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Perpetual Middle East Geopolitical Quagmire Megathread

Hugo Stiglitz

By Hugo Stiglitz
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ousuxndallas
ousuxndallas

Trump is the antithesis of that pussy Obama. The reasons why you guys hate Trump are the reasons we love him. He told Iran not to start shit, and when they did, he laid the wood. #MAGA

Brian Fantana
Brian Fantana

You've seriously got to be kidding me. In literally any other country in the world, Sanders and Warren would be considered centrists. The Overton window has shifted so far to the right in this fucked

Red Five
Red Five

You love him because he's a career criminal and conman and has no idea what he's doing and is historically corrupt and is incapable of telling the truth and is a truly terrible human being? That's wei

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bernorange

bernorange 8385

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Let's work through a thought experiment.  Let's say that Trump acknowledges the obvious.  Let's say that the investigation is honest and reports that MBS ordered the assassination.  Let's say that the USA is then obligated by the Magniski (sp?) Act to impose economic sanctions.

What do you think happens next?

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13706

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I believe that the saudis will ultimately officially admit that a rogue person/team ordered this and NOT the king or prince.  They will apologize, offer up the criminals for execution, and suggest some type of economic sanction against them.   Trump will praise them for their transparency and order some type of meaningless sanction.    And since the king and prince have told trump that they didn’t order the execution, what can trump do?  

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I believe that the saudis will ultimately officially admit that a rogue person/team ordered this and NOT the king or prince.  They will apologize, offer up the criminals for execution, and suggest some type of economic sanction against them.   Trump will praise them for their transparency and order some type of meaningless sanction.    And since the king and prince have told trump that they didn’t order the execution, what can trump do?  

They'll probably execute the 2nd guy on Kushner's hitlist for killing the 1st guy. Probably already have his signed confession drawn up. 

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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1 hour ago, hayden_horn said:

He was Muslim brotherhood? Where did you find that out?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/08/saudi-journalist-jamal-khashoggi-istanbul

Sorry. “He was reviled for being sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood.”  

Sounds like he viewed it as a smear. Also saw it referenced in a tweet from Nassim Taleb.  

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Shmitty

Shmitty 112

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I really wish our nation had nothing to do with Saudi Arabia, economically, diplomatically, etc.   It would be so nice to have a president who could tell them, to "fuck off we will no longer buy your oil."      But that would just be mental masturbation.  

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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32 minutes ago, Shmitty said:

I really wish our nation had nothing to do with Saudi Arabia, economically, diplomatically, etc.   It would be so nice to have a president who could tell them, to "fuck off we will no longer buy your oil."      But that would just be mental masturbation.  

Or we could topple them, implement martial law, and install a secular strongman dictator. 

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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 15115

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Americans can’t stomach $4.50 per gallon gas, and we need Saudi oil in the market as we continue to squeeze Iran.

It sucks but they are a necessary ally for now. There’s a difference between an ally and a friend. We teamed up with the Soviets to fight Germany.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13706

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32 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Americans can’t stomach $4.50 per gallon gas, and we need Saudi oil in the market as we continue to squeeze Iran.

It sucks but they are a necessary ally for now. There’s a difference between an ally and a friend. We teamed up with the Soviets to fight Germany.

They’re not an ally.   Didn’t MBS effectively say that if the US does anything in terms of sanctions, their response is shutting down the pumps?   That is akin to Putin  saying that his reaction to our sanctions will be nuclear weapons.   It’s taking your biggest threat and using it as your only bargaining chip.   Even Russia knows not to do that.  North Korea doesn’t do that.

Remember when Canada publicly complained about Saudi jailing women activists?  All saudis (students and those in hospitals) were order to leave Canada by the KSA govt.   they were going to punish Canada for discussing human rights.

KSA is telling their world that it’s their way do their highway. Their reactions are nowhere proportional to an threat.  That won’t or can’t be allowed. 

