2018-2019 Astros Offseason Thread

[Jshep34 2,308]

Tear it down and start over. 

Sucks but seriously all the best to CfM and McCann. Dudes helped bring a title to Houston.  

[runthebone 7,967]

Thanks, CFM.  I guess they figured they got the two best and healthiest years of his career already.  

[Storm the Field 5,294]

I'm happy for CFM and will always love him as a player for what he provided us the last 2 seasons, but I have a pretty strong feeling that Tampa is not gonna get anything close to 2 full seasons of starts out of him.

You don't hit 35 and almost retire due to health issues then come back and produce at full-strength for 300+ more innings.

[Guadaloopy 10,960]

That's exactly the deal I predicted for CFM, just with the wrong team.  That's 60% of last year's rotation gone.  Luhnow has to have something up his sleeve.  Please.

[David Dennison 18,853]

28 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

I'm happy for CFM and will always love him as a player for what he provided us the last 2 seasons, but I have a pretty strong feeling that Tampa is not gonna get anything close to 2 full seasons of starts out of him.

You don't hit 35 and almost retire due to health issues then come back and produce at full-strength for 300+ more innings.

Yep. It sucks, but I'm pretty sure the Astros think he's done after the way he finished last season.

Wish him well, but he's very old in the world of professional sports. Same with Brian McCann.

[David Dennison 18,853]

1 hour ago, Seasick Sailor said:

So right now our rotation is JV, Cole, McHugh, Peacock, and Valdez/James?

That's not what it's going to be on opening day. 

[Fozzz 152]

They will surely acquire at least one SP.  Peacock will remain in the pen along with Valdez. I am not very high on Valdez as a SP but he reminds me a little of Britton as a reliever.

[ImGolfn 77]

Im actually worried about starting pitching now.  I get the decisions behind Keuchel and Morton but with Lance out also thats 3/5 of last years starters and not a single replacement yet

[Rimbo 25,917]

3 hours ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Please no. Losing Charlie would hurt on many levels.

Love that guy. I gotta say, with baseball more than any sport, I definitely like a lot of players, no matter what team they're on. Valbuena (RIP) was one of 'em, CFM's one of 'em.

[formermav43 4,606]

47 minutes ago, ImGolfn said:

Im actually worried about starting pitching now.  I get the decisions behind Keuchel and Morton but with Lance out also thats 3/5 of last years starters and not a single replacement yet

McHugh. That’s one.

And a move is coming. The Cole trade was in January.

Relax.

[David Dennison 18,853]

1 hour ago, ImGolfn said:

Im actually worried about starting pitching now.  I get the decisions behind Keuchel and Morton but with Lance out also thats 3/5 of last years starters and not a single replacement yet

You shouldn't worry. At all.

[UTexasFight 9,431]

Cole vs CFM game 2 of the season is going to be weird.

...Unless, of course, the Rays plan to use the Astros Game 7 approach and have an opener go with CFM coming in the 4th inning (only half joking)

[Mez2 4,023]

Luhnow is big game hunting, did it with verlander, cole, and almost Harper. 

I'm guesing/hoping its greinke but.wouldn't be surprised to see Thor. Those teams shouldn't have any problems dealing to an AL team. I haven't seen our latest payroll standing, maybe $125-130 million. That's plenty of room to get a top tier arm and still be able to sign a high quality FA(s).  This is our last year of JV and GC is also a free agent after the season, so no way do we stand pat. Just my thoughts, until we get nothing and I hate baseball again

[Scraps 13,561]

Charlies deal:

Per source, $15M vesting option in Charlie Morton’s two-year, $30M deal with #Rays works like this: If Morton on DL for more than 200 days in first two years, option drops to $1M. If 30 days or less, he gets full $15M, scaling down to $10M, $5M, $3M, $1M based upon days missed.

[UTexasFight 9,431]

Charlies deal:

Per source, $15M vesting option in Charlie Morton’s two-year, $30M deal with #Rays works like this: If Morton on DL for more than 200 days in first two years, option drops to $1M. If 30 days or less, he gets full $15M, scaling down to $10M, $5M, $3M, $1M based upon days missed.

