ALCS: Astros vs. Red Sox

[UTexasFight 9,514]

So go with an opener for the first batter and bring in Price

Profit.

 

Matter of fact, do the same for Keuchel and his 6.88 first inning ERA this year.

[mycox 582]

1 hour ago, DeadArmadillo said:

You can find an OK room for less than tree fiddy, I bet. If it's a ways from Fenway, use public transportation. You really don't need a rental car up there. Anything less than 5 bills for a ticket is a bargain. So don't be so tight with your money. I'd do it if I were you. Even the Bregman family would tell you to do it. IYKWIMAIBTYD

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk
 

Well shit, I have screwed around waiting too long on flights. United has no nonstop flights available with points Friday, and only one nonstop flight that arrives in Boston 9:30pm Saturday.  United is the only airline out of IAH that flies nonstop to Boston.

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

6 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

So go with an opener for the first batter and bring in Price

Profit.

 

Matter of fact, do the same for Keuchel and his 6.88 first inning ERA this year.

This is the playoffs. Keuchel is usually better than regular season.

I might pick Verlander as my all time game 1 series starter, but Keuchel is no slouch when the pressure is on. 

[Scraps 13,567]

Here for the Red Sox gangbang

[UTexasFight 9,514]

This is the playoffs. Keuchel is usually better than regular season.
I might pick Verlander as my all time game 1 series starter, but Keuchel is no slouch when the pressure is on. 

Yeah for the record I’m confident in Keuchel.
Game 3 could very well be his last start as an Astro in MMP.
I expect him to perform well.

[UTexasFight 9,514]

Defense preview:

Boston Red Sox

1. Mookie Betts is the best remaining defensive player in the postseason. He’s led all players in Defensive Runs Saved over the last three seasons and led right fielders in Defensive Runs Saved in each of the last three seasons (none of them have half as many as his 83).

What makes Betts great? He can chase down anything in any direction. Over the last three seasons, he’s converted 41 percent of attempts in which he sprinted for a ball into an out. That success rate is the highest among the 40 right fielders with the most opportunities. He also leads those at the position with 24 jumping catches in that time.

2. The Red Sox infield defense was very good against the Yankees, converting 78 percent of grounders and bunt grounders into outs. Though Núñez had a strong Game 4, third base is the weak link and could be problematic. Red Sox third basemen (primarily Núñez and Rafael Devers) combined for -17 Defensive Runs Saved this season, the second-worst total in the majors.

3. The Red Sox have two excellent catchers in Sandy León and Christian Vázquez, though León is the better of the two. His 12 Defensive Runs Saved tied for second in the majors this season. León is widely praised for his handling of pitchers. By Sports Info Solutions’ measures, he’s the best at getting strike calls on pitches in the strike zone and steals his share out of the zone, too.

Houston Astros

1. Be prepared for a lot of defensive shifts. The Astros shifted the fourth most of any team this season, and the shifts worked well.

Though we’re used to seeing teams excel at shifting left-handed hitters, the Astros stand out against right-handed batters (you might have noticed the Yankees shifting right-handed Red Sox a bunch). The Astros converted nearly 80 percent of ground balls into outs when shifting a righty, the third highest out rate in the majors.

2. The Astros’ best defensive outfielder among their starters is Josh Reddick, who has saved at least five runs in right field in each of the last three seasons. Reddick keeps his mistakes to a minimum and has been strong on balls hit to both the shallowest and deepest parts of the ballpark.

One postseason adjustment the Astros have made with their outfield is inserting Jake Marisnick in center field and moving George Springer to right field late in games. Marisnick’s 12 Defensive Runs Saved in center are considerably better than Springer’s -5 there. Springer is better in right than in center and the Astros feel it’s worthwhile to do that, even though it moves Reddick to left field rather than keep him in his stronger position in right.

A.J. Hinch also has the flexibility to use late-season call-up outfielder Myles Straw. He passes both the eye test (Baseball America’s minor league poll rated him the best arm in the Pacific Coast League) and the numerical gauges (he had 17 outfield assists in the minors this season).

3. The Astros will go with either Martín Maldonado or Brian McCann at catcher. Maldonado is an elite pitch framer (tied for fifth in our pitch-framing metric, Strike Zone Runs Saved, over the last two seasons) and stolen base deterrence (he threw out 15 of 33 would-be basestealers in 2018), but McCann has better numbers with Justin Verlander (1.74 ERA) and Gerrit Cole (2.54 ERA).

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,208]

8 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

3. The Astros will go with either Martín Maldonado or Brian McCann at catcher. Maldonado is an elite pitch framer (tied for fifth in our pitch-framing metric, Strike Zone Runs Saved, over the last two seasons) and stolen base deterrence (he threw out 15 of 33 would-be basestealers in 2018), but McCann has better numbers with Justin Verlander (1.74 ERA) and Gerrit Cole (2.54 ERA).

McCann doesn’t need to be playing ahead of Machete... ever.

[tx 3 putt 77,160]

should be a great series, can't wait 

fuck boston 

[Guest]

I just want an E by middle of next week.

N-E-V-E-R S-E-...

Edited October 11, 2018 by slorch

[dbecks 442]

10 hours ago, Helobious said:

In his 10 career postseason starts, his team is 0-10.

And yet... he still has a postseason ERA nearly a whole run lower than Severino.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, dbecks said:

And yet... he still has a postseason ERA nearly a whole run lower than Severino.

After the other night that seems less remarkable...

[Fozzz 152]

imo, focusing on postseason stats is pretty dumb as they are generally SSS noise.  Maybe if "clutch" was a real skill then I could buy into them potentially having predictive value, but it's not so I don't.  

