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Posted (edited)

And that’s how you do it. 

Very classy goodbye  

Hate to lose him, but it’s not personal. It’s just business. 

Best of luck to Marwin.

His WS Game 2 home run in the 9th inning was the catalyst that made our World Series Championship possible. 

 

Edited by Victor Lazlo
  • Like 2
Posted

7-2 assist to gun down Bird
Game 2 HR off Jansen
Single through Darvish’s 5 hole
Probably my top 3 Marwin moments

9cfe1067385e54d5ab7cc0479129c5b3.gif

e699b13adf8a51e21c8b39a0c9047df0.gif

I have the gif on my phone of him blowing the smoke from his pistol after gunning down Bird but appears to be too large to upload to tapa

Posted

Kaplan on the Astros FAs
A lot of good stuff here but still more questions than answers

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Posted (edited)

That Kaplan article is opening our minds to quite a turn-over in the roster.   This will be an extremely interesting offseason and hopefully Luhnow/Crane aren't done cashing World Series merchandise checks.  I feel they expected this team to go back to back, which could lead to an overhauled roster ready to challenge Boston.

Edited by Pablo
Posted
  On 10/24/2018 at 3:36 AM, tx 3 putt said:

 

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Huh. He's a useful player and seems like a guy his teammates genuinely like. And yeah, he was obviously a major contributor throughout the club's ascension. 

I'd love to have him as a utility guy, but I am not sad that he won't be in the lineup every day, or starting the most important games in LF. 

He'll do well in FA. 

Posted

That Kaplan article makes me think they might QO Keuchel, Morton, and Gonzalez and hope they all decline (although they probably wouldn’t mind if Morton accepted).  3 extra draft picks plus no more intl signing penalty means they could use 2019 as a year to create a wave of potential core players, or at least restock the farm with deadline trade chips.

They may end up just adding a catcher and a starting pitcher and otherwise rolling with what they have.  Still likely a 95 win team and they can always go get what they need at the deadline.

 

CF Springer

3B Bregman

2B Altuve

SS Correa

C TBD

1B Gurriel

LF Tucker

DH White

RF Reddick

bench: Kemp, Stassi, Marisnick

rotation: Verlander, Cole, TBD, McHugh, James

bullpen: F Valdez, Peacock, Devenski, Harris, Smith, Rondon, Pressly, Osuna

Posted
  On 10/24/2018 at 1:51 PM, texashorne said:

His grand slam against the Rangers was awesome in 2017.. 

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I know his WS homer was his most important, and, as Mez said, probably the most important in Astros history, but that Grand Slam against the Rangers was my favorite Marwin moment, with his outfield assist on Bird being a close second. 

Posted
  On 10/19/2018 at 4:04 PM, Jshep34 said:

Hopefully we can make a trip to wpb next year. Next year will be Correa make or break year. Hate to hear news about LMJ. Think Ted could hold down LF if given time. Im not sold on Goldy coming here as a 1 year rental. 

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It wouldn't be a 1-year rental. 

Posted
  On 10/24/2018 at 2:10 PM, Snake Diggity said:

That Kaplan article makes me think they might QO Keuchel, Morton, and Gonzalez and hope they all decline (although they probably wouldn’t mind if Morton accepted).  3 extra draft picks plus no more intl signing penalty means they could use 2019 as a year to create a wave of potential core players, or at least restock the farm with deadline trade chips.

They may end up just adding a catcher and a starting pitcher and otherwise rolling with what they have.  Still likely a 95 win team and they can always go get what they need at the deadline.

 

CF Springer

3B Bregman

2B Altuve

SS Correa

C TBD

1B Gurriel

LF Tucker

DH White

RF Reddick

bench: Kemp, Stassi, Marisnick

rotation: Verlander, Cole, TBD, McHugh, James

bullpen: F Valdez, Peacock, Devenski, Harris, Smith, Rondon, Pressly, Osuna

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Gonna need some IF depth if Marwin is gone...

Posted (edited)

From a fielding/defense perspective, I wonder whether they’ll want Kemp to get back to playing some 2B and to work on other infield spots to help with the loss of versatility. 

Edited by Planet Houston
Posted
  On 10/24/2018 at 2:50 PM, LCHorn said:

Uh, why?