Eeeesh.
He’ll hit 30 days on the DL by the All Star Break just through normal front office use of 10 day “skip-a-start” DL stints

[UTexasFight 9,431]

Kaplan on Whitley and the rotation.
Luhnow makes it sound he’s not concerned about the rotation this year or next... which means we’re probably getting Thor soon

The Astros’ hopes to repeat as World Series champions had not yet died when the first text message flashed across A.J. Hinch’s cell phone. It came from a scout friend of the manager’s who was covering a game in Arizona. The 2018 version of the prospect-laden fall league was mere innings old.

I have your starter for Sunday if you need one.

Forrest Whitley terrorized the opposition in his Arizona Fall League debut that early October evening, striking out the first seven batters he faced and eight of the first nine. Baseball’s top pitching prospect and his five-pitch arsenal of weapons continued to elicit rave reviews throughout the fall, a prelude to the hype that will follow him come February in his first major league spring training.

“(His) stuff is elite across the board,” Hinch said this week at baseball’s winter meetings at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino. “He’s got size. He’s got quick twitch. He’s got arm speed. He’s got some feel for pitching. There’s not a compliment that I didn’t get from a scout or an executive or a coach or somebody that went and saw him pitch.”

The hype has built since Whitley’s first full professional season in 2017, when only a year removed from graduating Alamo Heights High in San Antonio he pitched his way to Double A. The right-hander stands 6-foot-7 and 225 pounds, throws his fastball in the mid-90s on average and on his best days can induce swings and misses with any of his secondary pitches.

Yet as his expected debut year looms, one number on his Baseball Reference page stands out even more than his 13.2 strikeouts per nine across his three years as a professional: 163.1, his cumulative innings count.

If he advances as anticipated, the Astros will unquestionably have to manage Whitley’s innings next season to have him available when the stakes are highest in September and October. He is only 21, has yet to eclipse even 100 innings in a season and logged merely 52 1/3 innings last year between Double A and the AFL because of his 50-game ban and lat and oblique injuries.

But team officials say they aren’t overly concerned about a potential significant spike in workload. Whitley’s official 2018 innings count, Astros president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow pointed out, doesn’t account for the innings he accumulated in extended spring training games last April and May while serving his suspension for an undisclosed violation of minor league baseball’s drug prevention and treatment program.

“We’re not that worried about a massive jump, and we’ll manage his innings in a way that will allow us, if everything goes well, to use him late in the season and into the postseason,” Luhnow said.

Though Luhnow in his comments to reporters this week didn’t rule out Whitley making the opening day roster, there’s no chance the Astros will cost themselves a year of club control down the road for a few weeks of major league time in 2019. Whitley beginning the season in the minors, likely in Triple A, will also make it easier for them to manage his innings, perhaps by spacing out his starts or limiting how deep he pitches into games.

But the Astros are operating this offseason as if both Whitley and fellow prospect Corbin Martin will start games for them at some point next season. Their rise coupled with those of Josh James and Framber Valdez have made it so they feel they need to acquire only one starting pitcher this offseason despite losing Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency and Lance McCullers Jr. to Tommy John surgery. Collin McHugh will move from the bullpen back to the rotation.

Between Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and McHugh, the Astros will have three starters in 2019 pitching in their final seasons before free agency. McCullers is expected to be back in 2020 to rejoin a rotation that by then could have experienced a changing of the guard.

“We are looking at both short- and medium-term deals for pitchers,” Luhnow said. “That being said, I think a year from now we’ll know a lot more about Corbin Martin, we’ll know a lot more about Forrest Whitley and we’ll have a better sense on James and Valdez and it could be that we don’t have an issue a year from now. If those three starters were free agents right now, I’d be nervous about replacing them with those guys. But a year from now I think we’re going to have a lot better information.”

Especially about Whitley, who will be exposed to major league life for the first time next spring training. Come February, Hinch will no longer have to rely on reviews from other evaluators.

“I look forward to his first big league camp because we haven’t totally gotten our hands on him as a major league staff yet,” Hinch said. “But I hear he’s pretty good.”

 

[Guadaloopy 10,960]

10 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

Kaplan on Whitley and the rotation.
Luhnow makes it sound he’s not concerned about the rotation this year or next... which means we’re probably getting Thor soon

[Hank Chinaski 6,314]

12 hours ago, Mez2 said:

Luhnow is big game hunting, did it with verlander, cole, and almost Harper. 