Freeze all Saudi assets in the US/Europe and kick out every member of the royal family out of these countries.  The king and crown prince won’t be in power 24 hours later.   They might be alive in a palace surrounded by guards but that doesn’t mean their running the govt. 

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bernorange

bernorange 8385

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7 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

Or we could topple them, implement martial law, and install a secular strongman dictator. 

How do you think that would play out with the rest of the middle east and the rest of the world?

~~~

I watched a little bit of cable news yesterday and happened to catch the Cheeto talking about how the recent arms sale to Saudi Arabia is the biggest sale ever done.  It was typical Cheeto bluster about the biggest, hugest whatever, but it got me to thinking that it might not be a coincidence that SA is taking on a more active role in the middle east (Yemen) and building it's military (arms sales).  This would seem to be the natural course of events after the USA (Obama) refused to be their puppet in attacking Iran (et al.). 

We (Joe Public) aren't privy to all the diplomatic discussions that take place between nations and heads of state, but there was a point a few years ago when SA was upset and making a lot of noise about relations with the USA and it all sort of faded away quietly.  Maybe we are now seeing the reason for the fade.

I've said it before, but we've made a deal with the devil in SA.  As long as we are dependent upon the current fiat monetary system, we will be dependent upon them.

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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 15115

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They’re not an ally.   Didn’t MBS effectively say that if the US does anything in terms of sanctions, their response is shutting down the pumps?   That is akin to Putin  saying that his reaction to our sanctions will be nuclear weapons.   It’s taking your biggest threat and using it as your only bargaining chip.   Even Russia knows not to do that.  North Korea doesn’t do that.
Remember when Canada publicly complained about Saudi jailing women activists?  All saudis (students and those in hospitals) were order to leave Canada by the KSA govt.   they were going to punish Canada for discussing human rights.
KSA is telling their world that it’s their way do their highway. Their reactions are nowhere proportional to an threat.  That won’t or can’t be allowed. 
Freeze all Saudi assets in the US/Europe and kick out every member of the royal family out of these countries.  The king and crown prince won’t be in power 24 hours later.   They might be alive in a palace surrounded by guards but that doesn’t mean their running the govt. 


They’re an ally. And MBS is a POS.
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shnsajax

shnsajax 3605

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Americans can’t stomach $4.50 per gallon gas, and we need Saudi oil in the market as we continue to squeeze Iran.

It sucks but they are a necessary ally for now. There’s a difference between an ally and a friend. We teamed up with the Soviets to fight Germany.


Trump called Canada a threat despite being our biggest oil supplier. He has no problem throwing tariffs on China and screwing over our farmers and needing to bail them out with tax payer money. So why can’t the world greatest negotiator say a single word to the Saudi’s.
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woohorn

woohorn 1131

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Anything to the reports that US intelligence knew of credible threats to his life and didn't warn him b/c it was SA?

Not sure how "intelligence" would even go about warning an individual citizen, or how this guy wouldn't have known he was in some sort of danger, but the US position on sanctions/retaliation is really weakened if complicit.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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22 minutes ago, shnsajax said:

 


Trump called Canada a threat despite being our biggest oil supplier. He has no problem throwing tariffs on China and screwing over our farmers and needing to bail them out with tax payer money. So why can’t the world greatest negotiator say a single word to the Saudi’s.

 

Did you hear they bought a whole floor in one of his buildings?  These guys come and spend 40 50 million dollars at his properties. 

His words. Does Trudeau do that? Nope. Rich Chinese do buy in Manhattan, but not really in Trump buildings. His clientele is mostly Russian and Arab, not surprisingly. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90542

Posted
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17 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

We are the United States. Why should we give a flying fuck about hurting Saudi Arabia’s feelings?

Trump is just showing how much of a compromised coward he is in all this. 

We don’t seem to have a problem with hurting the feelings of our closest allies, countries that shed blood and lost lives alongside us  in Afghanistan and Iraq.   

But we don’t want to offend countries who literally butcher dissidents in other countries.  

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bernorange

bernorange 8385

