Updated Bowl Projections per ESPN

[satyanash 14,282]

14 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Actually, winning is the only guarantee. It's entirely possible the committee jumps Ohio State over Oklahoma if both win, which would give the Sugar Bowl bid to the Sooners.

Wow. So, paradoxically, it would actually be better for our Sugar Bowl chances to get thrashed by blOU (helping their playoff case) than to lose to them by a close margin? That's ridiculous.

[Huckleberry 32,710]

Agree with all of you but that's where we are.

[mdmost 42,876]

 

[mdleast 8,281]

I find it hard to believe Ohio St would leapfrog ousux if both teams won.  I think the only way we don't make the Sugar Bowl is if UGA beats Bama.

If UGA beats Bama, I’ve heard the talking heads speculate that both of them would be in, along with Clemson (assuming they win) plus ND...so this all makes for some interesting “rooting” (or not) from us Horns on Saturday if we happen to lose.

[mdleast 8,281]

Here’s another variant that I’ve wondered about:

[mdleast 8,281]

So what’s crazy about all of this is...if we happen to lose to OU, what do we want?

I NEVER want OU to advance to the playoffs. HOWEVER, my Horns playing in the Sugar Bowl sounds pretty fucking badass right about now.

But I can’t have both...

[runthebone 7,933]

Beating ou sucks is always the right answer.  

[S11 16]

6 minutes ago, mdleast said:

Here’s another variant that I’ve wondered about:

At no point in the playoff era has a P5 champ been jumped by a non-champ with the same number of losses.   I can see a small chance with Bama but not UGA.

[billfromlaketravis 11,367]

8 minutes ago, mdleast said:

So what’s crazy about all of this is...if we happen to lose to OU, what do we want?

I NEVER want OU to advance to the playoffs. HOWEVER, my Horns playing in the Sugar Bowl sounds pretty fucking badass right about now.

But I can’t have both...

The Big 12 is contractually obligated to send their conference champion to the Sugar Bowl UNLESS the champion is selected for the playoffs. 

Per Alex Loeb's conversation with Big 12 officials, the conference champion or the runner up will be selected for the Sugar Bowl. 

Huckleberry's scenario is the only plausible one where Texas wouldn't play in the Sugar Bowl.

Texas loses to OU, tOSU beats Northwestern and jumps OU in the CFB Rankings. This would send OU to the Sugar Bowl, and Texas would probably drop to the Alamo Bowl. 

Again, why leave it to chance? Just beat that Sooner ass. 

Edited November 28, 2018 by billfromlaketravis

[Tex Pete 20,196]

11 minutes ago, mdleast said:

So what’s crazy about all of this is...if we happen to lose to OU, what do we want?

I NEVER want OU to advance to the playoffs. HOWEVER, my Horns playing in the Sugar Bowl sounds pretty fucking badass right about now.

But I can’t have both...

Beat OU and hope their entire team catches Ebola and dies before the playoff. 

[jinx 2,635]

17 minutes ago, mdleast said:

Here’s another variant that I’ve wondered about:

So we would just watch a rematch of a game we just saw?   That makes no damn sense at all, so it is probably what will happen.  

[Tex Pete 20,196]

Just now, jinx said:

So we would just watch a rematch of a game we just saw?   That makes no damn sense at all, so it is probably what will happen.  

Are you new to watching the special treatment the SEC gets?

[billfromlaketravis 11,367]

Just now, jinx said:

So we would just watch a rematch of a game we just saw?   That makes no damn sense at all, so it is probably what will happen.  

I agree. If Georgia beats Bama, I guarantee they'll jump to at least No. 3. 

[zork 629]

1 minute ago, jinx said:

So we would just watch a rematch of a game we just saw?   That makes no damn sense at all, so it is probably what will happen.  

I wouldn't be watching that is for sure.

[runthebone 7,933]

4 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

Beat OU and hope their entire team catches Ebola and dies before the playoff. 

That doesn't seem fair.  To the ebola virus. 

[Zavala 1,384]

20 minutes ago, S11 said:

At no point in the playoff era has a P5 champ been jumped by a non-champ with the same number of losses.   I can see a small chance with Bama but not UGA.

Bama is guaranteed in. Every season. It's the Bama invitational. 

[mdleast 8,281]

I agree. If Georgia beats Bama, I guarantee they'll jump to at least No. 3. 

Yes in that scenario the thinking would be they would rig the rankings so we are not watching an immediate rematch between Bama and Georgia.

