S&P+ rankings: Overperformance or overcorrection?

[Fozzz 152]

hmm...so Texas jumps nine spots from their 32nd preseason raking even though they only managed a 1.0 YPP margin over the 86th SP+ (preseason) ranked team?   Smacks of bias.  

[Girdwood 118]

1 minute ago, Fozzz said:

hmm...so Texas jumps nine spots from their 32nd preseason raking even though they only managed a 1.0 YPP margin over the 86th SP+ (preseason) ranked team?   Smacks of bias.  

How do you post with Connolly’s dick in your mouth dude?

[Pig Bellmont 8691]

3 minutes ago, Girdwood said:

How do you post with Connolly’s dick in your mouth dude?

Just put him on ignore. He gets off attempting to troll. I honestly don’t know why people engage 

[Fozzz 152]

I really hate the fact that he moved to ESPN.  Their website is such a nuisance to use and you can already tell he's not going to put out nearly as much stuff anymore (and transparency and quantity of content was never his strong-suit).  

[Huckleberry 32694]

"crazy turnovers"

Turnover #1 - Kelly Bryant is not actually a good runner. He keeps and gets absolutely popped by a Wyoming DB. Helmet on the ball as Bryant does not have two hands on it going into traffic. Not a crazy turnover.
Turnover #2 - Missed handoff. This isn't something Wyoming did to earn a turnover, but it is absolutely something Missouri did wrong to lose a turnover. Furthermore, it could have been a TD, should have been nothing, and ended up a field goal (Wyoming CB is slower than Bryant so would have been a TD against a team with athletes, but Bryant committed a horse collar on the tackle so they got a field goal instead of nothing). 3 points from that fiasco was a perfectly fair result.
Turnover #3 - One play after a blatant pushoff by their tight end, Bryant scrambles, heads to his left, stops, throws across the field into the end zone where there are three Wyoming defenders. It is intercepted. This is not a crazy turnover, this is a horrific play that rightfully ended in a turnover.

Connelly is correct that 2 of the 3 turnovers were not a result of anything good that Wyoming did. However, all three were the result of terrible play by Missouri.
 

[Valmy77 13093]

6 hours ago, Fozzz said:

hmm...so Texas jumps nine spots from their 32nd preseason raking even though they only managed a 1.0 YPP margin over the 86th SP+ (preseason) ranked team?   Smacks of bias.  

Smacks of SP+ being bullshit.

[satyanash 14280]

In an interesting twist, both SP+ and ESPN's FPI have Penn State as the favourite to win the Big Ten East (over tOSU and Michigan).

 

[HtownHorn 14468]

Penn State is likely going to run up the score again this week against Buffalo. It's what that piece of shit does. Then struggles to beat anyone that has numbers next to their name.

[satyanash 14280]

 

[bigcigar 1161]

17 minutes ago, satyanash said:

 

42-28. So if his model values our offense enough to project 28 against that vaunted defense, I like our chances. Returning production appears to be a significant driver of early season ratings. There’s no way in hell LSU scores 42 on us.

[Huckleberry 32694]

Best news in that tweet is that Hawaii has a home game. I love me some college football all day until 3 in the morning.

[sushihorn 3233]

35 minutes ago, satyanash said:

 

A lot of books now have Texas as a 6 point dog at home.  Most of them have the moneyline at +200 or more.

[Fozzz 152]

34 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

A lot of books now have Texas as a 6 point dog at home.  Most of them have the moneyline at +200 or more.

Wasn't it initially around 3.5?

[NeverMarryAStripper 21781]

Yes, but all the lsu alums pawned their air boats to bet on the tigers

[Fozzz 152]

Quote

Having receivers who can block really well has turned into one of college football's most underrated and useful luxuries, but blocking LSU's defensive backs and linebackers is different than blocking Louisiana Tech's. The Tigers allowed only 5 yards per completion on passes thrown behind the line last season -- they allowed only 6.8 on passes thrown within 10 yards of the line.

Texas' short passing game could be the most important factor Saturday. The Longhorns might not be able to run the ball efficiently, both because LSU's defensive front is awesome and because, thanks to injuries, the UT running back corps consists of basically Keaontay Ingram and a bunch of dudes who moved from other positions. Since this is a big game, it's safe to assume Ehlinger will be prepared to carry the ball 15 to 20 times himself, but LSU's run front might be the best Texas has faced under Herman.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27542102/the-four-keys-lsu-texas-everything-else-watch-week-2

If we cannot run the ball effectively then I do not see us winning or even covering the spread.

