2018-2019 Astros Offseason Thread

[tx 3 putt 78675]

I’d trade tucker for JT 

[formermav43 4625]

No way do I mortgage the future for a marginal upgrade this year and next. Realmuto is a luxury, not a necessity. I wouldn’t do that deal 1 for 1 even.

Edited December 18, 2018 by formermav43

[tx 3 putt 78675]

OF is the easiest position to upgrade 

[formermav43 4625]

The easiest way to upgrade it is to keep your 21 year old with all-star potential whose under team control for the better part of the next decade, sit back, and watch him improve.

[runthebone 8374]

Nice addition.  Don't see how this blocks Tucker, it is a two year deal for a fragile player who might end up at DH or 1B a lot.  And, as mentioned, if Reddick sucks again, there will be plenty of OF ABs. 

[Snake Diggity 4714]

I’m softening on Tucker for Realmuto but 6.5 seasons of Christian Yellich ceiling for 2 seasons of a really good catcher, that’s tough to swallow.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Snake Diggity

[formermav43 4625]

 

5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I’m softening on Tucker for Realmuto but 6.5 seasons of Christian Yellich ceiling for 2 seasons of a really good catcher, that’s tough to swallow.

Especially when you consider the projections. Chirinos/Stassi are projected to combine for about 140 games and put up 2.2 WAR. Realmuto is projected for 3.7 WAR over 130 starts.

Are all those seasons worth a game and a half in 2019?

Edited December 18, 2018 by formermav43

[runthebone 8374]

1 minute ago, formermav43 said:

 

Especially when you consider the projections. Chirinos/Stassi are projected to combine for about 140 games and put up 2.2 WAR. Realmuto is projected for 3.7 WAR over 130 starts.

Are all those seasons worth a game and a half in 2019?

He might project to more in the AL because be could DH, but I still would keep Tucker and offer other prospects.  

[TexArcher 39061]

On 12/12/2018 at 10:00 AM, TexArcher said:

Disagree.  You can't reasonably expect anything more than .250-270 with 20-25 HR and 10 SB at this point.  That can be had for less than $17 million a year.

 

On 12/12/2018 at 10:44 AM, Hank Chinaski said:

Not on the FA market, though. 

Michael Brantley, come on down and hit .295+ with 20 HR and 10 SB for $16 million.

Freaking love this move.

[thetruth 149]

You guys know this shit better than me. How does Lance being out for a year effect his contract? Does it effect his time with the Astros? Do we get a mulligan? 

[patrickdrinksbeer 820]

You guys know this shit better than me. How does Lance being out for a year effect his contract? Does it effect his time with the Astros? Do we get a mulligan? 

he will get full service time credit

[TonyTexas 10753]

No way do I mortgage the future for a marginal upgrade this year and next. Realmuto is a luxury, not a necessity. I wouldn’t do that deal 1 for 1 even.

Marginal upgrade? Have you seen our current catching roster? More like a massive upgrade. With current and future contract situation, I think the next 2 years will be our best bet to win another ring.

 

[formermav43 4625]

3 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Marginal upgrade? Have you seen our current catching roster? More like a massive upgrade.

1.5 WAR. I’d call that marginal, especially considering the division is already a lock. 

 

[UTexasFight 9814]

No way do I mortgage the future for a marginal upgrade this year and next. Realmuto is a luxury, not a necessity. I wouldn’t do that deal 1 for 1 even.

I’m in the camp that thinks trading Tucker for Realmuto would be asinine.

Look, I get the Astros catcher situation is horrible right now. I also get so is just about everyone else’s in the AL. I don’t think the benefits you get in 2019 and 2020 over your AL competition (plus whoever comes out of the NL) at the catcher position by having JT on your team is worth the risk of what Tucker will turn in to.

[At Ease 44]

Plus ones to keeping Tucker and praising this move.

[Fozzz 152]

9 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

I’d trade tucker for JT 

I'd trade him for a SP, but not for JT.  

[Fozzz 152]

7 hours ago, formermav43 said:

1.5 WAR. I’d call that marginal, especially considering the division is already a lock. 

 

If Fangraphs accounted for pitch framing in their catcher defense, I would bet the difference would be greater larger than 1.5 WAR given how much of a better framer JT is than Chirinos (absolutely garbage at framing) and the amount of value that catchers can add through their framing skills.  For example, Realmuto has averaged around 7 runs better/season than Chirinos in BP's FRAA metric, which accounts for framing.  

