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S&P+ rankings: Overperformance or overcorrection?

satyanash

By satyanash
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Dahobbs
Dahobbs

Fozzz is a fucking idiot. 

Magus Ossis
Magus Ossis

A model that drops the winner and sustains the loser of a game needs adjusting.

NeverMarryAStripper
NeverMarryAStripper

Exactly.  Just because you beat someone doesn't mean than you can beat them.

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5,793

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Posted
6 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

How do we know how strong your conference is if the schools don't play each other or other P5 schools? I mean we know they can beat FCS and G5 schools most of the time...

Well, you assume the secsecsec is the best and the Big 10 is the second best and just roll from there. 

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8,349

Posted
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On 1/2/2020 at 3:31 PM, texifornia said:

Ok what the shit is that lineup of teams

 

A backwater line-up. When I was a really little kid in Nashville (mid-'70s), I was a Rams, Reds, Rockets and Horns fan. Everybody else in Nashville back then was like that, though most were bandwagon Steelers or Cowboys fans. Everybody in Nashville is some different SEC team or other -- the Vols are mainly for the t-shirt rabble.  

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JBJ

JBJ 3,654

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 12/13/2019 at 7:51 PM, satyanash said:

I find it both odd and hilarious that SP+ is at its best against the spread early in the season, when preseason polls get the most weight. You'd expect a model to get more accurate with more data, but Connelly's seems to do the opposite? IDK

Most computer polls do this.   It's not that they don't get more accurate, it's that the general betting population goes from super dumb to crazy accurate, so the grading curve sharpens as the season goes on.

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NoName

NoName 16,351

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11 hours ago, WBT said:

Kind of pointless to even put his numbers out with the lack of nonconference games this year

really?

the way his system works is that it uses preseason projections that are phased out over time as more games are played. this means it works if there is the B10 starting in October or November vs everyone else playing from a couple of weeks ago, etc.

so...no. it's not "pointless" - my guess is that this is how most projection systems that are halfway decent work, just using a different number of games played before the flip from projections to results

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32,859

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On 9/14/2020 at 8:49 AM, NoName said:

really?

the way his system works is that it uses preseason projections that are phased out over time as more games are played. this means it works if there is the B10 starting in October or November vs everyone else playing from a couple of weeks ago, etc.

so...no. it's not "pointless" - my guess is that this is how most projection systems that are halfway decent work, just using a different number of games played before the flip from projections to results

Connelly has stated that SP+ never completely phases out the preseason ratings.

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GabrielsHorn

GabrielsHorn 2,183

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I enjoy how UTEP throttled ULM on the road (outgained them by 300 yards, held them to 0-11 on 3rd down whereas went 11-17 on 3rd down, TO margin was equal), and the model didn't move them up (still bottom of the teams currently playing behind ULM). 

"It's a predictive model", blah, blah, but that's really surprising, especially in a part of the rankings where you would expect to see a bit more movement. 

