2018-2019 Astros Offseason Thread

[Mitch Hedberg 2117]

Don't know what the baseball nerds see in this guy but unless they're trying to save 5 million to put toward Goldy or another big bat, I don't like it. My love hate with Luhnow is very real. Hopefully I will love him again after the winter meetings. Have to believe there is a means to an end. The only upside I see is the Crawford boxes may play well for Chirinos as a RH pull hitter. 

[Storm the Field 5366]

Couple thoughts on Chirinos:

1. Probably the only option among the catcher FA's that could be had on an affordable, 1-year deal. Grandal & Ramos probably looking for commitments of at least 3/30. And obviously we weren't willing to pay Marlins asking price for JTR.

Tells me we're willing to settle for a makeshift platoon at C in order to prioritize other off-season needs. I'll wait to come to a final judgment until I see what happens between now and Spring Training.

2. Chirinos hits better at MMP than just about anywhere else. Career slash of .254/.368/.556 in 76 PA at the juice box. 

3. I strongly believe that getting better production from 1B/DH/LF is offseason priority 1B. Improving at least 2 of those 3 positions is only slightly less important than getting a #3 starter. The 2018 offense was considerably inferior to 2017, but the pitching was excellent enough to carry us.

I don't for a second think Luhnow believes it, or expects any serious Astros fan to believe it, when he says stuff like "always looking to improve the team, but don't feel like we HAVE to make any moves and would be comfortable starting the season with the squad we have now." If we're counting on Yuli, White, and Tucker/Kemp/Marisnick to provide the majority of AB's at those 3 positions, yikes.

[Fozzz 152]

Chirinos' numbers at MMP are meaningless although there could be a little upside in his pulled-FB tendencies.  It may just be a case where many teams, including the Astros, did not appreciate how expensive catchers would be in this market.  

[Mack Tripper 708]

30 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

1. Probably the only option among the catcher FA's that could be had on an affordable, 1-year deal. Grandal & Ramos probably looking for commitments of at least 3/30. And obviously we weren't willing to pay Marlins asking price for JTR.

But why do we need to sign a catcher shitty enough to be willing to sign an affordable 1 year deal?  They have money to spend. I'd much rather have spent a bit more on Maldonado. 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

The Astros Have a New Catcher

By: Jeff Sullivan

I’m going to remind you that, last season, the league-average catcher posted an 84 wRC+. The league-average position player posted a 100 wRC+. By definition, it is always 100. Catchers, by and large, cannot hit. Robinson Chirinos hit pretty well as the Rangers’ regular catcher, notching a 103 wRC+ in his age-34 season. It was his fourth straight year of quality hitting, in a career-high amount of playing time. So it was surprising when the Rangers declined to pick up Chirinos’ $4.5-million option for next year. The Rangers aren’t going anywhere, so it hardly matters in the grand scheme of things, but Chirinos was more good than bad, and $4.5 million isn’t much.

Chirinos now has found a new home, and he’s remaining in Texas. The Astros have signed him to a one-year deal, and although I don’t know the terms, let’s assume it’s around $4 – 5 million. The exciting thing for the Astros is that Chirinos makes them better. What’s less exciting is that Chirinos isn’t J.T. Realmuto.

 

 

As Kiley McDaniel noted earlier, the potential Realmuto trade market has been busy, and not necessarily by keeping in touch with the Marlins. The Astros looked like a fit for Realmuto, and now they have Chirinos. The Rays looked like a fit for Realmuto, and now they have Mike Zunino. The Nationals looked like a fit for Realmuto, and now they have Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki. The Braves looked like a fit for Realmuto, and now they have Brian McCann.

Granted, there are other possible suitors, like the Mets, the Dodgers, the Brewers, and the Rockies, to list a few. Realmuto remains in demand. And the Astros might not have even closed the door, since, in theory, they could trade for Realmuto by including Max Stassi. This just complicates things for them a little bit, since last season, Realmuto’s backups totaled 208 plate appearances, which was about half of Chirinos’ total. Either Chirinos would have to accept reduced playing time, or Realmuto, in Houston, would have to play more first base. Let’s say the Astros are less likely than they were yesterday to make the splash. I don’t think that’s controversial.

So the Marlins will stay busy on the phone, while remembering that the list of free-agent catchers includes Yasmani Grandal, Wilson Ramos, Jonathan Lucroy, and Martin Maldonado. Francisco Cervelli and Russell Martinare other trade candidates. Realmuto is possibly or probably the best catcher in the game, but trading is never as easy as you’d think.

