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CFB Playoff Chances

JBJ

By JBJ
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Greg Focker

Greg Focker 167

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Blanton said:

Christ, I think they will make sure Texas is the highest ranked 1-loss team just in time to play OU in the rematch bowl.

Those cocksuckers are gonna backdoor their way in, and it pains me to say that. 

If you beat every team on your schedule, is that really backdooring your way in?  It's more poetic to defeat the only team who beat you than to have a singular loss which went unanswered.  Especially if they're also a top 10 ranked team for a CCG.

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Horndog

Horndog 2218

Posted
Posted

FIveThirtyEight has a neat toy for calculating CFP chances. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

Texas has a 7% chance of winning out and a 15% chance of the CFP, but if we do win out the CFP odds go to 97%.  Oddity is that OU has a greater chance of making the playoffs (30%) than they do of winning out (24%).  

 

For the record, I don't think Texas is winning out, but it's fun to dream.

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Helobious

Helobious 9481

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8 hours ago, Horndog said:

FIveThirtyEight has a neat toy for calculating CFP chances. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

Texas has a 7% chance of winning out and a 15% chance of the CFP, but if we do win out the CFP odds go to 97%.  Oddity is that OU has a greater chance of making the playoffs (30%) than they do of winning out (24%).  

 

For the record, I don't think Texas is winning out, but it's fun to dream.

Fivethirtyeight is typically garbage. Their election predictions/analysis are laughable, and their sports content is largely the same.

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ztejas

ztejas 43266

Posted
Posted
On 10/22/2018 at 4:09 PM, Horndog said:

Texas has a 7% chance of winning out and a 15% chance of the CFP, but if we do win out the CFP odds go to 97%.  Oddity is that OU has a greater chance of making the playoffs (30%) than they do of winning out (24%).  

None of this makes any fucking sense. 

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pops

pops 6974

Posted
Posted
On 10/22/2018 at 10:11 PM, Helobious said:

Fivethirtyeight is typically garbage. Their election predictions/analysis are laughable, and their sports content is largely the same.

Yeah, whether he was lucky or good it seems like I remember him nailing the 2012 election, became a media darling, and has basically been wrong ever since.  

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notre dame joe

notre dame joe 172

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Posted
On ‎10‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 2:09 PM, Horndog said:

Texas has a 7% chance of winning out and a 15% chance of the CFP, 

11-2 Texas is in the playoff 8% of the time?  Or is it even more because some of the times Texas wins out, you get shafted?  But tpi, I don't see how 11-2 UT is given a berth over 12-0 UCF, 11-1 ND, and a bunch of SEC also-rans.

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903Cougar

903Cougar 132

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, joeycovers said:

I believe that was announced at the beginning of the year. 

Big 12 morning ABC

SEC afternoon CBS

ACC Night ABC

B10 Night FOX

Pac 12 Friday

They chose the ACC over the B12

Which makes no sense.   A Texas vs OU rematch for a night cap with a playoff spot on the line would be a ratings blockbuster.  

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ousux

ousux 5587

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Posted
I see no reason to get excited for the playoff as a Texas fan.   The BCS has made crystal fucking clear that Texas is only allowed to go to the BCS if we are undefeated.
Since 2003, Texas has had two single loss pre-bowl seasons, NEITHER time were we invited to the BCS Championship. Although 2004 can be explained due to there being three undefeated teams.   
Meanwhile, Oklahoma is always allowed to go with 1 loss, no matter how bad or to who.
since 2003, Oklahoma has had a single loss pre-bowl season 4 times.  ALL FOUR SEASONS, they played in either the BCS Championship, or the Playoff with 1 loss.
Two of those times,  Okie's single loss was against Texas, including our wretched 5-6  2015 season team,  another time was the 2003 version of Oklahoma who got fucking DESTROYED in the Conf Championship game by K-State, yet they were given the chance to play for the title in their very next game.  and the 4th example, they lost AT HOME to 7-5 Iowa State.
Each and every fucking time, the BCS made mental gymnastic moves to let Oklahoma in with 1 loss.
Meanwhile, unless we go undefeated.... we arent going to the fucking playoff.
This is 100% true sadly..