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Fud

Fud 9,552

Posted
Posted

Rankings

Spoiler
 
  1. Alabama 30.7 44.2 (4) 13.5 (4)
  2. Clemson 28.6 40.9 (9) 12.2 (3)
  3. Oklahoma 28.0 46.6 (1) 18.6 (16)
  4. Ohio St. 25.0 46.5 (2) 21.5 (38)
  5. Oregon 24.2 41.0 (8) 16.9 (9)
  6. Georgia 24.1 39.7 (15) 15.6 (5)
  7. Iowa St. 23.1 41.5 (6) 18.4 (15)
  8. Miami 22.7 40.5 (11) 17.8 (13)
  9. Wisconsin 22.4 34.7 (36) 12.2 (2)
  10. N. Carolina 21.7 44.8 (3) 23.1 (43)
  11. Washington 21.2 39.8 (14) 18.6 (17)
  12. Florida 21.2 41.5 (5) 20.4 (29)
  13. Texas A&M 20.9 37.3 (21) 16.4 (8)
  14. Penn St. 20.5 36.2 (29) 15.7 (6)
  15. Cincinnati 20.0 36.0 (30) 15.9 (7)
  16. Iowa 19.7 31.4 (51) 11.7 (1)
  17. USC 19.6 39.9 (13) 20.3 (28)
  18. Arizona St. 18.0 37.1 (23) 19.1 (21)
  19. Utah 17.7 34.7 (35) 17.0 (10)
  20. Texas 17.6 38.5 (18) 20.9 (34)
  21. UCLA 15.6 41.2 (7) 25.6 (58)
  22. Louisiana 15.3 36.2 (26) 21.0 (35)
  23. Michigan 15.3 35.3 (32) 20.1 (27)
  24. Ole Miss 14.9 40.6 (10) 25.7 (59)
  25. Notre Dame 14.8 34.8 (34) 20.1 (26)
  26. LSU 14.6 38.0 (19) 23.3 (45)
  27. Indiana 14.4 34.8 (33) 20.4 (31)
  28. Auburn 14.2 33.5 (38) 19.3 (22)
  29. Oklahoma St. 14.1 31.4 (49) 17.4 (12)
  30. Nebraska 14.0 32.7 (43) 18.7 (19)
  31. Minnesota 13.6 37.4 (20) 23.8 (48)
  32. Maryland 12.3 32.3 (45) 20.0 (25)
  33. TCU 12.1 31.1 (53) 19.0 (20)
  34. W. Virginia 12.0 29.1 (67) 17.1 (11)
  35. App. St. 11.2 30.9 (54) 19.7 (24)
  36. Va. Tech 11.0 36.2 (27) 25.2 (57)
  37. Coastal Caro. 10.4 36.2 (28) 25.8 (60)
  38. UCF 10.0 38.7 (17) 28.7 (74)
  39. Boise St. 9.3 33.4 (39) 24.0 (50)
  40. Purdue 8.9 35.7 (31) 26.9 (63)
  41. Arkansas 8.8 31.4 (50) 22.6 (41)
  42. Liberty 8.3 36.3 (25) 28.0 (68)
  43. Pittsburgh 8.3 29.2 (65) 21.0 (36)
  44. Miss. St. 8.1 28.8 (69) 20.6 (32)
  45. NC St. 8.1 29.0 (68) 21.0 (37)
  46. Wash. St. 7.8 40.4 (12) 32.6 (102)
  47. Louisville 7.6 38.9 (16) 31.3 (93)
  48. Ga. Tech 6.3 29.8 (61) 23.5 (47)
  49. Tennessee 6.1 28.3 (73) 22.2 (40)
  50. Colorado 6.0 30.6 (57) 24.6 (54)
  51. Baylor 5.8 25.2 (90) 19.5 (23)
  52. BYU 5.7 36.8 (24) 31.1 (90)
  53. Memphis 5.2 29.8 (60) 24.6 (55)
  54. California 5.2 29.7 (62) 24.5 (53)
  55. Tulsa 5.0 25.4 (89) 20.4 (30)
  56. Virginia 4.9 31.6 (47) 26.7 (62)
  57. Kentucky 4.8 28.1 (75) 23.3 (44)
  58. Missouri 4.7 29.6 (63) 24.9 (56)
  59. Michigan St. 4.6 23.3 (94) 18.7 (18)
  60. Oregon St. 4.5 37.2 (22) 32.7 (104)
  61. Florida St. 4.4 32.8 (41) 28.5 (70)
  62. Boston Coll. 2.9 34.4 (37) 31.5 (95)
  63. Kansas St. 2.6 29.9 (59) 27.4 (65)
  64. Wake Forest 2.5 30.7 (56) 28.2 (69)
  65. SMU 2.5 32.5 (44) 30.1 (85)
