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2018-2019 Astros Offseason Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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Planet Houston
Planet Houston

Well, it just wasn't in the cards this year.  A combination of great play by the BoSox, the injury bug, inopportune cold streaks and inability to put batters away with 2 outs resulted in an early exit

Seasick Sailor
Seasick Sailor

Thanks for the memories:

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

am i the only one having trouble understanding wtf this means?

Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6310

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, APMP said:

If the health checks out, it's worth offering Whitley in a package for 3 years of Thor, right?

Probably so. Syndergaard is basically what you hope Withley becomes. You give up Whitley's extra years of control for a sure thing (at least, as sure a thing as pitchers can be). I think he's one of the few guys for whom you could consider moving FW.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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16 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Probably so. Syndergaard is basically what you hope Withley becomes. You give up Whitley's extra years of control for a sure thing (at least, as sure a thing as pitchers can be). I think he's one of the few guys for whom you could consider moving FW.

at this point it's more about the overlap with guys like verlander than the longevity of whitley's contract.  we're aware of our window, and i think we'll try to maximize it.

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ckhorn

ckhorn 208

Posted
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On 11/24/2018 at 12:01 AM, henrygandorf said:

at this point it's more about the overlap with guys like verlander than the longevity of whitley's contract.  we're aware of our window, and i think we'll try to maximize it.

I just don't see us moving Tucker or Whitley. I believe the Org see's them as the future of the franchise once Verlander is gone and one or more of the core players are like Springer is gone or Altuve production declines.

Would love to get Goldsmith, but would have to take on Greinkes contract to do so and that is a ridiculous contract. Altuve contract is such a smarter contract.

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6310

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Posted

Snippet from Buster Olney this morning:

The Astros also have been active in discussions with the tier of free agents below Bryce Harper -- the likes of A.J. Pollack, McCutchen and Michael Brantley.

Perhaps getting a feel for what it would take to sign these guys in the event that they decide to include Tucker in a trade? 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14468

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Snippet from Buster Olney this morning:

The Astros also have been active in discussions with the tier of free agents below Bryce Harper -- the likes of A.J. Pollack, McCutchen and Michael Brantley.

Perhaps getting a feel for what it would take to sign these guys in the event that they decide to include Tucker in a trade? 

Would be in favor of getting 2 of those guys, as Pollack and Brantley come with injury risk and the Astros have holes at OF and DH.

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6310

Posted
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Would be in favor of getting 2 of those guys, as Pollack and Brantley come with injury risk and the Astros have holes at OF and DH.

Yeah, I'd prefer McCutchen out of those 3. Brantley may be the better hitter at this point, but to your point, he has trouble staying on the field. Cutch isn't what he was, but he has been a good hitter the last two seasons - gets on base and still has some power, and he's good enough defensively to play LF. I'm not sure either of the others would be a marked upgrade over White at DH, so I wouldn't sign more than one. 

But to me, these guys only make sense if Tucker is moved in a trade (presumably for Realmuto or a pitcher). 

Edited by Hank Chinaski
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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6310

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Brantley
Pollack
McCutchen


And this coming from the guy who wanted us to trade for McCutchen last season

Why Pollock over Cutch? He's a year younger, but less durable and a worse hitter. I guess he can play CF, but he's not what he used to be out there. 

Edited by Hank Chinaski
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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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Posted (edited)

I think there are going to be some really good values in the 2B market.  Murphy, Dozier, LeMahieu, and Lowrie are all really good players and I think at least 2 of those guys will sign for less than $10M/yr.  Cabrera, Kinsler, Harrison, and Walker are also everyday caliber 2B and several of them will be left out of the cold.  Might be a potential out of the box move for Houston to sign one as a DH and have them spot in LF and/or 1B.  Would love Murphy or Dozier hitting 6th or 7th in Houston’s lineup. Dozier especially could be a big time rebound candidate; over the last 6 seasons (including his shit 2018), he averaged 28 HR and 3.8 fWAR.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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Posted

he throws hard.  that's why i was interested in him at the deadline.  i thought he could be a good swingman, and obviously he helped the sox.  being around verlander and cole would be great for a guy in his situation.  i just worry that a great postseason would cause a team to overpay.  that said, i doubt we'll overpay.

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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3747

Posted
Posted

Astros Could Help Nathan Eovaldi Get Even Better

By: Matt Kelly

After a pair of Tommy John surgeries, multiple trades and a year out of baseball entirely, Nathan Eovaldijust pitched as well as he ever has in helping the Red Sox win the World Series

But is there potential for him to get even better?

MLB.com's Jon Morosi reported Tuesday that the Astros are showing "continued interest" in signing Eovaldi. The righty could pitch in front of his hometown hero, Nolan Ryan, at Minute Maid Park, instantly join another World Series contender and bolster a rotation already stacked with a pair of aces in Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. 

 

 

#Astros showing continued interest in free agent Nathan Eovaldi, sources say. He is the second best pitcher ever from Alvin, Texas. And if Eovaldi signs with Houston, No. 1 on that list will watch him pitch from a seat behind home plate . . . @MLBNetwork @MLB

 
426 people are talking about this
 
 
 

It's the latter benefit that hints at the most exciting possibility of all: Eovaldi seems like the perfect next project for Houston's vaunted coaching and analytical staffs. In two successive seasons, the Astros have taken a pair of brand-name starters in Verlander and Cole (not to mention others, like Charlie Morton and Brad Peacock) and helped them become better pitchers by presenting data and tweaking their mechanics. Here's what Cole -- who went from an ace stuck in neutral in Pittsburgh to a Cy Young Award contender in Houston -- told ESPN's Marly Rivera last June about the Astros' staff:

"They continually put me in a better spot. That's given me the physical ability to go out and apply what I've learned here in such a short time. It's basically throwing the four-seam. Run the four-seam more."

