2018-2019 Astros Offseason Thread

[Seasick Sailor 3,747]

The Marlins and Astros have remained in contact regarding a possible trade of catcher J.T. Realmuto, and Miami's asking price remains unchanged. One source said the Marlins have maintained that outfielder Kyle Tucker (ranked by MLB Pipeline as the Astros' No. 1 prospect) or right-hander Forrest Whitley (Houston's No. 2 prospect) would need to be part of any package for Realmuto.

No thanks. Grandal, Ramos, or Maldanado will work just fine and cost less in the long run.

Edited November 16, 2018 by Seasick Sailor

[Mez2 4,023]

yeah, that's gonna be a "no", dog

[Hank Chinaski 6,314]

15 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

this sounds like fantasy baseball talk.

if everyone is healthy and producing offensively, all we need at catcher is a martin maldonado type.  someone who calls a good game and plays strong defense.  if they can frame and throw, awesome.  if they occasionally run into one?  cool.

if tucker matures properly, our lineup will be plenty long, and will still contain 3 mvp candidates (hoping correa isn't broken).

I generally agree with this. The counterpoint would be that we have gaping lineup holes at C and LF, and RF, 1B and DH are extremely ordinary, if not sub-par. That's 5/9 of your lineup. Add in the unreliable durability of your SS, and things suddenly don't look so promising.

I'm all for giving Tucker a chance to be the guy in LF, but he's far from a sure thing. 

But if we traded Tucker for Realmuto and signed someone like McCutchen to play LF for the next couple of years...I'd feel better about the everyday lineup in 2019-20. That's not to say that moving Tucker is the right move, just giving an example.  

All that said...I'm fine with a guy like Moldonado, but if we go that route, I'd hope to see an offensive upgrade somewhere (Nelson Cruz?).

 

Edited November 16, 2018 by Hank Chinaski

[kevwun 15,774]

Yeah, Jeter can go fuck himself if he thinks he's getting Tucker or Whitley for 2 years of a good hitting catcher with debatable defensive skills.

[Hank Chinaski 6,314]

18 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Yeah, Jeter can go fuck himself if he thinks he's getting Tucker or Whitley for 2 years of a good hitting catcher with debatable defensive skills.

Yeah, I mean, he has to ask for those guys I guess. He's not getting them though. 

[Snake Diggity 4,621]

The Lucroy trade from a couple years ago is probably a pretty good comp for a Realmuto trade; Lucroy was one of the top 3 catchers in the game and had 2.5 years of control remaining.  There was a decent reliever included with Lucroy, but Texas gave up Brinson and Ortiz.  I think the equivalent to Brinson would be Tucker and Ortiz would be somebody like Cionel Perez.  And I do think some team will end up biting the bullet and giving up an MLB Top 30 prospect as the headliner, I just hope it isn’t the Astros.  Now, if Miami was willing to include Dietrich or Steckenrider, or give back a meaningful prospect (their Top 30 is chock full of interesting guys), then it would be easier to consider.

[Chuckie Finster 22,694]

At this point, I personally have no problem trading Tucker in a deal for a star.  I felt the exact same way about Bregman 2 years ago.  That makes me think we shouldn't do it.

[kevwun 15,774]

The problem is that the star in this case would not be a star if he wasn't a catcher and he's not particularly good at the catching part of the position.

[henrygandorf 29,189]

i still don't consider realmuto to be a "star".  it's not like we're trading for 28 year old buster posey.

the last couple years, realmuto has batted ~.278 with 19 homers and 70 rbi (averaging).  he'll be 28 heading into the 2019 season.  he hit .303 in 2016, and his homer/rbi total have been trending up since then.  to be worth trading tucker or whitley, who i consider to be future all-stars, we would need to be certain realmuto was ready to graduate into a 25+ homer and 85+ rbi guy the next two years, and it still doesn't seem worth it.

shit, gattis has put up much better power numbers with us, obviously not as a catcher, and except last year's dip at .225, hit in the .250's. 

i just don't see realmuto as a sure-fire long term solution at catcher, or some sort of missing piece to a championship. 

also it's hard to justify not dealing those guys for verlander or cole, then turning around and sending one to miami for realmuto.  

i'm out.

[Scraps 13,561]

AJ Reed to catcher

[Gut Wagon 8,065]

5 hours ago, Seasick Sailor said:

 

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/0eb24b53-f36d-4eef-974e-51492da583ed

 

 

[runthebone 7,974]

Now Jeter is asking for something back in a trade?  That wasn't the case last year.