[Helobious 9,463]

49 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

imo, focusing on postseason stats is pretty dumb as they are generally SSS noise.  Maybe if "clutch" was a real skill then I could buy into them potentially having predictive value, but it's not so I don't.  

Analytics has started to back off the idea that there’s no such thing as clutch, because there’s evidence that certain players really do perform better in big moments. Jeter out front should’ve told ya.

[Fozzz 152]

10 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Analytics has started to back off the idea that there’s no such thing as clutch, because there’s evidence that certain players really do perform better in big moments. Jeter out front should’ve told ya.

Fake news.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/38398/prospectus-feature-revised-look-clutch-hitting-part-1/

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/38519/prospectus-feature-revised-look-clutch-hitting-part-2/

Note: This isn't to say some players have been more clutch in the past than others (of course this would be true), but that past clutch performance from a player is no basis for predicting future clutch performance.

Edited October 11, 2018 by Fozzz

[Fozzz 152]

In the case of David Price, if I were a Sox fan I would be much more concerned with the fact that Price was about a league average pitcher this season (96 FIP-) (he's also a LHP facing a lineup geared to mash LHP), than the fact that he's 0-10 as a starter in the postseason.  

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

Analytics has started to back off the idea that there’s no such thing as clutch, because there’s evidence that certain players really do perform better in big moments. Jeter out front should’ve told ya.

Clutch is definitely a thing.  In every sport.  Its why a journeyman bball player like Robert Horry is better in the playoffs than in the regular season while an all-world scorer like James Harden folds like paper in elimination games.

In baseball, I've often wondered what goes through a hitters head.  Down 1, man on base, game 7 of the WS.  9th inning.  I'd be nervous as shit.  They have to go out there like its just another day at the park.  The pitcher too.   If you look at last year, a lot of games turned on the Astros being clutch while the other team wasn't.  Springer was often hitting like he was taking batting practice.

[Beau Vine 54,292]

2 hours ago, Fozzz said:

imo, focusing on postseason stats is pretty dumb as they are generally SSS noise. 

Generally.  But if you flip a coin 10 times and get 10 straight heads, you're going to wonder about that coin even though that is a small sample.

 

[UTexasFight 9,514]

Oh boy...Joe West crew chief. O/U on delays for foreign substance checks?

2018 ALCS umpire crew:
Joe West (crew chief)
Vic Carapazza
Mark Carlson
Chris Guccione
Mark Wegner
Bill Miller (replay 1-2)
James Hoye (replay 3-7)
Paul Nauert (replay assistant)

[Underdog 28,745]

11 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Oh boy...Joe West crew chief. O/U on delays for foreign substance checks?

2018 ALCS umpire crew:
Joe West (crew chief)
Vic Carapazza
Mark Carlson
Chris Guccione
Mark Wegner
Bill Miller (replay 1-2) The BBQ King of Texas? 
James Hoye (replay 3-7)
Paul Nauert (replay assistant)

.

[Bateshorn 9,928]

I was there in August against the Rays and it was stupendous.  Fenway always delivers.  You'll hate yourself if you don't go.

The funny thing is Betts didn't really hit well in the NY series.  If the the Red Sox can get him going, that would be finominal

[Beau Vine 54,292]

West and Wegner, two of Hawk Harrelson's favorites.

 

 

[UTexasFight 9,514]

After seeing that crew, I’d frankly be shocked if the umpires were not a key story in this series.

I’d also be shocked if this isn’t West’s final series. Whether that’s by his own choice or a gentle nudge by the umpire union /MLB, I don’t know.

[kevwun 15,808]

I doubt MLB has much say in it.  Angel Hernandez is inept and is suing the league and he still got a playoff series.

Edited October 11, 2018 by kevwun

[Beau Vine 54,292]

7 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

After seeing that crew, I’d frankly be shocked if the umpires were not a key story in this series.

I’d also be shocked if this isn’t West’s final series. Whether that’s by his own choice or a gentle nudge by the umpire union /MLB, I don’t know.

They're giving Joe the chance to go out in style by breaking Angel Hernandez's record for Most Calls Overturned in a Playoff Game.  (And Series.)

[Hank Chinaski 6,315]

4 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

Clutch is definitely a thing.  In every sport.  Its why a journeyman bball player like Robert Horry is better in the playoffs than in the regular season while an all-world scorer like James Harden folds like paper in elimination games.

In baseball, I've often wondered what goes through a hitters head.  Down 1, man on base, game 7 of the WS.  9th inning.  I'd be nervous as shit.  They have to go out there like its just another day at the park.  The pitcher too.   If you look at last year, a lot of games turned on the Astros being clutch while the other team wasn't.  Springer was often hitting like he was taking batting practice.

It may be a thing, but the question is whether past "clutch performance" is predictive of future "clutch" performance. It generally isn't. 

Remember when Barry Bonds sucked in the postseason because he wasn't "clutch?"? Then 2002 happened and he hit .356/.581/.978 with 8 HR in 17 games. 

 

[henrygandorf 29,194]

54 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

It may be a thing, but the question is whether past "clutch performance" is predictive of future "clutch" performance. It generally isn't. 

Remember when Barry Bonds sucked in the postseason because he wasn't "clutch?"? Then 2002 happened and he hit .356/.581/.978 with 8 HR in 17 games. 

 

not sure barry bonds is the greatest case study for comparing feats accomplished in the beginning vs the end of careers.  just sayin.

[F250 28,789]

10 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

not sure barry bonds is the greatest case study for comparing feats accomplished in the beginning vs the end of careers.  just sayin.

If you are talking about that thing, it was just an unknown substance that Bonds put into his body. The dude had no idea it was roids, the performance enhancement was just a coincidence.