But like someone above said, we're getting way ahead of ourselved here, almost aggyesque.
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5524

Posted
Posted
On ‎10‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 5:09 PM, Horndog said:

FIveThirtyEight has a neat toy for calculating CFP chances. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

Texas has a 7% chance of winning out and a 15% chance of the CFP, but if we do win out the CFP odds go to 97%.  Oddity is that OU has a greater chance of making the playoffs (30%) than they do of winning out (24%).  

 

For the record, I don't think Texas is winning out, but it's fun to dream.

 

On ‎10‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 9:10 PM, NeverMarryAStripper said:

That calculator gives Purdue a 35% chance of making the playoffs if they win out. No 3 loss team is making the playoffs.

Image result for math gif

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Jimbaround

Jimbaround 973

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Posted
18 hours ago, joeycovers said:

I believe that was announced at the beginning of the year. 

Big 12 morning ABC

SEC afternoon CBS

ACC Night ABC

B10 Night FOX

Pac 12 Friday

They chose the ACC over the B12

Well, at least we have a better shot at remembering the game with an 11:00 start time.  I'm sure there will be many who are blacked out come the ACC and B10 championship games.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22600

Posted
Posted
On 10/23/2018 at 12:11 AM, Helobious said:

Fivethirtyeight is typically garbage. Their election predictions/analysis are laughable, and their sports content is largely the same.

[no CR]

Hearing a discussion on 538 is a pretty decent idiot test.  It's always fun to hear people who don't understand probability and statistics suddenly determine what is and isn't garbage.

Go reread Silver's predictions on the morning of the November 2016 election where he pretty much nails the scenario that ended up happening.  It's not his fault that people see a 28% chance to win and they assume that means 0%.

[/no CR]

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JBJ

JBJ 3649

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

[no CR]

Hearing a discussion on 538 is a pretty decent idiot test.  It's always fun to hear people who don't understand probability and statistics suddenly determine what is and isn't garbage.

Go reread Silver's predictions on the morning of the November 2016 election where he pretty much nails the scenario that ended up happening.  It's not his fault that people see a 28% chance to win and they assume that means 0%.

[/no CR]

He's been further off than simple poll aggregates in every major election - including 2012.

The one thing Silver does in life, someone with 30 minutes and a calculator does it better.

Edited by JBJ
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ztejas

ztejas 43266

Posted
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

[no CR]

Hearing a discussion on 538 is a pretty decent idiot test.  It's always fun to hear people who don't understand probability and statistics suddenly determine what is and isn't garbage.

Go reread Silver's predictions on the morning of the November 2016 election where he pretty much nails the scenario that ended up happening.  It's not his fault that people see a 28% chance to win and they assume that means 0%.

[/no CR]

Found Nate* Silver's Surly handle.

Edited by ztejas
honestly who cares what his name is
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joeycovers

joeycovers 385

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Juicy said:

that is always a noon kick off, i have a love/hate relationship with the early kick. 

I believe only time it wasn't was back in 06 in the game of the century part 47 and everyone wanted a rematch for National Title. Then both wenton to lose Bowl games. 

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Jimbaround

Jimbaround 973

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Vic Mackey said:
6 hours ago, Jimbaround said:
Well, at least we have a better shot at remembering the game with an 11:00 start time.  I'm sure there will be many who are blacked out come the ACC and B10 championship games.

Who the fuck watches the ACC title game?

Those who care about the ACC I suppose.  I was suggesting if the Big XII champ game were a night game I most of us would still start our pre-gaming before 11:00a.

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ztejas

ztejas 43266

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Jimbaround said:

Those who care about the ACC I suppose.  I was suggesting if the Big XII champ game were a night game I most of us would still start our pre-gaming before 11:00a.

I dabble as much as the next guy but I don't think we're all such hardcore alcoholics that everyone blacks out by 3 o'clock on a Saturday. 

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903Cougar

903Cougar 132

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Vic Mackey said:
7 hours ago, Jimbaround said:
Well, at least we have a better shot at remembering the game with an 11:00 start time.  I'm sure there will be many who are blacked out come the ACC and B10 championship games.

