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Updated Bowl Projections per ESPN

Mdhorn

By Mdhorn
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Vic Mackey
Vic Mackey

You sound like a pussy.

BabaYaga
BabaYaga

Says the fan base lamenting early on this season whether we get 7 or 8 wins this season.  Jesus christ people...we can easily still shit the bed versus WV and Tech is playing good ball.  Chickens.  Eg

Red Five
Red Five

We're most likely going to win the Big 12 sir. 

mdmost

mdmost 43839

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Bevo Num1 said:

Sugar assumes we win the Big 12, correct?

 

 

Correct. In a year where the Sugar is not a playoff site, Big 12 Champ is supposed to go up against the SEC Champ. Since Bama is in the playoff, Big 12 champ not being in the playoff gets the SEC runner up. Fiesta is the fill in bowl for the Group of 5 and an at large. Same with the Peach Bowl.

Edited by mdmost
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Treefidy

Treefidy 1504

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, OU Sucks said:

Yes, ESPN just loves us:

ousucks.png

aggy gotta aggy

The first picker Andrea whatever did a pretty good job over all except she was off by 4 points on our score.  She got OUs point total and was pretty close with aggy and reasonably close in the LSU/UF game.  

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Treefidy

Treefidy 1504

Posted
Posted

Don't want to play UCF, don't really want to play LSU as they are OU first game next year. UGA would be nice.  Whatever the case, here's to hoping CJ and LJH see potential to do something special and come back next year, losing our best players on offense for the bowl game this year would suck.  

 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

If we lost another Big XII game, we'd still likely make the Championship Game.  Win that, and we're in the Sugar Bowl. It's a contactual lock.  Lose that game, and we're 10-3 and out of the Power5 mix, no Peach, no Fiesta, no Sugar.  It's Alamo Bowl at that point.  I don't know where these Peach Bowl projections are coming from.  That mix of games still only favors the 2-loss powerhouses that don't make it into the CFP.  If we're 11-2, it means we won the title game and are headed to the Sugar Bowl.  Unless their thinking is we run the table from here until December, but lose the Big XII championship game and finish 11-2 that way and then we're in the mix for Peach or Fiesta since whoever beats us in Arlington goes to the Sugar Bowl.  But that seems woefully unlikely for us to go undefeated rest of the way and then choke versus WVU or OKL.  

We lose two games and still make the title game due to tie-breakers in head-to-head, then that's another story.  Win it, and it's still the Sugar Bowl.  Lose it, and it could be down to CampingWorld Bowl.  

Iowa State isn't gonna lose between now and when we play them, so suddenly this "3 games for everything" gauntlet we have coming up is up to four games now.  But I see us fairing at best in the Sugar Bowl, and at worst the CampingWorld Bowl, with Alamo being the most likely option should we not take the pennant in Arlington.  5-10% chance in there of making Peach or Fiesta with some confounded scenario.  

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15517

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

CBS Sports prediction has us in the Peach Bowl against Kentucky.

God help us if we lose.  The insufferable Ag's would be cackling like a murder of crows.  And it's KY.  MUCH rather draw FL, even though they are a more difficult match-up. 

There is a time and a place for football platitudes...and this is one of those times:  take it one game at a time.  This team has exceeded expectations.  But we are teetering on the edge.  Getting Sam healthy.  Finishing games in the 4th quarter (offense, I'm talking to you).  Penalties.  Establishing an offensive identity.  We still have a lot to fix.  

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Hiphopopotamos

Hiphopopotamos 21158

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Lobo said:

If we lost another Big XII game, we'd still likely make the Championship Game.  Win that, and we're in the Sugar Bowl. It's a contactual lock.  Lose that game, and we're 10-3 and out of the Power5 mix, no Peach, no Fiesta, no Sugar.  It's Alamo Bowl at that point.  I don't know where these Peach Bowl projections are coming from.  That mix of games still only favors the 2-loss powerhouses that don't make it into the CFP.  If we're 11-2, it means we won the title game and are headed to the Sugar Bowl.  Unless their thinking is we run the table from here until December, but lose the Big XII championship game and finish 11-2 that way and then we're in the mix for Peach or Fiesta since whoever beats us in Arlington goes to the Sugar Bowl.  But that seems woefully unlikely for us to go undefeated rest of the way and then choke versus WVU or OKL.  

