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2018-2019 Astros Offseason Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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Planet Houston
Planet Houston

Well, it just wasn't in the cards this year.  A combination of great play by the BoSox, the injury bug, inopportune cold streaks and inability to put batters away with 2 outs resulted in an early exit

Seasick Sailor
Seasick Sailor

Thanks for the memories:

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

am i the only one having trouble understanding wtf this means?

Jshep34

Jshep34 2425

Posted
Posted

Fanfest passed without a trade. Great time with lilshep. Play catch in outfield.  Throw in bullpen, take some hacks in the cages. Plenty of autographs (by now he has about 150 baseballs). He hung out with his gf. Showed her his championship rings. Fanfest has gotten crazy with the success of the team. Over 12k showed up.

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formermav43

formermav43 4625

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, WBT said:

Yeah but he's better.  If the money's right (it won't be), you unreplace him.  

I’m not actually convinced that’s true, aside from the nostalgia of Astros fans.

Diaz last year: 102 wRC+, 1.6 WAR

Marwin: 104 wRC+, 1.6 WAR

Their career wRC+ is similar, slight advantage to Diaz: 108 vs 103. Projection for next year, 105 vs 104.

Marwin’s only advantage is his versatility. But the metrics point to him as a bad defender everywhere except the outfield and 1st. Diaz is comparable at SS and better at 3rd. The others, not much of a sample size. But 1) they’re reportedly going to try him some in LF and 2) that versatility isn’t essential with the current roster, between Brantley and Yuli.

I don’t think Marwin’s willingness to stand in more spots in the field is worth paying him anything for this current team. Diaz is a comparable player already in house.

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Jshep34

Jshep34 2425

Posted
Posted

As days go by without manny/bryce signed, which i think is holding up other players, how long till teams just roll into 2019 with what they got now. I dont see any player getting those huge deals they were expecting 3 years ago. The ways teams are bullt and financially managed has drastically changed in 5 years.

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3930

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Jshep34 said:

As days go by without manny/bryce signed, which i think is holding up other players, how long till teams just roll into 2019 with what they got now. I dont see any player getting those huge deals they were expecting 3 years ago. The ways teams are bullt and financially managed has drastically changed in 5 years.

I think you’ll see higher per year but shorter term deals. Harper et al know their worth 

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Jshep34

Jshep34 2425

Posted
Posted

Think the 8-10 year deals are gone. If im bryce or manny i strike a 3 year deal at 30 per. Then at 29/30 go for 4-5 year deal at 25 per. With they way teams are being built thats about the only way they are going to get paid . Itll be interesting once labor deal is up in 2020

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 15230

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 1/26/2019 at 10:54 PM, WBT said:

Yeah but he's better.  If the money's right (it won't be), you unreplace him.  

No he's not better than Diaz.

Diaz is 2 years younger, and most importantly under team control for another 4 seasons.

Diaz in 3 seasons - .783 OPS, 106 OPS+, .332 wOBA, 108 wRC+, 4.5 WAR, 1.3 Def

Marwin in 7 seasons - .737 OPS, 103 OPS+, .319 wOBA, 103 wRC+, 7.8 WAR, -11.9 Def

Marwin is also not better than Brantley.

Marwin has no place on this club anymore.

Keuchel should be resigned if the money can be worked out, but only on a 2-3 year deal. No way Keuchel is getting a 5 year deal from anyone.

Edited by HtownHorn
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29225

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

No he's not better than Diaz.

Diaz is 2 years younger, and most importantly under team control for another 4 seasons.

Diaz in 3 seasons - .783 OPS, 106 OPS+, .332 wOBA, 108 wRC+, 4.5 WAR, 1.3 Def

Marwin in 7 seasons - .737 OPS, 103 OPS+, .319 wOBA, 103 wRC+, 7.8 WAR, -11.9 Def

Marwin is also not better than Brantley.

Marwin has no place on this club anymore.

Keuchel should be resigned if the money can be worked out, but only on a 2-3 year deal. No way Keuchel is getting a 5 year deal from anyone.

i think it's a little unfair to compare marwin's full career (7 years) because he's definitely become a different player the last 3-4.  i felt comfortable with him being a dangerous hitter in key spots in the playoffs or big regular season games, and he came through on numerous occasions.

that said, he is what he is - a valuable, versatile piece who can play multiple positions and get a key hit for a playoff team.  he's not a rising star, or a regular starter on a top 5 mlb team.  i'm happy with diaz as his replacement, and agree we don't really have a spot for him.

sucks for him that he wasn't a fa a few years ago when zobrist got paid.  this is not the year to be a swiss army knife (marwin) or a soft throwing durable lefty (dk) entering free agency. 

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9814

Posted
Posted

Kaplan on our hitting coaches.
Definitely a bit unorthodox
Should be interesting

Like for players, the Astros treat their farm system as a coaching development pipeline. Two offseasons in a row now, they’ve dipped into the minors to fill openings on their major-league staff for the assistant hitting coach and bullpen coach positions.

