9 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

What is story on John Clark? Can he contribute? So rare to see a top 40 recruit get redshirted these days

bo ogden is 247’s no.40 player in his class and he absolutely needs a redshirt.

also, i hate to have to keep banging this drum, but all over this site and twitter i see fans touting this “top 10 recruiting class” and how it’s this great thing for next year. not the case. goosby will have a big role, but the other two guys will likely not be ready to contribute for Texas next year, as they are shooters who need to bulk up and just straight up get better in basically every area before they’re ready to play in the SEC. next season’s team will be relying heavily on portal players to contribute if we want to be on the right side of the bubble.

Edited April 9Apr 9 by Derka

1 minute ago, Derka said:

also, i hate to have to keep banging this drum, but all over this site and twitter i see fans touring this “top 10 recruiting class” and how it’s this great thing for next year. not the case. goosby will have a big role, but the other two guys will likely not be ready to contribute for Texas next year, as they are shooters who need to bulk up and just straight up get better in basically every area before there ready to play in the SEC. next season’s team will be relying heavily on portal players to contribute if we want to be on the right side of the bubble.

It works both ways. The top-end guys are what make a class. The fact we even have a player signed who will play a big role in the SEC as a freshman means the class deserves to be top 10, because that is rare.

I don't think there are many guys, at any position, sitting outside the top 50-75 who would be ready to contribute significant minutes in year 1 at a big boy school. So if you aren't going to spend like Duke or Kansas or Arkansas out of HS to get multiple 5-stars, having a class like Texas has is probably the best you can hope for.

1 minute ago, Hookem2147 said:

It works both ways. The top-end guys are what make a class. The fact we even have a player signed who will play a big role in the SEC as a freshman means the class deserves to be top 10, because that is rare.

I don't think there are many guys, at any position, sitting outside the top 50-75 who would be ready to contribute significant minutes in year 1 at a big boy school. So if you aren't going to spend like Duke or Kansas or Arkansas out of HS to get multiple 5-stars, having a class like Texas has is probably the best you can hope for.

agreed. i just don’t want a bunch of fans showing up in january next year going, “what happened to this top ranked recruiting class, why aren’t they doing anything, are they busts?”. with proper development ogden and sterling should be good players for the future, but fans shouldn’t expect much from them next year.

Wishcasting specific players this early is the most incredible exercise in futility. 95% of players aren't announcing their intentions for a week or two minimum unless the bridges at their current school are that badly burnt.

The player on our roster I'm most curious about is Duru. I almost wonder if he was hidden to help keep him an extra season more easily given that he got a couple shots early but was still obviously raw.

Beyond point guard the most glaring issue we had was a complete absence of rim protection/help defense. Matas got a little better there in March through specific game planning but if you want to compete he has to be at least average as a rim protector and his complete lack of instincts and lateral movement is just going to be hard to overcome even though we ran drop to hide these deficiencies as much as possible.

Vok has got to put on muscle first.

He has got to be stronger next year.

17 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Vok has got to put on muscle first.

He has got to be stronger next year.

He needs to practice FTs until the start of next season. Keep shooting until he makes 100 FTs every day.

Here is my assessment for next year:

Guard

• Simeon Wilcher – Capable of starting on a top-10 team (already did with St. John). Will be a key starter with another year improvement.    

• Austin Goosby (6'5) - Natl. #26.  Solid all-around player. Expect 15-20 mpg. Role player next year.

• Joe Sterling (6'4) - Natl. #108.  44% 3PT on 8 attempts.  Expect 10-15 mpg. Minor role next year.

• Need – Must get a high level point guard. Elite floor general who can handle the ball and close games. Also need another solid 3 and D combo guard.  Need to get upper class talent to give the young guys time to mature for a year or two.

 Wing

• Dailyn Swain (6'8) - Will be preseason 1st Team SEC if he returns. Must improve 3 pt shooting and defense.

• Cam Heide (6'7) - Has started 28 / 38 games. Will ideally come off the bench and double his shot attempts.

• Bo Ogden (6'5) - Natl. #37 – 46% 3PT on 7 attempts.  Role player next year or two.

• Need - If Swain leaves that will free up NIL to go big game hunting.  One way or another we will need major scoring from the wing. If it isn’t Swain, we will need to go get someone.  We need the forwards to step up so Swain can start at the 3 instead of the 4. This will move Heide to come off the bench. 

 Power Forward

• Nic Codie (6'8) – I expect continued improvement and a starting role.  Needs to pack on 10-20 pounds.  He may be the key to our season.

• Declan Duru (6'8) - I still think he will be a beast eventually. Positive sign that Codie mentions him coming back.  He is built like a truck.

• John Clark (6'9) – Doubt he contributes much in his RS-FR year.  Need to start getting him minutes and keep him for 3-4 years..

• Need – Not much if everyone stays and improves as expected.

 Center

• Vokietaitis (7'0)- Averaged 27+ mpg in conference. Needs to improve FT shooting to 75%+ and improve his composure.

