So let's talk about the Baylor game

[PencilPusher 454]

Perfect opponent to come off of the Red River Rivalry (other than OU's opponent - BYE)

Baylor does offense, but digging into the stats suggest they can be a lot of noise and fury, but not signify much. They rank reasonably high on efficiency, but not explosiveness, which is the complete opposite of OU. Get them behind the chains and their offense trends to below average. They are a surprisingly poor red zone team and of course give up lots of sack opportunities. Baylor is also -2 on turnover margin but actually picks up 2 pts on turnover luck per game because they should have given up more which means opportunities exist

Baylor's defense is bad and they only thing they actually statistically do well is red zone defense. Of course, the number of explosive plays given up sort of negates that. Forced 3 of their 5 total turnovers received in last weeks game which means they don't force turnovers and won't against a team that is good at taking care of the ball.  

Baylor is significantly better at punting, but that isn't saying much. Unfortunately we have given up points due to our punting in every game this year so expect that to continue this week. Their place kicker is about average for CFB which means that the placekicking game doesn't give them a big advantage. Nothing else special about their special teams which are in the bottom quartile (other than net punting).

Texas should win handily unless we go -4 or worse on turnovers or have 150+ penalty yards (or both). 

[LTtxfan 49148]

Six straight weeks of playing heading in to Baylor Game....Last 4 Games was a pretty tough & physical stretch (USC, TCU, KState, BlowU)

So Horns need to start strong in 1st quarter and rotate more players in earlier during Baylor Game to protect against injuries to starters due to being banged up and fatigue....

Winning Championships usually requires some easy large Wins during the season to both 1)develop backups and 2) preserve & protect starters to be fresh as the Season goes along.....🤘

Edited October 9, 2018 by LTtxfan

[CycleTex87 2967]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

you know you are truly back(i mean NC type back) when you start winning home games against middling conf teams by 25 to 30 points that are over by the end of the 3Q.  we have a few opportunities to do this this year.

This is incorrect.  In the VY era (and Bama ever since), games against any but the top one or two teams in the league are over for all intensive porpoises by midway through the second quarter, never mind halftime.  Third quarter is for subs to get some needed experience.  And then the subs beat them like a drum for a while.

Edited October 9, 2018 by CycleTex87

[sushihorn 3233]

10 minutes ago, CycleTex87 said:

This is incorrect.  In the VY era (and Bama ever since), games against any but the top one or two teams in the league are over for all intensive porpoises by midway through the second quarter, never mind halftime.  Third quarter is for subs to get some needed experience.  And then the subs beat them like a drum for a while.

Respectfully, memory is often a tricky thing.  In 2005 that NC squad was clinging to a 5 pt lead at Collie Station in the 4th quarter.  Pino hit an incredibly long FG to make it an 8 pt lead.  He made it a 2 score game with another FG at less than 3:00 on the clock.  VY had 19 net rushing yards that day.

Edited October 9, 2018 by sushihorn

[CycleTex87 2967]

2 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Respectfully, memory is often a tricky thing.  In 2005 that NC squad was clinging to a 5 pt lead at Collie Station in the 4th quarter.  Pino hit an incredibly long FG to make it an 8 pt lead.  He made it a 2 score game with another FG at less than 3:00 on the clock.  VY had 19 net rushing yards that day.

VY lost the Heisman in that game.  The aggy game tended to be close no matter what those years.

[Pato del Muerto 52487]

VY was also sick for that game, and was under orders not to run much because those fuckers can and will take cheap shots to ruin our season. 

The offense was opened up a little the following 2 games. 

[sushihorn 3233]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

VY was also sick for that game, and was under orders not to run much because those fuckers can and will take cheap shots to ruin our season. 

The offense was opened up a little the following 2 games. 

Those orders made me and biggie a bunch of money.  We flew into Vegas 2 days before the NC game then drove in early that morning.  One of the prop bets on the board at MGM was VY's rushing yardage in the game.  Some idiot had set the over / under at 47.5 yards.  Enough people had seen it and bet it to move the over to -125 by the time we caught it but we emptied our wallets on that one then went up to our room and scraped together every spare dollar we could find to bet that too.  Then we walked down the Strip telling everyone in Texas gear about that stupid line.  By the time we drove out the next morning the sports book had the over at -185.