 

Back to Chirinos and the Astros. Garrett Stubbs is in the upper minors, but at the big-league level now, the two catchers are Chirinos and Stassi. Chirinos is 34, and Stassi is 27, and last year Stassi finished with a 100 wRC+ of his own. On the other hand, over the final four months, Stassi managed a wRC+ of just 64, his power evaporating. On the other other hand, there’s the other side of the game. According to both Baseball Info Solutions and Baseball Prospectus, Stassi last year was one of the game’s best defensive catchers. According to the same sources, Chirinos last year was one of the game’s worst defensive catchers. Maybe some of that just reflects that Stassi caught a good pitching staff and Chirinos caught a bad one, but Stassi has a pretty clear edge behind the plate, even if the hitting is unpolished.

Something more fun for Chirinos and his new employer: Chirinos is a right-handed hitter, and, half the time, he’ll be hitting in Minute Maid Park. You know what looms in left field in Minute Maid Park. Over the past three seasons, more than 300 hitters have hit at least 500 batted balls. Here are the ten highest rates of pulled batted balls in the air:

 

Pulled Air Balls, 2016 – 2018

Player	Batted Balls	Pulled, Air	Rate(%)
Brandon Moss	513	150	29.2%
Rhys Hoskins	538	149	27.7%
Mike Zunino	553	153	27.7%
Matt Carpenter	1161	319	27.5%
Robinson Chirinos	514	140	27.2%
Salvador Perez	1185	317	26.8%
Mike Napoli	633	169	26.7%
Joey Gallo	551	147	26.7%
Brian Dozier	1391	362	26.0%
Curtis Granderson	988	249	25.2%

It’s a small thing, but it’s something. Chirinos hits the ball in the air, and he likes to pull it. By doing that, he might now hit his way into some lucky home runs. That is, he might gain particular value while hitting in Houston, above and beyond how other righties might benefit. It’s one of those neat little statistical quirks. I don’t know if the Astros factored it into their decision, but Chirinos hits with an appropriate profile.

This wasn’t Tuesday’s big news. If anything, given that Chirinos isn’t Realmuto, Astros fans could be disappointed. But there’s still plenty of offseason to go. Plenty of significant moves to be discussed. And several months on down the line, perhaps Chirinos will win a ballgame by lifting a lazy fly over the left-field fence. Some would call it a fluke. Others would laugh at the notion.

[formermav43 4625]

29 minutes ago, Mack Tripper said:

But why do we need to sign a catcher shitty enough to be willing to sign an affordable 1 year deal?  They have money to spend. I'd much rather have spent a bit more on Maldonado. 

You’d be paying more for a worse player, unless you value Maldonado’s defensive superiority that much more than Chirinos’s better bat. The overall numbers disagree in the past and so do the projections for this year.

I’d prefer they allocate that money to spend elsewhere. This seems like a smart, low cost move. I much prefer it to mortgaging the future for Realmuto. Unless this is literally the last move they make this offseason, I think all the angst is misplaced.

[Fozzz 152]

Over several seasons, he's been one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball (around 25 runs worse than Stassi in 2018 under BP's FRAA metric), and he has an 90 wRC+ steamer projection for next season, which is decent for a catcher but nothing special.  I think there are reasonable grounds to question this acquisition, but we will see what other signings/trades are made.

Edited December 5, 2018 by Fozzz

[formermav43 4625]

7 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Over several seasons, he's been one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball (around 25 runs worse than Stassi in 2018 under BP's FRAA metric), and he has an 90 wRC+ steamer projection for next season, which is decent for a catcher but nothing special.  I think there are reasonable grounds to question this acquisition, but we will see what other signings/trades are made.

I’m not jumping up and down with excitement over it or anything, but I think it’s a fine move, under the assumption that there’s more to come.

[David Dennison 19529]

1 hour ago, Mack Tripper said:

But why do we need to sign a catcher shitty enough to be willing to sign an affordable 1 year deal?  They have money to spend. I'd much rather have spent a bit more on Maldonado. 

Maldonado was garbage in the playoffs.

[Mack Tripper 708]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Maldonado was garbage in the playoffs.

Indeed. 

[Mez2 4048]

4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Maldonado was garbage in the playoffs.

he just let another ball get by him

[Fudge Nuggets 19453]

The success or lack of will be more dependent on Correa than any free agent signing.  Need him to nut up and stop getting hurt so we can wreck shit.

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

Cards get Goldy.

[Rockethorn1978 6205]

So are we planning on getting anyone or just meh roster fillers? any other words we won't see any splash signings or trades?

[Mez2 4048]

fuck - that sucks. 

[Smax 3800]

5 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Cards get Goldy.

booooo

[Pablo 500]

damn, that stings

[formermav43 4625]

22 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

So are we planning on getting anyone or just meh roster fillers? any other words we won't see any splash signings or trades?

The Cole trade was in mid-January.

Chill.

[David Dennison 19529]

Just now, formermav43 said:

The Cole trade was in mid-January.

Chill.

Also, these teams know who we aren't willing to part with.

The Astros do not feel like Goldschmidt is worth losing Tucker or Whitley. That puts us in a bind when it comes to trades.

[LebongJames 1921]

The Cardinals offer was quantity over top tier quality. I like the trade for STL quite a bit.