Still, I don't think it's really worth it given JT's limited control and the glaring need for SP post-2019.  

[Fozzz 152]

I really like this Brantley signing, particularly if it really is for two years and around $32 million.  Not a good defender by any means but an underrated bat.  His xwOBA last season was nearly equal to Bregman's, and higher than anyone else who played significantly for the Astros.

[Scraps 13799]

I'm not trading Tucker.  

We need to get rid of Reddick somehow 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

1 hour ago, Fozzz said:

I'd trade him for a SP, but not for JT.  

This is where I am too. Not sure JT puts us over the top during the next two seasons, but adding a high-end SP with the same or more years of control would not only provide a big boost over the next season, but would give us a bridge between JV/Cole and Whitley/JB/Martin. 

[TexArcher 39061]

I also don't want to trade Tucker.  There's just too much upside there. 

And it's not as if we have an aging team that needs one more veteran piece to make a deep run right now.  We're built to be good for a very long time, and Tucker can be a part of several deep runs.

[Hank Chinaski 6352]

10 hours ago, TexArcher said:

 

Michael Brantley, come on down and hit .295+ with 20 HR and 10 SB for $16 million.

Freaking love this move.

Touche. I love this deal too, didn't think Brantley could be had for less that 3 years. 

[TexArcher 39061]

2 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Touche. I love this deal too, didn't think Brantley could be had for less that 3 years. 

Now we just have to hold our breath on his health, as with Correa.  If we get 150 games each from those guys, we're gonna score a lot of runs.

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

As for a Reddick move, any chance we include him in a deal for Greinke in exchange for taking on slightly more of Grienke's salary? Not sure the D-Backs would go for it, but I'm struggling to see a Reddick deal that is anything more than a salary dump. 

[WBT 20970]

I love the Brantley signing.  We're not trading Tucker.  Why do we need to trade Reddick?

[Fozzz 152]

I don't think Reddick has much, if any, trade value.  He's owed around $12.5M and is projected to provide a little over 1 WAR next season.

[Storm the Field 5366]

 

[formermav43 4625]

Just now, WBT said:

I love the Brantley signing.  We're not trading Tucker.  Why do we need to trade Reddick?

Someone almost certainly has to go, whether Reddick or not.

Right now in the OF you have:

Springer, Reddick, Brantley, Marisnick, Kemp, and Tucker. No way they carry 6 OF on the MLB roster.

Kemp is out of options. Marisnick has one left, but he probably makes the roster for his defense, given that Brantley (and Kemp) are subpar defenders.

Now Brantley could get more playing time at 1B/DH. But then what do you do with White, who is out of options too? Gurriel isn’t in line for as much of a utility role as once projected either with the acquisition of Diaz.

Of course, you can just leave Tucker in AAA, but that’s probably to no one’s benefit. And even with that, there’s still a roster crunch-one guy has to go.

[formermav43 4625]

2 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

 

This sounds more like the Marlins wishful thinking.

[Storm the Field 5366]

Just now, formermav43 said:

This sounds more like the Marlins wishful thinking.

Yeah, I interpret that, coming from Marlins beat writer, more as "Marlins are still asking for Tucker" vs. "Astros are willing to include Tucker."

[Mez2 4048]

love the brantley move and what he can provide to the team offensively, assuming he stays healthy. not so much worried about any defensive liability as we'll have marisnick to come in as needed for defensive help. as mentioned, if reddick is struggling you can slide Tucker to right field as hinch has mentioned to help offset reddick.

that said, I do think tucker is back on the trading block and wouldnt be surprised if we see him moved for JT and we also pull in another starter somewhere in then next few weeks. in jeff luhnow, i trust

[Mez2 4048]

FWIW, Mariners beat writer thinks nelson cruz ends up signing with us. 

[HtownHorn 15229]

8 minutes ago, Mez2 said:

FWIW, Mariners beat writer thinks nelson cruz ends up signing with us. 

Yep, sign Cruz then concentrate on pitching. If we add Brantley and Cruz, there is no need to add Realmuto. Someone has to bat 8/9.

Springer - cf

Altuve - 2b

Bregman - 3b

Correa - ss

Brantley - lf

Cruz - dh

Gurriel - 1b

Reddick - rf

Chirinos - c

That is a damn strong lineup.

