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CFB Playoff Chances

JBJ

By JBJ
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JBJ

JBJ 3829

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I'm not going to get into beauty contest yet, but these teams have good shots at going undefeated or 1-loss CCG winners.

In order, starting with most likely:

Don't mess this up group:

1) Ohio State - PSU was their hardest test of the season.  They should roll from here.  Michigan and CCG (Wisconsin?) Are the only real tests remaining. I don't see how they don't make it outside of complete collapse.

2) Clemson - NCSt, Duke, USCe, and CCG (Miami?) remain.  I don't expect them to go undefeated, but they should still be in? (75% if in with 1-loss, 45% if they need to be undefeated).

3) Notre Dame - VT, NWern, and Syracuse remain as real threats.  Should roll, if 1-loss ND makes the playoff, then move them to #1 because there aren't two losses here. (65%)

Toss-up group:

4) Alabama - Mizzou, LSU, Miss St, and CCG (Georgia?) remain.  They avoid real threats in the east, but there's still a loss in there. But 1-loss still goes if they win the CCG.  (50%)

5) West Virginia - Bulk of schedule still left plus one of those schools again.  The only reason they are this high is they might be able to drop one and still win the Big12 - unbeaten is unlikely. (45%)

6) Georgia - Florida, Kentucky, and CCG (Bama?) remain.  They might go undefeated, but I don't like their odds against Bama, and they won't get a rematch. (25%)

7) Colorado/Washington - One unbeaten and one needs to win out. They play in two weeks.  If Colorado loses in two weeks but beats them in the CCG, are they in? Washington needs to win out. (15% for each)

Need a prayer group:

Oklahoma, Texas, Miami, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Florida, Penn St, Duke. 

Argue until your face is blue that some of these teams are as good or better than the group above, but it's damn hard to win 7 conference games in a row unless you are in the PAC.

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George Clooney

George Clooney 378

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Right now, it seems inevitable that it'll four of Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Georgia. However, I just have a feeling only two-three of those are going to get in. We've seen it happen year after year where teams in really good spots just slip up or choke down the stretch. If I had to choose three of those teams to slip up, I'd choose Notre Dame, Georgia, and Clemson. Notre Dame really shouldn't lose any of their remaining games, but Brian Kelly has found ways to lose games when his team has looked great in the past. Georgia has a difficult schedule coming up, and I think they're a noticeably worse team than Bama at this point. Clemson looks good, and like ND, they shouldn't lose another game on their schedule. They've lost to much less talented teams in the past two years, and I think a bad loss could sink them this year (2016 Pitt, 2017 Cuse). I also don't feel great about Ohio State, and I think they could easily slip up too.

If I'm making a bold prediction right now, I'd pick Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and NC State. I really just don't want it to be Bama, Ohio St, Georgia, and Clemson because that would be boring.

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JBJ

JBJ 3829

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15 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I feel confident in predicting Alabama is going to win the national championship.

I hope I'm wrong.

They aren't the superteam ESPN makes them out to be. Their defensive front has taken a large step back this year.  They've been able to mask it so far by jumping out ahead and making teams throw the ball.  It'll catch up to them and three of those opponents have good rushing attacks.

Edited by JBJ
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sushihorn

sushihorn 3250

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UK's defense held aggy to 14 pts in regulation.  Bama gave up 23 to the same bunch.

Also the Tide's offense has become strangely dependent on big plays in the passing game.  Aggy is the closest thing they've played to a real defense and Bama was barely able to generate 100 rushing yards against them.  The second best defense UA has faced is likely Arkansas State.

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kopp0e

kopp0e 1135

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4 teams with the best possible shot of heading to the CFP:

Alabama- It's Alabama duh, but now with a high octane offense...

Ohio State- Who is there to compete with the Buckeyes, as the 3rd best team (Wisconsin) lost at home to BYU, and the 2nd best team (Penn State) made a failed run play on 4th & 5... After that, the B1G has nothing but a underperforming Michigan left to fight...

Notre Dame- Well, the Irish, if able to knock off the remaining games in the ACC & USC, will easily be in the CFP...

Georgia- Even with a loss in the SEC championship game, the Bulldogs are still worthy of inclusion...

4 wild cards: Washington/ Penn State/ Texas & Oklahoma...

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Atticus

Atticus 4225

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2 hours ago, sushihorn said:

UK's defense held aggy to 14 pts in regulation.  Bama gave up 23 to the same bunch.

Also the Tide's offense has become strangely dependent on big plays in the passing game.  Aggy is the closest thing they've played to a real defense and Bama was barely able to generate 100 rushing yards against them.  The second best defense UA has faced is likely Arkansas State.