• Lewis Obiorah (7'1) - Still likely to need another year to develop. Maybe 5-10 mpg this year

• Coleman Elkins (6'10) – Development freshman who will likely redshirt.

• Need - A backup big that can play the 4 or 5 to spell Vok during fould trouble and give us 15 mpg spread across the two positions. Ideally a very physical defender who can take the pressure off Vok. 

 Overall priorities:

1. Get Swain $3M to come back and develop him into a top 15-20 pick (instead of fringe 1^st round)

2. Sign an elite upper class floor general point guard

3. Sign a 3 and D upper class combo guard

4. Sign a backup upper class center who can bang and play defense

2 hours ago, Derka said:

bo ogden is 247’s no.40 player in his class and he absolutely needs a redshirt.

also, i hate to have to keep banging this drum, but all over this site and twitter i see fans touting this “top 10 recruiting class” and how it’s this great thing for next year. not the case. goosby will have a big role, but the other two guys will likely not be ready to contribute for Texas next year, as they are shooters who need to bulk up and just straight up get better in basically every area before there ready to play in the SEC. next season’s team will be relying heavily on portal players to contribute if we want to be on the right side of the bubble.

I get what you're saying but I think Ogden is given a shot early. Obviously we won't have all of these guys next year and not all of them will play next year but in addition to Ogden and Sterling not being guaranteed in the rotation we have Duru, Clark, Obiorah already as guys who were too raw to get any chance. Obviously we were too good to be able to give them real shots in meaningful games to see what we had and too bad to get them in vs teams that were overmatched against us but we need rotational minutes out of a couple of these guys depending on who stays but you can't have that many guys on scholarship you don't expect to be in the rotation/contribute.

I agree that we're going to have to rely heavily on portal players as everyone does if we want to take a big step forward in competing in the SEC and being a top 25 team. I'm curious who you want to return on our roster (assuming Swain is gone) because I'd imagine Wilcher, Codie, Heide, Goosby, Matas are expecting 25+ mpg roles if they return. Personally, and I know this is going to be a really unpopular opinion a day after our great feel good run ended, I don't think anyone in our rotation should be a lock to return.

25 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Here is my assessment for next year:

Guard

• Simeon Wilcher – Capable of starting on a top-10 team (already did with St. John). Will be a key starter with another year improvement.    

• Austin Goosby (6'5) - Natl. #26.  Solid all-around player. Expect 15-20 mpg. Role player next year.

• Joe Sterling (6'4) - Natl. #108.  44% 3PT on 8 attempts.  Expect 10-15 mpg. Minor role next year.

• Need – Must get a high level point guard. Elite floor general who can handle the ball and close games. Also need another solid 3 and D combo guard.  Need to get upper class talent to give the young guys time to mature for a year or two.

 Wing

• Dailyn Swain (6'8) - Will be preseason 1st Team SEC if he returns. Must improve 3 pt shooting and defense.

• Cam Heide (6'7) - Has started 28 / 38 games. Will ideally come off the bench and double his shot attempts.

• Bo Ogden (6'5) - Natl. #37 – 46% 3PT on 7 attempts.  Role player next year or two.

• Need - If Swain leaves that will free up NIL to go big game hunting.  One way or another we will need major scoring from the wing. If it isn’t Swain, we will need to go get someone.  We need the forwards to step up so Swain can start at the 3 instead of the 4. This will move Heide to come off the bench. 

 Power Forward

• Nic Codie (6'8) – I expect continued improvement and a starting role.  Needs to pack on 10-20 pounds.  He may be the key to our season.

• Declan Duru (6'8) - I still think he will be a beast eventually. Positive sign that Codie mentions him coming back.  He is built like a truck.

• John Clark (6'9) – Doubt he contributes much in his RS-FR year.  Need to start getting him minutes and keep him for 3-4 years..

• Need – Not much if everyone stays and improves as expected.

 Center

• Vokietaitis (7'0)- Averaged 27+ mpg in conference. Needs to improve FT shooting to 75%+ and improve his composure.

• Lewis Obiorah (7'1) - Still likely to need another year to develop. Maybe 5-10 mpg this year

• Coleman Elkins (6'10) – Development freshman who will likely redshirt.

• Need - A backup big that can play the 4 or 5 to spell Vok during fould trouble and give us 15 mpg spread across the two positions. Ideally a very physical defender who can take the pressure off Vok. 

 Overall priorities:

1. Get Swain $3M to come back and develop him into a top 15-20 pick (instead of fringe 1^st round)

2. Sign an elite upper class floor general point guard

3. Sign a 3 and D upper class combo guard

4. Sign a backup upper class center who can bang and play defense

Stating the obvious but too many FR and some "meh". We need attrition.

I hadn't realized we were still going to have this many players on the roster.

Edited March 27Mar 27 by avidhornslurker

41 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Simeon Wilcher – Capable of starting on a top-10 team (already did with St. John).

Should beg the question of how he ended up at Texas if things were that peachy at St. John’s.

42 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Dailyn Swain (6'8) - Will be preseason 1st Team SEC if he returns. Must improve 3 pt shooting and defense.