Alex Cintrón, however, followed a completely different track to his prominent role on manager A.J. Hinch’s staff, on which he last year served as first-base coach and this season will be the hitting coach. His initiation to Houston and the team’s data-driven ways came two seasons ago in a role that didn’t even have him in uniform.

Cintrón got his start with the Astros as their interpreter, a position mandated for all teams by MLB three years ago. When he was hired in April 2017, his primary job was to translate for Spanish-speaking players in interviews with reporters. By the end of the team’s World Series run, his duties had evolved into much more.

Cintrón’s first year with Houston basically doubled as a major-league coaching internship. The former journeyman infielder worked closely with the Astros’ data- and video-centric advance scouting team, and through his keen eye in the video room he gained the trust of fellow Puerto Rican Carlos Beltrán, who vouched for him to the other players. When bench coach Alex Cora left the Astros for a weekend that July after the birth of his twin boys, Cintrón slipped into uniform and filled in for three games. After rosters expanded that September, he was in uniform full-time as an extra coach.

“Well, he was a big leaguer first,” Hinch said in explaining Cintrón’s unique path to the coaching staff. “He played a long time and certainly was as much of a coach as you could have in the translator role. We were very fortunate to have somebody who wanted to work, with his résumé as a player. And that easily transitioned into the coach role.”

Cintrón was a switch-hitter who played parts of nine major-league seasons from 2001 to 2009, primarily as a utility player. In his exposure to the baseball operations side with the Astros, he impressed Hinch with his feel for the game, his baseball intellect and his ability to relate to the players. The manager’s high opinion became evident after the 2017 World Series. To keep Cintrón from following his close friend Cora to the Red Sox, the Astros promoted their interpreter to first-base coach as the successor to the retiring Rich Dauer.

When last November hitting coach Dave Hudgens left to become the Blue Jays’ bench coach and assistant hitting coach Jeff Albert departed to be the Cardinals’ hitting coach, Cintrón’s ascent continued.

“He knows us. He’s been with us for two years already, so he knows what adjustments we make, what adjustments we need to do in order for us to be successful, what works for every single player,” Astros shortstop Carlos Correa said. “So, I think he will adjust pretty quick.”


Loren Elliott/MLB Photos via Getty Images
The 40-year-old Cintrón is one of two hitting coaches on Houston’s 2019 coaching staff, a dynamic that has become customary around the majors. Unlike his previous staffs, though, Hinch didn’t anoint a lead hitting coach and an assistant hitting coach. At least as far as titles go, Cintrón and Troy Snitker will be equals. Snitker, the 30-year-old son of Braves manager Brian Snitker, spent the previous three years as an Astros minor-league hitting coach and is on a major-league staff for the first time.

Both will learn on the job, though even in his season as first-base coach Cintrón assisted from time to time with the Astros’ hitters. Snitker knows some of the younger hitters from his work in the minors.

“I think the way that the job has evolved, and specifically with our guys, I don’t think we need to distinguish one versus the other because they’re going to be collaborative and doing it together,” Hinch said. “Obviously, Cintrón has more experience and deeper relationships now with our hitters and Snitker will have to get to know our hitters pretty quickly. So, I would think Alex will lead initially early on. But it’s a dual job, and it actually functions that way on most teams; it’s just everybody has always identified a number one and a number two.”

Cintrón believes his pre-existing relationships with the players and his experience collaborating with the front office in his advance scouting role will ease his transition. He and Snitker are inheriting an offense that ranked sixth in the majors in OPS (.754) and runs per game (4.92) last season and added Michael Brantley in December. One of their most important tasks will be helping Correa bounce back from his worst career offensive campaign. Correa has declared himself 100 percent healthy after a back injury spoiled his 2018, but it remains to be seen how easily or quickly he can rediscover his old swing mechanics.

“I’m going to identify with every hitter what they need,” Cintrón said when asked about his general hitting philosophy. “Because some guys are old school like Brantley and (Yuli) Gurriel. … If José (Altuve) needs more mental talk, I will talk with José more mental than mechanical. It’s going to be different for everybody.”

As a player, Cintrón came up with the Diamondbacks and also had major-league stints with the White Sox, Orioles and Nationals. He bounced around with various teams in Triple A, independent ball and the Mexican League before retiring in May 2012. He settled in Houston late in his playing career and ran select baseball programs locally for kids before joining the Astros. To land the interpreter position, he simply applied online and interviewed with members of the front office as any other candidate would. As the 2017 season unfolded, Hinch asked the front office for more access to Cintrón.

Cintrón worked to bolster his résumé this offseason by managing winter ball in his native Puerto Rico, an experience he said gave him better perspective of all that Hinch’s job entails. When not leading the Gigantes de Carolina, Cintrón studied video and touched base with the Astros hitters to ready for his first spring training in his most important role yet.

“The fact that he’s been around our previous hitting coaches, he’s been around our organization, and the fact that he knows our players, it will make the transition to this job very simple for him,” Hinch said. “It’s a tough job. He’ll work hard. He never stops trying to find the key that unlocks each hitter’s success. And when you look at the hitters that he’s going to get to work with, these guys are elite and that means they can also make adjustments very quickly, and Alex helping provide that should be a good combo.”

