S&P+ rankings: Overperformance or overcorrection?

[NoName 16369]

44 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

It's hard to tell where his model ends and his personal opinion starts.  It's very unprofessional and a perfect example of the Appeal to (false) Authority Fallacy.

honestly, it really isn't and if you think that you aren't doing any research or paying attention to it.

it's pretty clearly based around the Five Factors (link) - in the past he released the underlying information in a google sheet but think that has been mostly stopped by ESPN. I went back a little ways and thought I saw one of the docs after like week 3, but cant find it. He is pretty damn transparent as to what goes into his model and historically has released weekly profiles for each school in an enormous google sheet.

here is some additional/updated info on that in this tweet thread about where things are YTD (the first tweet has more 5 factors stuff in it):

 

 

[JBJ 3664]

Sushi is right.  I've been following him for years and it's pretty true.  He'll make decisions based on what he thinks should be true instead of where the data takes him (and posts about it in his blog).  He ended up with a weird amalgamation of statistical modeling and opinion, and it's pretty consistent about overvaluing the style of football he prefers and undervaluing others.

He was in a better place 10 years ago when he was focused on S&P (success and points earned), rather than the five factors.  Fremeau's system ended up better (FEI - bcftoys.com) while using less granular data because he stated true to that philosophy.  Connelly should have come close to creating what amounts to DVOA for college, but he went the opposite direction from pretty much the entire FO community.

Edited October 10, 2019 by JBJ

[Burt Macklin 19038]

1 hour ago, NoName said:

honestly, it really isn't and if you think that you aren't doing any research or paying attention to it.

it's pretty clearly based around the Five Factors (link) - in the past he released the underlying information in a google sheet but think that has been mostly stopped by ESPN. I went back a little ways and thought I saw one of the docs after like week 3, but cant find it. He is pretty damn transparent as to what goes into his model and historically has released weekly profiles for each school in an enormous google sheet.

here is some additional/updated info on that in this tweet thread about where things are YTD (the first tweet has more 5 factors stuff in it):

 

 

Sushi was talking about his tweets and replies, and he’s correct. Like when Bill commented on the OSU game where his own system said we had a 89% win expectancy and said the game just came down to who finished drives the most. 

[NoName 16369]

14 hours ago, JBJ said:

Sushi is right.  I've been following him for years and it's pretty true.  He'll make decisions based on what he thinks should be true instead of where the data takes him (and posts about it in his blog).  He ended up with a weird amalgamation of statistical modeling and opinion, and it's pretty consistent about overvaluing the style of football he prefers and undervaluing others.

He was in a better place 10 years ago when he was focused on S&P (success and points earned), rather than the five factors.  Fremeau's system ended up better (FEI - bcftoys.com) while using less granular data because he stated true to that philosophy.  Connelly should have come close to creating what amounts to DVOA for college, but he went the opposite direction from pretty much the entire FO community.

generally with you, FEI is good as well - not that I am some S&P+ fanboy here, but this isn't a 538 situation where you don't really know what tweaks they are doing on it. Bill C is very up front about what goes into S&P+

what y'all are saying about his decisions based on the data and his conclusions - with you there. after re-reading what Sushi said, i read it as you can't really tell what he is using and that was not what he said

FWIW

S&P+ has Texas as the #20 overall team, with the #4 Offense, #66 Defense and #7 Special Teams

FEI has Texas as #16, with the #8 Offense, #48 Defense

F/+ (combined version of the two) has Texas at #18 

here is FEI's garbage time rules btw

 

Spoiler

 

Garbage and Non-Garbage Possessions

Unless otherwise noted, all ratings and supporting data found on this site are calculated only after first filtering out garbage possessions, defined as of July 2018, as follows:

• An offensive possession of two plays or fewer that runs out the clock to conclude the first half and does not result in a turnover, score, or field goal attempt
• An offensive possession of two plays or fewer that runs out the clock to conclude the second half with the score tied and does not result in a turnover, score, or field goal attempt
• A possession in the second half of a game in which eight times the number of the losing team's remaining possessions plus one is less than the losing team's scoring deficit at the start of the possession
• An offensive possession or non-offensive scoring possession by the winning team leading by eight points or fewer at the start of the possession that runs out the clock to conclude the game

Since 2007, 10.5 percent of all possessions have been classified as garbage possessions according to these criteria. FBS games have averaged 23.8 non-garbage possessions per game (11.9 non-garbage possessions and 11.2 non-garbage offensive drives per team per game) in that span.

 

 

 

[Yesh 932]

Based on that definition of garbage possession, the 2 Rice TDs were garbage, but the 1 Oklahoma St and the 2 WVU TDs were not.

