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2018-2019 Astros Offseason Thread


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Blurb from Olney this morning...Keuchel looking for 6 or 7 years and more than $150 mm...yeah, he's not getting that. 

Spoiler

• Two of the biggest names who remain unsigned are left-hander Dallas Keuchel and super utilityman Marwin Gonzalez. Both are represented by agent Scott Boras. Early in the offseason, the contract parameters suggested to teams were a deal for six or seven years on Keuchel, at $25-30 million annually, and for Gonzalez, something in the range of $60 million -- or more than super utility guy Ben Zobrist got from the Cubs a few years ago ($56 million over four years).

 

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1 hour ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Blurb from Olney this morning...Keuchel looking for 6 or 7 years and more than $150 mm...yeah, he's not getting that. 

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• Two of the biggest names who remain unsigned are left-hander Dallas Keuchel and super utilityman Marwin Gonzalez. Both are represented by agent Scott Boras. Early in the offseason, the contract parameters suggested to teams were a deal for six or seven years on Keuchel, at $25-30 million annually, and for Gonzalez, something in the range of $60 million -- or more than super utility guy Ben Zobrist got from the Cubs a few years ago ($56 million over four years).

 

Holy shit, $25-30 million for 6 years for a 31-year-old whose ERA has only been under 3.70 once in the last three years?

He might get that if the Cleveland Browns front office takes over the Cleveland Indians.  

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Just curious, but is there any real traction on Harper to the Stros? I ask because last summer when we were floating a trade for him, I kept wondering how he would fit in the clubhouse. He seems a super-brat to me. My other real concern is whose back is Kemp going to jump on without Gattis or McCann around any longer.

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10 hours ago, ausjala said:

Just curious, but is there any real traction on Harper to the Stros? I ask because last summer when we were floating a trade for him, I kept wondering how he would fit in the clubhouse. He seems a super-brat to me. My other real concern is whose back is Kemp going to jump on without Gattis or McCann around any longer.

Doubtful. Only way I could see it is if Harper doesn't get an offer he likes in the next few weeks and ends up taking a 1-year deal (or some short deal with early opt-out) and tries again next winter. I could see the Astros giving him $35-40 mm for 2019, given that Verlander and Cole are in the final years of their deals. But again, all that is really unlikely. 

I think he'd fit in fine. Harper rubbed people the wrong way when he first came up, but a lot of that was just all the hype around him. He was also 19 years old. His personality doesn't seem problematic. 

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4 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

 

Interesting projections. I'd be tempted to take the over on Correa (.262/.349/.457) and Springer (.259/.345/.444), but those are reasonable forecasts.

Has Tucker at .266/.328/.479, 23 HR and 3 WAR in 131 games. That would be strong. 

Also - a .257/.336/.442, 20-HR season from Tyler White would be a pretty big upgrade over Gattis in '18 (.226/.284/.452). I'd take it. 

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1 hour ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Doubtful. Only way I could see it is if Harper doesn't get an offer he likes in the next few weeks and ends up taking a 1-year deal (or some short deal with early opt-out) and tries again next winter. I could see the Astros giving him $35-40 mm for 2019, given that Verlander and Cole are in the final years of their deals. But again, all that is really unlikely. 

I think he'd fit in fine. Harper rubbed people the wrong way when he first came up, but a lot of that was just all the hype around him. He was also 19 years old. His personality doesn't seem problematic. 

yep.  i think machado has more in the "red flag" column, as far as mental makeup/clubhouse issues that would scare me off if i was a front office guy worried about my team chemistry.

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16 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Interesting projections. I'd be tempted to take the over on Correa (.262/.349/.457) and Springer (.259/.345/.444), but those are reasonable forecasts.

Has Tucker at .266/.328/.479, 23 HR and 3 WAR in 131 games. That would be strong. 

Also - a .257/.336/.442, 20-HR season from Tyler White would be a pretty big upgrade over Gattis in '18 (.226/.284/.452). I'd take it. 

I'll be very happy if we get that production from Tucker and White. 