The only thing I can think of is that the book makers looked at the aggy game and the conf CCG where VY hardly had to run when setting that line.  They obviously should have looked that the prior Rose Bowl instead and realized that USC's defense was not up to Michigan's standards.

[Machinator 32099]

 

[TexasMan 10891]

I am very fearful of the players starting to smell themselves, but the fact that I keep hearing about they are getting back to work and know their goals are not finished is very inspiring right now. 

[Machinator 32099]

 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

41 minutes ago, TexasMan said:

I am very fearful of the players starting to smell themselves, but the fact that I keep hearing about they are getting back to work and know their goals are not finished is very inspiring right now. 

I'm not in the least bit afraid of that. Shit we barely made a bowl last year. Did you hear we lost to Maryland? Twice? 

[Tex Pete 20339]

On 10/8/2018 at 8:40 PM, BearCon said:

If Baylor wins the turnover battle, I could see them Brett Kavanaugh'ing UT.

Fuck you. Take it to the cloak room. 

[UTEX_ME 4762]

11 hours ago, TexasMan said:

I am very fearful of the players starting to smell themselves, but the fact that I keep hearing about they are getting back to work and know their goals are not finished is very inspiring right now. 

A recent case of this was 2010 after beating Nebraska in Lincoln. Boy did they feel good about themselves. Then Iowa State happened, and we got the "scares you to death" quote.

[Extra Anejo 99]

There is no way that Baylor can beat the UT team that played OU last week. However, they could win against the UT team that played Maryland and Tulsa. I'm not concerned but I do get mental issues until the offense scores. I think this game is over by halftime.

[Horny Bull 2759]

The level of competition Baylor has faced thus far is not being talked about enough. It’s not like they’re racking up all these yards on even average defenses. 

[BigBenBamboozle 1952]

Is there an advanced metric tracking how long a team's defense has been on the field to this point of the season?  Maybe @Huckleberry, you would know?  I feel like our offense with its sustained drives this year has greatly improved on keeping the defense from tiring.  It was mentioned in the OU game about how much their defense had been on the field the prior three games. 

[El Diablo 4232]

The Baylor offense is a strange mix of the spread that Texas football players are accustomed to and the power running game that Rhule knows from his days at Temple. He doesn't have the personnel to run either well at this point and its production is inconsistent. Last year at one point despite their W/L record they were one of the most explosive teams in the country by the metrics that measure that quality. They still haven't established an offensive identity and it shows.

[Huckleberry 32850]

1 minute ago, BigBenBamboozle said:

Is there an advanced metric tracking how long a team's defense has been on the field to this point of the season?  Maybe @Huckleberry, you would know?  I feel like our offense with its sustained drives this year has greatly improved on keeping the defense from tiring.  It was mentioned in the OU game about how much their defense had been on the field the prior three games. 

That's just time of possession as far as tracked stats go. I understand what they were saying but I disagree that having been on the field 40 minutes two weeks ago affects this week's game aside from injuries. 10 minutes difference 14 days later isn't a big deal. 10 minutes difference during the current game is a big deal.

[BigBenBamboozle 1952]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

That's just time of possession as far as tracked stats go. I understand what they were saying but I disagree that having been on the field 40 minutes two weeks ago affects this week's game aside from injuries. 10 minutes difference 14 days later isn't a big deal. 10 minutes difference during the current game is a big deal.

I'm an idiot; of course it's the other team's time of possession.  Do you think our more balanced offense has aided in lack of injuries this year?  *knocks on wood*

[Machinator 32099]

 

[sushihorn 3233]

15 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

The Baylor offense is a strange mix of the spread that Texas football players are accustomed to and the power running game that Rhule knows from his days at Temple. He doesn't have the personnel to run either well at this point and its production is inconsistent. Last year at one point despite their W/L record they were one of the most explosive teams in the country by the metrics that measure that quality. They still haven't established an offensive identity and it shows.

They are pretty explosive in the passing game.  325 YPG passing - I think they're top 10 in the country in that stat.  They're also at 174 YPG on the ground.  That's also pretty good.

[Huckleberry 32850]

They are at #54 in the country in total rushing per carry and #68 in the country in total passing per attempt. Of course my stats take out the Abilene Christian game because I only use games against FBS opponents.

[Queen Bitch 1692]

On 10/8/2018 at 6:40 PM, BearCon said:

If Baylor wins the turnover battle, I could see them Brett Kavanaugh'ing UT.