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because he sucks? he had a great, what 2-3 month, portion of the season? in fairness he did a lot to help us win and had some huge hits for us, but can you really count on him to be a full time DH? he went 3-13 in 8 games in the post season. and sorry but i can't forgive him for not swinging the bat as a called-upon pinch hitter at a pivotal moment in a playoff series. throw out his 2017 season (61 ABs) and use his 2016 and 2018 where he averaged 230 ABs.

his average stat line with a more sizable sample size:

.247 average, .320 OBP, .456SLG, and .776 OPS.  

sorry if i would expect a full time DH

 

  • Like 2
Posted
  On 10/24/2018 at 3:48 PM, Mez2 said:

because he sucks? he had a great, what 2-3 month, portion of the season? in fairness he did a lot to help us win and had some huge hits for us, but can you really count on him to be a full time DH? he went 3-13 in 8 games in the post season. and sorry but i can't forgive him for not swinging the bat as a called-upon pinch hitter at a pivotal moment in a playoff series. throw out his 2017 season (61 ABs) and use his 2016 and 2018 where he averaged 230 ABs.

his average stat line with a more sizable sample size:

.247 average, .320 OBP, .456SLG, and .776 OPS.  

sorry if i would expect a full time DH

 

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He is more or less Gattis with a tick less power but a tick more on-base ability. Probably a slight upgrade. 

Would love to see a trade for a guy like Justin Smoak, who wouldn't figure to cost much in terms of prospects but who can DH capably most nights (he hit righties very well).

Posted
  On 10/24/2018 at 3:48 PM, Mez2 said:

because he sucks? he had a great, what 2-3 month, portion of the season? in fairness he did a lot to help us win and had some huge hits for us, but can you really count on him to be a full time DH? he went 3-13 in 8 games in the post season. and sorry but i can't forgive him for not swinging the bat as a called-upon pinch hitter at a pivotal moment in a playoff series. throw out his 2017 season (61 ABs) and use his 2016 and 2018 where he averaged 230 ABs.

his average stat line with a more sizable sample size:

.247 average, .320 OBP, .456SLG, and .776 OPS.  

sorry if i would expect a full time DH

 

Expand  

Agree, we need to upgrade DH

Posted

we need a guy who's our dh.  not a guy we put at dh because he's the odd man out or we like someone slightly better at some position.  i really thought/hoped that would be gattis this year, but that didn't work out.  i'd rather it not be tyler white next year.  ideally it's a lefty (i don't hate the smoak idea).

i think we extend qo's to those 3 guys.  dk won't take it.  marwin won't get 17mm next year (obv) but i have to think he's looking for 3-4 years so he'll turn it down (unless he tells luhnow he wants to figure out a way to stay, which i don't see happening).  morty i'm not sure about.  does his family live in houston?  i can see him wanting to play another couple years or retire.  i don't see him weighing offers and playing the market, that doesn't seem like his personality.  would be great if he gave us a reasonable discount for having faith in him a couple years ago, but they may be wishful thinking.  either way, with the new rules, we don't get quite the return for those qualifying offers (someone less lazy or more informed can fill us in on what we get now).

as for our rotation, and seeing how baseball has changed, i'm wondering if mchugh isn't helping the team more in his 2018 bullpen role.  i'm also wondering what happens with a guy like peacock, who went from high rated prospect, to ok starter, to awesome reliever, to average reliever left off the postseason roster.  i think he has another couple years of team control, and could be an "initial out getter" or whatever we're calling it, if we choose to go that route.  he still has good stuff, he just needs to figure out where he left it.  sipp is expendable, go find a lefty.

in the current state of free agency (what we want to spend vs who's out there), i'd like to err on the side of not making any huge moves (unless they make goldschmidt happen).  so many big names move around every july these days, i'd kinda like to see what's what around then, and make a move that makes sense.  up until mid oct, our 3 relatively small july moves looked genius.

and regardless of how he looked vs boston, i like maldonado.  what we do at catcher will be interesting.  i would ask jv and cole to weigh in on that as well.

2019 is our last year with our current "window" of players, so it wouldn't surprise me to see our front office get aggressive to respond to "only" getting to the alcs.  it's a nice place to be.

  • Like 3
Posted (edited)
  On 10/24/2018 at 6:38 PM, henrygandorf said:

we need a guy who's our dh.  not a guy we put at dh because he's the odd man out or we like someone slightly better at some position.  i really thought/hoped that would be gattis this year, but that didn't work out.  i'd rather it not be tyler white next year.  ideally it's a lefty (i don't hate the smoak idea).