 

 

[cabowabo 4,492]

Is you ready???

[WBT 20,635]

1 hour ago, Hank Chinaski said:

It may be a thing, but the question is whether past "clutch performance" is predictive of future "clutch" performance. It generally isn't. 

Remember when Barry Bonds sucked in the postseason because he wasn't "clutch?"? Then 2002 happened and he hit .356/.581/.978 with 8 HR in 17 games. 

 

he was taking the cream and the clear and the clutch

[NeverMarryAStripper 21,909]

I predict that either Houston or Boston will take the series with 4 victories

[DeadArmadillo 907]

23 hours ago, mycox said:

Well shit, I have screwed around waiting too long on flights. United has no nonstop flights available with points Friday, and only one nonstop flight that arrives in Boston 9:30pm Saturday.  United is the only airline out of IAH that flies nonstop to Boston.

That's OK.  Start checking flights to Milwaukee and LA.  Watching the Astros in the World Series > watching the Astros in the ALDS.  I'm gonna try to make it to one game

[UTexasFight 9,514]

We still have two whole days...

JoePos: are the 2018 Red Sox and Astros two of the best baseball teams of all time?

So I spoke to a business communications class Thursday morning — no, you don’t care, but there’s a point here — and one of the students in the class asked me about the Red Sox-Astros series and I said, “This is going to be awesome because, you know, Boston and Houston are two of the greatest teams in baseball history.”

I wish I’d had a camera to record the look on his face when I said the words “two of the greatest teams in baseball history.” It was some combination of disgust, nausea, outrage and that face you make when you’re eating one of those sour candies that are actually much sourer than you were expecting.

But it’s true, anyway: Boston and Houston are two of the greatest teams in baseball history.

And that’s why this series is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before.

I’m going to start off by giving you a few statistics, most uncovered by our stats guru Katie Sharp, that will tell you how absurd this series is. Then we’ll talk a little bit about the emotional part of a series like this.

Let’s start off with most combined victories in a postseason. The record is 212 combined wins; that happened in the 1998 World Series when the 114-win Yankees swept the 98-win Padres. That’s pretty impressive, but let’s be honest: The Yankees are doing most of the work there. No offense to the Padres, who were a good team, but that’s a bit like saying that the Aaron brothers have the most combined homers for siblings, with Tommie contributing 13 to Hank’s 755.

In this series, the Red Sox (108) and Astros (103) combine for 211 wins. That’s the second highest total of all time — and it’s much more evenly distributed. It’s two all-time teams, not just one.

But victories are only one way to look at this. You can also look at wins above replacement. The Astros and Red Sox combined for 114.2 WAR, tied with the 2017 Cleveland-Yankees division series for most ever. But the beauty here is not the combined total, as great as that is. It is the equilibrium. The Astros have 57.1 WAR as a team. The Red Sox also have 57.1 WAR as a team. It’s an amazing series in perfect balance.

Another way to look at quality is to look at Bill James’ Pythagorean theorem, which gives teams a win-loss percentage based on how many runs they score and how many they allow. This might offer a clearer picture of the overall quality of the teams by stripping out some of the luck. Well, this series — thank you, Baseball-Reference founder Sean Forman — will rank eighth all-time in combined Pythagorean win percentage.

Let’s look at those top eight series by Pythagorean Win-Loss percentage:

1. 1942 World Series, Cardinals vs. Yankees (combined 1.394 win-loss percentage)

These two teams had an amazing battle, but this was during World War II when quality was way down.

2. 1906 World Series, White Sox vs. Cubs (1.352)

A classic Deadball matchup.

3. 1939 World Series, Yankees vs. Reds (1.348)

The Reds were good but this is on the list mostly because the 1939 Yankees have an argument for the greatest team in baseball history.

4. 1910 World Series, Athletics vs. Cubs (1.341)

A classic Deadball matchup.

5. 1912 World Series, Reds Sox vs. Giants (1.330)

A classic Deadball matchup.

6. 1909 World Series, Pirates vs. Tigers (1.328)

A classic Deadball matchup.

7. 1953 World Series, Yankees vs. Dodgers (1.313)

Finally, we have a sort-of modern matchup, even if this was 65 years ago. The Casey Stengel Yankees vs. the Boys of Summer Dodgers; it was apparent even in the moment that this was a matchup of two all-time great teams.

8. 2018 ALCS Astros vs. Red Sox (1.310)

And there you have it. By runs scored and allowed, we haven’t had a series like this in most of our lifetimes. And it makes sense: Baseball almost never has two teams as good as the Red Sox and Astros in a single season, and it’s even less likely that they would play in the same league.

This brings up a good point: Yes, the Red Sox and Astros were absurdly successful this year. But how much of that can be attributed to the historic awfulness of the American League? The league was absurdly non-competitive. Three teams lost 100-plus games and two more lost 95-plus games. That means one-third of the league was not just bad, but truly terrible.

You could say that the Red Sox and Astros, while obviously terrific teams, simply built up their win totals on a league that is way down and on teams that were looking toward the future (and not too worried about the present). And you would be right.

That’s when you have to talk about just how good some of these players are.

Houston has two players — Justin Verlander and José Altuve — who I feel pretty confident will go to the Hall of Fame. Altuve is just 28 and has a long way to go, but he’s such a good player in so many ways — a great hitter, hits with power, runs the bases, plays terrific defense — that I think he will get there. Verlander, I think, has already earned his way, and he’s coming off one of his best seasons at age 35.

