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2018-2019 Astros Offseason Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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Planet Houston
Planet Houston

Well, it just wasn't in the cards this year.  A combination of great play by the BoSox, the injury bug, inopportune cold streaks and inability to put batters away with 2 outs resulted in an early exit

Seasick Sailor
Seasick Sailor

Thanks for the memories:

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

am i the only one having trouble understanding wtf this means?

henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

Posted
Posted

i saw the interview, and he was actually pretty normal re: bregman, charity, etc.

but until the ink is dry on a kluber trade, that kind of tweet is fucking retarded.  maybe link some random metric used, some list, some article?  or at the very least refer to him as "klu-bot" or throw an emoji or two into the tweet so people know that you're not a god damn sociopath.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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10 hours ago, Scraps said:

Well the Mariners will suck next year. I doubt the As maintain what they did this past season, Angels gonna angel, and Rangerslulz

 

We should win the division by 20 games

 

 

If the Angels don’t spend the money/prospects to put a contender around Trout for the next 2 seasons they will be the stupidest organization in baseball history.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9376

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Well the Chris Herman’s experiment is over. All other arb-eligible players received offers.

 

Kaplan on roster flexibility concerns.

tl;dr Astros won’t be able to send Marisnick, White or Kemp to the minors after mid-May (unless the player is ok with it)...A trade is coming.

 

 

 

If the Astros had a non-tender candidate other than backup catcher Chris Herrmann, it was Jake Marisnick, the light-hitting but elite-defending outfielder who’s set to go through the salary arbitration process this winter for a third time.

 

But even Marisnick at a projected 2019 salary of $2-plus million is too valuable for the Astros to cut loose for no return, which is why he was included among the 10 arbitration-eligible players they tendered contracts before Friday night’s deadline.

 

Still, Marisnick faces an uncertain future with Houston. He’s on pace to reach his fifth year of major league service time 40 days into next season, a benchmark that affords players the right to decline an option to the minor leagues. That alone, of course, isn’t enough of a reason for the Astros to cut bait. But complicating matters is that two other part-time players, first baseman Tyler White and outfielder Tony Kemp, will be out of minor league options in 2019, a dynamic that raises the question of whether the three can coexist on the same roster or if one will be the victim of a roster crunch before opening day.

 

This lack of 25-man roster flexibility with their bench will be compounded if the Astros acquire a left-handed hitting outfielder or designated hitter this offseason to complement their right-handed heavy lineup, which at this point appears to be No. 3 on their priority list behind adding a middle-of-the-rotation arm and a starting catcher. They typically carry only 12 position players, and a roster with Marisnick, Kemp and White would leave them without the ability to option any bench players to Triple A from roughly early May on.

 

Working under the assumption they indeed sign or trade for a No. 1 catcher this offseason, here’s how their position player group would look.

 

Catchers

A catcher yet to be acquired

Max Stassi

 

Infielders

José Altuve

Carlos Correa

Alex Bregman

Yuli Gurriel

Aledmys Díaz

Tyler White

 

Outfielders

George Springer

Josh Reddick

Tony Kemp

Jake Marisnick

 

Díaz might also play some left field, but this list doesn’t account for the potential that any of outfielders Kyle Tucker, Myles Straw, Derek Fisher or Yordan Alvarez forces his way to the majors from Triple A during the season. Maybe in life after super utility man Marwin González the Astros will consider carrying 13 position players, but even then if they acquire an established LF/DH-type bat their flexibility would be very limited.

 

Marisnick, Kemp and White each bring different skill sets to the table. Marisnick can’t be counted on for much offense but usually provides 1.0 to 2.0 WAR behind his defense and baserunning. Kemp’s plate discipline and contact-oriented approach can make him a spark at the bottom of a lineup from the left side. White was a force as the Astros’ DH for most of the second half of last season before regressing in the playoffs.

 

Of the three, Marisnick seems the most expendable to the Astros mostly because they have a ready replacement in Straw. Though not of Marisnick’s caliber in center field, Straw’s considered a strong defender in all three outfield spots in his own right. He lacks power at the plate like Marisnick has but runs with elite speed, as demonstrated by his minor league-best 70 stolen bases last year. And most relevantly to the topic at hand, he can be shuttled to and from Triple A next season and in two subsequent seasons.

 

Marisnick, projected by MLBTradeRumors.com to make $2.4 in the arbitration process and under club control through the 2020 season, is coming off a year in which he batted just .211/.275/.399 in only 235 plate appearances. The Astros optioned him to Triple A three separate times, the first for performance reasons but the latter two for his roster spot.

 

Straw, a rookie who would make the major league minimum, debuted for the Astros last September and made their ALDS roster as a pinch-running specialist. He batted .327/.414/.390 in Double A to begin last season but struggled offensively after a June promotion to Triple A (.257/.349/.317).

 

Considering their roster, it’s not difficult to envision Marisnick as a complementary piece as part of a larger trade the Astros make this offseason. They also could opt to hold on to all three of Marisnick, Kemp and White through spring training and even into the regular season until they absolutely need the roster spot.

