Let's Get Real on Texas FB (Likes, Concerns, Trends, Can Improve)

[LTtxfan 50001]

On 10/22/2018 at 12:03 PM, LTtxfan said:

Keepin It Real.... Texas 6-1

So how good is this 2018 Longhorn FB Team really??

Wins: Tulsa, USC, TCU, KState, BlowU and Baylor.      Loss: Maryland

Before the Season, seemed like most predicted 8-4 or 9-3.......Remaining Games:  At Okie Lite, WVa, At Tech, Iowa St, At Kansas

Watching Baylor suck so far tonight, means HORNS really need to play well on National TV Saturday night.  Except for the BlowU win, none of the other victories for TEXAS this year are impressive since TCU & USC are struggling.......

[LTtxfan 50001]

On 10/22/2018 at 12:03 PM, LTtxfan said:

Keepin It Real.... Texas 6-1

So how good is this 2018 Longhorn FB Team really??

Wins: Tulsa, USC, TCU, KState, BlowU and Baylor   Loss: Maryland

Before the Season, seemed like most predicted 8-4 or 9-3..... Remaining Games:  At Okie Lite, WVa, At Tech, Iowa St, At Kansas

 

TCU losing to Kansas and USC struggling vs Arizona State hurts LONGHORNS resume for CFP Rankings.

C'MON HORNS...... Win Big Tonight against Okie Lite 🤘

 

Edited October 27, 2018 by LTtxfan

[LTtxfan 50001]

On 10/22/2018 at 12:03 PM, LTtxfan said:

Keepin It Real.... Texas 6-1

So how good is this 2018 Longhorn FB Team really??

Wins: Tulsa, USC, TCU, KState, BlowU and Baylor.     Loss: Maryland

Before the Season, seemed like most predicted 8-4 or 9-3.....

Remaining Games:  At Okie Lite, WVa, At Tech, Iowa St, At Kansas

Just a reminder of most folks preseason expectations for TEXAS.  Hope HORNS come back and Win against Okie Lite in 2nd Half....... but if not, still a lot to play for ahead.

Edited October 28, 2018 by LTtxfan

[Slacks 7057]

 
TCU losing to Kansas and USC struggling vs Arizona State hurts LONGHORNS resume for CFP Rankings.
C'MON HORNS...... Win Big Tonight against Okie Lite 
 

So, I told my son today at his soccer game, "Do your job. You're not good enough at your job to tell other people how to do their job."

I got 2 losses today.

[LTtxfan 50001]

Before the Season, seemed like most predicted 8-4 or 9-3.......

Remaining Games:  West Va, At Tech, Iowa St, At Kansas.

 Keep the faith folks..... HORNS are tied for 1st in B12 with only one conference loss.

Edited October 28, 2018 by LTtxfan

[taybo20 3035]

Offense had 3 and outs, but they sure didn't lose this game. Sam played great! 

Defense was exposed tonight. The defensive freshmen especially got a taste of a big time conference game at night on the road, and they reacted like freshman. There weren't the only issues by any means tho. I really hope this gets these guys focused down the stretch. They are so many teachable moments from this game, and they can still achieve getting in and winning the CCG. Being focused during the week, will lead to higher performance at game time.

[satyanash 15597]

- Brandon Jones was just brutal tonight. Don't think I need to say anything more.

- Okie Lite had a fantastic gameplan for attacking our defense. The stretch read play, the zone read keepers... Okie Lite used their bye very effectively.

- Our young CBs aren't there yet. Washington has a lot of work to do getting them up to speed by the time Boyd + Davis leave, because what I saw in the 1st quarter... yeesh.

- Too many drops by the wideouts. OSU loaded the box and dared us to attack their corners, just as I said before the game, and CJ + LJH didn't come through often enough.

- We made a comeback. It rings hollow given that we lost, but it's still something to work forwards from as we prepare for WVU. And none of the remaining opponents run the ball as well as Okie Lite does.

[Aces_Full 41]

What happened to the OLINE tonight? 

[satyanash 15597]

7 minutes ago, Aces_Full said:

What happened to the OLINE tonight? 

They weren't terrible, all things considered.

[Aces_Full 41]

All things considered?  119 total rushing yards & half of that from our QB vs a soft defense = not good.  Couldn’t get the running game going tonight.  Critical holding calls as well. 

[satyanash 15597]

Just now, Aces_Full said:

All things considered?  119 total rushing yards & half of that from our QB vs a soft defense = not good.  Couldn’t get the running game going tonight.  Critical holding calls as well. 

Okie Lite did what we expected. They loaded the box and dared us to go after their corners. CJ and LJH had too many drops and couldn't take full advantage of their favourable matchups.

Okie Lite has the best front 7 in the conference. It was expected we'd struggle on the ground, the hope was that we could torch them through the air and get them to loosen up. That didn't happen until we were too far behind to establish the run.

[LTtxfan 50001]

6-1 Record  might have spoiled many TEXAS fans into believing that this  Team was worthy of the #6 AP ranking.

1) Still a poor road Team.

2) No pass rush from DL

3) Defense not very good at creating turnovers especially fumbles.

4) Still struggling on OLine to generate much push for running plays.

5) LBs continue to make too many metal errors.... Do they study film?

6) Way too many penalties each game

7) Number of Mental mistakes by K.Boyd/ D.Davis ridiculous for Sr DBs

😎 

😎 Roster probably still has too many deficiencies to Win B12.

 

Good Stuff

1) Sam improving and protecting the ball

2) Ingram when stronger and healthy will be amazing

3) CJ & LJH and Beck are much better in 2018.

4) Sterns & Foster are playing well for Freshmen and have high ceilings

5) The Team is improving and learning more about how to Win.

6) Much better at late game situations and 4 minute closeout FB.

7) Redshirting several Freshmen OL & DL.

😎 

😎 Sure is more fun to Watch a Team that gives more effort a cares about each other so much.  

 

Don't like saying this, but the 9-3 or 8-4 Record that many predicted before the Season still seems likely due to Okie State loss.....

Edited October 28, 2018 by LTtxfan

[satyanash 15597]

2 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

😎 Roster probably still has too many deficiencies to Win B12.

Don't like saying this, but the 9-3 or 8-4 Record that many predicted before the Season still seems likely due to Okie State loss.....

