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2018-2019 Astros Offseason Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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Planet Houston
Planet Houston

Well, it just wasn't in the cards this year.  A combination of great play by the BoSox, the injury bug, inopportune cold streaks and inability to put batters away with 2 outs resulted in an early exit

Seasick Sailor
Seasick Sailor

Thanks for the memories:

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

am i the only one having trouble understanding wtf this means?

henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

Posted
Posted

a story on my scoretracker said there are ~8 teams inquiring about harper, and some are talking short term deal.  it named the 4 everyone knows about, then mentioned 6-7 other teams that they reached out to for comment.  the astros were one of those teams.  this means nothing, but it could signal what many here are predicting - that a team could sneak in and work a shorter term deal.

it's already feb 4th.  we're getting really close to pitchers and catchers and so many of these guys are unsigned.  they should just form their own 31st team.

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APMP

APMP 688

Posted
Posted
a story on my scoretracker said there are ~8 teams inquiring about harper, and some are talking short term deal.  it named the 4 everyone knows about, then mentioned 6-7 other teams that they reached out to for comment.  the astros were one of those teams.  this means nothing, but it could signal what many here are predicting - that a team could sneak in and work a shorter term deal.

it's already feb 4th.  we're getting really close to pitchers and catchers and so many of these guys are unsigned.  they should just form their own 31st team.

Is there anything in the CBA preventing FAs from having their own televised spring training games/skills competitions? That'd be fun.

 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19209

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Somebody already mentioned collusion, but we're heading straight towards a strike in a couple of years.

If Donald Fehr were still leading the union I might agree.  Tony Phillips seems like he'll fold like a cheap suit if the owners agree to replace Korbel with Cristal for clubhouse celebration purposes.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, kevwun said:

He can be replaced.  The players' mood is going to be pretty ugly with what is happening with free agency.

in an interview i saw, verlander blamed slow free agency on so many teams purposely being non-competitive (basically that the astros/cubs rebuild model doesn't allow for big signings).  i would imagine he's basically correct.  the super-teams don't need most of these guys, and the rebuilding half makes no sense, which leaves a very small sliver as potential landing spots. 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14754

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

in an interview i saw, verlander blamed slow free agency on so many teams purposely being non-competitive (basically that the astros/cubs rebuild model doesn't allow for big signings).  i would imagine he's basically correct.  the super-teams don't need most of these guys, and the rebuilding half makes no sense, which leaves a very small sliver as potential landing spots. 

It also has to do with the luxury tax. Boston is like $8M away from the 3rd tier repeat offender, which costs them 1.75 for every dollar they spend and their draft pick drops 10 spots. The Cubs and Astros, unfortunately for the players, found a way to game the current system, to open large championship windows. When half the teams aren't planning on competing and the half that are constrained by the luxury tax, you are going to have a glut of FAs that want their huge contracts and no teams willing to offer them. It's a market adjustment based on the horrible contracts given to players in their 30s and enhanced PED testing which is causing players to no longer hit their peak from 27-33.

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MAROON

MAROON 445

Posted
Posted

agree with a lot of what has been said.  The Moneyball era has produced a lot of really smart GM's who cannot justify the crazy long-term deals for aging players.  BUT, I'm still certain that a couple of the GM's will panic here shortly and start throwing money around like a drunken sailor.  Pretty sure Lunhow will not be one of them because his models show they will win this division easily.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19209

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MAROON said:

agree with a lot of what has been said.  The Moneyball era has produced a lot of really smart GM's who cannot justify the crazy long-term deals for aging players.  BUT, I'm still certain that a couple of the GM's will panic here shortly and start throwing money around like a drunken sailor.  Pretty sure Lunhow will not be one of them because his models show they will win this division easily.

I think we get pushed by LAA a little harder than most people think.  We should still win the division but I expect it to be some where between the 2017 domination and last year's bit closer than anyone would have liked scenario.  LAA has some bats and pitching (especially injuries) have always been there problem.  You have to think at some point they won't have a year where their entire starting rotation is in triage by May.

Also, I'm worried that our bats are going to be more of the 2018 variety or even less.  Certainly not expecting another record-breaking offensive output like 2017.