Alabama has been coasting for the entire year, and it's likely that they have another gear they can go, but will they be able to turn it up when they need to?

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34740

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As of right now Alabama has their worst run defense of Saban's tenure, first season included.

http://www.adjustedstats.com/cfbteams.php?team=Alabama

For them that means it's merely a decent run defense, of course. They are #46 in adjusted total rushing per carry allowed. Here are their annual ranks:

2018: #46
2017: #1
2016: #1
2015: #2
2014: #2
2013: #3
2012: #1
2011: #1
2010: #7
2009: #1
2008: #2
2007: #23

I've heard people say Saban's critical comments of his defense were just to keep his team interested and focused. I disagree, he recognizes that they have a significant weakness as of right now.

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Treefidy

Treefidy 1507

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Just now, Huckleberry said:

As of right now Alabama has their worst run defense of Saban's tenure, first season included.

http://www.adjustedstats.com/cfbteams.php?team=Alabama

For them that means it's merely a decent run defense, of course. They are #46 in adjusted total rushing per carry allowed. Here are their annual ranks:

2018: #46
2017: #1
2016: #1
2015: #2
2014: #2
2013: #3
2012: #1
2011: #1
2010: #7
2009: #1
2008: #2
2007: #23

I've heard people say Saban's critical comments of his defense were just to keep his team interested and focused. I disagree, he recognizes that they have a significant weakness as of right now.

Those numbers are ridiculous.  

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RTF Horn

RTF Horn 46

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Alabama and Georgia will get in the playoff if they have 1 loss.  Ohio State also gets one freebie loss and Clemson probably does too.  Every other team, including ND, has to be perfect or they won't get in...unless one of the other four has 2 losses.  The CFP committee will bend over backwards to make sure a 1-loss Bama, OSU or Georgia get in without question.  Teams like ND, WV, Washington, Colorado don't get the same benefit of the doubt.  You either have to be perfect or hope someone else loses 2 games.

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Victor Lazlo

Victor Lazlo 1814

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, George Clooney said:

 

If I'm making a bold prediction right now, I'd pick Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and NC State. I really just don't want it to be Bama, Ohio St, Georgia, and Clemson because that would be boring.

N.C. State? That IS a bold prediction. 

Edited by Victor Lazlo
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Skipper

Skipper 6412

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This board was convinced we wouldn't make a Bowl after week 1.  Now we talking about Playoffs??  Let's tap the brakes and see if we can actually cover as a heavy favorite this week first (or at least win).  Something Herman almost never does. This team is very much still a work in progress.   A comfortable win against an inferior opponent would be a nice step but I wouldn't bet on it.

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El Squared

El Squared 1855

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17 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

As of right now Alabama has their worst run defense of Saban's tenure, first season included.

http://www.adjustedstats.com/cfbteams.php?team=Alabama

For them that means it's merely a decent run defense, of course. They are #46 in adjusted total rushing per carry allowed. Here are their annual ranks:

2018: #46
2017: #1
2016: #1
2015: #2
2014: #2
2013: #3
2012: #1
2011: #1
2010: #7
2009: #1
2008: #2
2007: #23

I've heard people say Saban's critical comments of his defense were just to keep his team interested and focused. I disagree, he recognizes that they have a significant weakness as of right now.

And this run defense has not faced super tough teams through the first half of the season.

It’s somewhat surprising no one is calling that out, but it’s  not cool to be critical of Bama in the mediasphere .

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34740

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4 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Lol at all the Bama doubters in here. That team is an absolute machine and they'll easily walk into the playoff undefeated. How much of those rushing yards are given up by the backups who start playing in the 2nd and 3rd quarter? 

Great point, that's probably why it's below the Top 10 for the first time since 2007 in his first season. All those Alabama teams between then and now weren't good so they didn't blow people out.

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Helobious

Helobious 9825

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1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

Great point, that's probably why it's below the Top 10 for the first time since 2007 in his first season. All those Alabama teams between then and now weren't good so they didn't blow people out.

I'm not out here saying their run defense is the best it's ever been, but it's not going to be the problem many think it is. They could have a straight up shitty defense and it might not matter much with how great their offense is. When you consider that their defense is far better than "shitty", I don't see how an undefeated season is unreasonable. 

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Luka Skywalker

Luka Skywalker 152

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5 minutes ago, TXs said:

I remember when '05 USC was the greatest team to walk the earth before they even played the game. I'll wait til the dust has settled before annointing Bama.