This is the big takeaway, I think. S&P+ had us at exactly 8.5 wins before tonight. Most likely scenario is we end up with 8/9 wins and a spot in the Camping World Bowl / Alamo Bowl.

Which, honestly, isn't all that bad.

[TexasGolf 5464]

Lets see how they respond next week. I like our chances 

[LTtxfan 50001]

8 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

6-1 Record  might have spoiled many TEXAS fans into believing that this  Team was worthy of the #6 AP ranking.

1) Still a poor road Team.

2) No pass rush from DL

3) Defense not very good at creating turnovers especially fumbles.

4) Still struggling on OLine to generate much push for running plays.

5) LBs continue to make too many metal errors.... Do they study film?

6) Way too many penalties each game

7) Number of Mental mistakes by K.Boyd/ D.Davis ridiculous for Sr DBs

😎

😎 Roster probably still has too many deficiencies to Win B12.

 

Good Stuff

1) Sam improving and protecting the ball

2) Ingram when stronger and healthy will be amazing

3) CJ & LJH and Beck are much better in 2018.

4) Sterns & Foster are playing well for Freshmen and have high ceilings

5) The Team is improving and learning more about how to Win.

6) Much better at late game situations and 4 minute closeout FB.

7) Redshirting several Freshmen OL & DL.

😎

😎 Sure is more fun to Watch a Team that gives more effort a cares about each other so much.  

 

Don't like saying this, but the 9-3 or 8-4 Record that many predicted before the Season still seems likely due to Okie State loss.....

Sorry about my 😎 emoji popping up in post above

Not sure what's going on..... Did not type them

[LTtxfan 50001]

20 minutes ago, satyanash said:

This is the big takeaway, I think. S&P+ had us at exactly 8.5 wins before tonight. Most likely scenario is we end up with 8/9 wins and a spot in the Camping World Bowl / Alamo Bowl.

Which, honestly, isn't all that bad.

Hope they can get out of the Slow Start Rut.....

Herman is right that they have to play well to Win, and when they do they can beat anyone in the B12.

If TEXAS Beats West Virginia/Iowa State/Kansas, they can afford a road loss to Tech and still make the B12 Championship Game of Tech loses another game (like BlowU)

Football Season   2018-19 2017-18 2016-17 2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08
	Big12		Overall
Team	Record	Pct	Record	Pct
Oklahoma	4-1	.800	7-1	.875
West Virginia	4-1	.800	6-1	.857
Texas	4-1	.800	6-2	.750
Texas Tech	3-2	.600	5-3	.625
Iowa State	3-2	.600	4-3	.571

 

HOOK'EM 🤘

Edited October 28, 2018 by LTtxfan

[LTtxfan 50001]

10 hours ago, satyanash said:

This is the big takeaway, I think. S&P+ had us at exactly 8.5 wins before tonight. Most likely scenario is we end up with 8/9 wins and a spot in the Camping World Bowl / Alamo Bowl.

Which, honestly, isn't all that bad.

Taking a closer look at this Texas team after the Okie Lite loss, reminds me that while they are improved they still have lots of deficiencies to overcome to Win Games.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Started thinking about their 2 losses this year and Found some similarities in both Maryland & Okie Lite losses....

1) Herman may need to add more experience to Analysts Staff because with extra time for Game Planning...... Texas Coaches got whipped twice this Season.

1st Loss.... Maryland Game had whole off-season to prepare

2nd Loss..... Okie Lite Game two weeks preparation time

2) Poor Performances by Defense in 1st Half against Maryland & Okie Lite dug too big a hole for Horns to comeback and Win.

3) Bad LB play due to mental errors..... gave up easy rushing yards

4) Stretch plays, jet sweeps, and QB zone reads all took advantage of poor discipline by TEXAS Defense.

5) Poor tackling

I'm sure there are more similarities, just most troubled by how both Maryland and Okie Lite did a much better job in preparation and game planning than the Texas Coaching Staff.

Edited October 28, 2018 by LTtxfan

[LTtxfan 50001]

Not a big 9.95 fan...... But this Take is solid

(Bobby Burton) Snap Judgments: Miscues and Missed Opportunities

In some respects, I can't remember a worse game for the Texas secondary than the one we just witnessed. Sure, there have been teams that have thrown for more yards against the Horns. But the Texas DBs looked lost at times, overwhelmed at others and a couple of times simply didn't make the plays that they were in position to make. The miscues started early. Davante Davis and Kris Boyd were out in the first quarter. And Kobe Boyce, Boyd's first quarter replacement, is clearly not ready to play in the Big 12 - or maybe anywhere.

But this was a team effort; it wasn't just about the first quarter or the two replacements. Several members of the secondary had multiple plays where they looked either lost or overwhelmed. Brandon Jones, on multiple occasions, misjudged the flight of the ball which led to more yards after the catch. On the TD catch by Tylan Wallace, Jones watched the play happen instead of actually doing anything. And finally, the decision to catch the punt over his shoulder and try to return it was a costly mistake.

Texas got the ball, down by three, but because of Jones' decision the team was backed up to its own two. BJ Foster, uncharacteristically, was routinely beaten on run plays. RB Justice Hill gave him fits, and Foster's decision to go high on the TD run by the Oklahoma State QB gave the Cowboys a critical two-score lead in the game's final minutes. PJ Locke continues to get beat in both the pass and run game. Locke's play on the game's final third down of consequence, this one against the run, was inexcusable. He didn't stay outside against a simple zone-read keep. That's poor play from a senior. The moment was just too big for him.

Boyd got beat on the big catch on fourth down by jumping too early and was beaten deep once. But his biggest mistake came by missing the first quarter because his replacement was simply no match for Wallace. I've seen some poor performances. But this was one of the worst I've seen from an entirety standpoint. I'm not sure how Locke keeps his job after this week.

**

The Texas defense had a real problem with the two-back set that the Cowboys ran so often tonight. Anthony Wheeler looked slow. That's partly the speed of the RB Hill and partly Wheeler just not being quick enough to do much about it. Don't get wrong. The Cowboys' success in the run game wasn't all on Wheeler. I feel like Todd Orlando's decision to only put five in the box in the first quarter bordered on the insane. MikeGundy showed him that by walking the ball down the field the first four times they had the ball. And other Texas defenders let Hill get extra yardage multiple times after first contact.

