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2018-19 NBA Season Thread

BigOrange1

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Vic Mackey
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Thatguy
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RW is from Lawndale. Most of the gangs down there are Hispanic. Not the same as the violence in South Central. I think he is paying homage to a guy who he had a lot of respect for. It's just that if y

Dutchrudder
Dutchrudder

The last guy to consistently shutdown KD was Westbrook in 2016. 

ztejas

ztejas 44228

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, NowThis said:

Demarcus Cousins is not a luxury anymore for the Warriors, but a necessity. 

 

12 hours ago, NowThis said:

not tonight, Lakers blow them out at home. What a disgrace! 

Cousins will be the decider of the NBA title, if he's on his game, the shooting will improve and GS will coast.  Otherwise, they're in deep trouble unless Klay goes off. 

These are two of the worst takes I've seen in this thread. 

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3966

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, aggie08 said:

I completely disagree with you about Klay. Yes, he's having a terrible season for his standards thus far. But last year was the most efficient shooting season of his career, and he's been the most accurate volume 3 point shooter in the league two years running. You know exactly what you're going to get from Klay: shooting, movement, solid defense, and nothing else. The things that advanced metrics like--rebounds, assists, steals...a complete game--aren't his cup of tea. 

He'll break out of this slump like he's broken out of slumps in prior seasons. And, while 22, 4, and 2 (a filthy rich man's 3-and-D guy) probably isn't worth $25M+ on most teams/offenses, he is to the Warriors as the perfect compliment to Steph offensively--and someone who takes the pressure off of him defensively. His game should age pretty gracefully as well.

I mean, is that all you want from him?  Solid D and good 3 point shooting?  It's the ultimate 3 and D guy, but to me, I don't know if I want to pay him around 30 million unless I can get a better return.  He can get a 4/139 (35 millionish AAV) million deal from someone else and and 5/190ish (38 million AAV) from Golden State.  Let's say he takes a home town discount and cuts the middle and gets 5 years for 160 with a 3 year opt out.  That's a tremendous financial burden for a guy who's net rating is negative this year and was slightly negative last year.  I understand the narrative, he's not appreciated by the metrics, his egoless example allows Golden State to function with two superstars and perhaps that's true to a degree. 

But you can't disagree on the facts, which is most of the metrics other than 3 point shooting have trended the wrong way.  And frankly, you're using one season to try and bolster your argument.  Until last season, his 3 point shooting had declined for 3 seasons, his low shooting this year is most likely due in part to stat regression of sample size.  Defensive plus/minus, box plus/minus, VORP, PER, WS, WS/148, net rating, etc, etc are trending the wrong way and it's a deep 4 season trend.  My conclusion is  you can't win a championship with Klay as your 2nd best player anymore, at least not this version.  Maybe he would be re-invigorated if he signed with a new team or KD left and he had to pick up the slack but his contract, if it's a AAV of 28-34 million will be considered a bad contract as time judges it IMO.... He needs to be more around 22-24 million and that's rich.  

 

Edited by Patrick Bateman
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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 13473

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

I mean, is that all you want from him?  Solid D and good 3 point shooting?  It's the ultimate 3 and D guy, but to me, I don't know if I want to pay him around 30 million unless I can get a better return.  He can get a 4/139 (35 millionish AAV) million deal from someone else and and 5/190ish (38 million AAV) from Golden State.  Let's say he takes a home town discount and cuts the middle and gets 5 years for 160 with a 3 year opt out.  That's a tremendous financial burden for a guy who's net rating is negative this year and was slightly negative last year.  I understand the narrative, he's not appreciated by the metrics, his egoless example allows Golden State to function with two superstars and perhaps that's true to a degree. 