[LebongJames 1921]

I think Luhnow is making a play for Harper.

[BurntOrangeBlooded15 1707]

I just read an article on Harper. 

 

Broke it down as this basically:

sign Harper for 10-350 leaving the Astros with roughly 35-40 mil left

sign Grandal/Ramos for 12-15

Trade Tucker package for ace (named Syndergaard) 

Sign another lower level starter (named Lance Lynn) 

 

lineup would be 

Springer CF

Altuve 2nd

Bregman 3rd

Harper LF

Correa SS

Grandal/Ramos C

White DH

Yuli 1st

Reddick RF

 

With a rotation of 

Verlander

Cole

Syndergaard

Lynn/ McHugh/ Morton/ James for last 2 spots 

 

Edited December 5, 2018 by BurntOrangeBlooded15

[Scraps 13799]

Sign Cruz, Brantley, Morton and lets fucking roll

[henrygandorf 29225]

can't see our guys betting on a harper deal making sense financially.

[The Dog 44854]

We’re not going to get that douchebag Harper.

[LebongJames 1921]

I think you could structure a deal for 10 years but have an opt out clause after year 4.

10/350 opt out when he is 30. Can sign another big contract if he wants. He would only be 36 at the end of 10 years but he could sign another 10 year at 30

[TonyTexas 10754]

Sounds like Eovaldi might be resigning with Boston. Speculation is 4/$68M

[Fudge Nuggets 19453]

Jeesh the good news just keeps rolling in.

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Jeesh the good news just keeps rolling in.

Yes it does:

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19453]

20 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Yes it does:

 

I like the guy, but for our chances to win this year I hope he gets rocked.

[Scraps 13799]

Eovaldi hype is overrated

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

Eovaldi might be over-hyped, but our 3-5 in our rotation is pretty shaky at this point. Resigning Charlie has to be a priority, and we probably need to look at the trade market for at least one more SP. 

Edited December 6, 2018 by Seasick Sailor

[David Dennison 19529]

25 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Eovaldi might be over-hyped, but our 3-5 in our rotation is pretty shaky at this point. Resigning Charlie has to be a priority, and we probably need to look at the trade market for at least one more SP. 

Dallas Keuchel is available.

[formermav43 4625]

49 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Eovaldi might be over-hyped, but our 3-5 in our rotation is pretty shaky at this point. Resigning Charlie has to be a priority, and we probably need to look at the trade market for at least one more SP. 

More like 4-5. McHugh is criminally underrated, he’ll slot back in without missing a beat.

[tx 3 putt 78675]

Can we get keuchel for less than evoldi ?

[tx 3 putt 78675]

Im pretty excited to see what the Young arms come can do with  that #5 spot. One of them will step up 

[David Dennison 19529]

4 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Can we get keuchel for less than evoldi ?

I'm interested to see what the market thinks Dallas is worth.

[Mez2 4048]

5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Im pretty excited to see what the Young arms come can do with  that #5 spot. One of them will step up 

i am too, but we need a reliable starter who can throw anywhere from 150-200 quality innings over the duration of a season. 

offseason sucks

[runthebone 8374]

34 minutes ago, Mez2 said:

i am too, but we need a reliable starter who can throw anywhere from 150-200 quality innings over the duration of a season. 

offseason sucks

Like a Mike Fiers?

[WBT 20970]

5 minutes ago, runthebone said:

Like a Mike Fiers?

nontendered by the A's

[Fozzz 152]

2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Can we get keuchel for less than evoldi ?

No.

[Hank Chinaski 6352]

20 hours ago, Scraps said:

Sign Cruz, Brantley, Morton and lets fucking roll

Give me McCutchen instead of Brantley and I'm in. 

[Storm the Field 5366]

Interesting:

 

[Rimbo 27006]

George H.W. Bush, the Astros fan, gets in a parting shot at the Texas Rangers

Quote

That Ryan attended the service is not surprising. How he was listed was: “Baseball Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan of the Houston Astros (and other lesser teams).”

 

Edited December 6, 2018 by Rimbo

[Scraps 13799]

 

Among several options #Rays have explored to add a starting pitcher, they've expressed interest and had initial conversations with free-agent RHP Charlie Morton, most recently with #Astros.

 

[Storm the Field 5366]

Real blockbuster relevation here:

 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

 

[TonyTexas 10754]

As most of you know, I’m a huge Astros cheerleader but I’m a little worried . There have been big brain drain in the front office, scouting and analytics. I’m unclear on where Crane wants the payroll this year. Starting pitching, at this moment, looks to be going from a strength to a concern. Catching is a black hole. I welcome anyone who can talk me off the ledge.

 

[Storm the Field 5366]

Uhh, the top of our rotation is still elite. Bullpen pretty much all returns. Best IF in baseball. We're gonna win the division.

[Scraps 13799]

Its December 6th. Chill the F out.