I'm guesing/hoping its greinke but.wouldn't be surprised to see Thor. Those teams shouldn't have any problems dealing to an AL team. I haven't seen our latest payroll standing, maybe $125-130 million. That's plenty of room to get a top tier arm and still be able to sign a high quality FA(s).  This is our last year of JV and GC is also a free agent after the season, so no way do we stand pat. Just my thoughts, until we get nothing and I hate baseball again

I still have a hard time seeing the Mets deal Syndergaard, given that they've apparently gone into win-now mode. But they're the Mets, so who knows. 

Greinke makes a lot of sense to me - he can probably be had for moderate prospects (if we take most/all of the contract); and he has 3 more years, which is important since we may lose all of Verlander/Cole/McHugh after 2019...Greinke could at least anchor the rotation as guys like Whitley, Bukauskas and others become established. 

[runthebone 7,967]

https://www.azsnakepit.com/2018/12/12/18137309/2018-diamondback-season-reviews-5-zack-greinke

 

Spoiler

Arizona’s ace put together a valiant effort, even if it wasn’t enough to get the team to the Promised Land
By Imstillhungry95@imstillhungry95  Dec 12, 2018, 10:00pm EST

2017 Rating: 8.72

2018 Rating: 8.04

2018 Performance: 33 starts, 207.2 IP, 3.21 ERA/135 ERA+, 3.70 FIP, 4.2 bWAR, 3.5 fWAR

2018 Salary: $34 Million

2019 Status: Signed through the 2021 season, owed $34.5 million next season

Zack Greinke is arguably one of the best pitchers to ever wear either the Teal and Purple or the Sedona Red. Zack Greinke is also paid like he is one of the best pitchers to ever wear either of those colors. This fact causes much consternation among a very vocal group of fans, and it has lead to many debates on this fine site of ours and will only lead to more as we continue through this Offseason of Uncertainty.

I believe he was worth it, and Exhibit A is the fact he is ranked number five on our season ranking. Beyond that, he was a well above average anchor for a starting rotation that desperately needed it at a price that wasn’t too far off of what I suspect would be market value for him right now.

The month of April, including a single game in March, was wildly inconsistent. Three of his starts he gave up two runs or less. In his other three starts, he gave up no less than four. As we all know, the team worked around that, going on to put together one of the best months in franchise history.

After that rocky start to the season, he started to look more and more like the Greinke that we were all were excited to have join the team when he was signed back in the offseason of 2015 and the Greinke we grew accustomed too in 2017. He strung together three straight starts where he only gave up one run, and though that was followed by a less than stellar four run outing, he finished the month with another strong outing, bringing his ERA for the season down to a respectable 3.65.

He continued that trend of lowering his ERA even further over the next couple months of the season, consistently going out, keeping the opposing teams in check, and giving the Diamondbacks a chance to win, even if they failed to capitalize on that with any regularity. He reached a season low 2.93 on August 26th, which also coincided with approximately the last time I thought the Diamondbacks had a real shot at winning the division.

Going hand in hand with his run prevention is how many innings he did it over. He only had two starts that went less than five full innings, and he only had five more that went less than six, for an average of 6.1 IP per start. In a season where the bullpen’s exhaustion played a huge roll in the final outcome, you simply can’t overstate the importance of the consistency he brought to the mound every five days. That’s one of the key rolls of a TOR pitcher. They have to be able to go out there every start and give every aspect of the team the best shot at success, including taking pressure off of the bullpen as much as possible. Greinke did just that.

The outlook for his 2019 season is both clear and murky. It seems reasonable to expect roughly the same output and results from him next season, barring injury. While a decline could be expected given his age, nothing has really indicated that’s coming, as he once again stayed right around his career norms in almost every statistic. Reasonably, he should be right about the same next year, as long as he continues to be able to work around his decrease velocity on the fastball.

What’s murky, however, is what team he will be doing it for. Much like Paul Goldschmidt before him, rumors have been swirling all off season that Hazen and Co. are interested in the possibility of shipping him and a large portion of his salary off to a contending team that can put him to better use in exchange for more years of control, hopefully shoring the team for a future window of contention. What happens, no one can say for sure, but it seems reasonable to assume that the fate of Greinke will determine once and for all the path this offseason is going to take.

 

[Mo Horn 8,832]

Riley Farrell taken by Seattle in the Rule 5 draft. Andrew Ferguson taken by the Giants. We chose Alejandro Flores, catcher, from the Nationals in the AAA portion. 

[WBT 20,561]

Sucks about Ferrell.  I think he can be a decent reliever starting next year and should have no problems sticking with Miami.