[S11 16]

14 minutes ago, Zavala said:

Bama is guaranteed in. Every season. It's the Bama invitational. 

Disagree.  Each year they either made a slam dunk case or the other contenders didn’t have the resume to get in.

2014- 1 Loss to Ole Miss by 6. SEC champ who beat solid WV in noncon

2015- 1 Loss to Ole Miss by 6. SEC champ who beat Wisconsin in noncon

2016- Unbeaten SEC champs who dominated USC in noncon.  Didn’t lose until title game.

2017- Only controversial year.  Unbeaten until Iron Bowl and didn’t win SEC.  Only got in as the other teams with arguments were unbeaten G5 UCF who didn’t have nearly the same schedule and two-loss champs USC and Ohio state.  Buckeyes lost by 31 and 15.  Trojans lost by 35 and 3.   Given Bama lost by 12 it’s not crazy to see why they got in.   If either of the other two had been one loss champs without 20+ margin losses Bama likely is left out.

 

 

Edited November 28, 2018 by S11

[Zavala 1,384]

4 minutes ago, mdleast said:

 

Yes in that scenario the thinking would be they would rig the rankings so we are not watching an immediate rematch between Bama and Georgia.

 

Yup. Then have a repeat NCG between two sec teams. Then at the end Saban says again: how bout that what a game!

Profits are paramount. 

But I think bammer beats jawgia this weekend.

[Zavala 1,384]

6 minutes ago, S11 said:

Disagree.  Each year they either made a slam dunk case or the other contenders didn’t have the resume to get in.

2014- 1 Loss to Ole Miss by 6. SEC champ who beat solid WV in noncon

2015- 1 Loss to Ole Miss by 6. SEC champ who beat Wisconsin in noncon

2016- Unbeaten SEC champs who dominated USC in noncon.  Didn’t lose until title game.

2017- Only controversial year.  Unbeaten until Iron Bowl and didn’t win SEC.  Only got in as the other teams with arguments were unbeaten G5 UCF who didn’t have nearly the same schedule and two-loss champs USC and Ohio state.  Buckeyes lost by 31 and 15.  Trojans lost by 35 and 3.   Given Bama lost by 12 it’s not crazy to see why they got in.   If either of the other two had been one loss champs without 20+ margin losses Bama likely is left out.

 

Right on. I just think it's hilarious the big12 goes with the 9 game round Robin schedule AND rematch the top team in CCG. 13 data points. For what? Bammer didnt go to their CCG and they got in.

Toughest road to the playoffs is now the most impossible road to the playoffs, because the big12 gets no respect and the top teams are forced into a rematch. The talking heads are so silly with their "no defense" league. Look at the fucking QBs and WRs in this league, insane.

Imagine if blowU beat us this year, and in this rematch game we beat them. Forget it, they wouldn't get in. 

Edited November 28, 2018 by Zavala

[S11 16]

6 minutes ago, Zavala said:

 

Right on. I just think it's hilarious the big12 goes with the 9 game round Robin schedule AND rematch the top team in CCG. 13 data points. For what? Bammer didnt go to their CCG and they got in.

Toughest road to the playoffs is now the most impossible road to the playoffs, because the big12 gets no respect and the top teams are forced into a rematch. The talking heads are so silly with their "no defense" league. Look at the fucking QBs and WRs in this league, insane.

Imagine if blowU beat us this year, and in this rematch game we beat them. Forget it, they wouldn't get in. 

1- Bammer only got in as a one loss non-champ due to USC and tOSU getting deliverance’d in one loss and losing again.

2- The Big 12 CCG is purely a money grab that they hope helps in a year where 5 quality options emerged from the P5 leagues + ND + BYU (who plays a strong enough SOS to merit consideration)  

3-  The fact it’s so hard is one reason expansion is a good idea at the next contract with or without P5 options.

 

The Playoff is going to expand to 6 or 8.   Making the playoff here will be easier than in some superconference and will offset any lost revenue from league expansion.   Expand to 12, get 8 league games, and go wreck stuff in the playoff.

Edited November 28, 2018 by S11

[C-Man 27,083]

At no point in the playoff era has a P5 champ been jumped by a non-champ with the same number of losses.   I can see a small chance with Bama but not UGA.

In this case, Georgia would have two losses and OU would only have one.

[S11 16]

2 minutes ago, C-Man said:

 

In this case, Georgia would have two losses and OU would only have one.