 

The Astros eliminated a future decision Friday night with their non-tender of Herrmann, with whom they failed to come to a pre-tender deadline agreement at a salary below what he’s projected to earn through the arbitration process. (MLBTradeRumors pegged it at $1.5 million.) Herrmann, who had been expected to compete with Stassi in spring training for their backup catcher spot, is now a free agent while the Astros are down to Stassi and Garrett Stubbs as the only catchers on their 40-man roster. Stubbs, who has all three of his option years remaining, is expected to begin next season back in Triple A as depth.

 

 

 

 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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justin bour had a really nice trajectory from 15-17, and wouldn't seem to belong on this list.  but last year was a total mess for him.  avg down 60 points, power down, k's up.  i wonder what the right change of scenery would do for him, or just being surrounded by actual mlb players.

would be better if he was 27 instead of 30, but here we are.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9376

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Good Q&A from Kaplan today

Get that Athletic subscription on your Christmas list if not already on there

On the transaction front, it’s been a relatively quiet first month of the offseason for the Astros.

Their only notable moves thus far surrounded last month’s Rule 5 protection deadline, when they dealt right-hander Trent Thornton to the Blue Jays for their new utility man, Aledmys Díaz, and added to their 40-man roster catcher Garrett Stubbs and right-handers Rogelio Armenteros and Bryan Abreu.

That means their biggest needs remain unfilled: a starting pitcher to slot into the rotation behind Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, a starting catcher and a left-handed LF/DH-type bat to balance their right-handed heavy lineup.

Perhaps they will swing a deal to fill at least one of these voids by the end of next week’s winter meetings in Las Vegas. But in the meantime, let’s answer some reader questions.

Hey Jake. Your prediction for starting rotation next year is Verlander, Cole and…..? — Kunwar S.

As of today, barring an injury, here’s my prediction for the Astros’ opening day rotation:

Justin Verlander
Gerrit Cole
A pitcher yet to be acquired (Nathan Eovaldi? Charlie Morton? J.A. Happ?)
Collin McHugh
Josh James

It would be surprising if the Astros didn’t sign or trade for a starter to slide into that No. 3 spot by offseason’s end. It might even be their top priority ahead of finding a primary catcher. Acquiring another arm would allow them to use swingman Brad Peacock in relief and keep the likes of Framber Valdez, Cionel Perez and Armenteros in Triple A to begin the season as rotation depth.

Adding another starter would also buy more development time for the Astros’ best pitching prospects, Forrest Whitley, Corbin Martin and J.B. Bukauskas, each of whom could debut at some point in 2019. Verlander, Cole and McHugh will be free agents after next season, so this year could represent a passing of the torch in Houston’s rotation.

Is Forrest Whitley the real deal? Does he join the team full time next spring? — Quinn D.

Anointing a player as a future star before he’s reached even Triple A, let alone the majors, is dangerous, but scouts around the game have raved about Whitley as a potential ace for two years now.

The 6-foot-7 right-hander has five weapons with which he can get hitters out: a high-spin four-seam fastball that usually ranges from 93 to 97 mph, an 83-to-85 mph changeup he uses against both lefties and righties, a hard cutter (89 to 91 mph), a 12-6 curveball (low 80s) and a power slider (mid 80s).

Whitley, 21, should participate in his first major league spring training in February, but the likeliest scenario has him beginning the regular season in Triple A. The Astros gain an extra year of club control by waiting at least a few weeks into the season to call him up and they will probably also want to manage his innings so he’s available in September and October, when the stakes are highest.

Whitley also was so limited last season by the 50-game suspension and the lat and oblique injuries, so he probably would benefit from facing hitters in the offense-friendly Pacific Coast League. But something probably went wrong if he’s not starting games for the Astros by the All-Star break.

What’s your take on the relative silence of the Astros brass so far? Are we to expect another potential blockbuster trade of the Verlander or Cole flavor this offseason? And what makes Tucker so untouchable? I understand the reluctance to trade an arm like Forrest Whitley, but why is Tucker so golden? I recognize his limitless potential, but he wasn’t overly impressive either during his time in Houston. And I’m a little worred about the catching for next year. Is Realmuto a realistic option, if the team refuses to part with either Whitley or Tucker? — George P.

I think this pace is probably the new normal for Astros offseasons. When you look back at their last few winters, 2017 is the clear outlier. They were so aggressive that year in signing Josh Reddick, Charlie Morton, Carlos Beltran and trading for Brian McCann that their opening day roster was complete by the start of the winter meetings. The patient approach we’ve seen in the two years since is more their style. They seem to like to wait out the market in an effort to make deals at the best possible prices.

Another high-profile trade like their deal for Cole last January is certainly possible given their strong farm system, but I wouldn’t necessarily expect one. President of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow has stated publicly he won’t trade Whitley, and I’d be surprised if he moved Tucker and his six years of club control as part of a trade for a big-name player with only one or two years of control. It’s the potential value Tucker could provide over those six seasons that they don’t want to give up.

Tucker was overmatched in his first exposure to major league pitching yet is still young (he turns 22 in January) and mere months removed from being considered a top-10 industry prospect. The Astros have long been very high on his future, and I doubt an underwhelming 64 at-bat sample will sway their opinion much at all.