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yesterday verlander made his 2nd public (negative) comment about the current state of free agency.  with he (and cole) entering fa after the season, i wonder if his outlook has changed on how he wants to handle it.  i would think we'll try to work something out during the season with both of them (assuming we want them to hang around a while longer). 

maybe we could use this whole mess to our benefit.

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finally subscribed to the athletic, here's today from Kaplan:

Seemingly each time he addresses reporters these days, Astros president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow reiterates in some way, shape or form the vision he pitched team owner Jim Crane way back in 2011.

Luhnow’s teardown and rebuild wasn’t undertaken to open only a brief window of contention. The architect of the franchise’s only World Series winner in 2017 always sought to create an organization competitive year after year, which is why you’ve seen the Astros generally shy away from long-term free-agent contracts and hold back a vast majority of their best prospects from trades in recent years.

The result of this model geared toward prolonging their window will be on display on the back fields of their Florida complex in West Palm Beach beginning this week. Perhaps more than any of the Astros’ previous spring trainings, the collection of players participating in the 2019 version of their major league camp will be a blend of established stars and the next wave of potential cornerstones.

Aces in contract years, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole will share a clubhouse with touted prospects Forrest Whitley, Corbin Martin and J.B. Bukauskas. Faces of the franchise Alex Bregman and José Altuve will hit in the same lineup as possible future middle-of-the-order bats Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez.

The confluence of marquee players in their primes and youngsters on the way will give this Astros’ spring training a unique feel. It will also offer a reminder of the players the franchise will rely on to maintain competitiveness as its stars move closer to free agency. That aspect of the business hit the Astros’ roster hard this past offseason, but they have a chance to withstand the losses of their departed free agents because of the constant churn of their farm system.

Offseason departures

UTIL Marwin González
LHP Dallas Keuchel
RHP Charlie Morton
C Martín Maldonado
C Brian McCann
LHP Tony Sipp
DH Evan Gattis

Offseason additions

LF/DH Michael Brantley
LHP Wade Miley
C Robinson Chirinos
IF Aledmys Díaz

Minor leaguers who could make an impact in 2019

OF Kyle Tucker
RHP Corbin Martin
RHP Forrest Whitley
RHP J.B. Bukauskas
LF/1B/DH Yordan Alvarez

Because of a rotation headlined by Verlander and Cole and a lineup fueled by Bregman, Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa and Michael Brantley, Houston is a heavy frontrunner to win the AL West and should again challenge for the best record in baseball.

But like every team, spring training didn’t arrive without question marks. Manager A.J. Hinch’s top priority is to leave Florida on March 24 with a healthy team. But in the intervening days and weeks, the Astros’ brain trust of Luhnow and Hinch will also have to make several important decisions pertaining to the roster.

The story that follows highlights those question marks and the looming decisions facing the Astros. But before we delve in, I just wanted to dedicate a few words to thank you, the reader, for a fantastic first year of The AthleticHouston.

Tuesday, Feb. 12, marks the one-year anniversary of our Houston launch, and whether you subscribed on launch day or just last week, I hope you feel like you’ve learned something from every in-depth feature story or analysis piece we’ve produced. It’s been such a gratifying experience to watch this community grow in the last 12 months, and to see our Houston staff grow along with it.

The Athletic’s Astros coverage will only improve in Year 2 as we continue to refine the best ways to tell the story of the season. I plan to continue to blend medium- and long-form stories about Astros players, coaches and front office personnel with analysis about the latest signing or call-up or a projection of the next opening day or playoff roster. Many thanks to all who have engaged in conversation in the last 12 months via the comments section or in one of my live Q&A’s or mailbags.

And if you have yet to subscribe, now is the perfect time. To coincide with the Houston site’s birthday, The Athletic is running a special 40 percent off deal for new subscribers.

Without further ado, let’s kick off spring training by examining the biggest questions the Astros face before opening day.

Who will fill out the opening day rotation?

As long as Dallas Keuchel remains unsigned, speculation about the 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner and the Astros reuniting will persist. But as the roster stands on the eve of spring training, Houston is poised to enter camp with three legitimate candidates to fill out the final spot in the rotation behind Verlander, Cole, Collin McHugh and Miley.