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kevwun

kevwun 15811

Posted
Posted (edited)

Altuve will be healthy and it's not really possible for Correa to have a worse season offensively than last year short of him losing an appendage.  They also added a good bat in Brantley.  It's very likely that the offense will be quite a bit better than last season without even adding the possibility that they could also get decent production out of Tucker or another minor leaguer.

Edited by kevwun
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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14754

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Scraps said:

I also think the offense will be lights out.....at least 1-6.  

Not sure our 7-9 will be that great, but hopefully we don't need them to be.  

Chirinos will be a upgrade over what we got from McCann, Stassi, and Maldonado. If White can maintain he production, then he upgrades the DH from Gattis. Not sure what to expect from Reddick, just bat him last, to turn it over to the top of the order.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Also, I'm worried that our bats are going to be more of the 2018 variety or even less.  Certainly not expecting another record-breaking offensive output like 2017.

disagree in a pretty huge way.  i think many people overlooked just how shitty altuve/correa/springer were for a big chunk of the season (not to mention reddick, marwin, mccann, others).  this was all because alex bregman basically was mike trout for 3 months (and tyler white carried us for a few weeks as well), and because our pitching was nasty.

if those guys are injury prone or just not very good anymore, then sure.  but if they're healthy and as good as everyone thinks they are, we're gonna mash.  by june, adding brantley may seem unfair.  i don't want to get into how good we'll look offensively if tucker comes around...

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

disagree in a pretty huge way.  i think many people overlooked just how shitty altuve/correa/springer were for a big chunk of the season (not to mention reddick, marwin, mccann, others).  this was all because alex bregman basically was mike trout for 3 months (and tyler white carried us for a few weeks as well), and because our pitching was nasty.

if those guys are injury prone or just not very good anymore, then sure.  but if they're healthy and as good as everyone thinks they are, we're gonna mash.  by june, adding brantley may seem unfair.  i don't want to get into how good we'll look offensively if tucker comes around...

Agree with this. There was something like a 2.5-month stretch last year during which Altuve/Springer/Correa weren't in the lineup at the same time for a single game. And Correa and Altuve were clearly playing through injuries when they did come back. 

Brantley is a really good hitter. I think White is probably a better hitter than Gattis. Correa will almost certainly be much better this year. And then you have Tucker, who could provide a boost at some point. 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14754

Posted
Posted

Yes, 2018 was an offensive shit show because of the injuries to Springer, Altuve, Correa, and Gurriel. When 3 of your big 4 are limping around for the majority of the season, the offense is going to look bad. At to it, the totally predictable returns to mean from McCann, Marwin, Gattis, and Reddick.

If everyone is healthy

Springer

Altuve

Bregman

Correra

Brantley

Gurriel

Chirinos

White

Reddick

will score plenty of runs.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Yes, 2018 was an offensive shit show because of the injuries to Springer, Altuve, Correa, and Gurriel. When 3 of your big 4 are limping around for the majority of the season, the offense is going to look bad. At to it, the totally predictable returns to mean from McCann, Marwin, Gattis, and Reddick.

If everyone is healthy

Springer

Altuve

Bregman

Correra

Brantley

Gurriel

Chirinos

White

Reddick

will score plenty of runs.

i know we got into this last year when ctj came on the thread to remind us how shitty yuli had been for a corner infielder - basically providing zero pop (injury related?) for a 1b, which is unacceptable (even when the rest of your infield is the best in mlb) - but having yuli hit 7th, instead of 4/5 is a huge difference.

still not sure where the best spot is for brantley.  i think you're correct that they hit him 5th, but his contact rate just seems like a 2-hole guy.  of course you could say that about bregs or altuve as well.  i guess that's what happens when you have a non-traditional leadoff guy.

hoping tucker pushes reddick out of the lineup, and possibly hits 9th.

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ckhorn

ckhorn 208

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

i know we got into this last year when ctj came on the thread to remind us how shitty yuli had been for a corner infielder - basically providing zero pop (injury related?) for a 1b, which is unacceptable (even when the rest of your infield is the best in mlb) - but having yuli hit 7th, instead of 4/5 is a huge difference.

still not sure where the best spot is for brantley.  i think you're correct that they hit him 5th, but his contact rate just seems like a 2-hole guy.  of course you could say that about bregs or altuve as well.  i guess that's what happens when you have a non-traditional leadoff guy.

hoping tucker pushes reddick out of the lineup, and possibly hits 9th.