Ferguson was the Giants 2nd pick and they were the only team to take 2 guys.  Who knows if they will actually try to carry both on the 25 man.

[henrygandorf 29,189]

the following factors...

-our division is getting weaker (led by the m's)

-ditto the al central (assuming cleve keeps selling off/doesn't resign some of their key fa)

-al east is getting stronger (led by tb)

...tell me that we're not worried about winning 95+ and running away with the division (and hopefully the 2 seed again).  we also have a lot of young talent and it seems like we want to see where we stand with all of them.  we have 3-4+ guys who have torn up the minors and nobody really knows how they'll do.

if this is our line of thinking, we might be holding tight and waiting for july.  it sucks, but it wouldn't surprise me, as all the pieces seem to be lining up that way.  honestly, if we were to make a trade for greinke, especially one involving money, it would seem to make more sense in july, since we won't really need him until then anyway.

[Scraps 13,561]

This dude went 6-15 for the Stros one year. Good lord.

J.A. Happ: 17M in 2019, 17M in 2020, 17M vesting option in 2021. 34M guaranteed. #yanks

[Fozzz 152]

Ferrell could be a decent reliever but I’m not that broken up over losing him. I’m just glad they protected Aubreu, whom, imo, has a lot more upside. 

[huge 3,793]

20 minutes ago, Scraps said:

This dude went 6-15 for the Stros one year. Good lord.

J.A. Happ: 17M in 2019, 17M in 2020, 17M vesting option in 2021. 34M guaranteed. #yanks

Plenty of guys have eaten shit for bad teams and ended up effective later.

That deal is not ridiculous.

He was 7-0 with a 2.69era with them last year.  Obviously a small sample size but we would have killed for that in the pennant race.

Edited December 13, 2018 by huge

[Amos Moses 795]

34 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

the following factors...

-our division is getting weaker (led by the m's)

-ditto the al central (assuming cleve keeps selling off/doesn't resign some of their key fa)

-al east is getting stronger (led by tb)

...tell me that we're not worried about winning 95+ and running away with the division (and hopefully the 2 seed again).  we also have a lot of young talent and it seems like we want to see where we stand with all of them.  we have 3-4+ guys who have torn up the minors and nobody really knows how they'll do.

if this is our line of thinking, we might be holding tight and waiting for july.  it sucks, but it wouldn't surprise me, as all the pieces seem to be lining up that way.  honestly, if we were to make a trade for greinke, especially one involving money, it would seem to make more sense in july, since we won't really need him until then anyway.

Good post.

I've been wondering how the Astros will start to view what to do with all the young talent.  Some of these guys are at the point that it's time to move on (preferably by trade for proven commodities) if they're not going to be consistent contributors at the big league level.   It's a good problem to have.

[Guadaloopy 10,960]

4 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

the following factors...

-our division is getting weaker (led by the m's)

-ditto the al central (assuming cleve keeps selling off/doesn't resign some of their key fa)

-al east is getting stronger (led by tb)

...tell me that we're not worried about winning 95+ and running away with the division (and hopefully the 2 seed again).  we also have a lot of young talent and it seems like we want to see where we stand with all of them.  we have 3-4+ guys who have torn up the minors and nobody really knows how they'll do.

if this is our line of thinking, we might be holding tight and waiting for july.  it sucks, but it wouldn't surprise me, as all the pieces seem to be lining up that way.  honestly, if we were to make a trade for greinke, especially one involving money, it would seem to make more sense in july, since we won't really need him until then anyway.

Yep... it's easy to forget what this team still has coming back next year.  A surgically repaired Altuve with an off-season of healing.  A fully healed Correa who hopefully has a spark after a sub-par year.  The fifth place vote-getter for AL MVP in Bregman.  The AL Cy Young runner-up in Verlander and the fifth place Cy Young vote-getter in Cole.  If Correa gets back to 2015-2017 form and Tucker has a breakthrough year and Springer bounces back from the lowest OPS of his career, the lineup gets a lot longer really quickly.  If the first five in the lineup are mashing, it makes Reddick and Gurriel much more effective.  Diaz and Kemp aren't easy outs.  Catcher is still a bit of a hole, but that's the case for almost every contender.  The bullpen is there, and there are options available for the rotation.  

It's still a damn good team with a lot of up and comers ready to make a name for themselves.  