Who the fuck watches the ACC title game?

This.  The Big 12 title game is going to garner WAY more interest nationally.  It literally makes no sense to have the Big 12 game in the morning and that game in Prime Time.  

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5784

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Vic Mackey said:
8 hours ago, Jimbaround said:
Well, at least we have a better shot at remembering the game with an 11:00 start time.  I'm sure there will be many who are blacked out come the ACC and B10 championship games.

Who the fuck watches the ACC title game?

 

48 minutes ago, 903Cougar said:

This.  The Big 12 title game is going to garner WAY more interest nationally.  It literally makes no sense to have the Big 12 game in the morning and that game in Prime Time.  

The ACC championship game and the Big 12 championship game had about the same rating last year, even though the ACC went head to head with the Big 10. 

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notre dame joe

notre dame joe 172

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

 

The ACC championship game and the Big 12 championship game had about the same rating last year, even though the ACC went head to head with the Big 10. 

I'll assume the Big was on FOX and a blowout.  There was a reason to think 11-1 Miami could upset Clemson although the ACCCG is nearly as upset-starved as the SEC.

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Zavala

Zavala 1384

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, 903Cougar said:

This.  The Big 12 title game is going to garner WAY more interest nationally.  It literally makes no sense to have the Big 12 game in the morning and that game in Prime Time.  

They are assuming it's on the side TV next to the big 10 shit.

Lol people pretending like Nate Silver's percentages and predictions are worth a fuck.

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ztejas

ztejas 43266

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Posted
15 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

 

The ACC championship game and the Big 12 championship game had about the same rating last year, even though the ACC went head to head with the Big 10. 

imgur

1. They both competed against other games (UCF and Memphis actually have large fan-bases - shocker)

2. One was in the perfect viewing slot ignoring competition - the other was at 12:45

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Zavala

Zavala 1384

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 903Cougar said:

What are you saying?

The acc game is at the same time as the big 10 game. It's not that they put ACC over us, they just didn't want these top two games to compete at the same time slot.

Then, Nate Silver, 538, has been a worthless idoit making predictions.

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903Cougar

903Cougar 132

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Zavala said:

The acc game is at the same time as the big 10 game. It's not that they put ACC over us, they just didn't want these top two games to compete at the same time slot.

Then, Nate Silver, 538, has been a worthless idoit making predictions.

That makes sense now.  But it's going to be a snooze fest of Wisconsin and tOSU/Michigan,  ugh.  

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Zavala

Zavala 1384

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 903Cougar said:

That makes sense now.  But it's going to be a snooze fest of Wisconsin and tOSU/Michigan,  ugh.  

Yeah but they really got to sell it as a big game to try and get a big 10 team into the playoffs. Like half the "committee" has big 10 ties. It's garbage. The three of their best teams are all in the same division too.

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JBJ

JBJ 3649

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Posted

This week: 

Theres now a good chance a "beauty contest" team limps into the 4th spot.  Like the SEC East runner-up, 1L ND, 2L champion, undefeated UCF, etc.

Odds Rank | Team | % | (Projected Final CFP Rank) | [Proj Curr. Rank]

1) Clemson 95% (2) [4]

2) Alabama 70% (1) [1]

3) Notre Dame 45% (3) [2]

4) Oklahoma 30% (4) [8]

5) Michigan 30% (5) [9]

6) Ohio State 25% (8) [7]

7) Georgia 25% (7) [6]

8: West Virginia 15% (14) [10]

9) Wazzou 10% (19) [11]

10) LSU 10% (11) [3]

11) Kentucky 10% (13) [5]

12) UCF 5% (6) [12]

Distant shot: any P5 2-loss team winning out.

 

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Underdog

Underdog 28457

Posted
Posted
On 10/25/2018 at 4:01 PM, Vic Mackey said:
On 10/25/2018 at 10:36 AM, Jimbaround said:
Well, at least we have a better shot at remembering the game with an 11:00 start time.  I'm sure there will be many who are blacked out come the ACC and B10 championship games.

Who the fuck watches the ACC title game?

All the cool motherfuckers who chime in on NFL threads telling us how better the college game is. 

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