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Ball Security

sushihorn

By sushihorn
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sushihorn

sushihorn 3253

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We are just past the halfway mark of the season and in a bye week so I wanted to visit a topic that really stands out.  In an interview with Craig Way, Tom Herman said that this coaching staff requires only 2 things from their offensive skill players: 1) BALL SECURITY and 2) total, fanatical effort.  Everything else the coaches can teach them.  That emphasis appears to be paying off in Herman’s second year.

Most of us know about Sam’s pick free streak of 160+ attempts.  The kid hasn’t thrown one since the Maryland game.  A little over 5 games is a insane string and that is one of the biggest measures of improvement for Sam and the whole offense over last year.  Even with Shane’s interception against Baylor, the Horns have only 3 INTs on the season.  But equally impressive has been the ball security in the running game.

Texas has run the ball 284 times in 2018.  194 carries for the backs and LJH.  Only twice have the backs fumbled the ball: Watson against Maryland and Daniel Young against USC.  Unfortunately both resulted in turnovers.  But almost 100 carries per fumble is again an amazing statistic which has gotten very little notice.  Sam has had 3 fumbles, only one of which was lost.  I’m just not sure how to attribute them to the running game or passing game.

In any case, Texas has gone 3 games without losing a fumble and has not turned the ball over on the ground since the USC game.  6 total turnovers in 7 games is pretty darn good and 3 of those came in the Maryland game.  3 turnovers in the 6 games since is outstanding, especially considering that it spanned the toughest stretch on the schedule.

The 5 total fumbles and 3 lost projects to 8.5 total and 5.2 lost for a full 12 game season.  For comparison, Texas had 19 total and 7 lost in 2017 and 16-11 in 2016.  The 3 picks project to 5.2 for the season vs 11 and 12 the prior 2 years.  I’d say the focus on ball security is starting to sink in with the players.

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XYZ

XYZ 2154

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Yeah, this trend is pretty awesome. During the TCU game especially, as the game went on and the turnovers kept happening for TCU but not for Texas, I felt that was kind of squeezing the life out of TCU, like a boa constrictor that tightens the grip on every out breath from its prey. The punt at the end was glorious. “We are done”.

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Zavala

Zavala 1384

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Shane nearly threw two interceptions. Apparently lack of ball security will get you a comfy spot on the sidelines. We will see in the future what happens, but I've been amazed how great they are at holding onto the ball and not throwing picks.

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Vertigo

Vertigo 20502

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Another overlooked stat about the Maryland game is that 2 of the 3 turnovers could be directly attributed to the deluge we were playing in. On Watson's fumble, the guy punched it out at the last second and you could see all types of water coming off the ball. One of Sam's picks was due to him just losing grip on the ball and throwing a floater right to the linebacker.  

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JBJ

JBJ 3830

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The most underrated aspect of ball security is pass protection.  A good portion of interceptions stem from disruption up front.  And a good portion of fumbles are strip sacks.

The Oline play has been a big contributor, if not the main reason, of this improvement.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3253

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16 hours ago, JBJ said:

The most underrated aspect of ball security is pass protection.  A good portion of interceptions stem from disruption up front.  And a good portion of fumbles are strip sacks.

The Oline play has been a big contributor, if not the main reason, of this improvement.

True.  I tried to adjust for that by looking at fumbles by the RBs vs rush attempts.  At least that eliminated the strip sacks from the equation.

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Atticus

Atticus 4227

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23 hours ago, JBJ said:

The most underrated aspect of ball security is pass protection.  A good portion of interceptions stem from disruption up front.  And a good portion of fumbles are strip sacks.

The Oline play has been a big contributor, if not the main reason, of this improvement.

Your username makes me want to do bad things

Ball security.

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Slacks

Slacks 7079

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After point differential (obviously), turnover differential is the highest correlated stat to wins/losses.  Securing the ball / not turning it over is something that players can directly address on EVERY play. The likelihood of scoring on a single play is low.  The likelihood of turning the ball over on any single play is much higher. Texas could have easily lost against Tulsa, KSU, ou, BU...  Tulsa threw us 2. ou and baylor both threw 1.  We won all of those games by one possession worth of points. TCU turned the ball over a bunch, and we rolled.  We turned it over to UMd and lost.

Ball security is something to be fanatical about. I'm glad it's working out in our favor (except for Maryland)

 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34751

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9 minutes ago, Snacks said:

After point differential (obviously), turnover differential is the highest correlated stat to wins/losses.

That's not true. Other than points stats, the stat most highly correlated to wins/losses over the 12 years I studied (2000-2011) was yards allowed per play. Yards allowed per pass attempt was the most highly correlated component stat. This was based on season ranks, though, not per game values.

Turnover margin was behind:

Yards allowed per play
Yards allowed per pass attempt
Yards gained per play
Yards gained per pass attempt
Yards allowed per carry
3rd down conversion percentage allowed
Yards allowed per possession
Yards allowed per game
3rd down conversion percentage
Yards gained per possession

Then came turnover margin per possession.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34751

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To follow up on my previous post, I looked at all 2017 games between FBS opponents.

Teams winning the turnover margin went 483-143 for a .772 winning percentage. 149 games had an equal number of turnovers.

Teams which had more total passing yards per attempt went 618-157 for a .797 winning percentage.

I threw out the game where Army had zero passing attempts to keep the populations the same.

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52-80

52-80 19377

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49 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

To follow up on my previous post, I looked at all 2017 games between FBS opponents.

Teams winning the turnover margin went 483-143 for a .772 winning percentage. 149 games had an equal number of turnovers.

Teams which had more total passing yards per attempt went 618-157 for a .797 winning percentage.

I threw out the game where Army had zero passing attempts to keep the populations the same.

I did some math and turns out, teams which scored more than the other had a 1.000 winning percentage

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