Updated Bowl Projections per ESPN

[TrashMaster G 17397]

2 hours ago, S11 said:

UF is the worst case.

probably gonna be Bama/UGA loser assuming the don’t make the playoff

If Alabama loses to Georgia, they will still be in the Playoff.  You can keep saying otherwise, but I will bet every dollar that I have, can borrow or steal that you are wrong.

[Bill Lumbergh 7171]

2 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Best part of this tweet is seeing all of the Kentucky & Florida fans argue about who had the shittier loss.

They both suck.

By the way, when Kentucky gets blown out in their bowl, be prepared to hear about how it's bc they did not want to be there since they were left out of ny6 bowls, and not bc they were just a shitty, overrated team all year. 

[Mikey4 2476]

I'm so tired of posts that start with, "if ou wins..."

They're not going to win. Period. They can't stop Ingram and Watson. They can't stop LJH and CJ. Even if Sam struggles with deep passes, so what? OU's Achilles heel is an opposing offense that can sustain long drives of 3 to 5 yards per play, and we're really, really good at doing that. Short runs and short passes are to our advantage. We'll manage the clock, manage possessions, keep their already shitty defense on the field all game, and win.

[ChingoHorns 115]

Fuck OU!

Fuck Chip Brown! 

y tambien ese puto Zach Smith! 

 

[C-Man 27083]

3 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Bama has won every game this year by 20+ points.  They've been the best team BY A LOT over the first 12 weeks.  They're getting in, even with a loss.

Bama's schedule isn't very good this year. The SEC West isn't all that great (hell aggy finished T-2). Louisville is terrible and the other non-conference wins are against Arkansas State, Louisiana and the fucking Citadel (who was tied with Bama at the half, mind you). This won't happen but if Georgia wins Saturday, Bama should be sitting this year's CFP out.

[C-Man 27083]

4 hours ago, S11 said:

They got in against a champion with more losses than them.

 

this year would be a champ with the same record and THIS has yet to happen.

I still don't understand what you're saying.

2017

END REGULAR SEASON

Auburn (10-2, 7-1 loss to LSU)

Bama (11-1, 7-1 loss to Auburn)

Georgia (11-1, 7-1 loss to Auburn)

END SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME BETWEEN AUBURN AND GEORGIA

Georgia (12-1 with SEC Champ, gets CFP bid)

Auburn (10-3 SEC Runner-up with wins over Georgia and Bama)

Bama (11-1, gets CFP bid)

2018

If Georgia wins Saturday, the Dawgs and Bama will have identical 12-1 records and Georgia will have the SEC Championship. Under no circumstance should Bama get into the CFP over undefeated Notre Dame or Clemson or 12-1 Ohio State/Oklahoma teams who have ALL won conference championships.

 

[Chuckie Finster 22611]

11 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Bama's schedule isn't very good this year. The SEC West isn't all that great (hell aggy finished T-2). Louisville is terrible and the other non-conference wins are against Arkansas State, Louisiana and the fucking Citadel (who was tied with Bama at the half, mind you). This won't happen but if Georgia wins Saturday, Bama should be sitting this year's CFP out.

They've won every game by 22 or more points.  And they're Alabama.  I get that maybe if a computer did a blind analysis of resumes, there's a chance that they would not be in the top 4 with a loss... but anyone who thinks the committee is leaving out ALABAMA is out of their mind.

[C-Man 27083]

3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

They've won every game by 22 or more points.  And they're Alabama.  I get that maybe if a computer did a blind analysis of resumes, there's a chance that they would not be in the top 4 with a loss... but anyone who thinks the committee is leaving out ALABAMA is out of their mind.

I didn't say it would happen but it should. If Bama loses on Saturday that will be one game they didn't win by 22+ points. They also wouldn't have the resume (again) to get in without a a couple of key losses.

[Orange&White 5516]

9 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Under no circumstance should Bama get into the CFP over undefeated Notre Dame or Clemson or 12-1 Ohio State/Oklahoma teams who have ALL won conference championships.