The stage is set for Josh James versus Framber Valdez versus Brad Peacock.

James might be the frontrunner because of his overpowering fastball, which regularly touches the upper 90s on the radar gun. He complements it with an effective changeup and a slider, the development of which will be key to his long-term success. This will be his first major league camp. This time last year, he wasn’t even on the major league radar.

Valdez induces groundballs with his intriguing fastball-curveball combo but needs to develop his changeup. Peacock must rediscover the consistency of his sweeping slider, which fueled his breakout in 2017.

This competition could easily go down to the final days before opening day. Of the three, Valdez is the only one vulnerable to beginning the season in Triple A if he doesn’t win the rotation spot. The Astros are set to begin the season with a solid amount of depth in the upper minors either way. It’s plausible that Martin, Whitley, Rogelio Armenteros and Brady Rodgers could comprise four-fifths of Triple-A Round Rock’s rotation to start the year.

Where will Michael Brantley slot into the batting order?

Hinch might not tip his hand in spring training, when all of the regulars rarely play in the same lineup. He also might not yet truly know in which order he will line up his top five of  Springer, Altuve, Bregman, Correa and Brantley.

With the exception of Game 5 of last year’s ALCS, when he batted Bregman first in an effort to force the Red Sox to pitch to him, Hinch has stuck with Springer as his leadoff man since May 2016. That isn’t expected to change.

Altuve and Bregman could bat in either order as the Nos. 2 and 3 hitters, and neither should bat lower than third because it would mean fewer at-bats for one of the game’s best hitters. The big question, then, is whether Correa or Brantley should bat fourth? The optimal order depends somewhat on which version of Correa the Astros get this season.

He fell from his customary fourth spot all the way to seventh in the batting order last postseason but will come to spring training with a clean slate and a clean bill of health. As a sign Correa has ironed out the mechanical flaws that plagued him in the second half of last season, Hinch said he will be looking for him to show “more freedom in his swing” in spring training. Correa has already started working with new hitting coach Alex Cintrón to refine his mechanics.

“He’s got to get into his legs a little bit and his posture,” Hinch said. “You’ve got to get in a good position to hit before you are ready to hit. He’s been working really hard. … He’s very aware of the freedom that he needs health-wise and then a couple tweaks here and there mechanically that are going to free him up to produce at the level that everybody expects.”

There’s a case to be made that the left-handed hitting Brantley should bat fourth, regardless of Correa’s performance, to split up the string of consecutive righties. But if Correa produces like he has shown he can in the past, the Astros will want him to get as many at-bats as possible.

Yuli Gurriel, Tyler White, Josh Reddick and whichever of Chirinos and Max Stassi catches on a given day could make up the bottom four, potentially in that order. If Tony Kemp makes the team, he could bat ninth and play left field on the days Brantley starts at DH.

Is Aledmys Díaz a viable super utility player?

The Astros seemed to operate in the offseason under the assumption the newly acquired Díaz could succeed González as their super utility player. But it’s still an open question as to whether Díaz can even play left field and first base.

If their roster is healthy, Díaz won’t be needed in the regular season to play much shortstop, his natural position, or third base, his secondary position. Nor should he see all that much time at second base. That means he will need to be at least passable in left field and first base. As a major leaguer, he’s logged a total of nine innings in left and none at first.

Aledmys Díaz batted .263/.303/.453 last season for Toronto, where he played only shortstop and third base. (John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports)

Díaz has always been known more for his bat than his glove; even at his natural position he’s graded out in his career as a below-average defender. It’s not a foregone conclusion he will take to his new positions so seamlessly. Spring training will be an important test for Díaz, who will play all over the field in Grapefruit League games.

“You’ll see Díaz play a little bit of first, a little bit of left, a little bit of second, third and short,” Hinch said of his plan for spring training. “He was primarily a shortstop last year, but I’ll try to introduce a few things to him.”

Will Chris Devenski bounce back?