So that’s two Hall of Famers. Alex Bregman just put up an MVP-type season. It will not be an MVP season this year (we’ll get back to that in a minute), but he led the league in doubles, hit 30 homers, scored 100 runs, drove in 100 runs — that’s MVP stuff, and he’s just 24. Starter Gerrit Cole is terrific. Starter Charlie Morton is terrific. There are more terrific pitchers all over that bullpen. George Springer is terrific. Carlos Correa was hurt and he struggled all year, but he’s just 23 and one of the greatest talents in baseball. On and on and on.

You just don’t see many teams like that.

Then you go across the diamond and you see … another team like that. I mentioned that Bregman’s year was not quite MVP material this season, and that’s because Mookie Betts had an impossibly awesome year, a year so good that you could argue it was as good as Mike Trout’s, something that almost nobody has been able to say the last few years. Betts’ 10.9 Baseball-Reference WAR was the most for any player since Barry Bonds, and the most in the American League since Cal Ripken in 1991.

Betts is just 25 and has so much more to do, but if you asked me to bet, “Will he or won’t he go to the Hall of Fame?” I’m putting all my chips on “will he.”

And the same is true with starter Chris Sale, who is coming off another dominant year in a long series of dominant years.

J.D. Martinez almost won the Triple Crown. Xander Boegarts had a fantastic offensive season. Andrew Benintendi looks like he will be the next great left-field icon in Boston, a proud tradition from Ted Williams to Carl Yastrzemski to Jim Rice to Manny Ramirez. David Price has won a Cy Young. Rick Porcello has won a Cy Young. Craig Kimbrel is one of the most dominant closers ever. Stars everywhere you turn.

This is how you know it’s not just circumstance. These two teams are loaded with generational talents and historically great players. Baseball is played very different than it was when the Babe Ruth Yankees or the Earl Weaver Orioles or the Big Red Machine or even the last 1990s Yankees played. And these two teams play this new brand of baseball with all the strikeouts, defensive shifts, pitching changes and home-run power that you need to win. The only obvious weakness anyone can see is the Red Sox’s somewhat-shaky bullpen.

That doesn’t mean this will be a sure-fire competitive series; you never can tell when it’s best-of-seven. One team gets rolling and it could be over quickly, and without the anticipated tension and joy. But we still should stop for a moment to realize that this is not normal, not typical, not just another series. It’s an all-timer. It really does match up two of the best teams ever. And it could be a classic.

 

[Beau Vine 54,292]

It's pretty fucking hard to get work done when it's Friday and the NLCS is starting tonight and the ALCS is starting tomorrow, and the writers are bringing out the big guns.  (Go ahead and neg this, Schmitty.)

Stark on the Astros:

Quote

Don’t let this get around. It will ruin their reputation forever. But just between us, there’s something you need to know about the Houston Astros, the nerdiest, geekiest, most data-driven, number-crunching baseball operation ever assembled.

Their secret sauce is an ingredient that has never shown up on any of their Excel spreadsheets. Ssshh. We’re going to whisper it right now …

It’s “culture.”

It’s true. They think about culture. They study it. They sign it. They trade for it. They grow it. They nurture it. They care about it.

They just can’t compute it to the 78th decimal point.

“It’s hard to quantify,” their general manager, Jeff Luhnow, told us, in a top-secret meeting with The Athletic’s Culture Club earlier this year. “Which I think is why it’s a softer science that gets made fun of in some respects. But just because it’s hard to quantify doesn’t mean it’s not super-important.”

More on how Luhnow and his info-obsessed front office include culture in their decision-making process shortly. But first, let’s frame why this matters.

As they peer ahead to their epic ALCS meeting with the 108-win Red Sox, the 2018 Astros find themselves eight wins away from doing what no team has done in nearly 20 years – winning a second World Series in a row. There are a thousand reasons that no team has repeated since the 1998-1999-2000 Yankees. But one of the biggest is this:

Teams get comfortable.

They don’t mean to get comfortable. They’ll deny they got comfortable. They don’t even realize they’re getting comfortable. But this is what happens to human beings who do that thing they’ve waited their whole life to do.

Once you do that thing, it can’t possibly be as important to you to do that same thing again – can it? – if only because the second time is never going to matter as much as the first time.

In sports, that’s even truer. When you win, you get famous. You get hugged. You get pounded on the back. You get champagne in your eyeballs. You get “Saturday Night Live” invitations. You get to ride in a parade. You get to go to Disney World. You get paid.

So once you find yourself awash in that glow, imagine how hard it is to push yourself – and everyone around you – to grind through the marathon of another baseball season, all so you can do that thing you’ve already done. It’s harder to find that strength than you probably realize.

But if you spend five minutes around the 2018 Astros, you notice something:

They’re still pushing.

“I said this in spring training,” Justin Verlander said the other day. “If I had been traded to the Astros after last year’s World Series and I’d walked into this clubhouse this spring and didn’t know anything, I would have assumed this was a young and hungry team that wanted to win a World Series [for the first time]. And I’m dead serious, man. At no point this season was there one ounce of complacency. We grind for everything – always. Scratch, claw for every single win. And you see it now.

“This is a really special group,” Verlander went on. “I don’t even know how to explain it. I don’t know that I’ve ever been a part of anything like this. I’ve been a part of some really special teams, obviously. But I don’t know if I’ve ever quite been part of something like this.”

Something like what, you ask? Let’s describe it this way:

There is a belief within this group that to be truly great, talent alone isn’t the ultimate difference-maker. You know what really separates the elite teams from everyone else? They play with focus, energy and purpose every day. Not just some days. Not even most days. This is about every day.

Very, very few teams do that, see that, know that, get that, exude that. But it’s thoroughly ingrained in the culture of these Astros, even after a parade.

