CFB Playoff Chances

[Spankytoes 1,743]

12 hours ago, TheFlagship said:

Give me a Big 12 title and a Sugar Bowl berth and I’d be more than happy with that. Not gonna lose any sleep over the CFP this year.

This. If we win 10 games and get a good bowl, I'm happy. We don't have the team to win it all this year anyway. Next year, we'll be a little more seasoned to make a run. At the very least, we should be one of the 2 teams in the Big 12 CCG based on the remaining opponents.

[UTEX_ME 4,766]

lulz at everyone trying to find something wrong with Alabama. They've pulled starters every game this year. 

[BigBenBamboozle 1,957]

10 wins and a great bowl game matchup and we should be thrilled as a fanbase.  'Bama withstanding, everyone is jumping to conclusions far too early with playoff predictions.  Undefeated teams lose late in Oct/Nov every year.  There's still a shakeup weekend at some point this season. 

[Xcalibur 546]

Not sure why we are even discussing the CFP.  We aren't good enough to win the NCG this season (that will be Bama).  

And LOL at the people who think Bama has a weakness or isn't the clear best team this season-- Bama, this year, is better than 2005 Texas.  And I don't say that lightly.  Bama already had NFL talent at every position going into this season--but now they also have a VYesque quarterback.  Every single game Bama has played this year has been over at the half.  Bama has also covered the ENTIRE GAME's spread at the half in each of their games so far.  The reason Bama has not covered every spread this season at the end of a few of their games, is because opposing teams have been able to score against Bama's walk ons.

Our best, realistic, goal this year is to win the Big 12 (which will be a difficult challenge in itself) and make it to a New Years Six bowl game.  I am confident that we will appear in the Big 12 CCG this year.  I am not so confident that we win the rematch against the WVU/OU winner.

 

 

 

 

[Pig Bellmont 8,738]

Half the season to go plus conference championship weekend and everyone has gotten pretty far over their skis. A lot of football left and some road games we have to overcome before we start handwringing over who is getting left out 

[chase25 2,048]

5 minutes ago, Xcalibur said:

Not sure why we are even discussing the CFP.  We aren't good enough to win the NCG this season (that will be Bama).  

And LOL at the people who think Bama has a weakness or isn't the clear best team this season-- Bama, this year, is better than 2005 Texas.  And I don't say that lightly.  Bama already had NFL talent at every position going into this season--but now they also have a VYesque quarterback.  Every single game Bama has played this year has been over at the half.  Bama has also covered the ENTIRE GAME's spread at the half in each of their games so far.  The reason Bama has not covered every spread this season at the end of a few of their games, is because opposing teams have been able to score against Bama's walk ons.

Our best, realistic, goal this year is to win the Big 12 (which will be a difficult challenge in itself) and make it to a New Years Six bowl game.  I am confident that we will appear in the Big 12 CCG this year.  I am not so confident that we win the rematch against the WVU/OU winner.

 

 

 

 

Slow you roll buddy, slow your roll. Lets hold off on anointing Tua as VYesque because he lit up Louisville (that got taken to the woodshed by Georgia Tech), Arkansas State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, ULL, and Arkansas... Oh and guess what slobber knocker they have lined up this week? Wait for it.. Missouri... Who lost to Muschamp and his back up QB.

Give me our '05 team against this Bama team everyday of the week. They are good but they ain't that good, they are just the best team this season. Bama's opponents this season have an overall W/L record of 16-14 if you take our all of their losses to Bama and their best wins are Kentucky and Texas Tech.

USC was a foregone conclusion to win it in 2005, nobody is a guarantee to win anything. The risk you run by doing what Alabama is doing is what happens the first time they get hit in the mouth? Do they respond? We'll see. Our '05 team did the same thing that this Bama team has done up to this point, only difference is we actually got tested on the road against #4 Ohio State week 2 of the season. Alabama's pretty much played a bunch of sacrificial lambs with the exception of aggy who they got in Tuscaloosa.

[AUS-97HORN 11,823]

I see no reason to get excited for the playoff as a Texas fan.   The BCS has made crystal fucking clear that Texas is only allowed to go to the BCS if we are undefeated.

Since 2003, Texas has had two single loss pre-bowl seasons, NEITHER time were we invited to the BCS Championship. Although 2004 can be explained due to there being three undefeated teams.   