[David Dennison 18,853]

2 hours ago, Guadaloopy said:

Yep... it's easy to forget what this team still has coming back next year.  A surgically repaired Altuve with an off-season of healing.  A fully healed Correa who hopefully has a spark after a sub-par year.  The fifth place vote-getter for AL MVP in Bregman.  The AL Cy Young runner-up in Verlander and the fifth place Cy Young vote-getter in Cole.  If Correa gets back to 2015-2017 form and Tucker has a breakthrough year and Springer bounces back from the lowest OPS of his career, the lineup gets a lot longer really quickly.  If the first five in the lineup are mashing, it makes Reddick and Gurriel much more effective.  Diaz and Kemp aren't easy outs.  Catcher is still a bit of a hole, but that's the case for almost every contender.  The bullpen is there, and there are options available for the rotation.  

It's still a damn good team with a lot of up and comers ready to make a name for themselves.  

The Astros are one of the two best teams in the American League, even without Keuchel, Morton, and Gonzalez.

[Snake Diggity 4,621]

13 hours ago, David Dennison said:

The Astros are one of the two best teams in the American League, even without Keuchel, Morton, and Gonzalez.

Currently the Red Sox are significantly better than the Astros, and the Yankees are roughly equal.  But the Yankees are almost certainly going to improve significantly between now and opening day, so if Houston stands pat they will be the 3rd best team with a significant gap.  That said, I expect them to make at least 2 significant moves and be roughly on par with the Yankees and Sox by opening day.

[Fozzz 152]

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Currently the Red Sox are significantly better than the Astros, and the Yankees are roughly equal.  But the Yankees are almost certainly going to improve significantly between now and opening day, so if Houston stands pat they will be the 3rd best team with a significant gap.  That said, I expect them to make at least 2 significant moves and be roughly on par with the Yankees and Sox by opening day.

Astros are also have 10 more projected WAR than the next AL West team.  

[Mez2 4,023]

We won't face anyone in our division in the playoffs next year 

 

HOU, BOS, CLE, NY after that's it a toss up but none of them will have a better roster than these guys above, maybe CLE

[Johnny Sack 8,397]

We can wait to make moves until trade deadline if need be.  Sometimes the best move is no move.  

[henrygandorf 29,189]

On 12/14/2018 at 8:39 AM, Snake Diggity said:

Currently the Red Sox are significantly better than the Astros, and the Yankees are roughly equal.  But the Yankees are almost certainly going to improve significantly between now and opening day, so if Houston stands pat they will be the 3rd best team with a significant gap.  That said, I expect them to make at least 2 significant moves and be roughly on par with the Yankees and Sox by opening day.

it doesn't matter if the entire al east is better than the astros.  just like last year, this is about finishing ahead of cleveland and getting the 2 seed (at worst).  that is still the goal.

[Scraps 13,561]

One of my guys is close it looks. From Rosenthal

Astros closing in on free-agent outfielder Michael Brantley, sources tell The Athletic. Rival executives expect deal to be in two-year, $32M range

[Mitch Hedberg 2,090]

6 minutes ago, Scraps said:

One of my guys is close it looks. From Rosenthal

Astros closing in on free-agent outfielder Michael Brantley, sources tell The Athletic. Rival executives expect deal to be in two-year, $32M range

Looks like just need to dot the I's and cross the Ts. I'm down. 

Edited December 18, 2018 by Mitch Hedberg

[Scraps 13,561]

Cruz come on down

[Horny Bull 2,759]

 

[David Dennison 18,853]

Giddy up!

[henrygandorf 29,189]

wondering how this plays into the ideas that we might be phasing reddick out + having yuli be more of a utility guy + whether we'll go after a full time dh.  it'll affect tucker as well.  once the brantley working out at 1b story was out there, i felt like we could be the landing spot.

[henrygandorf 29,189]

i didn't realize his 3.8war (br) last year was 2nd highest of his career.  hope he can stay healthy.

[TonyTexas 10,510]

Excellent contact hitter. 2nd best strikeout % in league at 9.5% and 3rd best whiff at 11%. Needed that lefty bat.

[Pimphand 5,735]

3 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

it doesn't matter if the entire al east is better than the astros.  just like last year, this is about finishing ahead of cleveland and getting the 2 seed (at worst).  that is still the goal.

This. The goal is the 2nd best record in the league and let the AL East cannibalize itself to reach the ALCS.

