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NLCS- Dodgers v Brewers

Sbbruin

By Sbbruin
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Bodowned

Bodowned 763

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If Cain can get his shit together at the plate, I like the Brewers' chances. He's been really bad since the beginning of September, and you can't have your leadoff guy struggling to that extent in these big-time games. Hopefully the feel-good Kratz story can continue.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54292

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It's pretty fucking hard to get work done when it's Friday and the NLCS is starting tonight and the ALCS is starting tomorrow, and the writers are bringing out the big guns.  Go ahead and neg this, @Shmitty

Rosenthal from theathletic:

Quote

No offense to Gio Gonzalez, a good pitcher and very nice guy, but what were the odds he would start Game 1 of the National League Championship Series after posting a 7.47 ERA in August?

On Aug. 31, the day the Brewers acquired Gonzalez from the Nationals to make him eligible for their postseason roster, the move had the look of desperation. The natural response to the Brewers’ actions, then and now, could be best summed up in word: “Really?”

Yes, really.

As always with the Brewers, there is a method to their madness, which isn’t actually madness, seeing as how they reached the NLCS for the first time since 2011 with their unconventional approach. As manager Craig Counsell understated Thursday, on the eve of Game 1, “we’re going to use our pitching a little differently than traditionalists would like.” Whatever the Brewers’ plan is, it almost certainly will produce managerial chess matches unlike any other in postseason history.

I’m not sure even a non-traditionalist would advocate starting Gonzalez, who has averaged 6.49 walks per nine innings in six previous postseason starts, in a series opener against the Dodgers. After all, the Dodgers led the majors in walks during the regular season, then produced an 18 percent walk rate against the Braves in the Division Series — higher than Joey Votto’s rate during the regular season.

The Brewers, though, are operating under the same premise they did in September, when they finished next-to-last in the National League in rotation innings, ahead of only the 96-loss Padres.

They do not have enough starting pitching to carry them through a best-of-seven. They did not even have enough for the best-of-five division series. So, they will use their beloved “initial out-getters,” then deploy their bullpen aggressively, knowing their relievers might not be as fresh later in the series, which will open with five games in six days.

The Dodgers are weaker against left-handed pitching than right-handed, and Gonzalez produced his usual excellent numbers against left-handed hitters during the regular season — a .219 opponents’ batting average and .597 opponents’  OPS. Not surprisingly, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said his lineup will look similar to the one he used against Braves lefty Sean Newcomb in Game 3 of the DS, when Cody Bellinger was Los Angeles’ only pure left-handed hitter.

The fun will begin when the Brewers remove Gonzalez, which will happen at the first sign of trouble faster than you can say “Aaron Boone.”

Counsell almost certainly will turn to a right-handed reliever first, tempting the Dodgers to unload their left-handed platoon. But the Dodgers did not bite immediately after the Braves removed Newcomb for a righty, making a quick switch only at first base, where Max Muncy replaced David Freese in the third inning. Roberts did not use Yasiel Puig, a right-handed batter who hits righties better than lefties, until the sixth, and Joc Pederson, a left-handed hitter, until the ninth.

Besides, a sharp turn to the left is not necessarily advisable against the Brewers, whose right-handed relievers, for the most part, were better against left-handed hitters this season, Joakim Soria being the sole exception.

Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel, Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes all had a lower opponents’ OPS against lefties than they did righties. And left-handed hitters, of course, stand virtually no chance against Brewers lefty relief ace Josh Hader, who held them to a .355 OPS this season, the lowest in the majors, minimum 100 plate appearances.

So, the Dodgers likely will hold back certain left-handed hitters for specific matchups, potentially increasing the significance of righties such as Freese, Chris Taylor and Matt Kemp, at least for the first two games against Brewers lefties Gonzalez and Wade Miley. Then again, who knows what Counsell might do? The Brewers’ manager said righty Jhoulys Chacin, his listed Game 3 starter, will be available out of the bullpen in Game 1.

The Brewers’ offense, meanwhile, figures to be a much more formidable test for Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw on Friday night than the Braves were in Game 2 of the DS. Kershaw needed only 85 pitches to navigate eight innings against the overly aggressive Braves; the Brewers, a more mature group, know Kershaw is not the strikeout pitcher he once was, so they need not fear getting to two strikes the way they once did.

Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Jesús Aguilar and Ryan Braun were four of the NL’s top 17 hitters against left-handers using OPS, and the Dodgers employ two other lefty starters, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill. So, the idea of the Brewers taking quick leads, then turning games over to their bullpen, is not at all far-fetched.

For all the debate about the merits of “bull-penning,” the concept only adds intrigue to in-game strategy, which in the postseason is always fascinating, anyway. The Brewers want to use their relievers to handcuff the Dodgers’ hitters. The Dodgers want to combine their plate discipline and depth to exhaust the Brewers’ pitchers.

I’m not sure Counsell can hold his staff together for a best-of-seven, but heck I’ve been saying things like that all season. Here’s one for the underdog, and the unconventional.

Brewers in 7.

 

Edited by Beau Vine
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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54292

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Travis Sawchick on the Brewers' off-season "luck":

Quote

Winning the offseason — signing the marquee free agent and/or making the headline-grabbing trade — does not correlate strongly with actual winning. The San Diego Padres “won” the 2014-15 offseason by adding Craig Kimbrel, James Shields and a host of other players, then went on to lose 88 games the following season. The previous winter, Seattle shocked the baseball world by outbidding the Yankees for All-Star Robinson Cano, but the Mariners still haven’t made the playoffs since 2001. In December 2011, the Los Angeles Angels signed Albert Pujols to a 10-year, $240 million contract — a contract that quickly became one of the great albatrosses in the sport. The deal has compromised the Angels’ ability to improve their club; Angels star Mike Trout has participated in only three playoff games in his career.

But last winter, something unusual happened: The Milwaukee Brewers won the offseason and went on to win in the actual season. The Brewers, who will begin the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday, acquired the best player in the trade market last winter in Christian Yelich and the best player in the free-agent market in Lorenzo Cain. They also found an undervalued arm in Jhoulys Chacin.

These big-name acquisitions exceeded expectations. In total, no team had a better year-to-year roster overhaul than the Brewers — and it wasn’t close.

The Brewers added 18.90 wins above replacement1 from outside their organization in 2018. The next closest teams were the Tampa Bay Rays (11.93 WAR) and Houston Astros (9.05). In terms of net gains and losses from last offseason, the Brewers’ departing players accounted for -0.02 WAR of value in 2018 with their new teams, making their net WAR gain from offseason transactions 18.92. The next closest clubs? The Red Sox (7.78) and Reds (5.43). Yelich (7.61 WAR), Cain (6.30) and Chacin (2.50) accounted for 39.7 percent of Milwaukee’s WAR this season.

The Brewers won the offseason … and the NL Central

MLB teams by net wins above replacement (WAR) for the 2018 regular season

team Net WAR
Milwaukee Brewers +18.92
–
Boston Red Sox +7.78
–
Cinncinati Reds +5.43
–
Cleveland Indians +3.97
–
Toronto Blue Jays +3.95
–
New York Yankees +3.77
–
San Francisco Giants +3.33
–
Minnesota Twins +3.26
–
Houston Astros +2.73
–
Philadelphia Phillies +2.15
–
Atlanta Braves +1.94
–
Tampa Bay Rays +1.84
–
San Diego Padres +1.48
–
Los Angeles Dodgers +1.45
–
Seattle Mariners +0.73
–
Colorado Rockies -0.47
–
Oakland Athletics -0.49
–
Texas Rangers -1.46
–
Washington Nationals -1.53
–
New York Mets -1.84
–
Baltimore Orioles -2.47
–
Pittsburgh Pirates -2.49
–
Chicago Cubs -5.55
–
Los Angeles Angels -5.81
–
Arizona Diamondbacks -5.91
–
Chicago White Sox -5.93
–
St. Louis Cardinals -13.27
–
Miami Marlins -13.59
–
Detroit Tigers -15.01
–
Kansas City Royals -16.22
–

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball-reference.com

One reason it’s so difficult to translate offseason success to the actual playing field is that predicting player performance is a difficult task in just about every sport — even a sport rich in data like baseball. Injury and misfortune can derail the best of plans.