 

Well, we can move on and wait for him to come back to us.

[HtownHorn 14,677]

I would rate them (in terms of least amount of long term cost + production) right now

1) Grandal

2) Maldonado

3) Stassi/Stubbs

4) Ramos

5) Realmuto

[henrygandorf 29,189]

it's difficult to rank three different types of guys (fa/guys in our system/trade) especially considering there's no salary cap in baseball and it's not my money.  

grandal doesn't have the avg upside, but he walks a bunch, and can be a legit 25/75 guy for us who can actually hit 5-7 (unlike a stassi/maldonado).  he just turned 30, and could be the answer for the next 4-5 years.  if we can afford him without sacrificing future pieces/plans (again, no cap, not my money) then that's my vote too.

[HtownHorn 14,677]

33 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

it's difficult to rank three different types of guys (fa/guys in our system/trade) especially considering there's no salary cap in baseball and it's not my money.  

grandal doesn't have the avg upside, but he walks a bunch, and can be a legit 25/75 guy for us who can actually hit 5-7 (unlike a stassi/maldonado).  he just turned 30, and could be the answer for the next 4-5 years.  if we can afford him without sacrificing future pieces/plans (again, no cap, not my money) then that's my vote too.

It also helps that the Astros should have plenty of payroll flexibility considering the $80M+ coming off the books. Grandal has been at or above the league average in CS since his 1st 2 seasons, and his splits aren't awful. Though he is better against RHP, which plays into Stassi's strength as well. 

[Hank Chinaski 6,314]

56 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

it's difficult to rank three different types of guys (fa/guys in our system/trade) especially considering there's no salary cap in baseball and it's not my money.  

grandal doesn't have the avg upside, but he walks a bunch, and can be a legit 25/75 guy for us who can actually hit 5-7 (unlike a stassi/maldonado).  he just turned 30, and could be the answer for the next 4-5 years.  if we can afford him without sacrificing future pieces/plans (again, no cap, not my money) then that's my vote too.

Grandal also got a QO, so we'd forfeit a draft pick to sign him. 

[Hank Chinaski 6,314]

3 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

i still don't consider realmuto to be a "star".  it's not like we're trading for 28 year old buster posey.

the last couple years, realmuto has batted ~.278 with 19 homers and 70 rbi (averaging).  he'll be 28 heading into the 2019 season.  he hit .303 in 2016, and his homer/rbi total have been trending up since then.  to be worth trading tucker or whitley, who i consider to be future all-stars, we would need to be certain realmuto was ready to graduate into a 25+ homer and 85+ rbi guy the next two years, and it still doesn't seem worth it.

shit, gattis has put up much better power numbers with us, obviously not as a catcher, and except last year's dip at .225, hit in the .250's. 

i just don't see realmuto as a sure-fire long term solution at catcher, or some sort of missing piece to a championship. 

also it's hard to justify not dealing those guys for verlander or cole, then turning around and sending one to miami for realmuto.  

i'm out.

On the other hand, Realmuto played in a pretty extreme pitcher's park in Miami, and hit .283/.350/.520 on the road last season (134 wRC+). We saw how Yelich went from a good hitter in Miami to the NL MVP in Milwaukee.

Realmuto also rated as the best catcher in MLB by a lot per Fangraphs (4.8 WAR; Grandal was 2nd at 3.6). 

There is no question he makes the team better. The question is whether he makes the team better enough over the next 2 years to risk controlling Tucker for the next 7 (I don't think we'd consider Whitley given the current status of the roster). Realmuto figures to be a ~4-win player over the next 2 years; that production seems very optimistic for Tucker...but he has a lot more than 2 years...

I'm not sure how to quantify that, but I'm confident the organization does (and already knows the answer). 

[Gut Wagon 8,065]

Convince me Tucker will never be a good MLB hitter and I’ll give the go-ahead on including him for Realmuto. But I don’t think that’s possible, because the kid has talent. I’d rather get Grandal if Realmuto cost either of Tucker or Whitley. 

