2018-2019 Astros Offseason Thread

[henrygandorf 29194]

51 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Seriously doubt it happens, but would be seriously cool if it did. 

it would be fun just to have sox and yankee fans say, "well, that's not good" for the next several weeks.

[Limp Brisket 546]

18 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

it would be fun just to have sox and yankee fans say, "well, that's not good" for the next several weeks.

Or 173 games.

[runthebone 8024]

I've been hoping for Harper as it's been dragging on and on.  It's not my money, right?

[henrygandorf 29194]

1 hour ago, runthebone said:

I've been hoping for Harper as it's been dragging on and on.  It's not my money, right?

the longer it drags on, the better chance of something 'unexpected' happening.

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

It seems unlikely just because that kind of money could probably be used to extend Springer or Bregman or Correa. 

But...that assumes that they're open to extending (Bregman seems most likely, as he makes the least and is furthest from FA). Correa has indicated that he isn't.

And...perhaps the club really does seize the day and go all-in on the next few seasons, knowing that we aren't likely to extend all of those guys and keep them together for too much longer. 

The longer the offseason drags on...at what point does Harper say "screw it" and sign a 3-year deal for $110 million and then try free agency again when he's 29 and there's a new CBA?

Again, it's unlikely, but if you squint you can see the possibility...

[Mez2 4025]

i'm still sticking to my "harper to the astros" prediction! 

[Mez2 4025]

(it's not happening)

[runthebone 8024]

Assessing which 'mystery teams' may actually be in on Harper and/or Machado
Jan. 17: As the offseason drags on and Bryce Harper and Manny Machado remain unsigned, the door will stay open for more teams to jump into the race, especially if there's a sense that the price to sign them may not be as high as many initially expected.

In an article for ESPN+ (subscription required) on Thursday, Buster Olney listed some of the so-called "mystery teams" that are drawing speculation from industry insiders and broke down each club's chances of signing one of this offseason's superstar free agents.

Olney is hearing the Astros, Giants and Braves being mentioned as potential suitors for Harper; the Yankees and Padres as possible contenders for Machado; and the Rangers, Twins and Cubs as three teams that could sign either player.

Olney thinks most of these clubs will continue to sit out of the proceedings, but he could see Houston entering the mix for Harper if the slugger is willing to accept a shorter-term deal with opt-outs. The Astros nearly acquired Harper before the July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline this past season, but the Nationals backed out. As Olney points out, the team is in win-now mode, especially with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole set to enter free agency next offseason.

"They've got the money, for sure," said one rival official.

The Astros seemingly have their starting outfield set after signing Michael Brantley, but Harper would represent a massive upgrade in right field over Josh Reddick, who recorded a .718 OPS in 2018.

Olney concedes that it might seem odd to have the Yankees as a potential mystery team for Machado, as they were one of three clubs -- along with the Phillies and White Sox -- to meet with him in December. But with Troy Tulowitzki and DJ LeMahieu in the fold, New York is not aggressively pursuing Machado at this time. That could change, though, if Machado's asking price falls into a range that the Yankees are more comfortable with.

[Scraps 13570]

I'd give Harper a 3 yr 130-140 mil contract.  Go win 2 or 3 world series, and let him walk when his time ends and he can still go get a big deal afterwards.  Then we can sign our own dudes.  

But it's not my money 

[Southernthunder 38]

Imagine the crowds at MMP if Harper signs here. They’re already big but damn those tickets would be gold! 

[YChang 3455]

Harper on the Stros would not suck. Make it so. 

[MAROON 445]

would be shocked if Harper or any big moves happen.  The Astros already have this team modeled (as does Vegas) to win this division easily. No need to throw money out to win the division by more games.  They will wait until closer to the trade deadline to make a move once the playoff picture is more in focus.  Of course all that changes if the models are wrong or if someone gets injured.

[Mez2 4025]

49 minutes ago, Scraps said:

I'd give Harper a 3 yr 130-140 mil contract.  Go win 2 or 3 world series, and let him walk when his time ends and he can still go get a big deal afterwards.  Then we can sign our own dudes.  

But it's not my money 

along this lines, sign him to a contract that breaks either the largest annual salary or largest ever but have opt out options after the remaining years forever how long of that contract. get creative with it, hell there is such thing as a swellout, so who knows what the fuck these guys are able to do now

[henrygandorf 29194]

2 hours ago, MAROON said:

would be shocked if Harper or any big moves happen.  The Astros already have this team modeled (as does Vegas) to win this division easily. No need to throw money out to win the division by more games.  They will wait until closer to the trade deadline to make a move once the playoff picture is more in focus.  Of course all that changes if the models are wrong or if someone gets injured.

while i totally agree with everything you just said, i love the way the astros are never really content to just sit on their hands.  other teams, or past astros teams, would just say, "we're done."  this team seems to have an attitude almost like a fantasy owner.  they're monitoring every situation to see if it makes sense.  paying harper 10-325 doesn't make sense, so i already know we won't do that.  but a different type of deal is certainly possible with luhnow and crane calling the shots.