Meanwhile, Oklahoma is always allowed to go with 1 loss, no matter how bad or to who.

since 2003, Oklahoma has had a single loss pre-bowl season 4 times.  ALL FOUR SEASONS, they played in either the BCS Championship, or the Playoff with 1 loss.

Two of those times,  Okie's single loss was against Texas, including our wretched 5-6  2015 season team,  another time was the 2003 version of Oklahoma who got fucking DESTROYED in the Conf Championship game by K-State, yet they were given the chance to play for the title in their very next game.  and the 4th example, they lost AT HOME to 7-5 Iowa State.

Each and every fucking time, the BCS made mental gymnastic moves to let Oklahoma in with 1 loss.

Meanwhile, unless we go undefeated.... we arent going to the fucking playoff.

[MinnesotaHorn 29]

30 minutes ago, Xcalibur said:

Bama, this year, is better than 2005 Texas.  And I don't say that lightly.  Bama already had NFL talent at every position going into this season--but now they also have a VYesque quarterback.

You trumpet your cuckism proudly. Of course any comparison of those two teams is completely subjective but making such a claim less than halfway through the season is silly and mewling as a Texas fan.  Try to keep retain some fucking dignity.

Edited October 11, 2018 by MinnesotaHorn

[Spankytoes 1,743]

32 minutes ago, Xcalibur said:

Not sure why we are even discussing the CFP.  We aren't good enough to win the NCG this season (that will be Bama).  

And LOL at the people who think Bama has a weakness or isn't the clear best team this season-- Bama, this year, is better than 2005 Texas.  And I don't say that lightly.  Bama already had NFL talent at every position going into this season--but now they also have a VYesque quarterback.  Every single game Bama has played this year has been over at the half.  Bama has also covered the ENTIRE GAME's spread at the half in each of their games so far.  The reason Bama has not covered every spread this season at the end of a few of their games, is because opposing teams have been able to score against Bama's walk ons.

Our best, realistic, goal this year is to win the Big 12 (which will be a difficult challenge in itself) and make it to a New Years Six bowl game.  I am confident that we will appear in the Big 12 CCG this year.  I am not so confident that we win the rematch against the WVU/OU winner.

 

 

 

 

Pretty bold take considering Bama hasn't played anyone yet. Their best win is over aggy. Not exactly pulling out a win at The Shoe (at night!).

[Xcalibur 546]

Alright, you all have good points.. I admit I spoke too soon.  I can't say that this year's Bama is better than 2005 Texas.  But boy, does this year's Bama sure remind me of 2005 Texas.  And 2005 Texas was the best and is the best college football team I have ever seen.

[G650 14,277]

People are seriously not in touch with how good Alabama's offense is. They could not even field a defense and win.

[Huckleberry 33,095]

It's about as good as Oklahoma's, how did that work out for the Sooners?

[G650 14,277]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

It's about as good as Oklahoma's, how did that work out for the Sooners?

I count OU as actually having a negative number at defense.

[Huckleberry 33,095]

As for 2018 Alabama compared to 2005 Texas, here are the power rating ranks of their first six opponents:

2005 Texas - 105, 3, 104, 53, 23, 36
2018 Alabama - 108, 82, 48, 18, 110, 97

They are destroying everyone because they have played a completely shittastic schedule so far. It's obviously not their fault that Louisville and Arkansas are terrible football teams instead of their mediocre-to-decent norms, but that's what they are this season.

[sushihorn 3,233]

1 hour ago, ztejas said:

Yeah someone needs to call them out for kicking the shit out of every team on their schedule. Something just isn't adding up.

EVERY team has weaknesses.  Our great 2005 team had a merely above average passer, mediocre WRs and LBs who tended to overpursue and were vulnerable to misdirection.  They simply covered those weaknesses with even bigger strengths elsewhere.  I see neither harm nor some failing as a fan in discussing those weaknesses WRT 2018 Alabama.

[joeycovers 391]

1 hour ago, Xcalibur said:

Bama has also covered the ENTIRE GAME's spread at the half in each of their games so far.  The reason Bama has not covered every spread this season at the end of a few of their games, is because opposing teams have been able to score against Bama's walk ons.

 

 

 

 

 

That's not true. They were not covering entire spread vs ATM at half. Just wanted to point that out. Carry on

[Huckleberry 33,095]

1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

EVERY team has weaknesses.  Our great 2005 team had a merely above average passer, mediocre WRs and LBs who tended to overpursue and were vulnerable to misdirection.  They simply covered those weaknesses with even bigger strengths elsewhere.  I see neither harm nor some failing as a fan in discussing those weaknesses WRT 2018 Alabama.