[henrygandorf 29,189]

3 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Grandal also got a QO, so we'd forfeit a draft pick to sign him. 

i've read the latest cba rules regarding losing and gaining picks from losing and gaining offered guys and i still don't fucking understand what any of it means.

i think if we signed grandal (but nobody else who recieved a qo) we would lose our 2nd highest pick and half a million in int'l signing money.  does that sound right?  obviously we'll gain a pick when dk signs elsewhere for over $50mm (the cutoff i think) but i don't think it's as high a pick.  maybe 3/4th round type?  used to be a sandwich pick after round 1.

[Hank Chinaski 6,314]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

i've read the latest cba rules regarding losing and gaining picks from losing and gaining offered guys and i still don't fucking understand what any of it means.

i think if we signed grandal (but nobody else who recieved a qo) we would lose our 2nd highest pick and half a million in int'l signing money.  does that sound right?  obviously we'll gain a pick when dk signs elsewhere for over $50mm (the cutoff i think) but i don't think it's as high a pick.  maybe 3/4th round type?  used to be a sandwich pick after round 1.

Yup, you're right regarding the "penalty" for signing Grandal - certainly not the deterrent it used to be.

Apparently, for losing DK, the Astros will get a pick that occurs following round 2.

From MLB.com:

Under the current rules, if the team that loses the free agent is a revenue-sharing recipient, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection -- if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million -- will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the 2019 MLB Draft. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.

The following 16 teams currently qualify for these picks: A's, Braves, Brewers, D-backs, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers and Twins.

If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case. The 12 clubs that fall into this category are the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, White Sox and Yankees.

[Snake Diggity 4,621]

If Houston signed Grandal, and Keuchel signed elsewhere, the Astros would lose their 2nd round pick, gain a pick in Compensation Round B (after the 2nd round), and lose $500k of their international signing bonus pool.  So the net of losing a QO guy and then gaining a QO guy is a negative.  And with the new hard cap on international spending, that $500k is more significant; I’d say it’s the equivalent of a 7th or 8th round draft pick.

But I’d rather have Grandal at $70M/5yr than have Realmuto for Tucker and 2-3 other decent assets.  And I’d probably rather have Wilson Ramos at $40M/3yr than either of those 2 options.  But ideally Houston really does need to wind up with one of those 3 catchers.  (Omar Narvaez and Sally Perez would be the only other 2 available players I’d consider acceptable.)

Edited November 17, 2018 by Snake Diggity

[henrygandorf 29,189]

it's "net negative" but not catastrophic.  i think the tradeoff is worth it.

especially since our 2nd round pick is late.

Edited November 17, 2018 by henrygandorf

[HtownHorn 14,677]

Astros traded Trent Thornton for Aledmys Diaz. He's Marwin's replacement.

[Hank Chinaski 6,314]

2 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Astros traded Trent Thornton for Aledmys Diaz. He's Marwin's replacement.

I like it. Maintains defensive roster flexibility and he's probably about as good a hitter as Marwin. 

[kevwun 15,774]

Very similar offensively with the bonus of striking out a lot less.

Edited November 17, 2018 by kevwun

[Scraps 13,561]

I had him on my fantasy team a few years back and he was a stud. Kind of fell off some but I'll allow it

[kevwun 15,774]

Yeah, had his career year in his first season and has dropped off since but still solid.  Just makes him even more like Marwin.

[Hank Chinaski 6,314]

Yup - average-ish hitter that can play around the IF. 

[Mez2 4,023]

buenos diaz, bitches

[TonyTexas 10,510]

I like it. Under control for 4 years. All star in 2016 rookie season. Thornton was subject to Rule 5 draft.

[The Dog 44,020]

Hate losing Thornton but this looks like a good trade. We were almost definitely going to lose Thornton to Rule 5 if we didn't add him to the 40 man roster.

 

[tx 3 putt 76,906]

On 11/15/2018 at 1:28 PM, Scraps said:

Southwest opened flights through July. Seriously considering a weeklong road trip with the stros in june. Cincy to NY

Keep me updated 

[Gut Wagon 8,065]

2 hours ago, kevwun said:

Very similar offensively with the bonus of striking out a lot less.

Of course, in our case that could just mean hitting into even more DPs. 

[DallasGatr 216]

Hate losing Thornton but this looks like a good trade. We were almost definitely going to lose Thornton to Rule 5 if we didn't add him to the 40 man roster.
 

Thornton was our #24 rated prospect and #10 rated pitcher. (And a probable rule 5 casualty.) For this we get Marwin part II? Sounds like the Wizard strikes again!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[HtownHorn 14,677]

Interesting splits for Diaz.