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Apparently Khashoggi was pretty tight at one time with OBL and the head of Saudi intelligence.  He (Khashoggi) apparently also lived in Virginia (at least part time).  What are the odds that this guy was a CIA asset (and probably why the neoconservatives are so pissed)?

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Amobie

Amobie 58

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13 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Apparently Khashoggi was pretty tight at one time with OBL and the head of Saudi intelligence.  He (Khashoggi) apparently also lived in Virginia (at least part time).  What are the odds that this guy was a CIA asset (and probably why the neoconservatives are so pissed)?

He was buddies with Osama Bin Laden.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmF7vOX1SJc

 

Edited by Amobie
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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 15115

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1 hour ago, shnsajax said:

 


Trump called Canada a threat despite being our biggest oil supplier. He has no problem throwing tariffs on China and screwing over our farmers and needing to bail them out with tax payer money. So why can’t the world greatest negotiator say a single word to the Saudi’s.

 

The answer to pretty much anything Trump does is "he could have handled it better". I'm just restating the politics of having SA as a necessary ally.

I think a world free from petroleum dependency will be a better world, and SA is at the top of the reasons why. This cloak and dagger shit is one (horrible) thing, but check out what's about to happen to Israa al-Ghomgham, in broad fucking daylight, and sanctioned by SA.

Global politics makes strange bedfellows.

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28904

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40 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Apparently Khashoggi was pretty tight at one time with OBL and the head of Saudi intelligence.  He (Khashoggi) apparently also lived in Virginia (at least part time).  What are the odds that this guy was a CIA asset (and probably why the neoconservatives are so pissed)?

How is that apparent?

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13479

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Saudi Arabia needs us far more than we need them.

The issue isn't what America needs, however, it's what our wealth class needs.

Our wealth class is deeply in bed with Saudi Arabia, so they pay to spread the message that we ALL need Saudi Arabia.

And the conservative water carriers spread the message for free on social media.

bing bong

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bernorange

bernorange 8385

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24 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

How is that apparent?

Which part?

Quote

... Prior to his disappearance, Khashoggi had been writing op-eds for The Washington Post and was living in Virginia. ...

... A young Osama bin Laden, who was among the US-backed militants fighting the Soviets, invited Khashoggi to Afghanistan to do an interview. ...

... Khashoggi's time in Afghanistan and subsequent coverage as a foreign correspondent launched him into an accomplished career as a journalist and editor in Saudi Arabia.

The media in Saudi Arabia is closely controlled by the Saudi royal family, so as he climbed the ladder of the country's media world, he became closer with its ruling class.

As he rose in prominence, Khashoggi served as a royal adviser, and at times traveled with King Abdullah. Due to a close relationship he had with Prince Turki al-Faisal, the Saudi intelligence chief, it's rumored that Khashoggi also worked as a Saudi spy.

...

https://www.businessinsider.com/missing-saudi-journalist-jamal-khashoggi-ties-to-osama-bin-laden-islamists-2018-10

 

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Nivek

Nivek 17330

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1 minute ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Ah, because he once interviewed bin Laden, he was "pretty tight" with bin Laden in your estimation. "Apparently." 

Wow, that's a stretch. Ramble on. 

Same metrics apply to Brett Kavanaugh?   Of course not. 

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shnsajax

shnsajax 3605

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1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:

The answer to pretty much anything Trump does is "he could have handled it better". I'm just restating the politics of having SA as a necessary ally.

I think a world free from petroleum dependency will be a better world, and SA is at the top of the reasons why. This cloak and dagger shit is one (horrible) thing, but check out what's about to happen to Israa al-Ghomgham, in broad fucking daylight, and sanctioned by SA.

Global politics makes strange bedfellows.

Agreed, but Trump's insistence that coal is important and wind energy needs to go away only helps to prove he knows shit and doesn't care. Its about him, getting votes, and lining his pockets. Oh and us selling weapons to SA too. 

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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 15115

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1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

