S&P+ rankings: Overperformance or overcorrection?

[Pato del Muerto 52,336]

25 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

It's right. 

Miss State struggled with ULL and didn't dominate Southern Miss either. K-State dominated Nichols and Bowling Green. Then K-State controlled Miss State on the road. 

Yet, this system has Miss State 36 spots higher? I get it's early and the rankings are still heavily based on the preseason rankings but this is a joke. 

Upsets happen. I take MSU to beat KSU 9 times out of 10. - BC probably 

[PilotsError 2,281]

The whole purpose of his system is to generate controversy and have people talk about him. He's a fucking expert at it and you people are his best proof.

[Valmy77 13,093]

6 hours ago, PilotsError said:

The whole purpose of his system is to generate controversy and have people talk about him. He's a fucking expert at it and you people are his best proof.

Does he benefit somehow from a thread on Surly being made about him? 

[Skipper 6,100]

The Miss St. ranking is proof positive this 'system' is an absolute joke.  Anyone that watched that game saw KSU dominate it.   If KSU didn't shoot themselves in the foot with stupid mistakes time and time again it's not even close.

[texifornia 56,479]

Ok this is pretty funny though

 

[Fozzz 152]

College football fans make baseball fans look like Mensa members - just the absolute, bottom of the barrel mouth breathing hoopleheadedness.  

[Ricky Butler 2,657]

Seems about right. 

[Valmy77 13,093]

38 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

College football fans make baseball fans look like Mensa members - just the absolute, bottom of the barrel mouth breathing hoopleheadedness.  

Jesus dude. So I don't think much of these computer models? Chill out you drama queen.

[Dahobbs 17,420]

1 hour ago, Fozzz said:

College football fans make baseball fans look like Mensa members - just the absolute, bottom of the barrel mouth breathing hoopleheadedness.  

Fozzz makes other college football fans look like Albert Einstein.

[MrPhlegm 3,413]

Fozzz makes other college football fans look like Albert Einstein.

So what does the S and P stand for in S&P? Shit and Piss?

As a retired systems analyst/programmer with 40+ years of experience it appears to me that what we have here is a shit algore rythum that has no basis in reality input with an incorrect data set (the data itself is not incorrect it is the pieces of data that have been selected for input are not the right ones needed to not have a shit piss system. For example to determine say food stamp eligibility you need to know how big the family is, how much income do they have, how old is everbody, what assets they have, etc. So if I was this moron I would select as my inputs, the number of chickens in Paris France, a stoat, the color of the family's hair, the air pressure in their car tires, and two butchers' aprons and run it through my shit algore rythum) in otherwords GIGO.

OU sucks

[Skipper 6,100]

1 hour ago, Fozzz said:

College football fans make baseball fans look like Mensa members - just the absolute, bottom of the barrel mouth breathing hoopleheadedness.  

Silly us for not being impressed by this unbelievable predictive system that was magically able to pick 50% of the games correct against the spread.   

[Beau Vine 53,978]

He has Wyoming (3-0) ranked 81st.  Wyoming has a win over his #12 team Missouri.

I'm not sure which one is wrong, but you can't be ranked #12 if you lost to #81.  

[dingleberryswitzer 2,724]

Does the algorithm even look at wins and kisses, or just stats?  I'm guessing just stats.  

[HtownHorn 14,468]

49 minutes ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

Does the algorithm even look at wins and kisses, or just stats?  I'm guessing just stats.  

Yeah, I don't think he values in season wins and losses much at all.

[texifornia 56,479]

53 minutes ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

Does the algorithm even look at wins and kisses, or just stats?  I'm guessing just stats.  

If it's wins and kisses we'd be leading the rankings going away

[Huckleberry 32,694]

Best thread to put this on, I guess. FBS teams are connected as of this last Saturday, so it's actually possible to calculate ratings based only on this season already. Usually takes longer. Anyway, the problem with early season stuff is pretty clear if you do a standard power rating for this season. Here's the Top 10 based only on final scores from this season:

1. Auburn
2. Oregon
3. Notre Dame
4. Tulane
5. Louisville
6. Arizona St.
7. Michigan St.
8. Western Kentucky
9. Memphis
10. Kent St.