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I'm not sold on the idea of a full-time DH only.  Despite our flawed recollection, the DH slot was our most productive RBI spot in the lineup last year with 106 RBI (granted 75 of those came from the "full-time" DH, Gattis).  Smoak had 77 RBI in 147 games.  White had 42 RBI in 66 games.  

Say we did have a DH-only player that knocked in, oh I don't know, 130 RBI (Martinez), but didn't have a position or played the same position as the number three (Benintendi) and four (Betts) RBI guys.  What do you do when you play in the NL park in the World Series?

I liked the flexibility that we had with the DH in the playoffs this year and didn't think Gattis should have been on the roster.  Our production problems this year were not in the DH slot.  They were at SS and the corner outfield spots, especially LF.  Tucker figuring it out and Correa having a healthy season would make all of the difference and we wouldn't worry about the DH spot at all.  You could rotate White, Yuli, Kemp, and Tucker in the DH slot all year and combine to have a 1-2 WAR DH, I think.

Edited by Guadaloopy
  • Like 1
Posted (edited)

I would be leery of going in to the season relying on White to produce.  He is not a known quantity at this point because he's really only has one really good stretch.  If it was an aberration, it puts them in a bind for the first half of the season.

Edited by kevwun
Posted (edited)

Couldn't go back and edit, but if Tucker still isn't ready, it would really cause problems.  I don't think they should go in to the season with 2 unproven bats in the lineup.  This is their last year of the core guaranteed to be intact and I think they need to go all out for another title.  I think HG is right about how they will approach the off-season.

Edited by kevwun
Posted
  On 10/25/2018 at 12:17 AM, Guadaloopy said:

I'm not sold on the idea of a full-time DH only.  Despite our flawed recollection, the DH slot was our most productive RBI spot in the lineup last year with 106 RBI (granted 75 of those came from the "full-time" DH, Gattis).  Smoak had 77 RBI in 147 games.  White had 42 RBI in 66 games.  

Say we did have a DH-only player that knocked in, oh I don't know, 130 RBI (Martinez), but didn't have a position or played the same position as the number three (Benintendi) and four (Betts) RBI guys.  What do you do when you play in the NL park in the World Series?

I liked the flexibility that we had with the DH in the playoffs this year and didn't think Gattis should have been on the roster.  Our production problems this year were not in the DH slot.  They were at SS and the corner outfield spots, especially LF.  Tucker figuring it out and Correa having a healthy season would make all of the difference and we wouldn't worry about the DH spot at all.  You could rotate White, Yuli, Kemp, and Tucker in the DH slot all year and combine to have a 1-2 WAR DH, I think.

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I don't disagree that positional flexibility is a bonus, but you need a solid bat at DH, and White doesn't really provide much help on defense.

The Astros' DH position ranked 8th (of 16) in wRC+ (114) - so, middle of the pack, hitting .243/.308/.480. It's not horrible, but could be better. The rotation you suggest could be fine. 

But Smoak would be an upgrade from Gattis. He has posted OBPs of .355 and .350 the last 2 years, and wRC+ of 133 and 121 (Gattis was 106 and 99). 

TOR needs to make room for Vlad Jr (he's not likely to play 3B in MLB) and I believe Smoak has a year left...he could likely be had for a few lower-level prospects. He's the type of guy that could solidify the DH spot.

I'm not saying Justin Smoak is the be-all/end-all, just that he's the type of hitter that could be a likely upgrade and could probably be had for a minimal investment. 

Posted
  On 10/24/2018 at 1:18 PM, Hank Chinaski said:

Huh. He's a useful player and seems like a guy his teammates genuinely like. And yeah, he was obviously a major contributor throughout the club's ascension. 

I'd love to have him as a utility guy, but I am not sad that he won't be in the lineup every day, or starting the most important games in LF. 

He'll do well in FA. 

Expand  

He's also a good dude.

Posted
  On 10/25/2018 at 3:21 AM, Hank Chinaski said:

I don't disagree that positional flexibility is a bonus, but you need a solid bat at DH, and White doesn't really provide much help on defense.

The Astros' DH position ranked 8th (of 16) in wRC+ (114) - so, middle of the pack, hitting .243/.308/.480. It's not horrible, but could be better. The rotation you suggest could be fine. 

But Smoak would be an upgrade from Gattis. He has posted OBPs of .355 and .350 the last 2 years, and wRC+ of 133 and 121 (Gattis was 106 and 99). 