**

Texas completely abandoned its own run game early in the third quarter and it hurt the Horns' attempt to get back into the game. Sam Ehlinger is a quarterback who is growing. But he's also not going to be a guy who can chunk it down the field on aconsistent basis without the threat of a run game and play-action passes.

**

How many mistakes did Texas make throughout the game? There was the jump offsides by Ta'Quon Graham. I know it should have been a penalty on O-State, but thedefense still needs to be disciplined enough not to jump. That ended up costing Texas seven points. (Again, I don't put that entirely on Graham, but it's indicative of how the night went for the Horns.) Then there's the multiple offsides penalties by two senior defensive ends.

There was the completely blown coverage on the first fourth-down TD catch. There was De'Shawn Jamison inexplicably attempting to return the first kick of the second half for all of 13 yards. There was the drop by LJ Humphrey with nothing but green ahead of him. There was Jones fielding the punt and losing eight yards after catching it. There were a lot of plays where Texas simply didn't fit the run well on defense. Toomany mistakes. Most of them were mental ones, which is particularly disappointing since the team had limited those so well so far this season.

**

Ehlinger looked and played like he was knocking the rust off for the first half. The entire team did, actually. The Horns too often abandoned what got them to aleadership position in the Big 12. Texas didn't really use the QB run until it was much too late in the contest. Maybe that was Tom Herman's decision to make sure Ehlinger could take the hits. But this offense has a major problem running the ball without that threat at QB. No matter the reason, Texas didn't control the ball at all in the first half and had way too many three and outs overall.

**

I felt like several OLs had relatively good games, particularly Sam Cosmi and CalvinAnderson, although it was Anderson who should have been called for holding in the end zone and not Pat Vahe. I also felt like Collin Johnson and Devin Duvernay had solid games. LJ Humphrey dropped one pass early and didn't;'t hustle to get lined up on time at the end of the first half, But he made a terrific catch on the sideline, as wellas a few others for first downs. Ehlinger played relatively well once the rust got knocked off. But the defense, for the most part, was abused by the mix of the two-back power run game and by Wallace in the receiving game on the perimeter.

**

At the end of the day, Texas came back but it just wasn't enough. It's yet another one-score game the Horns have played this season. That's a total of six one-score games this season. Texas played five one-score games a year ago. What does thatmean? Maybe it means that mistakes, even small ones, are often the differencebetween winning and losing. Too many miscues and missed opportunities doomedthe Horns in Stillwater tonight.

  Hide con

Edited October 28, 2018 by LTtxfan

[LTtxfan 50001]

Analytics may not be good below, but the most important Stat is 6-2.  Big Game to gain momentum for the rest of the 2018 Season.... Beat West Virginia

http://dailytexanonline.com/2018/11/02/analytics-show-texas-football-fighting-against-odds-this-season  

 

Analytics show Texas football fighting against odds this season

 

Published on November 2, 2018 

BY KIRK VON KREISLER

The chaotic nature of college football brings an avalanche of clichés every season. But, in this case, it applies: Texas is at a “make-or-break” point in its season.

Every season has its own defining point where a team’s fate is sealed. Think Texas’ soul-crushing loss at Texas Tech in 2008 or any time the 2005 Longhorns stepped onto the field. For this year’s Longhorns, that defining point is approaching.  

After dropping their second loss of the season in Stillwater, the Longhorns have almost lost all hopes of a playoff berth. Yet, there is still more to be decided in the coming weeks. An incredibly tight Big 12 Conference race and the annual mayhem provided by the month of November leaves Texas with opportunity.

The numbers don’t favor Texas. And that’s been the case for a lot of the numbers detailing Texas’ success, despite an impressive six wins and a top twenty AP ranking.  From an analytics standpoint, advanced statistics have been projecting the Longhorns slipup since the start of their steady rise.

College football’s best predictive advanced statistic, S&P+, measures team efficiency in key aspects of the game to compare and evaluate them with opponent-adjusted statistics. Created by Bill Connelly, SB Nation’s college football editor, the S&P+ statistics are often regarded as a holy grail of information for the game, effectively sorting out as much chance as possible and hitting on predictions close to the rate of Vegas. It’s also been right on all but two of Texas’ predictions so far.

Measuring the “factors of winning football” — efficiency, explosiveness, turnovers, field position and finishing drives — Texas’ season output and S&P rank thus far isn’t much to be proud of: 42nd in the nation. And, as if the ranking wasn’t concerning enough, the data puts Texas behind every other team in the conference except Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor and TCU. Not ideal for Longhorn fans.

As for the remaining regular season, projections are still bleak. Texas’ next two weeks are tough: a home showdown against West Virginia followed by a trip to Lubbock to face Texas Tech. The Longhorns’ projected win probabilities for those games currently sit at 41 percent and 40 percent, respectively.

The next two weeks are very important for the Longhorns. November is where winners are made as the Big 12 Conference standings will shift and bring separation between contenders. With the possibility of finishing with a record anywhere between 10–2 and 6–6, these two weeks will likely determine if the season has been a convincing leap from the mediocrity of past seasons.

The problem hasn’t been how the Longhorns have performed against top-tier teams; it’s how they have performed against far worse teams that brings some concern, as Connelly pointed out.

Before last week’s loss at Oklahoma State, a top 50 team, the Longhorns had outscored top 50 teams by an average of 13.7 points — a statistic that would make anyone ready to claim that Texas is back. However, Texas’ success against bottom 80 teams has been far less pretty, owning an average scoring margin of just plus-3.5, per SB Nation.

Of course, the Longhorns, and not the numbers, will be the ones putting the finishing touches on their 2018 season. With Texas already logging six wins this season, fans will turn their focus to potential bowl game selections. The Longhorns will have to play three more top 50 teams out of their four remaining games, and consecutive losses could be the difference between packing for San Antonio and the Alamo Bowl or a potential New Year’s Six bowl bid.

Despite the tough odds, it’s possible Texas head coach Tom Herman’s success as an underdog could lead to the unlikely. Often described as “a game decided by inches,” there are immeasurable moments in football, occurring in just seconds, that affect outcomes. It would be reckless to ignore the data suggesting that Texas has looked far from outstanding, yet it still won’t write the whole story. It just gives us a better idea.