[MAROON 445]

13 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

while i totally agree with everything you just said, i love the way the astros are never really content to just sit on their hands.  other teams, or past astros teams, would just say, "we're done."  this team seems to have an attitude almost like a fantasy owner.  they're monitoring every situation to see if it makes sense.  paying harper 10-325 doesn't make sense, so i already know we won't do that.  but a different type of deal is certainly possible with luhnow and crane calling the shots.

agreed.  With the Yankees now making another addition to their bullpen and needing to move some guys to get down to the 25 man roster, I could see them going after Gray - although they might be too late if reports are accurate.

Edited January 17, 2019 by MAROON

[David Dennison 18940]

3 hours ago, Scraps said:

I'd give Harper a 3 yr 130-140 mil contract.  Go win 2 or 3 world series, and let him walk when his time ends and he can still go get a big deal afterwards.  Then we can sign our own dudes.  

But it's not my money 

The problem with this is Bryce Harper has no interest in signing a three year contract.

[Scraps 13570]

The problem with this is Bryce Harper has no interest in signing a three year contract.

He would if you give him enough per year

[David Dennison 18940]

3 minutes ago, Scraps said:

5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

The problem with this is Bryce Harper has no interest in signing a three year contract.

He would if you give him enough per year

He allegedly turned down a ten year $300 million offer from the Nationals.

But maybe he would accept $100 million a year for three years.

Edited January 17, 2019 by David Dennison

[Mez2 4025]

Yanks aren't trading Gray to us. they'll send him to an NL team

Edited January 17, 2019 by Mez2

[Scraps 13570]

 

11 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

He allegedly turned down a ten year $300 million offer from the Nationals.

And that deal sucked.  You have to front load it....give him opt outs and a no trade clause.  This goes for any team not specifically the Astros.  

[mycox 582]

3 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

while i totally agree with everything you just said, i love the way the astros are never really content to just sit on their hands.  other teams, or past astros teams, would just say, "we're done."  this team seems to have an attitude almost like a fantasy owner.  they're monitoring every situation to see if it makes sense.  paying harper 10-325 doesn't make sense, so i already know we won't do that.  but a different type of deal is certainly possible with luhnow and crane calling the shots.

And they will have a ROY contender in the outfield. 

[TexArcher 37989]

9 hours ago, MAROON said:

would be shocked if Harper or any big moves happen.  The Astros already have this team modeled (as does Vegas) to win this division easily. No need to throw money out to win the division by more games.  They will wait until closer to the trade deadline to make a move once the playoff picture is more in focus.  Of course all that changes if the models are wrong or if someone gets injured.

I think this is exactly right.  If we make a big splash at all, it'll be during the season.

[Mez2 4025]

I still see us doing something relatively big this off-season, likely middle rotation guy with upside potential, maybe Marcus stroman?

[formermav43 4606]

I think they’re more likely to sign another attempt at a reclamation project to slot at the back of the rotation, the next Charlie Morton, than to trade for someone. I don’t know who, maybe Gio Gonzalez.

[TexArcher 37989]

31 minutes ago, Mez2 said:

I still see us doing something relatively big this off-season, likely middle rotation guy with upside potential, maybe Marcus stroman?

Sign me up for that.  I think Stroman has a lot of untapped upside.

[HtownHorn 14755]

11 hours ago, Scraps said:

I'd give Harper a 3 yr 130-140 mil contract.  Go win 2 or 3 world series, and let him walk when his time ends and he can still go get a big deal afterwards.  Then we can sign our own dudes.  

But it's not my money 

Front load the contract, with an opt out after year 3 or 4.

[UTexasFight 9517]

Isn’t Stroman a bit of an ass? nttiawwt
Or maybe I’m just giving undue weight to his crying about his arbitration results last year

He and Blue Jays came to terms at $7.4M with much less fanfare this year
Astros and Blue Jays do love to trade with the other.

On Gio, I’ve been thinking about his name for a while now. Right now Framber is the only lefty that could reasonably make the opening day staff (starter or otherwise) and I don’t see that sticking.
FWIW, Gio is also currently the same age as CFM was when we signed him two years ago. You could do a lot worse than, say, a 2 yr, $25M deal. Or if the market stays soft, offer a lower base and kick in some incentives like the CFM deal. He is a Boras client though.