I don’t think many realize that Swain shot 39% from 3 in SEC play.

5 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Should beg the question of how he ended up at Texas if things were that peachy at St. John’s.

I don’t think many realize that Swain shot 39% from 3 in SEC play.

I wonder if more people want him to shoot more - that 39% is probably because he is selective with his shot. He only shot 11 more 3s than Wilcher in SEC play and 10 fewer than Heidi.

3 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Should beg the question of how he ended up at Texas if things were that peachy at St. John’s.

Weird season for Wilcher.

Terrible in non-conference play. Then beginning to middle of SEC play he was really good, so much so that he probably should have been stealing minutes from Pope. Then the end of the season he was terrible again.

I wouldn't mind Wilcher back but I see no reason why we should commit any major resources to him.

26 minutes ago, avidhornslurker said:

I wouldn't mind Wilcher back but I see no reason why we should commit any major resources to him.

Which means he is gone because he ain't sticking around as a senior for free and with no real role.

• 
• Joe Tipton @JoeTipton

NEWS: San Diego State guard Miles Byrd, the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year, plans to enter the @TransferPortal, he told @On3.

The 6-6 junior averaged 10.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.9 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game this season.

https://t.co/P2CLLLO2iq

• 7:06 PM · Mar 27, 2026

Good clear writeup @HookEm

Goosby, I think we see him play starting minutes for most of the season.

Wilcher, while I'm not as down as others on the board are about him, I'm curious to see how it works out, because I don't know how much you play Goosby alongside Wilcher if Swain comes back.

If Swain comes back, I'm not so sure we need a starting PG. Swain often played point forward this year and Goosby will want the ball in his hands. I think if Swain comes back, you get the best 3 and D guard you can that's comfortable with the ball.

Sterling 10-15 mpg seems like a stretch. Those are Wilcher's if he stays.

Handing Nic Codie the 4 after him looking more comfortable on the offensive end in the tournament seems a bit risky to me. I really like him as a 6th man. If he developed a 3 point shot, he could be our Naz Reid. If Codie wants to be a starter I think he needs to put on weight. We still have to be able to win in the SEC.

My top priorities:

• Retain Swain

• Retain Vok

• 3 and D guard

• Starting PF that can play the 5 at times when Codie is in at the 4

• Backup PG that plays D

Edited March 27Mar 27 by I Plead Da Fif

swain is gone. vok will be back. the team will be built around vok, so he’s not going anywhere, but swain’s dream is not to help Texas be more than a bubble team in a rebuilding year, it’s to play in the NBA, and seeing as he’s a lock to be drafted, ghats where he’ll go.

Feeling like you got robbed in the tournament can be a motivator to coming back for guys, but yeah, if he's getting multiple first round grades, he gone

The only way we keep him is if he gets a 2nd round grade and the money guys can pony up enough to keep him around. Unlikely, but you never know...

I guess I just didn't see it as such a sure thing if he's not a 1st rounder. His mocks seem to put him right on the edge of 1st round early 2nd depending upon team's needs and fits.

1 minute ago, I Plead Da Fif said:

I guess I just didn't see it as such a sure thing if he's not a 1st rounder. His mocks seem to put him right on the edge of 1st round early 2nd depending upon team's needs and fits.

won’t matter to him. he wants to get the clock started so that he can get to his second contract as soon as possible. if we had a potential final four team returning it would be one thing- he’d have an opportunity to shine as the leader/best player on a big time team, and he could potentially improve his draft stock to the point of it making sense for him to come back. but that’s not the case. he needs to take care of himself and go pro now and get that clock started.

2 hours ago, HookEm said:

Joe Sterling (6'4) - Natl. #108.  44% 3PT on 8 attempts.  Expect 10-15 mpg. Minor role next year.

I'd be shocked if this happened.

And that may be the best long term financial decision for Swain. Players don't always make it, but we shouldn't count on his return.

Goosby replaces Swain then. Adjust my above to be starting PG and SG with 40% 3P. Wilcher has a chance to play 20 mins a game.

I wish I were as confident as you about Vok coming back. UNC or Kentucky could have an insane offer. Or Meatchicken offers him Yaxel Lendeborg's $$$. If we retain Vok this offseason, I will feel like our money guys do want to win bad, even if we don't outspend for everyone.

Edited March 27Mar 27 by I Plead Da Fif

I never saw it with Wilcher. I hope we don't spend resources on him. I didn't think about Vok getting money whipped to go somewhere else. There is a limit in my mind to bringing him back if it is opportunity cost elsewhere. Don't be cheap but don't be stupid.

Go get a big 4 starting quality PG, rim protector and depth at wing, then hope some of the guys that didn't play (Codie, Duru, Clark) improve and contribute. If Goosby is starter worthy with the rest of that, that's a top 15 team at least, particularly since the freshman class next year isn't as good as the last two.

• 
• Jonathan Givony @DraftExpress

NEWS: Colorado's Isaiah Johnson is entering the transfer portal, his agency Klutch Sports tells DraftExpress.