The numbers may bet against Texas, but with the turnaround it’s had this season, I probably wouldn’t be able to.

[ApocalypseTexas 314]

Watching Texas football is like working your 7th 12 hour shift in a row just draining mentally and physically.

[LTtxfan 50001]

1 minute ago, ApocalyseTexas said:

Watching Texas football is like working your 7th 12 hour shift in a row just draining mentally and physically.

Solid post.....

[LTtxfan 50001]

On 10/28/2018 at 12:40 AM, satyanash said:

This is the big takeaway, I think. S&P+ had us at exactly 8.5 wins before tonight. Most likely scenario is we end up with 8/9 wins and a spot in the Camping World Bowl / Alamo Bowl.

Which, honestly, isn't all that bad.

Tough loss against West Virginia.....

Hard to believe how poorly the TEXAS Defense is playing right now. Need to keep this Team together and Win in Lubbock...... Would be great for a TEXAS Win in the Iowa State game to mean BlowU would probably have to beat West Virginia in Morgantown to make the B12 Championship.

Great game by Offense against West Virginia.  Still a lot of room to even get better.  Hope Collin stays for next Season..... not sure LJH will return for 2019 based on some reports by 9.95er's.....

Edited November 4, 2018 by LTtxfan

[po elvis 2141]

situational play calling in very key spots is our biggest problem. 2nd and goal at the 1 you can not call plays that will lose you 4 yards. you do not run sideways. the same on the 4th and short in the 4th quarter. Sam ran sideways. Those two play calls were the key to the game. Even with those missed opportunities that turned 14 points into 3 it took OSU to drive the field and score a TD and 2 pt'er at the end. the offensive coaches just have to focus and understand what you have to do and absolutely can't do in the important spots that define the game.

[LTtxfan 50001]

1 hour ago, po elvis said:

situational play calling in very key spots is our biggest problem. 2nd and goal at the 1 you can not call plays that will lose you 4 yards. you do not run sideways. the same on the 4th and short in the 4th quarter. Sam ran sideways. Those two play calls were the key to the game. Even with those missed opportunities that turned 14 points into 3 it took OSU to drive the field and score a TD and 2 pt'er at the end. the offensive coaches just have to focus and understand what you have to do and absolutely can't do in the important spots that define the game.

In hindsight, lots of decisions can be questioned in close games.

I wrote a question earlier when this Team was 6-1..... How good was this Texas Team really factoring in only one big Win vs BlowU??

Struggling against KState and Baylor were early indicators that the HORNS might have difficulty with all of the remaining B12 Teams on their schedule except hopefully Kansas.

Really surprised that Orlando's group has digressed so much..... and now with all the injuries on the defensive side of the ball, gonna be tough to Win in Lubbock.

Gonna take a hell of a week of coaching on Defense to Beat the Red Raiders...... Time for Orlando to earn his money.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Btw....Still expecting to see more experience to be added to the analysts and Quality Control groups for 2019 because gameplanning and opponent preparation have been poor this Season.

[Slacks 7057]

Who are the DL and LBs for next year?

We have been getting CRUSHED at the LOS. on one play near the end zone, I saw WVU push our shit in so bad... we had no shot at stopping them... same on the 2pt conversion... we got our shit pushed in AND got fooled. everybody should have known what play was coming (and i assume they did) but our alignment was garbage and our eyes fooled us. they still could have run up the middle, but Grier isn't that.

i haven't watched the TTU OL much, but they looked decent against OU. ISU will show up for real... and they're better than Tech.

Optimize the defense we have.... like right now... or we're going to lose more close games by getting the ball run down our throat.

Edited November 4, 2018 by Snacks

[TornACL 7792]

We need to sign 8 DL in this class. 

It doesn't matter your scheme or your secondary if you get zero push and zero pass rush out of your front four. 

[BrazilHorn 6843]

Texas tackling has regressed. Too many people trying to force TO vs tackling. 

Poor LB play. Texas currently has zero real playmakers on defense. There’s no one opposing OCs have to scheme around. Rather there are players like Locke and Wheeler they plan to expose. 

[LTtxfan 50001]

2 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Texas tackling has regressed. Too many people trying to force TO vs tackling. 

Poor LB play. Texas currently has zero real playmakers on defense. There’s no one opposing OCs have to scheme around. Rather there are players like Locke and Wheeler they plan to expose. 

Lots of indecision, mistakes and down right "Brain Farts" occurring on Defense.  Time to run more base defense and simplify..... at least then players are more often in the right spots so they can cut it loose and just play football.

Too much confusion occurring on Defense for TEXAS...... poor play at LB and NB along with youthful mistakes by the Safeties and younger CBs......

[Disco Missile 456]

On 10/27/2018 at 10:37 PM, LTtxfan said:

6-1 Record  might have spoiled many TEXAS fans into believing that this  Team was worthy of the #6 AP ranking.

1) Still a poor road Team.

2) No pass rush from DL

3) Defense not very good at creating turnovers especially fumbles.

4) Still struggling on OLine to generate much push for running plays.

5) LBs continue to make too many metal errors.... Do they study film?

6) Way too many penalties each game

7) Number of Mental mistakes by K.Boyd/ D.Davis ridiculous for Sr DBs

😎

😎 Roster probably still has too many deficiencies to Win B12.

 

Good Stuff

1) Sam improving and protecting the ball

2) Ingram when stronger and healthy will be amazing

3) CJ & LJH and Beck are much better in 2018.

4) Sterns & Foster are playing well for Freshmen and have high ceilings

5) The Team is improving and learning more about how to Win.

6) Much better at late game situations and 4 minute closeout FB.

7) Redshirting several Freshmen OL & DL.

😎

😎 Sure is more fun to Watch a Team that gives more effort a cares about each other so much.  

 

Don't like saying this, but the 9-3 or 8-4 Record that many predicted before the Season still seems likely due to Okie State loss.....

I agree with all of this. Especially the roster part. We just don't have the raw talent on this team to overcome a lot of setbacks.
And frankly, I believe we've been outcoached the last couple of game by offensive-minded coaches abusing our weaknesses on defense.