 

Exactly my point- if UGA loses and OU wins I expect UGA wont qualify

[C-Man 27,083]

Hell, I think if Bama loses Sat they should be out. It’ll never happen but the SEC damn sure doesn’t deserve two teams getting in this year.

[S11 16]

2 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Hell, I think if Bama loses Sat they should be out. It’ll never happen but the SEC damn sure doesn’t deserve two teams getting in this year.

I’ll be shocked if UGA survives losing to Bama and gets in.

 

ill be mildly surprised if Bama does.

 

i think it would require OU and Ohio State losing.

[C-Man 27,083]

I’ll be shocked if UGA survives losing to Bama and gets in.
 
ill be mildly surprised if Bama does.
 
i think it would require OU and Ohio State losing.

UGA is not getting in if they lose Sat. Period. Over and done with. Because you can’t move UGA up if they lose and there will be a riot if they were to immediately play again in the semifinal.

What I mean is if Georgia somehow beats Bama, I don’t think either has done enough to warrant two teams from SEC getting in. UGA would be in, Bama should be out — but they won’t be.

[Zavala 1,384]

4 minutes ago, S11 said:

I’ll be shocked if UGA survives losing to Bama and gets in.

 

ill be mildly surprised if Bama does.

 

i think it would require OU and Ohio State losing.

No way. Alabama is in, guarenteed. If their one loss will come against "number 3 ranked" Georgia in a neutral site by less than 14, it's a rematch in the NCG.

[S11 16]

Just now, Zavala said:

No way. Alabama is in, guarenteed. If their one loss will come against "number 3 ranked" Georgia in a neutral site by less than 14, it's a rematch in the NCG.

I simply disagree.  The committee is supposed to weight conference championships as part of the criteria.   The next time they don’t for a team without one that doesn’t have fewer losses than the team jumping them will be the first time. 

[Zavala 1,384]

7 minutes ago, S11 said:

I simply disagree.  The committee is supposed to weight conference championships as part of the criteria.   The next time they don’t for a team without one that doesn’t have fewer losses than the team jumping them will be the first time. 

They pick whatever rankings will produce the most money. The committee ranked all ACC teams on average 16 places higher than they were ranked in regular poles earlier this season when Joel Klatt did some statistical analysis. They may not have had the top 10 screwed up, but at one point NC State, Virginia, and Boston college were ranked, they had BC and NC St. in the top 20. They now have Michigan at 7 after getting exposed and embarrassed by Ohio State. Guess anyone can have a number 1 defense when you play the 80th-120th passing teams for 6 strait weeks. 

Anyway, the committee sucks. They should go back to the computer/AP poll.

[C-Man 27,083]

35 minutes ago, S11 said:

I simply disagree.  The committee is supposed to weight conference championships as part of the criteria.   The next time they don’t for a team without one that doesn’t have fewer losses than the team jumping them will be the first time. 

It's far too late to try and decipher that sentence. Not exactly sure what you're saying. Bama got in last year without even PLAYING in the SEC Championship Game.

[Valmy77 13,125]

11 minutes ago, C-Man said:

It's far too late to try and decipher that sentence. Not exactly sure what you're saying. Bama got in last year without even PLAYING in the SEC Championship Game.

Yeah. That was so frustrating. I knew we were all celebrating to early when Auburn beat them.

[gecko 1,104]

We do remember them keeping out tOSU out last season despite having a better resume than Bama right?  I mean sure they had a bad loss to a decent Iowa team, but they also had much better wins, a better overall record, and a Conference Championship and still kept them out in favor of Bama who didn't deserve the spot last season(despite winning the title).

This is why OSU’s ticket is already all but punched....

[Doc Sam Beckett 5,785]

7 hours ago, S11 said:

Disagree.  Each year they either made a slam dunk case or the other contenders didn’t have the resume to get in.

2014- 1 Loss to Ole Miss by 6. SEC champ who beat solid WV in noncon

2015- 1 Loss to Ole Miss by 6. SEC champ who beat Wisconsin in noncon

2016- Unbeaten SEC champs who dominated USC in noncon.  Didn’t lose until title game.

2017- Only controversial year.  Unbeaten until Iron Bowl and didn’t win SEC.  Only got in as the other teams with arguments were unbeaten G5 UCF who didn’t have nearly the same schedule and two-loss champs USC and Ohio state.  Buckeyes lost by 31 and 15.  Trojans lost by 35 and 3.   Given Bama lost by 12 it’s not crazy to see why they got in.   If either of the other two had been one loss champs without 20+ margin losses Bama likely is left out.