But you can't disagree on the facts, which is most of the metrics other than 3 point shooting have trended the wrong way.  And frankly, you're using one season to try and bolster your argument.  Until last season, his 3 point shooting had declined for 3 seasons, his low shooting this year is most likely due in part to stat regression of sample size.  Defensive plus/minus, box plus/minus, VORP, PER, WS, WS/148, net rating, etc, etc are trending the wrong way and it's a deep 4 season trend.  My conclusion is  you can't win a championship with Klay as your 2nd best player anymore, at least not this version.  Maybe he would be re-invigorated if he signed with a new team or KD left and he had to pick up the slack but his contract, if it's a AAV of 28-34 million will be considered a bad contract as time judges it IMO.... He needs to be more around 22-24 million and that's rich.  

 

I agree with you. He’s clearly great as a 3 and D but 30 million is a lot for a three abd D. I’ve also always thought his defense was overrated. He plays hard on that end and is a good defender but he’s not a stopper imo. 

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32588

Posted
Posted

RE: Green's sudden decline:

https://deadspin.com/draymond-green-is-kind-of-killing-the-warriors-1831319478

 

Quote

Green’s never been a guy whose numbers tell the full story of his impact on the game, but even by those standards he’s been awful this year. He’s scoring seven points per game to go along with eight rebounds and six assists, and he’s sporting the worst shooting numbers of his career. His ability to reliably hit threes is what once made the Warriors’ offense the most terrifying weapon in the history of basketball, but this season he’s hitting just 22 percent of his shots from outside and is shooting 40 percent from the field overall. He’s reached that dreaded territory that all non-shooters fear, where defenses allow them all the space they need to humiliate themselves:

Quote

Refusing to take the bait and finding more creative ways to attack all that space defenses are leaving him would seem like a good course of action for Green going forward, but for the fact that it’s not just his shooting that has dulled this season. Green used to be the guy who kept the Warriors’ death machine running smoothly, but this season all he’s offered is belching and sputtering. His turnover rate is a grody 29.1 percent, a career-high by a long shot, and he’s got the worst turnover ratio in the entire NBA among players averaging at least 20 minutes per game.

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UTDD

UTDD 362

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, hobbes2702 said:

I agree with you. He’s clearly great as a 3 and D but 30 million is a lot for a three abd D. I’ve also always thought his defense was overrated. He plays hard on that end and is a good defender but he’s not a stopper imo. 

He's having a terrible year by his own prior standards.  His W/S/48 is only .045 (lower than even his rookie year) and a lot of his advanced metrics (VORP/BPM/OBPM/DBPM) are all below zero right now.  44% from 3 last year to right now 34% from 3.  Not a complete liability out there from outside, but definitely a prolonged slump as the sample size is no longer tiny.  Klay benefits greatly from Curry's gravity so having him out some time definitely hurt.  I don't know if this metric is publicly available, but there is one that clearly shows the quality of shots Klay gets (basically how open he is) with Curry on/off the court and it is a significant deviation beyond the average 2 guard on other teams with any particular player (star or not) on/off the court.  He also benefits greatly from Green's play making ability and Green is badly struggling too this year.  Green is costing himself a lot of money in two years with this year's play so far.  Durant I think is having a pretty good year but even he's gone slightly down from 42 to 37% on 3s this year so far.  His ORtg and DRtg were incredible his first year in Golden State, but last year and this year so far they are worse than any of his prior five years before these two.  I am sure Golden State will pay Klay, but I'm not sure it's a 100% slam dunk good value.    

But having said that, Golden State isn't exactly in panic mode.  Despite their struggles, their overall offensive efficiency is right now #1 in the NBA.  (They were # 2 last year behind Houston)  Just like last year, they are still #1 in team true shooting percentage.  But their defense was always top notch before Durant came and then great his first year there, and even last year their defensive efficiency was 9th in the league.  Now so far it's 19th.  Their opponent true shooting percentage last year was # 2.  Now it's 12th.  They are maybe a decent but more fair to say average team on defense right now, and I think some of that is frankly complacency and four prior years of playoff grind.  (This is also partly why I appreciate LeBron playing so well every playoffs considering the extra grind year after year, it's tough)  But some of it might be real drop-off from Green and Klay to a smaller extent and their bench is now weaker too.  Let's see them after the All-Star break and if they turn it up another gear especially with Cousins coming who looked at first like just an overkill luxury (like an extra cherry on a perfect sundae) to maybe now a real need to win the title.