 

As a wise man once said, "Deserves got nothin' t'do with it."

 

It's not what SHOULD happen, but that does not mean it WON'T happen. 

[Stella Link 534]

17 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

As a wise man once said, "Deserves got nothin' t'do with it."

 

It's not what SHOULD happen, but that does not mean it WON'T happen. 

TV ratings are also a factor who gets in.  Also think Bama won't get kicked out of the playoffs if they lose Saturday, even though late-season loses, and especially not winning the conference can really hurt a team the most.  But then again, it's the SEC, and it's Bama.  Go figure.

[JBJ 3649]

33 minutes ago, C-Man said:

I still don't understand what you're saying.

If Georgia wins Saturday, the Dawgs and Bama will have identical 12-1 records and Georgia will have the SEC Championship. Under no circumstance should Bama get into the CFP over undefeated Notre Dame or Clemson or 12-1 Ohio State/Oklahoma teams who have ALL won conference championships.

I think he's making the same point.  Leaving out a 1L champion for a 1L non-champion is unprecedented.  I think you could justify this if the SOS's had a wide enough gap, but that's not the case between these 3 teams.  It would be an interesting test case for the committee.

Also, with the exception of TCU that one year, strength of record has been the fall-back crutch for the committee.  Bama might have the worst SOR of the three.

Obligatory, should and will are two different things.

Edited November 28, 2018 by JBJ

[C-Man 27083]

4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

I think he's making the same point.  Leaving out a 1L champion for a 1L non-champion is unprecedented.  I think you could justify this if the SOS's had a wide enough gap, but that's not the case between these 3 teams.  It would be an interesting test case for the committee.

Also, with the exception of TCU that one year, strength of record has been the fall-back crutch for the committee.  Bama might have the worst SOR of the three.

Obligatory, should and will are two different things.

Yeah, gotcha. The winner of Saturday's SECCG is in no matter what. And if Georgia wins, I'm guessing they get two SEC teams in there, which will be another fucking joke.

[S11 16]

48 minutes ago, C-Man said:

I still don't understand what you're saying.

2017

END REGULAR SEASON

Auburn (10-2, 7-1 loss to LSU)

Bama (11-1, 7-1 loss to Auburn)

Georgia (11-1, 7-1 loss to Auburn)

END SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME BETWEEN AUBURN AND GEORGIA

Georgia (12-1 with SEC Champ, gets CFP bid)

Auburn (10-3 SEC Runner-up with wins over Georgia and Bama)

Bama (11-1, gets CFP bid)

2018

If Georgia wins Saturday, the Dawgs and Bama will have identical 12-1 records and Georgia will have the SEC Championship. Under no circumstance should Bama get into the CFP over undefeated Notre Dame or Clemson or 12-1 Ohio State/Oklahoma teams who have ALL won conference championships.

 

Last year Bama who didn’t win their league but finished with a record of 11-1 got in over 11-2 OSU and USC who won their league.   In 2016 Ohio Statedidnt won their league and had an 11-1 record.  They still jumped 11-2 PSU who won their league.

The Playoff has yet to see a 1 loss non-champion jump a 1 loss champ from another league.  So unless teams who won their P5 league have two losses or more there isn’t a precedent for a non-champ to jump them.

[C-Man 27083]

22 minutes ago, S11 said:

Last year Bama who didn’t win their league but finished with a record of 11-1 got in over 11-2 OSU and USC who won their league.   In 2016 Ohio Statedidnt won their league and had an 11-1 record.  They still jumped 11-2 PSU who won their league.

The Playoff has yet to see a 1 loss non-champion jump a 1 loss champ from another league.  So unless teams who won their P5 league have two losses or more there isn’t a precedent for a non-champ to jump them.