  66. Troy 2.0 26.1 (86) 24.1 (51)
  67. Tulane 1.9 33.3 (40) 31.4 (94)
  68. Stanford 1.6 31.9 (46) 30.2 (87)
  69. Houston 1.4 29.4 (64) 28.0 (67)
  70. Texas Tech 1.2 29.1 (66) 27.9 (66)
  71. Ball St. -0.4 31.1 (52) 31.6 (96)
  72. Army -0.6 23.4 (93) 24.0 (49)
  73. UAB -0.9 20.7 (106) 21.6 (39)
  74. Nevada -1.1 28.7 (70) 29.8 (83)
  75. Northwestern-1.1 17.2 (124) 18.3 (14)
  76. Georgia St.-1.9 30.3 (58) 32.2 (101)
  77. Buffalo -2.0 27.0 (80) 29.0 (79)
  78. Fresno St.-2.1 30.8 (55) 32.9 (105)
  79. Toledo -2.1 26.7 (83) 28.8 (76)
  80. Wyoming-2.1 20.7 (107) 22.8 (42)
  81. SJSU -2.3 26.6 (84) 28.9 (78)
  82. CMU -2.4 27.3 (78) 29.7 (82)
  83. Illinois -2.6 28.7 (72) 31.2 (91)
  84. SDSU -3.0 17.7 (123) 20.8 (33)
  85. WMU -3.1 32.8 (42) 35.9 (114)
  86. Marshall -3.3 20.2 (110) 23.5 (46)
  87. UTSA -4.4 27.3 (77) 31.8 (97)
  88. Ga. Southern -4.7 22.5 (98) 27.2 (64)
  89. Ohio -5.2 26.8 (81) 32.0 (100)
  90. S. Carolina -5.3 26.0 (87) 31.3 (92)
  91. ECU -5.6 26.3 (85) 31.9 (98)
  92. Arizona -5.7 27.8 (76) 33.5 (106)
  93. Air Force -6.3 23.9 (92) 30.1 (86)
  94. Rutgers -6.9 22.5 (97) 29.4 (81)
  95. Syracuse -7.0 21.7 (99) 28.7 (73)
  96. Colorado St. -7.2 21.5 (102) 28.6 (72)
  97. FAU -8.0 20.7 (105) 28.7 (75)
  98. WKU -8.1 17.8 (121) 25.9 (61)
  99. Arkansas St. -8.6 28.2 (74) 36.7 (117)
  100. Navy -9.2 20.1 (112) 29.4 (80)
  101. So. Miss -9.3 21.2 (103) 30.5 (88)
  102. Duke -9.3 19.3 (113) 28.6 (71)
  103. Rice -9.4 14.9 (127) 24.3 (52)
  104. USF -9.9 18.9 (115) 28.8 (77)
  105. Hawaii -10.2 24.9 (91) 35.1 (111)
  106. N. Texas -10.5 27.2 (79) 37.8 (119)
  107. EMU -11.2 31.5 (48) 42.7 (127)
  108. Vanderbilt -12.7 21.1 (104) 33.7 (107)
  109. Texas St. -13.1 25.5 (88) 38.5 (120)
  110. Miami-OH -13.2 23.3 (95) 36.5 (116)
  111. Kent St. -13.2 28.7 (71) 41.9 (123)
  112. NIU -13.7 18.2 (119) 31.9 (99)
  113. Kansas -13.9 18.7 (116) 32.7 (103)
  114. FIU -14.0 16.8 (125) 30.7 (89)
  115. MTSU -14.1 21.7 (100) 35.8 (113)
  116. S. Alabama -14.5 21.6 (101) 36.2 (115)
  117. Charlotte -15.2 26.7 (82) 42.0 (124)
  118. La. Tech -15.4 18.5 (118) 33.9 (108)
  119. Temple -15.9 18.7 (117) 34.6 (110)
  120. ODU -15.9 14.0 (128) 29.9 (84)
  121. Utah St. -17.5 20.1 (111) 37.6 (118)
  122. Akron -18.7 16.6 (126) 35.3 (112)
  123. UNLV -19.5 19.2 (114) 38.7 (121)
  124. New Mexico -20.0 22.8 (96) 42.8 (128)
  125. BGSU -20.9 13.1 (129) 34.0 (109)
  126. UL-Monroe -21.6 20.5 (109) 42.1 (125)
  127. UConn -22.3 17.7 (122) 40.0 (122)
  128. UTEP -24.5 17.9 (120) 42.4 (126)
  129. UMass -24.9 20.6 (108) 45.6 (130)
  130. NMSU -31.5 12.2 (130) 43.8 (129)

