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CFB Playoff Chances

JBJ

By JBJ
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Katfid54

Katfid54 8593

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

Here is what i feel needs to happen for UT to make playoffs.

1. UT win out

2.OU, TCU, or WVU play in the B12 Championship with no more than 2 losses. 

3. Maryland win 6 or more games

4. USC have no more than 4 losses. 

5.  1 of the following teams must lose a game. Clemson, Domers, Bucks

In my opinion a 1 loss UT gets in over every other 1 loss team including a 1 loss SEC title game loser. 

The absolute biggest game for UT this year that it is not involved in is ND @ SC.  If Sc Wins that I think that could secure our spot.

This entire discussion is ridiculously premature.

With that said, assuming they don't get bit by the injury bug (which has been a problem for them in the past), I have a hard time believing that Maryland won't win at least 7 games this year.  They're already 4-2.  Their remaining games are against Rutgers (literally the worst FBS team), Iowa (probably an L, but stranger things have happened), Illinois (S&P+ gives Maryland a 70% chance to beat Illinois), Michigan State (assume it's an L, although they lost to a poor Northwestern team last weekend), Indiana (who they get at home), and then tOSU and Penn state.

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JBJ

JBJ 3649

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Posted (edited)

The "Need a Prayer" as it applies to TX, OU, and really that entire group is winning out.  If any of those teams win out, they are going to be in.

The prayer part is actually winning out.  It's way too early to get into the beauty contest. 

How many teams did I mention in the OP? 15?  It'll be half that in two weeks.

Edited by JBJ
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Vic Mackey

Vic Mackey 46936

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19 hours ago, Luka Skywalker said:

I like this team more than 2008 squad.

I love this team's heart and effort and the way we are changing the culture but that 2008 team was so much fun. I think that was a better team than 2009. We seemed to go through the motions that year, especially in the OU game. 2008 they were on a fucking mission until we got screwed at the end.

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gmr548

gmr548 16517

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Posted
I like this team more than 2008 squad.
This team will be fun to talk about in hindsight, particularly if they finish what they've started and get to 10 wins, play for the conference, and win a good bowl. In the moment they are frustrating and stressful though.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Surlybastard

Surlybastard 65

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37 minutes ago, housious said:

Are you trying to say we should be ranked ahead of Georgia?

Polls have always been what have you done for me lately up until 5-10 years ago when suddenly sec teams started getting free passes for losing to any other sec team with a ranking. Georgia just got waxed from start to finish by a good but not by any means great lsu team. Texas lost in week 1. So yes Georgia should drop down to about 8-10 while Texas should be ahead of them. Not only that but Georgia doesn't have a single win of any significance so far this year. They deserve to drop like a fucking rock even though they won't. 

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Magus Ossis

Magus Ossis 2784

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Teams that are in by winning out:

‘Bama/LSU, tOSU/Michigan, ND, Clemson

If Bama has one respectable loss to LSU or maybe even in the CCG, they are likely still in. I don’t think tOSU has been dominant enough to get in with a late-season loss. Our best chance, therefore, is a Clemson or ND stumble. And a fast/complete Sam recovery.

IF we win out, we would be next in line after those teams. Would we get stomped? Is it remotely possible? That I can’t say.

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JBJ

JBJ 3649

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This was an upset week.  Many of the mid-tier have fallen.  The P12 screwed itself hard.

 

Lots of movement:

1) Clemson 75%

2) Alabama 70% - One minor test down, the SEC East seems like it still sucks and will provide no challenge.

3) Ohio State 65% - Lowered their chances because Michigan should have a decent chance to muck things up.

4) Notre Dame 50% - I really hope they lose, this is not a great team and shouldn't be near the playoffs.

5) Oklahoma 25% - the path is opening for them to backdoor this thing.

------

Everyone else (<10%): NCSt, Duke, Michigan, Iowa, Texas, WVU, Oregon, Wazzu, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU.

Edited by JBJ
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JBJ

JBJ 3649

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This week: Clemson convincingly won the hardest game on their schedule.  Ohio State completely melts down.  Alabama and Notre Dame win easy games.  Duke, Colorado, and Oregon are officially out of the chase.

1) Clemson 95% (+++)

2) Alabama 70% (no change)

3) Notre Dame 50% (no change)

4) Oklahoma 30% (+)

------

Everyone else (in order this week): Michigan, Ohio St, Iowa, NC St, LSU, Georgia, Wazzu, WVU, Kentucky, Florida, Texas.

Edited by JBJ
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TXSooner518

TXSooner518 2432

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Uh, yeah, Notre Dame's game vs. BYE was pretty easy.

Also LOLOLOL at Alabama having a 70% chance at the playoffs.  I will put up $300 to your $100, I win the $400 if Bama makes it, you win if they don't.  Clemson is not 95% to win out, and if they don't win out, they are in huge trouble, so they aren't near 95%.

Your in order rankings are absolutely absurd and awful.  NCSU has a literal 0% chance to make the playoff, and you have them ahead of LSU and UGA which both have a 100% to be in if they win out, and Texas, which is 90% in if they win out.