[Victor Lazlo 1777]

12 hours ago, Scraps said:

I'd give Harper a 3 yr 130-140 mil contract.  Go win 2 or 3 world series, and let him walk when his time ends and he can still go get a big deal afterwards.  Then we can sign our own dudes.  

But it's not my money 

Wait. You would pay him $45 Million a year to play outfield for the Astros?

No fucking way that’s cost effective. No way, no how. 

[runthebone 8024]

Who gives a crap about cost effective?  $140m of Crane's money for another World Series=totally worth it. 

[Scraps 13570]

Who gives a crap about cost effective?  $140m of Crane's money for another World Series=totally worth it. 

Yep

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

8 hours ago, Victor Lazlo said:

Wait. You would pay him $45 Million a year to play outfield for the Astros?

No fucking way that’s cost effective. No way, no how. 

The going rate for free agents is generally ~ $9 million per win. Paying Harper $45 million annually over the next 3 years is essentially projecting him to be a 5-WAR player at age 26, 27 and 28. That is about what I would expect from him, and there's a terrific chance he produces more value than that. It almost certainly won't happen, because he is likely looking for more total dollar on this contract (and thus, more years), but I'd pay him 3 years/ $135 million. 

Granted, $9 million per win is obscene...but that has been about the going rate. Perhaps that number is coming down with the "new market" - but it isn't crazy to pay Harper that much for only 3 years, given his age. 

Edited January 18, 2019 by Hank Chinaski

[Storm the Field 5297]

Karbach's new release coming out this Spring:

[huge 3795]

Shame I won't be buying any

#nosellouts

[clapclapclap 9000]

If they (over)pay what it takes to get Harper, I'd guess the reasons would be more than just the on the field x's & o's.  Marketing, does it get us more feature games during the season, does it expand our fan base, does it pick up more bandwagon fans nationally? (pun no intended...)  For smaller market fans that hate teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs, the Astros are an attractive 'outsider' to pull for in the post-season.  Not sure how douche hair helps that outsider image, but I'm just a simple man.

Edited January 18, 2019 by clapclapclap

[Mez2 4025]

11 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

Isn’t Stroman a bit of an ass? nttiawwt
Or maybe I’m just giving undue weight to his crying about his arbitration results last year

He and Blue Jays came to terms at $7.4M with much less fanfare this year
Astros and Blue Jays do love to trade with the other.

On Gio, I’ve been thinking about his name for a while now. Right now Framber is the only lefty that could reasonably make the opening day staff (starter or otherwise) and I don’t see that sticking.
FWIW, Gio is also currently the same age as CFM was when we signed him two years ago. You could do a lot worse than, say, a 2 yr, $25M deal. Or if the market stays soft, offer a lower base and kick in some incentives like the CFM deal. He is a Boras client though.


 

stroman pitches with a chip on his shoulder, can rub guys the wrong way, IMO. i'd be happy with him or even Gio if we're looking for a possible stop gap until the trade deadline. 

[Mez2 4025]

56 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Karbach's new release coming out this Spring:

fuck these bitches. 

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

1 hour ago, clapclapclap said:

If they (over)pay what it takes to get Harper, I'd guess the reasons would be more than just the on the field x's & o's.  Marketing, does it get us more feature games during the season, does it expand our fan base, does it pick up more bandwagon fans nationally? (pun no intended...)  For smaller market fans that hate teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs, the Astros are an attractive 'outsider' to pull for in the post-season.  Not sure how douche hair helps that outsider image, but I'm just a simple man.

Not to mention that the calculus on improving a club that is already very good impacts how much a player is worth. For example, the Astros will keep the band together (offensively, anyway) for a few more years before the core will likely begin to disperse (or turn over). Harper for the next 3 years figures to be of more value to the Astros than he would to, say, the Marlins. If he is worth 3 more wins than Reddick, those 3 extra wins could be the difference between a wild card and division title, or (more likely) home-field advantage in the playoffs (and, obviously, playoff production). 

[Snake Diggity 4626]

I still think Harper ends up doing a $160M/4yr deal with a $200M/10yr player option.  Gets him the longest, biggest, and highest AAV ever along with a chance to re-enter free agency while still in his prime.  Doesn’t hamstring the franchise in the out years.

[Amos Moses 795]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

I still think Harper ends up doing a $160M/4yr deal with a $200M/10yr player option.  