[texashorne 1194]

cf: Springer

2b: Altuve

3b: Bregman

SS: Correa

Lf: Brantley

Dh: Cruz

1B: Gurriel

catcher: Chirinos

Rf: Tucker

 

Is that good? 

 

[Mez2 4048]

jesus, the shuffling you can do with that lineup is ridiculous. at any point the 2 hole and 5-9 spots can be shuffled and you wouldn't really notice it.  i do think altuve will slide back into 3 when he's back healthy. 

[texashorne 1194]

2 minutes ago, Mez2 said:

jesus, the shuffling you can do with that lineup is ridiculous. at any point the 2 hole and 5-9 spots can be shuffled and you wouldn't really notice it.  i do think altuve will slide back into 3 when he's back healthy. 

Imagine the lineup if Tucker does what we all think Tucker will do. Holy crap. 

 

[Mez2 4048]

Just now, texashorne said:

Imagine the lineup if Tucker does what we all think Tucker will do. Holy crap. 

 

and we get bryce harper!!

[formermav43 4625]

They need another SP much more than another bat. 

[WBT 20970]

1 hour ago, formermav43 said:

Someone almost certainly has to go, whether Reddick or not.

Right now in the OF you have:

 Springer, Reddick, Brantley, Marisnick, Kemp, and Tucker. No way they carry 6 OF on the MLB roster.

Kemp is out of options. Marisnick has one left, but he probably makes the roster for his defense, given that Brantley (and Kemp) are subpar defenders.

 Now Brantley could get more playing time at 1B/DH. But then what do you do with White, who is out of options too? Gurriel isn’t in line for as much of a utility role as once projected either with the acquisition of Diaz.

 Of course, you can just leave Tucker in AAA, but that’s probably to no one’s benefit. And even with that, there’s still a roster crunch-one guy has to go.

I see Kemp, Marisnick, or White all as the odd man (men) out way before Reddick.  They have some modicum of trade value due to being cheap and controllable for years to come.

Edited December 18, 2018 by WBT

[kevwun 16437]

Two years of Realmuto is not worth Tucker.  Neither his hitting or defensive ability justify giving up that much.

[Storm the Field 5366]

I don't see any reason Reddick can't bounce back this year.

In 2017 he posted an outlier high OPS of .847, followed by 2018 was an outlier low of .718, well below his career average around .760. It was his worst offensive season since 2013.

What's crazy is that he played exactly the same amount of games and his K/BB was pretty much identical. It was the BABIP that nose-dived, from .339 - .258. That's likely due to a large drop in balls barreled up (2017 he hit 130 line drives, just 78 in 2018.)

He'll only be 32 this year, so it's not like he should be physically fading. I'd expect a reversion to at least a .750 OPS and ~2.5 bWAR. 

[Scraps 13799]

2017 was a career year. He isn't doing that ever again

 

I'm not even convinced he will get to 750 OPS

[Mez2 4048]

Reddick is owed $26 million over the next two years, I think that contract is manageable in a salary dump in the right scenario, especially if we toss in extra surplus of whatever we have. 

[henrygandorf 29225]

love the brantley move, not sure what we'll do with the batting order.

remember when reddick was playing well and we hit him in the 2 slot and it lengthened the lineup?  i could see a scenario with brantley in that same role since he's such a high contact guy - i can see us wanting to mix up lefty-righty.

also, depending on how springer is looking, it might be time to get him out of the leadoff spot...but i doubt we make that move.

springer-brantley-tuve-bregman-correa could work out.  obviously cruz would slot perfectly at 6, but yuli works there as well.  need to get his power numbers back up.  love tucker hitting 8/9 with the catcher.

i'm also in the camp of not trading tucker for jtr.  if we wouldn't trade him for some of these other guys the last couple years, trading him for a good catcher with 2 years remaining makes no sense.  i would like to see us resign maldonado or someone we trust on the defensive side and hit him 8/9.

[Scraps 13799]

Meh.

Carlos Beltran is taking a job with the #Yankees as special asst to the GM. @Feinsand 1st

[Scraps 13799]

Reddick is the guest on Astroline tonight

 

#Awkward

 

 

[Mez2 4048]

i think Yuli had a nice comeback year - at least power-wise - his hamate bone injury really hampered him from the beginning on the season and don't think it got right during the season

[David Dennison 19529]

 

[henrygandorf 29225]

he better not be getting engaged or some shit.

[MAROON 446]

9 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

 

probably just Bregs announcing which Hooters girl he will be taking out for New Years Eve