OK, now I get it. But I think you would see that if Georgia knocks off Bama this weekend. If Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State and Oklahoma all win this weekend I think the four CFP teams would be:

#1 Clemson

#2 Georgia/ND

#3 ND/Georgia

#4 Alabama

That would shut out both Ohio State and Oklahoma, both of whom would be 12-1 and conference champs, crazy as that sounds. Bama '17 and Ohio State '16 are the only two non-conference champions who have made it to the CFP.

[henrygandorf 29182]

the reality is that even if bama loses, they're in, because they're bama and they've been fucking dominant this season.  hate them if you want, but they've earned it.  people will complain, and ou (if they beat us by 10+) will have a hell of a case.

to that point, they won't lose to georgia, who's been very good, but beatable this season, in an sec without much depth comparable to recent years.

i guess what i'm trying to say, is that a one-loss bama wouldn't have a great resume and doesn't deserve to be in the playoff.  they don't have the resume because the sec isn't as good, and they've avoided the "good" east teams (fla, uga, uk).  but for that same reason, they'll likely blow the doors off of georgia, and it won't matter.  it has seemed all season like everyone is playing for 2nd.

as much as i typically root for chaos, i'll be rooting for alabama to win.

say what you want about the bcs, but they got it right more often than they didn't.  i'm not sure what would happen this year.  it's the classic +1 scenario with 3 undefeateds.  i still think 8 is too many for what college football claimed they were trying to accomplish.

[Spankytoes 1736]

14 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

the reality is that even if bama loses, they're in, because they're bama and they've been fucking dominant this season.  hate them if you want, but they've earned it.  people will complain, and ou (if they beat us by 10+) will have a hell of a case.

to that point, they won't lose to georgia, who's been very good, but beatable this season, in an sec without much depth comparable to recent years.

i guess what i'm trying to say, is that a one-loss bama wouldn't have a great resume and doesn't deserve to be in the playoff.  they don't have the resume because the sec isn't as good, and they've avoided the "good" east teams (fla, uga, uk).  but for that same reason, they'll likely blow the doors off of georgia, and it won't matter.  it has seemed all season like everyone is playing for 2nd.

as much as i typically root for chaos, i'll be rooting for alabama to win.

say what you want about the bcs, but they got it right more often than they didn't.  i'm not sure what would happen this year.  it's the classic +1 scenario with 3 undefeateds.  i still think 8 is too many for what college football claimed they were trying to accomplish.

Wut? I guess if you're an ou fan that's true. 

The fact of the matter is this: If you don't go undefeated in a P5 conference, you lose all rights to bitch about how things play out. Everything else is conjecture. 

[ztejas 43288]

2 hours ago, C-Man said:

Bama's schedule isn't very good this year. The SEC West isn't all that great (hell aggy finished T-2). Louisville is terrible and the other non-conference wins are against Arkansas State, Louisiana and the fucking Citadel (who was tied with Bama at the half, mind you). This won't happen but if Georgia wins Saturday, Bama should be sitting this year's CFP out.

You're an idiot. Can't believe people are still trying to argue this baloney.

1. Bama is going 15-0

2. If they don't, they are going 14-1

It has been over 100 years since a team went undefeated with 20+ point wins in every game. They still play an SEC schedule whether it was relatively weak this year or not compared to years past.

[ztejas 43288]

The second half of that Auburn game was absolutely disgusting. They were hanging 40 yard touchdowns on AU with back ups in the game. Tua was throwing NFL balls to NFL receivers. 

And... Auburn doesn't suck. They aren't Ole Miss.

[George Clooney 378]

4 minutes ago, ztejas said:

You're an idiot. Can't believe people are still trying to argue this baloney.

1. Bama is going 15-0

2. If they don't, they are going 14-1

It has been over 100 years since a team went undefeated with 20+ point wins in every game. They still play an SEC schedule whether it was relatively weak this year or not compared to years past.

Yeah, every year you'll see people saying, "Well Bama didn't play that hard of a schedule". It's always funny to see people finally realize that their schedule doesn't look all that hard because they don't have to play themselves.

