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So let's talk about the Baylor game

South Austin

By South Austin
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Mileslong

Mileslong 4728

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Posted

It’s been 17 games since Texas has had a 100 yard rusher. The last time was Warren against San Jose. That’s unacceptable, they need to change that this week and run Ingram down their throats. However I see constant alternating at RB continuing which makes it difficult for any back to get 100.

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Farkimedes

Farkimedes 23

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The more I've thought about this game the more nervous I get. UT won't go turnover~less forever, and the offense is due for one of those games where Sam tosses a pick + the ball gets put on the ground twice and by bad luck the defense picks it up. Turnovers, ( fumbles especially ) as one of those things that tends to revert back to the mean "suddenly", as in you might go 4 games without putting the ball on the ground, then have one game where you do it 4 times. 

Baylor's linebackers are so bad that it just might keeping them from being able to compete at all, and that is certainly the most likely outcome here. Their front 7 couldn't hold up against Duke so I don't think they can hold up tomorrow. The most likely result is UT just breaking off ~5 big plays and pulling away late as they have to abandon the run game and the defense can T off on the pass.

I also think there is a real chance (~33%) Baylor goes +2 in turnovers and we are shitting bricks on Saturday with a one score game with 5 minutes left.

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Cuernavaca

Cuernavaca 254

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8 minutes ago, Farkimedes said:

The more I've thought about this game the more nervous I get. UT won't go turnover~less forever, and the offense is due for one of those games where Sam tosses a pick + the ball gets put on the ground twice and by bad luck the defense picks it up. Turnovers, ( fumbles especially ) as one of those things that tends to revert back to the mean "suddenly", as in you might go 4 games without putting the ball on the ground, then have one game where you do it 4 times. 

Baylor's linebackers are so bad that it just might keeping them from being able to compete at all, and that is certainly the most likely outcome here. Their front 7 couldn't hold up against Duke so I don't think they can hold up tomorrow. The most likely result is UT just breaking off ~5 big plays and pulling away late as they have to abandon the run game and the defense can T off on the pass.

I also think there is a real chance (~33%) Baylor goes +2 in turnovers and we are shitting bricks on Saturday with a one score game with 5 minutes left.

You sound like a pussy

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dad

dad 557

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Farkimedes said:

The more I've thought about this game the more nervous I get. UT won't go turnover~less forever, and the offense is due for one of those games where Sam tosses a pick + the ball gets put on the ground twice and by bad luck the defense picks it up. Turnovers, ( fumbles especially ) as one of those things that tends to revert back to the mean "suddenly", as in you might go 4 games without putting the ball on the ground, then have one game where you do it 4 times. 

Baylor's linebackers are so bad that it just might keeping them from being able to compete at all, and that is certainly the most likely outcome here. Their front 7 couldn't hold up against Duke so I don't think they can hold up tomorrow. The most likely result is UT just breaking off ~5 big plays and pulling away late as they have to abandon the run game and the defense can T off on the pass.

I also think there is a real chance (~33%) Baylor goes +2 in turnovers and we are shitting bricks on Saturday with a one score game with 5 minutes left.

Get a grip dude jesus christ. 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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13 minutes ago, Farkimedes said:

The more I've thought about this game the more nervous I get. UT won't go turnover~less forever, and the offense is due for one of those games where Sam tosses a pick + the ball gets put on the ground twice and by bad luck the defense picks it up. Turnovers, ( fumbles especially ) as one of those things that tends to revert back to the mean "suddenly", as in you might go 4 games without putting the ball on the ground, then have one game where you do it 4 times. 

Baylor's linebackers are so bad that it just might keeping them from being able to compete at all, and that is certainly the most likely outcome here. Their front 7 couldn't hold up against Duke so I don't think they can hold up tomorrow. The most likely result is UT just breaking off ~5 big plays and pulling away late as they have to abandon the run game and the defense can T off on the pass.

I also think there is a real chance (~33%) Baylor goes +2 in turnovers and we are shitting bricks on Saturday with a one score game with 5 minutes left.

So basically Texas can lose if the boys don't bring their C-game.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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6 minutes ago, Farkimedes said:

You know S&P+ has this as a 10 point game right? 37 - 27? 

Sagarin's predictor has the Horns as a 13.5 pt favorite.  Texas at 83.6 and Baylor at 70.1.

Using the recent metric that weights results, Tex is at 88.6, a full 5 pts stronger.  That's how much the MD loss hurts us.

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Farkimedes

Farkimedes 23

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5 minutes ago, dad said:

No but now I do. I disagree with the spread. Our defense is going to stop that offense.