Devenski’s downfall was one of the more mystifying developments of the Astros’ 2018 season. He was a borderline All-Star in the first half only to struggle in the second half to the point where he wasn’t even a legitimate contender for a spot on the ALDS or ALCS rosters.

Flaws in his delivery with regards to his lower half were the root of the problem, and Devenski has been working in the offseason to refine his mechanics. His Grapefruit League outings should provide some indication as to whether he’s corrected the issue, which diminished the quality of his pitches.

A return to form by Devenski would change the complexion of the Astros’ bullpen. Before his second-half struggles last year, the deceptive righty was Hinch’s go-to weapon against the opposition’s best left-handed hitters.

Will the Astros have a lefty in their bullpen?

Devenski’s performance in spring training could have a great impact on how the Astros configure their bullpen. Clear improvement by him would lessen their need to carry a left-hander in their bullpen. More struggles would seemingly make it a requirement.

Valdez and Cionel Perez are the Astros’ internal candidates to be that lefty in the ‘pen, with Perez the more natural fit because of Valdez’s value as a starter. But there’s also a case to be made the Astros should sign a free agent to fill the lefty specialist role. As more free agents begin to settle for non-guaranteed minor league deals, perhaps the Astros will add a non-roster invitee to the competition.

Cionel Perez debuted for the Astros last July but made only eight appearances in the majors in 2018. (Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)

Luhnow downplays the significance of reliever handedness, and there’s little doubt right-hander Ryan Pressly, with his filthy curveball, is the Astros’ best option against the opposition’s best left-handed hitters. Will Harris’s cutter-curveball combo also plays against lefties.

But the Astros could still benefit from having an actual lefty among their relief corps, and it will be interesting to see if their decision-makers feel the same way at the end of spring training.

Who will be the victim of the roster crunch?

Barring a spring training injury serious enough to threaten a position player’s availability for March 28, it’s difficult to envision an Astros opening day roster that includes both Kemp and Jake Marisnick.

Unlike Kemp, Marisnick has not exhausted his minor league options, meaning he could theoretically begin the season in Triple A. However, 40 days into the season Marisnick will reach five years of major league service time, a benchmark that affords players the right to decline minor league assignments.

Marisnick’s elite defensive ability could make him attractive via trade to another team seeking a fourth outfielder. He will make $2.215 million this season and is under control through the 2020 season. However, he’s also the Astros’ best defensive outfielder and their best reserve option in center behind Springer.

Kemp, who has yet to reach arbitration eligibility, has the superior bat. But his path to playing time became less clear with the Astros’ signing of Brantley, another left-handed hitter who profiles best in left field. Kemp’s best avenue to a significant number of at-bats would be Brantley splitting DH duties with White.

White is also out of options, further limiting the Astros’ roster flexibility. It’s uncertain if they will carry both Kemp and Marisnick through spring training or be proactive with a move to alleviate the roster crunch weeks before camp breaks.

“It’s a fine balance because if you wait too long you may not be able to get anything for them if they’re not going to make the team. And you certainly don’t want to just hand them to the rest of the industry because we’ve got some really good players that are out of options,” Luhnow said of the looming decisions pertaining to the Astros’ out-of-options players. “But we want these guys to have a chance to win spots on the team. We’ll see how it happens. With those guys it’s particularly challenging because you have to discuss it every day and you don’t want to read too much into a spring training performance. We know what these guys are capable of doing. But it is going to be a topic of conversation between A.J. and I probably on a daily basis.”

Will the Astros add any more players?

This question could be asked of every team, given how many free agents remain available. And at this point, it’s more likely the Astros will sign a minor league free agent and invite him to major league spring training than they sign another major league free agent.

But with veteran sidearmer Joe Smith out for roughly the first half of the season as he rehabs his Achilles, the Astros could use another proven reliever to fill innings.

Will anyone unexpected emerge?

At this time last year, neither James nor Valdez were on anyone’s radars as a potential 2018 contributor. Going into 2017, Peacock was thought of as a roster longshot. There are always key players who seem to come out of nowhere.