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

FEI has been way off on their projected margins on Texas all year. I'd be curious to see how far off they are on PM overall, since they have literally not been close once in 5 tries on Texas games.

Game 1 PM 8       Actual 23
Game 2 PM -11.6   Actual -7
Game 3 PM 23.9    Actual 35
Game 4 PM .4      Actual 6
Game 5 PM 4.3     Actual 11

The closest they got was within 4.6 on the LSU game. In 5 tries, that just doesn't strike me as all that good.

[DanRydell 799]

FEI has been way off on their projected margins on Texas all year. I'd be curious to see how far off they are on PM overall, since they have literally not been close once in 5 tries on Texas games.
Game 1 PM 8       Actual 23
Game 2 PM -11.6   Actual -7
Game 3 PM 23.9    Actual 35
Game 4 PM .4      Actual 6
Game 5 PM 4.3     Actual 11
The closest they got was within 4.6 on the LSU game. In 5 tries, that just doesn't strike me as all that good.

Generally speaking, an average error of 8.6 is quite impressive. Over the 2018 season, the final Vegas line for all FBS v. FBS games had an average error of 12.65.

That said, Texas has played insanely close to the line so far this year, with an average error of 4.1, so in that context, a system with an average error more than 2x greater than the line probably doesn’t have Texas all that pegged.

[ClubWhatever 12154]

5 minutes ago, DanRydell said:

a system with an average error more than 2x greater than the line probably doesn’t have Texas all that pegged.

I know nothing about that system but if it’s pure number crunching it can’t adjust real time to injury data like Vegas can.  I would also be surprised if it has a way to account for the effect of teams coming off emotional hard fought games. 

[Pato del Muerto 52571]

Is FEI a betting application?  Or a score predictor?  Because as is said ad naseum the Vegas line can be effected by the money and will move to balance the money on both sides and isn’t a true outcome predictor. 

[DanRydell 799]

6 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Is FEI a betting application?  Or a score predictor?  Because as is said ad naseum the Vegas line can be effected by the money and will move to balance the money on both sides and isn’t a true outcome predictor. 

While the final line is not a pure scoring predictor, I was comparing them because the final line finishes basically every year as having the smallest absolute error of the many different systems tracked by ThePredictionTracker.com.

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?year=18

[satyanash 14609]

Texas at No. 22 this week. Tied with ND and A&M.

 

[Girdwood 118]

[Capn81 373]

First time that I have ever looked at this. Saw Missouri at 10 and decided to never look at it again.

[NoName 16369]

On 10/11/2019 at 10:11 PM, Walden Ponderer said:

FEI has been way off on their projected margins on Texas all year. I'd be curious to see how far off they are on PM overall, since they have literally not been close once in 5 tries on Texas games.

Game 1 PM 8       Actual 23
Game 2 PM -11.6   Actual -7
Game 3 PM 23.9    Actual 35
Game 4 PM .4      Actual 6
Game 5 PM 4.3     Actual 11

The closest they got was within 4.6 on the LSU game. In 5 tries, that just doesn't strike me as all that good.

i get what you are saying but FEI is doing quite well overall this year overall using ThePredictionTracker - 3rd overall, picked games correctly at a 78.17% clip and 2nd overall almost in line with the Updated Line weekly at 54.68%

Quote

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases

 

Edited October 14, 2019 by NoName

[NoName 16369]

On 10/13/2019 at 12:32 AM, ClubWhatever said:

I know nothing about that system but if it’s pure number crunching it can’t adjust real time to injury data like Vegas can.  I would also be surprised if it has a way to account for the effect of teams coming off emotional hard fought games. 

not disagreeing with you but right now there are 12 ranking systems with "better" SU results (by 1-4 games out of 339) this year on ThePredictionTracker

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresultsphp?orderby=wpct desc&type=1&year=19

[satyanash 14609]

[satyanash 14609]

 

[Fozzz 152]

I still can't believe they shredded our offense like that.  What a miserable performance.  

[texifornia 57077]

He's got us over KU by 19.6

 

[Huckleberry 33072]

Top 10 alma mater of his has now lost to Wyoming and Vanderbilt. I'm sure they'll only be #15 or so next week.

[texifornia 57077]

Down to 27 (sure, whatever). OU at 3, aggy at 25, TCU at 30.

 

[texifornia 57077]

19 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Top 10 alma mater of his has now lost to Wyoming and Vanderbilt. I'm sure they'll only be #15 or so next week.

18, actually.

[Fozzz 152]

Defense might fall out of the top 100 if it can't get its shit together.  

[satyanash 14609]

Holding steady at 7.5 wins.