Edited by UTDD
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ztejas

ztejas 44228

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, NowThis said:

you the idiot arguing Cousins isn't needed?

Did you not watch the Warriors last season?

Only explanation I can come up with for the mind-numbingly stupid assertion that Cousins is a necessity for them.

The league has taken a step back, Durant and Curry are as good as ever, Klay and Dray will Klay and Dray.

Idk if they 3 peat or not but they don't need Cousins to get there. They were the best team in NBA History without him.

You remind me of the teenagers I had to debate on reddit last season that thought the Ws would bow out in the first round without Curry playing.

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NowThis

NowThis 931

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ztejas said:

Did you not watch the Warriors last season?

Only explanation I can come up with for the mind-numbingly stupid assertion that Cousins is a necessity for them.

The league has taken a step back, Durant and Curry are as good as ever, Klay and Dray will Klay and Dray.

Idk if they 3 peat or not but they don't need Cousins to get there. They were the best team in NBA History without him.

You remind me of the teenagers I had to debate on reddit last season that thought the Ws would bow out in the first round without Curry playing.

lol , "were". 

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Message Board User 12405

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

RE: Green's sudden decline:

https://deadspin.com/draymond-green-is-kind-of-killing-the-warriors-1831319478

 

Hopefully GS recognizes this and is able to ship him off to Orlando or Atlanta or another basketball Siberia for spare parts, leaving Green and his mama to languish in relative anonymity for the rest of his career.

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aggie08

aggie08 21796

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

I mean, is that all you want from him?  Solid D and good 3 point shooting?  It's the ultimate 3 and D guy, but to me, I don't know if I want to pay him around 30 million unless I can get a better return.  He can get a 4/139 (35 millionish AAV) million deal from someone else and and 5/190ish (38 million AAV) from Golden State.  Let's say he takes a home town discount and cuts the middle and gets 5 years for 160 with a 3 year opt out.  That's a tremendous financial burden for a guy who's net rating is negative this year and was slightly negative last year.  I understand the narrative, he's not appreciated by the metrics, his egoless example allows Golden State to function with two superstars and perhaps that's true to a degree. 

But you can't disagree on the facts, which is most of the metrics other than 3 point shooting have trended the wrong way.  And frankly, you're using one season to try and bolster your argument.  Until last season, his 3 point shooting had declined for 3 seasons, his low shooting this year is most likely due in part to stat regression of sample size.  Defensive plus/minus, box plus/minus, VORP, PER, WS, WS/148, net rating, etc, etc are trending the wrong way and it's a deep 4 season trend.  My conclusion is  you can't win a championship with Klay as your 2nd best player anymore, at least not this version.  Maybe he would be re-invigorated if he signed with a new team or KD left and he had to pick up the slack but his contract, if it's a AAV of 28-34 million will be considered a bad contract as time judges it IMO.... He needs to be more around 22-24 million and that's rich.  

 

At $35M per, obviously you start getting skittish with anyone not named LeBron, KD, or Steph. But I don't think it'll take that much to sign him. He spoke openly last season about being willing to take less to remain a part of a dynastic team before he [read: his agent] walked it back a little. Well, the silver lining of him having a down year is that Golden State gets to test just how deep of a hometown discount he'll take. I don't think it'll take $30M. $22M-$24M is unrealistic. Who are you getting this offseason for that--or slightly less--that moves the needle if you let Klay walk? Tobias Harris?