 

[bigcigar 1161]

3 hours ago, Fozzz said:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27542102/the-four-keys-lsu-texas-everything-else-watch-week-2

If we cannot run the ball effectively then I do not see us winning or even covering the spread.

 

Stop being a shitbird, Bill.

What if LSU can’t run the ball effectively? Something they failed to do unlike Texas...even though Texas barely tapped into its QB run game.

[satyanash 14280]

 

[HOOK'EMHOOAH 1606]

3 hours ago, Fozzz said:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27542102/the-four-keys-lsu-texas-everything-else-watch-week-2

If we cannot run the ball effectively then I do not see us winning or even covering the spread.

 

Why dont you try not being a whiny little bitch?

[Valmy77 13093]

We don't score easy points. Everything is a long drive.

But last year that served us pretty well.

[Fozzz 152]

7 minutes ago, bigcigar said:

Stop being a shitbird, Bill.

What if LSU can’t run the ball effectively? Something they failed to do unlike Texas...even though Texas barely tapped into its QB run game.

I think LSU will struggle moving the ball through the A/B gaps.  However, I have little faith that we can stop them from dinking/dunking and working the edge, where LaTech had a lot of success.  

[Fozzz 152]

1 minute ago, HOOK'EMHOOAH said:

Why dont you try not being a whiny little bitch?

I'm not assuming that we won't be able to run the ball, particularly with Sam getting 10-20 carries or whatever.  I don't know how that will play out.  However, if we can't then yeah...we're probably not going to win.  

[Fozzz 152]

It's a good thing most Texas fans are not like the crybaby bitches posting itt.  

[Drew 2331]

So Texas will struggle to score, but LSU won't.  Okay.

[Drew 2331]

Not sure why you felt the need to neg Fozz, but okay.

[Tex Long 4342]

17 minutes ago, Drew said:

Not sure why you felt the need to neg Fozz, but okay.

Smells like corn dogs?

[texifornia 56479]

5 hours ago, Fozzz said:

I think LSU will struggle moving the ball through the A/B gaps.  However, I have little faith that we can stop them from dinking/dunking and working the edge, where LaTech had a lot of success.  

Lol "we"

[Fozzz 152]

2 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Lol "we"

You don't think I'm a Texas fan or do you just dislike it when fans use the term "we" when referring to a team?

[Jojen 31]

On 9/3/2019 at 3:52 PM, Fozzz said:

hmm...so Texas jumps nine spots from their 32nd preseason raking even though they only managed a 1.0 YPP margin over the 86th SP+ (preseason) ranked team?   Smacks of bias.  

 

5 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

You don't think I'm a Texas fan or do you just dislike it when fans use the term "we" when referring to a team?

Hmm...

5 hours ago, Fozzz said:

It's a good thing most Texas fans are not like the crybaby bitches posting itt.  

You’ve been negging everyone that disagrees with you.

[Fozzz 152]

The first post was tongue-in-cheek and I don't see how being a Texas fan is inconsistent with not wishing to be embarrassed by the petulant behavior of other Texas fans irl.  If anything, the third post implies the opposite of your contention.  Also, while I don't normally neg, I have made an exception for this thread due to being bombarded with negs from whiny brats incapable of countenancing an opinion varying from their own.  

[Girdwood 118]

2 hours ago, Fozzz said:

The first post was tongue-in-cheek and I don't see how being a Texas fan is inconsistent with not wishing to be embarrassed by the petulant behavior of other Texas fans irl.  If anything, the third post implies the opposite of your contention.  Also, while I don't normally neg, I have made an exception for this thread due to being bombarded with negs from whiny brats incapable of countenancing an opinion varying from their own.  

[Magus Ossis 2783]

BC has his favorite picks against the lines up. You don’t have to click. SP+ says:

LSU -6 over @Texas. I doubt it

Marshall +11 @Boise

Cincinnati +16 @tOSU

@Michigan -22.5 over Army

Aggy +17.5 @Clemson. I doubt this, too

@Colorado +2.5 and straight up over Nebraska

Diaz -5.5 @Mack Brown. Redemption beats letdown or HC over asst 2.0?