Brantley is a good pickup if he can stay healthy that combine with Whitley & Tucker being contributors and perhaps a catcher and DH and we should be good to go.

[tx 3 putt 76,895]

Solid pick up, I like this move 

[RegularSizedRudy 36]

[Seasick Sailor 3,747]

 

[Seasick Sailor 3,747]

Michael Brantley is Good and on the Astros Now

By Jeff Sullivan

Last year, in all of baseball, the lowest team strikeout rate was 18.7%, and it belonged to the Indians. This is considering only non-pitchers, so as to put the National League on the same level as the American League. Projections, as you know, are by their very nature conservative. And now the 2019 Astros project for a team strikeout rate of 18.4%.

Last year, in all of baseball, the highest team wRC+ was 118, and it belonged to the Dodgers. The second-highest team wRC+ was 111, and it belonged to three different ballclubs. This is considering only non-pitchers, so as to put the NL on the same level as the AL. Projections, as you know, are by their very nature conservative. And now the 2019 Astros project for a team wRC+ of 115.

 

This is where the Astros stand after having come to a two-year agreement with free-agent Michael Brantley, worth $32 million. It’s not yet official-official, and I guess there’s some chance it all blows up, but I wouldn’t count on that happening. Brantley is good, and he’ll be the Astros’ newest regular.

 

From the Indians’ side, this might be doubly painful. Brantley was a big reason why the 2018 Indians hit, and why they seldom struck out, and now he’s gone, joining another AL rival. The Indians didn’t extend Brantley a qualifying offer, citing payroll concerns, so there’s no compensation going back, and the Indians are also presently looking for outfield help as they try to round out their roster on a budget. It’s true that $32 million for the Astros isn’t the same as $32 million for the Indians, but the Indians could use a player like Michael Brantley. That specific player is no longer on the market.

For Brantley, 2018 was a critical season. Some players get labeled as health risks for reasons that aren’t very fair. The reasons were fair, in Brantley’s case. He needed ankle surgery following an injury in 2017. Before that, he needed a pair of shoulder surgeries, which limited him to 11 games in 2016. This past year, however, Brantley batted 631 times, and he posted a 124 wRC+ with a line that looked like what he did in his prime. He even stole a dozen bases while playing most of the time in left field. Back when Brantley’s shoulder wasn’t right, I’d been told it was “shredded,” and it wasn’t clear whether he’d ever be the same guy. Brantley now resembles the same guy, only with a few extra scars.

 

Brantley’s game isn’t showcasing upper-deck power. Rather, he’s one of the game’s premier contact hitters, and he’ll clear the fence when he gets it just so. Here’s a plot covering five seasons, showing isolated power on the y-axis, and strikeout rate on the x. Brantley is the point in yellow.

This next plot looks a lot like that one, except that this one is forward-looking. Here are all projected regulars and semi-regulars for 2019, expressed through the same statistics:

Brantley, again, isn’t a power hitter, so much as he’s a good hitter who has some power. He has about the same projected isolated power as Adam Jones and Yangervis Solarte, but out of this sample of 338 players, Brantley’s projected strikeout rate ranks fourth-lowest. Yuli Gurriel ranks ninth-lowest. Jose Altuve ranks 15th-lowest, and Alex Bregman ranks 18th-lowest. The Astros have four of the 20 lowest projected strikeout rates, and that’s one way in which Brantley is a fit.

There’s also the fact that Brantley’s left-handed. It remains unclear to me how much it actually matters if a team leans too heavily in one direction, but managers always love balance, and the only other lefty hitters on the Astros are Josh Reddick and Tony Kemp, not counting guys like A.J. Reed, Kyle Tucker, Derek Fisher, and Garrett Stubbs. Don’t get me wrong, they’re all left-handed, too, but none of them are proven, and none of them project to make the opening roster. Those players can’t be taken for granted as the Astros think about 2019.

One thing Brantley isn’t is a premium defensive corner outfielder. According to Statcast’s sprint speed, Brantley was actually the second-slowest sprinter last year, among left fielders. He ranked behind names like Matt Kemp, Rhys Hoskins, and Trey Mancini. On the other hand, the guy in dead-last place was none other than Alex Gordon, who’s been one of the best left fielders in recent history. Brantley isn’t Gordon, but he’s not Kemp or Hoskins, either. Relative to league average, he probably profiles to be a few runs worse. The short left field in Houston could somewhat mitigate things, and so would slotting in every so often at first base and DH. I don’t think the Astros yet know exactly how they’re going to look.