Not surprised a Baylor grad would find BK-as-verb a fun, catchy phrase

[Machinator 32099]

Denzel Mims is a legit weapon on the outside for Baylor. He's in the discussion, along with Hollywood Brown, Jalen Reagor, and David Sills, as one of the best WRs we'll see in conference play.

[sushihorn 3233]

3 minutes ago, Machinator said:

Denzel Mims is a legit weapon on the outside for Baylor. He's in the discussion, along with Hollywood Brown, Jalen Reagor, and David Sills, as one of the best WRs we'll see in conference play.

Hasty is potentially a very dangerous runner.  And Charlie Brewer can buy time and convert with his running ability.  If Baylor scores some TDs they will likely do so on off schedule plays where Brewer scrambles around until he can find an open man.  Good thing they play behind a dog crap OL or they might actually be dangerous.

[Farkimedes 23]

 

27 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

The Baylor offense is a strange mix of the spread that Texas football players are accustomed to and the power running game that Rhule knows from his days at Temple. He doesn't have the personnel to run either well at this point and its production is inconsistent. Last year at one point despite their W/L record they were one of the most explosive teams in the country by the metrics that measure that quality. They still haven't established an offensive identity and it shows.

Last year was a complete mirage as their offensive line was so unbelievably bad that the only offense they could muster was the 4th and 18 Madden Hail Mary. When the only way you can score is to just throw it deep and hope something happens, your big plays are artificially inflated in ways that don't reflect your offensive output.  Baylor doesn't really run much Power run game in 2018 outside of 3rd / 4th and short, where they go with a 23 / 22 package and an I formation w/ Hurd as the HB ( they are really good in those situations ). Their OL is not fixed yet and they can't execute the zone scheme that Rhule clearly prefers yet, but it is much much better than 2017.  That's the reason for their offensive inconsistencies. 

In terms of pure scheme, Rhule / Nixon clearly want to be "multiple" and game plan for the opponent, which could not be more different than the Briles approach of running the same ~12 plays against literally everyone in literally every situation. So against Duke and their quality front 7 they spent the entire game on rollouts and runs the stretch the defense horizontally. If their WRs could catch, they would have put up a lot more points / yards. Against K-State they pulled the TE off the field, spread them out, then pulled their OL constantly into the Boundary to get an OL matched up against a Safety ( KState ran a lot of Sky in that game ). Baylor ran for something like 260 yards and over 5.0 YPC without getting Brewer involved in the run game.

Against Texas, you can be assured they will try to scheme against whatever they consider the weakness of the defense and avoid whatever they consider the strengths. The problem for Baylor is that I don't think they have the weapons yet to really take advantage of that ( stretch vertically, Brewer doesn't have a strong arm, play with 12 / 21 packages against the Lightening Package, they don't have the TE depth, hold up on long developing pass plays, their OTs are still a work in progress ).

[Farkimedes 23]

19 minutes ago, Machinator said:

Denzel Mims is a legit weapon on the outside for Baylor. He's in the discussion, along with Hollywood Brown, Jalen Reagor, and David Sills, as one of the best WRs we'll see in conference play.

Hurd is a better WR than Mims. Mims is still a mediocre route runner and has a bad tendency to drop easy balls. Hurd is already a much better route runner and is more consistent catching the ball, but he isn't as explosive as Mims.

[GoldAppleCorps 618]

Do you remember how Texas fans were so incensed the last 2 years when our offense had all these awesome weapons, talent at WR, QB, and RB, and still couldn't put two 1st downs together? It's because, fundamentally, you have to threaten a power run - otherwise the defense just tees off on your lanes and makes throwing even a quick slant impossible (dropping LBs and DBs just love to run those things back for easy TDs).

Baylor is exactly that. Even down to the screaming about how bad their OC is.

If this were a 7 on 7, Baylor would own. Their receivers a quick, wily, and talented. If Charlie Brewer gets time, he's going to find an open man. That open man will be tough to tackle. Baylor gets huge chunks of yards on long rainbow passes that land at the boundary over the backside shoulder.

The problem is, the Texas defense cannot by typically read pre-snap. They jump, shift, fake pressure, drop, and roll coverages to an insane degree. As such, Texas fans are likely to see the very familiar attempts to swing passes to RBs, pitches to WRs, etc in order to slow the rush or avoid pressure. I don't see it working well.

There is simply no cure for an OL that can't block an inside run.

