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2018-2019 Astros Offseason Thread

Planet Houston

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Planet Houston

Planet Houston 4,930

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Well, it just wasn't in the cards this year.  A combination of great play by the BoSox, the injury bug, inopportune cold streaks and inability to put batters away with 2 outs resulted in an early exit for our Stros.  Blue didn't help, but that's not an excuse.

This will be an interesting offseason, to say the least.  Decisions to be made on Keuchel, Marwin, McCann (I believe - don't think his option vested), Gattis, Morton, Sipp and Maldonado.  I'd guess that of that group, Morton will be the only one back on a short-term deal (if he doesn't retire).

Free agency outside of Harper and Machado looks choppy at best.  Will Whitley, Tucker, Straw and others be ready to fill some big shoes?

I can't wait for April.  Personally, I felt a tiny bit of complacency as a fan all season.  Back-to-back WS titles would have been incredible, but with baseball being baseball, the chances were slim, and who am I, as a Houston sports fan, to be greedy?  Well, that feeling is gone as of 10:42pm last night.  And I know that Bregman, Altuve, Springer, JV, Cole etc. feel that way.  I hope Correa does too - will be a big offseason and season for him.

Here's to starting a Giants-esque run of multiple titles.  

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Planet Houston
Planet Houston

Well, it just wasn't in the cards this year.  A combination of great play by the BoSox, the injury bug, inopportune cold streaks and inability to put batters away with 2 outs resulted in an early exit

Seasick Sailor
Seasick Sailor

Thanks for the memories:

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

am i the only one having trouble understanding wtf this means?

Mez2

Mez2 4,023

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I would offer Morton another 2 year deal, hopefully he doesnt get a much higher contract than what we would offer, assuming it's a fair offer for him. DK will get a QA and hope I hope someone else overpays for him. It was a good run here DK but not sure if it's in the cards for an extended run. If so, I would be shocked. 

I do think Marwin should get a serious offer from us and hope we don't get outbid, which we probably will. The duration of the season means he'll always have a role on this team and not sure if anyone else can fill that the way he can. Unless they groom Straw, or are planning on Straw to be that guy? I know he was playing IF this season in the minors and he's an OF by trade. 

McCann, Sipp, Maldy and Gattis will likely not be retained; sucks because as much as I liked Maldy over the course of a regular season I will not forget him botching almost every fucking pitch that was low this series. That's rough, especially when you pride yourself on defense as a catcher - I can be talked into this down the road, having him back, but right now I'm bummed.

Needs: a true designated hitter, someone we can consistently rely on and not have to play matchups all the time because of splits. SWING THE FUCKING BAT TYLER WHITE. Is Yordan Alvarez that guy? JD Davis (probably not)? 

An additional starting pitcher, although we may have an answer in house for that - CMac, James, Bukkake, Forrest?  - especially with LMJ possibly out next year

Everyday left fielder: Ted. Please don't be skinny AJ Reed. 

Health. Get healthy,  get some rest. These guys have got to be exhausted, fuck I'm exhausted from watching them all year, on top of what they did last year into November. 

Losing sucks. Fuck bud selig and fuck joe west. 

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mbtex

mbtex 683

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1 minute ago, Mez2 said:

An additional starting pitcher, although we may have an answer in house for that - CMac, James, Bukkake, Forrest?  - especially with LMJ possibly out next year

Framber could be another option if He can learn some control. 

I would love to work out a trade for Goldschmidt could be a good DH and fill in for Yuli on occasion.

 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6,312

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Keuchel: He'll be 31 next season. He was pretty good this year - he ranked 22nd among starting pitchers in fWAR, and he is 26th over the last 3 years. For a #3 guy, that's obviously pretty good. I can't see him signing a QO because he figures to get some good multiyear offers elsewhere. 