The 18-year-old broke Colorado's all-time freshman scoring record, leading all Power 5 freshman guards in scoring efficiency.

• 9:31 PM · Mar 27, 2026

13 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

I never saw it with Wilcher. I hope we don't spend resources on him. I didn't think about Vok getting money whipped to go somewhere else. There is a limit in my mind to bringing him back if it is opportunity cost elsewhere. Don't be cheap but don't be stupid.

Go get a big 4 starting quality PG, rim protector and depth at wing, then hope some of the guys that didn't play (Codie, Duru, Clark) improve and contribute. If Goosby is starter worthy with the rest of that, that's a top 15 team at least, particularly since the freshman class next year isn't as good as the last two.

There was a time during SEC play that I could squint and see Wilcher as a decent to good on ball defender and if he manages to get stronger or develops an outside shot he'd play more and more minutes. If he doesn't do either, maybe Texas isn't for him.

Disagree. Vok's growth potential is top 3 scoring big man in college basketball and a walking double double. Next year, I bet he puts up 2000 Chris Mihm numbers if he's in a Texas uniform.

Vok has potential to get a lot better just based on the possibility of adding an actual PG that can get him favorable shots.

2 hours ago, I Plead Da Fif said:

Good clear writeup @HookEm

Goosby, I think we see him play starting minutes for most of the season.

Wilcher, while I'm not as down as others on the board are about him, I'm curious to see how it works out, because I don't know how much you play Goosby alongside Wilcher if Swain comes back.

If Swain comes back, I'm not so sure we need a starting PG. Swain often played point forward this year and Goosby will want the ball in his hands. I think if Swain comes back, you get the best 3 and D guard you can that's comfortable with the ball.

Sterling 10-15 mpg seems like a stretch. Those are Wilcher's if he stays.

Handing Nic Codie the 4 after him looking more comfortable on the offensive end in the tournament seems a bit risky to me. I really like him as a 6th man. If he developed a 3 point shot, he could be our Naz Reid. If Codie wants to be a starter I think he needs to put on weight. We still have to be able to win in the SEC.

My top priorities:

• Retain Swain

• Retain Vok

• 3 and D guard

• Starting PF that can play the 5 at times when Codie is in at the 4

• Backup PG that plays D

IMO, we need a big time 4, a solid Point Guard and a work out the rest. these 2 things alone will improve Matas even more than a Swain replacement.

If I’m Miller, I would go to CDC and the donor bros and let them know that with this roster and two hurt players, we were possibly 5 minute from an Elite 8 birth in year 1.

And that next year, Fort Worth is hosting the 1st and 2nd rounds, and San Antonio is hosting the s16/E8.

We have a great shot to get to the FF if you come thru with the money we need.

Aanyone coming in who can keep a white Pg in front of them? That was painful

1 hour ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

Aanyone coming in who can keep a white Pg in front of them? That was painful

Well, when one of your guys is playing with a broken foot and another is playing with a seriously sprained ankle, lateral movement and quickness afoot are not going to be strengths.

13 hours ago, Pancho said:

If I’m Miller, I would go to CDC and the donor bros and let them know that with this roster and two hurt players, we were possibly 5 minute from an Elite 8 birth in year 1.

And that next year, Fort Worth is hosting the 1st and 2nd rounds, and San Antonio is hosting the s16/E8.

We have a great shot to get to the FF if you come thru with the money we need.

*berth

But yeah

19 hours ago, Teryor said:

Wishcasting specific players this early is the most incredible exercise in futility. 95% of players aren't announcing their intentions for a week or two minimum unless the bridges at their current school are that badly burnt.

The player on our roster I'm most curious about is Duru. I almost wonder if he was hidden to help keep him an extra season more easily given that he got a couple shots early but was still obviously raw.

Beyond point guard the most glaring issue we had was a complete absence of rim protection/help defense. Matas got a little better there in March through specific game planning but if you want to compete he has to be at least average as a rim protector and his complete lack of instincts and lateral movement is just going to be hard to overcome even though we ran drop to hide these deficiencies as much as possible.

FWIW, Duru is significantly shorter than his listed height.

I was surprised to see him listed at 6’8, so that checks out. Dude is a solid muscle though.

• 
• Joe Tipton @JoeTipton

Yale forward Isaac Celiscar plans to enter the @TransferPortal, source told @On3.

The 6-6 sophomore averaged 13.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game this season. Scored 17 points against Alabama. Represented by @lamfsports.

https://t.co/P2CLLLO2iq

• 1:59 PM · Mar 25, 2026

I asked Claude AI what we could learn from Millers previous stops and if it could apply to Texas next year

Now I have everything — the complete record, stats, and context for all four coaching stops. Let me build the pattern analysis.

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The pattern here is one of the most consistent in college basketball coaching — with one notable asterisk that actually makes the case stronger, not weaker.