As for J.T Realmuto, I’m not sure how realistic an option he is unless the Astros are willing to include Whitley or Tucker (if they didn’t last winter why would they this winter, when Realmuto has one fewer year of control?) or the Marlins’ price drops. The Astros might prefer to keep their prospects and address their void at catcher via the free-agent market.

With non-tendering Herrmann, is Luhnow farther along on a trade or free agent signing for a catcher? Who and when will the first large free agent contract be signed and the dominoes fall? — Greg G.

I don’t believe the Astros’ non-tendering of Chris Herrmann was an indication of anything more than the fact they couldn’t come to a pre-tender deadline agreement at a salary they liked. (MLBTradeRumors.com projected Herrmann to make $1.5 million in the arbitration process.) If tendered a deal, he would’ve competed with Max Stassi for their backup spot.

Most of the same names mentioned in this story from the start of the offseason about potential catching targets are still available on the free-agent market: Martín Maldonado, Yasmani Grandal, Wilson Ramos, Robinson Chirinos.

As for the first big free-agent domino to fall, I’d guess a vast majority of the pitchers are waiting on Patrick Corbin and many of the position players on Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Corbin reportedly visited a few teams in the Northeast last week, so perhaps he will be first.

With Yan Gomes with the Nationals, the asking price on JT Realmuto way too high, and Garrett Stubbs added to the 40-man roster, which free agent pickup is more realistic: a higher-profile signing in Wilson Ramos or a reunion with Machete? 2. With Avisail Garcia freshly non-tendered, could he be a buy-low depth piece for the Astros given their previous interest in him? 3. What percent chance would you give the Astros signing Nate Eovaldi and why? — Elliott J.

I’ve felt from the beginning of the offseason that a reunion with Maldonado was maybe the most likely route for the Astros to go at catcher. They were really high on him in his partial 2018 with them despite his strange blocking lapses in the ALCS.

As for Avisail Garcia, they are probably shooting higher in a potential corner outfield acquisition. Garcia produced at a below-average level for the White Sox last year. He also bats from the right side, and if anything the Astros need a left-handed hitter to balance out their bevy of righties.

Any percent chance I gave you on Eovaldi would be a flat-out guess, especially considering the strength of his market. It would be very interesting if it came down to the Red Sox versus the Astros battling for his services, though.

Thoughts on Verlander re-signing with the Astros? Whether he does or doesn’t, how many years do you think he has left before riding off in the sunset? — Joseph A.

Until the Luhnow era Astros invest in a long-term free-agent starting pitcher contract, I’m going to continue to expect their starting pitchers will get more money on the open market from one of the other 29 teams. The $30 million over three years they gave Scott Feldman in 2014 remains the largest sum they’ve spent on a starting pitcher in free agency. It’s a strategy that’s worked for them thus far given the risk involved in big-money starter deals and because of the depth of their system.

Verlander might be a unique case because of his age. But considering he had a Cy Young Award-caliber season in his age-35 campaign, he very well could pitch into his 40s. His free agency will be a fascinating one.

Aside from Patrick Corbin, could you make a case for James/Valdez being better than all other available FA pitchers? Too early? — Ben A.

You couldn’t make a case right now that James and Valdez are better than the non-Corbin free-agent starters, but you could make the case the potential difference between James/Valdez and the second tier of free agents isn’t worth the acquisition cost for the Astros. James, in particular, has a lot of upside. Is it possible he gives Houston in 2019 the same type of season Morton could? Sure. But there’s also a chance James turns out to be a reliever.

As stated above, I expect the Astros will acquire a starter this offseason. But the emergence of the likes of James and Valdez will probably deter them from pursuing two starters as they might have had to otherwise.

Is there anyone on other teams’ non-tender scrap heap that Luhnow might bring in on an NRI? — Ben A.

No one to me jumped out as an obvious target, but the Astros certainly could try to buy low on a player who was recently non-tendered. They had success with that last year in the case of Héctor Rondón, who signed for two years and $8.5 million after he was cut loose by the Cubs. As for non-roster invitees, the Astros typically limit their minor league free-agent signings, maybe more so than any other team. Generally their non-roster invitees are made up almost exclusively of players already in their organization.

 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14468

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He played in too many games last year. Chirinos and Stassi/Stubbs should each play around 80 games. Chirinos balled out in 88 games with Rangers in 2017.

The Braves had an effective platoon last year split between Suzuki and Flowers, with each guy getting 2-3 games a week.

A 1 year deal for Chirinos is much better than trading for Realmuto or giving Ramos a multi year deal.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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8 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

He played in too many games last year. Chirinos and Stassi/Stubbs should each play around 80 games. Chirinos balled out in 88 games with Rangers in 2017.

The Braves had an effective platoon last year split between Suzuki and Flowers, with each guy getting 2-3 games a week.

A 1 year deal for Chirinos is much better than trading for Realmuto or giving Ramos a multi year deal.

Depends on the cost and what other moves they make.  Would much rather have Ramos at $30M/3yr than Chirinos at $4M/1yr.  Chirinos isn’t bad if he’s hitting 9th.

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