Marwin: He'll be 30 next season. He's a useful player, but 2017 is probably the best year he'll have. I think his performance this season is more indicative of the type of player he is. He's a great utility guy but he should not be getting ABs as a corner OF - need more offense out of a LF. I doubt he gets any kind of huge deal anywhere but there will be interest in him because of his versatility. But I think he's not much more than an average hitter. I wouldn't overpay for him, and it seems likely somebody else will.

LF, DH and C seem like areas that need to be upgraded. We could improve at 1B too, as Yuli is pretty ordinary, but he'll be back so probably no change there. Maybe Tucker can make the leap to becoming a decent hitter at the MLB level in 2019 - really, we need him to.

White is probably not the answer at DH. JD Davis is probably not the answer to anything. 

 

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Hook'Em0608

Hook'Em0608 96

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I think the team is going to roll the dice on Tucker being the everyday guy in LF. I also think that is probably the correct decision. We can address it at the trade deadline if it doesn't work out. I think the kid can fix the holes in his batting approach. He has the talent. 

DH I'm not sure what to do. I don't really want to break the bank for a DH. Hopefully White, Davis, or somebody has a good offseason and can fill this role. An expensive hitter who can't really play the field at the expense of resigning someone like Marwin doesn't really get me excited. Injuries are going to continue to happen and Marwin is so valuable it filling in with only a minor drop off in production. 

C I'm also at a loss about what to do. Maldanado/Stassi is decent, but if something becomes available that is better, by all means. That's just so few and far between I feel like we would have to give up a big pitching prospect to secure it. 

Our team doesn't really have major holes, which is why it's frustrating they couldn't put it together this year when it mattered.

I think more than anything, we just need to get healthy. I felt like the front office did a really good job building this team. On paper, it looks more complete than the one we won it all with.  

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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3,747

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Formatting is fucked up, but looks like we should have ~$30 million to spend on resigning or acquiring free agents if we keep the salary at 2018 levels. Could easily resign Charlie and absorb Goldy's contract if we are willing to give up the assets to get him.

The Astros' Doomsday Scenario:

 

The Houston Astros won the World Series last year. They had a really good chance of winning it again this year. Unfortunately for the team, a really good chance in the playoffs still topped out below a 50/50 shot, and they ran into a really good Red Sox team that played well. Winning back-to-back championships is hard. No team has done it since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000. Even making it to the World Series in back-to-back seasons is difficult. Since that Yankees’ team made it to the series again in 2001, only the Phillies in 2008 and 2009, the Rangers in 2010 and 2011, and the Royals in 2014 and 2015 have participated in the World Series in back-to-back years. The odds were in the Astros’ favor and simultaneously stacked against them. Always take the field.

The Astros are incredibly well set up for the future. In Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa, the team has not only three legitimate stars but potential MVP candidates. This 2018 season was not a good one for the 25-year-old Correa, whose lower-back problems sidelined him at times and rendered him an average player when he was in the lineup. Consider how well the Astros persevered, though, despite lacking the services of six-win player. Kris Bryant of the Cubs had a similar season, for example, and the Cubs’ offense struggled to score runs, eventually losing in the Wild Card Game and firing their hitting coach. The Dodgers were huge favorites in the National League West. Without Corey Seager, however, they struggled to 90 wins and a 163rd game for the division after acquiring a similar player for half the season in the form of Manny Machado.

 

Alex Bregman emerged as a star, Jose Altuve put together a very good season despite his own injury issues, and George Springer turned in another good season. On offense, the team took a step back from its MLB-best 123 wRC+ in 2017, but still put together the fourth-best offense (110 wRC+) in the majors. The downturn in offense made little difference, as the pitching stepped up. A full year of ace Justin Verlander plus a trade for co-ace Gerrit Cole paced the team with 13 combined WAR, while Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr., and Charlie Morton all put together above average seasons. Those five pitchers made 152 of the team’s 162 starts. The rotation’s 22.5 WAR placed them just behind Cleveland’s and meant the bullpen had to cover just 499.2 innings. Houston didn’t have a problem with middle relievers because they never had to use them.

