi regime.
"It's a very strong signal I think from the foreign relations committee. Again it's an act that we can take without passing legislation. It is a forcing mechanism. I don't look at this in any way to try to cross the bows of the administration. I don't. I do look at it certainly has a shot across the bow at Saudi Arabia and these are very serious steps," he said.
Corker also said that the administration was not given a heads up about the letter prior to its release to reporters, adding that he was unsure about how Trump might respond given his close relationship with the Saudi crown prince.
"This is a step that we are taking that we can take unilaterally that is a forcing mechanism and it does mean that in a serious way an investigation has to take place. And if in fact at the highest levels they have been involved in the murder of a journalist who just happened to write against some of the things they are doing in their country, they will be under tremendous pressure to follow this wherever it goes," he said.
The letter was also signed by Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Ben Cardin (D-Md.), John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Todd Young (R-Ind.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Cory Booker (D-NJ), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Chris Coons (D-Del.), Jim Risch (R-Idaho) and Tom Udall (D-N.M).

 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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16 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

I heard somewhere today (probably on The Daily podcast, which was focused on this story) that some members of Congress have requested an investigation that will trigger automatic sanctions against Saudi for human rights violations if it is determined that they killed him.  Will try to see if I can find a link.

It will be difficult to prove or even determine that he was killed.    When the Saudis are offering Turkish police to come into the building and search, that says that they've covered there tracks.   Now I bet the US govt knows and there are leaks that we intercepted some Saudis communications but are we going to officially reveal our surveillance methods to expose the murder?  

My guess is that we will officially condemn Saudi for most likely kidnapping the guy but that we cannot prove it.  If we say that the SA govt murdered someone in Turkey, would that automatically trigger sanctions?  If so, I think we avoid that word.

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17566

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I'm sure the Turks have a spy on the inside and that's how they're so sure this happened, but can't say how they know.  That was clear from the moment this came out.  The Turks know what happened, the Saudis know the Turks know, but the Turks can't reveal too much or they reveal their source.  The fact they have such a source probably has the Saudis scrambling right now to out them.  

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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What exactly Kushner and the Saudi royal talked about in Riyadh may be known only to them, but after the meeting, Crown Prince Mohammed told confidants that Kushner had discussed the names of Saudis disloyal to the crown prince, according to three sources who have been in contact with members of the Saudi and Emirati royal families since the crackdown. Kushner, through his attorney’s spokesperson, denies having done so.

“Some questions by the media are so obviously false and ridiculous that they merit no response. This is one. The Intercept should know better,” said Peter Mirijanian, a spokesperson for Kushner’s lawyer Abbe Lowell.

On November 4, a week after Kushner returned to the U.S., the crown prince, known in official Washington by his initials MBS, launched what he called an anti-corruption crackdown. The Saudi government arrested dozens of members of the Saudi royal family and imprisoned them in the Ritz-Carlton Riyadh, which was first reported in English by The Intercept. The Saudi figures named in the President’s Daily Brief were among those rounded up; at least one was reportedly tortured.

The Saudi Embassy did not respond to questions from The Intercept. The White House referred questions to National Security Council spokesperson Michael Anton. Anton declined to comment, referring questions on Kushner’s discussions with MBS to Lowell.

It is likely that Crown Prince Mohammed would have known who his critics were without Kushner mentioning them, a U.S. government official who declined to be identified pointed out. The crown prince may also have had his own reasons for saying that Kushner shared information with him, even if that wasn’t true. Just the appearance that Kushner did so would send a powerful message to the crown prince’s allies and enemies that his actions were backed by the U.S. government.

One of the people MBS told about the discussion with Kushner was UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, according to a source who talks frequently to confidants of the Saudi and Emirati rulers. MBS bragged to the Emirati crown prince and others that Kushner was “in his pocket,” the source told The Intercept.

https://theintercept.com/2018/03/21/jared-kushner-saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman/

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LongestHorn

LongestHorn 759

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Turkish intelligence reportedly have audio and video recordings from inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul where Jamal Khashoggi’s Saudi captors can be heard interrogating, torturing, and ultimately murdering him. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/10/12/turkey-has-recordings-jamal-khashoggis-torture-murder-saudi/

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17566

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Turkish intelligence reportedly have audio and video recordings from inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul where Jamal Khashoggi’s Saudi captors can be heard interrogating, torturing, and ultimately murdering him. 
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/10/12/turkey-has-recordings-jamal-khashoggis-torture-murder-saudi/

Damn. That didn’t take long.
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

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15 hours ago, Fozzz said:

Our material support of the ongoing genocide in Yemen in is way, way, way more fucked up than giving a tacit green light for MbS to knock off some haters.  Evil empire shit.  

Our government is comfortable separating little kids from their parents.  Geneocide halfway around the world doesn’t move the needle. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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18 hours ago, Fozzz said:

Our material support of the ongoing genocide in Yemen in is way, way, way more fucked up than giving a tacit green light for MbS to knock off some haters.  Evil empire shit.  

Yes but "wars" can be justified.   While we can always condemn other countries for attacks, the world has usually frowned upon assassinations/murders by the govt for dissidents or journalists.   

Trump failing to understand that you have to hold SA accountable is indicative of his nature.  He says SA is buying $110B worth of weapons from us so that is more important than the journalist.  One, that number is disputed.  Two, does it matter?    However that attitude lends itself to understanding how Trump most likely cared less about doing business with anyone with $$ in their pocket.  

I'm shocked if there is audio/video of the guy being tortured and killed.  Whoever leaked out that recording better look out.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

Posted
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4 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

Something's happening but I'm not smart enough to figure it out from here.

Out of Islamic countries, the Turks hold the most unfavorable view of the Saudis. Turkey is trying to cause a split between the West and Saudi Arabia.  They’ve got Congressional Republicans on board.  Releasing the pastor gives Trump a little trophy he can parade around as well, but I don’t see Trump budging, because the Saudis have Koosh wrapped around their pinky  

Turks could release video of the Saudis killing the guy, and Trump will have another “there are good people on both sides” moment. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I’m shocked if there is audio/video of the guy being tortured and killed.  Whoever leaked out that recording better look out.

Why?  It’s the Turks we are talking about, and it happened in Turkey.  Either they have somebody in the embassy (probably quite a few) and/or they are paying off/blackmailing Saudi employees.  Or all of the above. 

Or the Israelis could have intercepted something going back to Riyadh and given it to them. 

MBS is clearly the kind of guy that would want proof, and if they aren’t moving the body, that would be video. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104628

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3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Out of Islamic countries, the Turks hold the most unfavorable view of the Saudis. Turkey is trying to cause a split between the West and Saudi Arabia.  They’ve got Congressional Republicans on board.  Releasing the pastor gives Trump a little trophy he can parade around as well, but I don’t see Trump budging, because the Saudis have Koosh wrapped around their pinky  

Turks could release video of the Saudis killing the guy, and Trump will have another “there are good people on both sides” moment. 

Saudis played this (and have and are playing team Trump) perfectly.  They picked a time and circumstance when they could do exactly what they wanted: 1) Trump is the king of "the press is the enemy of the people," 2) he actually ADMIRES tyrannical dictator type shit, 3) any counterargument that can be put in $$ terms (like $10 billion) will prevail in his simple mind, and 4) his family has a personal interest and investment in the KSA.

The KSA could invade Canada right now, and Trump would, at the very least, stay out of it.  But who are we kidding?  He'd also up our arms sales to the KSA because hey, they're in a war and they have an urgent need.

At this point in our history, you can fill in most any country's name in the following statement: "The USA is ___________'s bitch."

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