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Updated Bowl Projections per ESPN

Mdhorn

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Alright, we have to get ready for OSU this weekend, and a very tough 4-game gauntlet at that.  But I'm still kinda hazy from this bye week.  

So, anybody wanna answer me one question.  We win the Big XII, it's Sugar Bowl (yeah, I know-CFP, but for now-let's say Sugar Bowl or better).  We lose that game, and if it's 11-2 we're in the NY6 game, if it's 10-3, we're in the Alamo Bowl.  I doubt we're any worse than that, otherwise-how would be in the league title game to begin with?  

But here's my question, if we were to get to JerryWorld at 11-1 and then lose, and be 11-2...how does the Fiesta or Peach Bowl pick us?  Who gets to go first in this year's scenario?  

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Vic Mackey
Vic Mackey

You sound like a pussy.

BabaYaga
BabaYaga

Says the fan base lamenting early on this season whether we get 7 or 8 wins this season.  Jesus christ people...we can easily still shit the bed versus WV and Tech is playing good ball.  Chickens.  Eg

Red Five
Red Five

We're most likely going to win the Big 12 sir. 

gmr548

gmr548 16533

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Just now, Lobo said:

Alright, we have to get ready for OSU this weekend, and a very tough 4-game gauntlet at that.  But I'm still kinda hazy from this bye week.  

So, anybody wanna answer me one question.  We win the Big XII, it's Sugar Bowl (yeah, I know-CFP, but for now-let's say Sugar Bowl or better).  We lose that game, and if it's 11-2 we're in the NY6 game, if it's 10-3, we're in the Alamo Bowl.  I doubt we're any worse than that, otherwise-how would be in the league title game to begin with?  

But here's my question, if we were to get to JerryWorld at 11-1 and then lose, and be 11-2...how does the Fiesta or Peach Bowl pick us?  Who gets to go first in this year's scenario?  

Don't know the answer to your question, but the Sugar Bowl is also possible in this scenario. If we *cringe* lost to 11-1 OU who proceeded to get their number called for the playoff at 12-1, Texas would be the B12 rep for the Sugar Bowl just as the SEC sends its #2 when its champ goes to the playoff. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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I guess that's a strong possibility.  And again, this is just going by pundit talk---but there are a dozen sites that have us in the Peach Bowl (having lost in the Big XII title game.  I don't like it, but I get the prediction).  But nobody has us in the Fiesta Bowl.  We are all painfully familiar with the CFP process.  What I don't really know is how the NY6 process works after that (other than the auto conference champ bids who aren't in the CFP to preserve legacies like SEC or Big XII to Sugar, Pac-12 to Rose, ACC/Notre Dame to Orange.  I get that shit).  

Reason being is we've never been in this position since it all began in 2014.  And 11-2 Texas is still going to be invited to a nY6 game.  Probably Sugar, but how do they decide beyond that?  Legit question, I'll hang up and listen.  

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Player

Player 4575

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Lol I can't believe anyone wouldn't want us to make the CFP and have a crack at Bama and a national title. Once you're in the dance, who knows what could happen? We're Texas, dream big.


No shit.

As a noted scholar once said:

To be the man, you gotta beat the man.

Wooooo!
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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5915

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6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I guess that's a strong possibility.  And again, this is just going by pundit talk---but there are a dozen sites that have us in the Peach Bowl (having lost in the Big XII title game.  I don't like it, but I get the prediction).  But nobody has us in the Fiesta Bowl.  We are all painfully familiar with the CFP process.  What I don't really know is how the NY6 process works after that (other than the auto conference champ bids who aren't in the CFP to preserve legacies like SEC or Big XII to Sugar, Pac-12 to Rose, ACC/Notre Dame to Orange.  I get that shit).  

Reason being is we've never been in this position since it all began in 2014.  And 11-2 Texas is still going to be invited to a nY6 game.  Probably Sugar, but how do they decide beyond that?  Legit question, I'll hang up and listen.  

We're using logic but when it comes down to it, the bowls are run by $$$ so it's anybodys guess how this all pans out.  Given this though, I'd think Texas has a shot at anything if they handle their business.  As far as matchups go, Herman does well against top teams so he's got a punchers chance should Texas get into a premiere bowl.  