I am thrilled with Sam's performance this year. We've improved on OL but we don't dominate. Our skill players are above average. I think our offense is going to be rocking next year if avoid injuries.
Our defense lacks depth. Our DL is below average and gets pushed around by most of the OLs we're facing. Our LBs are a mixed bag, and the lack of depth and dominant playmakers hurts us. Our secondary isn't bad but there's no room for errors because they aren't getting help up front, and they have to watch the run and the pass. I think our defense improves next year but not by much unless something unexpected happens, like a huge GT or we have a D lineman pull a Gaskamp.

[LTtxfan 50001]

8 minutes ago, Disco Missile said:

I agree with all of this. Especially the roster part. We just don't have the raw talent on this team to overcome a lot of setbacks.
And frankly, I believe we've been outcoached the last couple of game by offensive-minded coaches abusing our weaknesses on defense.

I am thrilled with Sam's performance this year. We've improved on OL but we don't dominate. Our skill players are above average. I think our offense is going to be rocking next year if avoid injuries.
Our defense lacks depth. Our DL is below average and gets pushed around by most of the OLs we're facing. Our LBs are a mixed bag, and the lack of depth and dominant playmakers hurts us. Our secondary isn't bad but there's no room for errors because they aren't getting help up front, and they have to watch the run and the pass. I think our defense improves next year but not by much unless something unexpected happens, like a huge GT or we have a D lineman pull a Gaskamp.

+1

Especially Agree with being outcoached part in last 2 games....  that's why I posted above the following:

"Btw....Still expecting to see more experience to be added to the analysts and Quality Control groups for 2019 because gameplanning and opponent preparation have been poor this Season."

Edited November 4, 2018 by LTtxfan

[BrazilHorn 6843]

Tough thing is the defense is making it to where if offense doesn’t score on every possession almost the game is lost. 

I’m not a Beck fan but you avg 40 points just about on offense in conference losses you should win. 

 

[Sgt Hulk 14434]

For every postitvie step forward the offense has made. The defense has went 2 steps in reverse. Since the 4th quarter of Oklahoma they have just went home.  I feel like every squad can scheme against us because their coaches watch film on us.  I’m not sure our coaches watch any film.  Baylor Ok state and WVU are indiictive of that.  The offense is growing by the minute and the defense is just saying F it.  77 points or whatever by the offense in 2 weeks and almost 1000 yards of offense and 2 losses to show for it 

Edited November 4, 2018 by Sgt Hulk

[LTtxfan 50001]

1 hour ago, Sgt Hulk said:

For every postitvie step forward the offense has made. The defense has went 2 steps in reverse. Since the 4th quarter of Oklahoma they have just went home.  I feel like every squad can scheme against us because their coaches watch film on us.  I’m not sure our coaches watch any film.  Baylor Ok state and WVU are indiictive of that.  The offense is growing by the minute and the defense is just saying F it.  77 points or whatever by the offense in 2 weeks and almost 1000 yards of offense and 2 losses to show for it 

Really surprising how poorly Orlando's group is playing.  The tackling has to improve.....

Kinda wish they could sit Roach the rest of the Season so he could keep another year of eligibility, but with Hager and I think Bimage possibly out for Tech game, Roach probably plays this Saturday.....

[LTtxfan 50001]

Just saw this on write-up for Tech game.....

The #RevolUTion18 
• Fourteen true freshmen have played so far this season: P Ryan Bujcevski (9 games), DL Keondre Coburn (1), DB Anthony Cook (9), K Cameron Dicker (9), WR Brennan Eagles (6), DB B.J. Foster (8), DB Jalen Green (6), RB Keaontay Ingram (8), WR D'Shawn Jamison (9), WR Joshua Moore (6), DL Moro Ojomo (1), DB DeMarvion Overshown(8) and DB Caden Sterns (9).

 

Also think Joseph Ossai has played, and the deep snapper that starts is a freshman too... 

Edited November 6, 2018 by LTtxfan

[irishtexan 11712]

This is the Manny Diaz Deja Vu Experience Redux Part 2

[LTtxfan 50001]

1 minute ago, irishtexan said:

This is the Manny Diaz Deja Vu Experience Redux Part 2

DL and LB talent for this 2018 TEXAS team was so overrated......

Now with injuries on DL and Nelson playing hurt, gonna be difficult to Win in Lubbock unless the Texas Offense scores at least 45 points or Tech has 3-4 turnovers.

[irishtexan 11712]

Just now, LTtxfan said:

DL and LB talent for this 2018 TEXAS team was so overrated......

Now with injuries on DL and Nelson playing hurt, gonna be difficult to Win in Lubbock unless the Texas Offense scores at least 45 points or Tech has 3-4 turnovers.

D has been real disappointing. We lost some Dudes that got replaced with JAGs up front and replaced experienced Dudes with talented but inexperienced freshman in the secondary. I think a bit of a regression was to be expected, but nothing along these lines. A failure to execute fundamentals has been most disappointing. As well as Orlando's obstinate commitment to this garbage base package that doesn't fit our personnel.

BTW, you're getting real Satanya-ishy with your "everything sucks" takes. 

[LTtxfan 50001]

43 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

D has been real disappointing. We lost some Dudes that got replaced with JAGs up front and replaced experienced Dudes with talented but inexperienced freshman in the secondary. I think a bit of a regression was to be expected, but nothing along these lines. A failure to execute fundamentals has been most disappointing. As well as Orlando's obstinate commitment to this garbage base package that doesn't fit our personnel.

BTW, you're getting real Satanya-ishy with your "everything sucks" takes. 

Quality take..... 

Sorry, really not trying to be a downer....  not my style.  I'm more about realistic analysis, and understanding what happened on the field vs trying either to blow smoke about how good or be overly negative about how poorly TEXAS played.

If you have followed another one of my threads, I honestly think that TEXAS can Win their remaining 3 Conference Games through more aggressive playcalling on Offense and scoring as many points as possible.  Set up their run game by throwing more early, just like Texas did in both the BlowU and West Virginia games....

Right now, this Defense has lost its confidence and is playing like they have PTSD.  Agree with you that Orlando has done a poor job adjusting to his current personnel and thinking he can playcall his way to success on Defense.  There was one write-up before the West Virginia game questioning what Orlando was doing in last week's practices to prepare his group for the West Virginia game which concerned me the most. (See Below)

 

"It was just another week of practice. There wasn't a ton of emphasis on corrections, so much as just getting back to doing things correctly.