There's more upside to Brantley to DH, with Tucker playing and Reddick hitting 9th. Let's role with this line-up for four or five weeks. This should help in keeping Brantley healthy.

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mez2 said:

Am I the only one who still hates Tyler white as our projected DH?

It's not exciting, but I don't mind it. He hit .276/.354/.533 last year in 66 games, and he was productive in 22 games in '17. He's hit 15 HR in those 88 games. 

If he does anything resembling that, it'll be a massive upgrade over Gattis. 

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formermav43

formermav43 4606

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Scraps said:
1 hour ago, Mez2 said:
Am I the only one who still hates Tyler white as our projected DH?

Absolutely not. What he did last season was in 210 abs. He can't sustain that over 500 abs. He's shitty and last year was an outlier

Based on his AAA numbers and production in his MLB stints the last 2 years, it looks as likely that 2016 was the outlier. Guess we’ll see.

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Scraps said:
10 hours ago, Mez2 said:
Am I the only one who still hates Tyler white as our projected DH?

Absolutely not. What he did last season was in 210 abs. He can't sustain that over 500 abs. He's shitty and last year was an outlier

He isn't likely to do what he did last year (144 wRC+) - if he did, he'd be an all-star. 

But most projections have him to be in the vicinity of .250/.330/.440 with 20-ish HR. Not great, but not bad, and better than Gattis.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

Posted
Posted

re:white - are we heading towards a potential platoon with reddick and white?

if tucker is serviceable and springer/brantley complete the outfield, then it essentially leaves reddick and white to split abs in of/dh shuffling with brantley, and possibly a little with yuli.  the good news is that all those guys will be batting 6 thru 9.  we really just need tucker to mash again in the spring and continue to improve in the majors.  bregman started out super slow too - probably worse than tucker.

i like that we have flexibility - and diaz helps with that, as may yuli.  after all the injuries last season, i can see hinch getting creative with the dh - letting tuve and correa get that slot proactively for a "day off" in the field.

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ChickenSandwich

ChickenSandwich 9843

Posted
Posted (edited)

https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/02/06/mlb-players-union-discuss-rule-changes

Last month, Major League Baseball made a proposal to the players union suggesting a rule that required pitchers to face a minimum of three batters, reports The Athletic.

Also proposed was using a universal designated hitter.

Even if no deal is reached, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred has the power to make rule changes. including the addition of a 20-second pitch clock and All-Star Game changes that would put a runner at second if the game is tied after the 10th inning.

According to the report, other proposals including expansion of rosters to 26 players, a lowering of the mound study, and bringing back the major league contract for two-sport athletes as an incentive to choose baseball.

The Associated Press has already reported that Major League Baseball has proposed a 15-day disabled list and increasing the time optioned players usually must spend in the minor leagues,

 

 

possible changes....the universal DH should be a no brain-er, it's time to stop playing two different sports

Edited by ChickenSandwich
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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19209

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

re:white - are we heading towards a potential platoon with reddick and white?

if tucker is serviceable and springer/brantley complete the outfield, then it essentially leaves reddick and white to split abs in of/dh shuffling with brantley, and possibly a little with yuli.  the good news is that all those guys will be batting 6 thru 9.  we really just need tucker to mash again in the spring and continue to improve in the majors.  bregman started out super slow too - probably worse than tucker.

i like that we have flexibility - and diaz helps with that, as may yuli.  after all the injuries last season, i can see hinch getting creative with the dh - letting tuve and correa get that slot proactively for a "day off" in the field.

If White gets playing time in the OF,  our man mez is really going to lose his shit.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

If White gets playing time in the OF,  our man mez is really going to lose his shit.

that wasn't what i meant.  that's why i said shuffling.  i think we could see a situation where white could dh or play first, and reddick could play rf, but there's a decent chance that eventually they're not both in the lineup together because of tucker.

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BornOrange

BornOrange 1441

Posted
Posted

I really like the proposal to expand the roster. With all the specialization, rosters need to be at 26 or 27 players.

Also, that would be a pro-active move for the owners to help placate the players union. There are a limited few who are affected by the lack of the huge multi-year contracts that are disappearing, but there are a lot of rank and file union members who would love to see an extra roster spot or two on each team.

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