UNT +3.5 @Buechele

@Washington -14 over Cal

@USC -1 over Stanford. Which one is tanking faster?

[texifornia 56479]

On 9/6/2019 at 8:54 PM, Magus Ossis said:

BC has his favorite picks against the lines up. You don’t have to click. SP+ says:

LSU -6 over @Texas. I doubt it

Marshall +11 @Boise

Cincinnati +16 @tOSU

@Michigan -22.5 over Army

Aggy +17.5 @Clemson. I doubt this, too

@Colorado +2.5 and straight up over Nebraska

Diaz -5.5 @Mack Brown. Redemption beats letdown or HC over asst 2.0?

UNT +3.5 @Buechele

@Washington -14 over Cal

@USC -1 over Stanford. Which one is tanking faster?

Waylp. 

Anyway, we're #24 now.

 

[texifornia 56479]

 

[satyanash 14280]

 

[Valmy77 13093]

I would say our defense is the key, but Eagles and Duvernay certainly don't hurt.

[texifornia 56479]

 

[C-Man 27029]

Waylp. 
Anyway, we're #24 now.
 

So his system’s favorite picks went 5-5 last week

[Fozzz 152]

On 9/8/2019 at 2:37 PM, texifornia said:

Waylp. 

Anyway, we're #24 now.

 

Shit’s rigged to boost Texas. 

[texifornia 56479]

1 minute ago, C-Man said:

 

So his system’s favorite picks went 5-5 last week

 

Yeah, but he has us covering a 30-point spread this week so hooray Bill!

[Ricky Butler 2657]

33 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Shit’s rigged to boost Texas. 

No, we just got better from week one until now.

[Fozzz 152]

3 minutes ago, Ricky Butler said:

No, we just got better from week one until now.

I imagine every team improves from week one to week two dumb dumb. 

[Ricky Butler 2657]

11 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

I imagine every team improves from week one to week two dumb dumb. 

You’ll have to ask Bill. 

[gmr548 16482]

On 9/8/2019 at 3:31 PM, texifornia said:

 

Just LOL at Clemson. That and Virginia at 10 percent, even with ND on the schedule, says the ACC is total dogshit. Not that I necessarily disagree, but that's saying it's basically a G5 outside of Clemson.

[C-Man 27029]

You’ll have to ask Bill. 

He is Bill

[Fondren & Main 6665]

On 9/9/2019 at 9:01 AM, Valmy77 said:

I would say our defense is the key, but Eagles and Duvernay certainly don't hurt.

Really nice to see Dev dominating and Eagles emerging.  If defenses commit to stopping one or the other then CJ will break loose.

Edited September 12, 2019 by Fondren & Main

[gmr548 16482]

On the topic of out-there analytics ratings, Sagarin is really high on the B12 after two games. Has it rated right there as the best conference in college football. http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Has Baylor at 10, Tech at 19, OSU at 21, K State at 25, and OU/Texas about where you'd expect. I'd imagine it's a function of playing cupcake games but it's interesting none the less.

[texifornia 56479]

42 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

On the topic of out-there analytics ratings, Sagarin is really high on the B12 after two games. Has it rated right there as the best conference in college football. http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Has Baylor at 10, Tech at 19, OSU at 21, K State at 25, and OU/Texas about where you'd expect. I'd imagine it's a function of playing cupcake games but it's interesting none the less.

Holyyyyy shit Baylor. That's something alright.

[Valmy77 13093]

On 9/11/2019 at 6:38 PM, Fozzz said:

Shit’s rigged to boost Texas. 

I am glad you at least agree it is a bullshit metric.

[Fozzz 152]

Honestly, 24th feels about right to me.  Does anyone really think Texas is currently much better or worse than that?  It's possible of course, but all available evidence seems to indicate otherwise.  

[texifornia 56479]

6 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Honestly, 24th feels about right to me.  Does anyone really think Texas is currently much better or worse than that?  It's possible of course, but all available evidence seems to indicate otherwise.  

Lose to the #6 team in country by a single score, including scoring on every second half drive and forcing the other team to fake cramps every other play to get a rest -> "All evidence says this team is 24th"

Edited September 13, 2019 by texifornia