Our merely above average passer had the highest passing efficiency rating in the entire nation at the end of the regular season.

[joeycovers 391]

4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

As for 2018 Alabama compared to 2005 Texas, here are the power rating ranks of their first six opponents:

2005 Texas - 105, 3, 104, 53, 23, 36
2018 Alabama - 108, 82, 48, 18, 110, 97

They are destroying everyone because they have played a completely shittastic schedule so far. It's obviously not their fault that Louisville and Arkansas are terrible football teams instead of their mediocre-to-decent norms, but that's what they are this season.

It's not going to improve that much either until they play UGA. Its possible they will go entire reg season only facing one ranked team (ATM)

[sushihorn 3,233]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

Our merely above average passer had the highest passing efficiency rating in the entire nation at the end of the regular season.

Sure.  Because the way we covered up that weakness was to suck the LBs and safeties up in run support because VY was a transcendent threat on the ground.  He was constantly throwing against single coverage on the outside and zone coverage isn't that effective when everyone focuses on the QB rather than the man running through their zone.  Also, one of the pass-catching TEs I've ever seen at the college level made a nice safety blanket, especially against LBs who were looking somewhere else.

[ztejas 43,534]

9 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Our great 2005 team had a merely above average passer

[ztejas 43,534]

17 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Our merely above average passer had the highest passing efficiency rating in the entire nation at the end of the regular season.

He led the fucking NFL in passer rating for a season...

 

How quickly they forget

[Wally Fairway 5,586]

17 hours ago, JBJ said:

Need a prayer group:

Oklahoma, Texas, Miami, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Florida, Penn St, Duke. 

 

I read the entire post by the OP, and I thought it was well thought out until he included Duke.

Duke has won against Army, Northwestern, Baylor and North Carolina Central, and they LOST to Vat Tech (who lost to Old Dominion)> Duke still has to play @Pitt, @Miami and @Clemson. They are more likely to not make a bowl game than they are to go to the playoffs.

[sushihorn 3,233]

4 minutes ago, ztejas said:

He led the fucking NFL in passer rating for a season...

 

How quickly they forget

VY could make opposing secondaries cover downfield for 6-8 seconds while being forced to keep one eye on the backfield..  That doesn't make him a better passer than Drew Brees.  To see what happened when he had to function as a pure passer, look at the results when his idiot coach forced him to sit in the pocket.

Edited October 11, 2018 by sushihorn

[Tex Long 4,445]

As noted, if we win out, we're sitting at 12-1 and likely close to or even in the top four group in the Beauty Contest. I think the CFB world in general sees a resurgent Texas as a Good Thing, and we will get in.

If we win out - which is a hell of a lot more coulda than it is a shoulda - we're in. You may doubt it, but I don't.

It could happen. I'll be damn surprised, but it's a Definite Maybe.

[Huckleberry 33,095]

21 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Sure.  Because the way we covered up that weakness was to suck the LBs and safeties up in run support because VY was a transcendent threat on the ground.  He was constantly throwing against single coverage on the outside and zone coverage isn't that effective when everyone focuses on the QB rather than the man running through their zone.  Also, one of the pass-catching TEs I've ever seen at the college level made a nice safety blanket, especially against LBs who were looking somewhere else.

That wasn't "we", that was him. VY sucked up those defenders, and he was a great college passer specifically because of it. His best traits throwing the ball were deep balls and finding guys breaking open when he was on the move. Exactly what you'd want from a running threat. It's just silly to call him a merely above average passer.

[Huckleberry 33,095]

6 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

VY could make opposing secondaries cover downfield for 6-8 seconds while being forced to keep one eye on the backfield..  That doesn't make him a better passer than Drew Brees.  To see what happened when he had to function as a pure passer, look at the results when his idiot coach forced him to sit in the pocket.

Well when his idiot NFL coach did that he posted a 98.6 passer rating in his last season as the starter.

His struggles from the pocket in college had more to do with the atrocious design of the passing game than his shortcomings as a passer. VY dropped dimes in high school and he dropped dimes in college.