Career .812 OPS against RHP, .692 against LHP.

 

[LCHorn 2,616]

22 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

i've read the latest cba rules regarding losing and gaining picks from losing and gaining offered guys and i still don't fucking understand what any of it means.

i think if we signed grandal (but nobody else who recieved a qo) we would lose our 2nd highest pick and half a million in int'l signing money.  does that sound right?  obviously we'll gain a pick when dk signs elsewhere for over $50mm (the cutoff i think) but i don't think it's as high a pick.  maybe 3/4th round type?  used to be a sandwich pick after round 1.

That’s mirrors my thoughts.  I prefer consolidating my draft pick losses into the same draft.  If Luhnow agrees, maybe this makes it more likely for more than one restricted free agent signing (if they sign Grandal, for example).

[runthebone 7,974]

8 hours ago, Scraps said:

I had him on my fantasy team a few years back and he was a stud. Kind of fell off some but I'll allow it

Well, he's a Cuban 27, so he is probably a Biological 36.  Good pick up...wonder if the Blue Jays tried to send Giles back with him.  

[UTexasFight 9,431]

Man, Luhnow loves the Blue Jays
How many trades is that now between him and Atkins?

Not to mention, going back a few years before Atkins got there, there was also the 10 player deal that included Musgrove

[BornOrange 1,441]

Diaz also played for the Cardinals, even though it was after Luhnow came to Houston.

[formermav43 4,606]

That's a fantastic trade.

[TexArcher 37,774]

Love the Diaz addition.

[tx 3 putt 76,906]

great pick up 

[Snake Diggity 4,621]

Diaz and Marwin posted the same fWAR (1.6) last season.  Diaz will cost ~$10M total over the next 4 seasons; Marwin will cost ~$40M over that span.  Trent Thornton ain’t worth $30M.  Excellent trade.  Only thing is that adding another bat now would bump White or Tucker off the roster.  

Edited November 19, 2018 by Snake Diggity

[Seasick Sailor 3,747]

Astros and Jays Both Win Diaz/Thorton Deal

By. Eric Longenhagen

Tuesday is the deadline to add Rule 5-eligible players to the 40-man roster, and teams with an excess of candidates for addition often find trade partners, especially if doing so enables them to fill holes on other parts of their own roster.

The Toronto Blue Jays have scavenged the overflow of talented rosters several times over the last few years. Billy McKinney, Brandon Drury, David Paulino and Teoscar Hernandez were all upper-level performers who were blocked by more dynamic talents. Toronto also has to contend a potential infield surplus of their own, especially with shortstop Troy Tulowitzki hoping to return to the field in 2019. Saturday’s trade with Houston helped both clubs inch closer to 40-man equilibrium.

 

Astros get:

INF Aledmys Diaz

Blue Jays get:

RHP Trent Thornton

 

The 28-year-old Diaz is coming off a 1.6 WAR season during which he slashed .260/.303/.453 and hit 18 homers. He instantly becomes the most versatile bench infielder on a roster that’s heavy on big-bodied 1B/3B/DH types, a fact which likely puts him first in line for reps should Carlos Correa and Jose Altuvecontinue to have injury problems.

Though he’s a below-average defender at short, Diaz’s lackluster lateral quickness can be hidden somewhat by modern defensive positioning. On days when he is at short, his relative inability to get to balls in the hole to his right should be more manageable if he’s playing next to Alex Bregman. With Marwin Gonzalezleaving via free agency, Diaz is also probably second in line for reps behind Altuve at second base even though he has barely played there (five games in 2017, six in the 2015 Fall League) because he’s likely better than Tony Kemp and Yuli Gurriel.

Source: FanGraphs

Diaz’s 2.7 WAR rookie season seems to have been a caricature of his skills, drawn by some BABIP luck and a walk rate that was twice what he has averaged during the last two combined seasons. His flat bat path made it difficult for him to lift the baseball early in his career despite his ability to hit the ball hard. This improved slightly in 2018 when his groundball and dribbler rates combined to make up 40% of his balls in play, down from 49% in 2017, according to xStats. Steamer is expecting him to SLG .438 next year, but that’s probably based on some regression instead of extrapolating improvement, and Houston is good at fixing swings. Because Diaz is so aggressive in the box, he’ll probably always be a low-OBP hitter, but he’s a versatile infielder with some pop and is under team control for another four years. He’ll play a valuable role for the Astros.