I asked about the poor tackling and heard, "Guys are wanting kill shots instead of wrapping up. You have to wrap up." I asked if not tackling in practice as much as last year has hurt. "Probably need to work on it some more but these guys know how to tackle. Just stay under control. Not every tackle has to be a highlight hit. Not scrimmaging has probably hurt because there are too many bad angles too."

 Herman mentioned two interesting things: Chris Nelson is out, and Anthony Wheeler will be suspended for the first series.

Herman said Jeffrey McCulloch will play the first series in place of Wheeler at mac. This was news to my source which tells me McCulloch didn't get any extra snaps in anticipation of playing there this week. McCulloch does rep there, as well as at every other linebacker position, every week, so he should have an idea of what he'ssupposed to do. We've seen Orlando's defenses begin every game like they're stuck in quicksand so hopefully this change offers them a vine to grab onto.

Wheeler was disciplined for being late to a team lift."

 

AGAIN, sorry if posts sometimes feel like downer.  Remember that the thread title is:

LET'S GET REAL ON TEXAS FB 🤘

Edited November 6, 2018 by LTtxfan

[Hamttx 427]

I’m sorry, I don’t think it really matters. It is ridiculous to believe that college football is a level playing field and coaching is what separates the top teams. It’s players first and foremost. And how they are getting them, and or cycling the ones that don’t work out to get new ones.

Sure, good coaching can win you games. But not compete for a title year after year. When your opponents appear to always be 2 deep at every position. it makes it pretty fucking difficult to compete against them. 

There is a reason all of the Big12 teams appear to have some type of flaw. It is because they all do. A single key injury can sink a Big12 team. And we all seem to either have either a good defense or a good offense, but seldom both. We all get 85 scholarships but how other schools honor them is far different then how our conference runs  business. When a school is capable of placing 5 to 7 players in the NFL draft almost every year, most of which make rosters, something is bullshit. That isn’t just coaching, that is having a talent to begin with.

[staboner 5084]

On 11/4/2018 at 10:59 AM, TornACL said:

We need to sign 8 DL in this class. 

It doesn't matter your scheme or your secondary if you get zero push and zero pass rush out of your front four. 

haven't we been saying we need to sign like a million DL every year? its been this way since forever.

seems like under herman we are getting OL but jesus are we average on the DL. we just toss 3 guys out and ask them to not influence the game at all. 

[LTtxfan 50001]

15 minutes ago, Hamttx said:

I’m sorry, I don’t think it really matters. It is ridiculous to believe that college football is a level playing field and coaching is what separates the top teams. It’s players first and foremost. And how they are getting them, and or cycling the ones that don’t work out to get new ones.

Sure, good coaching can win you games. But not compete for a title year after year. When your opponents appear to always be 2 deep at every position. it makes it pretty fucking difficult to compete against them. 

There is a reason all of the Big12 teams appear to have some type of flaw. It is because they all do. A single key injury can sink a Big12 team. And we all seem to either have either a good defense or a good offense, but seldom both. We all get 85 scholarships but how other schools honor them is far different then how our conference runs  business. When a school is capable of placing 5 to 7 players in the NFL draft almost every year, most of which make rosters, something is bullshit. That isn’t just coaching, that is having a talent to begin with.

Interesting stuff.....

Roster building and adjusting that roster each year is no doubt both Science and Art.  Keeping the same great Coaching leadership around longer has also really benefited BAMA.  

Saw some other interesting stuff on running a successful program from another Poster:

 

What makes Saban so much better at player development than all other coaches?

quote:  If you want to see the field at Bama, you have to eventually play at a 5 star level or your arse is on the bench. The 3 stars that sign on for Bama know this and are surrounded by competition that will push them. If they don't have the heart, they get processed.

Exactly. A five star at another school thinks he’s the crap. A five star at bama is just another guy and is having to beat out 3 more guys that were ranked just as high.

Coach Saban apparently has a unique and semi-proprietary method of evaluating recruits. This was mentioned when he alluded to coaches leaving his employ to coach elsewhere, and taking his system of evaluation with them. 

If you had a way of testing a recruit to see the level of his physical and or mental maturity, you could do a lot of things with lesser ranked recruits. But beyond that, read Clinton-Dix's comments on "the process." It is enlightening. 

In the series of videos prior to the season that showed the Bama practices, I was amazed at how organized and intense the Bama practices were. Saban was on top of every detail and made the players and coaches get it right. 

Of course, having top talent is key, but getting everybody on the same page and executing things in a manner that gives you the best chance of success is what sets Saban apart from most coaches.

-I'm actually a good person to answer this. I used to be in the strength andconditioning field and was involved in the program during the late Shula early Saban era. Also am familiar with a bunch of programs good and bad at different levels(having worked at several before doing something else with my life). 

The answer is simple. Saban runs a program like a good company runs its business. I'm sure some have read the book "The E-Myth" which talks about running even smallbusinesses like a turn-key big company. This is how Saban runs Alabama. It is a neverfailing, always consistent, turn-key operation. Ive never seen any other school run anything similar on a consistent basis. 

The first year at Bama, Saban went to Tommy Moffitt(whom LSU fans stupidly want torun off) and asked him to come be the strength coach at Bama. He refused but sent Cochran, his assistant, instead. Saban wanted to change the culture immediately and permanently so he instructed Cochran to read the program's creed loudly before every single workout in the weight room(which he did every damn time). 

He has a plan and procedure for everything. At other programs countless amounts of time and effort are wasted contemplating decisions and actions that are always pre-made at Alabama. While you and your coaches are debating x and y, having meetings other this and that, Alabama coaches are miles ahead. While your players are waiting on your coaches to figure things out, Bama's players have received hours and hours of more, well organized instruction. While your program is wasting precious amounts of limited time on "changing the culture" Bama never missed a beat and ismiles ahead with better athletes and coaches. There is a manual and a procedure for operation and it is followed. 

Saban has been at Alabama for over a decade while other teams have run through failed coach after failed coach, having to restart the some old process of "changing culture" year after year and having the same problems of being miles behind. I havent seen anything behind the curtains at UGA but I can only assume Kirby has been the only one able to check his ego enough to fully devote his program to the process enough to get it running at an Alabama level. He was there long enough, and cant deny it works better than anything he can personally come up with. 