Saudi Arabia needs us far more than we need them.

The issue isn't what America needs, however, it's what our wealth class needs.

Our wealth class is deeply in bed with Saudi Arabia, so they pay to spread the message that we ALL need Saudi Arabia.

And the conservative water carriers spread the message for free on social media.

bing bong

Who is hurt more by $5 per gallon gas?

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bernorange

bernorange 8385

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10 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Ah, because he once interviewed bin Laden, he was "pretty tight" with bin Laden in your estimation. ...

I didn't try to make it out to be anything more than it was.  He had a relationship with OBL.  He had relationships with the Saudi royal family (and head of the intelligence apparatus).  I would think that might be (or have been) of interest to the CIA.  Maybe living a stone's throw from Langley was a coincidence. Maybe not.  If he was a CIA asset, it would, IMO, explain the outsized reaction from many of the actors in DC.

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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3 hours ago, shnsajax said:

 


Trump called Canada a threat despite being our biggest oil supplier. He has no problem throwing tariffs on China and screwing over our farmers and needing to bail them out with tax payer money. So why can’t the world greatest negotiator say a single word to the Saudi’s.

 

Because our reserve currency status is the most important advantage/weapon we have. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13479

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$5/gallon gas is bad for the US economy in multiple ways, but that wasn't the question.

Oil is 90% of their fiscal revenue, and high gas prices in the US lead to a focus on renewable/alternative sources of energy. The world would follow us (it's actually leading in many cases, but we are the prime mover). We would suffer through the transition from oil, but they will completely die. They need to keep everyone hooked on cheap oil in order to save up enough to transition their economy. High oil prices in the US will just accelerate the death of oil.

 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13706

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37 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Well well well.
 

given that the general thought is that MBS was behind the murder, you have to wonder if even his father is questioning MBS' ability to effectively lead.  The murder of a journalist is setting back their country's growth for years.   Summits like this one can set relationships and partnerships for years.   

The next king of KSA will be ground breaking because he will likely be the first king to NOT be a son of Saud.  But it doesn't mean it has to be MBS.   He was only named crown prince last year when he replaced a cousin.   

While KSA has power, we can't allow them to start murdering people, especially in other countries.   And it's still amazing that they kidnapped and forced the Lebanon PM to retire.  World leaders seem to have just conveniently forgotten that.

 

 

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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 15115

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$5/gallon gas is bad for the US economy in multiple ways, but that wasn't the question.
Oil is 90% of their fiscal revenue, and high gas prices in the US lead to a focus on renewable/alternative sources of energy. The world would follow us (it's actually leading in many cases, but we are the prime mover). We would suffer through the transition from oil, but they will completely die. They need to keep everyone hooked on cheap oil in order to save up enough to transition their economy. High oil prices in the US will just accelerate the death of oil.
 


See that wasn’t so hard
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Hornius Emeritus

Hornius Emeritus 12779

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12 hours ago, Shmitty said:

I really wish our nation had nothing to do with Saudi Arabia, economically, diplomatically, etc.   It would be so nice to have a president who could tell them, to "fuck off we will no longer buy your oil."      But that would just be mental masturbation.  

 

Where have you gone, John Anderson?


05anderson1-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29556

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8 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Please do explain. 

The clear implication in the new right-wing "he was tight with OBL" line is that he was an asshole so he deserved what he got. "He was pretty tight with" is nowhere near remotely the same as "they had a relationship." "He was pretty tight with" = they were fucking friends. If you're going to make that claim, you better have better evidence of their friendship than the fact that he fucking interviewed him. The world is full of great journalists who put their lives on the line every day in conflict zones interviewing assholes. That's extremely shitty evidence that they were friends. For you to parrot the new right-wing bullshit "he was tight with" line, then back off to "I just said they had a relationship" is disingenuous and something you used to be better than.

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