We lose two games and still make the title game due to tie-breakers in head-to-head, then that's another story.  Win it, and it's still the Sugar Bowl.  Lose it, and it could be down to CampingWorld Bowl.  

Iowa State isn't gonna lose between now and when we play them, so suddenly this "3 games for everything" gauntlet we have coming up is up to four games now.  But I see us fairing at best in the Sugar Bowl, and at worst the CampingWorld Bowl, with Alamo being the most likely option should we not take the pennant in Arlington.  5-10% chance in there of making Peach or Fiesta with some confounded scenario.  

While you're right that Iowa State isn't going to lose to Baylor or Kansas - that Tech game is hardly an automatic 'W'.

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13567

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Bevo Num1 said:

Sugar assumes we win the Big 12, correct?

 

 

Well...

Ok I am getting sick to my stomach thinking about this...

If OU and Texas both win out and they beat us in the Big 12 title game they would probably go to the playoff and we would be Sugar Bowl bound. But wow would that suck.

Edited by Valmy77
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SwanderedTalent

SwanderedTalent 5761

Posted
Posted

I'm not a huge fan of the perpetual locked-in bowl slotting. We've been to the Alamo Bowl plenty (even one Texas Bowl appearance is too many). I don't care if it's technically more prestigious than the Holiday Bowl, if we can't get into the playoff or a NY6 bowl, I'd rather go to the Holiday Bowl than the Alamo again.

Hopefully that will end up moot. I wasn't enthused with the performance against Baylor, but there's no reason this team can't at least get to the conference championship rematch/game.

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13567

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

God help us if we lose.  The insufferable Ag's would be cackling like a murder of crows.  And it's KY.  MUCH rather draw FL, even though they are a more difficult match-up. 

The Ags will do not regardless of what happens. We could win out, beat Alabama, and hoist the national championship trophy and they would somehow find a way for that to mean we suck and they are awesome. So never worry about how they are going to react, they will always react the same.

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texifornia

texifornia 58723

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Lobo said:

We lose two games and still make the title game due to tie-breakers in head-to-head, then that's another story.  Win it, and it's still the Sugar Bowl.  Lose it, and it could be down to CampingWorld Bowl. 

The Citrus Bowl is a fun name with a fair amount of history, and with this sponsorship style it sounds like it's on a par with the Quick Lane Bowl or some shit.

Edited by texifornia
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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12566

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

CBS Sports prediction has us in the Peach Bowl against Kentucky.

I guess Kentucky could win out with the exception of the UGA game.... but my guess is they are way more likely to loose 2 and probably 3 games.

9-3 gets you to the peach? Nah.

I think this is how it breaks down for each conference for NY6 games:

Independant:

Notre Dame is going to be in at least a NY6.. maybe playoff

Highest G5:

UCF 

ACC:

Clemson is going to at least a NY6. Liekly playoff. I don't see any other team coming out of ACC. Orange is a playoff game so there's no tie-ins for a second team to have an auto-bid into.

NC State w/ only loss to Clemson has a shot I guess to make a NY6 and maybe if Miami upsets Clemson in ACC champ then they could also make for 2 teams getting into NY6.

SEC:

Alabama, Gerogia, Florida, and LSU all have a great shot at NY6 / playoffs. I see just one getting into playoffs, one getting Sugar, and two others getting at-larges.

B1G:

2 teams get into NY6: Ohio State and the winner of Michigan/Penn State. Ohio St. in playoff and the other bid in Rose.

Pac12

1 team gets into Ny6 w/ their auto stop in Rose. Possibly a second team gets in. This would be either Washington / Wazzu / USC dependig on season. They would be competing against a 2nd ACC team or 2nd Big12 team

Big12

UT and either OU or WVU. I dont' think any team makes playoff. The one spot in Sugar is auto-bid...  a second bid would be competeing against PAc12 and ACC's 2nd 

If you had to twist my arm today I would say that.....

Peach: 

UCF vs Florida

Fiesta:

LSU vs OU 

Sugar

UT vs Georgia

Rose

Michigan vs Oregon

Orange

Bama vs Notre Dame

Cotton

Ohio St vs Clemson

 

Edited by Dnaguy
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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5854

Posted
Posted

 

10 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

 

If you had to twist my arm today I would say that.....

Peach: 

UCF vs Florida

Fiesta:

LSU vs OU 

Sugar

UT vs Georgia

Rose

Michigan vs Oregon

Orange

Bama vs Notre Dame

Cotton

Ohio St vs Clemson

 

Ahhh the Notre Dame lottery. There's gonna be a lot of jockeying for the semifinal playoff bye against Notre Dame. 