[USNALonghorn 5078]

33% for ISU and Baylor games... yikes.

[texifornia 57077]

43 minutes ago, USNALonghorn said:

33% for ISU and Baylor games... yikes.

They're good teams, Brent.

Also away games. I just hope we beat the rapists.

[Beau Vine 54381]

Just checking in to see if Missouri is still wildly overrated?

[texifornia 57077]

We in this:

 

[texifornia 57077]

3 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

Just checking in to see if Missouri is still wildly overrated?

Five posts above yours

[Fozzz 152]

I guess this is just gonna be the Missouri thread now that no one can conceivably argue that SP+ was underrating Texas. 

[satyanash 14609]

Down to #31 this week.

 

[Ricky Butler 2732]

5 hours ago, Fozzz said:

I guess this is just gonna be the Missouri thread now that no one can conceivably argue that SP+ was underrating Texas. 

Seems about right. 

[Beau Vine 54381]

On 10/27/2019 at 10:03 AM, Fozzz said:

I guess this is just gonna be the Missouri thread now that no one can conceivably argue that SP+ was underrating Texas. 

Texas State #108?  This guy doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground!  No way the Bobcats should be lower than 105!  Fuck Bill Connelly!

[Valmy77 13270]

On 10/27/2019 at 10:03 AM, Fozzz said:

I guess this is just gonna be the Missouri thread now that no one can conceivably argue that SP+ was underrating Texas. 

Which was never my argument in the first place. You sure are persistent about this.

[bigcigar 1164]

On 10/27/2019 at 10:03 AM, Fozzz said:

I guess this is just gonna be the Missouri thread now that no one can conceivably argue that SP+ was underrating Texas. 

I’m just impressed his model predicted massive injuries to the Texas defense. Kind of amazing it knew we’d be starting a true freshman with no game reps instead of sterns in the 8th game.

[Fozzz 152]

1 hour ago, bigcigar said:

I’m just impressed his model predicted massive injuries to the Texas defense. Kind of amazing it knew we’d be starting a true freshman with no game reps instead of sterns in the 8th game.

If it is true that but for injuries Texas would be a top ten team then I don't know why the hoopleheads are clamoring for firings.  Seems like the coaches are doing their jobs and the fans need to grow up.

[bigcigar 1164]

16 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

If it is true that but for injuries Texas would be a top ten team then I don't know why the hoopleheads are clamoring for firings.  Seems like the coaches are doing their jobs and the fans need to grow up.

I’m fine with conceding top 10, but it’s not a stretch to think they were comfortably a 9 win team even with coaching issues if early season trends held.

[texifornia 57077]

New rankings out: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28050163/sp+-rankings-week-11-big-games-mean-big-changes

OU is #5

aggy is #20

Iowa State is #21

We're still #31

[texifornia 57077]

 

[Beau Vine 54381]

Washington #12.  Lulz.

[satyanash 14609]

3 hours ago, texifornia said:

 

34.5% chance of victory against Iowa State, 32.5% chance against Baylor... next few weeks could be brutal. Have to hope we at least get a 1-1 split heading into December.

[texifornia 57077]

 

[Fozzz 152]

It is so infuriating having to monitor his twitter to find the box scores and any other information he chooses to release.  Why doesn't ESPN have a page dedicated to this shit on their site?  

[NoName 16369]

40 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

It is so infuriating having to monitor his twitter to find the box scores and any other information he chooses to release.  Why doesn't ESPN have a page dedicated to this shit on their site?  

it's a shitty CMS i assume, people ask Keith Law about this all the time as well. 

if it was do-able I assume they would do it. but due to rolling out a shitty CMS i am guessing it isn't.

[Fozzz 152]

Just now, NoName said:

it's a shitty CMS i assume, people ask Keith Law about this all the time as well. 

if it was do-able I assume they would do it. but due to rolling out a shitty CMS i am guessing it isn't.

ESPN's site is almost unusable.  Way too many ads and way too many visuals/media that cause your browser to shit itself.  

[Trey3216 15352]

2 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

ESPN's site is almost unusable.  Way too many ads and way too many visuals/media that cause your browser to shit itself.  

It's nearly as unusable as much of their programming is unwatchable.  

[gmr548 16607]

Texas with a higher Q1 success rate feels... not right.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[satyanash 14609]

 

[texifornia 57077]

1 minute ago, satyanash said:

 

So ISU by 6.8 (or pretty much a TD). Yeah I can see how he'd get that. We should match up against them pretty well, but this team is ready and willing to find a fun way to shit themselves against anyone.

[Girdwood 118]

Someone ask this fuckstick where Missouri is ranked