Ego does more coaches in than anything else and Saban is better at checking his ego than any other coach out there. You may say "bu bu but...I've seen him do this and that argue with coaches..etc etc." Saban had a successful formula of a monstrous front 7 3-4 defense and power rushing attack with game manager QBs. It worked and was working well...yet he scrapped it and adapted as the game did. How many other less successful coaches have rode their ships straight into the ground because they refused to admit their brilliant formula which was once successful couldn't cut it anymore? (looking at you LSU and Auburn) In many ways, Saban is similar to Bear Bryant who also scrapped a system that had won him multiple championships toinstall the Wishbone in 1971. 

So many coaches are so competitive and have such high egos that they cant accept that its the players that must win them games, not their brilliant coaching ability. This is why you see so many "athletes" at QB who have to look over at the sideline to get every single read for them because their coach cant stop trying to play his team like a video game. The best coaches realize they have to coach like hell until game time...and then let go and let the players do their thing. 

Tons of you are gonna say I'm full of shite...I'm not. Studying coaching methods and programs was an obsession of mine for a long time and I saw a lot of programs up close and personal. I was most able to really appreciate what Saban did at Alabama when I started my own business... 

Hope this helps some of you understand.

-Gus Malzahn's greatest nemesis may be his intellect. I truly believe hes is very smart, maybe the smartest in the SEC. He did some incredible things by going back and adapting some of the early football offenses(which were probably more advanced than today's offenses) to the modern game and dominating with it. He single handedly caused Saban to divert the direction of the Alabama program. 

I haven't seen much behind the curtains at Auburn, so you Auburn fans know much more than I do but if I had to guess, he is just being too stubborn with personnel and the offense. When the pieces fall together, they can be all but unstoppable but when they aren't all there, he apparently is just not gonna adapt. Its my only guess for the roller coaster ride you see at Auburn every few seasons.

-Alabama's player evaluation models, strength program, player development/practice manuals are sitting in almost every football program in the country.

-He demands perfection from his coaches more than his players. He holds everyone accountable for what happens in games and practices.

-% of 5  stars drafted in first round ..Bama 48.3% ...Rest of college football 17%.

-A few years back, I read an article about these manuals that Saban wrote that are position-specific and body type-specific, and are pretty thick. It lays out a diet and exercise regimen, sleep regimen, etc. There was a daily thought or quote included that the player was encouraged to reflect on. Each player got a manual and were expected to live it. 

I'm guess our head coach is familiar and fully aware of Saban's techniques, since he's apparently doing something right.

https://www.secrant.com/rant/sec-football/what-makes-saban-so-much-better-at-player-development-than-all-other-coaches/79961067/

Edited November 6, 2018 by LTtxfan

[XYZ 2154]

Member when we had Hampton and Rogers at DT? That was cool.

[PencilPusher 454]

Thought I would put this here as I read the first page of the Todd Orlando sucks thread and it was definitely monkeys flinging poop. 

Baseball has a great metric tool in evaluating player contributions called WAR (Wins over replacement). It effectively tells you how your players a contributing to wins above what an average level replacement player. Look at the Red Sox and Astros and you will see a bunch of guys in the plus column. There isn't a metric like this for college football, but the eyeball test can give you a good idea.

Last year, the Texas defense finished #21 in S&P+ on defense. There were three things Texas did well: Stop the Run, Third Down Defense (Texas was number 1 in the country in S&P for this category), and create turnovers (forced 26 last year). I don't have to quote the stats for 2018 for anyone to obviously see that Texas isn't anywhere close to that. What happened? Attrition of course. 

Run defense - On the defensive line, Texas replaced a + WAR guy in Poona Ford with a replacement level player in Chris Nelson. Nelson has been fine and he has played at a replacement player level. But he's not elite and the only player on the front line that you could argue has been a + WAR guy is Omenihu. Hager has at best been replacement level and perhaps below and the backups haven't distinguished. Then you get to the linebackers and the combo of Malik Jefferson and Gary Johnson was a significant +WAR duo last year. Gary Johnson and Anthony Wheeler, not so much. In fact, Wheeler's performance has been so negative that the LB corps as a whole would have a -WAR for the year, even if they kick ass the last 3 weeks. And what has been somewhat overlooked is the contributions that Jason Hall made in the Joker role last year when Texas went to the lightning package because that sealed the deal in terms of how effective the defense was. BJ Foster will probably be a plus player in his time on the 40 acres, but he isn't that as a true freshman and certainly hasn't been as effective as Hall was. To run a true spread busting defense you have to defend the run with 6 or less players. Last year, Texas was good at it because there were + players in those roles.......this year it is a resounding no.

3rd down defense - From first to pretty bad is pretty bad, but the worst is the fact that Texas is in the bottom quartile in putting teams in 3rd in long (see run defense above) and even when Texas gets teams in 3rd and long, they are still converting at a robust clip. This is where you have to pick on the DB's some. Boyd has largely been a + player this year and Stearns started the year fantastically (actually replacing the + production from Deshon Elliot) but has hit the freshman wall and his play has dropped off...so much so that the last two weeks he has been on the negative side of the ledger. Davis and Jones have missed time both from injuries (and other stupidity) and while both have generally played at a replacement level, their backups at times have not. I think Cook should be a good player, but again as a true frosh there are growing pains. Locke was a - WAR player last year and as a senior hasn't improved but Texas has no replacement level players at that position right now. West Virginia won largely because Texas had to go long stretches of the game with 3 true freshman in the secondary and 2 significant - WAR players on the field.

Turnovers - Texas only have 11 so far this year. Some of this is bad luck...believe Texas has only recovered 30% of the fumbles forced, which is statistically low. But, Texas isn't forcing them either. Deshon Elliot was a machine last year....6 INT's and 3 forced fumbles. No one on this years team is even close to that production. Caden Sterns has 4 INT's,  but that's pretty much it. Other than TCU and OU (7 of our 11 this year), Texas has not created much in any game and have been shut out the last 2 weeks against offenses that actually had a propensity to turn themselves over. 1 or 2 in either game might have won it for Texas.