And as far as the Big 12 championship goes, beating OU twice in a season would do well to instill confidence and buy in from our players, parents, fans and only helps recruiting.  I know this isn't mind bending but simply put, beat OU twice in the same season and sell recruits on Herman owning blowu, which tarnishes Riley nationally and puts pressure on him from OU fans and boosters.  

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5915

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Whatever the case for the bowls, we're spending lottery money before the drawing.  It's fun going through the scenarios but Texas still has 5 games left.  Really fun getting to dream though at the midpoint for a change.  

Edited by Mdhorn
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ousux

ousux 5588

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This. I know I’m still shell shocked by the last 10 years but we are a few plays away from being 4-3 or even 3-4. 
Tbh...a lot of teams (including some above us in the rankings) could say the same. Bama is really the only team blowing their opponents out of the stadium this year.
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gmr548

gmr548 16533

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7 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Okay, so that means Peach Bowl picks before Fiesta this year?  or?...

Googling this, it looks like the committee decides the Cotton/Fiesta/Peach since they don't have tie-ins.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bids_to_college_bowl_games#2018_"New_Year's_Six"_bowl_games

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2016/10/24/_131504730172490753.aspx

 

Edit: Just realized I provided sources for last year's selection, but I would imagine the process is the same but just applies to the Fiesta/Peach since the Cotton is a semifinal. Basically, in that 11-2 scenario with the B12 champ in the Sugar Bowl, we would go wherever the committee thinks is going to get the best ratings.

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Guest Lobo

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Thanks, so I guess it's really just the CFP group who says 11-2 Texas (assuming we're not Sugar Bowl bound) can go to either Peach, Fiesta, or even still Sugar (if OKL or WVU went to CFP land).  I would think then that Sugar notwithstanding, Fiesta would be the landing spot.  Obviously lots of ground yet to cover, just starting to entertain ways to get the fuck outta town around the holidays to avoid family other than wife and child.  

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Treefidy

Treefidy 1463

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12 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I guess that's a strong possibility.  And again, this is just going by pundit talk---but there are a dozen sites that have us in the Peach Bowl (having lost in the Big XII title game.  I don't like it, but I get the prediction).  But nobody has us in the Fiesta Bowl.  We are all painfully familiar with the CFP process.  What I don't really know is how the NY6 process works after that (other than the auto conference champ bids who aren't in the CFP to preserve legacies like SEC or Big XII to Sugar, Pac-12 to Rose, ACC/Notre Dame to Orange.  I get that shit).  

Reason being is we've never been in this position since it all began in 2014.  And 11-2 Texas is still going to be invited to a nY6 game.  Probably Sugar, but how do they decide beyond that?  Legit question, I'll hang up and listen.  

Pretty sure the scenario is OU drops one but wins CCG or wins out and gets passed over, they go to Sugar as B12 rep.  An 11-2 Texas will be a big catch for an at large and the first NY6 choosing an at-large will jump at the opportunity.  

Peach bowl doesn't have tie-ins and guessi g they start the selection order for 2018/19, thus predictions for UT to peach?

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gmr548

gmr548 16533

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3 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Thanks, so I guess it's really just the CFP group who says 11-2 Texas (assuming we're not Sugar Bowl bound) can go to either Peach, Fiesta, or even still Sugar (if OKL or WVU went to CFP land).  I would think then that Sugar notwithstanding, Fiesta would be the landing spot.  Obviously lots of ground yet to cover, just starting to entertain ways to get the fuck outta town around the holidays to avoid family other than wife and child.  

Sugar is a conference contract. If Texas loses the CCG and the champion goes to the playoffs, Texas takes the B12 slot in the Sugar Bowl. Beyond that, yeah, committee (ESPN) is in charge of picking at larges and assigning matchups.

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Guest Lobo

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Agreed, but if a 10-2  opponent of ours in Arlington (WVU or OKL) comes in and beats an 11-1 Texas team, that team goes to the Sugar Bowl, not us and none of goes to the CFP.  In that case, now that I'm reading what y'all posted above---looks like Peach Bowl has first grab of all "at-large" teams, they'd be foolish to pass on us and throw us in with a 10-2/11-2 SEC team.  Which will obviously be A&M, at which point we forfeit out of fear of "Daddy" or whatever they think we call them.  