I think the difference this year is that there isn’t another dominant team with a transcendent talent ala Texas & VY.

Ohio State probably has the only chance to go toe to toe with Bama.

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Victor Lazlo

Victor Lazlo 1814

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1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

OU has an easier path to the playoffs on paper than we do...think about that before getting too excited.  

What the fuck are you talking about?

On paper? What, toilet paper?

They’ve got TX Tech , Okie St, WV-just like we do. Plus TCU. 

Oh, wait. That must be some sort of performance art type of schtick like Hank Scorpio. You can’t be that stupid. 

My bad. Sorry for doubting you. 

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Blanton

Blanton 170

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2 hours ago, TheFlagship said:

Give me a Big 12 title and a Sugar Bowl berth and I’d be more than happy with that. Not gonna lose any sleep over the CFP this year.

This man, this man right here keeps things in perspectice.

Raising hell on Bourbon Street during New Year’s Eve before the ‘Horns take the field under the Super Dome lights the following day.

(Ric Flair voice) Wooo!

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hornbri

hornbri 1511

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2 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

OU has an easier path to the playoffs on paper than we do...think about that before getting too excited.  

While I don’t think we will make the playoffs this statement does not make sense  

If we both win the rest of the scheduled games we play again. In that scenario, at this point, you would say we have the upper hand since we already showed we could beat them.

It feels like half this board keeps forgetting two out of WV, OU, and Texas are going to have to play each other twice. 

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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 25778

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While I don’t think we will make the playoffs this statement does not make sense   If we both win the rest of the scheduled games we play again. In that scenario, at this point, you would say we have the upper hand since we already showed we could beat them. It feels like half this board keeps forgetting two out of WV, OU, and Texas are going to have to play each other twice. 

 

 

 It’s not hard. Both schools need to win out. Assuming that they win out they have a loss to Texas (and perhaps a win over Texas if we are the champ game opponent).

 

If we win out we have a loss to MD.

 

Between those two who has the better “loss”

 

And that’s why given the fact we both have to win out they still have the easier path if they do it than we do.

 

 

 

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12661

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10 hours ago, Continental Op said:

Texas needs Notre Dame and every SEC team not named Alabama to lose 2 games. 

Not if Texas wins out.  A 13-1 Texas with two wins over OU will get in over that 11-1 ND every day.

I have a hard time seeing Texas or OU getting left out at 13-1, unless there are 4 undefeateds or 3 and a 1 loss Bama.

Then again, when you look at the remaining schedules of the unbeaten teams, it's hard to see anything that looks like a loss (besides the inevitable Bama/Georgia loss).

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Js1

Js1 87279

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9 hours ago, Luka Skywalker said:

We aren’t making the playoffs.  I love this 2018 squad probably second only to 2005. But again we are not making the playoffs.

????

2005, then 2008, then you can put 2018 there (prematurely, my dude).

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Katfid54

Katfid54 9005

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1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Not if Texas wins out.  A 13-1 Texas with two wins over OU will get in over that 11-1 ND every day. 

I have a hard time seeing Texas or OU getting left out at 13-1, unless there are 4 undefeateds or 3 and a 1 loss Bama.

Then again, when you look at the remaining schedules of the unbeaten teams, it's hard to see anything that looks like a loss (besides the inevitable Bama/Georgia loss).

How many games do you think teams in the Big XII play?

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Bevo14

Bevo14 8469

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15 hours ago, JBJ said:

They aren't the superteam ESPN makes them out to be. Their defensive front has taken a large step back this year.  They've been able to mask it so far by jumping out ahead and making teams throw the ball.  It'll catch up to them and three of those opponents have good rushing attacks.

They aren't, but who in that mediocre conference is going to beat them? It's not a given they'll go undefeated, but they have the best chance imo

Edited by Bevo14
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ztejas

ztejas 44280

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12 hours ago, El Squared said:

And this run defense has not faced super tough teams through the first half of the season.

It’s somewhat surprising no one is calling that out, but it’s  not cool to be critical of Bama in the mediasphere .

Yeah someone needs to call them out for kicking the shit out of every team on their schedule. Something just isn't adding up.

Edited by ztejas
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sushihorn

sushihorn 3250

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12 hours ago, Helobious said:

Lol at all the Bama doubters in here. That team is an absolute machine and they'll easily walk into the playoff undefeated. How much of those rushing yards are given up by the backups who start playing in the 2nd and 3rd quarter? 

We are comparing them to previous Bama defenses, not to OU's defense.  Saban played backups in mop up duty in prior years as well.

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