TOR needs to make room for Vlad Jr (he's not likely to play 3B in MLB) and I believe Smoak has a year left...he could likely be had for a few lower-level prospects. He's the type of guy that could solidify the DH spot.

I'm not saying Justin Smoak is the be-all/end-all, just that he's the type of hitter that could be a likely upgrade and could probably be had for a minimal investment. 

Expand  

Question. I like Smoak, but is he an upgrade over Marwin with the bat. Not even mentioning the versatility he adds.

Posted (edited)
  On 10/25/2018 at 3:43 AM, ckhorn said:

Question. I like Smoak, but is he an upgrade over Marwin with the bat. Not even mentioning the versatility he adds.

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Kind of did some research myself. With the exception of 2017. Smoak is kind of the LHH Evan Gattis. I would prefer Nelson Cruz for one year.

Dam. Gattis maybe is better.

I'd pass on Smoak.

Edited by ckhorn
Posted
  On 10/25/2018 at 3:52 AM, ckhorn said:

Kind of did some research myself. With the exception of 2017. Smoak is kind of the LHH Evan Gattis. I would prefer Nelson Cruz for one year.

Dam. Gattis maybe is better.

I'd pass on Smoak.

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Until the last 2 years, Smoak was not very good. But he was better in both 2017 and 2018 than Evan Gattis, by a lot. 

In 2017-2018 combined, Smoak was tied with Jose Abreu for the highest wRC+ (128) among AL first basemen - and tied for 6th in MLB with Abreu and Bellinger, only 2 points behind Anthony Rizzo. He has a combined .353 OBP over the last 2 years (Gattis's career high is .319 in 2016). 

Speaking of - here is how Smoak compared to Rizzo and Abreu in 2017-2018:

Smoak: .256/.353/.495; 63 HR

Abreu: .287/.341/.517; 55 HR

Rizzo: .278/.384/.489; 57 HR

Again, I'm not saying we should invest in the guy over the long haul; just that, if he is available (he figures to be) and can be had for 2-3 lower-level prospects (he figures to be), he is a guy worth looking at that should provide an upgrade at DH every day - essentially to replace Gattis on the roster. There would not be much risk involved in that sort of deal.

Cruz has been a very good hitter consistently, to be sure -  he turns 39 next year. If you can get Cruz on a 1-year deal, well hell, I'd be fine with that for sure. 

Posted

career wRC+:

Justin Smoak: 105

Tyler White: 112

Evan Gattis: 110

Marwin Gonzalez: 103

Nelson Cruz: 129

 

If they aren’t going to spend the money on an elite bat (which Smoak is not), rolling with Whitey is the best option.

Posted
  On 10/25/2018 at 3:50 PM, Snake Diggity said:

career wRC+:

Justin Smoak: 105

Tyler White: 112

Evan Gattis: 110

Marwin Gonzalez: 103

Nelson Cruz: 129

 

If they aren’t going to spend the money on an elite bat (which Smoak is not), rolling with Whitey is the best option.

Expand  

I would argue that what Smoak has done the last two years is more relevant to 2019 than what he did early in his career...and over his last 1200+ PAs he's hit pretty much like Rizzo and Abreu, either of whom I think we'd all be excited about. Anyway...I'm not suggesting it has to be Smoak specifically or that he's a savior, just trying to identify guys that could be inexpensive upgrades. 

All things being equal, I'd prefer Cruz...would be great if we could get him for a year, but he'll probably want more than that. I just don't see Lunhow giving a multi-year deal to a 39-year old DH. 

But, yeah, to your point - White could be capable - he's just more of an unknown because of his limited ABs. I'd be fine with giving him first crack at DH. And that's probably the most likely scenario. 

Posted
  On 10/24/2018 at 2:10 PM, Snake Diggity said:

That Kaplan article makes me think they might QO Keuchel, Morton, and Gonzalez and hope they all decline (although they probably wouldn’t mind if Morton accepted).  3 extra draft picks plus no more intl signing penalty means they could use 2019 as a year to create a wave of potential core players, or at least restock the farm with deadline trade chips.

They may end up just adding a catcher and a starting pitcher and otherwise rolling with what they have.  Still likely a 95 win team and they can always go get what they need at the deadline.