 

Heading into next season, nearly every major contributor is back, with Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton the notable exceptions and Evan Gattis, Marwin Gonzalez, Brian McCann, and Tony Sipp also set to become free agents. To help mitigate some of those losses, Houston can turn to two of the top prospects in baseball, Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley. The 21-year-old Tucker struggled in a brief callup to the majors but crushed Triple-A pitching and should be ready for a bigger role next season. Whitley missed the first part of the season with a suspension while his second half was truncated by a lat injury, but the 21-year-old righty did pitch well when he played, and he could find himself a role on next year’s team as well. Josh James emerged late in this season and is a good candidate for a role either in the rotation or back in the bullpen. Prospects J.B. Bukauskas, Corbin Martin, and Cionel Perez might be in a position to help the team at some point next year. Garrett Stubbs could be part of the solution at catcher.

The Astros are well positioned to repeat as AL West champs without making any significant additions. Even with arbitration raises, their payroll commitments look to be around $130 million for 2019, which is $30 million less than they were at the beginning of the 2018 campaign. For a team that drew nearly 3 million fans — 580,000 more than 2017 — in a very large Houston market, $160 million is hardly as high as the team could go if they wanted. They’ll need starting pitching and could bring back Keuchel or Morton or both, sign one of the other available free agents, or make a trade with their considerable prospect depth.

All of this is to say that the Astros will probably be very good again next season. But it is possible they won’t be. This is how it could happen:

 

  • Injuries to Altuve and Correa linger into next season, and the players are slightly compromised. Maybe they don’t fall off a cliff completely, but perhaps they can’t quite play up to the level expected of them. Alex Bregman is great, but a 7.6 WAR season is hard to repeat for anybody. Compare the Astros trio of Altuve, Bregman, and Correa to the Nationals’ Harper, Rendon, and Turner. Sometimes it doesn’t all come together, and sometimes it just isn’t enough. A rebound from George Springer provides some insulation, but it’s hardly a guarantee. The Astros’ big three combined for 16.3 WAR in 2017 and 14 WAR in 2018. A drop to 10-12 wins isn’t unfathomable.
  • Yuli Gurriel and Josh Reddick continue their declines. In 201,7 the pair hit for a 119 and 128 wRC+, respectively, and combined for five wins. This season, they hit 107 and 99 wRC+, respectively, and combined for 2.3 WAR. Gurriel will be 35 years old and Reddick turns 32 in February. Expecting better in 2019 is unreasonable and worse is a more likely outcome.
  • Kyle Tucker still isn’t ready. Assuming the Astros clear a spot for Tucker, they will have Springer in center field with Reddick in right. If Tucker doesn’t play well, the Astros might get poor production out of two of the three outfield positions.
  • Justin Verlander wears down. Over the last three years, Verlander has logged nearly 700 innings between the regular season and the playoffs from the age of 33 to 35 years old. Over the last 30 years, Kevin Brown, Roger Clemens, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, Kenny Rogers, Curt Schilling, and David Wells had similar workloads and performance at that age, including a good age-35 season. Those seven went from an average WAR of 6.3 in their age-35 seasons to 3.3 at 36 years old, with only Wells approximating his performance from the season before. Verlander looks great, but even the great ones have trouble sustaining their performance every year.
  • Rookies and free agents can’t get the job done in the rotation. In Kuechel and Morton, the team has to replace nearly seven wins in the rotation. Expecting Cole or Verlander to be any better isn’t reasonable, and it isn’t entirely clear how many innings McCullers is capable of throwing. The Astros had no significant pitching injuries this season. Things don’t normally go that way.
  • The bullpen just isn’t good. It happens.