Edited October 11, 2018 by Huckleberry

[G650 14,277]

37 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

As for 2018 Alabama compared to 2005 Texas, here are the power rating ranks of their first six opponents:

2005 Texas - 105, 3, 104, 53, 23, 36
2018 Alabama - 108, 82, 48, 18, 110, 97

They are destroying everyone because they have played a completely shittastic schedule so far. It's obviously not their fault that Louisville and Arkansas are terrible football teams instead of their mediocre-to-decent norms, but that's what they are this season.

That's all well and good, but it's not telling the story. Pro style passing efficiency from Tua this year is something I haven't seen in college in many, many years.

Someone did a comparison of Tua's passing stats against the ten most recent QB Heisman winners, with Tua's first six games, versus the other six BEST games. And it needs to be reiterated that it was against the six BEST games of the others, which are coming against just as scrubby of defenses as Alabama has played this year. It's eye popping.

Does OU have a good offense? Sure, but it's nowhere near as efficient as Alabama through the air, and is built much more heavily on Kyler Murray running.

 

I mean, Alabama can lose obviously. Anyone can. But I have not seen this kind of passing game in college since I don't even remember when. It's a totally different animal than the TTU or OSU toss it around deal.

 

Edit: VY was a great passer too. I don't know why anyone in this thread is arguing otherwise.

Edited October 11, 2018 by G650

[ztejas 43,534]

39 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

VY could make opposing secondaries cover downfield for 6-8 seconds while being forced to keep one eye on the backfield..  That doesn't make him a better passer than Drew Brees.  To see what happened when he had to function as a pure passer, look at the results when his idiot coach forced him to sit in the pocket.

The idiot is you my friend. 

No one mentioned Drew Brees. 

[sushihorn 3,233]

Just now, ztejas said:

The idiot is you my friend. 

No one mentioned Drew Brees. 

You brought #1 QB rating into the discussion.  It's VERY easy to get to Drew Brees from there.  It's not 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon.

[ztejas 43,534]

3 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

You brought #1 QB rating into the discussion.  It's VERY easy to get to Drew Brees from there.  It's not 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon.

Passing rating, actually. No one is comparing him to Drew Brees. Stay on topic champ. 

[sushihorn 3,233]

5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Passing rating, actually. No one is comparing him to Drew Brees. Stay on topic champ. 

I'm attempting to illustrate a point using an individual case.  Having the highest rating doesn't make you the best passer.  VY vs Drew Brees is a perfect illustration of that point.  I'd think it was obvious and it's bothersome to have to explain something that should be self-evident.

Edited October 11, 2018 by sushihorn

[RoyalBevo21 792]

 

1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

Sure.  Because the way we covered up that weakness was to suck the LBs and safeties up in run support because VY was a transcendent threat on the ground.  He was constantly throwing against single coverage on the outside and zone coverage isn't that effective when everyone focuses on the QB rather than the man running through their zone.  Also, one of the pass-catching TEs I've ever seen at the college level made a nice safety blanket, especially against LBs who were looking somewhere else.

Holy shit there are some craptastic takes on the 2005 Longhorns in here. Do you even football bro? First off it's clear when you talk about talent, you're basing it off of what happened in the NFL. Billy Pittman, Limas Sweed, and Romance Taylor weren't average D1 receivers any way you slice it. The 2005 Texas offense was a points scoring juggernaut that had Vince came back in 2006 would've been even better. The only team that was able to slow down Texas was Ohio St. that had a defense filled with NFL talent and even that wasn't enough. Yes, David Thomas was an incredibly Tight End. Yes, the Linebackers were probably just above average. 

With Jamaal, Vince, Romance, and Selvin Young toting the rock. And Huff, Griffin, Griffin, and Ross as the DB's not too mention having Tarell Brown as a nickel 2005 Texas wins this game going away. 

Texas 42

Bama 24

[DeweyCox 366]

3 minutes ago, RoyalBevo21 said:

 

Holy shit there are some craptastic takes on the 2005 Longhorns in here. Do you even football bro? First off it's clear when you talk about talent, you're basing it off of what happened in the NFL. Billy Pittman, Limas Sweed, and Romance Taylor weren't average D1 receivers any way you slice it. The 2005 Texas offense was a points scoring juggernaut that had Vince came back in 2006 would've been even better. The only team that was able to slow down Texas was Ohio St. that had a defense filled with NFL talent and even that wasn't enough. Yes, David Thomas was an incredibly Tight End. Yes, the Linebackers were probably just above average. 

With Jamaal, Vince, Romance, and Selvin Young toting the rock. And Huff, Griffin, Griffin, and Ross as the DB's not too mention having Tarell Brown as a nickel 2005 Texas wins this game going away. 