[immamac 42563]

Bama isn't losing period, I'll take any action on moneyline for those who think they will. I doubt any of the playoff teams even come within 20 points at final, they are legit playing on another level entirely.

The best possible outcome is that Texas shuts OU out and wins 63-0 and OU falls out of the top 10 and gets so dejected/Kyler Murray dies of a deep depression that they refuse whatever bowl bid they get and just don't play another game at all this season. That's what I'm rooting for. Fuck OU

Plus I already made reservations at the Pontchartrain RV Park and bought pre-game hospitality tickets to the Sugar Bowl. Speaking of which...not to derail the thread, but should we have a Surly Tailgate at the Sugar Bowl if Texas gets in?

[henrygandorf 29182]

i don't need kyler murray to die.  i just want him to leave ou, go play for oakland, make it to the majors, and bat .091 against astros pitchers for his brief mlb career.

[satyanash 14282]

Hypothetically speaking, if Alabama were to lose against jawja wouldn't the BCS have been a perfect solution? Stick Clemson and ND in the championship as the only two unbeaten P5 teams and to hell with any complaints.

[FWD 297]

26 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i don't need kyler murray to die.  i just want him to leave ou, go play for oakland, make it to the majors, and bat .091 against astros pitchers for his brief mlb career.

 

Edited November 28, 2018 by FWD

[ztejas 43288]

2 hours ago, immamac said:

but should we have a Surly Tailgate at the Sugar Bowl if Texas gets in?

Yes

[kopp0e 1135]

 

[henrygandorf 29182]

i was curious to see if espn had the news that was news to most of us regarding the sugar bowl/b12 policy.  i googled "espn bowl projections" and accidentally clicked on the most recent article (silly me) which was "what the bowls would look like if played today".  so naturally they had alabama and georgia playing in the 1 vs 4 slot in the playoffs.

seems like a necessary piece of journalism. 

[ChiTownDoc 21105]

6 hours ago, TrashMaster G said:

If Alabama loses to Georgia, they will still be in the Playoff.  You can keep saying otherwise, but I will bet every dollar that I have, can borrow or steal that you are wrong.

This is a slam dunk unless Bama gets rolled - even then it's not out of the question.  

[ChiTownDoc 21105]

1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

i was curious to see if espn had the news that was news to most of us regarding the sugar bowl/b12 policy.  i googled "espn bowl projections" and accidentally clicked on the most recent article (silly me) which was "what the bowls would look like if played today".  so naturally they had alabama and georgia playing in the 1 vs 4 slot in the playoffs.

seems like a necessary piece of journalism. 

What's cool is how you put ESPN and journalism in the same post.  LOL

[henrygandorf 29182]

i know, my auto-correct wanted to fix it and my browser almost crashed.

[kopp0e 1135]

 

[henrygandorf 29182]

while there are many dumb things about this system (some of which make college football so great), you could argue that the limit on championship teams in the nba is no greater than 5 teams going into a given year for most of the past several decades.  not sure what his point is exactly, but nobody is arguing for teams with shitty records, unless he's saying that a 11-1 team shouldn't be going in front of a 12-0 central florida team.  the flaws in that argument are many.

college football wanted the regular season to matter, they wanted the "best" team to be the champ, and they wanted it settled on the field.  is anyone really claiming that the nfl playoffs are the absolute best way to decide who the "best team in the league" is in a given year?  all sports with large playoff fields get it twisted when a team gets hot, key injuries play a part, or luck/calls/bounces go a certain way (especially in any non-series format).

either establish a 16 team playoff similar to the nfl brackets to determine a champion, or say "you want the regular season to matter and you want it settled on the field" with a very small group of deserving teams.  these are two different ways of settling things.  neither is right or wrong.  but don't tell me the point is one thing and then do the other.