Spring training can offer hints, especially on the minor league side. Minor league spring training begins March 3 (March 7 for position players) and runs through March 29.

A select group of about two dozen minor leaguers will report a couple weeks early, on Feb. 21, as part of an annual spring training mini-camp. From that mini-camp, the Astros take players to fill innings and at-bats at the end of their Grapefruit League games after the starters have exited. Infielder/outfielders Seth Beer, J.J. Matijevic and pitchers Tyler Ivey, Peter Solomon and Cristian Javier are among the players set to participate. [/spoiler}

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yesterday verlander made his 2nd public (negative) comment about the current state of free agency.  with he (and cole) entering fa after the season, i wonder if his outlook has changed on how he wants to handle it.  i would think we'll try to work something out during the season with both of them (assuming we want them to hang around a while longer). 

maybe we could use this whole mess to our benefit.

 

 

JV may be regretting chopping off his 2020 option year as part of agreeing to be traded in 2017.

 

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2 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

JV?  I'm guessing 2/45 or so.

Cole?  5/75?

I don't think JV will take that, but he probably should. I think that's the general area where his next salary will fall. The number for Cole seems a bit light. He'll probably get closer to $100 million for 5 years, but I'd bet Luhnow would probably try to cap it at 4 years, say $80 million. Don't think he'll take that right now either.

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For Verlander, put down a blank check and tell him to fill it in with whatever he wants.  He was the key piece to put us over the top for a WS championship.

For Cole, tell him to win a ring then put a blank check in front of him and tell him to fill it in with whatever he wants.

Well not quite like that, but something close...

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I am a milestone guy and love that shit so I want Verlander to be in an Astros uniform when he gets his 3000th K.  If he does what he did last year then he would be 4 K's short.  I think he will be somewhere in the 260-270 range than the 290 range again though.  

So he is 294 K's from 3000.  

One more year! One more year! One more year! 

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27 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Alvarez seems low and having James, who will likely accrue >2 WAR this season if he stays healthy, at #98 is absurd.  

With Alvarez, it seems to be the same thing - he's limited to DH/1B, and those guys rarely rank highly on these lists. They do seem to think he'll hit. 

With James - concerns over his command, and the list is more about long-term/future value than how likely they are to be contributors in 2019, though he does seem to be more of a safe bet to produce some value than a lot of guys in front of him. 

Here's hoping that they both outperform the ranking.  

Spoiler
98. Joshua James, RHP, HOU
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 55/55 55/55 40/45 94-99 / 102

James’ velocity has climbed in each of the last few years and he carved up Triple-A before getting a big league look late last season. He may end up in relief, or in a 120-inning, Lance McCullers kind of role.

James’ fastball velocity has climbed each of the last three years and is now in the upper-90s. He struck out 171 hitters in 114 innings at Triple-A Fresno before the Astros brought him to the big leagues for six appearances (some out of the bullpen, some as a starter), and he struck out more than a batter per inning there, as well.

James’ secondaries can sometimes be easy to identify out of his hand, but purely based on movement, they’re both plus. His command may limit him to a relief role, or at least a starting role that carries fewer innings than is typical, but he has high-leverage big league stuff, and was perhaps 2018’s biggest prospect surprise.

 

125. Yordan Alvarez, DH, HOU
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 65/65 30/55 50/45 40/50 45/45

A 6-foot-5 behemoth with all-fields power, Alvarez’s defensive limitations (he may just be a DH) will likely cap his overall value even if he ends up with a middle-of-the-order bat.

The Dodgers signed Alvarez for $2 million just before the clock struck midnight on the 2015-2016 International Free Agent signing period, then traded him to Houston for Josh Fields a few weeks later, before Alvarez had even played a pro game. Houston took things slow for the first year 10 months, and left Alvarez in the DSL in 2016 and in Extended Spring Training to start 2017, but he has moved very quickly since then, climbing to a new minor league level every half season. And he has performed. Alvarez is a career .301/.381/.507 hitter in the minors, has always been young relative to his level, and reached Triple-A last year shortly after he turned 21. He has big, all-fields raw power, and balls he mis-hits will often still find their way to the warning track. While Alvarez has good natural timing in the box and isn’t often fooled by breaking stuff, he does have limited bat control and we anticipate his batting averages will be lower in majors than they have been thus far.