They’re still doing what the elite teams do: Play like every game matters. Like every inning matters. Like every at-bat matters.

Has the world noticed? Not much, actually. But the manager noticed.

“I don’t think our guys got enough credit for winning when people expected us to win,” said A.J. Hinch. “To win a franchise-record number of games, [it was because of] the approach these guys brought every day.”

What he saw from Day One this spring, Hinch said, was “a great humility.” A work ethic. An understanding that “if we’re going to do something special, we’re going to need to attack it differently than we did. It wasn’t just we were going to copy and paste from the year before.”

So “when we got pushed,” he said, “we fought back …. Throughout the year, when we were tested, I was reminded [of] the resolve of these guys, the determination to win.”

Where does that resolve come from? From the relentless passion of Alex Bregman and George Springer. From the daily diligence of José Altuve. From the never-ending competitive fire of Verlander. Even from the infectious joy of a role player like Tony Kemp. It’s real. And it sweeps up the whole group, because none of it is phony.

“I think it’s the DNA of the guys on this team that dictates everything in this clubhouse,” Verlander said. “The guys that make everybody stand to attention – the Altuves, the Springers, the Bregmans, the Marwins [i.e., Marwin González], myself, Dallas [Keuchel], Gerrit [Cole] – the want, the urge to win, trumps everything else, man.”

Maybe you’re thinking: C’mon, every team wants to win. Every team has that urge. Every team puts in the work. So how do we convince you – how do they convince you – that you don’t find this everywhere?

Just listen to the veteran players who came to Houston from somewhere else. They’re the ones who see that the fuel in this team’s tank is anything but regular.

“It’s very rare,” said catcher Brian McCann, now in his 14th season and playing in October for his third franchise. “But you get some of the best players in the league, all on one team, and they all push each other. All of these guys, they push each other to be better. And the love for baseball in this clubhouse is higher than I’ve ever seen.”

So what are all these men doing in that clubhouse, with that love, that push, that DNA? It’s not all luck. It’s part of the Astros’ process – just one that nobody talks much about.

“This is still a people business,” Luhnow said. “And if you don’t have the right combination of people, with the right motivations and desires, it’s just not going to work. And that’s something that I learned in the other industries I was in prior to coming into baseball.

“Whether it’s manufacturing or sales or sports, having good ideas is one thing. Getting those ideas implemented by human beings, so that they can do what you need them to do, is a whole ‘nother level. And I think that’s where oftentimes, bright people go astray, because they don’t realize how complicated it is to get human beings to change their behavior, or to do something differently for the sake of the organization.”

So the Astros are consciously trying to construct this type of culture. Luhnow began his baseball career in St. Louis, where the Cardinals were obsessed with culture. The future GM of the Astros was paying close attention.

He knows the sabermetric crowd that worships this team is the same crowd that laughs the loudest when people talk “chemistry.” But Luhnow believes he has come to understand the distinction between “chemistry” – which is often an accident – and “culture,” which is a purposeful part of team-building.

“I think chemistry is such a slippery topic,” the GM said. “It really is how people work together toward a common objective. That’s what we’re trying to accomplish. Working together isn’t necessarily how they turn a double play or how they throw relays from the outfield to home plate, or how the pitcher and catcher work together. It’s also how they operate as a cohesive unit when they’re not playing, how they help each other out, how they challenge each other, how leadership evolves in the clubhouse, how the manager and the coaches inspire and lead the team.”

So no player move this team makes is made without an evaluation of how each new player is likely to fit into that model. It’s just that this evaluation isn’t one that can come spinning out of any hard drive.

“We spend a lot of time,” Luhnow said. “Clubbies [clubhouse men] talk to clubbies. Trainers talk to trainers. Front offices talk to front offices. Players talk to players. You can always find a player who was with that team last year who is no longer with them, who somebody with the organization knows. Information crosses boundaries very rapidly. And quite frankly, with social media, you can pick up a lot of clues about someone’s personality and how they behave and all of that.

“With media reports, etc., you can get misled by that stuff.  So you have to be careful. But there are plenty of ways to do research. And the worst thing is when you get a player and realize you could have found out more about him before you got him and you didn’t do your homework. That’s something that’s happened to all of us in our careers. But it’s something we try hard [to avoid].”

Yet this is the team that traded for Toronto closer Roberto Osuna the day before the trading deadline, after he had been arrested for assault and suspended by Major League Baseball for 75 games. You know how that deal was perceived. The Astros still were willing to make it, with full knowledge of Osuna’s legal issues and understanding that many people would view him as a disruptive force. This front office has long relied on the people skills of Hinch to smooth out its disruptions before they get a chance to fester. So the Astros were surprisingly confident that Osuna’s arrival wouldn’t create significant, lasting problems in a clubhouse populated by leaders who would be on high alert for any sign of trouble. Osuna’s presence will never rank as one of this team’s feel-good stories. But however you might feel about this move, there has been no indication — at least so far — that it has left any meaningful scars internally.

Ultimately, it’s a deal the Astros couldn’t have made without a strong belief in the culture they have created and the forces that maintain it. This may be an imprecise science, Luhnow believes. But it’s an “experience-based science.”

“You really have to try to understand what your environment is, and who tends to thrive in that type of environment,” he said, without referring to any acquisition in particular. “And that’s probably the most scientific approach you can take to it.”

Some moves work because the culture is strong enough to absorb them. Other moves are made with an open awareness of how they can enhance that culture. What is McCann doing on this team? What was Carlos Beltrán doing on this team a year ago? They weren’t brought to town strictly for their baseball skills.