The three data points and what they tell us

In Miller's first season at Xavier (2004-05), the Musketeers went 21-11, won the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament and reached the NCAA Tournament First Round. His second year produced a 25-9 record, the A-10 regular-season title, and advancement to the NCAA Tournament Second Round. His third year at Xavier produced 30-7 and the Elite Eight. Baylor

Miller led Arizona to a 16-15 record in his debut season, missing the postseason for the first time in 25 years. In his second season, he guided Arizona back to college basketball relevance — first outright Pac-10 regular season title, first top-10 AP ranking since 2007, a 30-win season, and an Elite Eight appearance. Waco The turnaround was remarkable: after going 16-15 in his first year, the Wildcats went 30-8, won the Pac-10, and came within two points — 65-63 to eventual national champion Connecticut — of advancing to the Final Four. Waco

The Xavier II second year is the outlier, but it requires context. The Musketeers struggled in Miller's second year back, posting a 16-18 record, which broke the team's long streak of winning seasons. What the record doesn't say: two projected starters — Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter — suffered season-ending injuries before a single practice. That's not a coaching pattern failure; it's a roster decapitation event. The validation: Xavier would return to national prominence in 2024-25, finishing with a 21-10 regular-season record and reaching the NCAA Tournament as a No. 11 seed, led by the resurgent All-Conference forward Zach Freemantle. Water Data For Texas The system works when healthy.

The three universal patterns across every healthy Year 2

Pattern 1: The Transformed Returner. This is the most consistent signature of a Miller Year 2. At Arizona, Derrick Williams was considered the least prolific player in Miller's first UA recruiting class. However, from the time he set foot on campus, Williams steadily improved to the point where he was named Pac-10 Freshman of the Year following his first season. In Year 2, his explosiveness and ferocity on the court made the nation take notice — consensus All-America honors and Pac-10 Player of the Year accolades. Williams averaged 19.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, shot 59.5% from the floor and 56.8% from three, with 26 blocked shots — all in 30 minutes per game. Waco He went #2 in the NBA Draft. Miller essentially turned a guy expected to be a role player into one of the best players in the country in 12 months.

At Xavier I, he did the same with Justin Doellman and Derrick Brown — who went from seldom-used reserves to a first-team All-A-10 pick and the No. 40 pick in the 2009 NBA Draft, respectively. Wikipedia

At Texas, the candidate is obvious: Matas Vokietaitis averaged 15.7 points and 7.2 rebounds in year 1, starting all 36 games, and is expected to return for Year 2. Waco News Now Vokietaitis is the Williams analogue — a big who already put up serious numbers in Year 1 under a new system. A full offseason in the Miller program, with cleaner spacing and better portal additions around him, could produce a Williams-level leap.

Pattern 2: Defense becomes culture. In Miller's Year 2 teams, the defensive identity is no longer just a system being installed — it becomes who the team is. Xavier's Year 2 team allowed just 63.4 points per game, good for 50th nationally Waco — a significant defensive identity in a mid-major conference that wasn't there in Year 1. Arizona's Year 2 team ranked 14th nationally in offensive efficiency and won 17 straight home games. Waco History

Jordan Pope already confirmed this dynamic is in motion at Texas in Year 1: "His intensity, his emphasis on all the little things. Some nights we're not going to be playing our best offensively or making shots, so what are we doing to impact the game? Every day in practice — just emphasizing our effort level, what we're doing on defense, our deflections." Galerie Year 2, the deflection culture and defensive IQ that Pope described is already embedded. The new portal additions don't have to learn it from scratch — they walk into a team that already has the identity established.

Pattern 3: The recruiting class makes a tier jump. After every Year 1 showing, Miller's recruiting class ranking surges. At Arizona, from not being ranked in the top 25 recruiting classes by ESPN in 2010, Miller guided the Cats to a top-10 recruiting class for his second recruiting cycle. Taylor & Francis Online At Texas, Miller has already assembled the 12th-best recruiting class for 2026-27, with the Sweet 16 run likely improving those odds even further as the portal opened April 7. Galerie The #12 national class arriving for Year 2 is strikingly similar to where Arizona was heading into Miller's second year in Tucson.

The NIL variable: the accelerant the previous Year 2 teams never had

This is where the Texas situation diverges from every previous Miller stop in a way that works strongly in his favor.

At Xavier I (2005-06) and Arizona (2010-11), Year 2 improvement was entirely organic — player development, system installation, and the natural recruiting cycle. There was no mechanism to quickly import a proven 22-year-old All-Conference player from another program if a roster need became apparent in December. Miller had to play with what he had and what was coming in the spring recruiting class.

As Miller himself said about the NIL era: "What once was is no longer, whether that means a postseason meeting with a player that would return, how you go about recruiting, even to some degree player development, how you build your roster. I think it's just a moving target, and there's a lot that goes into it, a lot of thought. And even in the last year, I think things are constantly evolving and growing, and we're all trying to evolve and adapt and grow with it." Galerie

The House Settlement, officially approved in June 2025, allows schools to share revenue directly with athletes. Galerie Texas has one of the biggest NIL collectives and athletic department budgets in the country. Miller can now do both simultaneously: develop Vokietaitis organically through the Miller coaching system the same way Williams developed at Arizona, AND use the portal and revenue sharing to import one or two proven upper-classmen to fill the specific roster holes the Sweet 16 run revealed. That combination — organic player development plus targeted portal additions — is something his previous Year 2 teams never had available.