Edited November 29, 2018 by henrygandorf

[kopp0e 1135]

 

[ztejas 43288]

1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

This is a slam dunk unless Bama gets rolled - even then it's not out of the question.  

You'd have to grab a team from the NFL to roll this Bama team. I think Georgia is being slept on a bit and could see them winning - but no one is rolling this Bama team.

I mean shit, they are two deep at starting quarterback. Like... really really good starting quarterback.

[ztejas 43288]

40 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

while there are many dumb things about this system (some of which make college football so great), you could argue that the limit on championship teams in the nba is no greater than 5 teams going into a given year for most of the past several decades.  not sure what his point is exactly, but nobody is arguing for teams with shitty records, unless he's saying that a 11-1 team shouldn't be going in front of a 12-0 central florida team.  the flaws in that argument are many.

college football wanted the regular season to matter, they wanted the "best" team to be the champ, and they wanted it settled on the field.  is anyone really claiming that the nfl playoffs are the absolute best way to decide who the "best team in the league" is in a given year?  all sports with large playoff fields get it twisted when a team gets hot, key injuries play a part, or luck/calls/bounces go a certain way (especially in any non-series format).

either establish a 16 team playoff similar to the nfl brackets to determine a champion, or say "you want the regular season to matter and you want it settled on the field" with a very small group of deserving teams.  these are two different ways of settling things.  neither is right or wrong.  but don't tell me the point is one thing and then do the other.

The issue isn't the playoff, it's the committee. As for the NBA example - there are usually only a handful of teams that could win the title. 7 game series are good at eliminating upsets.

For one game "series" playoffs there are probably 10 or 12 teams any given year that could fluke their way to the title, or at least Cinderella into the championship game.

Think about last year - Georgia beats OU in OT in a game OU should have won, and then Bama beats UGA in an OT game UGA* should have won. Roll the dice 100 times and all three of those teams win the title game a fair amount of times imo. That is RARELY true for the best 3-4 teams in the NBA any given year.

Edited November 29, 2018 by ztejas

[henrygandorf 29182]

7 minutes ago, ztejas said:

The issue isn't the playoff, it's the committee.

oh come on.  yeah, bitching about the committee is fun, but take any group of semi-qualified people and you'll arrive at nearly the same foursome every year.  i could give two shits about who is ranked 7-20 and in what order.  the committee isn't doing anything crazy, and if everything goes to chalk, it'll be bama/nd/clem/ou which is what it should be this season.  if you feel the need to bitch (not you specifically, but whomever is bitching), then bitch about the format.

Edited November 29, 2018 by henrygandorf

[ztejas 43288]

4 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

oh come on.  yeah, bitching about the committee is fun, but take any group of semi-qualified people and you'll arrive at nearly the same foursome every year.  i could give two shits about who is ranked 7-20 and in what order.  the committee isn't doing anything crazy, and if everything goes to chalk, it'll be bama/nd/clem/ou which is what it should be this season.  if you feel the need to bitch (not you specifically, but whomever is bitching), then bitch about the format.

Right, but what if/when it turns to eight teams? Are we going to trust these 12 ass-clowns to get the right EIGHT teams in each season? 

There needs to be more nuance and objectivity. The 12 angry men shtick is getting old and isn't very defensible.

[henrygandorf 29182]

4 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Right, but what if/when it turns to eight teams? Are we going to trust these 12 ass-clowns to get the right EIGHT teams in each season? 

There needs to be more nuance and objectivity. The 12 angry men shtick is getting old and isn't very defensible.

well i would hope if they expand to 8, then it would be the p5 champs + 3 at-large.  in that case, the selection process might actually get easier, at least once they set the rules for mid-majors.  until then...

[ztejas 43288]

2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

well i would hope if they expand to 8, then it would be the p5 champs + 3 at-large.  in that case, the selection process might actually get easier, at least once they set the rules for mid-majors.  until then...

I hope so too. If it is 8 at large the MNC will remain M.