Another reason is tied to a macro-level trend in baseball: Free agency has been devalued.

Because of both performance and financial motivations, teams are prizing cheaper, younger talent more. The average age of an MLB player in 2004 hit a post-World War II high of 29.2, but that has gradually declined to a 21st-century low of 28.2 years this season. Testing for performance-enhancing drugs, which began in earnest in 2004, has also likely played a role in the disappearance of 30-somethings — ages when players are typically acquired as free agents. Simply put, it’s more difficult to buy a competitive team in baseball, while the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros have won titles with homegrown efforts and given MLB a blueprint in the past several seasons.

Yet Milwaukee defied the odds and — partially through spending — got itself a contending team. As the industry zigged, the Brewers zagged.

Conventional wisdom has it that small-market baseball teams must be homegrown because there is no financial mechanism like a salary cap to level the playing field, though baseball’s strengthened penalties for exceeding the luxury tax are acting something like a soft cap.2 But the Brewers, ranking 23rd in opening day payroll, had the second lowest amount of homegrown production this season, according to MLB.com’s Mike Petriello, who found that only the Oakland A’s had a lower share of homegrown WAR than the Brewers’ mark of 17 percent.

The Brewers’ offseason and in-season success is tied to being opportunistic. The team took advantage of a suppressed free-agent market to land Cain, an effort perhaps aided by clubs saving dollars to pursue Bryce Harper and Manny Machado this coming offseason. Star-level free agents often sign before New Year’s Day, but it wasn’t until late January that Cain reached a five-year agreement worth $80 million. While the back end of the deal might not turn out to be favorable for the club, the 32-year-old Cain’s 6.3-win season has already covered much of the expense in terms of performance value. Among 2017-18 free agents, no one was more valuable than Cain this season — even J.D. Martinez, who is guaranteed $30 million more over five years.

While teams have become more leery of free agency, they’ve also become less likely to part with prospect talent. Milwaukee went against the grain here, too, in acquiring Yelich, who may very well be the NL MVP. The Brewers surrendered four prospects — including their top prospect, Lewis Brinson — to acquire Yelich. The 26-year-old is under club control through the 2022 season at $51.3 million.

All clubs are interested in free-agent bargain hunting to fill out their rosters — and the Brewers did well here, too, in signing Chacin to a two-year, $15.5 million deal. Chacin’s 2.50 WAR was third only to Miles Mikolas (4.47 WAR)3 and Jake Arrieta (2.65 WAR) among free-agent starting pitchers signed over the winter.

With the Brewers, Chacin and Yelich have gotten more out of their abilities. Chacin’s slider usage rate has increased to a career-high 43.9 percent; in run value per 100 pitches, it was the 11th-best slider in baseball. Yelich became more aggressive in swinging in early counts in the second half, and his home run-to-fly ball rate surged to 48.1 percent.

The Brewers were also able to avoid the overpriced relief market, returning Josh Hader and Corey Knebel — their top two relievers from 2017. Their bullpen is the strength of their pitching staff.

Milwaukee invested wisely. The Brewers saw undervalued players and opportunity last winter. Because of that, this high-import, small-budget team is four wins from the World Series.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-brewers-are-the-rare-team-to-win-the-offseason-and-the-actual-season/

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19208

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3 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Every team in this round will go with 12 pitchers. Not a short bench and doesn’t portend a longer than usual game. Regular season rosters typically 12-13 pitchers.

Did you read the article?  Milwaukee will use a shit ton of pitchers and we know Roberts likes to get cute and overuse his bullpen as well.

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spystud13

spystud13 2371

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LF Chris Taylor R
3B J. Turner R
1B David Freese R
SS M. Machado R
RF Matt Kemp R
2B E. Hernandez R
CF C. Bellinger L
C Y. Grandal B
P C. Kershaw L


CF Lorenzo Cain R
RF C. Yelich L
LF Ryan Braun R
1B J. Aguilar R
2B Hernan Perez R
3B M. Moustakas L
C Manny Pina R
SS O. Arcia R
P Gio Gonzalez L

 

Whole lot of righties. Perez over Schoop. 

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