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S&P+ rankings: Overperformance or overcorrection?

satyanash

By satyanash
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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Just now, texifornia said:

Lose to the #6 team in country by a score, including scoring on every second half drive and forcing the other team to fake cramps every other play to get a rest -> "All evidence says this team is 24th"

Another way of putting it is that LSU had an 88% win probability on the road against Texas in a game where they absolutely humiliated the Texas defense to the tune of averaging nearly 9 YPP, significantly outperforming their offensive efficiency from week 1 against some piece of shit also-ran school.  

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Dahobbs
Dahobbs

Fozzz is a fucking idiot. 

Magus Ossis
Magus Ossis

A model that drops the winner and sustains the loser of a game needs adjusting.

NeverMarryAStripper
NeverMarryAStripper

Exactly.  Just because you beat someone doesn't mean than you can beat them.

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texifornia

texifornia 56479

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1 minute ago, Fozzz said:

Another way of putting it is that LSU had an 88% win probability on the road against Texas in a game where they absolutely humiliated the Texas defense to the tune of averaging nearly 9 YPP, significantly outperforming their offensive efficiency from week 1 against some piece of shit also-ran school.  

At a certain point you just have to watch the game, man. Both defenses had a bad day except for LSU's excellence at goalline stands, which was the difference (and they also got bailed out by Ingram's hands). Otherwise that game was about as closely run as it comes.

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formermav43

formermav43 4599

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13 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Honestly, 24th feels about right to me.  Does anyone really think Texas is currently much better or worse than that?  It's possible of course, but all available evidence seems to indicate otherwise.  

Depends on what you mean by “much better,” I suppose. I’d say Texas is better than several teams ranked higher: USC, Missouri, Michigan, Mississippi State, Washington jump out as pretty obvious examples without getting too in-depth and trying not to be a homer about it.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Just now, texifornia said:

At a certain point you just have to watch the game, man. Both defenses had a bad day except for LSU's excellence at goalline stands, which was the difference (and they also got bailed out by Ingram's hands). Otherwise that game was about as closely run as it comes.

There are games where one team racks up more yardage at a more consistent clip than a second team but yet loses because of turnovers and/or failure to convert on a key few plays.  What lesson would you draw from that game?  That the second team is likely to perform better than the first moving forward?  

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texifornia

texifornia 56479

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5 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

There are games where one team racks up more yardage at a more consistent clip than a second team but yet loses because of turnovers and/or failure to convert on a key few plays.  What lesson would you draw from that game?  That the second team is likely to perform better than the first moving forward?  

Hey Bill, I think LSU was better for sure. I just don't think 24th, behind the teams @formermav43 mentioned, makes much sense either. We'd kick the shit out of Mizzou.

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Fozzz

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4 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

Depends on what you mean by “much better,” I suppose. I’d say Texas is better than several teams ranked higher: USC, Missouri, Michigan, Mississippi State, Washington jump out as pretty obvious examples without getting too in-depth and trying not to be a homer about it.

I can buy Texas having around a top 10-15 offense, but their defense still looks to be a mediocre 40-60th quality unit.  Maybe it will all come together next season.

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gmr548

gmr548 16482

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Honestly, 24th feels about right to me.  Does anyone really think Texas is currently much better or worse than that?  It's possible of course, but all available evidence seems to indicate otherwise.  

I guess it depends on how you define "much" worse, but just going up the list, at no point before #19 Utah at the very least do you get to a team that would be legitimately expected to beat Texas. To me, you get to about #15 Oregon before you really have to start thinking about it.

So yeah, I think it's underrating them by a good bit. We'll see how the season plays out, but I expect Texas will acquit itself as a top 10-15 team. Probably not better, but probably not worse.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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TXSooner518

TXSooner518 2432

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1 hour ago, Fozzz said:

Honestly, 24th feels about right to me.  Does anyone really think Texas is currently much better or worse than that?  It's possible of course, but all available evidence seems to indicate otherwise.  

You know you're fucked up on this when even the Sooners are responding with LOL no.

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texifornia

texifornia 56479

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12 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

I guess if Texas is only at best #24, then LSU should have fallen in the rankings with such a shitty victory

No but you see they had an 88% win PROBABILITY. So while you saw a close, fun, exciting game, it was actually a middle-of-the-road pasting of an outmanned opponent.

(the funny thing is Bill was actually really complimentary of us on Twitter! Fozz is over even Connolly's skis on this one)

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Ricky Butler

Ricky Butler 2657

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Just now, texifornia said:

No but you see they had an 88% win PROBABILITY. So while you saw a close, fun, exciting game, it was actually a middle-of-the-road pasting of an outmanned opponent.