I dunno, fun to have good bowl games to ponder this time of year.  I strongly suspect that at 11:00p on 17 November, we'll know a very binary outcome.  At that point, we're either headed to Big XII title game, or the Alamo Bowl.  And we should know that if we win that game, if we're headed to Sugar or CFP.  With loss being Sugar, Peach, or Alamo as well.  

A few weeks ago, I was honestly curious if the Texas Bowl would be willing to take us three times in a row at 6-6.  

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Guest Lobo

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Yeah, you're right.  That was fucked up.  I didn't care at the time because we had just lost to Kansas and I had accidentally burned my bowl selection chart and shoved the ashes up a feral cat's ass in my neighborhood.  They shouldn't have even been in the NY6 mix, let alone get a sweet Sugar Bowl berth.  But that's the fucking CFP/NY6/ESPN/SEC bullshit for you I guess.  I am not banking on treatment like that.  I guess we could conceivably lose once more, still get into Big XII title game with tie-breaker, lose that game, and be 10-3 overall and still be attractive enough for Sugar/Peach berth.

But that's fucked up 8-4 Auburn getting to go having nothing to do with the SEC title game even.  

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Treefidy

Treefidy 1463

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GMR is apparently right, selection committee picks the at-larges.   So a bunch of assholes fill the bowl slots, the bowls don't get to choose.  Not really sure if this is better or worse.

man, just make the playoffs every year and we get to go on a tour of the different bowls.  Easy solution.  

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Chad

Chad 1728

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2 hours ago, Bash Riprock said:

Valero Alamo Bowl

Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
Dec. 28, 9 p.m. (ESPN)

Bonagura: Washington vs. West Virginia
Sherman: Texas Tech vs. Washington State

That would be the best bowl game ever! Leach would go for 100 points if it were possible. You know damn well he's still pissed about how things went down with his dismissal.

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5915

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not that any of this matters but....

back to our usual stomping grounds: 

Valero Alamo Bowl

Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
Dec. 28, 9 p.m. (ESPN)

Bonagura: Washington vs. Texas
Sherman: Texas vs. Washington


Think Texas can still do better than this bowl but they'll need to take care of business.  Although I like the Horns' chances, I also think there's a big chance for a mud hole if Herman brings a team that starts slow.  On the plus, it's less time between their last game and a bowl and Herman is know to prepare for big games.  Another minus, Petersen is pretty good and probably better when given a month to prepare.  

 

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Guest Lobo

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If we can manage not to lose any more regular season games, but lost the Big XII Championship...I think the Peach or Fiesta at 10-3 is a strong possibility.  Didn't think that way before, but with more teams getting upset, it's obvious a 3-loss team will be invited to the NY6 games (Not CFP!).  

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5915

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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25176855/college-football-bowl-projections-week-10

Same as last week:

Valero Alamo Bowl

Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
Dec. 28, 9 p.m. (ESPN)

Bonagura: Washington vs. Texas
Sherman: Texas vs. Washington

 

side note, who wouldn't want to see this?

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual

Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
Jan. 1, 5 p.m. (ESPN)

Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Washington State
Sherman: Ohio State vs. Washington State

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Guest Lobo

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If we were to finish out at 9-3, but not make Big XII game due to WVU/OKL likely headed for a rematch, I am realistically seeing a pickup by the NY6 "leftovers" and still going Peach or Fiesta.  Too many 1 & 2-loss teams are falling by the wayside as of late.  And a finish at Tech and ISU is decent enough to move up a tick or two in the polls.  Plus it all comes down to draw with those folks.  At 9-3, I'd say 50/50 between Peach/Fiesta and-or Alamo.  We drop one more, which is a distinct possibility, and it's Alamo and-or CampingWorld because a 3-loss WVU (losing to OU and again in Arlington) ain't gonna get a Peach/Fiesta bid, so it'll be Alamo for them, dropping us down one.  Now a 3-loss Oklahoma team (@WVU and again in Arlington)...that presents a conundrum for selection folks.  