Trent Thornton is also likely to make a big league splash in 2019. The 25-year-old righty spent 2018 at Triple-A Fresno and just wrapped up an eye-opening stint in the Arizona Fall League. He has bat-missing big league stuff, sitting 92-95 and touching 96 in my multi-inning looks at him this fall, and sitting comfortably in the 95-96 range when he was asked to air it out for a single inning.

Thornton also has elite breaking ball spin rates. His 12-6 curveball spins in excess of 3,000 rpm and his firm, upper-80s slider often approaches that mark, which is rare for a breaking ball that hard. He also has a unique delivery that disorients hitters. His arm action is ugly but, short of a 7-day DL stint this year after he was hit with a comebacker, Thornton hasn’t been hurt as a pro. His usage has been atypical, however. Thornton’s starts were often spaced out by seven or eight days in 2018, and it’s unrealistic to expect him to have that kind of recovery time between turns on a big league pitching staff. If asked to throw every fifth day, his stuff may not be as nasty as it was this year. I have Thornton projected as a 120-130 inning starter with a FIP near 4.00, which puts him in the 1.5 to 2.0 WAR range annually, assuming his stuff holds on a normal schedule. He needs to be added to the Jays 40-man to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. I expect he will be, and that we’ll see him in the Majors next year.

If you’re tracking long-term transaction outcomes, you’ll likely already consider this deal a win for both clubs. The Astros took a 5th round college arm who was throwing 89-92 and touching 93 or 94, helped him turn into a guy sitting 92-96, then flipped him for four years of a power-hitting infielder who fills an immediate need. The Jays traded J.B. Woodman, who turns 24 in three weeks and struck out in 41% of his PA’s at Hi-A this year, to St. Louis for Diaz (himself a roster overflow guy who was expendable after Paul DeJong’s breakout) and then flipped him a year later to fill an immediate need.

Edited November 19, 2018 by Seasick Sailor

[Seasick Sailor 3,747]

Best news of the day. Hope we can work out a deal to keep Charlie around.

Astros Reportedly Make Offer Charlie Morton

By: Steve Adams

 

The Astros have made an initial offer to bring right-hander Charlie Morton back to Houston, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The dollar amount of the reported offer is yet unclear, though Nightengale does specify that it’s a one-year contract with an option for a second year.

Vague as the terms may still be, it seems reasonable to expect that the total value of the pact of for less than $17.9MM. Houston surprisingly declined to make a qualifying offer at that rate to Morton, so it’d be curious to see them turn around and offer Morton anything north of that sum.

Morton, who turned 35 last week, at one point voiced uncertainty as to whether he planned to continue his playing career beyond the 2018 campaign, but he recently stated that he planned to continue pitching and would “love” to return to the Astros. However, he’s also made clear that he doesn’t plan to keep playing into his late 30s, citing a desire to spend time with his growing family. To that end, Morton suggested to The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan back in April that proximity to his wife’s family in Delaware could be a factor, were he to consider teams outside of Houston. The Phillies and Nationals would most closely meet that criteria.

Whether Morton wants to pitch another two years isn’t certain, but there’s little doubt that he should be able to find a strong multi-year offer on the open market after rapidly elevating his status upon signing with the Astros. Morton’s two-year, $14MM with Houston proved to be a remarkable bargain, as the righty made 55 starts in 2017-18 and pitched to an excellent 3.36 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9 and a 49.6 percent ground-ball rate. Perhaps, given the uncertainty about how long he wants to continue his career, a one-year pact with a substantial value and some form of vesting or player option would hold appeal to Morton. However, a guaranteed two-year deal should materialize in free agency if he wishes to lock himself into another couple of years.

[Amos Moses 795]

Great news on CFM.  He would be difficult to replace.

[Guadaloopy 10,960]

This is exactly what I thought was going to happen.  The yearly amount will be less than the QO, but the total potential value of the contract is probably close to $30M and I’m betting player option, not club option for the second year.  

[Johnny Sack 8,397]

I’d love Morton to come back.  And maybe liberally use the ten day DL to limit his innings.   

[Snake Diggity 4,621]

I suspect Morton’s health isn’t 100%, and that if he signs with the Astros we will all he surprised for how little he gets.

[Seasick Sailor 3,747]

Berkman and Oswalt make their debut on the HoF ballot this year. Neither one will make it this year. I'm not sure either one ever will. But should they?