The Year 2 ceiling at Texas

Miller became the first Texas head coach to get the Longhorns to the Sweet Sixteen in his first season. Waco Texas became the sixth team to start in the First Four and reach the Sweet 16 since the First Four began in 2011. Waco Purdue used a last-second tip-in to win 79-77 — two points separated Miller from the Elite Eight in Year 1.

That two-point margin is the detail that matters most for projecting Year 2. Miller has been to the Elite Eight four times in his career and never to the Final Four. His Year 2 teams at Arizona and Xavier I both dramatically outperformed their Year 1 results. The SEC schedule — which Miller credited directly for the team's tournament readiness: "There's no easy game in the SEC. The league itself prepares you for the postseason" Waco — is the best regular-season preparation in the country and should produce a meaningful seed improvement from the 11-seed Texas carried this year.

The historical pattern says: 24 to 28 wins, upper half of SEC, solid NCAA at-large bid, and 3-5 seed range. The Elite Eight is not a projection — it's the ceiling if Vokietaitis returns and fully internalizes Miller's system for a second year. The Final Four, which Miller has never reached despite four Elite Eight appearances, is the compelling question hovering over his entire Texas tenure. The pattern says Year 2 is when it gets real. History says Year 3 at his previous stops is when it gets elite.

13 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

The historical pattern says: 24 to 28 wins, upper half of SEC, solid NCAA at-large bid, and 3-5 seed range. The Elite Eight is not a projection — it's the ceiling if Vokietaitis returns and fully internalizes Miller's system for a second year.

color me very skeptical at this prognostication.

arizona, michigan, illinois, tennessee, duke, and uconn all fit this description. purdue is the only team still alive that isn’t a particularly big team. nearly all of the best teams these days are just full of size. we need to be recruiting to this trend.

edited to add:

top 4 teams in kenpom:

michigan- 28th in avg height

arizona- 8th

duke- 2nd

illinois- 1st

Edited March 29Mar 29 by Derka

30 minutes ago, Derka said:

arizona, michigan, illinois, tennessee, duke, and uconn all fit this description. purdue is the only team still alive that isn’t a particularly big team. nearly all of the best teams these days are just full of size. we need to be recruiting to this trend.

edited to add:

top 4 teams in kenpom:

michigan- 28th in avg height

arizona- 8th

duke- 2nd

illinois- 1st

Too soon.

They sure as fuck looked much bigger than us.

23 hours ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

Aanyone coming in who can keep a white Pg in front of them? That was painful

White, black, or purple.....he's an All American point guard that is the leading scorer at half vs Zona.

On 3/27/2026 at 4:38 PM, Derka said:

swain is gone. vok will be back. the team will be built around vok, so he’s not going anywhere, but swain’s dream is not to help Texas be more than a bubble team in a rebuilding year, it’s to play in the NBA, and seeing as he’s a lock to be drafted, ghats where he’ll go.

I disagree.

I think Swain is coming back.

He is not a first round pick in the draft.

Swain is a lock to be a 1st (and literally every expert I've seen has him as a projected 1st) not just because of talent but positional scarcity, this draft is like 45% lead guards 45% bigs.

• 
• Kevin Sweeney @CBB_Central

First two teams in the Final Four are the two best international recruiting staffs in the country.

• 3:03 AM · Mar 29, 2026

Notable for obvious reasons. Miller has obviously shown he likes going international with Duru/Obiorah as project finds and Vok is like a quarter credit internationally. Frankly I'm not as educated on international recruiting as I'd like to be. Duru and Obiorah signed in May and July but weren't the most highly sought after but this will obviously play into whatever our plans are.

10 hours ago, Steamboat1874 said:

I disagree.

I think Swain is coming back.

He is not a first round pick in the draft.

It feels like I've been seeing definitive statements like this for at least a couple of decades, and fairly often they turn out to be wrong.

19 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It feels like I've been seeing definitive statements like this for at least a couple of decades, and fairly often they turn out to be wrong.

So you are saying there is a chance…….

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

It feels like I've been seeing definitive statements like this for at least a couple of decades, and fairly often they turn out to be wrong.

You are wrong. You’ve never seen such statements.

College Basketball Portal Thread: Texas already at work

When Sean Miller was hired last year on March 24, it was the same day the transfer portal opened. So Miller was hiring a staff, evaluating the Texas roster fully which included conversations with players to see who could fit, dealing with the continued upward movement in NIL spending across the sport and thus working from behind on building a roster for 2025-26 in a short window of time. Fast forward 368 days, and Miller and staff just wrapped up a Sweet 16 appearance in year one, a very solid high school class signed and on the way, and a year to prepare for April Madness (OTF's new name for the basketball transfer portal).

To start this thread, I take a look at where the roster stands headed into next week. 