Texas 42

Bama 24

Gay

[sushihorn 3,233]

2 minutes ago, RoyalBevo21 said:

 

Holy shit there are some craptastic takes on the 2005 Longhorns in here. Do you even football bro? First off it's clear when you talk about talent, you're basing it off of what happened in the NFL. Billy Pittman, Limas Sweed, and Romance Taylor weren't average D1 receivers any way you slice it. The 2005 Texas offense was a points scoring juggernaut that had Vince came back in 2006 would've been even better. The only team that was able to slow down Texas was Ohio St. that had a defense filled with NFL talent and even that wasn't enough. Yes, David Thomas was an incredibly Tight End. Yes, the Linebackers were probably just above average. 

With Jamaal, Vince, Romance, and Selvin Young toting the rock. And Huff, Griffin, Griffin, and Ross as the DB's not too mention having Tarell Brown as a nickel 2005 Texas wins this game going away. 

Texas 42

Bama 24

I'm confused about what or whom you're responding to.  I didn't even compare 2005 Texas to 2018 Alabama.  At no point did I suggest, much less state that the VY led Longhorns would lose to the current Tide squad.  Please go back and read again.

[El Squared 1,813]

2 hours ago, ztejas said:

Yeah someone needs to call them out for kicking the shit out of every team on their schedule. Something just isn't adding up.

You are so right, I don't know what I was thinking.

Bama has beaten the shit out of:

1. Louisville (2-4)

2. Ark State (3-3, 0-2 conf)

3.Ole Miss (4-2, 0-2 conf)

4.aggy (4-2, 2-1 conf)

5. La Lafayette (2-3)

6. piggy (1-5)

 

2 teams with a winning record, and teams that everyone else with a pulse seems to also beat the shit out of.

Point is , this all world anointed team hasn't exactly run the gauntlet. But they do have Citadel (1-3) looming, so there's that.

 

[Pig Bellmont 8,738]

Didn’t I log in to a Bama board? Wtf is going on here?  Yes they are good. Yes, it is way too fucking early to compare them to 2005 Texas. Jesus. It’s like playing cards with my brothers kids

[RoyalBevo21 792]

9 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

I'm confused about what or whom you're responding to.  I didn't even compare 2005 Texas to 2018 Alabama.  At no point did I suggest, much less state that the VY led Longhorns would lose to the current Tide squad.  Please go back and read again.

My fault, got you and xcalibur mixed up. Your talent evaluation still applies though. 

[sushihorn 3,233]

13 minutes ago, RoyalBevo21 said:

My fault, got you and xcalibur mixed up. Your talent evaluation still applies though. 

That's fine.  I will simply say that what happened in the NFL is the best way to filter the effect of them being wide open because their QB was such a running threat from how talented they actually were as WRs.

[fellside 1,114]

Ohio State lost to (I think) a 6 loss Virginia Tech team a few years ago and still made it in.  I would say that's the best sign for Texas, but the committee has shown no consistent pattern of voting and seem to change their process every year.  The only consistent is that Ohio State is allowed a free spot in the playoffs if they look good.

Oklahoma, West Virginia and TCU will all be ranked at the end of the year.  USC and Tech might be as well.

Finishing 12-1 with 12 straight wins and wins over 4 or 5 ranked opponents, including an extra win against top 15 WVU or OU will be enough to get Texas a spot.  It just will.  I doubt we win 12 in a row though.

[Blanton 170]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

I read the entire post by the OP, and I thought it was well thought out until he included Duke.

Duke has won against Army, Northwestern, Baylor and North Carolina Central, and they LOST to Vat Tech (who lost to Old Dominion)> Duke still has to play @Pitt, @Miami and @Clemson. They are more likely to not make a bowl game than they are to go to the playoffs.

I’d love to see Duke make the playoffs.

Would be a giant middle finger to Southeatern football. 

[ztejas 43,534]

49 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

I'm attempting to illustrate a point using an individual case.  Having the highest rating doesn't make you the best passer.  VY vs Drew Brees is a perfect illustration of that point.  I'd think it was obvious and it's bothersome to have to explain something that should be self-evident.

I didn't say he was the best passer you fucking clown. I'm arguing against your take of "above average". He was cut and dry a great if not elite passer in college and was able to find (albeit limited) success in the NFL throwing the rock. 