Why would a team do that?  The first part I get.  But that 10 year deal seems it would have a really good chance to indeed hamstring the franchise, especially if the option is 100% guaranteed for the full term of years.  Yikes. 

5 for $200MM.  Team option for 10 year deal after that, average salary of $25MM per year, only the first 5 years are guaranteed then year to year, no trade clause waived.   Boom.

[Scraps 13570]

the option has to be a player option so that Harper has insurance in case he sucks.  Boras isn't dumb.  

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

Today's Fangraphs chat:

10:43

Spaceman: Astros will start 2019 without McCullers, Keuchel and Morton. So far they did nothing to replace them. Are they playing the same game as the Indians saying : “We’ll take that division easily so there’s no need to improve anymore”?

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: That’s part of it. They also just have this overabundance of resources on account of their unparalleled player development. McHugh slides back into the rotation, where he belongs. James emerged last season as a wonderful pitcher. And then you get to mix and match between Peacock, Whitley, Valdez, Bukauskas…the Astros are very good, and I doubt they’re particularly worried about their pitching

[Amos Moses 795]

3 minutes ago, Scraps said:

the option has to be a player option so that Harper has insurance in case he sucks.  

That's what the money is for!!!!

Edited January 18, 2019 by Amos Moses
brain fart

[UTexasFight 9517]

Today's Fangraphs chat:

10:43

Spaceman: Astros will start 2019 without McCullers, Keuchel and Morton. So far they did nothing to replace them. Are they playing the same game as the Indians saying : “We’ll take that division easily so there’s no need to improve anymore”?

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: That’s part of it. They also just have this overabundance of resources on account of their unparalleled player development. McHugh slides back into the rotation, where he belongs. James emerged last season as a wonderful pitcher. And then you get to mix and match between Peacock, Whitley, Valdez, Bukauskas…the Astros are very good, and I doubt they’re particularly worried about their pitching

Mr Burns excellent.gif

[Snake Diggity 4626]

24 minutes ago, Amos Moses said:

Why would a team do that?  The first part I get.  But that 10 year deal seems it would have a really good chance to indeed hamstring the franchise, especially if the option is 100% guaranteed for the full term of years.  Yikes. 

5 for $200MM.  Team option for 10 year deal after that, average salary of $25MM per year, only the first 5 years are guaranteed then year to year, no trade clause waived.   Boom.

10-14 years from now, $20M won’t be squat.  Tying up 7% of the payroll in 1 player is no big deal.  But odds are if Harper produces, he will opt out.  And if he doesn’t opt out it will be because he sucked; but I can’t imagine even under the worst case scenario that he wouldn’t at least be a decent DH.  Even Pujols has been a roughly league average hitter, and his contract is not the reason the Angels aren’t good.  As awful as Pujols has been recently, he’s been worth 19+ fWAR over his age 30-38 seasons (my hypothetical Harper $200M/10yr player option would cover age 30-39), which at $8M/war is ~$150M.  Actually think there is a lot more risk in the $160M/4yr part, because you’re tying up a ton of payroll which would probably restrict Houston a great deal thru the rest of their current competitive window.

Edited January 18, 2019 by Snake Diggity

[thetruth 149]

For those wanting Sonny Gray:

 

Jon Heyman‏Verified account @JonHeyman

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Yankees, Reds are finalizing the Sonny Gray trade. infield prospect Shed Long and a draft pick are expected to go to NY, and possibly a 3rd lesser piece. Long is an excellent hitter, fair defender. Just need to cross t’s, dot i’s (ie medicals, 40-man considerations, etc.)

[runthebone 8024]

Shed Long is his porn name

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

Quote

The inaugural Hall of Fame class will be large and will include Astros players who have had their numbers retired -- Nolan Ryan, Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Jimmy Wynn, Jose Cruz, Mike Scott, Larry Dierker, Don Wilson and Jim Umbricht -- and those who have been honored on the Walk of Fame along Texas Ave. -- former players Joe Morgan, Bob Aspromonte, Joe Niekro, J.R. Richard and Shane Reynolds and broadcasters Gene Elston and Milo Hamilton.

Edited January 21, 2019 by Seasick Sailor

[David Dennison 18940]

Shane Reynolds was a fine pitcher and love him as a Longhorn, but the Astros Hall of Fame? Really?

[Johnny Sack 8397]

9 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Shane Reynolds was a fine pitcher and love him as a Longhorn, but the Astros Hall of Fame? Really?

Yeah.  I like Shane a lot personally.  But Jesus.  When we had good staffs he was our #3.  

[Scraps 13570]

I guess 100 wins in Stros Uni is the checkpoint

 

 

Not sure why Oswalt isn’t in this