Texas needs ...
Four-man that has versatility - Face up ability is just as key, as size to defend in the paint and help Matas protecting the rim more than the roster had this year. 

Team runner/CG/PG - Texas needs that experienced piece to go with Austin Goosby. Goosby will play a CG role as he gets his feet wet in the college game. But this player has to be a perimeter threat. 

Backup big - A backup for Matas, or third level big. Rim protection and rebounding is the key here. Price tag goes up the more skilled a backup big is. 

Third guard with experience - Has to be a perimeter threat. Needs to have size too, however. 

The list of portal additions could ascend to 6-7 depending on what Miller and staff decide on players who are eligible to return.

The Longhorns currently have eight players that have the possibility to return:

The Swain decision ...
Dailyn Swain will go to the NBA Draft if he get's a first round "guarantee", and that is certainly possible. The lone reason he's considered a fringe first rounder is because the 2026 NBA Draft first round is considered one of the deepest in years. If he doesn't get a guarantee, the door is cracked he could opt to return. The 2027 draft doesn't have the depth of the 2026 draft and there is always room for any player to continue to improve, but we aren't talking about a player that will jump into the stratosphere of the NBA draft and go to 5 or even top 10. So he would likely move up some, but he's a third or fourth option scoring excellent role player in the NBA long term. His all-around game, hoops IQ and versatility is what will define him in the NBA. That's not guys that make huge jumps in the draft. NBA also likes his age in his class. 

Texas wants back, at all cost ...
Center Matas Vokietaitis had a very successful first season of high-major basketball. With the next step expected his junior season, he's a very likely NBA Draft second round pick in 2027. Bottom line, he will be a problem for opponents in 2026-27 in college basketball. He's a player that has many high-powered program reaching out to his agent with big, big NIL possibilities. OTF believes he wants to return to Texas, and the staff wants him back, at all cost. 

Incoming freshman class (4) ...
Austin Goosby, CG, 6-5.5, Melissa (Texas) Dynamic Prep - very likely starter, and possible one-and-done player. Two years in college, max. 

Bo Ogden, W/G, 6-5.5, Austin (Texas) Westlake - Will be a key role player off the bench as a freshman. Very likely 14-18 minute per game player in year one. The ability to shoot the ball at 6-5.5 with strong hoops IQ will make him a key role player early on. 

Joe Sterling, SG, 6-4, Los Angeles (Calif.) Harvard-Westlake - initially taken as a first year developmental player. The elite shooting ability and toughness could land him a small role in year one. 

Coleman Elkins, PF/C, 6-10, Austin (Texas) Blair Academy - stash and development over time prospect with 15 scholarships making this possible. 

Decisions Miller and staff have to make ...
Cam Heide, SF/W, 6-7 - has one year remaining. Could be a solid pairing with Ogden in year one. Perimeter shooting will always be important. The floor spacing shooting threat is key in college basketball. 

Nic Codie, PF, 6-9 - has two years remaining. Tough call here IMO (NIL ask vs what's out there as a possibility for role off the bench is the key here). Was buried prior to Traore being removed from the team. Showed signs of basketball life late in the season. 

Simeon Wilcher, G, 6-4 - one year remaining. We shall see what Texas does here. 

John Clark, PF, 6-9 - Texas believes he can grow in the program and be a quality rebounder and defender in the SEC with continued developing skill level. 

Decla Duru, F, 6-8 - Texas likes Duru's upside. But it may be too far away as he adjusts to college and life in the states.

Lewis Obiorah, C, 7-1 - Same as Duru, but would require more patience. 

1 hour ago, MuellerHorn said:

College Basketball Portal Thread: Texas already at work

When Sean Miller was hired last year on March 24, it was the same day the transfer portal opened. So Miller was hiring a staff, evaluating the Texas roster fully which included conversations with players to see who could fit, dealing with the continued upward movement in NIL spending across the sport and thus working from behind on building a roster for 2025-26 in a short window of time. Fast forward 368 days, and Miller and staff just wrapped up a Sweet 16 appearance in year one, a very solid high school class signed and on the way, and a year to prepare for April Madness (OTF's new name for the basketball transfer portal).

To start this thread, I take a look at where the roster stands headed into next week. 

Texas needs ...
Four-man that has versatility - Face up ability is just as key, as size to defend in the paint and help Matas protecting the rim more than the roster had this year. 

Team runner/CG/PG - Texas needs that experienced piece to go with Austin Goosby. Goosby will play a CG role as he gets his feet wet in the college game. But this player has to be a perimeter threat. 

Backup big - A backup for Matas, or third level big. Rim protection and rebounding is the key here. Price tag goes up the more skilled a backup big is. 

Third guard with experience - Has to be a perimeter threat. Needs to have size too, however. 

The list of portal additions could ascend to 6-7 depending on what Miller and staff decide on players who are eligible to return.