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satyanash

satyanash 14281

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We have something like a ~2.7% chance of winning out the regular season per S&P+. And even if we do so, there's a likely Big 12 CCG rematch with blOU...

...and even if we win THAT, we still get left out if Bama/Clemson/ND/Michigan run the table from here on out. The odds are long, fellas.

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WBT

WBT 20422

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1 minute ago, Tired of Lurking said:

Totally understand that, satya. What I don't understand is how OU continually has this "better percentage" considering we have the same overall record, a better conference record, and own the tiebreak over them. The percentages between us and OU don't make any sense.

The projections like them better than us.  Other than army, all of their wins have been blowouts (next closest the 10 point win over iowa state) while we've eked out one score wins over some mediocre teams.  We also lost to a worse team than they did.  Therefore it gives them a better chance of winning out and a better chance of winning the ccg.  One game doesn't overrule the rest of the season's worth of data.  Against common opponents (both home for UT and on the road for OU):

UT 23 BU 17, OU 66 BU 33

UT 31 TCU 16, OU 52, TCU 27

The good news is that we can lose 1 and probably 2 and still make the ccg.  If it's against OU I think we'd have a good shot to beat them again and go to the Sugar.

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gmr548

gmr548 16517

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Totally understand that, satya. What I don't understand is how OU continually has this "better percentage" considering we have the same overall record, a better conference record, and own the tiebreak over them. The percentages between us and OU don't make any sense.
Essentially it's that OU is considered far more likely to go 12-1 than Texas is. Not that, as it stands today, 6-1 OU has a better resume than 6-1 Texas.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders 1332

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1 hour ago, satyanash said:

We have something like a ~2.7% chance of winning out the regular season per S&P+. And even if we do so, there's a likely Big 12 CCG rematch with blOU...

...and even if we win THAT, we still get left out if Bama/Clemson/ND/Michigan run the table from here on out. The odds are long, fellas.

Agree that the odds are low that Texas wins out, but the odds of Bama/Clemson/ND and Mich winning out is lower.  If we somehow win out we are likely in.

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Colonel Sanders said:

Agree that the odds are low that Texas wins out, but the odds of Bama/Clemson/ND and Mich winning out is lower.  If we somehow win out we are likely in.

Ditto that. We play five games, win them all, I like our chances. Still gotta win the CCG, that's a coin toss. Playoffs is just the cherry on top of the cake. All those other teams aren't winning out either. Just win baby. Focusness people.

I don't think we win all 5 regular season games. That's a hell of an ask.

Edited by Thetexashammer
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Drew

Drew 2331

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I’m still wondering how Michigan is almost universally agreed to have a better resume than Texas. They have a better loss sure(very Aggy like) but they’ve beat a mid teens ranked Wiscy and low ranked Mich St. Not sure how that’s so much better than what Texas has done so far.

If they beat Penn St and Ohio St yeah sure.

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gmr548

gmr548 16517

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12 minutes ago, Drew said:

I’m still wondering how Michigan is almost universally agreed to have a better resume than Texas. They have a better loss sure(very Aggy like) but they’ve beat a mid teens ranked Wiscy and low ranked Mich St. Not sure how that’s so much better than what Texas has done so far.

If they beat Penn St and Ohio St yeah sure.

Michigan throttled a pretty good Wisconsin team on the road, convincingly beat its in state rival (that is going to end up an 8-win team) on the road, blew Maryland out, has generally not fucked around with bad teams, and has only lost on the road to a consensus top five ND by a touchdown (though that game was not as close as the 24-17 final score).

Texas was on its way to a signature win over OU in dominant fashion, but damn near blew a 21 point lead. Deserved to win but still fortunate to do so, and left room for interpretation as to who is the better team between the two. The next two best wins for Texas are already carrying a combined seven losses. USC still has room to make something of this season by getting to 8 or 9 wins, backing into the PAC-12 title game and/or beating ND, but there is a serious chance TCU doesn't even make a bowl at this point. That win is almost meaningless. Texas has consistently fucked around with bad teams, beating Tulsa, KSU, and Baylor by a combined 18 points and coming as close as possible to losing to Baylor at home without actually doing so. Texas lost to Maryland in a season opener with weeks to prepare for a program in disarray, with no HC, chaos in the locker room, and a one-trick pony offense. This happened at a "neutral" site that was quite clearly filled with Texas fans.

Both teams have chances to continue to iron things out in their final 4-5 games, and we'll see what becomes of USC, but I think only burnt orange tinted glasses would try to put Texas over Michigan at this point.

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JBJ

JBJ 3649

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16 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Essentially it's that OU is considered far more likely to go 12-1 than Texas is.

This.

And that seems to be a bit of unnessary confusion on my part.  Texas winning out guarantees us a spot, but our odds of winning out are slim.

Oklahoma, for example, needs to both win out and I think needs another upset in the B1G, ND, or Clemson to be in.  But the combination of these two are more likely.

Alabama has a decent chance of finishing their regular season with 1-loss or better.  But their most likely loss is in the CCG.  I think this leaves them out to a 1-loss team with a lesser SoS, but who won their conference.

 

Edited by JBJ
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