Go find a brick wall to talk to if you want to keep moving the goalposts to cover for the stupid bullshit you spouted earlier. 

[ztejas 43,534]

18 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

That's fine.  I will simply say that what happened in the NFL is the best way to filter the effect of them being wide open because their QB was such a running threat from how talented they actually were as WRs.

Ramonce was a headcase, Sweed suffered injury issues as well as personal issues that kept him from ever being a relevant NFL receiver, and Pittman wasn't fast enough to be an NFL threat. 

 

What the fuck any of that has to do with their play in college is beyond me. You are so far off the map right now I'm questioning if you even watched the 05 Horns. In person I watched that team score 56 points in a HALF of football. That tells me that MULTIPLE players must have been pretty damn good on that offense. 

Edited October 11, 2018 by ztejas

[ShowmeyourTDs 1,141]

2 hours ago, joeycovers said:

It's not going to improve that much either until they play UGA. Its possible they will go entire reg season only facing one ranked team (ATM)

Do you even SEC and AP ranking bro?  Alabama will end up playing 3 more ranked opponents still.

[sushihorn 3,233]

38 minutes ago, ztejas said:

What the fuck any of that has to do with their play in college is beyond me. You are so far off the map right now I'm questioning if you even watched the 05 Horns. In person I watched that team score 56 points in a HALF of football. That tells me that MULTIPLE players must have been pretty damn good on that offense. 

I don't disagree with that part at all.  I'd say VY, Studdard, Thomas and possibly Sendlein all meet that description.  The OL as a whole was excellent in 2005 and other than VY was the strength of the offense.  Receivers and backs benefited from that excellence.

[Buzzrock 14,940]

Georgia Tech will beat Georgia. Take it to the b-a-n-c-k.

[ztejas 43,534]

1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

I don't disagree with that part at all.  I'd say VY, Studdard, Thomas and possibly Sendlein all meet that description.  The OL as a whole was excellent in 2005 and other than VY was the strength of the offense.  Receivers and backs benefited from that excellence.

You don't set the FBS scoring record with average skill position players. You just don't.

End of argument. Go pour a drink.

[hornbri 1,403]

8 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

 It’s not hard. Both schools need to win out. Assuming that they win out they have a loss to Texas (and perhaps a win over Texas if we are the champ game opponent).

 

If we win out we have a loss to MD.

 

Between those two who has the better “loss”

 

And that’s why given the fact we both have to win out they still have the easier path if they do it than we do.

 

 

 

The point is both schools cannot win out! If we win out we have 1 loss and they have a min of 2 losses (either to us again or someone else along the way that prevented them from going to the CCG). 

[joeycovers 391]

Here is what i feel needs to happen for UT to make playoffs.

1. UT win out

2.OU, TCU, or WVU play in the B12 Championship with no more than 2 losses. 

3. Maryland win 6 or more games

4. USC have no more than 4 losses. 

5.  1 of the following teams must lose a game. Clemson, Domers, Bucks

In my opinion a 1 loss UT gets in over every other 1 loss team including a 1 loss SEC title game loser. 

The absolute biggest game for UT this year that it is not involved in is ND @ SC.  If Sc Wins that I think that could secure our spot.

[Surly Bevo 25,149]

The point is both schools cannot win out! If we win out we have 1 loss and they have a min of 2 losses (either to us again or someone else along the way that prevented them from going to the CCG). 

 

I completely understand that. You are missing the point that if somebody asked.

 

OU wins out what are the odds they make the CFP?

 

Or they asked

 

Texas wins out what are their odds of making the CFP?

 

That any reasonable answer would be that in that either or scenario that OU has the better odds. Hence in the win out scenario that they both have to achieve OU has the easier path if they achieve it.

 

Everybody understands that they both have to win out and that they both can’t win out...this isn’t 1st grade.

 

[TXSooner518 2,438]

3 hours ago, fellside said:

Ohio State lost to (I think) a 6 loss Virginia Tech team a few years ago and still made it in.  I would say that's the best sign for Texas, but the committee has shown no consistent pattern of voting and seem to change their process every year.  The only consistent is that Ohio State is allowed a free spot in the playoffs if they look good.

A 1-loss Ohio State was left out in 2015, and a Big Ten champ Ohio State was left out in 2017.

12-1 Texas would be very very hard to keep out of the playoffs. It would require an unbeaten Clemson, unbeaten ND, unbeaten tOSU and unbeaten SEC champion.