With that in mind, they continue to be linked to Nelson Cruz, even after signing Brantley. And although J.T. Realmuto rumors have generally tried to put him somewhere else, the Astros remain a fit, despite having signed Robinson Chirinos. One thing Brantley does is somewhat close the door on Tucker, who’s one of baseball’s very best outfield prospects. Now, the Astros know that, and the Astros didn’t get to where they are by cashing in all of their long-term potential core players, but if the Astros put Tucker on the table, the Marlins would listen. That would be a little easier to do, compared to a day or two ago.

Or maybe Tucker just eventually bumps Reddick. This can go in a lot of directions. What the Astros have done, by signing Brantley, is add to their impressive pile of talent. The pile provides them with a greater number of options, as they consider the remaining available players.

Michael Brantley is good, and the Astros are better. They got Brantley for less than the Phillies gave to Andrew McCutchen, which might be a deal, or which might be appropriate, given their respective health records. But Brantley is good, and he was healthy throughout 2018. Sometimes making moves doesn’t have to be complicated. Sometimes you just want a good player.

[Mo Horn 8,832]

10 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

One thing Brantley does is somewhat close the door on Tucker, who’s one of baseball’s very best outfield prospects. Now, the Astros know that, and the Astros didn’t get to where they are by cashing in all of their long-term potential core players, but if the Astros put Tucker on the table, the Marlins would listen. That would be a little easier to do, compared to a day or two ago.

Interesting point. Maybe Tucker is able to replace Reddick, which the article also says. It also takes pressure of Tucker to perform now. It will be interesting to see what moves come next. In Luhnow i trust. 

[Hank Chinaski 6,314]

I like it. Brantley is probably the FA best hitter available outside of Harper/Machado. He's missed a lot of time in recent years (but not in 2018), but the guy has always been able to hit (.295/.351/.430 career). 

[Hank Chinaski 6,314]

Keith Law:

Spoiler

The Houston Astros were essentially short one everyday player heading into 2019, with no incumbent in left field or at designated hitter, but has top prospect Kyle Tucker ready to step into a major league role right now -- preferably one that takes advantage of his defensive abilities. Houston's two-year deal with Michael Brantley could complicate them, or precipitate another deal, but if not, he's a solid addition to their lineup as a primary DH who can spot the Astros in left and allow them to shift other players around to get any of the three outfielders a day off.

 

Brantley should be a 3-plus win regular now that he's healthy again, and perhaps hitting regularly as a DH will keep him so. He's exceptionally hard to strike out, which seems like a key skill in our insanely high-strikeout environment, and ties in with how the Astros have done so well the past two years at the plate and even into the postseason. He's capable of playing left field at an average level, but George Springer, Josh Reddick and Tucker all project as above-average or better for the positions they're lined up to play, so Brantley likely would be the odd man out in that alignment. The Astros had some in-house DH options but none who projected to produce close to Brantley's level of offense.

This assumes that the Astros are ready to hand Tucker regular playing time after a huge year as a 21-year-old in Fresno but a disappointing debut in a minuscule sample in the majors (.136/236/.303 in just 72 PA). Tucker is a top-20 prospect in the game, a potential five-tool guy who has shown better defense in pro ball, even in center, than I think anyone anticipated when he was in high school -- certainly better than I expected, and I still had him as the No. 8 prospect in the entire draft when the Astros took him fifth overall. He has power and speed, and his plate discipline has been excellent: he was above the median for regulars in the PCL this year in walk and strikeout rates, even though he was the league's second-youngest position player. He should be one of the AL's best rookies this year if he's handed the job, probably fighting Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr., for Rookie of the Year honors, and if the Astros are willing to give him the left field gig, they could consider their lineup set and focus instead on adding rotation or bullpen depth.

 

[tx 3 putt 76,895]

#Astros agree with LHH Michael Brantley on 2yr deal as first reported by the Athletic’s @Ken_Rosenthal ……that signing should set the stage now for a possible Kyle Tucker to the #Marlins for J.T. Realmuto deal…maybe DH Nelson Cruz and most assuredly a middle of rotation starter 
THIS TWEET IS FROM JIM BOWDEN GM
I put this because I thought it was an interesting take. I would take JT in a hot minute.

 

 

damn interesting