The four-seam fastball is the key connection between Cole and Eovaldi. Like Cole, Eovaldi owns a high-octane four-seamer; at 97.1 mph, per Statcast™, it was the second-fastest on average among 113 starters who threw at least 500 of those pitches last year (Cole clocked in right behind him). But, as MLB.com's Mike Petriello noted several years ago, Eovaldi's four-seamer doesn't carry the type of spin that elicits the number of whiffs one would expect from a pitch that fast. In fact, Eovaldi's heater carried very similar basic parameters to Cole's in Pittsburgh.

Cole and Eovaldi's four-seamer similarities

Cole, 2017 (PIT): 95.9 mph / 2,164 rpm / 19.8% whiff rate*
Eovaldi, 2018 (TB/BOS): 97.1 mph / 2,135 rpm / 24.3% whiff rate
*Whiff rate = Misses / Total swings

For context, Major League pitchers averaged a 2,263 rpm spin rate on four-seam fastballs in 2018, and a whiff rate of 20.5 percent on that pitch type. Four-seamers with spin rates above 2,300 to 2,400 rpm tend to elicit more whiffs and popups. Once he joined the Astros, Cole not only began throwing his four-seam fastball more while putting his two-seamer on the backburner; he also saw his four-seam spin rate jumpabout as much as any pitcher has seen since Statcast™ launched in 2015. Cole credited the Astros and Verlander in numerous interviews with helping him change both his hand positioning and spin axis on that pitch, while also re-adjusting his mindset toward attacking the top of the strike zone.

"He found out that he had good four-seam hop, and he didn't really know how to use it," Verlander told MLB.com's David Adler of Cole's adjustments last year. "[In Spring Training] we were playing catch, and I was pointing out the ones that were good and the ones that were bad. And they were basically the opposite of what he thought."

Cole added, "To me, it seems like I'm yanking the ball. But to [Verlander], he's like, 'You're actually staying behind the ball and getting better rotation. It's actually doing what you want it to do. It's not fading, it's jumping.' I took that trajectory and moved it to my spots. Trying to chase that type of action, that was a big day for me."

Cole's four-seamer transformed from a somewhat disappointing pitch, given its velocity, to one of baseball's very best in 2018. The righty's 250 swings-and-misses on the four-seamer ranked third behind Verlander and Max Scherzer, and the .185 average he allowed on the pitch was also MLB's third-best mark (min. 200 at-bats). Along with throwing more curves and sliders, Cole's ascendance was due in large part to his four-seam spin jump (a 2,379-rpm average in '18, 12th-best among qualified starters).

 

 
Statcast: Cole's filthy K's
 
Statcast: Cole's filthy K's00:52Oct. 6th, 2018

So, could Eovaldi see the same kind of improvements under the Astros' tutelage? It's worth noting that Cole's transformation was rare; not everyone can simply add spin to their pitches, because it is mostly an inherent skill as opposed to one acquired. But if any team could help Eovaldi improve his heater, it would be the Astros, who, as The Athletic's Eno Sarris found recently, have helped a handful of pitchers find small spin gains in recent seasons.

And here's the most encouraging sign for the Astros: We've already seen Eovaldi flash his high-spin potential. Statcast™ has tracked a number of Eovaldi four-seamers with spin rates over 2,400 rpm since 2015, including the '18 postseason. Perhaps some simple mechanical tweaks could help him unlock those pitches on a more consistent basis.

Spin isn't the only key to success when attacking big league hitters. Eovaldi, for instance, allowed a .280 average on 2,300-plus rpm four-seamers in 2015-16 before he underwent his second Tommy John surgery. However, he was throwing the majority of those high-spinners down toward hitters' knees and not at the top of the strike zone, where those pitches are most effective. Based on their history with other pitchers, that's a change you can bet the Astros would suggest if Eovaldi signs.

It's Hot Stove season, which means we're making some assumptions here, but with Dallas Keuchel and Morton both currently free agents, it seems likely they will go out and get an elite arm. That said, the Astros haven't signed Eovaldi yet, and his injury history can't be forgotten. A pair of Tommy John surgeries means Eovaldi's career could turn for the worse on any given pitch, and he just worked overtime to help deliver the Red Sox a World Series title. Maybe the Astros would avoid mechanical changes altogether if they felt it would put additional strain on that right elbow. Still, Eovaldi already took so many steps forward as a pitcher last season that it's tantalizing to imagine him getting even better. His cutter became a major weapon, and remember: He was already doing this to the Dodgers' Justin Turner during his heroic World Series Game 3 relief appearance with the fastball he currently owns:

 

 
Eovaldi pumps heater past Turner
 
Eovaldi pumps heater past Turner00:23Oct. 26th, 2018

Eovaldi has been linked with his potential ever since the Dodgers gave him a $250,000 signing bonus out of high school 10 years ago. Maybe the Astros' rumored interest signals their belief that they can help him unlock that next level in 2019.

Matt Kelly is a reporter for MLB.com based in New York. Follow him on Twitter at @mattkellyMLB.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

Posted
Posted

Dallas Keuchel - S - Astros

Jon Heyman of Fancred hears that the Reds are "all over" free agent starter Dallas Keuchel.

Heyman notes that it can be difficult to attract big-ticket pitchers to the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park, but he writes that the Reds "seem to have some funds this year, and they are said to love Keuchel." The 30-year-old left-hander posted a 3.74 ERA and 153/38 K/BB ratio over 204 2/3 innings (34 starts) this past season with the Astros. His soft-contact and groundball-based approach to getting outs would suit the environment in Cincinnati.

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