 

 

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Fud

Fud 9,552

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Posted

Texas is 20th, and 18th on offense, 34th on defense

Opponents

3) Oklahoma (1, 16)
7) Iowa Steak (6, 15)
22) Louisiana (26, 35)
29) Oklahoma State (49, 12)
33) TCU (53, 20)
34) West Virginia (67, 11)
41) Arkansas (50, 41)
51) Baylor (90, 23)
63) Kansas State (59, 65)
70) Texas Tech (66, 66)
103) Rice (127, 52)
113) Kansas (116, 103)

The top 10 units that we'll see this year per preseason SP+

OU Offense (1)
ISU Offense (6)
WVU Defense (11)
OSU Defense (12)
ISU Defense (15)
OU Defense (16)
TCU Defense (20)
Baylor Defense (23)
Louisiana Offense (26)
Louisiana Defense (35)

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NoName

NoName 16,351

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Week 2 picks. Last week we were projected to beat Louisiana 32-26.

 

I am really interested to see what happens in the TEX @ ARK game.

SP+ has Arky at 45 and FEI has them at 79 (preseason had them at 91!) with a not good defense in either measure.

if our offense is about where SP+ (9) and FEI (4) have them pegged it could pretty quickly snowball and be a blowout.

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satyanash

satyanash 14,484

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Posted

Rankings after week 1:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/41107120/college-football-2024-week-1-sp+-rankings-takeaways

Quote

There's always a bit of nuance to understanding Week 1 results, especially when 60% of them are from FBS-versus-FCS games and only a few power conference teams actually played each other. But we can at least pull a little bit of the proverbial signal out of the proverbial noise.

Alabama was particularly dominant against a Western Kentucky team that started the season among the top 10 in the Group of 5, and Texas misfired for a single drive before pummeling Colorado State. Ohio State, on the other hand, stumbled around for 25 minutes against Akron before stepping on the gas. Oregon could never quite put away a good FCS team (Idaho, which began the year 13th in my FCS SP+ rankings), while Ole Miss and Tennessee utterly destroyed Furman (17th) and Chattanooga (28th), respectively.

I always say it's how you play that matters, not who. The logic behind that always gets stretched a little bit early in the season, but SP+ still thinks it learned some things and moved teams around accordingly. The top of the rankings have quite the SEC flavor out of the gate. Below are this week's SP+ rankings. What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

Post-Week 1 SP+ Rankings

Team Rating Offense Defense ST
1. Georgia (1-0) 34.5 45.1 (2) 10.7 (5) 0.1 (21)
2. Alabama (1-0) 30.3 44.0 (4) 13.7 (7) 0.0 (58)
3. Texas (1-0) 29.6 44.8 (3) 15.4 (11) 0.1 (3)
4. Ole Miss (1-0) 27.6 45.1 (1) 17.4 (14) 0.0 (97)
5. Ohio St. (1-0) 27.5 35.0 (21) 7.6 (2) 0.1 (4)
6. Penn St. (1-0) 25.3 35.3 (18) 10.0 (4) -0.1 (109)
7. Missouri (1-0) 24.4 41.1 (8) 16.9 (13) 0.1 (15)
8. Oregon (1-0) 22.8 42.4 (6) 19.5 (25) 0.0 (77)
9. Tennessee (1-0) 22.7 40.0 (9) 17.4 (15) 0.0 (46)
10. Notre Dame (1-0) 22.1 36.6 (17) 14.6 (9) 0.0 (45)
11. Oklahoma (1-0) 21.5 37.3 (15) 15.9 (12) 0.1 (19)
12. Michigan (1-0) 20.5 29.1 (56) 8.7 (3) 0.1 (8)
13. Utah (1-0) 19.1 34.2 (25) 15.2 (10) 0.0 (53)
14. Kansas St. (1-0) 18.8 36.9 (16) 18.2 (19) 0.1 (16)
15. Miami (1-0) 17.2 38.4 (14) 21.1 (32) -0.1 (113)
16. Auburn (1-0) 17.0 35.3 (19) 18.4 (21) 0.1 (36)
17. Iowa (1-0) 15.5 19.7 (108) 4.3 (1) 0.0 (60)
18. Louisville (1-0) 15.5 33.3 (33) 17.8 (17) 0.0 (70)
19. Oklahoma St. (1-0) 15.5 39.1 (11) 23.7 (39) 0.1 (38)
20. LSU (0-1) 15.4 41.4 (7) 26.0 (56) 0.0 (68)
21. USC (1-0) 14.3 43.3 (5) 29.0 (77) 0.0 (55)
22. Kentucky (1-0) 13.2 33.0 (36) 19.9 (27) 0.1 (2)
23. Washington (1-0) 13.1 35.2 (20) 22.0 (37) 0.0 (71)
24. Texas A&M (0-1) 12.8 33.1 (35) 20.4 (28) 0.1 (23)
25. Kansas (1-0) 12.7 38.5 (13) 25.8 (53) -0.1 (103)

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Not a Sock

Not a Sock 2,313

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 9/8/2021 at 11:54 AM, NoName said:

I am really interested to see what happens in the TEX @ ARK game.

SP+ has Arky at 45 and FEI has them at 79 (preseason had them at 91!) with a not good defense in either measure.

if our offense is about where SP+ (9) and FEI (4) have them pegged it could pretty quickly snowball and be a blowout.

Bruh this was the last time the thread was bumped. A fucking PTSD triggers warning needs to be attached to this thread.

Edited by Not a Sock
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