“If you let [culture and leadership] be the primary determinant of how you put together your roster, even on the fringes of your roster, you end up giving up value that you shouldn’t be giving up,” Luhnow said. “But if you can identify players that can still contribute on the field the way they should and, on top of that, have an ability to lead or bring people together, that’s what we’re all searching for.”

The key word there, by the way, was “all.” We’ve asked many of the brightest, most forward-thinking GMs in baseball this year about how much they think about culture. We’d guess that a lot of people would be shocked by how they responded. We haven’t run across one yet who dismisses culture-building in how a roster is constructed. Not one.

But it’s one thing to try to build it. It’s another thing to watch the defending champs give a nightly clinic on how and why it matters. How does a team win 101 games and a World Series one year, then come back and win more games the next?

If you think that’s just about talent, you might want to ask yourself a question: How come no other team has been able to accomplish that – at least not in an era in which the season has become a six-month, 162-game grind, followed by a postseason that now lasts four exhausting weeks?

No intelligently run team, one that takes pride in its massive attention to detail, would ever overlook something as vital as culture. But we probably shouldn’t be revealing that. In fact, we’re actually a little nervous, now that we’ve gone and disclosed the Astros’ most closely guarded secret.

So let’s make a deal. Don’t tell anyone we let you in on this. The Astros wouldn’t want to mess up their image – at least not until they’re wiping another barrage of World Series champagne out of their eyes.

 

[Beau Vine 54,292]

Gammons on the Red Sox as 108-win underdogs:

Quote

The Red Sox went into the postseason with 108 wins and with the swagger of a team that had clinched their October place in Yankee Stadium. Oh, it took a Craig Kimbrel adaption of Stephen King, but they won the ALDS on that Bronx ground, meaning that the last two times baseball’s Athens and Sparta had met in the postseason, the Red Sox had won the series sweeping the final two games in The Stadium(s).

But when that final Steve Pearce stretch allowed them to survive and move on, there was an edge to the celebration. Even Alex Cora, after surviving the excruciating bottom of the ninth inning Tuesday, said, “Even though after the first two games of the series was tied, it seemed most people thought we were underdogs. It seemed a little strange.” Xander Bogaerts, who speaks like a prime minister, said: “I think we surprised a lot of people.” And there were many other voices from the underground, with the backdrop of Sinatra and “New York, New York.”

The same will be true Saturday night, when the world champion Astros return to the site where, a year to the day before Chris Sale came out of the bullpen in Yankee Stadium, Houston clinched the American League Division Series on the grounds of The Fens. If the baseball media were to go to the polls, from Cambridge to Secaucus, D.C. to Silicon Valley to Durham, likely close to 55 percent of the checks on the “who’s the best team in baseball?” ballot question would be next to Houston.

These two teams have won 217 games between them, including the playoffs. The Red Sox led the American League in wins, runs, OBP, slugging percentage, OPS and stolen base percentage. The Astros led the league in Run Differential, ERA, strikeouts, Quality Starts and starters’ ERA.

The Red Sox have two of the expected top five MVP finishers in Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, the Astros one in Alex Bregman. The Red Sox have Chris Sale, whose Cy Young candidacy was sidelined by shoulder inflammation; the Astros have two top-five Cy Young candidates in Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, who also were 1-2 in the AL in strikeouts with 290 and 276, respectively, fresh for the month when power pitching has traditionally played best.

In the second half of the season, Houston added Roberto Osuna, former Red Sox farmhand Ryan Pressly and Josh James, huge power arms, to a pen that could also feature Lance McCullers Jr., and several other heroes of last October’s ride.

Before remembering back to Bregman’s homer off (reliever) Sale that tied the final ALDS game 3-3 last October 9, be aware that while Boston has Sale and David Price to start this weekend, Houston’s heavily right-handed lineup crushes left-handed pitching, leading the majors in OBP and OPS (.803 vs. LHP, .733 vs. RHP). What a place for the defending World Series MVP, George Springer, to return to — the park his father brought him as a kid growing up in Bristol, CT.

We get all that. When the Astros played in Fenway this September, they won the first two games 6-3 and 5-3. The Red Sox won the finale 6-5, and there was the sense that if this were college football, it would be a matchup of two SEC heavyweights.

Bregman maintained that if the Red Sox — who loved him as a prospect — had picked him in the first round, and not the 29^th because his father Sam wanted him to attend college, he would have signed. He even remembered that Boston took Deven Marrero in that first round. Of course he did; Bregman wore No. 30 at LSU because 30 teams passed on him in the first round. He now wears No. 2 because he was the second pick in the 2015 draft, when he believed he should have been first. “To Alex, everything in life is a challenge to be won,” says Oakland third baseman Matt Chapman, Bregman’s roommate on the 2013 Team USA All-Stars.

These two pitching staffs have four Cy Young winners between them, plus Sale and Cole, who may well be added to the list before they’re done. We shall simply enjoy every sandwich.

One of the byproducts of the way the Red Sox players perceived the coverage of their Yankee series is that they seemed to have developed a chip, the way the ’75 Red Sox — who had two HOFers in their everyday lineup (Carlton Fisk and Carl Yastrzemski), one who was hurt (Jim Rice) and two others (Dwight Evans, Luis Tiant) who many believe belong in Cooperstown — wore T-shirts reading “Underdogs” beneath their uniforms in the World series. Never underestimate the power of edge.

When Cora got Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier on flat ground in Game 4 in New York, and Rick Porcello and Sale strolled out of the bullpen to get five of the biggest outs of the series, that has a lasting effect. Or that Cora’s assurance that Price will step up and make the pitches he made most of their stretch run. Or that the trust and respect for Porcello — who is second in games started, third in wins, fourth in innings pitched among all MLB pitchers the last three seasons — carries.