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smokebomb

smokebomb 360

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

God help us if we lose.  The insufferable Ag's would be cackling like a murder of crows.  And it's KY.  MUCH rather draw FL, even though they are a more difficult match-up. 

There is a time and a place for football platitudes...and this is one of those times:  take it one game at a time.  This team has exceeded expectations.  But we are teetering on the edge.  Getting Sam healthy.  Finishing games in the 4th quarter (offense, I'm talking to you).  Penalties.  Establishing an offensive identity.  We still have a lot to fix.  

This. I know I’m still shell shocked by the last 10 years but we are a few plays away from being 4-3 or even 3-4. 

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 6152

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Posted (edited)

updated:  http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25044587/college-football-bowl-projections-week-8

Hopefully we rise to the occasion every week and win out while remaining injury free.  Still not chosen for the playoff land but Sugar looks better with no UCF.  

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m. (ESPN)

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Texas
Sherman: Texas vs. LSU

 

on a side note, something I haven't considered and is a no win for aggy:

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl

NRG Stadium, Houston
Dec. 27, 9 p.m. (ESPN)

Bonagura: Texas A&M vs. Iowa State
Sherman: Auburn vs. West Virginia

Edited by Mdhorn
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Elmer_Fudd

Elmer_Fudd 22933

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

updated:  http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25044587/college-football-bowl-projections-week-8

Hopefully we rise to the occasion every week and win out while remaining injury free.  Still not chosen for the playoff land but Sugar looks better with no UCF.  

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m. (ESPN)

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Texas
Sherman: Texas vs. LSU

Would love to see aggy vs Iowa State.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, TexasMan said:

Also, do not want to play LSU. Not because I don't like the matchup, but because we already have a home and home with them starting next year. Georgia is intriguing though. 

I would think a bowl selection committee would take that into account.  And this Peach Bowl shit has got to stop.  It's less than a 5% chance of happening.  For it to happen, Texas has to go 11-2, but not win the Big XII Championship.  And for that to happen, the chain of events bottles the mind.

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TreatyOak

TreatyOak 17178

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Lobo said:

I would think a bowl selection committee would take that into account.  And this Peach Bowl shit has got to stop.  It's less than a 5% chance of happening.  For it to happen, Texas has to go 11-2, but not win the Big XII Championship.  And for that to happen, the chain of events bottles the mind.

Sticking by this: 

Sam-11-wins.jpg

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gmr548

gmr548 16681

Posted
Posted
Also, do not want to play LSU. Not because I don't like the matchup, but because we already have a home and home with them starting next year. Georgia is intriguing though. 
This. UGA in the sugar would be a blast though.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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NowThis

NowThis 931

Posted
Posted
Just now, Blanton said:

Sugar Bowl vs. Georgia all god damn day.

I really hope we don’t go to the playoff (that’s absurd to even type) because it will just be a chance to get destroyed by Bama.

ISU, WV, OKState, TxTech > OU, TCU, USC, Maryland.  In the aggregate, the toughest part is yet to come. If you take eyes off the road, it's a crash. 

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TexasMan

TexasMan 11383

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Blanton said:

I really hope we don’t go to the playoff (that’s absurd to even type) because it will just be a chance to get destroyed by Bama.

Dude, you take that scenario every day and twice on Sunday.

Getting to the CFP and even getting BTFO by Bama would do wonders for recruiting, among other benefits. 

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Blanton

Blanton 170

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TexasMan said:

Dude, you take that scenario every day and twice on Sunday.

Getting to the CFP and even getting BTFO by Bama would do wonders for recruiting, among other benefits. 

Would it though?

There would be a tremendous amount of momentum going into next year, especially if we beat a supposed SEC giant like Georgia or LSU. 

We get mudholed by Bama and it looks like a fluke.

Fuck it, I’m just hoping we can get the W in Stillwater and move on. 

 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13567

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Blanton said:

Would it though?

There would be a tremendous amount of momentum going into next year, especially if we beat a supposed SEC giant like Georgia or LSU. 

We get mudholed by Bama and it looks like a fluke.

Meh. I would prefer to take my chances. Besides Georgia or LSU could also mudhole us.

Quote

Fuck it, I’m just hoping we can get the W in Stillwater and move on. 

Right. That is all that matters now.

Edited by Valmy77
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