And this is where I disagree, I think it's the other way round. S&P+ has their offense at 22 overall, but their defense is an abysmal 107 ( again, the linebackers for them are walk on quality ). The UT defense hasn't shown me anything this year to make me think Baylor is going to be held under the mid~20s. For this to be a 2 TD+ spanking, Texas is gonna need to get into the 40s. I think they can pretty easily do that, and that's most likely what will happen! 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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8 minutes ago, Farkimedes said:

And this is where I disagree, I think it's the other way round. S&P+ has their offense at 22 overall, but their defense is an abysmal 107 ( again, the linebackers for them are walk on quality ). The UT defense hasn't shown me anything this year to make me think Baylor is going to be held under the mid~20s. For this to be a 2 TD+ spanking, Texas is gonna need to get into the 40s. I think they can pretty easily do that, and that's most likely what will happen! 

Baylor's offense can look impressive when it executes but often it fails to execute.  4 INTs is not bad 6 games into the season but they get sacked and cough up the ball frequently.  They've just been fortunate to get so many of them back.  Also they commit a lot of penalties. 

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El Squared

El Squared 1802

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Despite the holding calls in the second half in gooner's favor (and lack of holds called on gooner), I would like an officiating crew like last week rather than the normal fockers we have been relegated to the past few years.

That is way too unreasonable, I know but hope springs eternal.

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satyanash

satyanash 14478

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So far this season has been the tale of two UTs. One UT demolished USC, demolished TCU, ran up 19 unanswered against K-State, took a 21-point lead against Tulsa, and blew out blOU 45-24 through 3 quarters.

The other UT has been 2017-esque. Lost to Maryland, gave up 21 in the second quarter against Tulsa, gave up 14 unanswered against K-State, and let blOU go on a 21-3 run in the 4th quarter. Hopefully we don't get the second UT tomorrow.

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El Diablo

El Diablo 4232

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11 minutes ago, El Squared said:

Despite the holding calls in the second half in gooner's favor (and lack of holds called on gooner), I would like an officiating crew like last week rather than the normal fockers we have been relegated to the past few years.

That is way too unreasonable, I know but hope springs eternal.

Interesting stat from last Baylor game was they only had TWO penalties and it was the previously perfect KSt team that had more penalty yards. Refs. Go figure.

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vox

vox 70

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3 hours ago, Uncle Nate said:

I just came here to say "Fuck Baylor".

UT better not let off the gas tomorrow.  Baylor needs to be destroyed completely.  UT needs to go in dry and then carve #MeToo on the forehead of each player and coach (ala swastikas on the foreheads of nazis in "Inglorious Bastards").

giphy.gif

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vox

vox 70

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Posted
1 hour ago, mchookem said:

shit, it's going to fucking rain right at game time tomorrow, isn't it?

of course it is, because i'm going to this one 😒

Yeah, looks like the forecast is shit.  How does that affect kick off?  As long as there's no lightning, we play, right?

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BearCon

BearCon 132

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11 hours ago, Vertigo said:

Texas fans give zero shits about Baylor, their run was a fart in the wind of college football. I think it netted them 1 1/2 B12 titles? Nobody is going to come watch that on Thanksgiving. 

Most Big12 Titles By Team:

Oklahoma - 11

Texas - 3

Baylor - 2

 

We are right on yalls heels. 

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Magus Ossis

Magus Ossis 2797

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7 hours ago, satyanash said:

So far this season has been the tale of two UTs. One UT demolished USC, demolished TCU, ran up 19 unanswered against K-State, took a 21-point lead against Tulsa, and blew out blOU 45-24 through 3 quarters.

The other UT has been 2017-esque. Lost to Maryland, gave up 21 in the second quarter against Tulsa, gave up 14 unanswered against K-State, and let blOU go on a 21-3 run in the 4th quarter. Hopefully we don't get the second UT tomorrow.

Dude, the preferred nomenclature is ‘#2 version.’

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Blanton

Blanton 170

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14 hours ago, Vertigo said:

Texas fans give zero shits about Baylor, their run was a fart in the wind of college football. I think it netted them 1 1/2 B12 titles? Nobody is going to come watch that on Thanksgiving. 

Come on, really?

They have one less conference championship than us...let that sink in.

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Machinator

Machinator 32099

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3 minutes ago, Blanton said:

Come on, really?

They have one less conference championship than us...let that sink in.

That speaks more to our ineptitude for most of this decade than anything, as well as Mack's failures in winning the conference when we had the most talented squads in the Big 12.

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Blanton

Blanton 170

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Just now, Machinator said:

That speaks more to our ineptitude for most of this decade than anything, as well as Mack's failures in winning the conference when we had the most talented squads in the Big 12.

Mack’s ass was on the line before 2004/2005. He squandered so much talent and got regularly raped by OU.

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Blanton

Blanton 170

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25 minutes ago, Mantis Toboggan, MD said:

 


They have one less Big 12 championship and dozens of more rapists. Fuck them.

 

Irrelevant. We play to win championships. 

Ehlinger era baby...here we go.

It takes a Westlake man to bring this program to new heights...

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