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taybo20

taybo20 2815

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On 11/4/2018 at 8:05 PM, Lobo said:

If we were to finish out at 9-3, but not make Big XII game due to WVU/OKL likely headed for a rematch, I am realistically seeing a pickup by the NY6 "leftovers" and still going Peach or Fiesta.  Too many 1 & 2-loss teams are falling by the wayside as of late.  And a finish at Tech and ISU is decent enough to move up a tick or two in the polls.  Plus it all comes down to draw with those folks.  At 9-3, I'd say 50/50 between Peach/Fiesta and-or Alamo.  We drop one more, which is a distinct possibility, and it's Alamo and-or CampingWorld because a 3-loss WVU (losing to OU and again in Arlington) ain't gonna get a Peach/Fiesta bid, so it'll be Alamo for them, dropping us down one.  Now a 3-loss Oklahoma team (@WVU and again in Arlington)...that presents a conundrum for selection folks.  

Thing is that’s not necessarily true. If WVU doesn’t get into a NY6, then bowl tie ins select from any of the eligible bowl teams on a first come first serve basis based on their own order of selection. Alamo gets the first choice, and they would be stupid to not take Texas purely for monetary reasons. 

Quote

Once the CFP has filled its bowl slots, Big 12 bowl partners will make selections from the remaining bowl eligible teams. Following is the order of selection. A bowl may pick from any available teams when it reaches its spot in the selection order. 
Valero Alamo 
Camping World 
Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl 
AutoZone Liberty 
Cactus 
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces

 

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5915

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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25244994/college-football-bowl-projections-week-11

This would be exciting--make it happen, for either scenarios: 

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl

NRG Stadium, Houston
Dec. 27, 9 p.m. (ESPN)

Bonagura: Texas A&M vs. Texas Tech
Sherman: Auburn vs. Texas Tech

 

Otherwise:

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee
Dec. 31, 3:45 p.m. (ESPN)

Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Oklahoma State
Sherman: Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State

 

another must see would be LSU vs WV which we could learn a lot from:

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Dec. 29, noon (ESPN)

Bonagura: LSU vs. UCF
Sherman: LSU vs. West Virginia

 

Looks like Alamo Bowl is Texas or bust but don't want Texas vs Utah and not just because it's two UTs: 

Valero Alamo Bowl

Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
Dec. 28, 9 p.m. (ESPN)

Bonagura: Utah vs. Texas
Sherman: Texas vs. Washington

Edited by Mdhorn
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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5915

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and SI bowl projection as reported above:

 

Allstate Sugar Bowl, New Orleans (Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)
SEC vs. Big 12
Georgia vs. West Virginia

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Ariz. (Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN)
At-large vs. At-large
Texas vs. UCF

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Atlanta (Dec. 29, Noon ET, ESPN)
At-large vs. At-large
Oklahoma vs. LSU

 

Who you gonna pick bowl?  Neither.  

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl, Houston (Dec. 27, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Big 12 vs. SEC
Baylor vs. Texas A&M

 

https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/11/11/bowl-projections-week-11-tie-ins-schedule

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89Horn

89Horn 1494

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10 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl, Houston (Dec. 27, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Big 12 vs. SEC
Baylor vs. Texas A&M

“No, no, no, no.  Texas A&M will not be matched with a Big 12 team in a bowl. No, no, no, n-, wait, did you say Baylor?  Ok, maybe.”

-  SEC officials

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4981

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If we win out a NY6 bowl is pretty likely...

playoffs - Bama, Clemson, ND, UM 

Rose - WSU v tOSU

Sugar - OU v UGA

Orange - Syracuse/BC v ?

At large - ? v ?

UCF and LSU would get in and that leaves one more spot likely be between a bunch of 3 loss team (WVU, Florida, PSU, Washington/Utah if either can beat WSU) all of which we’re currently ahead of except West Virginia/Florida but I don’t see them giving the nod to WVU if they lose their last two games in a row when we’d have the same record nor do I see them giving the SEC a 4th bid by giving UF a spot.

I think UCF gets paired with the ACC teams and they have LSU playing Texas in the Feista.

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