Playing it out, if KD opts to stay, obviously you bring back Klay for almost whatever it takes, and pay the insane luxury tax to see how long the run can last. It's not like they'd be able to sign anyone else with Steph and KD already on the books. If KD leaves, their best bet is to try to add a piece or two with KD and Livingston's partially guaranteed contract off the books, then sign Klay with Bird Rights to a hopefully still tradable deal. Then Dray (if he's not traded) and Iggy are off the books in 2020, and you've got options with only Steph and Klay making big money.

I said it then, I'll say it again: that 3rd year that Iggy was able to negotiate by flirting with Houston really fucks up their master planning.

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goatsaag

goatsaag 281

Posted
Posted
On 12/25/2018 at 3:10 PM, Vic Mackey said:

48950356_2452033981510010_86678812003810

I feel like every time I see this mentioned, they also talk about how it had been 40 years since the Bucks played on Christmas day. Scoring 30 is great, but why pretend it's impressive that he's the first to score 30 on Christmas since Kareem when they haven't played on Christmas since Kareem was on the team?

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aggie08

aggie08 21796

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Posted

Got to catch up on some podcasts driving around for the holidays, and Lowe brought up an idea that I really like: end of quarter heaves from halfcourt or further shouldn't count towards the players shooting numbers, unless they go in. Basically treat them like getting fouled while shooting. He said that he knows of a few GMs who have pitched it.

I'm largely okay with the stat passing almost every player does to some extent (gifting your star player free throw rebounds to get him that sweet, sweet triple double, boxing out your own teammates like DeAndre, etc.), but I hate when dudes purposely shoot right after the buzzer or swallow the ball entirely to protect their precious shooting percentage. It robs fans of those 2 seconds of excitement with the ball in the air. LeBron and KD are notorious for this, and often actively avoid the ball. I mean, I get it with how much money is involved and how analytics have been incorporated into legacy talk. But the league would be a better place if everyone chucked full court heaves like Steph and Allen Iverson (two guys who actually are judged largely by shooting %, but do/did it anyway) a couple of times a game.

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immortal13

immortal13 4059

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Posted
56 minutes ago, goatsaag said:

I feel like every time I see this mentioned, they also talk about how it had been 40 years since the Bucks played on Christmas day. Scoring 30 is great, but why pretend it's impressive that he's the first to score 30 on Christmas since Kareem when they haven't played on Christmas since Kareem was on the team?

Because Vic likes memes?

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conVINCEd

conVINCEd 21477

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Got to catch up on some podcasts driving around for the holidays, and Lowe brought up an idea that I really like: end of quarter heaves from halfcourt or further shouldn't count towards the players shooting numbers, unless they go in. Basically treat them like getting fouled while shooting. He said that he knows of a few GMs who have pitched it.

I'm largely okay with the stat passing almost every player does to some extent (gifting your star player free throw rebounds to get him that sweet, sweet triple double, boxing out your own teammates like DeAndre, etc.), but I hate when dudes purposely shoot right after the buzzer or swallow the ball entirely to protect their precious shooting percentage. It robs fans of those 2 seconds of excitement with the ball in the air. LeBron and KD are notorious for this, and often actively avoid the ball. I mean, I get it with how much money is involved and how analytics have been incorporated into legacy talk. But the league would be a better place if everyone chucked full court heaves like Steph and Allen Iverson (two guys who actually are judged largely by shooting %, but do/did it anyway) a couple of times a game.

Luka practically begs for the ball in heave situations.  And I agree with not counting them toward shooting percentages.

Edited by conVINCEd
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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 13473

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Pop is always hilarious but also how is Jokic revolutionizing the game?

Was wondering the same? It’s not like we haven’t seen big men who could pass before. Wilt had a 7 per game season or two, Vlade, Walton, Russell all had some good years too.

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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4275

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Pop is always hilarious but also how is Jokic revolutionizing the game?

i mean im sure there's some arbitrary statistical parameters that involve guys his size shooting threes and dropping dimes where he stands alone, but is he not just a modern day Arvydas Sabonis? I'm talking prime Sabonis, pre-NBA.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3966

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, hobbes2702 said:

Was wondering the same? It’s not like we haven’t seen big men who could pass before. Wilt had a 7 per game season or two, Vlade, Walton, Russell all had some good years too.