[satyanash 14282]

 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

All college football fans should say "fuck no" to any possibility of a Georgia/Alabama rematch if Georgia wins on Saturday. 

[BurntOrange4Life 74]

23 hours ago, Mikey4 said:

I'm so tired of posts that start with, "if ou wins..."

They're not going to win. Period. They can't stop Ingram and Watson. They can't stop LJH and CJ. Even if Sam struggles with deep passes, so what? OU's Achilles heel is an opposing offense that can sustain long drives of 3 to 5 yards per play, and we're really, really good at doing that. Short runs and short passes are to our advantage. We'll manage the clock, manage possessions, keep their already shitty defense on the field all game, and win.

From your lips to God's ear.

 

[Loco 3752]

 

[GringoSalado 1651]

On 11/28/2018 at 11:25 AM, C-Man said:

Yeah, gotcha. The winner of Saturday's SECCG is in no matter what. And if Georgia wins, I'm guessing they get two SEC teams in there, which will be another fucking joke.

 

2 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

All college football fans should say "fuck no" to any possibility of a Georgia/Alabama rematch if Georgia wins on Saturday. 

I'm as cynical as the next guy but this would mean that Georgia (potentially) has to beat Alabama twice to win the title. Mentioned upthread but IMO that aspect makes this scenario unlikely. Or if not that, potentially much more controversial than Bama making it without playing in the CCG (vs. losing it).

Edited November 29, 2018 by GringoSalado
ousux

[C-Man 27083]

5 minutes ago, GringoSalado said:

 

I'm as cynical as the next guy but this would mean that Georgia (potentially) has to beat Alabama twice to win the title. Mentioned upthread but IMO that aspect makes this scenario unlikely. Or if not that, potentially much more controversial than Bama making it without playing in the CCG (vs. losing it).

I'd like to think you're right -- and I hope you are -- but I don't see any scenario where Bama gets left out unless they get absolutely skullfucked by Georgia.

[satyanash 14282]

So if Georgia wins and blOU gets left out of the playoffs (ha!), we end up in the Alamo Bowl. Would we be playing Wazzu? Or would it be Utah? Don't know if the Pac-12 is like us and sends the CCG loser, or if they go by ranking.

[TKthunder2 4981]

1 minute ago, satyanash said:

So if Georgia wins and blOU gets left out of the playoffs (ha!), we end up in the Alamo Bowl. Would we be playing Wazzu? Or would it be Utah? Don't know if the Pac-12 is like us and sends the CCG loser, or if they go by ranking.

Alamo bowl chooses.  The CCG loser rule only applies to the conference’s NY6 auto bid.

[satyanash 14282]

2 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Alamo bowl chooses.  The CCG loser rule only applies to the conference’s NY6 auto bid.

So perhaps they choose Wazzu? That'll be a high-scoring matchup

Edited December 1, 2018 by satyanash

[mdmost 42876]

You'd think the Alamo Bowl would choose WSU. Leach vs. Texas. That's more entertaining than Texas vs. Utah. 

[taybo20 2815]

2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

You'd think the Alamo Bowl would choose WSU. Leach vs. Texas. That's more entertaining than Texas vs. Utah. 

I don’t think they care about matchup except in terms of potential ticket sales. I would think Utah may travel better. Maybe not tho. Idk. You make a good point about the marketability of the game tho

Edited December 1, 2018 by taybo20

[pacman 7331]

On 11/29/2018 at 1:33 PM, C-Man said:

I'd like to think you're right -- and I hope you are -- but I don't see any scenario where Bama gets left out unless they get absolutely skullfucked by Georgia.

Agree.

They already changed all the unwritten rules to fit Bama into the playoffs. Have to win your conference? That only applies to others nit named Bama. Theh have let Bama in over others because Bama's loss came earlier in the season. The other team lost "too late" in the season. Now, if Bama looses, they will change everything again to not stress late loss vs early loss AND conference championship in the sane season for Bama.

Edited December 1, 2018 by pacman