The Astros were a 103-win team in the standings and on paper last season with the team not benefiting from any good or bad luck when it comes to sequencing. They will probably project close to 95 wins next season, as well, but that’s not a guarantee of continued success. The Nationals were projected to win 92 games and finished 10 games below that mark. Cleveland was projected to win 96 games and won only 91. If Houston had won 88 games this year, they would not have made the playoffs. The Astros are probably going to have another really good season next year, but don’t take this one for granted, and don’t be shocked if things fall apart. It isn’t likely, but the possibility is there.

Looks like we will have ~$30 million to spend on resigning or acquiring free agents. Could easily resign Charlie and make a run at Goldy if we are willing to give up some assets to get him. 

Edited by Seasick Sailor
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Jshep34

Jshep34 2,308

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Hopefully we can make a trip to wpb next year. Next year will be Correa make or break year. Hate to hear news about LMJ. Think Ted could hold down LF if given time. Im not sold on Goldy coming here as a 1 year rental. Think team was worn out. Heres to odd year titles. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6,312

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4 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Is Whitley at this point in time better than James and Framber ?

Seems like Whitley has had a glut of minor league injuries. I think he’ll be a mid season call up.

i hope we offer CFM. 

He's better, yes, but may not be quite ready. Agree that he's a likely mid-season guy. 

Would be nice to get Morton on a short-term deal. 

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Mez2

Mez2 4,023

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i'm not so sure we don't make a move or offer for goldy even with just one year, JV and George are both through the end of their deals, and I believe Cole, too? fuck if we're going to make a serious run for him/someone, maybe this time makes the most sense? 

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kevwun

kevwun 15,758

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If they get Morton to come back, I would be ok with rolling with a rotation of JV, Cole, Morton, James/Whitley/Valdez to start next season.  Can always trade for another starter if it's necessary.  Don't think Alvarez will be ready at the start of next year as a potential DH unless he just tears it up during spring training.

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6,312

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15 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

We have a ton of pieces to deal with, we don’t have to chase an overpaid FA. Make a move for a younger talent.

 

Yeah, I don't think the club will overpay on the FA market. We could conceivably upgrade at DH for pretty cheap though (maybe even trade for a guy like Justin Smoak, who has an option year left and probably wouldn't cost much as Toronto makes room for Vlad Jr). 

LF still a problem...obviously the hope is that Tucker can take it and run with it. He's done about everything he can do in the minors at this point (at a young age for his levels) - I'm sure he'll get first crack at it. 

I wouldn't be opposed to going after Goldschmidt if AZ decides to tear it down (though I'm not convinced they will), but I probably wouldn't go too crazy with prospects in that deal. But if you could get him for Alvrarez and some lower-grade guys, it may be worth it. It's a gamble, to be sure, since you're only getting him for a year. Lunhow generally likes to target guys in trades that have multiple years left. 

Not sure if any other teams (besides possibly AZ) are heading toward a tear-down...so probably nobody like Stanton/Yelich available via trade like last offseason. Maybe the Mets, but I doubt it, maybe SF, but they don't have much (they aren't trading Posey or Bumgarner in all likelihood).

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76,862

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Marwin is a huge part of the clubhouse. I could see the Yankees making him an offer, or Seattle 

Keuchel is getting a healthy offer. Too many big teams need pitching. Yankees will be in the mix here also

I hope we can keep Morton, we are a better rotation with him.

i can see framber takings sipp’s spot but he’ll be fighting for a starting spot

Goldy would be huge pick up 

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Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 10,954

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Someone's going to pay Marwin with a 3/40 contract, and it won't be the Astros.  Between Kemp and Yuli, I think the team is OK on utility guys.

Speaking of D-Backs - how big/long of a contract is Pollock going to bring on the FA market?  He's a career 20 WAR player with .805 career OPS.  Pollock, Springer, Reddick, and Tucker as your first four in the OF could be pretty solid. (sorry, Jake)  Two RH and two LH OF bats lets you mix up the OF lineup for matchups.  

I'd rather spend money on an FA than give up the prospects it would take to get Goldschmidt. 