Yep...its a talent issue. Texas needs 2 or 3 more incredible defensive classes to operate at a championship level. As we look to next year, I would expect that the defense will be slightly better and bolstered by the fact that OU and WVa will be replacing significant parts of their offense. However, it will be 2020 before the defense can return to an elite level unless a lot of players make a big leap. Given the amount of experience some of the young freshmen have received this year, the secondary may get there at some point next year, but the front (DL and LB) will be of concern. Playing time for some of the "redshirts" on DL and LB over the next 4 games will help significantly. 

As for the remainder of this year, the good news is that Texas will see offenses that are less capable of exploiting all of the weaknesses that were laid bare the last 2 weeks. So the defense should appear improved, even if it really isn't.

Oh and of course........

[irishtexan 11712]

21 hours ago, Hamttx said:

I’m sorry, I don’t think it really matters. It is ridiculous to believe that college football is a level playing field and coaching is what separates the top teams. It’s players first and foremost. And how they are getting them, and or cycling the ones that don’t work out to get new ones.

Sure, good coaching can win you games. But not compete for a title year after year. When your opponents appear to always be 2 deep at every position. it makes it pretty fucking difficult to compete against them. 

There is a reason all of the Big12 teams appear to have some type of flaw. It is because they all do. A single key injury can sink a Big12 team. And we all seem to either have either a good defense or a good offense, but seldom both. We all get 85 scholarships but how other schools honor them is far different then how our conference runs  business. When a school is capable of placing 5 to 7 players in the NFL draft almost every year, most of which make rosters, something is bullshit. That isn’t just coaching, that is having a talent to begin with.

I hear what your saying, and Pencil Pusher articulated the thought very well in the above post. But I come back to the fact that teams like TCU and Oklahoma State routinely kick our ass with our leftovers. If you don't have +WAR players at key positions, you have to scheme around that. Stubbornly sticking with a scheme that requires less talented players to play like badasses is just fucking stupid. If we have shitty DLs and LBs and can't defend the run with 6 players in the box, and teams keep running it down our fucking throats, we have to scheme around that. 

I go back to Manny fucking Diaz. That motherfucker would not change his scheme and he got demoted mid-season. And Greg Robinson came in and shook things up and the defense played significantly better. So it's not only the talent. It's also the coaches.

[LTtxfan 50001]

+1000  to PencilPusher and irishtexan's posts

And for a smile this morning.....

Edited November 7, 2018 by LTtxfan

[Skipper 6411]

2 hours ago, irishtexan said:

I hear what your saying, and Pencil Pusher articulated the thought very well in the above post. But I come back to the fact that teams like TCU and Oklahoma State routinely kick our ass with our leftovers. If you don't have +WAR players at key positions, you have to scheme around that. Stubbornly sticking with a scheme that requires less talented players to play like badasses is just fucking stupid. If we have shitty DLs and LBs and can't defend the run with 6 players in the box, and teams keep running it down our fucking throats, we have to scheme around that. 

I go back to Manny fucking Diaz. That motherfucker would not change his scheme and he got demoted mid-season. And Greg Robinson came in and shook things up and the defense played significantly better. So it's not only the talent. It's also the coaches.

Agreed although it's pretty hard to scheme around an offense like WVU has period, but especially with our personnel.  It should be much easier to scheme against Tech with Duffy at QB.  Orlando needs to earn his money this week.  Figure out a way to stop the run and make him beat you throwing.  Kliff is no dumbass either so will be interesting to see how he counters.  Assuming Jones is still out we really need Sterns to get some confidence back.  He's been flat out bad for 4 straight games.

[LTtxfan 50001]

Putting this in here for PencilPusher since he likes analysis....

The last TD of the West Virginia game was such a comedy of errors on Defense that it's kinda funny. A complete analysis of that play starts in the 26th minute below......

https://m.soundcloud.com/longhornblitz/longhorn-blitz-ep-59-another-close-loss

Edited November 8, 2018 by LTtxfan

[LTtxfan 50001]

 Win on the road against Tech with last minute 35+yard TD pass in same spot as Crabtree's Dang TD.........    7-3 Record with Win over BlowU too!!!

Back in August I would take...... And now I'll Take It..... 7-3 Babeeey

Edited November 11, 2018 by LTtxfan

[LTtxfan 50001]

I would expect that CDC will review this Football Staff's structure moving forward.  Things to do:

1) Quality Control Staff seems light and may lack experience for both gameplanning and opponent analysis.  Not sure what Rules are on number of Analysts & Quality Control Coaches allowed, but this group needs improvement.....

2) All assistant coaches have expiring contracts March 2019 except for coach Beck (Mar2020), coach Orlando (Mar2021), and Coach Hand (Mar2021). (Unsure about Coach Mcknight's contract expiration.)

3) Review Coach Herman's performance

FOOTBALL
Tom Herman, Head Coach
Tim Beck, Offensive Coordinator / Quarterbacks
Stan Drayton, Associate Head Coach / Run Game Coordinator / Running Backs
Oscar Giles, Assistant Coach / Defensive Line
Herb Hand, Assistant Coach / Co-offensive Coordinator
Corby Meekins, Assistant Coach / Tight Ends
Drew Mehringer, Assistant Coach / Pass Game Coordinator / Wide Receivers
Craig Naivar, Assistant Coach / Special Teams Coordinator / Safeties
Todd Orlando, Defensive Coordinator / Linebackers
Derek Warehime, Assistant Coach / Offensive Line
Jason Washington, Assistant Coach / Recruiting Coordinator / Cornerbacks
Austin Bell, Quality Control Coach   Kyle Coats, Quality Control Coach, Defense   Casey Horny, Quality Control Coach   Michael Huff, Quality Control Coach, Defense   Roosevelt Maggitt, Quality Control Coach   Jordan Salkin, Quality Control Coach
STRENGTH & CONDITIONING: FOOTBALL   Yancy McKnight, Head Coach   Scott McLafferty, Assistant Coach   Clayton Oyster, Assistant Coach   Adam Potts, Assistant Coach   Nate Peoples, Assistant Coach

[ztejas 44228]

Orlando deserves another season at least. Y'all are being too harsh. He has had absolute dick to work with the past 2 games and as a result the D he developed at the start of the season is suffering where it's missing play-makers (we've also played 3 pretty damn good offenses - 2 of which on the road).

Our D last year was the only thing that could have won us 8 games. Get these seniors out of here, pump up the teenagers, bring some freshman in on the 2 and 3 deep and we will be one of the top 2 defenses in the B12 next season.