Edited September 16, 2019 by Huckleberry

[texifornia 56,479]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

Best thread to put this on, I guess. FBS teams are connected as of this last Saturday, so it's actually possible to calculate ratings based only on this season already. Usually takes longer. Anyway, the problem with early season stuff is pretty clear if you do a standard power rating for this season. Here's the Top 10 based only on final scores from this season:

1. Auburn
2. Oregon
3. Notre Dame
4. Tulane
5. Louisville
6. Arizona St.
7. Michigan St.
8. Western Kentucky
9. Memphis
10. Kent St.

Kent State out here with the nation's BEST losses

[dingleberryswitzer 2,724]

6 hours ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

Does the algorithm even look at wins and kisses, or just stats?  I'm guessing just stats.  

Haha I'm dumb.  that's a pretty good autocorrect though, given Herman's history.

[JBJ 3,648]

4 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Best thread to put this on, I guess. FBS teams are connected as of this last Saturday, so it's actually possible to calculate ratings based only on this season already. Usually takes longer. Anyway, the problem with early season stuff is pretty clear if you do a standard power rating for this season. Here's the Top 10 based only on final scores from this season:

1. Auburn
2. Oregon
3. Notre Dame
4. Tulane
5. Louisville
6. Arizona St.
7. Michigan St.
8. Western Kentucky
9. Memphis
10. Kent St.

Apparently not inconnected enough.  Wait two more weeks.

[texifornia 56,479]

They have us narrowly knocking off OSU

 

[Valmy77 13,093]

I think it will be tied and then we line up for a 0.4 point conversion to win.

[satyanash 14,280]

Texas' win probability distribution for the rest of the season. The Okie Lite game is a tossup (as is Iowa State later in the season), and we're then favourites against WVU and Kansas State. Expected win total for the season is 7.1

Edited September 18, 2019 by satyanash

[JBJ 3,648]

Might as well drop mine in here, I have a preseason component that fades completely with connectivity, but is still decently strong right now.

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. LSU
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Oklahoma
8. Wisconsin
9. Auburn
10. Notre Dame

Texas is 15.

 

My picks match BC's winners, but some are quite different:

* Utah 31, USC 28
* Wisconsin 35, Michigan 24
* Auburn 28, Texas A&M 20
* App State 24, UNC 20
* Texas 45, OSU 38
* Georgia 30, Notre Dame 21

[oSuJeff97 3,435]

1 hour ago, Valmy77 said:

I think it will be tied and then we line up for a 0.4 point conversion to win.

You monsters!

[NeverMarryAStripper 21,781]

If a 0.4 point conversion is blocked, picked up by the other team, and returned all the way does it score 0.8 points?

[OrangEngr 1,034]

8 hours ago, satyanash said:

Texas' win probability distribution for the rest of the season. The Okie Lite game is a tossup (as is Iowa State later in the season), and we're then favourites against WVU and Kansas State. Expected win total for the season is 7.1

He has as underdogs to Baylor. Next.

[satyanash 14,280]

1 hour ago, OrangEngr said:

He has as underdogs to Baylor. Next.

Mostly because S&P+ has our defense as the second-worst in the Big 12 (ahead of only Kansas)

[lemonandaturd 4,285]

That 7.1 chart is ass, my dude.  

[texifornia 56,479]

1 hour ago, OrangEngr said:

He has as underdogs to Baylor. Next.

Baylor is good this year, the game is in Waco, and plenty of cfb writers have us pegged to lose that game.

Edited September 19, 2019 by texifornia

[OrangEngr 1,034]

Baylor is good this year, the game is in Waco, and plenty of cfb writers have us pegged to lose that game.

Playing SFA and UTSA...

[texifornia 56,479]

1 minute ago, OrangEngr said:

 

Playing SFA and UTSA...

 

 

Oh, they're definitely coasting on decent recruiting numbers and returning production up until now, but they haven't fucked up yet so there's not much else to add. 

[cochamps 1,875]

2 hours ago, lemonandaturd said:

That 7.1 chart is ass, my dude.  

I’ll take the over.

[NeverMarryAStripper 21,781]

Baylor is good this year, the game is in Waco, and plenty of cfb writers have us pegged to lose that game.