[El Diablo 4232]

42 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Hasty is potentially a very dangerous runner.  And Charlie Brewer can buy time and convert with his running ability.  If Baylor scores some TDs they will likely do so on off schedule plays where Brewer scrambles around until he can find an open man.  Good thing they play behind a dog crap OL or they might actually be dangerous.

He's been a bit of a mystery insomuch as he hasn't been utilized a lot. Apparently he suffers from migraines and they've been limiting his contact due to this and the potential there for concussions being masked by his history of headaches. He's shifty, fast and powerful - just hasn't seen the field a whole lot.

[El Diablo 4232]

30 minutes ago, Farkimedes said:

Hurd is a better WR than Mims. Mims is still a mediocre route runner and has a bad tendency to drop easy balls. Hurd is already a much better route runner and is more consistent catching the ball, but he isn't as explosive as Mims.

Hurd might be a better student of the game and his new position but I don't think he's a better WR. He's gotten better as the year has progressed but I think Mims is the better of the two.

[ztejas 43414]

1 hour ago, Machinator said:

 

Let's just TAKE ACL and MOVE it to JULY!

[taybo20 2825]

Definitely do not want a slow start here. We need to jump on Baylor early and finish them

[sushihorn 3233]

33 minutes ago, GoldAppleCorps said:

Do you remember how Texas fans were so incensed the last 2 years when our offense had all these awesome weapons, talent at WR, QB, and RB, and still couldn't put two 1st downs together? It's because, fundamentally, you have to threaten a power run - otherwise the defense just tees off on your lanes and makes throwing even a quick slant impossible (dropping LBs and DBs just love to run those things back for easy TDs).

Baylor is exactly that. Even down to the screaming about how bad their OC is.

If this were a 7 on 7, Baylor would own. Their receivers a quick, wily, and talented. If Charlie Brewer gets time, he's going to find an open man. That open man will be tough to tackle. Baylor gets huge chunks of yards on long rainbow passes that land at the boundary over the backside shoulder.

The problem is, the Texas defense cannot by typically read pre-snap. They jump, shift, fake pressure, drop, and roll coverages to an insane degree. As such, Texas fans are likely to see the very familiar attempts to swing passes to RBs, pitches to WRs, etc in order to slow the rush or avoid pressure. I don't see it working well.

There is simply no cure for an OL that can't block an inside run.

A coach can recruit skill players.  But he has to BUILD an offensive line.  Baylor's looks like it's 2 years away from being below average but serviceable. 

[Tex Pete 20339]

1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

They are pretty explosive in the passing game. 

 

1 hour ago, El Diablo said:

Last year at one point despite their W/L record they were one of the most explosive teams in the country

[sdm 847]

I hope our defense rapes Baylor's offense. Wait, was that wrong? Should I have not said that?

[Mitch Cumsteen 18547]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

That's just time of possession as far as tracked stats go. I understand what they were saying but I disagree that having been on the field 40 minutes two weeks ago affects this week's game aside from injuries. 10 minutes difference 14 days later isn't a big deal. 10 minutes difference during the current game is a big deal.

I would think number of plays would be a better metric to follow than time of possession. You aren't expending nearly as much effort when you are trying to take the air out of the ball and running one play every 45 seconds vs a hurry up offense when you are cranking out a play as fast as possible.  A few extra plays here and there may not make a difference, but over the course of a season, I think it would add up both with regard to in game fatigue and especially on the injury front -- not only with regard to fatigue-related injuries but just the added number of opportunities to get injured would increase the risk.

So far this season, Oklahoma has run 352 plays on offense, 478 on defense. Texas has run 450 on offense, 402 on defense. Over the course of a season, the OU defense is essentially playing almost two extra games.

[stork642 4498]

On 10/8/2018 at 11:54 PM, satyanash said:

 

Good post.  Hard to argue with.   

[Machinator 32099]

 

[texasstrong12 4668]

This game is made for the zone read game with Ehlinger and Ingram. Baylor's LBers are god awful. They are walk-on bad. If Texas can get them guessing huge gaps will open up in the run game. Beyond that, Baylor's LBers aren't talented enough to win individual battles against Ingram or Ehlinger. 

No reason Texas shouldn't be able to establish a successful run game against Baylor. 

 

 

[Huckleberry 32850]

9 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

This game is made for the zone read game with Ehlinger and Ingram. Baylor's LBers are god awful. They are walk-on bad. If Texas can get them guessing huge gaps will open up in the run game. Beyond that, Baylor's LBers aren't talented enough to win individual battles against Ingram or Ehlinger. 