 

2 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

i mean im sure there's some arbitrary statistical parameters that involve guys his size shooting threes and dropping dimes where he stands alone, but is he not just a modern day Arvydas Sabonis? I'm talking prime Sabonis, pre-NBA.

Gotcha.... so basically his passing ability and he likes to takes 3's.  Got it.  He's simply taking it to the next level but certainly not the first of his kind.  Fun player though.  Love watching big men who can pass.  

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ztejas

ztejas 44228

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

i mean im sure there's some arbitrary statistical parameters that involve guys his size shooting threes and dropping dimes where he stands alone, but is he not just a modern day Arvydas Sabonis? I'm talking prime Sabonis, pre-NBA.

He is nowhere near the defender Arvydas was in his prime. Probably not quite the all-around scorer, either.

But I do think his passing is similar.

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ztejas

ztejas 44228

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, hobbes2702 said:

Was wondering the same? It’s not like we haven’t seen big men who could pass before. Wilt had a 7 per game season or two, Vlade, Walton, Russell all had some good years too.

Webber was a great dime man. Pau is a great passer as well although he never put up gaudy assist numbers.

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ztejas

ztejas 44228

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

Jokic is is still only 23 years old though, so he's not at his best yet either. 

Fair. I don't think he will ever be as good of a defender, though. Sabonis put up some pretty gaudy defensive metrics in his short NBA career, and it's safe to assume he was a better defender before that.

Keep in mind Sabonis was massive. He was a legit 7'3", 290. I just don't think Jokic has the physical tools to reach prime Sabonis level impact on D.

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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 13473

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Webber was a great dime man. Pau is a great passer as well although he never put up gaudy assist numbers.

Good call on Pau especially. Completely forgot him. Went and looked on basketball reference, didn’t realize that Wilt actually had two seasons around 8, not 7 like I said before, per game. 7.8 and 8.6 while doing 24 and 24 pg as well. Wowzers

Edited by hobbes2702
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d2o

d2o 1603

Posted
Posted
On 12/25/2018 at 2:36 PM, aggie08 said:

The New York Knickerbockers have some really terrible basketball players.

 

That'll be $9.95, please.

I actually like what they and Brooklyn have done with some reclamation projects.   Neither of them are gonna challenge for even the 8th seed so its good to see them get good play from guys like Mudiay, Tre Burke, and Noah Vonleh and Brooklyn getting good play from Dinwiddie, Hollis-Jefferson and Caris Levert before went down with that unfortunate injury.

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d2o

d2o 1603

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

Ryan Hollins doing Ryan Hollins things

 

 

 

ITs like he was auditioning to take SAS' job or something today.   He has been really good when on NBATV.   Today on Get Up and First Take he was a complete joke.

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aggie08

aggie08 21796

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, d2o said:

I dont think it really makes enough of a difference in FG% to even be addressed.

It makes enough of a difference to have guys perfect the art of releasing half a second too late (thus creating the illusion that they're trying), apparently.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2760785-in-the-age-of-curry-and-smarter-stats-players-still-hate-the-desperation-heave

Seriously, despite the handful of aforementioned exceptions, no one except non-3 point shooting big men want to take an end of quarter heaves.

It's a minor annoyance, obviously, but it's such an easy fix. 

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UTDD

UTDD 362

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

Ryan Hollins doing Ryan Hollins things

 

 

Not sure if this totally accurate below (not double checked it myself) but if true even more LOL.

 

2017-2018 & 2018-2019 Clutch Performance (2 MIN or fewer, 1 point game): Giannis Antetokounmpo 11/17 FG (64.7%), 7/10 FT (70%), 3 STL, 1 BLK, 1 TOV, +44.3 NetRtg.

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