The Longhorns currently have eight players that have the possibility to return:

The Swain decision ...
Dailyn Swain will go to the NBA Draft if he get's a first round "guarantee", and that is certainly possible. The lone reason he's considered a fringe first rounder is because the 2026 NBA Draft first round is considered one of the deepest in years. If he doesn't get a guarantee, the door is cracked he could opt to return. The 2027 draft doesn't have the depth of the 2026 draft and there is always room for any player to continue to improve, but we aren't talking about a player that will jump into the stratosphere of the NBA draft and go to 5 or even top 10. So he would likely move up some, but he's a third or fourth option scoring excellent role player in the NBA long term. His all-around game, hoops IQ and versatility is what will define him in the NBA. That's not guys that make huge jumps in the draft. NBA also likes his age in his class. 

Texas wants back, at all cost ...
Center Matas Vokietaitis had a very successful first season of high-major basketball. With the next step expected his junior season, he's a very likely NBA Draft second round pick in 2027. Bottom line, he will be a problem for opponents in 2026-27 in college basketball. He's a player that has many high-powered program reaching out to his agent with big, big NIL possibilities. OTF believes he wants to return to Texas, and the staff wants him back, at all cost. 

Incoming freshman class (4) ...
Austin Goosby, CG, 6-5.5, Melissa (Texas) Dynamic Prep - very likely starter, and possible one-and-done player. Two years in college, max. 

Bo Ogden, W/G, 6-5.5, Austin (Texas) Westlake - Will be a key role player off the bench as a freshman. Very likely 14-18 minute per game player in year one. The ability to shoot the ball at 6-5.5 with strong hoops IQ will make him a key role player early on. 

Joe Sterling, SG, 6-4, Los Angeles (Calif.) Harvard-Westlake - initially taken as a first year developmental player. The elite shooting ability and toughness could land him a small role in year one. 

Coleman Elkins, PF/C, 6-10, Austin (Texas) Blair Academy - stash and development over time prospect with 15 scholarships making this possible. 

Decisions Miller and staff have to make ...
Cam Heide, SF/W, 6-7 - has one year remaining. Could be a solid pairing with Ogden in year one. Perimeter shooting will always be important. The floor spacing shooting threat is key in college basketball. 

Nic Codie, PF, 6-9 - has two years remaining. Tough call here IMO (NIL ask vs what's out there as a possibility for role off the bench is the key here). Was buried prior to Traore being removed from the team. Showed signs of basketball life late in the season. 

Simeon Wilcher, G, 6-4 - one year remaining. We shall see what Texas does here. 

John Clark, PF, 6-9 - Texas believes he can grow in the program and be a quality rebounder and defender in the SEC with continued developing skill level. 

Decla Duru, F, 6-8 - Texas likes Duru's upside. But it may be too far away as he adjusts to college and life in the states.

Lewis Obiorah, C, 7-1 - Same as Duru, but would require more patience. 

Good take.

And I will stand on my comment that Swain will return.

I know for a fact that he loves it here and loves playing for Coach Miller.

I think he comes back and the NIL will be great for him here next season.

Fun read re: Austin Goosby at the McDonald's AA game, from Eric Bossi. (He's the 247 National Basketball Director, so this is not from a Texas guy.)

Former top-100 guy, PG, goes by "Stink". Thats a take on the nickname alone

• 
• IndyStar @indystar

A Lawrence North grad, Azavier "Stink" Robinson is going to test the transfer portal. His season ended with an injury but he showed potential.

• 6:00 AM · Mar 28, 2026

Former top-100 recruit to enter transfer portal after 1 season with Butler basketball

A Lawrence North grad, Azavier "Stink" Robinson is going to test the transfer portal. His season ended with an injury but he showed potential.

indystar.com

• 
• Joe Tipton @JoeTipton

NEWS: Georgia guard Jeremiah Wilkinson plans to enter the @TransferPortal, his agency SOL Sports Group told @On3.

The 6-1 sophomore averaged 17.4 PPG this season. Represented by Michael Carter-Williams and Jalin Sinclair of SOL.

https://t.co/6nB9SQNs6y

• 4:00 PM · Mar 30, 2026

a backcourt of him and goosby would be 🤌🏼. great scorer, he dropped 30+ three times last year. also averaged 1.6 stl. let’s drop a bag on him.

• 
• Evan Miyakawa @EvanMiya

Sananda Fru is a huge name to enter the portal, especially given the market for skilled bigs.

Fru becomes the 2nd highest rated player in the transfer portal at https://t.co/cegyfz8ykZ, behind Colorado's Isaiah Johnson.

• 9:06 PM · Mar 30, 2026

EvanMiya CBB Analytics

Advanced college basketball analytics used widely by coaches, journalists, and fans.

evanmiya.com

On 3/29/2026 at 4:42 PM, Steamboat1874 said:

Good take.

And I will stand on my comment that Swain will return.

I know for a fact that he loves it here and loves playing for Coach Miller.

I think he comes back and the NIL will be great for him here next season.

I was kinda surprised when Gerry had said this on OTF. I took it as Witcher and Obiorah are gone, Duru is gone if they can find someone better.

I guess we should definitely expect Bo to play if his dad is GM.