Well, we did start the season ranked in the 40s, so clearly THAT ranking was right and the new ranking is just an error.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14468

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2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

On the topic of out-there analytics ratings, Sagarin is really high on the B12 after two games. Has it rated right there as the best conference in college football. http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Has Baylor at 10, Tech at 19, OSU at 21, K State at 25, and OU/Texas about where you'd expect. I'd imagine it's a function of playing cupcake games but it's interesting none the less.

Not just playing cupcakes, but obliterating them save Kansas.

The Big 12 is like 15-3 so far.

This is a big week for the conference as 7 of the 9 games are against P5 opponents.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32694

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6 minutes ago, Ricky Butler said:

Honest question, what do you mean by this?

Others are correct. Playing shitty teams can actually hurt your ratings if you play them like you're also shitty. Playing shitty teams is not a free pass to a higher rating in any decent computer system (note that at times it is a free pass to a higher rating in some non-advanced systems).

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Ricky Butler

Ricky Butler 2657

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3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Others are correct. Playing shitty teams can actually hurt your ratings if you play them like you're also shitty. Playing shitty teams is not a free pass to a higher rating in any decent computer system (note that at times it is a free pass to a higher rating in some non-advanced systems).

Got it. Thanks

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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19 minutes ago, texifornia said:

No but you see they had an 88% win PROBABILITY. So while you saw a close, fun, exciting game, it was actually a middle-of-the-road pasting of an outmanned opponent.

(the funny thing is Bill was actually really complimentary of us on Twitter! Fozz is over even Connolly's skis on this one)

I thought I had explained this adequately above, but apparently not. Games can be close for different reasons, some being more salient than others when attempting to learn how each team may perform in the future. In the ways which are most salient to that endeavor, the game was not particularly close. 

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Texasrocks

Texasrocks 2124

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2 hours ago, Fozzz said:

Another way of putting it is that LSU had an 88% win probability on the road against Texas in a game where they were absolutely humiliated by the Texas on defense and did not stop Texas' offense a single time in 8 second half possessions.

Here's yet another way you could put it.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52336

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Someone please explain what his early season metrics are, because I thought the prevailing wisdom was that our biggest issue is with beating bad teams soundly. But we’re 2 for 2 in that measurement so far with a close loss to a top team in between, and yet we hover in the late 20s. 

Something from last year still dragging us down?

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Someone please explain what his early season metrics are, because I thought the prevailing wisdom was that our biggest issue is with beating bad teams soundly. But we’re 2 for 2 in that measurement so far with a close loss to a top team in between, and yet we hover in the late 20s. 

Something from last year still dragging us down?

It's a completely idiotic system.  5 year lookback means we're still dragging 2+ years of Charlie and the transition year around with us in this absurd "rating" system.  I haven't looked at this thread in a while because the sheer stupidity of it makes my BP go up.

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satyanash

satyanash 14280

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44 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Someone please explain what his early season metrics are, because I thought the prevailing wisdom was that our biggest issue is with beating bad teams soundly. But we’re 2 for 2 in that measurement so far with a close loss to a top team in between, and yet we hover in the late 20s.

That was never the main issue. Sagarin's system for example has us at #12, and it takes into account MOV.

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gmr548

gmr548 16482

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I'm no S&P expert, but I know a big reason computer rankings were low on Texas in the preseason was the lost production on defense.

Three games in, Texas has been pretty bad in terms of defensive efficiency, especially against the pass. Haven't seen anything to allay those concerns. I would imagine that's what's holding the ranking down and making predictions less bullish.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52336

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29 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I'm no S&P expert, but I know a big reason computer rankings were low on Texas in the preseason was the lost production on defense.

Three games in, Texas has been pretty bad in terms of defensive efficiency, especially against the pass. Haven't seen anything to allay those concerns. I would imagine that's what's holding the ranking down and making predictions less bullish.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

But LSUs defense has looked sparkling, huh. 

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4668

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4 minutes ago, Texasrocks said:

Holy shit. Miss State is 13th and K State is 49th. How in the hell is Tennessee ranked 36th? Connelly's model seems like it sucks.

I didn't even realize Miss State was ranked so high after the loss. Man, that's terrible. Miss State has struggled with some meh teams in the other games. Somebody explain their ranking to me because good lord. 

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4668

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It's right. 

Miss State struggled with ULL and didn't dominate Southern Miss either. K-State dominated Nichols and Bowling Green. Then K-State controlled Miss State on the road. 

Yet, this system has Miss State 36 spots higher? I get it's early and the rankings are still heavily based on the preseason rankings but this is a joke. 

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