Athletic for his size, Alvarez has mostly played left field as a pro and he’s a 40 runner underway, but he appeared to stiffen last year and most teams have him projected to first base or DH. That will limit his overall value and makes his lack of bat control a little scary, but we still think Alvarez will become an average regular, and possibly get an opportunity quite soon.

 

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6 minutes ago, kevwun said:

If Alvarez keeps hitting, who gives a fuck if he has to DH?

Right - if he can fill the DH spot with above-average production, that's a win for the club. 

Just saying that prospect lists are always going to favor guys that have better all-around profiles/tools. (With the exception of Vlad Jr, who appears to have a generational bat.)

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35 minutes ago, kevwun said:

If Alvarez keeps hitting, who gives a fuck if he has to DH?  Guys who can hit for power and average don't grow on trees.

yep.  it's not like we have extra dh's lying around, and we're not in the nl, so i don't see the issue (although i get why he's not higher on these lists, i just don't care).

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I don't really get it in his case.  He's not a college guy with a beer belly who is already 25.  He has hit at every level while being young for each classification.  Alvarez is a guy who could end up being a very good hitter who can also hit 25 or 30 homers.  How many DH's are there like that right now?

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27 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

adding a change-up almost makes me think he's gonna be in the rotation.  not sure how i feel about that.

He was a better SP than McHugh in 2017 and McHugh had his slider that season.  His fastball is much better than McHugh's but being limited to a fastball/slider mix is tough as a SP and leaves you particularly vulnerable to LHB.  A good change would be the perfect medicine.  I note that he did throw a change earlier in his career but it wasn't very good so he gave it up.  

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7 hours ago, Fozzz said:

Interesting.  Given the nature of his pitch mix I thought adding a changeup would serve him well, especially if he wants to start.

 

 

I approve. So many of the veteran pitchers towards the end of their careers find solace in developing a change up. And if you’re going to learn how to throw and use a changeup, Trevor Hoffman is the guy to learn from.

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FG prospect guy:

12:06

Jackson: Yordan Alvarez didn’t rank after being high in your mid season list. What sorcery did Keith Law whisper in Eric’s ear? But for real, that’s a huge swing. What do you see now that you didn’t eight months ago.

 
12:08

Eric A Longenhagen: We re-shuffled last year’s final update a bit and sent it around to teams for feedback and they almost all said to move him down, that they had him in as a DH-only

 

Eric A Longenhagen: and we actually got feedback that was like, “move down Alonso, Calhoun, Alvarez, etc UNLESS the universal DH is implemented.”

12:24

Jim Bob Cooter: So JB Bukauskas is ranked nearly 40 spots lower than Corbin Martin despite having better stuff (literally) across the board and the same command grade? I don’t get it

 
12:24

Eric A Longenhagen: How confident are you that Buk’s stuff holds with a starter’s workload the way Martin’s does? His stuff was down late during his junior year at UNC, his delivery is more violent. It’s a confidence issue, not stuff.

 

12:40

Tom Brady Anderson: why is Eloy down at 8, why did Whitley jump to 4?

 
12:40

Kiley McDaniel: moving towards more RHH DH and moving more towards legit ace

 

1:27

JD: So Yordan Alvarez’s defense knocks him way down the list, but what’s his bat look like to you? More likely to be a great DH, a good one, or an adequate one?

 
1:27

Eric A Longenhagen: On this DH valuation stuff: look at Nellie. That’s a 50 or 55. What are the chances Yordan is that good? That’s gotta be the high end of what he can do, Nellie is amazing. 

 
1:28

Eric A Longenhagen: Again, FV is mapped to WAR, so to say Yordan is a 6 he’s gotta be a 3+ annual WAR guy on average for his first six seasons, and I just don’t think he’s that guy

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