 

CF Springer

3B Bregman

2B Altuve

SS Correa

C TBD

1B Gurriel

LF Tucker

DH White

RF Reddick

bench: Kemp, Stassi, Marisnick

rotation: Verlander, Cole, TBD, McHugh, James

bullpen: F Valdez, Peacock, Devenski, Harris, Smith, Rondon, Pressly, Osuna

Expand  

I'd try to resign Maldonado.  I roll with the exact pitching staff you have listed there, and give Whitley, Bukauskas, and Armenteros a shot at the bigs before I start looking to sign help.  I trade White ASAP for whatever I can get even if its just a pitching machine or a bucket of balls.  There has to be a serviceable fat guy that can hit HRs available somewhere.  I'd even rather just rotate guys in from the farm system until one sticks than have White playing there.  Anybody can stand up there and strike out.

Posted
  On 10/25/2018 at 5:53 PM, FondrenRoad said:

I'd try to resign Maldonado.  I roll with the exact pitching staff you have listed there, and give Whitley, Bukauskas, and Armenteros a shot at the bigs before I start looking to sign help.  I trade White ASAP for whatever I can get even if its just a pitching machine or a bucket of balls.  There has to be a serviceable fat guy that can hit HRs available somewhere.  I'd even rather just rotate guys in from the farm system until one sticks than have White playing there.  Anybody can stand up there and strike out.

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Have you ever heard of this thing called “recency bias”?   Maybe give it a look. 

White had some huge moments for the team this year and one really visible moment of failure in a key spot.  

Carlos Beltrán watched strike three to end the ‘06 NLCS.  By your logic, he probably should have given up on baseball at that point.

 

  • Like 1
Posted
  On 10/25/2018 at 6:22 PM, Guadaloopy said:

Have you ever heard of this thing called “recency bias”?   Maybe give it a look. 

White had some huge moments for the team this year and one really visible moment of failure in a key spot.  

Carlos Beltrán watched strike three to end the ‘06 NLCS.  By your logic, he probably should have given up on baseball at that point.

 

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Maybe.  I have just never really liked White as a hitter even when he had a pretty good streak going.  Don't know why.  Maybe its his stance.  I think those "huge moments" were luck, but either way, we will probably get to see him have another shot at it this year.

Posted (edited)

He is going to be given every chance to win the job during spring training.  He's past the point of AAA doing him much good.

Edited by kevwun
Posted

tucker should be given every opportunity, and assuming the rest of our lineup is healthy and hitting, we can afford to be patient.  unfortunately, the combination of his slow start and the state of our lineup did not line up properly this past season.  until he gets 500+ ab for multiple seasons and hits .210, i'm going to assume he's on his way to being a solid contributor at the very least.  having him rake at aaa does nothing for him or us.

Posted (edited)

I haven't seen Smoak play recently, but Yuli is well above average at 1st.  Is Smoak really as good or better there?

Edited by kevwun
Posted
  On 10/25/2018 at 9:57 PM, kevwun said:
I haven't seen Smoak play recently, but Yuli is well above average at 1st.  Is Smoak really as good or better there?
Yeah I haven't looked at any metrics but my eyeballs say Yuli is a good glove at first. He's aging but still has those hot corner instincts from his early days.
Posted

I love Yuli, but how old is he really.   This post-season for him was a real disappointment compared to last year.  Maybe he never recovered from the hamate bone injury.

Hoping he goes back to his leading the league in RISP batting average next year and can produce in the playoffs.

White, what a tough call.  I knew he was going to be irrelevant during the post-season.  I feel like he feasted on shitty pitchers and never produced against real pitching.  

I don't know that he's the DH of our future, but he sure tears up AAA.

Tucker is such an enigma.  He destroys AAA and still hasn't hit one home run in the show.  Hopefully he WINS the LF spot without question and allows us to buy a real DH or something else beneficial.

Posted
  On 10/26/2018 at 2:40 AM, Pablo said:

I love Yuli, but how old is he really.   This post-season for him was a real disappointment compared to last year.  Maybe he never recovered from the hamate bone injury.

Hoping he goes back to his leading the league in RISP batting average next year and can produce in the playoffs.

White, what a tough call.  I knew he was going to be irrelevant during the post-season.  I feel like he feasted on shitty pitchers and never produced against real pitching.  

I don't know that he's the DH of our future, but he sure tears up AAA.

Tucker is such an enigma.  He destroys AAA and still hasn't hit one home run in the show.  Hopefully he WINS the LF spot without question and allows us to buy a real DH or something else beneficial.

Expand  

Really? God I hate the off-season.

  • Like 1

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