Look, this is an important series in a season in which Boston ownership went all-in to win before free agency begins to strike. Their payroll is close to $240M, far and away the highest in the game, which comes with heavy taxes and draft penalties (to a team that is already looking at the development reloading process). Kimbrel, Joe Kelly, Drew Pomeranz, Ian Kinsler, Nathan Eovaldi and Pearce are free agents this November. And Price can opt out, if he so chooses.

After 2019, Sale, Porcello, Bogaerts, Brock Holt, Mitch Moreland and, if he opts out, Martinez are free agents. After 2020, Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr., can leave.

The Red Sox knew all this, of course. Sale was a great trade, an annual Cy Young contender and vehement competitor who is ever accountable, for a couple of online top prospects, one of whom is hurt, the other at a career crossroads. Kimbrel cost them a 2019 rookie starting pitcher (Logan Allen), a superb center fielder (Manny Margot), and has been a dominant three-year closer at a star level. Some reliever deals didn’t work out, but Eovaldi, Pearce and Kinsler have been major contributors to get them to this Astros series. In October, teams urgently play to win that day, then try to get up and do it again, amen.

And what they do from November to August 1 leads up to that.

No matter how silly it may seem outside of New England, beating the Yankees in Yankee Stadium meant something before the deluge of contract discussions; in the land of the Calvinistic clouds of self-doubt, as Roger Angell wrote, the fact that the Red Sox hadn’t won a playoff series since 2013 meant something.

Are the Astros the best team in baseball? Probably, although this October’s Dodgers may argue with that. But the Underdogs of 1975 were up 3-0 in the seventh game against a historically powerful Reds team in one of the greatest World Series of many of our lives. As Theo Epstein once reminded us, the 2003 Red Sox were better than the 2003 Yankees. Max Scherzer can tell you the 2013 Tigers were better than the 2013 Red Sox.

Dusty Rhodes just happens. Bernie Carbo just happens (and a kid from Millbury named Ron Darling almost caught that one). David Freese and Mookie Wilson and Marwin González just happen.

On October 9, 2017, we watched Verlander and Sale come out of their bullpens as middle relievers to try to carry their teams on to the next series.

Get up, and do it again.

 

[Beau Vine 54,292]

Jeff Sullivan on the Astros' hidden weapon, Ryan Pressly:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-most-unhittable-pitch-is-in-the-astros-bullpen/

Quote

There are a lot of pitchers, right? There are a lot of pitchers, and, therefore, there are a lot of relievers. Some of them have long been great. Some of them have more recently been great. Others have just kind of hung around. Many of them are relatively anonymous. Ryan Pressly has been one of the more anonymous ones. He’s been in the majors since 2013, but we’ve almost never written about him here. Rian Watt did change that a month ago. He wrote a whole article about Pressly, who was dealt from the Twins to the Astros near the end of July.

Watt focused a lot on Pressly’s curveball. He’s been leaning heavily on that pitch, especially since arriving in Houston. Pressly, who’s a righty, throws a four-seam fastball, a curveball, and a slider. It’s an interesting mix for a reliever to have, and it’s further interesting how easily Pressly goes from one pitch to another. He’s not a one-pitch specialist. He’s not a two-pitch specialist. He mixes. He likes everything he throws.

 

He throws that slider more than a quarter of the time. He’s had a slider for a while. Most pitchers have. But there’s something different and special about Pressly’s slider today. Absolutely, the curveball is important. The fastball’s important, too. It all works together. But Pressly’s slider in 2018 has been baseball’s single most unhittable pitch. That’s measured by how infrequently it’s been hit.

 

 

Since the season began, Pressly has thrown right around 300 sliders. So I looked through every individual pitch-type thrown at least 250 times. That gave me a sample of almost a thousand pitches to choose from. Here are the top ten pitches in baseball, by whiff rate. Not contact rate — this is the rate of pitches that got a swing and miss.

 

Most Unhittable Pitches

Pitcher	Pitch	Whiff%
Ryan Pressly	Slider	32.9%
Will Smith	Slider	30.5%
Patrick Corbin	Slider	30.2%
Jace Fry	Slider	30.0%
Tanner Scott	Slider	29.7%
Pedro Strop	Slider	29.1%
Edwin Diaz	Slider	29.1%
Seranthony Dominguez	Slider	27.9%
Hector Neris	Splitter	27.8%
Ken Giles	Slider	27.6%

SOURCE: Brooks Baseball

Minimum 250 thrown.

Here’s how to think about this: This season, when Pressly threw a slider, it resulted in a swing and miss almost a third of the time. For every three sliders, he got one whiff. That puts his slider in first place, and it’s in first place by multiple percentage points. It’s not easy to get that kind of spread. Look at the difference between, say, Smith’s slider and Diaz’s slider. All of these pitches have been effective, but none has missed bats like Pressly’s slider. And I’ll point out, for fun, when contact was made against the slider, almost everything was put on the ground. Just a real great pitch, that one.

 

Again, Pressly has thrown a slider for a while. It’s a hard slider, too, hovering around 90 miles per hour. The very idea of a breaking ball at 90 is almost unfair. Pressly’s slider this season got 33% whiffs. His slider last season got…15% whiffs. The season before that, 17% whiffs. What’s changed, as far as this pitch is concerned? It’s easy to point to one thing — Pressly has used the pitch differently. The heat maps give it away. Here are Pressly’s 2017 and 2018 sliders, viewed from the catcher’s perspective.