 

 

 

I don't know why this is so hard for everyone to understand. Yes, the committee will bend the criteria to fit Bama in as much as they possibly can, but....

12-1 conference champ Oklahoma or Ohio State is not being left out for 12-1 conference runner up Bama, when the team that beat them is already in... 

Besides nobody else having a decent claim last year, many things went right for Bama to get in. Had Wisconsin won, Bama would have been left out. Bama also didn't play Georgia last year, so there wasn't this issue of an immediate possible rematch. 

The only way we get two secsecsec teams this year is if both Ohio State and Oklahoma lose. 

[S11 16]

7 hours ago, C-Man said:

It's far too late to try and decipher that sentence. Not exactly sure what you're saying. Bama got in last year without even PLAYING in the SEC Championship Game.

They got in against a champion with more losses than them.

 

this year would be a champ with the same record and THIS has yet to happen.

[Chuckie Finster 22,610]

18 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

 

I don't know why this is so hard for everyone to understand. Yes, the committee will bend the criteria to fit Bama in as much as they possibly can, but....

12-1 conference champ Oklahoma or Ohio State is not being left out for 12-1 conference runner up Bama, when the team that beat them is already in... 

 Besides nobody else having a decent claim last year, many things went right for Bama to get in. Had Wisconsin won, Bama would have been left out. Bama also didn't play Georgia last year, so there wasn't this issue of an immediate possible rematch. 

The only way we get two secsecsec teams this year is if both Ohio State and Oklahoma lose. 

Bama has won every game this year by 20+ points.  They've been the best team BY A LOT over the first 12 weeks.  They're getting in, even with a loss.

[Barry_McCokiner 160]

Who would settle for the Alamo bowl of t means ou doesn’t make the playoffs?

[S11 16]

8 minutes ago, Barry_McCokiner said:

Who would settle for the Alamo bowl of t means ou doesn’t make the playoffs?

Likely matchup against the Pirate or whoever loses Utah/Washington.

 

sugar matches up vs Florida.

 

no bad matchups imo

[Bevo14 8,275]

12 minutes ago, S11 said:

Likely matchup against the Pirate or whoever loses Utah/Washington.

 

sugar matches up vs Florida.

 

no bad matchups imo

Eh I'd rather play Florida. All three of those teams are better than Florida and we'd get no credit if we won.

Edited November 28, 2018 by Bevo14

[6th Street 6,358]

UGA-Texas will crush it in the ratings. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

9 hours ago, C-Man said:

 

In this case, Georgia would have two losses and OU would only have one.

 

But OU doesn't play in the SEC. So, advantage Georgia.

[S11 16]

38 minutes ago, S11 said:

Likely matchup against the Pirate or whoever loses Utah/Washington.

 

sugar matches up vs Florida.

 

no bad matchups imo

UF is the worst case.

probably gonna be Bama/UGA loser assuming the don’t make the playoff

Edited November 28, 2018 by S11

[Zepol87 9,172]

Damn that will be an expensive ticket

[A’Dam Psycho 1,469]

Ok I’m a novice when it comes to this whole bowl selection process but say OUsux barely wins and gets jumped by tOSU, couldn’t we still get an at large to the Fiesta or Peach? 

[S11 16]

2 minutes ago, A’Dam Psycho said:

Ok I’m a novice when it comes to this whole bowl selection process but say OUsux barely wins and gets jumped by tOSU, couldn’t we still get an at large to the Fiesta or Peach? 

Probably not.  UT is 14th and won’t sniff the top ten with a loss.  Probably need to be that high to get in

[Mother mopar 3,305]

You're wrong, OU isnt going to win.

 

 

[Orange&White 5,516]

16 minutes ago, Mother mopar said:

You're wrong, OU isnt going to win.

 

 

Fucking THIS!

 

Some of you need to check your vaginas.

[ShowmeyourTDs 1,140]

1 hour ago, Mother mopar said:

You're wrong, OU isnt going to win.

 

 

[Huckleberry 32,710]

Four SEC teams in the NY6.

[HenryJames 65,914]

Is that a lot?

[Hiphopopotamos 20,865]

7 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Four SEC teams in the NY6.

Best part of this tweet is seeing all of the Kentucky & Florida fans argue about who had the shittier loss.

They both suck.