I hope we don’t let any sports writer peg us

[formermav43 4,599]

2 hours ago, texifornia said:

Baylor is good this year, the game is in Waco, and plenty of cfb writers have us pegged to lose that game.

Which ones?

[texifornia 56,479]

6 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

Which ones?

I'm much too lazy to go back to preseason articles, but it seemed like the go-to for this format: "Texas wins a game it shouldn't (aka LSU or OU) and loses one it shouldn't (probably Baylor)".

They love them some Charlie Brewer.

[maninblack 7,974]

13 hours ago, texifornia said:

They have us narrowly knocking off OSU

Love it

[Girdwood 118]

Connelly is such a passive aggressive douche. 

[Yesh 904]

More likely to go 5-7 than 10-2?  ok

[Cajun 11,675]

22 hours ago, satyanash said:

Texas' win probability distribution for the rest of the season. The Okie Lite game is a tossup (as is Iowa State later in the season), and we're then favourites against WVU and Kansas State. Expected win total for the season is 7.1

45% chance of beating fucking Baylor?

You serious Clark?

Art Briles ain't walking throught that door.

[Cajun 11,675]

12 hours ago, texifornia said:

Baylor is good this year, the game is in Waco, and plenty of cfb writers have us pegged to lose that game.

lmao

[Cajun 11,675]

I'll come eat crow if wrong, but we'll beat Baylor by 3 scores going away.

[Fud 9,545]

His model hasn't started phasing out preseason data yet, which to me makes the model less useful at this point, and that starts after this week. 

[sushihorn 3,233]

12 hours ago, Girdwood said:

Connelly is such a passive aggressive douche. 

His model sucks at predicting Texas when coached by Tom Herman.  Same thing for Houston.  He sees it's flawed yet refuses to make changes or simply say it doesn't work for certain teams so ignore those predictions.  Instead he doubles down by blaming the team rather than the model.  He's very much like a religious fanatic in that respect.  Texas has been better than SP+ predicted for 5 consecutive games and for 3 of those five the miss distance has been bigger than CJ's catch radius.

The errors are not randomly distributed and are all in one direction.  I met guys like Connally doing quant models of market behavior.  Their models are reasonably close most of the time but disastrously wrong at other times and they can't seem to understand why.  Connally isn't as smart as those guys but he's just as arrogant and as you point out, passive aggressive as well.

[Texasrocks 2,124]

On 9/16/2019 at 9:24 AM, Fozzz said:

College football fans make baseball fans look like Mensa members - just the absolute, bottom of the barrel mouth breathing hoopleheadedness.  

And the really dumb ones develop ranking systems.

[JBJ 3,648]

On 9/19/2019 at 8:05 AM, Fud said:

His model hasn't started phasing out preseason data yet, which to me makes the model less useful at this point, and that starts after this week. 

It'll get worse not better.  Go read my first few posts on this thread, his terminology has changed somewhat since then, but his model still fails the rationality test.  If it can't accurately tell you how good a single set of downs or a single drive is, it's not going to improve upon that when you put it in aggregate. Aggregation just helps to hide the underlying issues.

[satyanash 14,280]

6 hours ago, JBJ said:

It'll get worse not better.  Go read my first few posts on this thread, his terminology has changed somewhat since then, but his model still fails the rationality test.  If it can't accurately tell you how good a single set of downs or a single drive is, it's not going to improve upon that when you put it in aggregate. Aggregation just helps to hide the underlying issues.

TBF, his model's doing really well so far this season. He's hitting 54.3% against the spread, better than FPI, Sagarin, or ESPN's FPI.

Edited September 21, 2019 by satyanash

[GabrielsHorn 2,142]

32 minutes ago, satyanash said:

TBF, his model's doing really well so far this season. He's hitting 54.3% against the spread, better than FPI, Sagarin, or ESPN's FPI.

He started off hot last year too then it really tapered off. 

[texifornia 56,479]

 

[hornian 5,203]

29 minutes ago, texifornia said:

 

How generous, we're in the top 20 now. 

 

[PilotsError 2,281]

Jesus, all he wants is attention. And you people oblige.