If LMJ needs TJ, Luhnow needs to make a very serious effort to bring CFM back.  Don't need to spend money on or trade for any other pitching than that.  There is plenty of pitching talent that is waiting in the wings.

Big thanks to Keuchel, Marwin, Gattis, Sipp, and McCann and best of luck in your next stop.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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He's younger but I think they are comparable offensively and Grandal is probably better defensively, notwithstanding his performance this postseason.  He owns BPro's catcher stats that incorporates pitch framing, blocking, and throwing.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899425

But, if LMJ is out next season then they may not have enough money to sign a good catcher.  

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8,065

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2 hours ago, Hook'Em0608 said:

I think more than anything, we just need to get healthy. I felt like the front office did a really good job building this team. On paper, it looks more complete than the one we won it all with.  

Yeah, a really good team bowed out last night. We can be bummed about losing to Boston (and we are), but the Red Sox now have dispatched two other 100-win clubs without having to go the max in the process. They're not doing it with mirrors, though Price and Bradley make me wonder what sort of sorcery they might have invoked in Houston. Boston just seems to be a stronger team than anyone we faced in 2017.

Catcher could be a real issue. Left field is an issue. DH is an issue. Solve catcher (don't know how) and at least one of the remaining two and with any pitching we could win 100 again. We might anyway, but it's impossible to say how much the AL in general and the West in particular will strengthen over the winter. Might take as good a club as we had this year to win 95 games.

I'd say the real Tyler White lies somewhere between the guy who carried us in mid-season and the guy who didn't do much before or after. Can't see him as an sort of a fixture, unless it turns out to be as a DH against lefties. Need more LH offense (yeah, offense in general), so maybe Tucker and/or Alvarez can contribute well enough at the plate to get regular ABs. Sure would help if at least one can show flashes. I don't know what the short-term plan is for Alvarez, but I like his talent.

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18,837

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6 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

Yeah, a really good team bowed out last night. We can be bummed about losing to Boston (and we are), but the Red Sox now have dispatched two other 100-win clubs without having to go the max in the process. They're not doing it with mirrors, though Price and Bradley make me wonder what sort of sorcery they might have invoked in Houston. Boston just seems to be a stronger team than anyone we faced in 2017.

Catcher could be a real issue. Left field is an issue. DH is an issue. Solve catcher (don't know how) and at least one of the remaining two and with any pitching we could win 100 again. We might anyway, but it's impossible to say how much the AL in general and the West in particular will strengthen over the winter. Might take as good a club as we had this year to win 95 games.

I'd say the real Tyler White lies somewhere between the guy who carried us in mid-season and the guy who didn't do much before or after. Can't see him as an sort of a fixture, unless it turns out to be as a DH against lefties. Need more LH offense (yeah, offense in general), so maybe Tucker and/or Alvarez can contribute well enough at the plate to get regular ABs. Sure would help if at least one can show flashes. I don't know what the short-term plan is for Alvarez, but I like his talent.

We lost to a really good team. Winning the world series is hard.

Let's get better. 

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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3,747

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12 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I'd love to get Goldie.  But man, he would be expensive.

Do we still want him if costs some combination of White, James, Whitley, and Tucker?  How many of those does it take?

I think Tucker and Whitley are still untouchable, especially for a guy in a walk year. Not sure we say no if White, James, and another mid or lower level prospect gets it done. Although that will likely depend on what happens with LMJ and Charlie. If both are not on the roster next season, I don't think we'll give up James.

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6,312

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1 hour ago, TexArcher said:

I'd love to get Goldie.  But man, he would be expensive.

Do we still want him if costs some combination of White, James, Whitley, and Tucker?  How many of those does it take?

No, you don't include Tucker or Whitley in a deal for a 1-year guy. Only makes sense to include a guy like Tucker if you are getting someone like Yelich last offseason, as he's signed for a few years. 

But Yordan Alvarez? You'd have to consider parting with him in a Goldschmidt deal, I'd think. 

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