 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6351

Posted
Posted (edited)

Top prospect lists are starting to roll out...

Keith Law (ESPN) has: RHP Forrest Whitley (#4), OF Kyle Tucker (#17), RHP Corbin Martin (#48), RHP JB Bukauskas (#67), RHP Josh James (#70). Some snippets:

Spoiler

Whitley has a legitimate five-pitch mix -- yes, five -- along with size, control and a good delivery, all of which adds up to a potential No. 1 starter and someone who can help a major league team right away...the Astros already have an ace or two on their big league staff, but Whitley has the stuff to match any of them.

Tucker has done nothing but hit everywhere in the minors, but a tough, low-BABIP major league debut of a whopping 64 at-bats seems to have changed the narrative around him. He's an all-fields hitter with an easy left-handed stroke that allows him to produce power from his pull side all the way over to left-center. He's already showing plus power in games, but he has room left for physical projection as well...He's clearly ready for a major league role.

Martin looks like he should have been a first-rounder now that his velocity is sitting at 93-94 mph as a starter, touching 97, among four average or better pitches including a slider that flashes plus, a power low-80s curveball and a hard but effective changeup...From college reliever to a prospect with a No. 4 starter floor and No. 2 starter upside in 18 months is a heck of a transition.

Bukauskas: I don't foresee him throwing 180 innings regularly, but he could be a mid-rotation starter if he holds up, and he has high upside in relief if the delivery eventually forces him out of a starter role.

James has gone from a maybe-reliever to a likely starter, with a huge fastball that plays, a plus slider and an average changeup, and he holds his stuff deep into starts. You can dream on him pitching atop a rotation, although his command probably will keep him more in the above-average category -- but to get there from where he was 15 months ago is a heck of an achievement.

MLB Pipeline (Callis & Mayo) has: Whitley (#7), Tucker (#8), Yordan Alvarez (#44), James (#62), Martin (#81), Bukauskas (#97).

Edited by Hank Chinaski
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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6351

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

I wonder why Law has soured on Alvarez so much.  Also, Martin seems a little high in the top 50 given his K% struggles following his promotion to the Texas League.  

Yeah, he hasn't been big on Alvarez for a while. I think he views Alvarez as a 1B/DH-only type and he usually doesn't rate those guys very highly (logic being that if they don't hit a lot, they don't offer any value). I think he's putting out his overviews of each team's system in a few days, will be interesting to see what his thoughts are on Alvarez.

Edited by Hank Chinaski
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Scraps

Scraps 13799

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Alvin89 said:

According to one report, Keuchel is deciding between Houston, Milwaukee, and Atlanta. It sounded like Houston offered 2 years, Milwaukee 3 years, and the Atlanta offer wasn't listed.

2 yr with option for Astros deal if you believe some rando in atlanta 

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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3747

Posted
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Scraps said:

2 yr with option for Astros deal if you believe some rando in atlanta 

I'd take that if I'm DK. I believe that gets him through the next CBA, which gives him another crack at free agency under whatever the new rules may be. And if he wins another WS or two, his stock only goes up. 

Edited by Seasick Sailor
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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6351

Posted
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

I'd take that if I'm DK. I believe that gets him through the next CBA, which gives him another crack at free agency under whatever the new rules may be. And if he wins another WS or two, his stock only goes up. 

His stock isn't likely to go up simply because he's 31, so signing a 2-year deal would make him a FA again at 33 - and teams will be less willing to take a chance on an older pitcher. This is probably his last shot at a contract of longer than 2/3 years. 

But yeah, at some point it could make sense to take a shorter deal with a higher annual salary. I still think he'll sign a 4/5 year deal with somebody, but the longer he remains unsigned, the more likely he is to sign for something like 2 years / $ 45 MM and try free agency again in a couple years. 

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MAROON

MAROON 446

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

A buddy of mine was sitting behind Reid Ryan on a plane to Denver yesterday.  He overheard Ryan tell the guy he was sitting next to that Keuchel is asking for a 6-year deal. 

Boras is crazy if he actually thinks any team will sign him for that long.

that's nuts.  Dallas has had a few season cut short by injury already.  Not a great trend for a 31 year old guy.  Ya, let's sign him until he's 37!

Edited by MAROON
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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6351

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Planet Houston said:

A buddy of mine was sitting behind Reid Ryan on a plane to Denver yesterday.  He overheard Ryan tell the guy he was sitting next to that Keuchel is asking for a 6-year deal. 

Boras is crazy if he actually thinks any team will sign him for that long.

I'm sure he is asking for that. But I doubt anyone is going to give it to him. He's 31, not a hard thrower and has had shoulder and neck issues in the past 3 years. 

I still think he'll end up with something like 4 years / $75-80 MM range. I don't think HOU would be interested at that price.

 

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kevwun

kevwun 16437

Posted
Posted (edited)

He's not negotiating up from 2-3 year deals to that.  Teams know he's had a drop off and it's very unlikely he's ever getting back to what he was a few years ago.  He would have already signed if anyone had offered something like that.

Edited by kevwun
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