No reason Texas shouldn't be able to establish a successful run game against Baylor. 

 

 

Baylor is giving up an adjusted 6.95 total rushing yards per carry this season (total meaning sacks moved to passing stats), which is good for 124th out of 130 teams. That is actually more yards than they're giving up in total passing per attempt. There is essentially no reason to throw the ball more than 20-25 times in this game if we are executing our run game properly. There are only 17 teams who give up more in the run game than the passing game. Some of them do that because their pass defense is really freaking good like TCU. Baylor is not that.

There are only 5 teams outside the top 30 pass defenses who are in this situation. They are UAB, Coastal Carolina, Baylor, Georgia State, and Oregon State.

Edited October 10, 2018 by Huckleberry

[texasstrong12 4668]

12 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Baylor is giving up an adjusted 6.95 total rushing yards per carry this season (total meaning sacks moved to passing stats), which is good for 124th out of 130 teams. That is actually more yards than they're giving up in total passing per attempt. There is essentially no reason to throw the ball more than 20-25 times in this game if we are executing our run game properly. There are only 17 teams who give up more in the run game than the passing game. Some of them do that because their pass defense is really freaking good like TCU. Baylor is not that.

There are only 5 teams outside the top 30 pass defenses who are in this situation. They are UAB, Coastal Carolina, Baylor, Georgia State, and Oregon State.

yeah, Baylor is terrible against the run. 

They really don't have a nose tackle mold on the roster and their LBers are walk-on level talent. Which is a recipe for disaster. 

They've been getting gashed and they haven't played a great offense outside of Oklahoma. I believe Duke is the 2nd best offense they've played at 59th in off. S&P +. 

Edited October 10, 2018 by texasstrong12

[Tex Pete 20339]

17 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

This game is made for the zone read game with Ehlinger and Ingram. Baylor's LBers are god awful. They are walk-on bad. If Texas can get them guessing huge gaps will open up in the run game. Beyond that, Baylor's LBers aren't talented enough to win individual battles against Ingram or Ehlinger. 

No reason Texas shouldn't be able to establish a successful run game against Baylor. 

I hope Ingram sits this one out. We shouldn’t need him and he obviously needs the rest. 3 weeks off (this week of practice, next week, and the week leading up to WV) would be a great thing for the stretch run. 

[texasstrong12 4668]

2 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

I hope Ingram sits this one out. We shouldn’t need him and he obviously needs the rest. 3 weeks off (this week of practice, next week, and the week leading up to WV) would be a great thing for the stretch run. 

Nah. We struggled with Maryland and Tulsa. Let's blow out these type teams first before we reach the point of sitting out our best RB. 

 

[Tex Pete 20339]

The stretch run is much more important than the scoreboard, beyond winning. 

[texasstrong12 4668]

Something else to keep in mind is that Baylor is 6th in the country in plays per game. 

This isn't K-State where they are going to fall on the ball and try to burn clock. The offense is going to get opportunities. 

[Tex Pete 20339]

4 hours ago, Machinator said:

 

And John, men with testicles don’t find any conflict between college football and ACL. What the fuck is ACL?! You and the City of Austin can go fuck yourselves, pussy. 

Del Conte should let me handle his light work. 

[El Squared 1802]

Just win.

Zero fox about anything else at this point.

[JBJ 3654]

2 hours ago, Machinator said:

 

The new kickoff playclock rule sucks.  We are far from the only team getting punished for it, and it's 100% on the refs.

The refs signalled for play with 10 seconds left on the clock after the 2nd half kick (they picked up the flag, fortunately).

Edited October 10, 2018 by JBJ

[texifornia 56870]

7 minutes ago, El Squared said:

Just win.

Zero fox about anything else at this point.

But what if we want to know how we will win?

[Katfid54 8620]

Ingram, Watson and any other speed back on our roster should be able to light Baylor up with absolutely gashing runs.  They are really bad at stopping off-tackle runs, like power and pin and pull.  Their safeties also generally take really bad angles.

We will be able to get some yards on inside zone/insert zone, because we'll get movement, but we should absolutely hammer them outside the tackles.  Frankly, if Toneil Carter is ever going to play, this is a great game to give him some carries, because his pop on some  of the inverted veer stuff we run against KSU last year could result in huge TDs.