It might just be a matter of feel, but what you see on the right is more of what you want from a slider. The pitch has been thrown with consistency down and to the glove side. For a right-handed hitter, that’s a lethal slider low and away. For a left-handed hitter, that’s a back-foot slider at 90 ticks. Let’s hold there for a second. Here are Pressly’s whiff rates by pitch type, against lefties and lefties alone (via Brooks Baseball😞

You see the slider taking off. Lefties have had no answer for the pitch. That’s pretty uncommon for a right-handed slider, but you can observe Pressly’s progression. In 2016, facing lefties, Pressly’s K-BB% ranked in the 35th percentile among right-handed pitchers. In 2017, it ranked in the 55th percentile. And in 2018, it ranked in the 97th percentile. Pressly, in the past, was more of a run-of-the-mill reliever, a righty who could have success against most righties. This season, he’s taken the next step. He’s become a good pitcher against everyone, and he’s turned his slider into a featured pitch. The curveball might get more of the attention, but that slider has been a knockout.

There’s another usage change here. Pressly has aimed his sliders differently, but he’s also timed his sliders differently. In the past, when Pressly found himself in a two-strike count, he went to his slider about once for every ten pitches. This season, when Pressly has found himself in a two-strike count, he’s gone to his slider about once for every three pitches. And so the results are laughable: Pressly racked up 41 strikeouts on his slider. Over the five previous years *combined,* that total was 16. Pressly didn’t make dramatic changes to his slider, but by getting more comfortable with it, and by using it in a different manner, the pitch has turned into a preeminent weapon.

It’s about that time where I show you what the slider looks like. I’ve captured three videos from Pressly’s first ALDS appearance against the Indians. Here’s a whiff against Jose Ramirez:

Here’s a whiff against Yonder Alonso:

And here’s a called strike against Edwin Encarnacion:

That last one is important. The slider is a swing-and-miss pitch, but not exclusively. You can tell that Pressly controls his slider well. The sign of a great breaking pitch is one that can be thrown for a strike when you need it. That’s a slider Encarnacion would have to keep in the back of his mind when he’d think that Pressly was about to try to make him expand.

One real good pitch would be a hell of a starting point. For Pressly, it all comes together when you recognize he has a strong full repertoire. Here are his three pitches, expressed in terms of percentile ranks for their pitch-type-specific whiff rates.

Pressly has thrown the best swing-and-miss slider. His slider has been the best swing-and-miss anything. But he’s also thrown a swing-and-miss fastball and a swing-and-miss curveball. He’s done well to mix everything, never leaning too heavily on any one pitch in any one count. Pressly, in short, has three quality pitches, and he doesn’t throw them in easily observable patterns. So if I can show you one more plot, this is a pretty simple one, featuring everyone who threw at least 50 innings this year. On one axis, you’ve got strike rate. On the other axis, you’ve got contact rate. I’ve highlighted Pressly in yellow.

A strike-thrower who doesn’t get hit. We’re looking at 336 different pitchers. Pressly ranks 28th by strike rate, and third by contact rate. Those two dots right by him correspond to Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz. Two of the most dominant relievers in baseball. Ryan Pressly would therefore also stand to be one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. He’s just not widely recognized. But there’s little he’s not able to do. He’s able to retire any hitter you put up against him.

The Astros didn’t make major headlines when they swung the Pressly trade, and even now, with Pressly coming off an overwhelming second half, he doesn’t have close to the name recognition of many of his teammates. For the most part, even after a dominant season, Pressly remains one of those anonymous relievers. He might not be so anonymous by the end of the month. October is when so many stories get written. October is when you get the best chance to star in the spotlight. For as long as the Astros are around, Pressly’s going to be handed some critical innings. He has the full trust of his coaching staff, and it’s clear that he damn sure deserves it.

 

Edited October 12, 2018 by Beau Vine

[tx 3 putt 77,160]

Pressly - another great lunhow pick up 

[henrygandorf 29,194]

5 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Pressly - another great lunhow pick up 

pressly, maldonado, osuna.  the stros kept it pretty quiet, but may have made the perfect moves in late july.

[Telegraph_it 3,358]

Its like the guys running this thing know what they are doing. 

[mycox 582]

Ready for game 2 @ Fenway

[Mez2 4,024]

Bring us home a W

[Guest Lobo]

This is the World Series that should have happened 30 years ago.  

[Crusher 127]

3-fo-fo

[WBT 20,635]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

This is the World Series that should have happened 30 years ago.  

Game 1: Nolan vs Roger

Edited October 13, 2018 by WBT

[Guest Lobo]

Whoops, 32 years.  My maths were off. 

Amyway, I really wanted Sox & ‘Stros to face off in ‘86.  Fuck Ray Knight

[Guest]

Paul Revere and the Raiders

[Vic Mackey 47,089]

 

[Simon Honeybone 113]

1986 was definitely the year of heartbreak.

Rockets lost to the Celtics in the NBA Finals and of course the extra innings heartbreak against the Mets in the NLCS

[Underdog 28,745]

12 hours ago, mycox said:

Ready for game 2 @ Fenway

Just a wee bit early are you?  Sat in that general vicinity(closer to pole) when the ‘stros were there a couple of seasons ago, little tough on the neck to crank it a bit to see the action at the plate. 

[spystud13 2,371]

CF G. Springer R
2B Jose Altuve R
3B Alex Bregman R
1B Yuli Gurriel R
DH Tyler White R
LF M. Gonzalez B
SS C. Correa R
C M. Maldonado R
RF Josh Reddick L

RF Mookie Betts R
LF A. Benintendi L
DH J. Martinez R
SS X. Bogaerts R
1B Steve Pearce R
2B Brock Holt L
3B E. Nunez R
CF J. Bradley L
C Sandy Leon B

[dbecks 442]

Fuckin Pearce. Moreland needs to get healthy ASAP.